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Midweek Review

Foreign Exchange Crisis

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By Dr. C. S. Weeraratna

csweera@sltnet.lk Sri Lanka is facing a deepening financial crisis. According to media reports there is a short supply of essential items such as fuel, medicine and gas for domestic use attributed to the foreign exchange (FE) crisis. Dhammika Perera (DP) has proposed a seven-pronged strategy to overcome Sri Lanka’s foreign exchange crisis (The Island 30 January).

One of the strategies suggested by DP is that the government build a university town consisting of five universities within 30 minutes from the Bandaranaike International Airport at Katunayake, to accommodate 150,000 students (30,000 at each university). This is an excellent idea but it will cost the government at least Rs10 billion at the rate of Rs 2 billion per university. Once the universities are built, it will be necessary to get qualified academic staff and suitable accommodation. Further it will take a couple of years to build the five universities. Some need to have laboratories and equipping these adequately is expensive, time consuming and requires a substantial amount of FE. It is a long-term project. Currently, there are 17 universities located in different parts of the country. Perhaps, it may be more realistic if five selected universities already functioning are developed to meet the required standards. Instead of having all the five selected universities in Katunayaka it would be desirable if there is at least one in the north and another one in the east so that those in these regions are also benefited.

Another strategy proposed by DP is to build two hospitals like Singapore’s Mount Elizabeth with internationally recognised facilities. As in the case of establishing new universities, building two such hospitals will take a long time, perhaps two to three years and will require a great deal of foreign exchange. Developing some existing hospitals to meet the stipulated standards may be a realistic alternative.

The total extent under coconut cultivation in Sri Lanka is around 400,000 ha and about 325,000 ha are small holdings. The annual production of coconut has been fluctuating around 3,000 million nuts, (approximately 6000 nuts per hectare). As suggested by DP, developing the coconut industry by planting 1.5 million nuts annually is very timely. At the same time the state of the existing coconut plantations should be looked into. If the production of the existing coconut lands is increased by 1000 nuts per hectare per year through better management and applying organic and inorganic fertilisers, the total production can be increased substantially within a year which will increase the export income from coconut.

One of the main strategies to solve the current FE crisis would be to increase export earnings and reduce expenditure on imports. Most of the activities involved are short term while the others are medium or long term.

Increase export earnings

The dire need to increase our export earnings to meet the severe financial crisis we are facing today has been emphasised by many. Increasing exports is of paramount importance to improve the present FE situation. A major source of FE is the plantation sector. Around 800,000 ha are cultivated with plantation crops tea, rubber and coconut and this sector, in the last few years, earned nearly Rs. 360 billion annually. However, as indicated in table 1, these major export crops do not show a substantial increase in production during the last five years and the contribution from this sector has remained at nearly 20 percent of the export income. Consequently, strategies need to be implemented to increase production and thereby, FE earnings from this sector. There are many state sector organisations to implement such strategies.

As shown in Table 1 tea production has been fluctuating around 300 million kg per year during the last five years, in spite of several institutions assigned to the tea sector. The average tea yields are considerably lower than the potential yields. It has been reported that some of the cultivars developed by the Tea Research Institute of Sri Lanka had been yielding around 8,000 kg per hectare in South India under commercial conditions but the average tea yield in Sri Lanka is much lower. In the smallholder tea sector the average yield is around 1800 kg per hectare and in the estate sector it is about 1200 kg per hectare. In 2020 tea earned Rs. 230 billion in FE. Better management practices in the short term would increase the quantity and quality of the tea produced making it possible to increase FE earnings substantially from the current Rs. 230 billion.

Rubber is another important export crop. In 2017 it earned nearly Rs. 6 billion in foreign exchange but has decreased during the following three years. Based on Central Bank annual reports, the total Rubber production in 2010 was 152.9 million kg and by 2019 it had plummeted to 74.8 million kg. The corresponding average yields are 1561 kg per hectare and 665 kg per hectare respectively. These figures indicate that the Sri Lankan rubber sector is ailing in spite of several institutions assigned to promote rubber production in the country. With the current higher rubber prices it would be possible to earn more FE by increasing rubber production through better management practices which would produce results in the short term. In the last few years the rubber sector was affected by many factors, one of which is ineffective management.

Coconut production too has declined during the last five years as shown in Table 1. This appalling situation in the plantation sector can be attributed to many factors. If the productivity of this sector is raised, by implementing better management practices it would be possible to increase foreign exchange earnings. Most of these practices would produce results in the short term.

A large number of crops, other than tea, rubber and coconut, cultivated in Sri Lanka have high potential as export crops. There are 24 agro ecological zones, each characterised by a specific climate and soil. This makes possible the cultivation of different types of crops such as spice crops, tuberous crops, horticultural (fruit crops) and floricultural crops and medicinal herbs.

Sri Lanka is famous for spices. The most sought after spice crops are cinnamon, pepper, cloves, cardamoms, nutmeg, mace and vanilla which grow in abundance mainly in the wet and intermediate zone. In 2020 the county earned nearly Rs.60 billion by exporting spice crops.

