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VAT increase could cause inflation to hit 7 percent in January – CBSL Governor

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Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe

By Hiran H.Senewiratne

Sri Lanka’s inflation could rise to 7 percent in January 2024 due to the VAT increase, the Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL), Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe warned.

Speaking at a special press briefing held yesterday, Dr. Weerasinghe explained that an increase in inflation is likely due to the increase in the VAT and other external factors. He was speaking at the CBSL’s first Monetary Policy Review for this year held at Central Bank head office in Colombo.

The VAT was increased by 3 percent, from 15 percent to 18 percent, with effect from January 1, 2024, after the VAT (Amendment) Bill was passed in parliament on December 11, 2023, he said.

The Central Bank kept its policy rates unchanged at 10 percent at this its first monetary policy meeting in 2024. Market rates should fall further.

The Central Bank has operated a largely deflationary policy, selling down its Treasury bills portfolio against dollar inflows, thereby preventing pressure on the currency and building reserves, resulting in a balance of payments surplus.

Dr. Weerasinghe added: ‘Over the past month, the exchange rate has appreciated, which may also help offset a 3 percent hike in value added tax on traded commodities.

‘Headline inflation is projected to record an upward movement in the near term, as expected, driven mainly by domestic price adjustments due to the increase in the VAT and the elimination of certain VAT exemptions effective January 1, 2024, disruptions to the domestic food supply and dissipation of the favourable statistical base effect.

‘However, this acceleration of inflation in the near term is expected to be short-lived and the spillover effects of such one-off adjustments are likely to be muted due to subdued underlying demand conditions. Therefore, over the medium term, headline inflation is expected to gradually stabilise around the targeted level of 5 per cent (year-on-year), supported by appropriate policy measures.

‘Headline inflation, as measured by the year-on-year change in the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI, 2021=100), was recorded at 4.0 per cent in December 2023, compared to 3.4 per cent in November 2023.

‘Following five consecutive months of deflation, the food category recorded inflation (year-on-year) in December 2023, reflecting mainly the weather-related disruptions, while non-food inflation (year-on-year) moderated compared to the previous month.

‘Despite the recent acceleration, headline inflation remains closer to the inflation target of the Central Bank and is in line with the envisaged inflation projections of the Central Bank. Meanwhile, core inflation (year-on-year) continued to moderate in December 2023, compared to the previous month, reflecting the subdued demand pressures in the economy.

‘The Board took note of the effects of the recent developments in taxation and supply-side factors that are likely to pose upside pressures on inflation in the near term.

‘The Board anticipates a broad based reduction in overall market lending interest rates in line with the monetary policy easing measures that have come into effect since June 2023.

‘The Monetary Policy Board will continue to assess risks to inflation projections, among others, and stand ready to take appropriate measures to maintain domestic price stability in the period ahead while supporting the economy to reach its potential.

‘The Central Bank decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank at their current levels of 9.00 per cent and 10.00 per cent, respectively.

‘The Board arrived at this decision following a comprehensive assessment of domestic and international macroeconomic developments in order to maintain inflation at the targeted level of 5 per cent over the medium term, while enabling the economy to reach its potential.

‘However, the Board viewed that the impact of these developments would not materially change the medium-term inflation outlook. Further, the Board noted the space created by past monetary policy easing measures and the decline in the risk premia attached to government securities for further downward adjustment in market lending interest rates.

‘The Board underscored that the envisaged benefit of further reduction in market lending interest rates needs to be adequately and swiftly passed on to businesses and individuals by financial institutions.

‘Market interest rates continued to adjust downwards in line with eased monetary policy and administrative measures taken to reduce overall market lending interest rates.

‘The yields on government securities continue to decline, supported by falling risk premia. The Monetary Policy Board of the Central Bank is of the view that there is further space for market interest rates, especially the lending interest rates and yields on government securities, to decline in the period ahead, in line with the reduction in policy interest rates effected in the recent past.

‘The Sri Lankan economy recorded an expansion in the third quarter of 2023, following six consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Accordingly, the economy is estimated to have grown by 1.6 per cent, year-on-year in the third quarter of 2023, as per the GDP estimates published by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS).

‘This was a broad-based expansion in economic activity, supported by expansions recorded in Agriculture, Industry and Services sectors, on a year-on-year basis. The rebound in domestic economic activity is expected to be sustained, supported by the faster passthrough of relaxed monetary policy to broader market interest rates and the resultant firming of credit demand, improvements in business and investor sentiments, improvements in supply conditions and the gradual rebound expected in external demand conditions.

