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VAT increase could cause inflation to hit 7 percent in January – CBSL Governor

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Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe

By Hiran H.Senewiratne

Sri Lanka’s inflation could rise to 7 percent in January 2024 due to the VAT increase, the Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL), Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe warned.

Speaking at a special press briefing held yesterday, Dr. Weerasinghe explained that an increase in inflation is likely due to the increase in the VAT and other external factors. He was speaking at the CBSL’s first Monetary Policy Review for this year held at Central Bank head office in Colombo.

The VAT was increased by 3 percent, from 15 percent to 18 percent, with effect from January 1, 2024, after the VAT (Amendment) Bill was passed in parliament on December 11, 2023, he said.

The Central Bank kept its policy rates unchanged at 10 percent at this its first monetary policy meeting in 2024. Market rates should fall further.

The Central Bank has operated a largely deflationary policy, selling down its Treasury bills portfolio against dollar inflows, thereby preventing pressure on the currency and building reserves, resulting in a balance of payments surplus.

Dr. Weerasinghe added: ‘Over the past month, the exchange rate has appreciated, which may also help offset a 3 percent hike in value added tax on traded commodities.

‘Headline inflation is projected to record an upward movement in the near term, as expected, driven mainly by domestic price adjustments due to the increase in the VAT and the elimination of certain VAT exemptions effective January 1, 2024, disruptions to the domestic food supply and dissipation of the favourable statistical base effect.

‘However, this acceleration of inflation in the near term is expected to be short-lived and the spillover effects of such one-off adjustments are likely to be muted due to subdued underlying demand conditions. Therefore, over the medium term, headline inflation is expected to gradually stabilise around the targeted level of 5 per cent (year-on-year), supported by appropriate policy measures.

‘Headline inflation, as measured by the year-on-year change in the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI, 2021=100), was recorded at 4.0 per cent in December 2023, compared to 3.4 per cent in November 2023.

‘Following five consecutive months of deflation, the food category recorded inflation (year-on-year) in December 2023, reflecting mainly the weather-related disruptions, while non-food inflation (year-on-year) moderated compared to the previous month.

‘Despite the recent acceleration, headline inflation remains closer to the inflation target of the Central Bank and is in line with the envisaged inflation projections of the Central Bank. Meanwhile, core inflation (year-on-year) continued to moderate in December 2023, compared to the previous month, reflecting the subdued demand pressures in the economy.

‘The Board took note of the effects of the recent developments in taxation and supply-side factors that are likely to pose upside pressures on inflation in the near term.

‘The Board anticipates a broad based reduction in overall market lending interest rates in line with the monetary policy easing measures that have come into effect since June 2023.

‘The Monetary Policy Board will continue to assess risks to inflation projections, among others, and stand ready to take appropriate measures to maintain domestic price stability in the period ahead while supporting the economy to reach its potential.

‘The Central Bank decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank at their current levels of 9.00 per cent and 10.00 per cent, respectively.

‘The Board arrived at this decision following a comprehensive assessment of domestic and international macroeconomic developments in order to maintain inflation at the targeted level of 5 per cent over the medium term, while enabling the economy to reach its potential.

‘However, the Board viewed that the impact of these developments would not materially change the medium-term inflation outlook. Further, the Board noted the space created by past monetary policy easing measures and the decline in the risk premia attached to government securities for further downward adjustment in market lending interest rates.

‘The Board underscored that the envisaged benefit of further reduction in market lending interest rates needs to be adequately and swiftly passed on to businesses and individuals by financial institutions.

‘Market interest rates continued to adjust downwards in line with eased monetary policy and administrative measures taken to reduce overall market lending interest rates.

‘The yields on government securities continue to decline, supported by falling risk premia. The Monetary Policy Board of the Central Bank is of the view that there is further space for market interest rates, especially the lending interest rates and yields on government securities, to decline in the period ahead, in line with the reduction in policy interest rates effected in the recent past.

‘The Sri Lankan economy recorded an expansion in the third quarter of 2023, following six consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Accordingly, the economy is estimated to have grown by 1.6 per cent, year-on-year in the third quarter of 2023, as per the GDP estimates published by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS).

‘This was a broad-based expansion in economic activity, supported by expansions recorded in Agriculture, Industry and Services sectors, on a year-on-year basis. The rebound in domestic economic activity is expected to be sustained, supported by the faster passthrough of relaxed monetary policy to broader market interest rates and the resultant firming of credit demand, improvements in business and investor sentiments, improvements in supply conditions and the gradual rebound expected in external demand conditions.

