Business
VAT increase could cause inflation to hit 7 percent in January – CBSL Governor
By Hiran H.Senewiratne
Sri Lanka’s inflation could rise to 7 percent in January 2024 due to the VAT increase, the Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL), Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe warned.
Speaking at a special press briefing held yesterday, Dr. Weerasinghe explained that an increase in inflation is likely due to the increase in the VAT and other external factors. He was speaking at the CBSL’s first Monetary Policy Review for this year held at Central Bank head office in Colombo.
The VAT was increased by 3 percent, from 15 percent to 18 percent, with effect from January 1, 2024, after the VAT (Amendment) Bill was passed in parliament on December 11, 2023, he said.
The Central Bank kept its policy rates unchanged at 10 percent at this its first monetary policy meeting in 2024. Market rates should fall further.
The Central Bank has operated a largely deflationary policy, selling down its Treasury bills portfolio against dollar inflows, thereby preventing pressure on the currency and building reserves, resulting in a balance of payments surplus.
Dr. Weerasinghe added: ‘Over the past month, the exchange rate has appreciated, which may also help offset a 3 percent hike in value added tax on traded commodities.
‘Headline inflation is projected to record an upward movement in the near term, as expected, driven mainly by domestic price adjustments due to the increase in the VAT and the elimination of certain VAT exemptions effective January 1, 2024, disruptions to the domestic food supply and dissipation of the favourable statistical base effect.
‘However, this acceleration of inflation in the near term is expected to be short-lived and the spillover effects of such one-off adjustments are likely to be muted due to subdued underlying demand conditions. Therefore, over the medium term, headline inflation is expected to gradually stabilise around the targeted level of 5 per cent (year-on-year), supported by appropriate policy measures.
‘Headline inflation, as measured by the year-on-year change in the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI, 2021=100), was recorded at 4.0 per cent in December 2023, compared to 3.4 per cent in November 2023.
‘Following five consecutive months of deflation, the food category recorded inflation (year-on-year) in December 2023, reflecting mainly the weather-related disruptions, while non-food inflation (year-on-year) moderated compared to the previous month.
‘Despite the recent acceleration, headline inflation remains closer to the inflation target of the Central Bank and is in line with the envisaged inflation projections of the Central Bank. Meanwhile, core inflation (year-on-year) continued to moderate in December 2023, compared to the previous month, reflecting the subdued demand pressures in the economy.
‘The Board took note of the effects of the recent developments in taxation and supply-side factors that are likely to pose upside pressures on inflation in the near term.
‘The Board anticipates a broad based reduction in overall market lending interest rates in line with the monetary policy easing measures that have come into effect since June 2023.
‘The Monetary Policy Board will continue to assess risks to inflation projections, among others, and stand ready to take appropriate measures to maintain domestic price stability in the period ahead while supporting the economy to reach its potential.
‘The Central Bank decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank at their current levels of 9.00 per cent and 10.00 per cent, respectively.
‘The Board arrived at this decision following a comprehensive assessment of domestic and international macroeconomic developments in order to maintain inflation at the targeted level of 5 per cent over the medium term, while enabling the economy to reach its potential.
‘However, the Board viewed that the impact of these developments would not materially change the medium-term inflation outlook. Further, the Board noted the space created by past monetary policy easing measures and the decline in the risk premia attached to government securities for further downward adjustment in market lending interest rates.
‘The Board underscored that the envisaged benefit of further reduction in market lending interest rates needs to be adequately and swiftly passed on to businesses and individuals by financial institutions.
‘Market interest rates continued to adjust downwards in line with eased monetary policy and administrative measures taken to reduce overall market lending interest rates.
‘The yields on government securities continue to decline, supported by falling risk premia. The Monetary Policy Board of the Central Bank is of the view that there is further space for market interest rates, especially the lending interest rates and yields on government securities, to decline in the period ahead, in line with the reduction in policy interest rates effected in the recent past.
‘The Sri Lankan economy recorded an expansion in the third quarter of 2023, following six consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Accordingly, the economy is estimated to have grown by 1.6 per cent, year-on-year in the third quarter of 2023, as per the GDP estimates published by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS).
‘This was a broad-based expansion in economic activity, supported by expansions recorded in Agriculture, Industry and Services sectors, on a year-on-year basis. The rebound in domestic economic activity is expected to be sustained, supported by the faster passthrough of relaxed monetary policy to broader market interest rates and the resultant firming of credit demand, improvements in business and investor sentiments, improvements in supply conditions and the gradual rebound expected in external demand conditions.