Cinnamon is the most important spice commodity in the spice sector. In 2019, it earned around Rs. 32 billion in FE. The production of cinnamon has been fluctuating around 20,000 tonnes per year during the last few years. Sri Lanka received its first ever Geographical Indication (GI) certification when the European Union (EU) Commission on 2 February, 2022 granted GI status to Ceylon Cinnamon. This would increase the demand for Sri Lanka cinnamon.

Pepper is the second most important commodity among spices. It is grown in the wet and intermediate zones mostly as a mixed crop. The Sri Lankan Pepper has a higher piperine content which gives it a superior quality and pungency. Annual production of pepper too has remained stagnant at around 20,000 kg.

Other spices such as cloves, cardamom, nutmeg and mace have the potential to earn a substantial amount of FE. With the increase of international demand for natural products, and the government’s focus on enhancing and diversifying its value added range, spices and essential oils extracted from these crops will continue to earn more FE.

Dehydrated food is another agricultural product which has the potential to earn much needed FE. During some months there is a glut of fruits and exporting dehydrated or canned fruits would bring in an appreciable amount of FE.

In any programme or plan to increase foreign exchange earnings from the agriculture sector, agro-industries have to be given much emphasis. A large number of crops cultivated in Sri Lanka have considerable potential in various agro-industries. However only rubber, coconut and a few fruit crops are used in industries. Crops such as cassava, horticultural and floricultural crops, medicinal herbs, cane, bamboo, sunflower, castor and ayurvedic herbs have a considerable industrial or export potential but are not cultivated to any appreciable extent. Development of agro-industries will also increase export income and will have a tremendous impact on the economy of the country and also provide employment opportunities to rural people. The private sector can get involved in such projects for which appropriate technical assistance needs to be provided by the relevant public organisations.

Decrease expenditure on imports

While implementing strategies to increase our FE income by promoting exports, action also needs to be taken to decrease our expenditure on imports. During the period between 2017 and 2020 annual expenditure on importing food has been around Rs. 320 billion. The current expenditure on food imports is likely to be even higher due to the depreciation of the SL rupee, and shortage of rice and other food crops, the result of banning import of agrochemicals.

One of the problems the country is facing is the fuel crisis, which is likely to have extremely undesirable repercussions. A large sum of money is spent on importing petroleum to Sri Lanka. In 2020 we have imported fuel worth Rs 540 billion. If we are going to consume petroleum products at the current rate, at least an additional Rs. 50 billion will have to be spent in 2022. Consequently, it is essential to reduce petrol and diesel consumption. In many other countries such as China, Thailand and Singapore, action has already been taken to reduce fuel or power consumption and cut down wastage. If we reduce our power consumption by 10 percent, it will result in a saving of Rs 60 billion in foreign exchange.

Studies conducted in many countries have found that ethanol is a viable alternative for petrol. Many countries are either producing or using ethanol in large quantities or are providing incentives to expand ethanol production and use. Prompted by the increase in oil prices in the 1970s, Brazil introduced a program to produce ethanol for use in automobiles to reduce oil imports. Brazilian ethanol is made mainly from sugar cane. Among other countries using ethanol as a bio fuel are Australia, France, India, Sweden, USA and South Africa. Use of ethanol tends to reduce environmental pollution caused by compounds such as tetraethyl lead, used in petrol. Ethanol can be made from high starch containing crops such as manioc and maize, or high sugar containing crops such as sugarcane. These crops are cultivated in Sri Lanka. Around 10 million litres of alcohol are produced annually at Pelwatta and Sevanagala sugar factories. These can be mixed with petrol to be used at least in three wheelers so that those who use them need not pay higher fares. A few years ago former Science and Technology Minister Dr. Thissa Witharana appointed a committee to look into the possibility of using substitutes for fuel. The committee recommended the use of ethyl alcohol and Jatropha oil as bio-fuels. No follow-up action was taken by the subsequent governments to promote these alternatives as biofuels. Oil from Jatropha (Weta Erandu), a crop that can be grown widely in the Dry Zone of Sri lanka, can be used as a biofuel.

Dendro power can be generated using fast growing nitrogen fixing trees such as gliricidia and Leucaena. These crops can be used not only to generate electricity but are also a good source of animal feed and fertilisers. It may be more beneficial to grow these crops in eroded tea lands where the yields are relatively low. Soil erosion in such tea lands can also be reduced by growing these crops. The Bio Energy Association of Sri Lanka has been instrumental in promoting cultivation of gliricidia.

Sri Lanka, a country begging for dollar loans to import medicine and fuel, which are critical, need to have flexible export and import policies. As indicated above, there are 24 agro ecological zones, each characterised by a specific climate and soil. This makes possible the cultivation of different types of crops. Most of the food imported can be locally produced, thereby reducing expenditure on food imports. A closer look at the imports indicate that around Rs. 50 billion (nearly 16 percent of food imports) in FE is spent on importing sugar, most of which can be locally produced. The total annual requirement of sugar in the country is around 620,000 tonnes, but only about 50,000 tonnes are produced locally. Sugarcane has a considerable potential to reduce food import expenditure. Sugar production in the country has not increased by any appreciable amount during the present decade. The Kantale sugar factory remains closed while a plan to cultivate sugarcane in Bibile remains shelved. Jaggery made from kitul, and sugarcane are good substitutes for sugar manufactured from sugarcane.

