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Sampath Bank on track to be ‘attractively’ valued by investors in 2025

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Lending portfolio expected to grow by 6.5% in 2024

Significant decline in impairment charges forecasted for the current year

By Sanath Nanayakkare

First Capital Research says that it expects Sampath Bank’s lending portfolio to grow by 6.5% in 2024 followed by a 10.0% growth in 2025 as the researchers expect the GDP to record a positive turnaround of 2%-3% in 2024.In addition to that, the strong capital buffer of the Bank was attributed to the expected growth in its lending portfolio.

These key indicators hence signal a better value proposition from the Bank for its shareholders going forward.

“Sampath Bank recorded a robust 26.0%YoY increase in net earnings, reaching LKR 3.8Bn, driven by a 14.7%YoY growth in Net Interest Income (NII) and a notable reduction in impairment charges. However, a surge in the effective tax rate to 59.7% led to a QoQ decline in net earnings by 27.0%. Reflecting the economic recovery, the loan book marginally expanded by 2.6%QoQ to LKR 807.5Bn, while the deposit base improved by 5.2%QoQ to LKR 1.3Tn, with the CASA base reaching 33.6%,” First Capital says.

“Furthermore, we anticipate a projected 53.6%YoY decline in impairment charges in 2024, which is expected to drive a profit growth of 14.6%YoY to LKR 20.5Bn in 2024, followed by a growth of 12.0%YoY to LKR 23.0Bn in 2025. Given the positive sector outlook and potential re-rating, Sampath is forecasted to trade at 1.0x PBV, resulting in a fair value of LKR 135.0 for 2025, representing a significant 72.4% upside from the current market price of LKR 78.3,” the research group predicts.

“NII expansion and impairment contraction propel strong YoY earnings growth. Sampath’s net earnings rose by 26.0%YoY to LKR 3.8Bn in 1Q2024, driven by a notable growth in NII by 14.7%YoY and a significant reduction in impairment charges by 35.4%YoY. However, a spike in the effective tax rate to 59.7% led to a QoQ decline in net earnings by 27.0%. The growth in NII was primarily due to a reduction in interest expense (-12.1%YoY), outpacing the decline in interest income (-2.4%YoY).”

“However, NIMs contracted to 5.24% as of 31st Mar 2024, with an expected further decline to 4.03% in 2024. Net fee and commission income saw a 17.3%YoY decline to LKR 4.6Bn due to reduced income from trade-related activities, including lower commission rates for import-related transactions, decreased trade volumes, and LKR appreciation against the USD (c.7.0%YTD). However, fees generated from credit, electronic channels, cards, and remittance-related activities showed growth during the quarter. Moreover, Sampath reported a net trading loss of LKR 4.5Bn in 1Q2024, contrasting with a gain of LKR 1.7Bn in 1Q2023, primarily due to revaluation losses on forward exchange contracts. However, realized exchange gains of LKR 0.6Bn offset the turnaround, compared to the loss of LKR 4.2Bn recorded in 1Q2023.”

“Sampath’s loans and advances exhibited conservative growth QoQ, with a modest uptick of 2.6% to LKR 807.5Bn driven by a 2.8%QoQ expansion in LKR-denominated loans, while foreign currency denominated loans experienced a slight decline of -1.6%QoQ, amidst LKR appreciation against the USD during the period.

“With an uptick in Demand and Savings deposits on a QoQ basis, the bank’s CASA ratio improved to 33.6% during 1Q2024. We project the CASA ratio to normalize and further enhance to 40.0% from 2024 to 2026, positioning the bank with a cost effective source of funds compared to peers, thus widening the interest spread and bolstering its competitive edge.” First Capital Research’s projections indicate.



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Rs. 1 million fine proposed on substandard plastic producers

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Dr. Ravindra Kariyawasam

The government’s proposal to raise fines on manufacturers of substandard plastic products to as much as Rs. 1 million is expected to trigger a major compliance shift within Sri Lanka’s plastics industry, correcting long-standing market distortions caused by weak enforcement.

Environment Deputy Minister Anton Jayakody said the move targets producers who continue to bypass approved standards, undercutting compliant manufacturers and exacerbating environmental damage.

Environment Ministry Advisor Dr. Ravindra Kariyawasam said the initiative represents a structural market correction rather than a purely environmental intervention.