‘The merchandise trade deficit is estimated to have moderated during 2023 in comparison to 2022. This, coupled with the notable recovery in trade in services, mainly earnings from tourism, and the strong momentum of workers’ remittances, is expected to have resulted in a surplus in the current account balance of the balance of payments for 2023.

‘Gross official reserves (GOR) improved notably to US dollars 4.4 billion by end December 2023, which include the swap facility from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). This strong rebound of GOR was supported by the notable net purchases by the Central Bank from the domestic forex market and the proceeds from multilateral agencies. The Sri Lanka rupee, which appreciated by around 12 per cent against the US dollar in 2023, continued to show an appreciation so far in 2024.

‘In consideration of the current and expected macroeconomic developments highlighted above, and in keeping with the forward guidance provided at the last monetary policy review in November 2023, the Monetary Policy Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at its meeting held on January 22, 2024, decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank at their current levels of 9.00 per cent and 10.00 per cent, respectively.’



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Port City, key to transforming Sri Lanka into global services hub – PRASL forum

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Key dignitaries at the PRASL forum: ‘Port City is key’

Sri Lanka must urgently strengthen policy consistency, accelerate investment reforms and fully leverage Colombo Port City as a global financial and services hub if it is to emerge as South Asia’s premier destination for foreign direct investment (FDI), business leaders and policymakers said at a high-level Public Relations Association of Sri Lanka (PRASL) forum on Monday.

The discussion, themed “Taking Sri Lanka to the World,” followed an address by internationally renowned scholar Prof. Patrick Mendis, who called for a foreign policy anchored in Sri Lanka’s own identity under what he termed the “Mahaweli Doctrine.”

Delivering the keynote business perspective, Colombo Port City Economic Commission chairman, President’s Counsel Harsha Amarasekara described the Port City as Sri Lanka’s largest public-private partnership and one of the country’s most significant economic transformation projects.

He stressed that unlike many large infrastructure developments, the Port City had not added a single dollar to Sri Lanka’s sovereign debt, with ownership of the reclaimed land remaining entirely with the government of Sri Lanka.

“The Port City is designed to compete globally in high-value services, finance, technology, tourism and innovation. It is not another industrial zone—it is a gateway connecting Sri Lanka to international markets, Amarasekara said.

He said that nine land parcels had already been leased, five major projects were under construction and several additional investments were expected before the end of the year.

The Port City, operating as a Special Economic Zone with transactions permitted in 14 foreign currencies, is targeting multinational corporations seeking regional headquarters, Global Capability Centres (GCCs) and innovation hubs.

Amarasekara said the project’s greatest long-term value would be knowledge transfer, international expertise and high-quality employment opportunities for Sri Lankan professionals.

Former Board of Investment chairman Arjuna Herath warned that Sri Lanka risked losing its long-standing competitive advantage unless it rapidly upgraded its logistics and investment ecosystem.

He noted that nearly 80 percent of Colombo Port’s business depended on transshipment, with India accounting for almost half that volume while aggressively expanding its own port capacity.

“If Sri Lanka fails to invest and improve efficiency, competitors will overtake us, Herath cautioned.

He argued that attracting FDI was no longer simply about offering incentives but about creating a predictable business environment built on policy consistency, regulatory certainty, efficient institutions and investor confidence.

Herath also highlighted Sri Lanka’s global strengths in apparel manufacturing, tyre exports and logistics, saying these industries demonstrated the country’s ability to compete internationally.

International investment strategist Lakshan Madurasinghe, Chief Executive Officer of SolutionsGround (Pvt.) Ltd and former president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Sri Lanka, said Sri Lanka must fundamentally rethink the way it markets itself to global investors.

While welcoming the country’s ambitious investment targets, he noted that actual inflows remained well below expectations.

“The first investment is important. The second, third and fourth investments are what truly measure investor confidence, he said.

Madurasinghe proposed a three-point framework—Positioning, Showing Up and Disruption (PSD)—to reposition Sri Lanka in the global investment marketplace.

He called for a single national investment brand backed by the President, government institutions, overseas missions, the private sector and the Sri Lankan diaspora.

“Every stakeholder must communicate one consistent message to the world. Investors must clearly understand why Sri Lanka is different and why they should choose us, he said.

He also urged authorities to improve investor facilitation, strengthen aftercare services and pursue innovative investment channels, including family offices, strategic partnerships and non-traditional FDI sources.