‘The merchandise trade deficit is estimated to have moderated during 2023 in comparison to 2022. This, coupled with the notable recovery in trade in services, mainly earnings from tourism, and the strong momentum of workers’ remittances, is expected to have resulted in a surplus in the current account balance of the balance of payments for 2023.
‘Gross official reserves (GOR) improved notably to US dollars 4.4 billion by end December 2023, which include the swap facility from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). This strong rebound of GOR was supported by the notable net purchases by the Central Bank from the domestic forex market and the proceeds from multilateral agencies. The Sri Lanka rupee, which appreciated by around 12 per cent against the US dollar in 2023, continued to show an appreciation so far in 2024.
‘In consideration of the current and expected macroeconomic developments highlighted above, and in keeping with the forward guidance provided at the last monetary policy review in November 2023, the Monetary Policy Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at its meeting held on January 22, 2024, decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank at their current levels of 9.00 per cent and 10.00 per cent, respectively.’
Business
Vehicle permit revival threatens governance credibility – Advocata
Advocata warns revival of vehicle permits threatens governance credibility, public trust and economic reform and strongly cautions against government consideration to allow vehicle imports for high-ranking government officials who received permits upon retirement.
According to statements in Parliament, 1,900 permits have already been issued under this concessional scheme for senior officials, with 563 permits issued in 2025 alone. Meanwhile, ordinary citizens endure an extended vehicle import ban and some of the highest effective taxes on personal transport vehicles in the world.
During the presentation of the 2026 Budget Proposal, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake declared: “There will be no permits. The permit culture must end in Sri Lanka!”
Advocata welcomed this commitment, recognising permit culture as a relic of a feudal system, not a feature of a modern economy. It is a system that has, for decades, rewarded privilege over performance, entrenched inequality, and undermined the credibility of the state. The President’s affirmation offered renewed hope that Sri Lanka was finally moving toward transparent and equitable reform.
To now entertain exemptions for a select group sends a dangerous signal about reform credibility. Even policies publicly acknowledged as corrosive have the potential to quietly return.
The Normalisation of State Sanctioned Privilege
Vehicle permits are not compensation. They are discretionary privileges, operating as hidden transfers of public wealth to a privileged few, while the broader population absorbs higher taxes and reduced services. Worse still, they place retirement benefits at the mercy of political discretion, turning professional civil servants into political dependents rather than accountable public servants.
Therefore, it is precisely the high-ranking officials that must lead by example.
In December 2010, Transparency International Sri Lanka revealed that the majority of 65 newly elected Parliamentarians, including 2 Cabinet Ministers, sold their duty free vehicle permits for as much as Rs. 17 million each, when adjusted for inflation using Department of Census and Statistics figures, that windfall is equivalent to which adjusted for inflation sits at approximately Rs. 48 million today.
In December 2012, in an event the Sunday Times classified as a “Christmas Bonanza for MPs,” the Government granted permission for MPs to openly sell their duty free permits. At the time, they sold for Rs. 20 million each, which adjusted for inflation sits at approximately Rs. 50 million today.
In October 2016, Nagananda Kodituwakku, an attorney-at-law and rights activist, wrote to the Commissioner General of Motor Traffic, naming 75 MPs who imported luxury vehicles, including BMWs, Mercedes-Benz, Land Cruisers and even a Hummer. The total tax waived per MP ranged from Rs.30 million to Rs. 44.7 million. In today’s terms, this range approximately translates to between a staggering Rs. 66 million and Rs. 98.5 million.
History demonstrates the scale of abuse enabled by this system.
Toward integrity in Governance
As Advocata has previously highlighted, Sri Lanka’s cascading tax structure drives effective import duties on most passenger vehicles into the 125–250 percent range. Every duty-free permit therefore represents a direct fiscal loss; revenue that must be recovered through higher taxes elsewhere or reduced public services for everyone else. Since 2020 alone, more than 25,000 duty-free permits have been issued to government employees, including during the height of the economic crisis.
Making exceptions now would set a dangerous precedent. It signals to every remaining permit holder that persistence will be rewarded, inevitably triggering lobbying pressure and further demands for carveouts. This is how temporary “concessions” become permanent entitlements. Once reopened, the system cannot be credibly contained.
From an economic and governance perspective, reintroducing selective exemptions would undermine public confidence in fiscal consolidation, weaken the credibility of reform commitments, and damage investor perceptions of Sri Lankan regulatory stability and policy consistency.
The appropriate solution lies in transparent, on-budget salary structures, subject to Parliamentary oversight. Crucially, they must compensate public servants fairly without undermining fiscal discipline or institutional integrity, avoiding the distortions created by discretionary privilege schemes.
