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Sampath Bank on track to be ‘attractively’ valued by investors in 2025

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Lending portfolio expected to grow by 6.5% in 2024

Significant decline in impairment charges forecasted for the current year

By Sanath Nanayakkare

First Capital Research says that it expects Sampath Bank’s lending portfolio to grow by 6.5% in 2024 followed by a 10.0% growth in 2025 as the researchers expect the GDP to record a positive turnaround of 2%-3% in 2024.In addition to that, the strong capital buffer of the Bank was attributed to the expected growth in its lending portfolio.

These key indicators hence signal a better value proposition from the Bank for its shareholders going forward.

“Sampath Bank recorded a robust 26.0%YoY increase in net earnings, reaching LKR 3.8Bn, driven by a 14.7%YoY growth in Net Interest Income (NII) and a notable reduction in impairment charges. However, a surge in the effective tax rate to 59.7% led to a QoQ decline in net earnings by 27.0%. Reflecting the economic recovery, the loan book marginally expanded by 2.6%QoQ to LKR 807.5Bn, while the deposit base improved by 5.2%QoQ to LKR 1.3Tn, with the CASA base reaching 33.6%,” First Capital says.

“Furthermore, we anticipate a projected 53.6%YoY decline in impairment charges in 2024, which is expected to drive a profit growth of 14.6%YoY to LKR 20.5Bn in 2024, followed by a growth of 12.0%YoY to LKR 23.0Bn in 2025. Given the positive sector outlook and potential re-rating, Sampath is forecasted to trade at 1.0x PBV, resulting in a fair value of LKR 135.0 for 2025, representing a significant 72.4% upside from the current market price of LKR 78.3,” the research group predicts.

“NII expansion and impairment contraction propel strong YoY earnings growth. Sampath’s net earnings rose by 26.0%YoY to LKR 3.8Bn in 1Q2024, driven by a notable growth in NII by 14.7%YoY and a significant reduction in impairment charges by 35.4%YoY. However, a spike in the effective tax rate to 59.7% led to a QoQ decline in net earnings by 27.0%. The growth in NII was primarily due to a reduction in interest expense (-12.1%YoY), outpacing the decline in interest income (-2.4%YoY).”

“However, NIMs contracted to 5.24% as of 31st Mar 2024, with an expected further decline to 4.03% in 2024. Net fee and commission income saw a 17.3%YoY decline to LKR 4.6Bn due to reduced income from trade-related activities, including lower commission rates for import-related transactions, decreased trade volumes, and LKR appreciation against the USD (c.7.0%YTD). However, fees generated from credit, electronic channels, cards, and remittance-related activities showed growth during the quarter. Moreover, Sampath reported a net trading loss of LKR 4.5Bn in 1Q2024, contrasting with a gain of LKR 1.7Bn in 1Q2023, primarily due to revaluation losses on forward exchange contracts. However, realized exchange gains of LKR 0.6Bn offset the turnaround, compared to the loss of LKR 4.2Bn recorded in 1Q2023.”

“Sampath’s loans and advances exhibited conservative growth QoQ, with a modest uptick of 2.6% to LKR 807.5Bn driven by a 2.8%QoQ expansion in LKR-denominated loans, while foreign currency denominated loans experienced a slight decline of -1.6%QoQ, amidst LKR appreciation against the USD during the period.

“With an uptick in Demand and Savings deposits on a QoQ basis, the bank’s CASA ratio improved to 33.6% during 1Q2024. We project the CASA ratio to normalize and further enhance to 40.0% from 2024 to 2026, positioning the bank with a cost effective source of funds compared to peers, thus widening the interest spread and bolstering its competitive edge.” First Capital Research’s projections indicate.



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ADB delivers rapid support as Middle East impact spreads

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ADB President Masato Kanda (on the right) joins the Nikkei Forum on the future of Asia, in Tokyo on 10th June. The discussion focused heavily on the Middle East conflict and the severe economic uncertainty it is causing across Asia and the Pacific

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is acting quickly and decisively with $4 billion in financing to help countries withstand the impact of the Middle East conflict, including about $3 billion requested by governments and $1 billion provided as trade finance for energy and food imports.

“ADB is acting with speed and scale to support countries experiencing a range of impacts from the Middle East conflict, including pressure on finances, remittances, tourism, and fuel and fertilizer supplies,” said ADB President Masato Kanda. “At this time of acute uncertainty and risk, we are deploying our full suite of crisis response instruments—including budget support, trade finance, and a new mechanism to rapidly repurpose existing portfolio funds—to deliver the tailored and timely support our members, from large to small, need to safeguard their economies and communities.”

ADB has received formal requests for support from 15 affected governments across the region, including previously announced requests from Bangladesh, Fiji, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka. The requests, which follow a financial support package announced by ADB in late March, range in size from $15 million to $1.5 billion and include policy-based loans, countercyclical financing, rapid repurposing of existing sovereign portfolio funds, and emergency assistance loans. ADB is in discussions with an additional 4 countries facing continued impacts on their economies.

In addition to these requests, the Government of India has requested $1.5 billion in ADB financing to build and accelerate resilience and to sustain reform-based urban transformation and clean energy objectives. The proposed assistance includes a $1 billion policy-based loan under the Urban Transformation and Investment Program to sustain momentum in urban infrastructure investment and reforms, and $500 million under the Accelerating Affordable and Inclusive Rooftop Solar Systems Development Program to expand clean energy access, reduce dependence on imported fuels, strengthen domestic manufacturing, install battery energy storage systems, promote circular economy initiatives, and enhance long-term energy security.

