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Don’t bank on FTAs with countries like Thailand to boost Sri Lanka’s exports

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Minister of Trade, Commerce, and Food Security, Nalin Fernando, with Phumtham Wechayachai, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Commerce, after signing the Sri Lanka Thailand Free Trade Agreement on 03 Jan, 2024.

by Gomi Senadhira

“In Sri Lanka’s pursuit of transforming into a high-income country by 2048, involving trade negotiations with countries like Thailand, the Sri Lanka Thailand Free Trade Agreement (SLTFTA), was signed ….” (media release by the Presidential Secretariat, 03 February)

Five long years after starting negotiations, the trade ministers of Sri Lanka and Thailand signed what they claimed to be a very ambitious Free Trade Agreement. The negotiations on the FTA, which commenced in July 2018 during the official visit of General Prayut Chan-o-cha, then Prime Minister of Thailand, to Sri Lanka, continued through nine rounds before the agreement was finalised. At this stage, it is difficult to comment comprehensively on this agreement as the text of the agreement is still not available to the public. But it is appropriate and timely to share a preliminary analysis based on available information to initiate an informed discussion on this important agreement.

Given the lacklustre performance in the export sector over the recent years and the government’s inability to take any meaningful steps to reverse the trend, many Sri Lankans may view signing an FTA to boost exports as something to be welcomed. Particularly because of the very grand objectives Sri Lanka hopes to achieve through this FTA (as per information available through media releases), namely,

1. boosting exports from Sri Lanka to Thailand by threefold via the FTA,

2. enhancing access for Sri Lanka’s exports to markets in other ASEAN countries through Thailand’s gateway.

But can we achieve these objectives through this FTA? Or, are those just pipe dreams?

1. The objective to boost exports from the country to Thailand by three folds

In February 2023, after the third round of negotiations between Sri Lankan officials and the Thai delegation, headed by Thailand Trade Negotiations Department’s Director-General Auramon Supthaweethum at a post-Cabinet media briefing Minister Banduala Gunawardena, while justifying the plans to sign a trade agreement (FTA) with Thailand, stated,“Sri Lanka lacks FTAs with countries and that is one of the key reasons why we have not been able to boost our exports over time … and “The objective of the Government is to boost exports from the current $ 550 million to $ 1.5 billion via Sri Lanka and Thailand FTA,”. That was when Sri Lanka was facing its worst currency crisis in history. So, the claim was widely welcomed and given extensive publicity in the newspapers and news websites. However, those who are familiar with Sri Lanka’s exports would have noticed these numbers were far from accurate. Interestingly, before the commencement of the third round of the negotiations, a press release from the Presidential Media Division (PMD) had clearly stated, “… The start of the negotiations will take place against the backdrop of a significant trade imbalance in Thailand’s favour. In 2021, Sri Lanka imported goods from Thailand worth USD 355 million, but only sent USD 59 million to Thailand”. So, the officials at the Presidential Secretariat knew the correct numbers and should have issued a clarification/correction after the news was published. It should have been done promptly because these kinds of announcements send wrong signals, not only to the people of this country but also to our negotiating partners, particularly about professionalism of Sri Lanka’s Trade Negotiators.

Unfortunately, no corrections came from the government and then in May, Minister Gunawardena reiterated, “… the objective of the Government is to boost exports from the current $ 550 million to $ 1.5 billion via Sri Lanka and Thailand FTA.” That was after President Ranil Wickremesinghe had briefed the Cabinet on the progress of the discussions between the two countries.

Why is it that the Cabinet spokesman repeatedly stated “The objective of the Government is to boost exports from the current $ 550 million to $ 1.5 billion via Sri Lanka and Thailand FTA!”, at the post-Cabinet media conferences? We cannot expect the minister to have the trade statistics at his fingertips. So, where did the Cabinet and its spokesman get their numbers from? Was it from a Cabinet memo? Was he (and the Cabinet) misled by some officials in the Presidential Secretariat who wanted an FTA with Thailand at any cost? If the real numbers were presented, some ministers may have questioned the need for an FTA with Thailand, the 37th exporting destination of Sri Lanka. On the other hand, Thailand is the 10th largest exporter in to Sri Lanka. So, some may even ask will such an agreement exacerbate the foreign exchange crisis by increasing the imports from Thailand? However, none of the ministers would object to a trade agreement that would increase exports by one billion US dollars.

