Editorial
Economics vs. Politics
Thursday 15th August, 2024
All signs are that the upcoming presidential poll and the next general election, which is expected to follow in quick succession, will take their toll on the country’s economic recovery process. The main presidential candidates are ready to do things that are fraught with the danger of not only inhibiting economic recovery but also sending the economy back into a tailspin.
The government, controlled by President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who is also the Finance Minister, is playing Santa. It is throwing money around in a desperate bid to recover lost ground. It has promised a pay hike for the public sector workers while claiming that the IMF-prescribed revenue targets have to be met. The President himself has indicated that vehicle imports will resume soon. Predicting that the country’s foreign currency reserves will suffer a temporary setback as a result, he has claimed that they will improve with the passage of time. However, there is no guarantee that they will. Tensions between Israel and Iran are reaching a boiling point, and if war erupts in the Middle East, oil prices will shoot up and workers remittances will drop; the prices of imports are bound to increase exponentially in such an eventuality. We peddle no argument against the resumption of vehicle imports, but the government must tread cautiously without allowing its political goals to take precedence over the country’s economic recovery strategy.
Until the announcement of the presidential election, the government had been rejecting requests for a downward revision of painfully high personal taxes. It has now made an about-turn. President Wickremesinghe is reported to have told a group of university administrators that government is ‘looking at adjustments to the personal tax structure to provide some relief to the taxpayers’; he says he has received two proposals in this regard––one from the Treasury, which is under him, and the other from the IMF.
There is no gainsaying that people are reeling from direct and indirect taxes, and the news about possible tax revisions will certainly gladden their hearts, but the question is whether the factors that led to sharp tax increases have been tackled for tax cuts to be considered. The IMF has stressed the need for Sri Lanka to raise its state revenue to the region of 15% of GDP by 2025, and pointed out that the revenues in other middle-income countries average 26% of GDP. The SJB and the JVP/NPP have also promised to ease the tax burden on the public. Their argument that if the tax net is cast wide, and tax collection is streamlined with corruption being tackled, it will be possible to grant relief to the public, is not without some merit, but will that goal be attainable in the foreseeable future? It will be interesting to see the tax adjustment proposals by the Treasury and the IMF.
Curiously, all contestants in the presidential race have chosen to remain silent on the imputed rental income tax on the cards. What do they propose to do with it?
There is hardly anything that Sri Lankan politicians baulk at doing to further their political interests and win elections. Never do they hesitate to subjugate the country’s long-term economic interests to their short-term political goals. The current economic crisis is multifactorial, but it is mainly attributable to politically-motivated tax cuts and ill-conceived welfare measures under the Gotabaya Rajapaksa government. Having won the 2019 presidential election, the SLPP slashed taxes, causing a sharp drop in state revenue, and embarked on a relief programme aimed to win the 2020 general election. It resorted to excessive money printing, which led to an increase in inflation, and the depreciation of the rupee, aggravating the country’s forex woes.
Having ruined the economy, the SLPP had to upend its own economic strategy by way of crisis management at the behest of the IMF. But there are signs of the blunders that led to the current economic crisis being repeated.
Given what the government has undertaken to do at the expense of the economy to garner votes, and the attractive promises its rivals are making to woo the public, the upcoming presidential election can be considered a contest between economics and politics. One can only hope that the economy will survive the coming elections.
Editorial
Rising tide of fake news
Wednesday 18th September, 2024
There has been an increase in the recirculation of videos of past incidents via the Internet to confuse the public ahead of the forthcoming presidential election, the police have said, requesting the public not to be misled by such misinformation campaigns. They have warned that stringent action will be taken against those who are responsible for circulating such videos.
One can only hope that the public will be able to see through such propaganda ruses. It may be recalled that on the day of the 2010 presidential election, while voting was in progress, some state-owned media outlets stooped so low as to float baseless stories which were detrimental to the interests of the then common presidential candidate of the Opposition, Sarath Fonseka, but thankfully the Election Commission (EC) moved in swiftly to stop them. No such action may be possible against errant social media outfits which have become a law unto themselves.
Anything is possible in this digital age, as is common knowledge. The Internet is awash with doctored videos and other such propaganda material. Artificial Intelligence (AI) has made possible what was considered impossible a few years ago, and AI-generated videos are in circulation, promoting or vilifying presidential candidates.
Propaganda campaigns are being carried out, according to Rafferty’s rules in the digital space, which is polluted by half-truths, mistruths and lies. Deepfake has become the order of the day if the sheer number of digitally manipulated images and videos doing the rounds on the Internet is any indication. The situation is bound to take a turn for the worse during the mandatory cooling-off period, which commences tomorrow.
The mainstream media outfits, save a handful, usually abide by the guidelines set out by the EC, which has warned that noncompliance will be severely dealt with, but they usually prove ineffective in regulating social media.
