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VAT increase could cause inflation to hit 7 percent in January – CBSL Governor

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Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe

By Hiran H.Senewiratne

Sri Lanka’s inflation could rise to 7 percent in January 2024 due to the VAT increase, the Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL), Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe warned.

Speaking at a special press briefing held yesterday, Dr. Weerasinghe explained that an increase in inflation is likely due to the increase in the VAT and other external factors. He was speaking at the CBSL’s first Monetary Policy Review for this year held at Central Bank head office in Colombo.

The VAT was increased by 3 percent, from 15 percent to 18 percent, with effect from January 1, 2024, after the VAT (Amendment) Bill was passed in parliament on December 11, 2023, he said.

The Central Bank kept its policy rates unchanged at 10 percent at this its first monetary policy meeting in 2024. Market rates should fall further.

The Central Bank has operated a largely deflationary policy, selling down its Treasury bills portfolio against dollar inflows, thereby preventing pressure on the currency and building reserves, resulting in a balance of payments surplus.

Dr. Weerasinghe added: ‘Over the past month, the exchange rate has appreciated, which may also help offset a 3 percent hike in value added tax on traded commodities.

‘Headline inflation is projected to record an upward movement in the near term, as expected, driven mainly by domestic price adjustments due to the increase in the VAT and the elimination of certain VAT exemptions effective January 1, 2024, disruptions to the domestic food supply and dissipation of the favourable statistical base effect.

‘However, this acceleration of inflation in the near term is expected to be short-lived and the spillover effects of such one-off adjustments are likely to be muted due to subdued underlying demand conditions. Therefore, over the medium term, headline inflation is expected to gradually stabilise around the targeted level of 5 per cent (year-on-year), supported by appropriate policy measures.

‘Headline inflation, as measured by the year-on-year change in the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI, 2021=100), was recorded at 4.0 per cent in December 2023, compared to 3.4 per cent in November 2023.

‘Following five consecutive months of deflation, the food category recorded inflation (year-on-year) in December 2023, reflecting mainly the weather-related disruptions, while non-food inflation (year-on-year) moderated compared to the previous month.

‘Despite the recent acceleration, headline inflation remains closer to the inflation target of the Central Bank and is in line with the envisaged inflation projections of the Central Bank. Meanwhile, core inflation (year-on-year) continued to moderate in December 2023, compared to the previous month, reflecting the subdued demand pressures in the economy.

‘The Board took note of the effects of the recent developments in taxation and supply-side factors that are likely to pose upside pressures on inflation in the near term.

‘The Board anticipates a broad based reduction in overall market lending interest rates in line with the monetary policy easing measures that have come into effect since June 2023.

‘The Monetary Policy Board will continue to assess risks to inflation projections, among others, and stand ready to take appropriate measures to maintain domestic price stability in the period ahead while supporting the economy to reach its potential.

‘The Central Bank decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank at their current levels of 9.00 per cent and 10.00 per cent, respectively.

‘The Board arrived at this decision following a comprehensive assessment of domestic and international macroeconomic developments in order to maintain inflation at the targeted level of 5 per cent over the medium term, while enabling the economy to reach its potential.

‘However, the Board viewed that the impact of these developments would not materially change the medium-term inflation outlook. Further, the Board noted the space created by past monetary policy easing measures and the decline in the risk premia attached to government securities for further downward adjustment in market lending interest rates.

‘The Board underscored that the envisaged benefit of further reduction in market lending interest rates needs to be adequately and swiftly passed on to businesses and individuals by financial institutions.

‘Market interest rates continued to adjust downwards in line with eased monetary policy and administrative measures taken to reduce overall market lending interest rates.

‘The yields on government securities continue to decline, supported by falling risk premia. The Monetary Policy Board of the Central Bank is of the view that there is further space for market interest rates, especially the lending interest rates and yields on government securities, to decline in the period ahead, in line with the reduction in policy interest rates effected in the recent past.

‘The Sri Lankan economy recorded an expansion in the third quarter of 2023, following six consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Accordingly, the economy is estimated to have grown by 1.6 per cent, year-on-year in the third quarter of 2023, as per the GDP estimates published by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS).

‘This was a broad-based expansion in economic activity, supported by expansions recorded in Agriculture, Industry and Services sectors, on a year-on-year basis. The rebound in domestic economic activity is expected to be sustained, supported by the faster passthrough of relaxed monetary policy to broader market interest rates and the resultant firming of credit demand, improvements in business and investor sentiments, improvements in supply conditions and the gradual rebound expected in external demand conditions.

‘The merchandise trade deficit is estimated to have moderated during 2023 in comparison to 2022. This, coupled with the notable recovery in trade in services, mainly earnings from tourism, and the strong momentum of workers’ remittances, is expected to have resulted in a surplus in the current account balance of the balance of payments for 2023.