Anyway, now that the agreement has been finalised, I hope that the government will explain how Sri Lanka hopes to reach the highly ambitious objective set by our negotiators to boost exports by three times the current exports via the FTA. Not from $ 550 million as the government has finally corrected the numbers. Now, the new (revised) objective is, according to the PMD media release, of 3rd February, “…. tripling the existing bilateral trade value (USD 550 Mn) to USD 1.5 Billion within four years. One of the main objectives of entering into a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Thailand is to enhance market opportunities for Sri Lanka with possible expansion.”

That means the revised objective is triple the existing bilateral trade and not Sri Lanka’s exports within four years. Is it an achievable target within four years? Out of this USD 1,5 billion what would be the Sri Lanka’s share? Or, will it be heavily in favour of Thailand? A study undertaken by the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) last year projected, “Assuming an immediate phasing-out of the existing tariffs, an FTA would increase bilateral trade to USD 619.6 million by 29.1 %. This increase falls short of the ambitious goal of a threefold increase in bilateral trade, at least in the short run.” The report also pointed out that if the existing tariff was immediately phased out Sri Lanka’s exports would increase by $27.6 million and Thailand’s exports would increase by $141.8 million. However, in real negotiations, it doesn’t happen like that. Countries negotiate and sign Free Trade agreements to help open markets and expand opportunities for their exporters in a balanced and mutually beneficial manner.

In 2022, out of Sri Lanka’s total exports to Thailand valued at $57.7 million, precious or semi-precious stones accounted for $33.4 million. Almost all these (precious stones) have duty-free market access in Thailand. Hence, the FTA will not add any additional enhanced market access. So, any export growth has to come from the rest of the basket and any new products that may get duty-free access to Thailand. What are the products our economic operators can export to Thailand under this FTA? What are those products that can add 100 million in additional exports within four years? Who are the exporters undertaken that challenge?

Recently in Bangkok, Ms Supthaweethum announced more realistic but substantial gains for Thailand from the FTA. She projected the Thai economy to expand by 0.02% equivalent to US$ 80 million through expansion of investment and value of Thai exports to Sri Lanka. Thai manufacturing industries and products that would benefits from the agreement would be automotive, fashion, gems, metal, electronics, rubber, pet food and corn. Although details on these projected gains are not available, I believe, most of the gains would come through duty reductions for these products by Sri Lanka. In addition to that Thai finance, insurance, tourism and R&D industries also are expected to benefit from the agreement. However, if Thailand’s economy is to expand by US$ 80 million that would require substantial (a threefold?) increase in Thai exports to Sri Lanka. But at this stage it is difficult to comment on this as we do not have the full text of the agreement.

2. Access markets in other ASEAN countries

The media release by the PMD in January, last year, identified one other objective of the Sri Lankan negotiators, that is,” … from the perspective of Sri Lanka, the negotiations will be aimed at enhancing access to our exports not only in the Thai market but also in markets in other ASEAN countries through Thailand’s gateway.” I cannot understand how this can be achieved through a bilateral FTA between two countries exchanging reciprocal concessions. Does this mean that Sri Lanka also has to open up the market to other ASEAN countries through Thailand’s gateway? How will the Rules of Origin impact such trade? It will be interesting to find out how our negotiators have achieved this objective.

Third time lucky! Or, Finally unlucky?

This is not the first time Sri Lanka and Thailand tried to negotiate an agreement to enhance trade. The attempts were made twice before. The first was to negotiate a preferential trade agreement (PTA). It was initiated when the Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra visited Sri Lanka in 2003 on the invitation of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. I understand those negotiations were abandoned after few rounds as Thailand refused to include products of export interest to Sri Lanka in their concession list in a meaningful manner.

