Features
A Pathfinder Perspective: Sri Lanka no choice but to Restructure External Debt
Has the time come to consider seriously the merits of restructuring the government’s external debt obligations? The Sri Lankan authorities have indicated that they are in the process of negotiating inflows to meet the country’s immediate foreign exchange requirements. However, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether there would be sufficient inflows to meet the acute dollar illiquidity over the medium-term.
Companies and even families, restructure their debt when foreseeable future earnings become insufficient to repay debts, while maintaining their financial viability. The same applies to countries. Over the years, a number of countries have restructured their debt and the pandemic is pushing others to follow suit. Has Sri Lanka reached that point when it would be advantageous to restructure its external debt? What are the costs and benefits of doing so? If debt restructuring is a credible option, how one would go about it?
Should Sri Lanka restructure its external debt?
Foreign revenues in the next couple of years are extremely unlikely to be suffucuent to service external debt obligations, while supporting the essential foreign exchange (Forex) requirements of the economy. Known external debt repayments amount to USD26 billion over the next five years. It is unrealistic to expect to repay about USD 5 billion per year, particularly in the next 12-24 months, when foreign inflows are unlikely to increase on the scale necessary to service debt and finance imports necessary to meet essential needs and support the growth of the economy, particularly as the downgrading of Sri Lanka’s sovereign rating has excluded it from international capital markets. Countries protect access to these markets scrupulously to have the capacity to roll-over debt and avoid such a predicament.
It is noteworthy that the following Business Chambers have jointly issued a statement highlighting the severe problems being faced by their members due to the acute shortage of Forex which has been caused primarily by the combination of the loss of tourism earnings and access to international capital markets: Ceylon Chamber of Commerce, FCCISL, Ceylon National Chamber of Industries, The National Chamber of Commerce of Sri Lanka, The Women’s Chamber of Industry and Commerce, Chamber of Young Lankan Entrepreneurs, The International Chamber of Commerce Sri Lanka, National Chamber of Exporters and the Chamber of the Construction Industry.
Collectively, these Chambers represent almost all sectors of the economy. Their concerns cannot be addressed while there is a diversion of large amounts of Forex from markets to the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) to service external debt. As a result, there is now a strong case for considering debt restructuring to release foreign exchange to meet the needs of businesses and acquire the essential needs of the people, e.g., food, fuel and pharmaceuticals.
The costs and benefits of external debt restructuring.
The most significant disadvantage of restructuring external debt is an immediate loss of access to international capital markets. This is now completely irrelevant for Sri Lanka as market access was lost when the economy was downgraded to a CCC rating. It is now even lower, at CC. As a result, Sri Lanka can no longer borrow in international markets. Another downside is the increase in the risk premium Sri Lanka would need to pay when it is eventually able to regain market access. However, the increased risk premium demanded by markets as a result of the restructuring is likely to be tempered by the impressive commitment Sri Lanka has shown in meeting its obligations thus far. Two International Sovereign Bonds (ISBs) of USD 1 billion each were repaid on time in October 2019 and July 2020, despite having to deplete external reserves, thereby imposing sacrifices on domestic businesses and households. This combined with Sri Lanka’s impeccable debt servicing record to date is likely to contain the increase in the cost of future borrowing when it becomes possible.
Domestic banks have holdings of both ISBs and Sri Lanka Development Bonds (SLDBs). Both these instruments will be impacted by any debt restructuring exercise. Foreign bond holders are extremely unlikely to accept exemption from haircuts of domestic entities, mainly banks, which hold US-denominated debt, issued both abroad and domestically. Hence not only ISBs but also SLDBs will need to be included in the pool of debt to be restructured.
It is important to note that the impact of any haircut will not be as painful as some may fear, since many of the domestic entities have purchased ISBs at an already discounted price in the secondary market. (There would be no such mitigation for SLDBS, which are not a tradeable instrument.) If necessary, the CBSL would need to provide some temporary regulatory forbearance to any domestic bank which experiences capital adequacy challenges due to haircuts imposed on creditors as part of the debt restructuring.
Options for Restructuring
Debt restructuring is a long and complex process. Having delayed and allowed usable reserves to deplete to barely one month’s import cover, it is no longer possible to achieve a soft pre-emptive restructuring. There are three modalities available to restructure debt: reprofiling the principal (extending maturities); modifying coupon (interest) rates; and write-down of principal (haircuts). Given its current circumstances it is unlikely that Sri Lanka could avoid haircuts for its creditors.