‘The merchandise trade deficit is estimated to have moderated during 2023 in comparison to 2022. This, coupled with the notable recovery in trade in services, mainly earnings from tourism, and the strong momentum of workers’ remittances, is expected to have resulted in a surplus in the current account balance of the balance of payments for 2023.

‘Gross official reserves (GOR) improved notably to US dollars 4.4 billion by end December 2023, which include the swap facility from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). This strong rebound of GOR was supported by the notable net purchases by the Central Bank from the domestic forex market and the proceeds from multilateral agencies. The Sri Lanka rupee, which appreciated by around 12 per cent against the US dollar in 2023, continued to show an appreciation so far in 2024.

‘In consideration of the current and expected macroeconomic developments highlighted above, and in keeping with the forward guidance provided at the last monetary policy review in November 2023, the Monetary Policy Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at its meeting held on January 22, 2024, decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank at their current levels of 9.00 per cent and 10.00 per cent, respectively.’



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SLT’s dollar reserves rise 30% in Q1, but exact figure kept confidential

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SLT Mobitel senior management gives a press conference on May 19 at SLT Head Office in Colombo

Sri Lanka Telecom PLC said its dollar reserves rose by around 30 percent in the first quarter of 2026, strengthening the group’s foreign currency position at a time when many Sri Lankan companies remain cautious about external payment risks and exchange-rate volatility.

Chairman of the SLT Group, Dr. Mothilal de Silva disclosed the increase during a post-results media briefing on May 19, following the release of the group’s first-quarter financial results, but declined to reveal the exact value of the reserves, describing the information as commercially sensitive.

“We do not disclose the exact figure because it could affect our negotiations with international suppliers and contractors,” he said in response to a question raised by The Island.

The stronger dollar liquidity comes as a strategic advantage for SLT-MOBITEL, whose operations remain heavily dependent on imported telecom infrastructure, including fibre-optic equipment, transmission hardware, mobile network systems and digital technology platforms largely priced in US dollars.

The improved reserve position is likely to provide the telecom group with greater flexibility in funding future network expansion, servicing foreign currency obligations and managing exchange-rate exposure in a sector closely tied to global technology supply chains.

The remarks came as SLT Group reported its strongest-ever quarterly operating profit and net earnings for the first quarter of 2026, supported by rising broadband demand and improved operational performance.

Group revenue rose 10.6 percent year-on-year to Rs. 30.8 billion, while operating profit surged 39.1 percent to Rs. 5.1 billion. Profit after tax increased 53.3 percent to Rs. 3.1 billion.

The company also highlighted continued investment in broadband and next-generation infrastructure, including the wider rollout of 5G services, as Sri Lanka’s telecom sector positions itself for higher data consumption and enterprise digitalisation.

Unlike many earnings announcements that focus primarily on revenue growth and profitability, SLT’s comments on foreign currency reserves may carry broader significance for investors monitoring corporate resilience in Sri Lanka’s still-fragile post-crisis recovery environment.

When The Island asked whether the Group’s profitability was sustainable amid a slow revenue growth environment, the SLT Group said revenue expansion remained challenging, but added that it had a robust strategy in place to sustain growth.

By Sanath Nanayakkare

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Rupee pressure squeezes industries as import costs surge

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Indhra Kaushal Rajapaksa

…exporters gain little as deeper structural weaknesses persist

Sri Lanka’s weakening rupee is placing severe pressure on industries heavily dependent on imported raw materials, fuel, machinery, and spare parts, with small and medium enterprises (SMEs) facing the gravest threat to survival, according to Indhra Kaushal Rajapaksa.

Speaking to The Island Financial Review, Rajapaksa warned that while a depreciating currency may offer exporters temporary exchange gains, the broader economic impact is proving damaging across multiple sectors of the economy.

“Most businesses are struggling because Sri Lanka imports a significant portion of its industrial requirements. As the rupee weakens, costs rise sharply across the board,” he said.

Industries are responding through a combination of price increases, aggressive cost-cutting, delayed investments, and efforts to source cheaper alternatives. However, Rajapaksa stressed that many firms are operating under shrinking profit margins and mounting uncertainty.

“Companies are trying to survive by passing some costs to consumers, reducing operational expenses, and postponing expansion plans. But SMEs are under extreme pressure because they have limited reserves and weaker access to foreign currency,” he noted.

