Business
VAT increase could cause inflation to hit 7 percent in January – CBSL Governor
By Hiran H.Senewiratne
Sri Lanka’s inflation could rise to 7 percent in January 2024 due to the VAT increase, the Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL), Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe warned.
Speaking at a special press briefing held yesterday, Dr. Weerasinghe explained that an increase in inflation is likely due to the increase in the VAT and other external factors. He was speaking at the CBSL’s first Monetary Policy Review for this year held at Central Bank head office in Colombo.
The VAT was increased by 3 percent, from 15 percent to 18 percent, with effect from January 1, 2024, after the VAT (Amendment) Bill was passed in parliament on December 11, 2023, he said.
The Central Bank kept its policy rates unchanged at 10 percent at this its first monetary policy meeting in 2024. Market rates should fall further.
The Central Bank has operated a largely deflationary policy, selling down its Treasury bills portfolio against dollar inflows, thereby preventing pressure on the currency and building reserves, resulting in a balance of payments surplus.
Dr. Weerasinghe added: ‘Over the past month, the exchange rate has appreciated, which may also help offset a 3 percent hike in value added tax on traded commodities.
‘Headline inflation is projected to record an upward movement in the near term, as expected, driven mainly by domestic price adjustments due to the increase in the VAT and the elimination of certain VAT exemptions effective January 1, 2024, disruptions to the domestic food supply and dissipation of the favourable statistical base effect.
‘However, this acceleration of inflation in the near term is expected to be short-lived and the spillover effects of such one-off adjustments are likely to be muted due to subdued underlying demand conditions. Therefore, over the medium term, headline inflation is expected to gradually stabilise around the targeted level of 5 per cent (year-on-year), supported by appropriate policy measures.
‘Headline inflation, as measured by the year-on-year change in the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI, 2021=100), was recorded at 4.0 per cent in December 2023, compared to 3.4 per cent in November 2023.
‘Following five consecutive months of deflation, the food category recorded inflation (year-on-year) in December 2023, reflecting mainly the weather-related disruptions, while non-food inflation (year-on-year) moderated compared to the previous month.
‘Despite the recent acceleration, headline inflation remains closer to the inflation target of the Central Bank and is in line with the envisaged inflation projections of the Central Bank. Meanwhile, core inflation (year-on-year) continued to moderate in December 2023, compared to the previous month, reflecting the subdued demand pressures in the economy.
‘The Board took note of the effects of the recent developments in taxation and supply-side factors that are likely to pose upside pressures on inflation in the near term.
‘The Board anticipates a broad based reduction in overall market lending interest rates in line with the monetary policy easing measures that have come into effect since June 2023.
‘The Monetary Policy Board will continue to assess risks to inflation projections, among others, and stand ready to take appropriate measures to maintain domestic price stability in the period ahead while supporting the economy to reach its potential.
‘The Central Bank decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank at their current levels of 9.00 per cent and 10.00 per cent, respectively.
‘The Board arrived at this decision following a comprehensive assessment of domestic and international macroeconomic developments in order to maintain inflation at the targeted level of 5 per cent over the medium term, while enabling the economy to reach its potential.
‘However, the Board viewed that the impact of these developments would not materially change the medium-term inflation outlook. Further, the Board noted the space created by past monetary policy easing measures and the decline in the risk premia attached to government securities for further downward adjustment in market lending interest rates.
‘The Board underscored that the envisaged benefit of further reduction in market lending interest rates needs to be adequately and swiftly passed on to businesses and individuals by financial institutions.
‘Market interest rates continued to adjust downwards in line with eased monetary policy and administrative measures taken to reduce overall market lending interest rates.
‘The yields on government securities continue to decline, supported by falling risk premia. The Monetary Policy Board of the Central Bank is of the view that there is further space for market interest rates, especially the lending interest rates and yields on government securities, to decline in the period ahead, in line with the reduction in policy interest rates effected in the recent past.
‘The Sri Lankan economy recorded an expansion in the third quarter of 2023, following six consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Accordingly, the economy is estimated to have grown by 1.6 per cent, year-on-year in the third quarter of 2023, as per the GDP estimates published by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS).
‘This was a broad-based expansion in economic activity, supported by expansions recorded in Agriculture, Industry and Services sectors, on a year-on-year basis. The rebound in domestic economic activity is expected to be sustained, supported by the faster passthrough of relaxed monetary policy to broader market interest rates and the resultant firming of credit demand, improvements in business and investor sentiments, improvements in supply conditions and the gradual rebound expected in external demand conditions.
‘The merchandise trade deficit is estimated to have moderated during 2023 in comparison to 2022. This, coupled with the notable recovery in trade in services, mainly earnings from tourism, and the strong momentum of workers’ remittances, is expected to have resulted in a surplus in the current account balance of the balance of payments for 2023.