A substantial amount of foreign exchange is spent on importing milk. In 2020 Rs. 60 billion in FE was spent on importing milk and dairy products. We have around 1 million mostly indigenous cattle. Their productivity is low (one to three litres per day) mainly due to the poor nature of the breeds and inadequate low quality feed supply. The dairy industry has the potential to contribute considerably to solve Sri Lanka’s FE crisis. Milk production can be increased by increasing availability of cattle feed and thereby an appreciable amount of foreign exchange spent on milk imports can be reduced. Milk production also plays an important role in alleviating malnutrition and offers many employment opportunities. If milk production can be increased, an appreciable amount of foreign exchange spent on milk imports can be reduced, while also improving the nutritional status of the people.

Expenditure on subsidiary food crops such as chillies, green gram, ground nut and potato is few billions of rupees. The extent under these crops and their average per hectare yields have not increased by any appreciable amount during the last decade. A few years ago, a former Minister of Agricultural Development, Chamal Rajapaksa appointed an Advisory Panel to make proposals to develop the agricultural sector so that there is a quantitative and qualitative increase in crop production at a lower cost with no damage to the environment. The recommendations of the panel were mainly on the development and use of better varieties of seeds and planting material; effective control of weeds, insect pests and diseases; better water management, and water conservation; proper use of inorganic and organic fertilisers; control of soil degradation and appropriate land use; promotion of agro-industries and carrying out relevant agricultural research and use of their findings. During the last few years numerous programmes such as AMA, ‘Waga Sangramaya’ and ‘Govi Sevana’ were implemented. All these activities and programmes, appear to have not made any appreciable positive impact on the agricultural sector of the country, indicated by increasing expenditure on food.

In addition to sugar, milk and rice, we spend a colossal sum on importing food items which can be locally produced. Among these are lentils (Rs. 20 billion), onions (Rs 16 billion), maize (Rs. 10 billion), fruits and vegetables and spices, mainly chillies. Even herbs such as katuwelbatu and Thippili, which can be produced locally and used in ayurvedic drugs, are imported at a cost of nearly six million US dollars every year. Most of these crops can be cultivated in the dry zone, where only about two million acres are in productive use out of the 4.5 million ha. Non-availability of adequate rainfall during the Yala season is one of the limiting factors of crop production in the dry zone. However, better water management practices and rainwater harvesting would resolve this limitation.

Although hundreds of research projects related to plantation and food crops are carried out by the faculties of agriculture and Department of Agriculture there appears to be very little liaison or interaction between the relevant institutions, to utilise the research findings in our efforts to increase productivity in the agriculture sector, which will result in saving an appreciable amount of FE.



Midweek Review

US hand in GR’s ouster: Speaker finally confirms allegations

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Feb 08, 2024: US Ambassador Julie Chung with Speaker Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena. The US Ambassador declared they spoke about, what she called, the vital role the legislature plays as a pillar of democratic governance and the importance of broad consultation in the legislative process. The meeting took place a couple of weeks before Speaker Abeywardena confirmed allegations regarding the US role in Aragalaya. (pic courtesy Parliament)

Prof. Nalin de Silva

7Prof. Nalin de Silva, in his latest article, shared on social media, underscored the need to thoroughly examine what he called grave disclosure made by Speaker Abeywardena, pertaining to Western and Indian role in ousting President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.

Sri Lanka’s former Ambassador to Myanmar, during Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s Presidency, explained how those who manipulated the crisis here wanted the Speaker to head a new government, while others planned to remove Gotabaya and Mahinda and bring in Ranil Wickremesinghe. On the basis of the Speaker’s declaration, Prof. de Silva pointed out that the Western powers and India appeared to have preferred the Speaker as a temporary stop gap.

Prof. de Silva discussed how the conspirators sought to pressure the then Premier Wickremesinghe to resign, to pave the way for the Speaker to accept executive responsibilities. The former Ambassador’s article is a must read.

By Shamindra Ferdinando

Having comfortably defeated the No-Confidence Motion (NCM) moved against him on the late afternoon of March 21, Speaker Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena, MP, disclosed the direct role played by a section of the international community in President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s removal.

Obviously, Speaker Abeywardena was referring to the US role, as previously alleged by parliamentarians Wimal Weerawansa and retired Navy Chief of Staff Sarath Weerasekera, in his capacity as the Chairman of Sectoral Oversight Committee on National Security, as well as by award-winning author Sena Thoradeniya.

Both Weerawansa and Thoradeniya in ‘09: The Hidden Story’ and ‘Galle Face Protest: System Change or Anarchy?’, respectively, implicated US Ambassador Julie Chung in the regime change project. However, ousted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s ‘The Conspiracy to oust me from presidency’ didn’t implicate Ambassador Chung in the high profile project by name though he made several references to interventions made by various foreign envoys.