Complementing this sovereign assistance, ADB has reactivated support for oil imports under its Trade and Supply Chain Finance Program (TSCFP) on an exceptional basis for a limited period to soften the impact of rising oil prices and supply chain disruptions. Since 1 March, ADB’s TSCFP has delivered $673 million to support oil and gas imports and $390 million for food security across 9 countries, helping maintain access to essential supplies amid global market disruptions. Trade finance support to the Cook Islands is also expected to commence soon as part of ADB’s broader support for vulnerable small island developing states.

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Research highlights need to empower tea smallholders for a climate-resilient future

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A new study by researchers from the University of Sri Jayewardenepura and the Ministry of Irrigation argues that strengthening the knowledge and adaptive capacity of tea smallholders is critical to safeguarding the future of Sri Lanka’s tea industry in the face of climate change.

The study, titled “Enhancing Climate Resilience through Informal Education: The Case of Tea Smallholder Farmers in Sri Lanka,” was authored by Dr. Nuwan Gunarathne, Mahendra Peiris, Thilini Cooray and G.W. Dimalka Perera. It examines the growing challenges confronting tea smallholders and identifies practical measures that can help build a more resilient and sustainable tea sector.

Tea smallholders account for more than 74 percent of Sri Lanka’s total tea production, making them the backbone of one of the country’s most important export industries. However, many farmers are struggling with declining productivity and profitability due to labour shortages, limited technical knowledge, inefficient farming practices and the use of poor-quality agricultural inputs. These long-standing problems are now being exacerbated by climate change.

The researchers note that irregular rainfall patterns, prolonged droughts, rising temperatures and soil degradation are increasingly affecting tea yields and farmer incomes. They also point to inefficiencies in fertiliser use, observing that Sri Lanka currently applies nearly one kilogram of fertiliser to produce one kilogram of made tea, despite actual nutrient replacement requirements being significantly lower. This not only raises production costs but also contributes to environmental degradation.

According to the study, climate-smart agriculture and regenerative farming practices offer practical pathways to address these challenges. Techniques such as rainwater harvesting, micro-irrigation, drought-tolerant crop varieties, improved canopy management and organic soil enhancement can help farmers maintain productivity while reducing dependence on costly chemical inputs. Several locally developed innovations, including herbicide-free integrated weed management, deep envelope forking and stripe spreading of tea bushes, have already demonstrated promising results in improving yields, restoring soil health and enhancing resilience to climate stress.

However, the authors emphasise that technology alone is insufficient. Farmer education and capacity building are equally important.

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Sri Lanka lands a spot in elite Global Actuarial Boot Camp

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Azusa Kubota- Resident Representative, UNDP, Dr. Vagisha Gunasekara -Chief Economist, UNDP, Dr. Ajith De Mel – Chairman, IRCSL, Shyamalie Attanayake- Asst. Director Actuarial, IRCSL, Merideth Randles- Senior Consultant, UNDP-Milliman GAIN, Prechhya Mathema- UNDP-Milliman GAIN, pose for a photograph with distinguished academics and members of AASL .

‘Goodbye to guesswork, hello to hard numbers for a more secure financial future’

Sri Lanka has just secured a coveted seat at a high-powered global table – one where number-crunchers don’t just balance spreadsheets but help save economies from disaster. The country has been selected for the UNDP–Milliman Global Actuarial Initiative (GAIN), a kind of financial “special forces” training programme for developing nations.

When The Island Financial Review told an actuarial expert at a roundtable held at the Kingsbury Colombo on June 12 that it knew little about what an actuary does, this is how she explained it: “Think of actuaries as the fortune-tellers of finance. We use maths, data, and risk models to answer questions like: Will our pension system survive an ageing population? Can insurance handle a flood of climate disasters? For too long, Sri Lanka has lacked enough of these experts. GAIN aims to fix that.”

When asked to elaborate, she continued: “The initiative, a brainchild of the UN Development Programme and Milliman Inc., a global actuarial heavyweight, was launched in 2022 at the UN General Assembly. Since then, it has spread to 16 countries, mobilised over 185 Milliman volunteers, and delivered more than 32,000 hours of pro-bono brainpower – meaning, free expert insights. Now, it’s Sri Lanka’s turn.”

From 8–12 June 2026, Milliman ambassadors were on the ground, huddling with everyone from the Insurance Regulatory Commission and the Insurance Association to universities, chartered accountants, and local insurers. Their mission was to diagnose the country’s actuarial strengths and weaknesses – and then build a battle plan.

That plan takes the form of the Sri Lanka Actuarial Capacity Roadmap (2026–2028). It will spell out how to plug skills gaps, boost professional training, and apply actuarial smarts to national priorities like social protection and disaster risk financing.

As part of the programme, a two-day professionalism boot camp was delivered to members of the Actuarial Association of Sri Lanka (AASL) – the island’s official actuarial body, recognised by regulators in 2024.

The mission wrapped on 12 June with a stakeholder workshop to refine the roadmap, to which the financial media had also been invited to spread the word about the little-known but key number-crunchers. The core responsibility of actuaries is to ensure a future where Sri Lanka doesn’t just react to crises but calculates their odds – and beats them.

“This isn’t just about maths,” another AASL member told The Island Financial Review. “It’s about economic resilience, financial security, and sustainable development, powered by people who can see the future in a formula.”

The event reflected the need for a clear policy-level commitment to strengthening actuarial studies in Sri Lanka at national level, rather than allowing a handful of gifted math brains to go abroad and struggle through costly, self-funded qualifications to become actuarial experts.

By Sanath Nanayakkare

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