“Non-compliant producers have enjoyed an artificial cost advantage for years, distorting pricing and discouraging legitimate investment,” Kariyawasam told The Island Financial Review. “Meaningful penalties are essential to restore fairness and industry discipline.”

He said the widespread circulation of low-grade plastic products has eroded consumer confidence and delayed the sector’s transition towards higher-value and sustainable manufacturing.

Industry analysts note that a Rs. 1 million fine would significantly alter risk calculations for marginal operators, forcing upgrades in machinery, testing and compliance or pushing weaker players out of the market.

Kariyawasam stressed that the policy is intended to support responsible businesses rather than suppress industry growth.

“Manufacturers investing in recycling, biodegradable alternatives and quality assurance should not be penalised by competing with environmentally damaging, low-cost products,” he said.

The Deputy Minister indicated that tighter enforcement will be paired with policy support for sustainable packaging and circular-economy initiatives, aligning the sector with emerging global trade and environmental standards.

From a business perspective, the proposed regulation is likely to impact pricing, supply chains and capital investment decisions, while improving the long-term credibility of Sri Lanka’s plastics industry in both domestic and export markets.

By Ifham Nizam

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First Capital to unveil Sri Lanka’s Economic Outlook and Investment Strategies for 2026

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First Capital Holdings PLC (the Group), a subsidiary of JXG (Janashakthi Group) and a pioneering force in Sri Lanka’s investment landscape, is set to host the 12th edition of its renowned ‘First Capital Investor Symposium’ on 22 January 2026 at Cinnamon Life Colombo, starting from 5.30 pm onwards.

The 12th Edition will focus on Sri Lanka’s Economic Outlook for 2026, offering attendees a comprehensive analysis of market forecasts, investment strategies and emerging opportunities in the capital markets. The symposium serves as a crucial gathering for investors seeking insights to navigate the evolving economic landscape and make sound, strategic decisions.

As a leading investment institution, First Capital remains committed to promoting informed decision-making through comprehensive research and market analysis. By hosting this annual symposium, the organisation reinforces its role as a trusted partner in Sri Lanka’s capital markets, providing a premier platform for investors, professionals, and industry leaders to exchange knowledge, explore opportunities and build meaningful connections.

A key highlight of this year’s agenda will be First Capital’s presentation on the Economic and Investment Outlook, outlining market conditions and investment strategies for the period ahead. The presentation will be delivered by Ranjan Ranatunga, Assistant Vice President – Research of First Capital Holdings PLC.

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Rivers, Rights, Resilience Forum 2026 begins in Colombo

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Oxfam in Asia commenced the Rivers, Rights, Resilience Forum (RRRF) 2026, a three-day regional forum bringing together water experts, policymakers, civil society, researchers, and community leaders from across South Asia and beyond to strengthen cooperation on shared river systems and climate resilience.

The Forum is part of the Transboundary Rivers of South Asia (TROSA) programme, supported by the Government of Sweden, which works on the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna (GBM) river basins, while also encouraging cross-basin learning at the regional and global levels. This year’s theme is “Building Resilient Communities and Ecosystems.” The Forum is co-organised by Oxfam in Asia and Dev Pro, Sri Lanka.

The forum opened with a welcome address by John Samuel, Regional Director, Oxfam in Asia, who highlighted the deep connection between rivers, politics, climate change, and sustainability. He underlined how rivers shape both environmental and social outcomes across South Asia and called for stronger collaboration between governments and civil society.

“Today building resilience is important in terms of climate and politics, and when civic space is shrinking, we should all work in solidarity,” he said.

Speaking at the Forum, Chamindry Saparamadu, Executive Director of DevPro shared examples of how communities in Sri Lanka have taken actions to ensure equitable access to water resources through catchment protection initiatives, community-based water societies etc. She further highlighted that learning exchanges would be useful to further strengthen inter-provincial water governance in Sri Lanka.

The Chief Guest, Syeda Rizwana Hasan, Advisor, Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change and Ministry of Water Resources, Bangladesh, in her video message, emphasised the need for regional cooperation among South Asian countries beyond the upstream–downstream identity.

“Climate change will make water scarce, so South Asian countries have to come together to work on the common interest of their communities. Rivers are not just ecology but economics as well for communities. Forums like this help us to share our experience and learn from each other,” she said.

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