Gotabaya Rajapaksa launched his book exactly two weeks before Speaker Abeywardena’s bombshell statement, which many thought he would never make out of fear. Against the backdrop of Speaker Abeywardena’s declaration, we can now examine how a toxic combination of domestic and international factors forced President Gotabaya Rajapaksa out of office.

Speaker Abeywardena’s declaration that a section of the international community spearheaded a despicable project meant to destabilize the country, the way they brought destruction upon Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan, didn’t receive the public attention it deserved. Political parties and the media, too, largely ignored that unprecedented statement. Is it because they were complicit in some way in the international vile plot?

The Speaker didn’t mince his words when he declared that conspirators threatened to harm his life over his refusal to take over the presidency, contrary to the relevant provisions in the Constitution. Perhaps, Speaker Abeywardena should launch his own book to discuss the issues at hand from a different angle. However, Speaker Abeywardena’s disclosure exposed a gaping hole in ex-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s ‘The Conspiracy to oust me from presidency.’

Why did Speaker Abeywardena wait so long to confirm specific claims of the US role in Aragalaya? But even then he does not name the chief foreign conspirator outright, though it is obvious to everyone from what others like Wimal Weerawansa, Sarath Weerasekera, et al said. Did he consult the executive, the Premier or any other senior member of the Wickremesinghe-Rajapaksa government before confirming the accusations regarding external interventions? Let me stress that the SLPP never raised the contentious issue of foreign involvement in President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s ouster though some members did in their individual capacity?

Former Minister Weerawansa alleged US involvement in his original book (Sinhala version) launched on April 25, 2023. Lawmaker Weerawansa launched an English and Russian translations of that book on Oct 13, 2023, at the Lakshman Kadirgamar Institute (LKI).

Thoradeniya launched ‘Galle Face Protest: System Change or Anarchy?’ at the National Library and Documentation Services Board, Independence Square, on July 05, 2023.

Now that Speaker Abeywardena confirmed international interventions with his personal experience at first hand, the government, the Opposition, the civil society and the media should make a genuine effort to examine the developing situations. With the country expected to go for a presidential poll later this year, political parties, represented in Parliament, cannot, under any circumstances, turn a blind eye to external meddling.

Speaker Abeywardena’s decision to set the record straight, at last should be appreciated. But, the Matara District MP certainly owed the country an explanation as to why he remained silent for so long. The veteran politician cannot absolve himself of the culpability for not speaking the truth when SLPP MP Chandima Weerakkody raised a privilege issue in Nov 2023 over Sarath Weerasekera accusing Ambassador Chung of interference. Unfortunately, Speaker Abeywardena chose to remain silent at that time. Then, what really prompted him to confirm the US role nearly one year after the launch of Weerawansa’s book? Was it because the related conspirators tried to put a noose around his own neck with a no-faith motion despite his silent compliance with most of what the international conspirators did?

Did GR offer the presidency to Yapa?

Speaker Abeywardena made another stunning revelation? According to him, the then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, after having reached Singapore ,had offered him the opportunity to exercise executive presidency though he politely declined that suggestion. Interestingly, the ex-President, in his memoirs, didn’t mention the matter at all. Perhaps Speaker Abeywardena misconstrued the telephone conversations he had with the ex-President or the former leader chose to leave that out as he didn’t consider it important or because up to the vote of no-confidence the Speaker had chosen to keep silent.

However, the writer tends to accept Speaker Abeywardena’s version. Speaker Abeywardena has explained that he declined the then President’s offer as he feared that he couldn’t ensure the appointment of a new President within a month of assuming executive powers, and the country could disintegrate with small groups taking control of different parts. Abeywardena insisted that in his capacity as the Speaker of Parliament he lacked constitutional authority to address the developing situation.

Perhaps, the situation would have been different and the country in chaos today if somebody else had served as the Speaker. Whatever his inadequacies, Speaker Abeywardena should earn the respect of all for not taking advantage of the situation. Speaker Abeywardena really deserved national honours for taking a principled stand on a matter of utmost national importance.

However, that shouldn’t exonerate Speaker Abeywardena from accusations pertaining to his manipulative conduct in Parliament to help the government in power, as alleged by the Opposition. Former External Affairs Minister Prof. G. L. Peiris recently declared that Abeywardena was the worst Speaker and his conduct couldn’t be tolerated under any circumstances.

The inordinate delay on the part of the Speaker to confirm US intervention should be examined also taking into consideration Yahapalana President Maithripala Sirisena’s decision to suddenly break his silence on the Easter Sunday massacre mastermind. Speaker Abeywardena and MP Sirisena proved how irresponsible those who held high positions can be. Both Abeywardena and Sirisena were elected to Parliament on the SLPP ticket. SLFP leader Sirisena should be ashamed of claiming, in Kandy, on March 22, that he knew the mastermind but would only reveal the conspiracy to the judiciary on the basis of an assurance that nothing would be revealed to the public.