It is unrealistic and impractical to expect to restructure external debt without the support of the IMF. Before embarking on an external debt restructuring one needs the IMF to independently validate that Sri Lanka has a strong need to restructure its debt, in order to assure creditors that the Sri Lankan authorities are not being opportunistic. The IMF would also need to validate the proposed medium-term fiscal adjustment path to debt sustainability.
Rescheduling bilateral, commercial and multilateral debt requires different treatments. Bilateral debt rescheduling is negotiated with the Paris Club of creditors. It is not possible to approach the Paris Club without IMF support. China and India are not members of the Paris Club and separate negotiations would be necessary with them. An option is to seek to initiate an informal “Common Framework” approach (approved by the G20 which includes both China and India). It would need to be informal as the “Common Framework” is not available for a middle-income country like Sri Lanka.
This approach would have the advantage of including Sri Lanka’s three major bilateral donors: China, India and Japan. Bilaterals are likely to focus more on stretching maturities. Commercial creditors could be approached once a deal is in place with bilateral donors. Such sequencing can lead to a better deal for the debtor country on the basis of equivalence across all creditors in terms of the rescheduling. In this respect, there is considerable merit in taking soundings from the Japanese Ministry of Finance regarding their suggestions for the terms of the restructuring. Over the years, Japan has proved to be a flexible and generous creditor in this respect.
On Commercial debt, here again, it is exceedingly difficult to proceed without the IMF. Given its current circumstances, the restructuring package for Sri Lanka’s commercial debt is likely to include a combination of stretching maturities; coupon modification and a haircut. Haircuts on repayment of principal should be avoided, if at all possible, as they delay rating improvement and regaining market access. It is likely that it is now too late for Sri Lanka to avoid a haircut for its commercial creditors. It makes little sense to scar the economy and cause hardship to the people in order to pay ISB holders 100 cents in the dollar when most of the bonds outstanding have been discounted by more than 40 percent.
It is not possible to restructure Multilateral debt (i.e., debt owed to the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and the IMF) without a complete suspension of the relationship between Sri Lanka and these institutions. There would be a suspension of all lending activity including project loans. However, the practice has been for to these institutions to provide financing to assist the debtor country to service the payments owed to each of them, once the debt rescheduling package is negotiated.
Appointment of Advisers
It is customary to appoint a financial and a legal adviser at the outset of the restructuring process. The IMF is able to provide a list of potential advisers from which the country concerned can choose.
Pathfinder Perspective – Conclusion
The unsustainability of Sri Lanka’s external debt is the cumulative effect of poor economic management over several decades. The size and persistence of the external financing gap for the foreseeable future makes debt restructuring an urgent priority. It should be possible to negotiate a package which provides three years of breathing space to rebuild Sri Lanka’s economy to earn and attract sufficient foreign inflows to achieve external debt sustainability and place the economy on a path of sustained growth. Nearly 75% of Government external debt is owed to bilateral and commercial creditors, all of which is eligible for rescheduling, thus providing considerable scope for relief from onerous debt repayments. Now that Sri Lanka has lost access to international capital markets and is extremely unlikely to regain it for some years due to its CC rating, there is very little downside and very considerable upside to debt restructuring.
There is now no choice but to restructure our external debt. The positive impact on dollar liquidity will be substantial and could be measured in billions of dollars. It is also timely as the negative social consequences are manifesting themselves in terms of ever-increasing hardships for the people, particularly the poor and vulnerable. It does not seem realistic to count on short term liquidity injections or a reliance on a revival in tourism as well as increased exports, FDI and remittances, to overcome the dollar illiquidity and its negative consequences in the next couple of years. Paying back debt at the expense of scarring the economy and imposing hardships on the people should not be seen as a badge of honour.
This is A Pathfinder Perspective issued by the Pathfinder Foundation can view on https://pathfinderfoundation.org/ Readers’ comments via email to are welcome.
Features
‘There are no private universities in Sri Lanka’ – some considerations for higher education reform
Academics involved in education policy like to say that there is no such thing as a private university in Sri Lanka. The only ‘universities’ in the country are state universities; anything else offering degrees is a private higher education institution (HEI). This position is technically accurate. Yet, in the discourse and imagination of the public, private universities are very real – people teach in them, students register in them, families pay fees, and such degree holders enter job markets in Sri Lanka and outside.