‘Gross official reserves (GOR) improved notably to US dollars 4.4 billion by end December 2023, which include the swap facility from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). This strong rebound of GOR was supported by the notable net purchases by the Central Bank from the domestic forex market and the proceeds from multilateral agencies. The Sri Lanka rupee, which appreciated by around 12 per cent against the US dollar in 2023, continued to show an appreciation so far in 2024.

‘In consideration of the current and expected macroeconomic developments highlighted above, and in keeping with the forward guidance provided at the last monetary policy review in November 2023, the Monetary Policy Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at its meeting held on January 22, 2024, decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank at their current levels of 9.00 per cent and 10.00 per cent, respectively.’



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Shinkansen Moment for Sri Lanka: Raghuraman calls for radical export pivot as Japan backs regional value chain

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Sri Lanka must engineer a “Shinkansen effect” in its export strategy or risk being left behind in a rapidly reorganising global economy, warned Indo Lanka Chamber of Commerce and Industry President M. Raghuraman, setting the tone for a high-powered policy dialogue at the Japan–Sri Lanka Business Cooperation forum held on Monday at the JAIC Hilton.

Raghuraman’s call for radical reform came amid a broader push by Japan and Sri Lanka to reposition the island as a strategic node in a regional industrial and logistics corridor linking India, Japan and the wider Global South.

The event, organised by Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) and the Japan-Sri Lanka Business Co-Operation Committee, brought together policymakers, industry leaders and Japanese investors to map out a new export-led growth model.

“Sri Lanka cannot afford incremental change,” Raghuraman said. “We need a Shinkansen effect — a radical transformation in how we plug into regional and global value chains.”

With India projected to expand its middle-income population from 430 million to over 700 million by 2030, Raghuraman described the subcontinent as a “pot of gold just 22 miles away.” Yet Sri Lanka, he cautioned, has failed to fully capitalise on its proximity, particularly through delayed negotiations on upgrading existing trade arrangements into a more comprehensive economic partnership.

Echoing this regional logic, Toyokazu Nagamune, Regional Representative for South Asia at Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), framed the corridor within Tokyo’s evolving economic security doctrine.

“With rising geopolitical risks and protectionism, Japan is diversifying supply chains,” Nagamune said.

“It is neither realistic nor cost-efficient to localise entire supply chains within a single country. That is why regional cooperation — especially between India and Sri Lanka — is critical.”

Japan is actively encouraging investment in strategic sectors such as semiconductors, batteries, solar panels and rare earth components in India. But Nagamune stressed that Sri Lanka has complementary strengths — from high-purity rubber to skilled electronics assembly — that can integrate into these value chains.

He cited practical examples: Sri Lanka supplying rubber components for compressors manufactured in India; high-purity silicon inputs for solar cell production; and value-added intermediate goods that enhance cost competitiveness across the corridor.

Secretary to the Ministry of Trade, Commerce, Food Security and Co-Operative Development K.A. Vimalenthirajah acknowledged that policy recalibration is overdue.

“We need to create an enabling environment for manufacturers and shift from merely promoting trading entrepreneurship,” he said. “Sri Lanka must position itself as a preferred destination facilitating both investors and exporters.”

Vimalenthirajah identified three priorities: expanding physical connectivity — including ongoing capacity enhancements at the Colombo Port; strengthening “soft enablers” such as comprehensive free trade agreements and mutual recognition of standards; and institutional reforms including result-oriented single-window systems for trade and investment.

Confidence-building through policy consistency, he added, is paramount to attracting long-term capital.

From the Japanese private sector perspective, Takayuki Himeno, Chief Research Manager at Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc., underscored that infrastructure alone will not secure Sri Lanka’s ambitions as a logistics hub.

“Sri Lanka’s strategic location is an advantage, but it is no longer enough,” Himeno said. “The challenge is fragmentation. Ports, airports and industries operate in silos. Physical infrastructure must be synchronised with data connectivity.”

Drawing on MRI’s two decades of experience managing Japan’s national single window and customs systems, Himeno pointed to digital integration — including port community systems and streamlined customs processes — as essential to reducing lead times and boosting export competitiveness.

Moderating the discussion, Ruvini Fernando, Head of Financial Advisory at Deloitte Sri Lanka, framed the conversation within Sri Lanka’s urgent need to diversify exports and identify new product lines and markets.

“When Sri Lanka is looking at development through export promotion and new market access, this is a very timely discussion,” she observed.

The strategic thrust emerging from the forum was clear: Sri Lanka’s small domestic market — just over 21 million people — should not be seen as a limitation but as a catalyst to integrate outward into regional production networks.

For Japan, the message is about resilience and cost-competitive diversification. For India, it is about scaling manufacturing depth. For Sri Lanka, it is about moving decisively from raw material exports to value-added components — and from policy inertia to execution.

By Ifham Nizam

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CSE hits intra-day high in the wake of US-Iran tensions

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CSE closed after its broader index hit an intra-day high of 24,000 yesterday due to tensions in US-Iran relations and a dip in investor sentiment.

The All Share Price Index closed at 0.21 percent, or 49.77 points, at 23,870.07 while the S&P SL20 closed down at 0.28 percent, or 19.19 points, at 6,731.31.