MP Sirisena should explain whether he was aware of the Easter Sunday mastermind when he appeared before the Parliamentary Select Committee (PSC) that probed the Easter Sunday carnage and the Presidential Commission of Inquiry (PCoI) during his tenure as the President.

Soon after ex-President Sirisena’s still unsubstantiated claim in Kandy, Anuradhapura District SJB lawmaker Rohana Bandara questioned the accountability on the part of the SLFP leader for suppressing information. On behalf of the SJB, Gampaha District MP Kavinda Jayawardena lodged a complaint with the CID demanding an impartial investigation whereas Public Security Minister Tiran Alles directed IGP Deshabandu Tennakoon to initiate a fresh inquiry into the former President’s claim. Interestingly, IGP Tennakoon is one of those senior law enforcement officers who had been faulted by the PCoI for their failure to thwart the Easter Sunday massacre.

MP Sirisena’s latest claim reminded us of former AG Dappula de Livera, PC’s declaration in May 2021 that the Easter Sunday carnage was a grand conspiracy but he declined to assist the probe on the basis police investigation would undermine his privileged status as an ex-AG. The police never recorded his statement regarding his astonishing grand conspiracy claim.

July 13, 2022 developments

Wimal Weerawansa, Sena Thoradeniya, Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Speaker Abeywardena dealt with the situation on July 13, the day large groups of protesters marched on Parliament.

However, a comprehensive inquiry is required to establish what really happened on that day as the situation rapidly deteriorated near Parliament. With President Gotabaya Rajapaksa taking refuge overseas and Premier Mahinda Rajapaksa under the protection of the Navy in Trincomalee, the government seemed unable to resist the mobs.

The party leaders, who met in Parliament under Speaker Abeywardena’s leadership, were of the view Premier Ranil Wickremesinghe should resign. That was the demand of Aragalaya, too. Having seized the President’s House and set ablaze Premier Wickremesinghe’s private residence at Kollupitiya, the protesters were poised to overrun Parliament. Mobs storming Parliament seemed inevitable and unavoidable when the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) General Shavendra Silva intervened to arrange a meeting in Parliament to discuss the developments.

JVP and Jathika Jana Balawegaya (JJB) leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) had been among those present on that occasion. Wimal Weerawansa, Sena Thoradeniya, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, as well as Speaker Abeywardena, hadn’t sufficiently explained about the party leaders’ meeting in Parliament on that fateful day.

In addition to AKD, Mano Ganesan, Rauff Hakeem, Gevindu Cumaratunga, Lakshman Kiriella, Ranjith Madduma Bandara and Gayantha Karunathilake had been present on that occasion.

On behalf of the military, General Silva has sought the approval of the political leadership to deal with those trying to reach Parliament, whereas some lawmakers pushed for Premier Wickremesinghe’s resignation. Gen. Silva has emphasized that they were late in taking countermeasures, and clear instructions were required. Cumaratunga has pointed out that destruction of Premier Wickremesinghe’s residence on Fifth Lane, Kollupitiya, near Royal College, should be taken into consideration. Finally, when they failed to reach a consensus on government response, Ganesan and Cumaratunga told Gen. Silva and other senior officers present there that they should deal with the situation.

Gen Silva, at one point, in response to a query posed by AKD, has said that they would open fire depending on the situation. Gen Silva received a call from Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka where the latter insisted that the Army shouldn’t open fire. However, in the wake of the declaration that those advancing on Parliament would be firmly dealt with, troops used force to break up the protests.

The Western threat to drag security forces top brass before international courts to face war crimes allegations made by the Tamil diaspora that backed the LTTE terrorists and Western vultures covertly supporting them, with the help of peace mongers’ propaganda paid for by the West, did stand as the proverbial Damocles’ sword over their heads. This was especially made to look so, with many Western countries already having taken measures against retired Sri Lankan security forces’ officers for their alleged role in war crimes without even having any form of inquiry. Ironically, such actions came from countries like the USA, Canada and Australia despite their hands being tainted with so much innocent blood of the first people of those lands, shed in those domains violently by their white usurpers.

The law and order debacle

Former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa asserted that the pressure caused on Gen. Silva as a result of measures taken against him and his immediate family by the US over alleged war crimes accusations, the differences between Gen. Silva and Defence Secretary Kamal Gunaratne and the failure on the part of the police and the military to implement specific counter measures approved by the Attorney General in the face of mounting pressure campaign, led to the collapse of his government.

A proper investigation is required to ascertain the collapse of government defences, beginning with the violent demonstration near the President’s private residence at Pangiriwatte, Mirahana, on the night of March 31, 2022, the incidents at Rambukkana, on April 19, 2022, incidents outside Temple Trees, Galle Face, and other parts of the country on May 10/11, 2022, and finally violence during July 09-14, 2022, period.

Without doubt the arrest and remanding of SSP Kegalle Keerthiratne, over the opening fire on a mob that tried to set a petrol bowser ablaze in Rambukkana town, influenced the police and military. That was the only occasion the police or military fired at violent mobs during the 14-week long protest campaign.