For decades, activists concerned for public higher education have ignored or resisted looking at private HEIs, as if such scrutiny would taint them. Others have worked in both types of institutions, carrying practices from each to the other. The apex body governing state universities, the UGC, has, meanwhile, ignored the concept of conflict of interest and appointed individuals in private higher education in committees and leadership positions. It is unsurprising then that some of the ideologies informing private higher education appear in reform agendas in the state sector.
This is a good time then to consider the varying types of private HEIs around us, and to take a look at some of the issues within them in the hope that higher education reform agendas will include private, as well as state higher education.
What is a ‘private university’?
First, some clarifications. In the public imaginary, a ‘private university’ is typically an institution that provides a foreign or local degree for which the student makes a payment. But this broad classification encompasses a host of diverse institutions and types of degrees which I detail below.
The Non-State Higher Education Division (NSHE) of the Ministry of Education has recognised 295 degrees by 32 institutions. Most of these are private companies and include a handful of established, well-known private HEIs that are ‘university like’. The degrees are local degrees conferred by the institutions accredited by the NSHE Division. While private HEIs conferring local degrees must be accredited by the NSHE Division, there appears to be no legal consequence for not doing so. In addition, there are several permutations of the private degree that miss the net of this Division and the Standing Committee on Accreditation and Quality Assurance (SCAQA) that assists this Division.
For one, degrees conferred by foreign universities offered, via these same private HEIs, are not vetted by the NSHE Division. Secondly, there is a growing plethora of private HEIs which have either no physical presence locally or only a dubious presence. The University Grants Commission has notified the public, through their website, that foreign universities listed in the Commonwealth Universities Yearbook and the World Higher Education Database are recognised, but refrained from giving any other details – which degrees? Offered by what modes? These details are not known. Some of the foreign universities in the lists may be legitimate entities in their own land but the degrees conferred locally, in their name, may not adhere to curriculum or teaching specifications of the NSHE Division or the UGC.
Another troubling phenomenon is the ‘top up degree’, which appears to work on the same principle as that of a pre-paid mobile connection: if I have a Diploma or an HND of a sort, I am eligible to complete a course of study which provides me with a degree, usually from a foreign university. The idea that someone who does not initially qualify for a degree programme should be able to work their way towards one is a progressive notion. This is the concept that open and distance learning (ODL) was based on initially, but which is now sadly exploited. ODL models are expected to provide opportunity for learning for those who may be excluded from traditional learning institutions. In Sri Lanka, however, we have seen ODL become a marketplace offering easy to obtain, for-fee qualifications by institutions with little commitment to superior teaching and learning.
Finally, a perusal of the many types of private HEIs and their varied degrees bring to mind another question – how should the private degrees, provided by state institutions (that are not educational institutions), be regulated? Who should do so?
All of these create a host of problems for the public – for hopeful students and parents and trusting employers. For the higher education sector, recruitment of academic staff, too, has become difficult due to this plethora of ambiguous higher education qualifications, as I discussed in a previous Kuppi article (‘Recruiting academics to state universities’).
Some issues in private HEIs – a bellwether for change in state universities
In this second part of this article, I will discuss some aspects of work in private HEIs – albeit the more established institutions – given that such issues may appear in reform agendas in future.
Across state universities, all permanent staff of a specific category are paid according to the same criteria. The picture is not so clear when it comes to private HEIs since they are different entities legally, typically companies. Private HEIs have salary scales and financial incentives that are different to each other. The more established private HEIs reportedly have attractive renumeration packages, possibly a reason for academics of state universities migrating eagerly to such institutions during sabbatical years and on retirement. This may not of course be the case with other less established, or improperly registered HEIs of which we know little. Academic staff of these more accepted private HEIs seem to value the high financial remuneration they receive (in comparison to state universities) as something that makes their work rewarding.
Attractive remuneration is important to sustain the good life and is at times seen as the institution’s way of encouraging good work. Yet, this has implications for the future of the institution: to continue to deliver on promised financial packages, institutions must continue to have large profit margins. One strategy has been to enroll multiple cohorts of students per year, even up to three or four intakes per year. This can result in exploitative work conditions, since staff must cater to all these cohorts in that same year. If there is inadequate staff, employees are further burdened. On the other hand, if there is a sudden drop in enrolments (degrees can go out of fashion) unexpected layoffs occur. Similar to other sectors that employ short-term contract staff – including state universities – in private HEIs, too, individual teachers, who are on short term contracts that need regular renewal, can feel pressured to work under difficult or exploitative conditions.