Misinformation has become a money-spinner. Cyber manipulators are already in overdrive, and what they will do during the mandatory campaign blackout period is anybody’s guess. Literally, they have the potential to set the country ablaze, as was seen in the aftermath of the savage SLPP goon attacks on the Galle Face protesters in May 2022, when the flames of retaliatory violence which left a government MP dead and many houses belonging to the ruling party politicians gutted were mostly stoked by social media posts. Besides, Sri Lankans have earned notoriety for mass hysteria, episodes of which are numerous.
One may recall that hundreds of thousands of people rushed to a village in Kegalle, during the Covid-19 pandemic, to buy an untested herbal syrup touted as a miracle cure. There have also been several instances where large crowds gathered near some religious statues, claiming that rays were emanating from them. Many people also fell for a story that a massive cobra had emerged from the Kelani Ganga ahead of a past presidential election. In the aftermath of the Xpress Pearl ship disaster in 2021, some social media activists triggered panic buying of salt, of all things; they claimed that there would be a shortage of table salt owing to sea pollution. Salt remained in short supply for weeks on end. The possibility of some sinister elements active on the Internet scaring the public into stocking up on food and fuel in a frenzied manner in view of the forthcoming election cannot be ruled out. It behoves the government to go all out to counter such moves.
Let the police and the EC be urged to redouble their efforts to prevent disruptive elements from spreading misinformation to confuse the public and plunge the country into chaos at this crucial juncture.
Editorial
Bullets, ballots and travel warnings
Tuesday 17th September, 2024
The ongoing contest for the coveted presidency has turned red in tooth and claw, with the contenders desperately doing everything in their power to achieve their most cherished goal. Election campaigns are getting down and dirty with politicians and their supporters hurling mud at one another. What is fast approaching is a contest the political leaders in the fray cannot afford to lose, given the very high stakes they have in it. The 21 Sept., presidential election is bound to be followed by a general election, and the party of the winner of the presidency usually secures the control of Parliament.
Thankfully, the pre-election period has been peaceful so far, but owing to the unpredictable nature of Sri Lankan politics, anything is possible. It is only natural that some countries have expressed concern about the safety of their citizens visiting this country and some of them have gone to the extent of issuing travel warnings.
Ironically, no sooner had Washington issued a travel advisory on Sri Lanka, asking the US citizens here to exercise caution in view of the forthcoming presidential election than the Secret Service foiled a bid to assassinate former US President Donald Trump, who is seeking a nonconsecutive term. But for an Argus-eyed SS agent, who spotted a gun barrel in a bush on a golf course, where Trump was playing, on Sunday, and opened fire, the gunman hiding in the shrubbery would perhaps have been able to achieve his target. It was the second attempt to kill Trump since early July 2024, when a bullet grazed his right ear at an election rally in Pennsylvania.
The SS has received praise for thwarting Sunday’s assassination bid, and deservedly so. It has however come in for criticism for its failure to prevent the suspect from entering the golf course and bringing the former President into the effective range of his AK-47 assault rifle fitted with a scope. The gunman is now in custody; he almost made good his escape after his botched mission. He is expected to reveal, under interrogation, the motive for his attempt to kill Trump.
Sunday’s incident and the narrow escape Trump had from an assassin’s bullet in July show the growing vulnerability of US leaders vis-à-vis dangerous elements bent on harming them. This being the situation in the US, described as the most powerful country in the world, it is clear how vulnerable the leaders in the Global South are.
It is hoped that the police and others tasked with protecting the presidential candidates engaged in intense campaigning here will learn from what has played out in the US during the past two months or so, and go all out to ensure the safety of the contenders for the presidency and the public. Thankfully, nothing untoward has happened so far, but nothing must be left to chance where security arrangements are concerned.
Meanwhile, Washington has, in its travel advisory at issue, asked the US citizens to exercise increased caution in Sri Lanka ‘due to civil unrest and terrorism’. One can understand the reference to ‘civil unrest’, but it is intriguing why specific mention has been made of ‘terrorism’. The US has also warned that ‘demonstrations could occur before, during and after the election’.
The State Department’s warning of possible protests here ‘after the election’ is of crucial import. How does the US know that there could be post-election demonstrations? Has it gone by speculation in political circles here or received intelligence indicating such a possibility?
It behoves the Sri Lankan police and security forces to take cognisance of the US warning, make inquires from their American counterparts and take precautions.
Editorial
Easter Sunday carnage: Vital aspect ignored
Monday 16th September, 2024
Former Justice Minister Dr. Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe, who is running for President, has dropped a bombshell. Taking part in a Sirasa TV programme, the other day, he hinted at the possibility of some world powers having had a hand in the Easter Sunday terror attacks, which snuffed out about 270 lives and left more than 500 others injured, in 2019. He said he had opposed the handing over of the strategically important Hambantota Port to China, in 2017, and warned the Yahapalana Cabinet that another world power would seek to take control of the Trincomalee harbour, the oil tank farm near it, and the Colombo Port, and if Sri Lanka did not grant those demands, it would be plunged into a bloodbath and forced into submission.
