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Sri Lanka to miss budget revenue target for 33rd year running in 2024

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State of the budget report estimates 14% shortfall in revenue against budget projection

Sri Lanka is projected to fall short of its budget target on revenue to GDP (gross domestic product) for the 33rd consecutive year in 2024, according to the recently released ‘State of the Budget Report 2024’.The State of the Budget Report is compiled annually by Verité Research and published on PublicFinance.lk, Sri Lanka’s premier platform for economic insights.

The report provides a robust analysis and objective assessment of the fiscal, financial and economic estimates in Sri Lanka’s annual budget. It mirrors the scope of a budget report that is expected to be published by the parliamentary Committee on Public Finance (COPF), with the same aim: of helping improve informed engagement with the budget, both in public and in parliament. The State of the Budget Report by Verité Research has consistently been more accurate on budget outcomes than projections of the government, which are approved by parliament. It thereby forms an important additional input for professional economic analysis and decision making in Sri Lanka.

Sri Lanka has not met a revenue to GDP target set in a budget since 1991. Most recently, the parliamentary committee on Ways and Means reported that tax revenue fell 13% short of the budgeted target in 2023.

For 2024, the government is expecting revenue of LKR 4,164 billion, a 42% increase from its revised projections for 2023. However, the State of the Budget Report projects a 14% shortfall, with revenue of only LKR 3,570 billion.

In the report, 61% of the projected shortfall is attributed to overestimation of revenue from Value Added Tax (VAT). The remaining 39% is attributed to the overestimation of revenue from corporate income tax, personal income tax, Social Security Contribution Levy (SSCL), and customs import duty.

Sri Lanka has the highest interest-cost-to-revenue ratio in the world and reducing this ratio is critical for macroeconomic stability and sustainability. The budget for 2024 expects to lower this ratio to 64%. However, the revenue projections in the State of the Budget Report, together with the government calculation of interest costs, suggests this ratio will exceed 70%, as it has in the last few years. Sri Lanka will, thereby, fall short of the economic recovery plan agreed with the IMF, on what economists consider a critical indicator of debt sustainability.



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Measures taken to promote integrity in State Revenue Collection Institutions reviewed

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A discussion on the functioning of the Internal Affairs Units established within state institutions and the implementation of the National Anti-Corruption Action Plan 2025–2029 was held at the Presidential Secretariat on 29 May under the patronage of the Secretary to the President Dr Nandika Sanath Kumanayake. The meeting focused on advancing Sri Lanka’s anti-corruption efforts, particularly within key revenue-generating and revenue-collecting institutions, namely the Sri Lanka Customs, the Inland Revenue Department, and the Department of Excise.

During the discussion, the measures currently being implemented to strengthen anti-corruption initiatives and foster a culture of integrity within these institutions were reviewed. Attention was also given to future initiatives aimed at further reinforcing ethical governance and promoting a stronger culture of integrity across these organisations.

The meeting was attended by Additional Secretary to the President Ms Chandima Wickramasinghe, Director General of Customs W. S. K. Liyanagama, Commissioner General of Inland Revenue R. P. H. Fernando, and Commissioner General of Excise M. B. N. A. Pemarathna, together with the heads of the Internal Affairs Units of the respective institutions.

(PMD)

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India should be kept out of PC polls, matters related to 13 A – Mano

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Mano

Leader of the Tamil Progressive Alliance (TPA), Mano Ganeshan, MP, said that India shouldn’t intervene here regarding the long-delayed Provincial Council polls.

The former Yahapalana Minister of National Co-existence, Dialogue and Official Languages (2015-2018), Ganeshan, who represents the main Opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) in the current Parliament, stressed that New Delhi’s intervention wouldn’t do any good for them or for us.

Lawmaker Ganeshan said so when The Island asked him whether the TPA would ask India to pressure the NPP government to conduct PC polls, last held in 2014, during Mahinda Rajapaksa’s second term. Ganeshan said: “India shouldn’t get involved in the issue at hand . Such a strategy is also in their interest, particularly in the context of the evolving global order. India should not be perceived as a pro-Tamil state, but rather as a state that supports Sri Lanka as a whole.”

Ganeshan said that the Indian state bears a moral responsibility in this matter. “That responsibility arises from the fact that India’s diplomacy and military intervention played a decisive role in neutralising the Tamil armed struggle in Sri Lanka. Although India’s mission remained unfinished, it nevertheless lost nearly two thousand soldiers in the process. There was also a prelude to this involvement, when Tamil militant groups received training in India. Consequently, the Indian connection became a sensitive issue for both the Sinhalese and Tamils of Sri Lanka.”

But, whatever had happened, the national issue should be settled among us. ” The solution must be found and settled within Sri Lanka itself. We do not need Western interventions in this regard.”

” In recent years, whenever we in the Tamil Progressive Alliance (TPA) have met Indian dignitaries—including the Prime Minister, the External Affairs Minister, and, most recently, the Vice President—the subjects of the 13th Amendment and Provincial Councils have never featured on our agenda.”

The 13th Amendment is part of Sri Lanka’s Constitution. Therefore, it is for Sri Lankans themselves to decide whether to retain, improve, fully implement, reform, or even repeal it, Ganeshan said.

MP Ganeshan found fault with those who represented the Northern and Eastern provinces for failing to utilise the goodwill and influence India enjoyed with successive Governments of Sri Lanka to pursue an amicable political settlement. The parliamentarian said that they should acted after the end of the war in May, 2009. Unfortunately, they failed to effectively use the Provincial Council framework to consolidate their political position and advance further, thereby earning the confidence of both India and successive Sinhala-majority governments, MP Ganeshan said.

Responding to another query, MP Ganeshan said: “

We should keep the ethnic issue separate from bilateral relations with India, while deepening economic connectivity and cooperation on the basis of mutual benefit and a win-win partnership.”

By Shamindra Ferdinando

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US boost for SLAF

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Helicopters from the US. (Pic courtesy SLAF)

Sri Lanka has taken delivery of 10 TH-57 ‘Sea Ranger’ multi-role helicopters provided by the United States of America to the Sri Lanka Air Force. Air Forces headquarters said that the helicopters arrived here by sea.

The SLAF has said: “The arrival of these aircraft marks a significant milestone in the longstanding defence cooperation between Sri Lanka and the United States and represents a valuable contribution towards enhancing the operational and training capabilities of the Sri Lanka Air Force.

“The helicopters are currently undergoing configurations and technical preparations at SLAF Base Ratmalana. Following the completion of requisite inspections, acceptance procedures and test flights, the aircraft will be inducted into service and deployed for operational duties.

“The TH-57 fleet is expected to significantly strengthen the Air Force’s aviation training capacity while enhancing the ability to support a broad spectrum of national requirements. The aircraft will primarily be employed for pilot training, humanitarian assistance and disaster response (HADR) operations, search and rescue (SAR) missions and other public service commitments undertaken by the Sri Lanka Air Force.”

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