At the same time, even in the more established private HEIs, work norms differ from those of state universities in that they include promotional work that keeps the institution’s name in the eye of the public. The Marketing (or similarly named) unit comes up in conversations as one of the most important departments. It appears to weigh in on decision-making related to the number of staff, the amount of re-sits per exams, and other pedagogically important matters. This is a worrying example of how financial rationales interfere with pedagogically or academically sound processes, resulting in problematic results in the classroom. On the plus side, junior colleagues, who had experience in both state and private HEIs, also felt that they faced less harassment in private HEIs – primarily due to the private HEIs ability to take swift action in reported cases of harassment. This is a real indictment on state institutions and their reluctance to address chronic issues of harassment in our universities.
Yet, while we hear much about problems in state universities, we hardly hear of problems that staff in private HEIs face. One rationale for a lack of public expressions by staff is that expressions of discontent might lead to trouble given the importance of reputation for private HEIs. The worry about reputational damage is a growing concern in state universities, too, as evidenced by social media policies and internal conversations on reputational damage, consequent to negative publicity. Institutional worries of reputational damage are harmful in the long run since these impact not only freedom of expression by student and staff, but also research that is possible in and about the education sector.
Some thoughts at the end…
A close look at the private higher education sector is important given its strong presence in the country. Impending reform needs to regulate this diverse array of higher education offerings in the private sector, as well as the state institutions that offer privately-funded options of higher education (a topic for a separate Kuppi on its own). It is time we carefully considered how to build a whole system of higher education out of this broken mess.
Kaushalya Perera is a senior lecturer at the University of Colombo.
Kuppi is a politics and pedagogy happening on the margins of the lecture hall that parodies, subverts, and simultaneously reaffirms social hierarchies.
Features
Ready for solo spotlight
Singer Nish Peiris is set to take the next big step in her music journey.
The talented vocalist, who has been seen and heard in the scene here for a short while, and was also featured with the now-defunct band, Inner Vision, has announced that she will be fully committing to her solo career, after completing her degree this year.
“I’m finishing my degree this year, and after that I’ll be fully committing to my solo music career,” Nish told The Island.
“I’ve already got a few tours lined up for next year, so I’m really excited for what’s ahead.”
Fans, no doubt, will remember Nish for her smooth voice and stage presence, and the good news is that she is now ready to chart her own path and bring new music to audiences at home and abroad.
With tours already planned for 2027, the year 2026 promises to be an exciting year for the young artiste as she steps into the spotlight on her own.
We wish Nish every success in this new chapter!
Features
Exclusive musical evening for Sri Lankans in Toronto
While Sri Lankan music lovers, in Dubai, are eagerly looking forward to being a part of the action on Saturday, 25th July, with Rajiv Sebastian in the limelight, Sri Lankans, in Toronto, Canada, are equally excited and are anxiously awaiting the arrival of Sri Lanka’s famous singer/entertainer Sohan Weerasinghe.
Having done the needful with The X-Periments, the legendary performer has now embarked on an exciting new chapter – a solo career – and Toronto, Canada, will see him do the needful, on Friday, 31st July, 2026, from 8.00 pm to 12.00 am, at the Angus Glen Golf Club.
Reports indicate that it’s a ‘sold out’ event – naturally with Sohan in the spotlight.
Having built his reputation through years of unforgettable performances, and hits that became part of our musical fabric, Sohan is ready to bring his own vision, sound, and stories directly to the audience, in Toronto, Canada, backed by the phenomenal Toronto Ceymphony Live Band.
Says Gamini Hemalal, who has been instrumental in reviving the Sri Lankan entertainment scene, in that part of the world:
“The countdown begins for the most exclusive musical event of the summer! Join us for a premium night of incredible music, elite hospitality, and a lavish buffet as the legendary Sohan Weerasinghe takes the stage live in Toronto!
“This is a high-end event, designed for those who appreciate exceptional entertainment and great food.”
Gamini, who is also a member of the Toronto Ceymphony Live Band, mentioned that it’s going to be an intimate musical evening with the celebrated Sohan Weerasinghe.
From packed auditoriums to intimate shows, Sohan continues to prove why he remains one of Sri Lanka’s most beloved entertainers.
For decades, Sohan Weerasinghe has been a household name in Sri Lankan entertainment.
Known for his captivating smooth voice and charismatic stage presence, Canada will experience it all on Friday, 31st July.
Next on the list of events, Gamini Hemal is working on, is Halloween night and he says “what we plan to do will be very interesting and unique … with a surprise guest star, as well!”
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