The forum concluded that Sri Lanka possesses significant structural advantages—including its strategic location, skilled workforce and expanding Port City—but these strengths must be supported by consistent policies, transparent governance and coordinated national promotion if the country is to achieve its ambition of becoming a leading regional investment, financial and services hub.

By Ifham Nizam

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AAC and Galle Services Club enter into Reciprocal Membership Agreement

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Dhammika Attygalle, President – AAC (2nd from right) exchanging the Reciprocal Membership Agreement with Senaka De Silva, President – GSC (seond from left). Also in the picture, Devapriya Hettiarachchi – Secretary – AAC and Prof. Channa Yahathugoda, Secretary, GSC.

The Automobile Association of Ceylon (AAC), the oldest motoring organization established in 1904 and the Galle Services Club (GSC), which is an old sports and recreational body established in 1946, recently entered into a Reciprocal Membership Agreement for the use of facilities of the clubs reciprocally by members on days / hours when the clubs are open for business.

The rationale for the agreement is to enhance members’ benefits of both clubs and to enable them to access a broader range of services, discounts and facilities while encouraging greater participation in community engagement.

It is also intended to explore joint events, training programmes, road safety campaigns and travel related activities that leverage the strengths of each organization.

The Reciprocal Membership Agreement was duly signed and shared between Dhammika Attygalle, President – AAC; Senaka De Silva, President – GSC, at Radison Blue Hotel on July 4, during a sing along programme organized by GSC.

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Commercial Bank makes history with biggest FinanceAsia Awards haul by a Sri Lankan bank

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Krishan Gamage, Deputy General Manager – Information Technology (Operations) and Chinthaka Dharmasena, Assistant General Manager – Services at Commercial Bank accept the FinanceAsia awards on behalf of the Bank.

Reaffirming its unmatched leadership and excellence in Sri Lanka’s banking sector, the Commercial Bank of Ceylon has been named Best Bank in Sri Lanka for the 15th consecutive year at the FinanceAsia Awards 2026, while also winning six other prestigious accolades across key areas of banking, the most by Sri Lankan bank.

In addition to being named the country’s Best Bank, Commercial Bank was also honoured as Best Bank for SMEs, Best Bank for Use of Technology, Best Islamic Finance House, Best Sustainable Bank, Best Private Bank and Best Retail Bank in Sri Lanka. Collectively, these accolades underscore the Bank’s leadership across key areas of the financial services spectrum.

Widely regarded as one of the most respected benchmarks in the Asia-Pacific financial services industry, the FinanceAsia Awards recognise institutions that demonstrate excellence in performance, innovation, leadership, customer service and resilience. The 2026 edition marks the 30th edition of these flagship awards, which evaluate banks on financial strength, strategic growth, digital transformation, sustainability initiatives and overall contribution to their respective economies.

“Recognition at globally respected award programmes such as the FinanceAsia Awards further strengthens our standing among leading regional and international peers, while affirming our performance in financial strength, innovation, customer service and sustainability,” said Sanath Manatunge, Managing Director/CEO of Commercial Bank. “This success also enhances stakeholder confidence and reinforces customer trust in the Bank’s ability to deliver consistent value across multiple areas of banking.”

The awards were accepted on behalf of Commercial Bank by Chinthaka Dharmasena, Assistant General Manager – Services, and Krishan Gamage, Deputy General Manager – Information Technology (Operations), at the gala ceremony held on 24th June 2026 in Hong Kong.

Explaining the basis for its selections, FinanceAsia noted that the 2026 awards celebrate institutions that demonstrated determination to deliver desirable outcomes during 2025 through strong commercial and technical acumen, despite operating in complex and evolving market conditions.

The first Sri Lankan bank with a market capitalisation exceeding US$ 1 Bn., and the first bank in the country to be listed among the Top 1000 Banks of the World, Commercial Bank has the highest capital base among all Sri Lankan banks, is the largest private sector lender in Sri Lanka, and the largest lender to the country’s SME sector. Ranked No. 1 in the Business Today Top 40, the Bank is recognised as the most respected and most-awarded bank in Sri Lanka, is a leader in digital innovation and is the country’s first 100% carbon-neutral bank.

Commercial Bank operates more than 270 strategically-located branches and an extensive network of automated machines island-wide, and has the widest international footprint among Sri Lankan banks, with 21 branches in Bangladesh.

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