Now that the former President has asserted that both the Defence Secretary and CDS and Commander of the Army had been affected by international action, examination of Sri Lanka’s pathetic response to the Geneva challenge is a must. It would be pertinent to mention that at the time President Gotabaya Rajapaksa vacated the President’s House Gen Silva hadn’t been even in the country and the acting Commander of Army was Lt. Gen. Vikum Liyanage, who finally took over the post on June 01, 2022.

By the time Gen. Silva landed at the BIA in the afternoon on July 09, 2022, President Rajapaksa was on his way to Trincomalee in SLNS Gajabahu, formerly of the US Coast Guard.

The responsibility on the part of Parliament to respond to the Geneva threat, too, should be examined. Chairman of the Sectoral Oversight Committee on National Security, Rear Admiral (retd.) Sarath Weerasekera questioned the US Ambassador’s role with the focus on a number of incidents, including the Rambukkana shooting on April 19, 2022. The US deprived MP Weerasekera an opportunity to join a parliamentary delegation by refusing to issue him a visa. Out of the 17 Chairpersons of Oversight Committees chosen for a 10-day study tour of the US, organised by the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and USAID, in late October, 2023, only Weerasekera was denied a visa.

Weerasekera retired in late 2006 after having served the Navy with an unblemished record for well over three decades.

The US, in another high handed act, asked Parliament to name an MP representing a minority community to replace Weerasekera.

Both Weerasekera and Weerawansa said that they were quite surprised by Speaker Abeywardena’s admission after having remained mum for so long. Whatever the reason that prompted Speaker Abeywardena to confirm an external hand in the hitherto never seen toppling of a President by an entirely staged environment, facilitated by foreign interests, it finally exposed the US in an embarrassing position. The Wickremesinghe-Rajapaksa government, too, is in a dilemma. So is the SJB and the JVP. No one dares to antagonize the US.

Last year when the CIA Boss Burns made a clandestine visit here and travelled to Colombo in a secret motorcade, after closing the Katunayake –Colombo Expressway to all other traffic, in the dead of the night, there wasn’t even a hum from the usually very patriotic comrades, but now compromised to the hilt, let alone any form of protest.

Those who usually issued statements at the drop of a hat conveniently remained silent on Speaker Abeywardena’s declaration. No one sought the CID intervention to probe the Speaker’s statement nor did the Public Security Ministry direct the IGP to initiate an inquiry, though ex-President Sirisena’s quite silly claim received the attention of the powers that be. Is he going to repeat the claim made by interested parties that Zahran Hashim and his band of terrorists carried out the Easter terror attacks to help Gatabaya to come to power?

Former Speaker Karu Jayasuriya, in his present capacity as Chairman of the National Movement for Social Justice, roared like a brave lion and demanded an immediate investigation into Sirisena’s claim but conveniently tucked his tail behind his back and remained silent on the Speaker’s confirmation of external role in Aragalaya. None of those who rushed to condemn ex-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa for alleging foreign hand, though he, too, didn’t mention the US’ role, stayed silent on the Speaker’s statement.

Karu Jayasuriya, who served as the Speaker before Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena, must have the courage to take a stand on his successor’s disclosure. The former Speaker cannot remain silent, under any circumstances, though during his time Jayasuriya entered into USD 13 mn project (Rs 1.92 bn) agreement with the US to enhance good governance and accountability.

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Midweek Review

The Caged Prophet

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By Lynn Ockersz

Though ‘cribbed and confined’,

To a torrid tropical zoo,

You are still ‘Blazing Bright’,

With that striking majesty,

Rendered timeless in verse,

By Bards of world renown,

But if we dwell awhile,

On your searing gaze,

We’ll see in its depths,

A heavy, lingering sadness,

For a world smitten badly,

By human greed and arrogance,

That’s making destructive wars,

Over what’s left of Nature,

A frontier of self-annihilation.

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Midweek Review

Gotabaya: Only Ranil could have restored law and order

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May 25, 2022: A beaming Premier Wickremesinghe with President Rajapaksa after being appointed Finance Minister. Wickremesinghe received the premiership on May 12, 2022.

By Shamindra Ferdinando

By the time President Gotabaya Rajapaksa had arrived in Singapore in the second week of July 2022, a few days after fleeing Sri Lanka, he firmly believed that then Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe was the only person capable of restoring the rule of law in the country.

In the chapter titled ‘The Politics of Regime Change’ in the recently launched ‘The Conspiracy’ that dealt with the circumstances leading to his ouster in July, 2022, Gotabaya Rajapaksa concedes recognizing the UNP leader as the ideal person to overcome, what he called, mob rule.

President Rajapaksa appointed Wickremesinghe as the Prime Minister on May 12, 2022, after SJB leader Sajith Premadasa and SJB Chairman Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka declined to accept the premiership.

In spite of knowing that Wickremesinghe backed the sustained protest campaign that was launched on March 31, 2022, against him, Gotabaya Rajapaksa appeared to have had no qualms in handing over the country’s leadership and the all-powerful Presidency to the UNP leader.