After that a very comprehensive FTA was negotiated with Thailand under the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC). Although it was an agreement between the BIMSTEC members, as the South Asian countries already had preferential trade agreements and India had an FTA with Thailand, the negotiations essentially were between other South Asian members and Thailand. The negotiations which commenced in September 2004, in Bangkok, was largely driven by Thailand. After 20 rounds of negotiations, a comprehensive trade agreement was almost finalised before 2010. During the negotiations, Thailand aggressively pushed for enhanced market access for their products. Unfortunately, Sri Lankan negotiators conceded substantial amount of concessions to Thailand without receiving any significant concessions in return. Thailand kept the limited number of products Sri Lanka was interested on its negative list. As a result, the final draft was heavily in favour of Thailand. Consequently, before moving forward with negotiation any further, during the 2010 – 2011 period, the Department of Commerce carried out an extensive consultation process with local stakeholders.

During those consultations, local manufacturers clearly explained that the impact of the FTA would be highly disadvantageous to the local industries and lobbied strongly against the FTA. Even the export associations did not consider an FTA with Thailand a necessity. They considered the Thai market a difficult market to enter even with tariff concessions. Only the importers (and some officials) lobbied heavily in favour of the agreement. Based on those consultations the Department of Commerce advised the ministry and all other line agencies against signing of the agreement as the objective of signing a trade agreement was to boost Sri Lanka exports in a mutually beneficial manner. At the same time the department managed to renegotiate the agreement to expand the negative list to protect local industries. This was done because there was a possibility of a decision by the government to sign the agreement for “political or religious reasons”. Fortunately, 12 years later that agreement is still at the negotiation table.

$80 million boost for Thailand. How much for Sri Lanka?

After failing twice to get a trade agreement with Sri Lanka, the Thai negotiators have finally managed to overcome the hurdle in their third attempt. What have they achieved? And where does this US$ 80 million come from? And the time-frame? What gains will Sri Lanka secure from the FTA? It is extremely unlikely that total trade also will increase to US$ 1.5 billion in four years. Even if that happens then that increase will be heavily in favour of Thailand. What will be the share of Sri Lanka? But it is difficult to comment as government is yet to share the agreement with the people of this country. Meanwhile, we can consider the IPS prediction of US$ 27.6 million as a more realistic short-term objective. But that type of expansion does not need an FTA. A good customs cooperation arrangement to tackle misinvoicing can increase our (recorded) exports by that amount.

(The writer, a former Director General of Commerce, can be contacted via senadhiragomi@gmail.com.)



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Polarizing rhetoric greets America on its epochal anniversary

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President Donald Trump addresses the public on the occasion of the US celebrating the 250th anniversary of the US Declaration of Independence from Britain.(BBC)

Democratic and progressive opinion in the US and the world over would likely have been further jolted by the divisive rhetoric blared forth by US President Donald Trump on no less an occasion than the 250th anniversary of the US Declaration of Independence from Britain. The world has been placed on notice that what it would be having in the main is aggravated polarization on multiple fronts during what’s left of the Trump tenure.

If the world was expecting positive moves by the Trump administration to bridge divisions, heal rifts and usher in a more harmonious international political order, this is very unlikely to be. Instead, in all probability we would be left with a far more ‘dangerous place to live in’.

Some of the more thought-provoking recent ‘takes’ from President Trump are : ‘A generation after we fought and won the cold war against the menace of communism, there is now a resurgence of the communist menace in our land, including from newcomers to our country who embrace ideas totally opposed to our way of life and our great success.’ ‘We will send them (immigrants) quickly away, and we will continue to build our country bigger and better than ever before.’ ‘We are going to give our country its identity back.’ ‘You can be loyal to Karl Marx or you can be loyal to America. You can be a communist or you can be a patriot. You cannot be both.’

Accordingly, what the world would have in increasing measure going forward are stepped-up attempts to consolidate a white supremacist administration in the US accompanied by a suppression of ethnic, religious and cultural minorities at home along with renewed attempts to spread and consolidate US hegemonism world wide.

The latter project would mainly translate into US military interventions abroad of the Venezuelan type and a persistence if not a resurgence of identity based conflicts globally. Violent reactions internationally to what are seen as attempts by the US to bring recalcitrant sections in particularly the South under white supremacist control will provide the basis for the steadfast presence and spiking of identity politics globally.