‘Gross official reserves (GOR) improved notably to US dollars 4.4 billion by end December 2023, which include the swap facility from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). This strong rebound of GOR was supported by the notable net purchases by the Central Bank from the domestic forex market and the proceeds from multilateral agencies. The Sri Lanka rupee, which appreciated by around 12 per cent against the US dollar in 2023, continued to show an appreciation so far in 2024.
‘In consideration of the current and expected macroeconomic developments highlighted above, and in keeping with the forward guidance provided at the last monetary policy review in November 2023, the Monetary Policy Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at its meeting held on January 22, 2024, decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank at their current levels of 9.00 per cent and 10.00 per cent, respectively.’
Business
Britain has opened a door: Sri Lanka’s SME apparel exporters need help walking through it
Trade preferences are often spoken of as though tariff cuts alone can remake an industry. They cannot. Preferences matter only when firms are able to use them. That is what makes the United Kingdom’s revised Developing Countries Trading Scheme (DCTS), effective from January 1, 2026, important for Sri Lanka’s apparel sector. It offers more than continued market access. It offers a more usable route into one of Sri Lanka’s key export markets. For large exporters, that is beneficial. For small and medium-sized firms, it could be pivotal.
The real significance lies in the rules of origin. Earlier preference regimes imposed conditions that often constrained smaller exporters, especially those without vertically integrated operations. The revised DCTS eases those constraints by allowing greater sourcing flexibility. For Sri Lankan apparel SMEs, that matters more than the headline concession. Smaller exporters rarely struggle because they cannot manufacture. More often, they struggle because they cannot source inputs competitively, price with enough agility, or meet delivery timelines reliably enough to retain buyer confidence. The DCTS begins to ease those commercial pressures.
That is the theory. The more important question is what it means in practice.
Joe Jayawardena, an exporter to the UK speaking from the perspective of a UK-linked buying and manufacturing business sourcing from Sri Lanka and other apparel-producing countries, put it plainly: the DCTS is a duty concession for developing countries. But its real value lies in how it changes the commercial conversation. If exporters can source from a wider pool of inputs without losing preferential access, they gain more room to negotiate on price, lead time, and fabric choice. In apparel, that is not a marginal gain. It can determine whether a supplier is shortlisted or ignored.
That matters particularly for Sri Lankan SMEs because they operate with structural disadvantages. They typically have less working capital, narrower supplier networks, and weaker bargaining power than larger manufacturers. They cannot absorb long delays. They cannot tie up cash in excessive inventory. And they rarely enjoy the upstream integration that allows major firms to manage both cost and compliance. When rules are rigid, smaller firms feel the pressure first. When rules become more flexible, they stand to benefit disproportionately.
That is why the DCTS should be viewed not merely as a customs adjustment, but as a competitiveness instrument.
Yet preferential access on paper does not automatically become export orders. Here, the exporters’ comments point to a harder truth. Jayawardena’s sharper criticism was not of the scheme itself, but of Sri Lanka’s failure, so far, to exploit it properly. The opportunity exists, he argued, but the connectivity does not. Better access means little if buyers are not being brought closer to suppliers, if exporters remain insufficiently visible in the market, and if the state treats market access as a passive entitlement rather than something to be actively commercialised.
That critique deserves attention. Sri Lanka has too often assumed that preferential access will somehow speak for itself. It does not. Trade schemes reward countries that organise around them. That means stronger participation in trade fairs, more direct buyer outreach, easier commercial engagement, and a more deliberate effort to market Sri Lanka’s value proposition. It also means helping SMEs turn regulatory change into business decisions. Which products are best placed under the new rules? How should firms restructure sourcing? What level of documentation is enough to avoid customs disputes? How should mixed shipments be managed? These are practical questions, and SMEs need practical answers.
Amindra Wimalasena, another exporter to the UK, pointed to the second half of the problem. Better market access alone will not allow firms to scale if they lack the means to modernise. His point was straightforward: with the right support for automation, and financing mechanisms designed around how the industry actually operates, output could rise materially without a proportional increase in labour. Productivity gains are possible, but only if investment reaches the factory floor rather than being trapped by wider financial constraints.
This is where the DCTS debate becomes more strategic. The scheme creates external opportunity. But Sri Lanka’s SME exporters still face internal constraints, especially in finance, systems, and market connection. Many smaller firms do not need another seminar on trade policy. They need inventory-backed lending, grace periods for machinery investment, stronger production planning, and better access to buyers. Without that, the gains from DCTS will flow mainly to firms already large enough to move quickly.
That would be a missed opportunity.
Sri Lanka’s apparel sector has long been anchored by a small number of established players. But the next phase of growth will require a broader base. SMEs can provide that, particularly in segments where flexibility, specialisation, and shorter production runs matter. Britain’s revised scheme could support exactly this part of the industry, if used properly. Greater sourcing freedom allows smaller firms to become more responsive. It lets them choose inputs on commercial merit rather than regulatory necessity. It can improve pricing, shorten lead times, and make them more attractive to UK buyers seeking agile sourcing partners.