Advocata calls on the government to take the following actions:
Abandon plans to allow vehicle imports under existing duty free permits.
Commit to permanently ending vehicle permit schemes, replacing them with clear and transparent salary frameworks subject to Parliamentary oversight.
Legislate a prohibition on duty-free vehicle permits for public sector officials, safeguarding against future reversals and ensuring consistent policy application.
Sri Lanka cannot rebuild trust while preserving elite carve-outs. Reform commitments retain credibility only when they are applied consistently — without selective exemptions. Advocata spokespersons are available for live and pre-recorded broadcast interviews via 0755477522
Business
Sri Lanka gears up for global cycling adventure
The vibrant island of Sri Lanka is set to welcome cycling enthusiasts from around the globe with the much-anticipated Trek4 Sri Lanka Cycle Ride, an event that promises adventure, breathtaking views, and a celebration of local culture.
Trek4 Ceylon officially announced its annual tour of Sri Lanka at a press conference held at Cinnamon Grand Colombo, unveiling the 2026 five day charity ride dedicated to restoring St. Luke’s Methodist Mission Hospital in Puttur. The trek began from Cinnamon Grand Colombo February 10th and will end in Jaffna on 14th February covering over 560 kilometers across Sri Lanka. The ride will cover some of the most picturesque routes across the island, from the stunning beaches up to Jaffna. Over 50 riders from 11 countries take part in the trek including United Kingdom, Australia and United States of America.
Andrew Patrick, British High Commissioner to Sri Lanka expressed strong support for the Trek4 initiative. He stated, “This cycle trek not only promotes cycling and sustainable tourism but also emphasizes our mission to help local communities thrive. By participating in this event, cyclists will contribute directly to the local economy and foster community development. It’s a fantastic opportunity to explore the beauty of Sri Lanka while making a positive impact.”
Speaking at the gathering Australian High Commissioner Matthew Duckworth said “Cycling in Australia is a deeply ingrained cultural phenomenon, with Australians being world-renowned for their participation in both competitive road cycling and extensive off-road trekking. It was an honor to attend the send-off gathering for the Trek4 cycle ride in Sri Lanka at Westminster House. This initiative not only promotes fitness and camaraderie but also strengthens the bonds between our nations. I am excited to see the positive impact it will have on both participants and the communities they engage with along the way. “
By Claude Gunasekera
Business
Anticipated uptick in banking and financial sector shares
Both CSE indices showed high performance yesterday because most stock investors anticipate an upwards trend in the banking and financial sector in the coming months, market analysts said.Amid those developments both indices moved upwards with a high turnover level. The All Share Price Index went up by 37.33 points, while the S and P SL20 rose by 24.17 points.
Turnover stood at Rs 8.5 billion with 17 crossings. Top seven crossings were as follows: Tokyo Cement 11.5 million shares crossed to the tune of Rs 1.19 billion; its shares traded at Rs 104, TJ Lanka 18 million shares crossed for Rs 671 million; its shares traded at Rs 37.50, Sampath Bank 2.35 million shares crossed for Rs 366 million; its shares sold at Rs 156, Tokyo Cement 1.95 million shares crossed for Rs 168 million; its shares sold at Rs 86.20, Colombo Dockyards 1 million shares crossed for Rs 156 million; its shares traded at Rs 156 and HNB 313,000 shares crossed for Rs 136.8 million; its shares sold at Rs 437 and Digital Mobility Solutions 500,000 shares crossed for Rs 79.5 million; its shares traded at Rs 159.
In the retail market, top seven companies that mainly contributed to the turnover were; Tokyo Cement Rs 866 million (8.3 million shares traded), Tokyo Cement (Non-Voting) Rs 746 million (8.6 million shares traded), Colombo Dockyard Rs 410 million (2.6 million shares traded), TJ Lanka Rs Rs 331 million (8.9 million shares traded), Softlogic Capital Rs 305 million (40 million shares traded), Janashakthi Insurance Rs 227 million (1.5 million shares traded) and HNB Rs 152 million (350,000 shares traded). During the day 57.32 million shares volumes changed hands in 36500 transactions.
It is said that construction related companies, especially Tokyo Cement, performed well while the banking and financial sector performed well too, especially Sampath Bank and HNB.
Yesterday the rupee was quoted at Rs 309.20/23 to the US dollar in the spot market, from Rs 309.30/37 the previous day, dealers said, while bond yields were broadly steady.
By Hiran H Senewiratne
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