Moreover, the path has been paved for stepped-up ethnic, religious and cultural disharmony within the US. A united state is far from possible, given this backdrop. Put simply, it would be a question of steeper political polarization at home and abroad.

The persistent, widespread support for the hard line Islamic regime in Iran locally and globally should serve as an eye-opener for the political decision-makers of the US. Huge crowds at the funerals of Iran’s political leaders could very well be state-orchestrated but they are a pointer to the fact that political Islam is far from on the decline. To the extent to which this is so, the phenomenon could be a hurdle in the path of a stridently expansionist US.

Looking back, it was the consolidation of the Islamic regime in Iran in the late seventies of the last century that, besides proving a major challenge to the unfettered global power expansion of the US and its Western allies, provided the motive force as it were for the proliferation of Islam-based identity politics in particularly the South. This continues to be so.

Going forward, the US would need to figure out how best it could manage the persistent presence of Islamic fundamentalism world wide, and for that matter other forms of identity politics, without drastically losing its global power and influence.

The recent successful challenge by Iran to the US’ efforts to exercise its diktat in West Asia should prove an ‘eye-opener’. In these confrontations both sides were bloodied but Iran proved that it could successfully take on the US militarily. The inference for the US ought to be that projecting its military might in the Middle East in a no-holds-barred fashion would not prove easy.

Arising from the foregoing a foremost policy challenge for the US would be to curb Iranian military power while avoiding another major military confrontation with the Islamic state that would cost the US and the world dearly in particularly economic and material terms. The US would have no choice but to persist with the often flagging West Asian peace effort and to render it fully workable.

Ukraine presents the US with another formidable challenge. As is known, Ukraine is proving no easy ‘push-over’ for Russia, but it is badly in need of more sophisticated Western arms, particularly effective air defense systems, to fully neutralize the Russian invasion. What would the US choose to do; go to Ukraine’s assistance fully or opt not to ruffle and antagonize the Putin regime, with which it is on some cordial terms?

A negotiated solution is best in Ukraine and the Trump administration would do well not to lose sight of this ideal but Russia too should see the need for a diplomatic solution if it is to salvage itself from its military stalemate in Ukraine. The US needs to try being a peace mediator in the latter theatre but if the Russian political leadership fails to opt for peace the US would have no choice but to join the rest of NATO and Europe in continuing to arm Ukraine.

The US would need to take the latter course if the ‘world’s mightiest democracy’ is to remain committed to its founding ideals. If President Trump fails to meet this challenge he would prove that he is nothing more than an ‘empty rhetorician’.

However, it should not come as a surprise to the world if Trump chooses not to strongly back the rest of the West on Ukraine. Domestic and foreign policy are closely intertwined. Since the Trump administration is committed to building a white supremacist state at home, democratic development worldwide has been of the least importance to it.

The Trump administration’s strong affinities to white jingoism would increasingly compel it to opt for a policy of international isolationism. As a result Ukraine could prove unimportant for the US going forward.

Consequently, US-Western Europe friction in particular is only likely to intensify in the days ahead. Coupled with the contentious issues growing out of the persistence of identity politics, the Trump administration’s far-sightedness in managing foreign policy issues would be tested to the fullest. Whether the world would have comparative peace or continued blood-letting would depend crucially on such judiciousness.

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Beyond concrete: Sunela Jayewardene urges Sri Lanka to rediscover an ancient wisdom for a planet in peril

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Sunela / Rishan / Spencer

It was more than a lecture on architecture. It was a challenge to rethink civilisation itself.

Standing before a packed audience at Dilmah by Genesis in Maligawatte, internationally acclaimed environmental architect, author and conservationist Sunela Jayewardene delivered a keynote that transcended blueprints, buildings and urban planning.

Instead, she invited her listeners on an intellectual journey into Sri Lanka’s ancient past, arguing that the answers to some of the world’s gravest environmental crises may already exist within the island’s forgotten ecological wisdom.

