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Sri Lanka to miss budget revenue target for 33rd year running in 2024
State of the budget report estimates 14% shortfall in revenue against budget projection
Sri Lanka is projected to fall short of its budget target on revenue to GDP (gross domestic product) for the 33rd consecutive year in 2024, according to the recently released ‘State of the Budget Report 2024’.The State of the Budget Report is compiled annually by Verité Research and published on PublicFinance.lk, Sri Lanka’s premier platform for economic insights.
The report provides a robust analysis and objective assessment of the fiscal, financial and economic estimates in Sri Lanka’s annual budget. It mirrors the scope of a budget report that is expected to be published by the parliamentary Committee on Public Finance (COPF), with the same aim: of helping improve informed engagement with the budget, both in public and in parliament. The State of the Budget Report by Verité Research has consistently been more accurate on budget outcomes than projections of the government, which are approved by parliament. It thereby forms an important additional input for professional economic analysis and decision making in Sri Lanka.
Sri Lanka has not met a revenue to GDP target set in a budget since 1991. Most recently, the parliamentary committee on Ways and Means reported that tax revenue fell 13% short of the budgeted target in 2023.
For 2024, the government is expecting revenue of LKR 4,164 billion, a 42% increase from its revised projections for 2023. However, the State of the Budget Report projects a 14% shortfall, with revenue of only LKR 3,570 billion.
In the report, 61% of the projected shortfall is attributed to overestimation of revenue from Value Added Tax (VAT). The remaining 39% is attributed to the overestimation of revenue from corporate income tax, personal income tax, Social Security Contribution Levy (SSCL), and customs import duty.
Sri Lanka has the highest interest-cost-to-revenue ratio in the world and reducing this ratio is critical for macroeconomic stability and sustainability. The budget for 2024 expects to lower this ratio to 64%. However, the revenue projections in the State of the Budget Report, together with the government calculation of interest costs, suggests this ratio will exceed 70%, as it has in the last few years. Sri Lanka will, thereby, fall short of the economic recovery plan agreed with the IMF, on what economists consider a critical indicator of debt sustainability.
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Showers above 100 mm are likely at some places in the Eastern and Uva provinces and showers about 50-75 mm in other areas
WEATHER FORECAST FOR 08 JANUARY 2026
Issued at 05.30 a.m. on 08 January 2026 by the Department of Meteorology
The depression over the Bay of Bengal, located to the southeast of Sri Lanka, was centered near latitude 5.3°N and longitude 86.0°E, about 490 km southeast of Pottuvil, at 11:30 p.m. yesterday (07). It is expected to move west-northwestwards and towards the eastern coast of the island during next 24 hours. This system is likely to intensify further into a deep depression during the next 12 hours.
Cloudy skies can be expected over most parts of the island.
Showers or thundershowers will occur at times in the Northern, North-central, Eastern, Uva, Central and Southern provinces. Showers or thundershowers may occur at several places elsewhere in the Island after 1.00 p.m. Heavy showers above 100 mm are likely at some places in the Eastern and Uva provinces. Fairly Heavy showers about (50 – 75) mm are likely at some places in the other areas of the island.
Strong winds about (50-60) kmph can be expected at times over the Eastern slopes of the central hills, the Northern, North-central, North-western and Eastern provinces and in Hambantota, Gampaha, Colombo and Monaragala districts.
The general public is kindly requested to take adequate precautions to minimize damages caused by temporary localized strong winds and lightning during thundershowers.
News
Easter Sunday attacks: Govt. says wife of Katuwapitiya Church bomber alive
Minister of Public Security Ananda Wijepala told Parliament yesterday that information uncovered during ongoing investigations indicated that Pulasthini Mahendran, also known as Sara Jasmine, linked to the 2019 Easter Sunday terror attacks, was not dead.
Responding to a question raised by Opposition MP Mujibur Rahuman, the Minister said there was no confirmation that Sara Jasmine was currently in India, despite speculation to that effect. He added that investigators suspected she may have fled the country and stressed that further inquiries were underway to establish her whereabouts.
“If necessary, the government will take steps to obtain a warrant,” Wijepala said, noting that legal action related to the Easter attacks had already been initiated, based on available evidence.
Minister Wijepala said the new government had launched an thorough probe to determine whether a political or other conspiracy had been behind the attacks that killed more than 270 people in 2019. However, he declined to disclose certain details in Parliament, citing the risk of hampering investigations.
Sara Jasmine, Mohammed Hashtun, who bombed St. Sebastian’s Church, in Katuwapitiya, in 2019, was long presumed to have died in a suicide blast in Sainthamaruthu, days after the attacks. Wijepala said attempts by previous administrations to establish her death had failed, with recent reports indicating that DNA tests conducted at the time were inconclusive.
During the debate, MP Rahuman recalled that senior figures, including then-Opposition MP Nalinda Jayatissa, had previously claimed Sara Jasmine was in India. He questioned why authorities had not sought an open warrant for her arrest whether the issue had been raised in talks with Indian officials.
Wijepala, responding on behalf of Deputy Minister of Defence Arun Jayasekara, said the government would not hesitate to pursue legal action, including warrants, if necessary.
By Saman Indrajith
News
Indian Army Chief here
The Chief of the Indian Army Staff (COAS), General Upendra Dwivedi arrived in Sri Lanka yesterday (07). On arrival, the COAS was accorded a Guard of Honour by the Sri Lanka Army.
The Indian HC said that: “He will engage with senior military and civil leadership, including the Commander of the Sri Lanka Army, Deputy Minister of Defence and the Defence Secretary; and hold detailed discussions on matters of mutual interest, including training cooperation, capacity building and regional security.
During the visit, the COAS will address officers at the Defence Services Command and Staff College (DSCSC) and interact with officers and trainees at the Army War College, Buttala, reflecting India’s strong commitment to defence education and professional military exchanges with Sri Lanka.
General Dwivedi will also pay homage at the IPKF War Memorial, honouring the supreme sacrifice of Indian soldiers.”
General Dwivedi arrived here from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) where he attended several events during 05 to 06 January.
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