He said the Yahapalana administration had ignored his warning and gone ahead with the Hambantota Port deal, and three months later his prediction had come true; the US asked for the Trincomalee harbour with 1.2 million acres, and India demanded the Trinco oil tanks and the East Terminal of the Colombo Port be handed over to it. Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe had sought to grant those demands and presented a bill to Parliament to amend the Land Ordinance, Dr. Rajapakshe said, adding that he had moved the Supreme Court successfully, aborting the Yahapalana government’s bid to hand over the Trincomalee harbour and 1.2 million acres. That administration’s attempt to grant India’s demand had come a cropper due to protests. A few months later, the Easter Sunday attacks had happened, Dr. Rajapakshe said, drawing parallels between the destabilisation of Sri Lanka and that of Bangladesh.
If one reads between the lines, it is not difficult to figure out what Rajapakshe chose to leave unsaid. He is not alone in suspecting that there was a foreign hand in the 2019 terrorist bombings. We have dealt with this issue in previous editorial comments.
The Presidential Commission of Inquiry (PCoI), which probed the Easter Sunday terror attacks, investigated the alleged foreign involvement in the carnage rather perfunctorily. It has devoted only an eight-page chapter in its bulky report to the alleged foreign hand in the attacks. This particular section in the commission report, in our book, lacks clarity and proper analysis. The witnesses who expressly testified that there had been ‘an external hand or conspiracy behind the attacks’, according to the PCoI report, are Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith, former President Maithripala Sirisena, former Minister Rauff Hakeem, former Minister Rishad Bathiudeen, former Governor Azath Salley, SJB MP Mujibur Rahman, former SIS Director SDIG Nilantha Jayawardena, former STF Commandant M. R. Lateef, former Chief of Defence Staff Ravindra Wijegunaratne, former SDIG CID Ravi Seneviratne and former CID Director Shani Abeysekera. Dismissing their statements as mere ipse dixits (assertions made but not proven), the PCoI report has said that no such foreign link was found (p. 472). The probe commission should have dug deeper before arriving at such a conclusion. It has, however, recommended that certain identified parties be further investigated. This has not been done.
We argued, prior to the release of the PCoI report, that it was possible that Zahran and his gang had taken orders from a fake ISIS created by a foreign spy agency. The PCoI has quoted SDIG Jayawardena as saying that an Indian named Abu Hind ‘may have triggered the attacks’: “He [Jayawardena] went on to imply that the intelligence agencies that provided him with the intelligence on 4th, 20th and 21st April 2019 may have had a hand in the attack.” According to the PCoI report, an ‘international expert on terrorism, who testified in camera, said, “Abu Hind was a character created by a section of a provincial Indian intelligence apparatus, and the intelligence that the Director SIS received on the 4th, 20th and 21st April, 2019 was from this operation and the intelligence operative pretending to be one Abu Hind.
Operatives of this outfit operate on social media pretending to be Islamic State figures. They are trained to run virtual personas.” The PCoI report says: “The testimony was that Zahran believed Abu Hind was the Islamic State regional representative. Abu Hind was in touch with both Zahran and his brother, Rilwan, and had spoken to Naufer. This part of the evidence is confirmed by the testimony of Hadiya [Zahran’s wife].” It is mentioned on page 220 of the report that according to the aforesaid international expert, ‘the Indian Central Government was not aware of the intelligence obtained by the provincial outfit’. This, we believe, is a debatable point.
Dr. Rajapakshe was the Justice Minister in the Yahapalana government, and cognisance must be taken of what he says about the Easter Sunday attacks. In fact, a thorough probe must be conducted into the alleged foreign involvement in the 2019 terror attacks, which may have been the beginning of a sinister campaign to make the Sri Lankan economy scream. Will any of the presidential candidates have the courage to promise to order a probe into this vital aspect of the Easter Sunday carnage, if elected?
-
Features4 days ago
Tea trouble brews for Sri Lankan presidential hopefuls
-
News5 days ago
Prez poll 2024: ITAK alleges bid to confuse Tamil electorate, reiterates backing for Sajith
-
News5 days ago
Anura criticises Ranil’s erratic behaviour
-
Features4 days ago
Countdown Week in Sri Lanka and Debate Week in the US
-
News6 days ago
ITAK reaffirms support for Sajith Premadasa
-
Features4 days ago
Ranil talks to the Sunday papers, fields wide-ranging questions
-
News5 days ago
Immigration and Emigration Chief ordered to appear before SC for failing to comply with order
-
News4 days ago
SJB council member urges women to vote for Sajith Premadasa for his commitment to women’s issues