Her address, titled “Beyond Concrete: Architecture for the Coexistence of Species,” was at once philosophical, historical and deeply practical. It questioned humanity’s obsession with dominating nature and called for a return to a design ethic rooted in respect, restraint and coexistence.

“The road is actually very simple,” Jayewardene said. “We have simply forgotten it.”

That observation became the defining thread of an afternoon that challenged conventional thinking about architecture and development.

According to Jayewardene, modern society has inherited a worldview shaped largely by colonial values that placed human needs above those of every other living organism.

“Our value system was turned on its head,” she observed. “We accepted a Western way of looking at nature without questioning it. Today we can clearly see the consequences. The world is in crisis. Species are in crisis. Our lifestyles are in crisis.”

She was careful not to romanticise the past, nor was she dismissive of modern science. Instead, she argued that Sri Lanka’s pre-colonial civilisation possessed a sophisticated environmental philosophy that modern planners and architects have largely ignored.

For Jayewardene, environmental architecture is not about fashionable sustainability slogans or cosmetic landscaping.

It begins with humility.

It begins by recognising that humans are only one species among millions sharing the same landscape.

“The built environment should not exist in opposition to nature,” she said. “It should become part of nature.”

One of the most captivating moments of her presentation came when she introduced her own research into the island’s ancient sacred geography.

Using digital mapping and satellite imagery, Jayewardene demonstrated the remarkable alignment of Sri Lanka’s four original Saman Devalayas, whose axes converge on Sri Pada, historically known as Samanthakuta.

The extraordinary precision of these alignments, she argued, raises profound questions about the scientific and surveying capabilities of ancient Sri Lankan civilisation.

“What kind of technology enabled them to achieve this?” she asked the audience.

Her purpose was not to offer speculative answers but to challenge deeply ingrained assumptions that ancient societies lacked scientific sophistication.

“We often underestimate what our ancestors knew,” she said. “Yet the evidence around us tells a very different story.”

That forgotten knowledge, she argued, extended well beyond engineering.

It shaped an entire philosophy of living with the landscape rather than imposing human will upon it.

Displaying photographs from archaeological sites including Ritigala, ancient monasteries and rock pavilions hidden within Sri Lanka’s forests, Jayewardene illustrated how builders carved steps around natural boulders, integrated structures into existing rock formations and preserved the contours of the land.

Modern construction, she suggested, would almost certainly have bulldozed those landscapes into submission.

“Our ancestors honoured the land,” she said. “They accepted the landscape instead of trying to conquer it.”

For Jayewardene, that principle remains the foundation of every project she undertakes.

She described environmental architecture as an exercise in listening rather than commanding.

Every site, she explained, possesses its own identity, ecological history and natural rhythm.

The responsibility of the architect is to understand that identity before attempting to intervene.

“The land tells you what it wants to become,” she said.

Throughout the presentation, one word repeatedly surfaced—context.

Without understanding context, she argued, architecture becomes little more than sculpture.

Good design cannot be copied indiscriminately from one country to another or even from one district to another.

Climate differs.

Rainfall differs.

Vegetation differs.

Wildlife differs.

Culture differs.

Even the stories associated with landscapes differ.

All of these, Jayewardene insisted, must shape architecture.

“When I speak about inhabitants, I don’t mean only human beings,” she explained.

“The birds, insects, reptiles, mammals, trees and every living organism already occupying that land must become part of the design equation.”

This broader understanding forms the basis of what she describes as non-human-centred design—an approach that rejects the notion that cities exist exclusively for people.

Instead, landscapes should provide refuge for biodiversity while simultaneously serving human communities.

It is an idea that resonates strongly at a time when rapid urbanisation continues to erode habitats across Sri Lanka.

Jayewardene also challenged prevailing attitudes towards development itself.

Too often, she argued, “development” has become synonymous with replacing natural systems by concrete infrastructure.

She questioned whether flattening hillsides, redirecting streams and clearing vegetation can genuinely be described as progress.

In her view, genuine development should first ask what ecological value already exists before deciding what should be built.

One of the simplest yet most profound examples she offered concerned water.