Rajapaksa observed that large corporates are better positioned to withstand currency shocks due to stronger balance sheets, export earnings, and greater financial flexibility. In contrast, smaller enterprises remain highly vulnerable to fluctuations in import costs and financing conditions.

He identified construction, vehicle imports, pharmaceuticals, electronics, logistics, and manufacturing industries reliant on imported inputs among the sectors worst affected by the rupee depreciation.

“These sectors depend heavily on foreign supplies. Every decline in the rupee immediately increases production and operating costs,” he said.

While export-oriented industries may appear to benefit from currency depreciation, Rajapaksa cautioned that the gains are often overstated.

“There is only a short-term conversion advantage when export earnings are brought back into rupees. But many exporters also depend on imported raw materials and machinery, so their own costs increase simultaneously,” he explained.

He added that the burden of currency depreciation ultimately falls on ordinary consumers through rising food prices, higher fuel and transport costs, more expensive imported goods, and accelerating inflationary pressures.

“Consumers are paying the price indirectly every day,” he said.

Rajapaksa acknowledged that some companies are attempting to localise supply chains and increase the use of domestic raw materials. However, he pointed out that Sri Lanka currently lacks the industrial scale and production capacity to fully replace imports competitively.

“There is growing interest in local sourcing, but Sri Lanka cannot produce everything locally at the required scale or cost efficiency,” he said.

The continued volatility of the currency is also affecting investor confidence, with businesses finding it increasingly difficult to plan ahead.

“Investors value stability. Frequent currency fluctuations create uncertainty and discourage both local and foreign investment,” Rajapaksa warned.

He called on the government to focus on stabilising the economy, strengthening foreign reserves, supporting SMEs and export industries, reducing unnecessary imports, encouraging local production, and ensuring consistent economic policies.

“Policy consistency is critical. Businesses need confidence to invest, expand, and create jobs,” he said.

Rajapaksa also cautioned that employment could suffer if economic pressures continue, particularly in import-dependent sectors and smaller businesses struggling to remain operational.

“Some export sectors may create opportunities, but it may not be enough to offset job losses elsewhere,” he observed.

Describing the current crisis as both cyclical and structural, Rajapaksa said Sri Lanka’s economic vulnerabilities extend beyond short-term currency movements.

“There are immediate pressures from both global and domestic financial conditions, but there are also deeper structural issues such as high import dependence, a narrow export base, and low productivity,” he said.

“Unless meaningful structural reforms are implemented, these problems will continue to recur.”

By Ifham Nizam

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SLIM ushers in new era of leadership at Annual General Meeting 2026

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SLIM New President Enoch Perera addressing the gathering

The Sri Lanka Institute of Marketing (SLIM), the country’s national body for marketing, successfully convened its Annual General Meeting (AGM) 2026 on 8th April 2026 at the iconic Galle Face Hotel.

The AGM marked a significant milestone in the Institute’s journey, as a new Council of Management and Executive Committee were formally appointed to steer SLIM into its next phase of growth. Building on the strong foundation laid during a transformative 2025, the AGM reflected both continuity and renewal, with an accomplished group of marketing professionals entrusted with leadership roles for the 2026/27 term. The event brought together SLIM members, industry leaders, and stakeholders, underscoring the Institute’s ongoing commitment to advancing the marketing profession in Sri Lanka.

At the helm of the newly appointed Council of Management is Enoch Perera, who assumes office as President. A seasoned marketing professional with extensive experience in international business, he currently serves as Assistant General Manager Marketing – International Business at PGP Glass Ceylon PLC. Joining him in key leadership roles are Manthika Ranasinghe as Vice President – Education and Research, and Rajiv David as Vice President – Events & Sustainability, both bringing with them strong industry expertise and strategic insight.

The Council is further strengthened by Asanka Perera and Nuwan Thilakawardhana as Joint Honorary Secretaries, Ms. Kaushala Amarasekara as Honorary Treasurer, and Dr. Rasanjalee Abeywickrama as Honorary Assistant Secretary. In addition, SLIM announced its Executive Committee for 2026/27, comprising a dynamic group of professionals representing diverse sectors of the marketing industry. The committee includes Channa Jayasinghe, Vijitha Govinna, Anuk De Silva, Sirimevan Senevirathne, Tharindu Karunarathne, Damith Jayawardana, Charitha Dias, Damith Pathiraja, Ms. Roshani Fernando, and Maduranga Weeratunga.

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