Many an eye brow was raised when two UNPers/SJBers, Manusha Nanayakkara and Harin Fernando, who repeatedly accused the President of orchestrating the Easter Sunday carnage in April 2019, received key ministerial portfolios. They were the only SJB lawmakers who switched allegiance to Gotabaya Rajapaksa at Wickremesinghe’s behest, though interested parties propagated the lie that a large section of the main Opposition party would join the then government with an unknown future.

What really influenced Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s thinking that Wickremesinghe could restore law and order, after his own pathetic failure as the Minister of Defence, Commander-in-Chief of the war-winning armed forces, and the head of the National Security Council to thwart an unprecedented public protest campaign, was obviously engineered from both within and outside.

The author disclosed the disagreement between him and leaders of political parties represented in Parliament and the Committee on Parliamentary Business over the appointment of Wickremesinghe as the Acting President.

Gotabaya Rajapaksa didn’t mince his words when he declared that those represented in Parliament wanted Wickremesinghe to resign in a bid to appease the mobs. Gotabaya Rajapaksa seemed to have commended Wickremesinghe’s stand that he wouldn’t resign until a new government took over.

The decision on the part of the ruling SLPP to elect Wickremesinghe as the 8th President on July 20, 2022, should be examined taking into consideration Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s assertion that the UNP leader should be his successor.

Gotabaya Rajapaksa must have felt relieved when Wickremesinghe cleared government buildings of unruly elements occupying them, within 24 hours after being appointed President to complete the remainder of his predecessor’s five-year term. Those who were threatening to lay down their lives for a system change, while wrapping themselves in the national flag, simply melted away as if on cue, proving that it was all a charade.

Regardless of various machinations at different levels, the SLPP obviously had no option but to endorse Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s choice of Ranil as the President. A consensus between the SLPP and Rajapaksa who hadn’t at least obtained party membership caused a debilitating division of the party. A section, led by SLPP Chairman Prof. G. L. Peiris and Dullas Alahapperuma, switched their allegiance to the SJB and the former in turn voted for Alahapperuma at the presidential contest in Parliament. As Gotabaya Rajapaksa desired, Wickremesinghe emerged the winner by receiving 134 votes (including his own as the only UNP National List MP), Alahapperuma received 82, whereas JVP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake obtained just three votes.

Those who have read National Freedom Front (NFF) leader Wimal Weerawansa’s ‘Nine: The hidden Story’ and award-winning writer Sena Thoradeniya’s ‘Galle Face Protest: Systems Change or Anarchy?, would find the ex-President’s narrative somewhat contradictory, pertaining to Wickremesinghe’s role during the protest campaign and after.

The ex-President and Messrs. Weerawansa and Thoradeniya differed sharply on the role played by the then Under Secretary of Political Affairs of the US State Department, Victoria Nuland, here. Neo-con Nuland, widely blamed for a high profile but seriously flawed US project in Ukraine that finally forced Russia to send in her Army, ironically received Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s commendation. Maybe it is all due to him still being a political neophyte.

Actually, the former President owed an explanation why he viewed his meeting with Nuland on March 22, 2022 on a positive note against the backdrop of accusations of the role played by the US in the overall operation. Both Weerawansa and Thoradeniya detailed repeated US interventions that deprived the government of an opportunity to suppress the violent public protest campaign that confounded problems.

However, all three found fault with the Bar Association for promoting mobs hell-bent on regime change.

Chung’s move

The former leader conveniently refrained from commenting on US Ambassador Julie Chung’s effort to convince Speaker Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena to accept the presidency temporarily.

Speaker Abeywardena has never contradicted the accusations made by lawmaker Weerawansa and Thoradeniya though Ambassador Chung denied meeting the Speaker at his official residence on July 09, 2022, to make the unprecedented offer, a blatant act of interference in a sovereign state.

Why did Gotabaya Rajapaksa choose to remain silent on one of the most crucial issues that directly tied the Biden administration with the regime change operation in Sri Lanka?

Many found fault with Gotabaya Rajapaksa for alleging a Western role in the protest campaign that forced him out of office. Those skeptical of Western interventions here must be reminded how the US State Department report in 2016 declared how they spent USD 585 mn in Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Nigeria to restore democracy (meaning bringing about regime change to suit their agenda) in 2014/2015. And former Secretary of State John Kerry even openly crowed about it in public.

The US Embassy here declined to provide a breakdown of the allocation of USD 585 mn. The then MPs Kanchana Wijesekera and Shehan Semasinghe raised this issue but Sri Lanka never made a genuine effort to examine foreign interventions.

Thanks to Wikileaks, we know how the US, though unsuccessfully, intervened to help retired General Sarath Fonseka at the 2010 presidential elections. After having accused Fonseka’s Army of killing thousands of Tamil civilians on the Vanni east front, the US had no compunctions in getting the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) to throw its full weight behind the war-winning Army Commander, who turned against his own Commander in Chief and the country’s sitting President Mahinda Rajapaksa no sooner the war ended, as it served Washington’s vile interests and his future ambitions.