“I always say it is acceptable to interrupt water,” she remarked. “But never disrupt it.”

That distinction reflects an ecological understanding often absent from conventional engineering.

Natural drainage systems, she warned, perform countless functions that remain invisible until they are damaged.

Floods, soil erosion, biodiversity decline and even changes in local climate frequently follow.

“We disrupt far more than water,” she said. “We disrupt entire ecological relationships.”

Equally significant was her distinction between degraded brownfield sites and relatively untouched greenfield landscapes.

Brownfield sites require ecological restoration, rehabilitation and renewal.

Greenfield sites demand restraint.

Minimal intervention, she argued, is often the highest form of environmental design.

The keynote found an appropriate setting within Dilmah Conservation’s own efforts to restore degraded urban landscapes.

Earlier in the programme, Rishan Sampath of Dilmah Conservation outlined the organisation’s transformation of an abandoned industrial property in Moratuwa into a flourishing urban forest containing over 300 tree species and more than 1,000 individual plants.

Scientific studies conducted within the restored forest have already demonstrated improvements in air quality compared with adjoining urban roads, providing measurable evidence that biodiversity restoration can improve city life.

For Jayewardene, such initiatives represent far more than beautification projects.

They demonstrate that ecological restoration can become a guiding philosophy for future urban planning.

Her address ultimately became a call to rethink humanity’s place within nature.

Architecture, she argued, should no longer celebrate domination over landscapes.

It should celebrate coexistence.

Every building should strengthen biodiversity.

Every development should restore ecological balance.

Every designer should ask not merely how a project serves people, but how it serves life itself.

As the audience left the hall, they carried with them more than architectural ideas.

They carried a challenge

To question inherited assumptions.

To rediscover indigenous ecological wisdom.

And to recognise that Sri Lanka’s greatest contribution to global sustainability may not lie in importing new environmental models, but in rediscovering the timeless principles embedded within its own civilisation.

For Sunela Jayewardene, the future will not be secured by building more impressive skylines.

It will be secured when humanity learns once again to build gently, intelligently and respectfully—allowing architecture to become not an act of conquest, but an expression of coexistence.

By Ifham Nizam

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Colombia’s “back-to-back queen”

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Beyond modelling, Colombia’s Katherine Castaño, who captured the crown at the Top Model of the World 2026, in Egypt, is also a TV host, entrepreneur and social media influencer.

She’s based in Miami, Florida right now — a hub for fashion and influencer work — a city she calls home base, while representing Colombia on the world stage.

Her Miami base gives her access to fashion, entertainment, and business networks, while her title keeps Colombia front and centre in the global modelling conversation.

Off the runway, she says she enjoys singing, playing the piano, and tennis.

Katherine didn’t make the trip to Egypt as a newcomer. She’s built a strong international portfolio before winning the crown.

In fact, her résumé reads like a fashion passport: Colombia Moda, New York Fashion Week, Miami Swim Week, Miami Fashion Week, Nicaragua Diseña, IXEL Moda, and Mercedes-Benz San José.

On June 8, 2026, Katherine Castaño was crowned by outgoing winner Natalia Garizabal Vera, also of Colombia. That gave Colombia a historic back-to-back victory — the first time any country has done it in the competition’s history, and Colombia’s 4th win overall.

As Top Model of the World 2026, Katherine’s reign is centred on elevating her profile as a model, influencer, and entrepreneur.

She’s built a personal brand around beauty, ambition, style, and professionalism, with strong reach across fashion, social media, and business.

As titleholder, she’s now the face of the pageant’s international fashion platform, representing Colombia globally, while based out of Miami.

Ahead of the competition she was clear about the stakes: “This is bigger than me. This is for my country. This is for the story I’m here to write… And I’m not going quietly… we’re going for that back to back.”

As the reigning titleholder, Katherine Castaño’s role extends far beyond the sash. She’s using the platform to grow her brand as a model, influencer, and entrepreneur rooted in “beauty, ambition, style, and professionalism”.

She will also be doing runway shows, photoshoots, brand appearances, and fashion events.

Sri Lanka’s representative at this pageant was NetalieWithanage.

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