Business
VAT increase could cause inflation to hit 7 percent in January – CBSL Governor
By Hiran H.Senewiratne
Sri Lanka’s inflation could rise to 7 percent in January 2024 due to the VAT increase, the Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL), Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe warned.
Speaking at a special press briefing held yesterday, Dr. Weerasinghe explained that an increase in inflation is likely due to the increase in the VAT and other external factors. He was speaking at the CBSL’s first Monetary Policy Review for this year held at Central Bank head office in Colombo.
The VAT was increased by 3 percent, from 15 percent to 18 percent, with effect from January 1, 2024, after the VAT (Amendment) Bill was passed in parliament on December 11, 2023, he said.
The Central Bank kept its policy rates unchanged at 10 percent at this its first monetary policy meeting in 2024. Market rates should fall further.
The Central Bank has operated a largely deflationary policy, selling down its Treasury bills portfolio against dollar inflows, thereby preventing pressure on the currency and building reserves, resulting in a balance of payments surplus.
Dr. Weerasinghe added: ‘Over the past month, the exchange rate has appreciated, which may also help offset a 3 percent hike in value added tax on traded commodities.
‘Headline inflation is projected to record an upward movement in the near term, as expected, driven mainly by domestic price adjustments due to the increase in the VAT and the elimination of certain VAT exemptions effective January 1, 2024, disruptions to the domestic food supply and dissipation of the favourable statistical base effect.
‘However, this acceleration of inflation in the near term is expected to be short-lived and the spillover effects of such one-off adjustments are likely to be muted due to subdued underlying demand conditions. Therefore, over the medium term, headline inflation is expected to gradually stabilise around the targeted level of 5 per cent (year-on-year), supported by appropriate policy measures.
‘Headline inflation, as measured by the year-on-year change in the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI, 2021=100), was recorded at 4.0 per cent in December 2023, compared to 3.4 per cent in November 2023.
‘Following five consecutive months of deflation, the food category recorded inflation (year-on-year) in December 2023, reflecting mainly the weather-related disruptions, while non-food inflation (year-on-year) moderated compared to the previous month.
‘Despite the recent acceleration, headline inflation remains closer to the inflation target of the Central Bank and is in line with the envisaged inflation projections of the Central Bank. Meanwhile, core inflation (year-on-year) continued to moderate in December 2023, compared to the previous month, reflecting the subdued demand pressures in the economy.
‘The Board took note of the effects of the recent developments in taxation and supply-side factors that are likely to pose upside pressures on inflation in the near term.
‘The Board anticipates a broad based reduction in overall market lending interest rates in line with the monetary policy easing measures that have come into effect since June 2023.
‘The Monetary Policy Board will continue to assess risks to inflation projections, among others, and stand ready to take appropriate measures to maintain domestic price stability in the period ahead while supporting the economy to reach its potential.
‘The Central Bank decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank at their current levels of 9.00 per cent and 10.00 per cent, respectively.
‘The Board arrived at this decision following a comprehensive assessment of domestic and international macroeconomic developments in order to maintain inflation at the targeted level of 5 per cent over the medium term, while enabling the economy to reach its potential.
‘However, the Board viewed that the impact of these developments would not materially change the medium-term inflation outlook. Further, the Board noted the space created by past monetary policy easing measures and the decline in the risk premia attached to government securities for further downward adjustment in market lending interest rates.
‘The Board underscored that the envisaged benefit of further reduction in market lending interest rates needs to be adequately and swiftly passed on to businesses and individuals by financial institutions.
‘Market interest rates continued to adjust downwards in line with eased monetary policy and administrative measures taken to reduce overall market lending interest rates.
‘The yields on government securities continue to decline, supported by falling risk premia. The Monetary Policy Board of the Central Bank is of the view that there is further space for market interest rates, especially the lending interest rates and yields on government securities, to decline in the period ahead, in line with the reduction in policy interest rates effected in the recent past.
‘The Sri Lankan economy recorded an expansion in the third quarter of 2023, following six consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Accordingly, the economy is estimated to have grown by 1.6 per cent, year-on-year in the third quarter of 2023, as per the GDP estimates published by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS).