But that outcome will not happen on its own. It requires an ecosystem response. Government and industry bodies need to treat DCTS as a commercial opening, not just a policy achievement. Support for SMEs must become more operational, not merely informational. And policymakers should link DCTS directly to productivity finance, so that smaller exporters can invest in efficiency and automation rather than simply admire improved market access from a distance.
The broader lesson is simple. Trade preferences create potential only when domestic institutions convert that potential into capability. The UK has widened the opening. Sri Lanka must now decide whether to merely welcome the gesture or make full commercial use of it.
For SME apparel exporters, the stakes are considerable. If the DCTS is properly leveraged, it could improve competitiveness, widen buyer access, and bring smaller firms closer to the centre of Sri Lanka’s export economy. If it is not, Sri Lanka risks repeating a familiar pattern: favourable terms, but limited results.
Britain has opened a door. Sri Lanka’s SMEs now need the systems, capital, and market access to walk through it.
Business
CSE & NSEIX enter strategic partnership to expand capital market access
The Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) and NSE IFSC LIMITED (NSEIX), an international multi-asset exchange and wholly owned subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited, signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) recently to strengthen capital market cooperation between Sri Lanka and India. Bringing together the senior leadership of both exchanges to formalise a strategic partnership, the occasion underscored the shared commitment of both institutions to building a more integrated regional financial ecosystem that benefits companies and investors in both exchanges.
Under this arrangement, both institutions will work towards introducing dual listings and cross listings, which will enable companies to list the same shares on both exchanges simultaneously, or to establish a presence on both markets through separate listings. Dual listings and cross listings offer listed companies a greater opportunity to increase liquidity through a broader and more diverse investor base and significantly enhance visibility among institutional and retail investors in both Sri Lanka and India. For companies in particular, access to India’s vast and deep capital markets could prove transformative in terms of growth financing and brand recognition.
Beyond listings, both the CSE and NSEIX have committed to working together to develop new financial products tailored to the needs of cross-border investors, reflecting the evolving sophistication of both markets.
The MoU also aims to enable bidirectional trading opportunities, giving investors in Sri Lanka and India access to each other’s markets. Furthermore, the Exchanges have agreed to undertake joint research initiatives, training programs, capacity building exercises, and outreach efforts for the mutual benefit of both institutions and the wider investment communities they serve.
Business
Ceylinco Life chairman R. Renganathan honoured by CMA
Receives ‘Distinguished Recognition in the Profession of Management Accounting’ award for excellence in management accounting and financial stewardshipThe Executive Chairman of Ceylinco Life Insurance Ltd., R. Renganathan, has been conferred the prestigious ‘Distinguished Recognition in the Profession of Management Accounting’ award by the Institute of Certified Management Accountants (CMA) of Sri Lanka, in recognition of his outstanding contribution to financial discipline, governance, and sustainable value creation.
The accolade was presented at the inauguration of a workshop on Integrated Reporting and Sustainability Accounting Standards, underscoring the growing importance of integrated reporting frameworks and Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) principles in modern corporate management.
A Chartered Accountant by profession, Renganathan has been instrumental in shaping Ceylinco Life’s financial and governance framework since joining the company at its inception. Having led the organisation from the commencement of its life insurance operations in 1988, following the privatisation of the industry, he has consistently championed the principles of transparency, accountability, and long-term value creation, aligning the company with evolving global best practices in reporting and sustainability.
Under his stewardship, Ceylinco Life has strengthened its position as the market leader in Sri Lanka’s life insurance sector, a distinction it has retained for 22 consecutive years. His financial acumen and strategic foresight have contributed to the growth of the company’s Life Fund to over Rs. 200 billion, while innovative product development has enabled the organisation to extend life insurance protection to over one million breadwinners across the country.
The recognition also reflects Renganathan’s broader contribution as a thought leader in financial stewardship and sustainability, to elevating standards within the insurance industry, particularly in embedding strong governance practices and ethical conduct, while driving resilience and sustainable growth.
Ceylinco Life’s continued alignment with integrated reporting principles and sustainability standards reinforces its position as a responsible corporate leader committed to transparency, stakeholder value, and long-term financial stability. The honour bestowed on its Executive Chairman further underscores the company’s commitment to financial stewardship and its role in advancing best practices in corporate reporting and governance in Sri Lanka.
-
News3 days ago2025 GCE AL: 62% qualify for Uni entrance; results of 111 suspended
-
News5 days agoTariff shock from 01 April as power costs climb across the board
-
News6 days agoInquiry into female employee’s complaint: Retired HC Judge’s recommendations ignored
-
Features7 days agoWhen seabed goes dark: The Persian Gulf, cable sabotage, and race for space-based monopoly
-
Features6 days agoNew arithmetic of conflict: How the drone revolution is inverting economics of war
-
Editorial3 days agoSearch for Easter Sunday terror mastermind
-
Business4 days agoHour of reckoning comes for SL’s power sector
-
Sports6 days agoSri Lanka’s 1996 World Cup heroes to play exhibition match in Kuala Lumpur