Market turnover was Rs 4.9 billion with six crossings. Some of those crossings were reported in Hayleys, where 500,000 shares crossed to the tune of Rs 120 million; its shares traded at Rs 240, Distilleries 2 million shares crossed to the tune of Rs 119 million; its shares sold at Rs 59.50, Dipped Products 1.4 million shares crossed for Rs 80 million; its shares sold at Rs 57, Dialog Axiata 2.25 million shares crossed to the tune of Rs 73.6 million; its shares sold at Rs 32.70, JKH 2.4 million shares crossed to the tune of Rs 55.4 million, its shares traded at Rs 22.80.

Market was driven by interest across diverse sectors with both heavyweights and penny stocks drawing attention, brokers said.

Top negative contributors to the ASPI were Sampath Bank (down Rs 1.75 at 162.25), Colombo Dockyard (down Rs 4.75 at 156.50), Dialog Axiata (down 0.60 cents at Rs 32.70 ), DFCC Bank (down Rs 2 at 157) and Commercial Bank (down Rs 1 at 233). During the day 276.9 million share volumes changed hands in 39867 transactions.

It is said that top contributors to the turnover were Dialog, JKH, Acme, Renuka Hotels, Colombo Dockyard, People’s Leasing and Finance and Asia Siyaka.

Manufacturing sector,especially JKH, performed well. The telecommunications sector, especially Dialog, also performed well.

Yesterday the rupee was quoted at Rs 309.30/35 to the US dollar in the spot market , improving from Rs 309.35/40 the previous day, dealers said, while bond yields edged up slightly.

The telegraphic transfer rates for the American dollar were 305.9000 buying, 312.9000 selling; the British pound was 411.8379 buying, and 423.2855 selling, and the euro was 358.4993 buying, 370.0205 selling.

By Hiran H Senewiratne

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Ceylinco Life wins unrivaled global recognition with 12th straight World Finance award

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Stands with world’s best after receiving ‘Best Life Insurer in Sri Lanka’ title in respect of 2025

Ceylinco Life has once again been recognised as the Best Life Insurer in Sri Lanka by World Finance, securing the prestigious international accolade for an unprecedented 12th consecutive year in respect of 2025.The award positions Ceylinco Life among the world’s most respected life insurance companies, placing it in the distinguished company of global winners such as Sun Life (Canada), Acenda (Australia), China Pacific Insurance (China), CNP Assurances (France), The Talanx Group (Germany), Max Life Insurance (India), Nippon Life Insurance Company (Japan), Swiss Life (Switzerland), Aviva (UK) and MassMutual (USA).

Announcing its 2025 Insurance Industry Awards, World Finance said resilience continues to define the global insurance sector, as firms navigate climate-related claims, rising cyber risks and the rapid evolution of digital underwriting. The magazine noted that this year’s winners exemplify a rare balance between innovation and reliability, earning policyholder confidence while redefining responsible insurance in an increasingly digital age.

Commenting on this latest accolade, Ceylinco Life Executive Chairman R. Renganathan said: “Sustaining this level of international recognition over twelve consecutive years reflects the discipline of our operating culture and the clarity of our long-term strategy. Our focus has always been on building a life insurance business that is resilient across cycles, uncompromising on governance, and deeply aligned with the evolving needs of our policyholders and the communities we serve.”

The World Finance award recognises Ceylinco Life as an organisation that consistently demonstrates operational excellence, financial strength and a strong commitment to customer service. Winners are selected following a rigorous assessment of multiple performance indicators, including underwriting efficiency, policy maintenance processes, exposure to risk, customer retention, claims settlement timelines, new customer acquisition and financial stability measured by premium income, market share, life fund growth and profitability.

The judging process is conducted by a panel representing more than 230 years of combined financial and business journalism expertise, supported by a dedicated research team. Reader insight and experience also play a role in nominations, while the panel is required to avoid bias relating to company size or market depth, enabling a fair evaluation across geographies and business models.

World Finance, established in 2007, is a print and online magazine providing comprehensive coverage and analysis of the global financial industry, international business and the world economy. Its awards programmes are designed to identify and recognise the strongest performers in each market through a structured and transparent evaluation process.

Ceylinco Life has been the market leader in Sri Lanka’s life insurance industry for 21 consecutive years, offering innovative insurance solutions that protect and de-risk the ambitions of policyholders. In 2025, the Company was ranked the most valuable insurance brand in Sri Lanka and the 22nd most valuable brand overall by Brand Finance. It was also voted the People’s Life Insurance Service Provider of the Year for the 19th consecutive year in 2025, reaffirming its position as a brand trusted by millions.

The Company has additionally been adjudged Sri Lanka’s Brand of the Year twice within the past five years and has been recognised among the 10 Most Admired Companies in Sri Lanka by the International Chamber of Commerce Sri Lanka (ICCSL) and the Chartered Institute of Management Accountants (CIMA).

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