‘This was a broad-based expansion in economic activity, supported by expansions recorded in Agriculture, Industry and Services sectors, on a year-on-year basis. The rebound in domestic economic activity is expected to be sustained, supported by the faster passthrough of relaxed monetary policy to broader market interest rates and the resultant firming of credit demand, improvements in business and investor sentiments, improvements in supply conditions and the gradual rebound expected in external demand conditions.
‘The merchandise trade deficit is estimated to have moderated during 2023 in comparison to 2022. This, coupled with the notable recovery in trade in services, mainly earnings from tourism, and the strong momentum of workers’ remittances, is expected to have resulted in a surplus in the current account balance of the balance of payments for 2023.
‘Gross official reserves (GOR) improved notably to US dollars 4.4 billion by end December 2023, which include the swap facility from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). This strong rebound of GOR was supported by the notable net purchases by the Central Bank from the domestic forex market and the proceeds from multilateral agencies. The Sri Lanka rupee, which appreciated by around 12 per cent against the US dollar in 2023, continued to show an appreciation so far in 2024.
‘In consideration of the current and expected macroeconomic developments highlighted above, and in keeping with the forward guidance provided at the last monetary policy review in November 2023, the Monetary Policy Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at its meeting held on January 22, 2024, decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank at their current levels of 9.00 per cent and 10.00 per cent, respectively.’
Business
Development deficit getting in the way of SL joining RCEP – Trade Ministry Secretary
Sri Lanka is not quite ready to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), since it is lacking sufficient development, Trade Ministry Secretary K.A. Vimalenthirarajah said.
‘At present the Trade Ministry is establishing Sri Lanka’s readiness to join RCEP, which consists of 15 countries, through several channels, Vimalenthirarajah said at a recent round table discussion titled, ‘Sri Lanka’s Pathway to RCEP and the Emerging Global Trading Order’, organized by the Pathfinder Foundation and held at the Colombo Club, Taj Samudra.
‘Sri Lanka is actively accelerating its compliance efforts to join the 15-nation RCEP having submitted its required accession questionnaire in early 2026, he explained.
Vimalenthirarajah added: ‘The Cabinet has established a high-level policy and working committee and also obtained some technical assistance from multilateral partners because complying with RCEP requirements is challenging. Subsequently, this body responded to the follow-up questions that came up and had discussions with RCEP representatives and it expects more follow-up questions with regard to Sri Lanka’s readiness to join RCEP.
‘Sri Lanka has also secured political and diplomatic support from current RCEP members, including Australia, New Zealand, and Indonesia, to facilitate its entry process.’
Meanwhile, state officials, including Industries and Entrepreneurship Development Deputy Minister Chathuranga Abeysinghe, are implementing key economic structural reforms, a new tariff policy, and transparent investment criteria required by the bloc. Because formal accession protocols for RCEP are still being finalized, Sri Lanka is also simultaneously negotiating bilateral trade and investment agreements with regional members to accelerate integration.
Abeysinghe, participating virtually in the event said that Sri Lanka cannot achieve sustained export growth and attract large-scale investment by relying solely on its domestic market. ‘As a small economy, the country’s future lies in deeper integration with regional and global value chains. RCEP connects 15 economies, including Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, China and ASEAN member states, collectively accounting for nearly 30% of global trade, he explained.
Abeysinghe added: ‘Access to such a market would create new opportunities for Sri Lankan businesses, particularly the country’s Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), which currently contribute only around 10 percent to national exports.
‘However, Sri Lanka is at least a decade behind in implementing many of the reforms required to fully participate in modern global trade. Recognizing this challenge, the government is now moving forward with several critical reforms: A new tariff policy to improve competitiveness and eliminate barriers to trade, transparent and predictable investment criteria, investment facilitation reforms to improve the ease of doing business, new legislation including the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Act and SOE reforms to strengthen investor confidence and measures to improve investment protection and unlock new sources of capital, including venture capital and angel investment funds.
‘Sri Lanka’s exports currently stand at approximately US$ 17 billion and have grown only gradually over the years. Expanding market access through bilateral and multilateral agreements, while continuing domestic reforms, is essential if the country is to achieve its long-term economic ambitions.’
By Hiran H Senewiratne
Business
Pussalla Agri Ventures secures EU, USDA organic certs, paving way for high-value exports
In a landmark development for Sri Lanka’s organic spice sector, Pussalla Agri Ventures has been awarded both EU Organic and USDA Organic certifications for its premium Ceylon cinnamon products. The certifications were officially conferred at Control Union Sri Lanka, signaling a major milestone in the company’s strategic transformation toward fully certified organic operations.
The recognition strengthens Pussalla Agri Ventures’ position as an emerging exporter of certified organic products, with its flagship offering, organic Ceylon cinnamon (Cinnamomum verum, also known as Cinnamomum zeylanicum), cultivated in Sri Lanka’s traditional cinnamon-growing regions.
Notably, the dual certification opens doors to some of the world’s most lucrative and compliance-driven organic markets, including the European Union and the United States.
Pussalla Agri Ventures began its structured transition into organic cinnamon cultivation several years ago, building a fully integrated system covering cultivation, processing, and value addition. The company currently manages extensive cinnamon cultivation lands and operates under strict organic agricultural principles, ensuring compliance with global certification standards.
These certifications, issued through Control Union Sri Lanka, validate that the company’s farming and processing systems meet rigorous international requirements, including restrictions on synthetic chemicals, comprehensive traceability controls, and environmental sustainability practices. These certifications add to an existing portfolio that already includes SL GAP, Food GMP, and Cosmetic GMP certifications.
Company representatives described the achievement as a “milestone” in the Pussalla organic journey, one that paves the way for expanded access to premium export markets in Europe and the United States. According to them, the certifications are expected to enhance buyer confidence, particularly among health-conscious consumers and clean-label food brands.
Pussalla Agri Ventures emphasised that its organic cinnamon is sourced entirely from its own cultivated estates.
“This estate-to-exporter integration ensures full control over quality, traceability, and processing integrity. The company’s model allows cinnamon to be harvested, processed, and packed under continuously monitored conditions, maintaining strict alignment with international organic standards,” they noted.
Speaking further they said:
“Sri Lanka supplies the majority of the world’s True Ceylon Cinnamon, a spice prized for its delicate aroma, low coumarin levels, and reputed medicinal properties. The growing global demand for certified organic spices has created new opportunities for local producers who meet international compliance standards. Pussalla Agri Ventures’ certification achievement places it among a select group of Sri Lankan exporters adopting globally recognised organic systems, thereby enhancing the country’s reputation in high-value spice markets.”
“As organic food sales continue to rise in North America and Europe, certifications such as these are becoming essential rather than optional. For Pussalla Agri Ventures, the journey from conventional to certified organic is not merely a compliance exercise but a strategic repositioning aimed at long-term sustainability and premium pricing power.”
By Sanath Nanayakkare
Business
NCCSL to host seminar on data protection & privacy
The National Chamber of Commerce of Sri Lanka (NCCSL) will host a timely and insightful seminar titled “Data Protection & Privacy: Safeguarding Businesses in the Digital Era” on 18th June 2026, from 9.00 a.m. to 12.30 p.m., at the National Chamber of Commerce Auditorium, Colombo 10 with the objective of enhancing awareness among businesses on emerging cyber risks, data protection requirements, and digital security best practices.
As organizations increasingly rely on digital platforms, online transactions, cloud-based systems, and data-driven operations, protecting sensitive information and ensuring privacy compliance have become critical priorities for organizations of all sizes. The seminar aims to provide practical knowledge and strategic guidance to help businesses strengthen resilience against cyber threats while fostering trust and confidence among customers and stakeholders.
Interested parties are encouraged to register by contacting Udula – 0714034775/ 0114741788 | udula.nccsl@gmail.com or Nishanthi – 0762555707 | nishanthi@nationalchamber.lk
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