Gotabaya Rajapaksa referred to external interventions here and exposure of their sordid operations in various parts of the world but, unfortunately, refrained from giving at least a few examples.

Another key omission in the book was the US refusal to issue Gotabaya Rajapaksa a visa after he decided to give up the presidency. The US refusal certainly revealed their hand in the operation here. Therefore, the author’s accusation regarding Indian interference should be examined in the proper context, taking into consideration the US-India common strategy pertaining to Sri Lanka.

Having reached the Maldives at around 3 am on July 12, 2022, Gotabaya Rajapaksa had wanted to leave for Singapore in a private plane but was forced to change plans due to Indian interference. Don’t forget that Gotabaya Rajapaksa hadn’t resigned and wanted to fly from the Maldives to Singapore as the President. He was accompanied by wife Iyoma and two bodyguards. This is what Gotabaya Rajapaksa said about Indian action: “The plan was to fly to Singapore in a private plane but Indian authorities had not allowed this private plane to fly to Male.”

Gotabaya Rajapaksa appointed Wickremesinghe as the Acting President while he was in the Maldives but took a firm decision to give the UNP leader the responsibility to complete the remainder of his term after he arrived in Singapore.

Who could have been keen to protect Gotabaya Rajapaksa as claimed by the author that he received an assurance from a major foreign power to ensure uninterrupted supply of essentials. But his great phobia of the combined power of the West and India perhaps prevented him from taking up that offer.

Failure of the armed forces

The author without hesitation found fault with Defence Secretary Gen. Kamal Gunaratne, Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) Gen. Shavendra Silva, and Director of State Intelligence Service (SIS) Suresh Sallay for the security crisis that forced him out of office. The ex-President was not so harsh on the police.

Gotabaya Rajapaksa dealt with the issue in the chapter, titled ‘The Law and Order Debacle.’

The failure on the part of the armed forces and police on May 09/10, 2022, and July 09, 2022, should be carefully examined against the backdrop of how the government had handled the Rambukkana shooting on April 19, 2022.

It was the first police shooting since the almost daily protests began on March 31, 2022. Regardless of the police maintaining that they had no option but to open fire to prevent protesters from setting fire to a fuel bowser in Rambukkana town, the government gave in.

Ambassador Chung and the then UN Resident Coordinator Hanaa Singer-Hamdy urged restraint from all sides and called on the authorities to ensure the people’s right to peaceful protest. Chung also called for an independent investigation into the shooting that claimed the life of one person. Nearly two dozen policemen and protesters received injuries.

The diplomats and the government ignored that the police had no alternative but to open fire to prevent protesters from setting the fuel bowser placed across the railway line there ablaze.

The government fell into the classic trap in trying to please the Western critics, when senior officer at the scene SSP, Kegalle, K.B. Keerthiratne, was arrested and remanded along with three other police personnel, despite them having done their job dutifully to avert a disaster and that callous act of the then government alone would have disheartened all police personnel, as well as the military, from doing their duty thereafter. The government response obviously had a demoralizing effect not only on the police but on the armed forces, as well.

No one in the government bothered to examine the circumstances the police opened fire in Rambukkana. Perhaps, the political leadership felt the situation could have been brought under control by appeasing the mobs. The arresting of policemen who, at the risk to their lives, thwarted the protesters’ bid to set fire to a fuel bowser there, must have caused apprehension among the police and armed forces. It was the first strategical lapse on the part of the government. The government’s failure, in a way, gave a turbo boost to the protest campaign.

The former President didn’t examine that issue at all though he simply mentioned the Rambukkana incident.

President Rajapaksa’s failure to thwart the Temple Trees project to somehow save Mahinda Rajapaksa’s premiership created an environment conducive for the enemy camp, an opportunity they immediately capitalized on to unleash terror attacks against government politicians and their close supporters across the country, especially in torching all their personal belongings that they had acquired over a lifetime.

TT operation goes awry

Temple Trees brought in a huge crowd on the morning of May 09, 2022, on the pretext of felicitating the outgoing Premier Mahinda Rajapaksa though the actual plan was to unleash them on the protesters besieging Temple Trees and at Galle Face.

The police and the military didn’t intervene, thereby allowing the SLPP goons to go on the rampage. That was because it was considered a Temple Trees operation.

What they didn’t expect was a swift unprecedented readymade countrywide retaliation. The police and armed forces simply watched. No one dared to order the police, or troops, to open fire. Back of their minds must have been former Kegalle SSP Keerthiratne’s predicament who was languishing in jail at that time.

The killing of SLPP Polonnaruwa MP Amarakeerthi Atukorale and his police bodyguard in Nittambuwa town, several hours after the goons attack on Galle Face protesters, could have been averted if the police, backed by troops, intervened. Unfortunately they didn’t. Atukorale was on his way home after attending the Temple Trees meeting. Obviously, it was no spontaneous case of general public venting their anger as the entire thing was staged with very specific intelligence right across the country.

The gradual build-up against the President’s House should be viewed against the backdrop of the Rambukkana incident and violence on May 09/10, 2022 during which mobs even targeted senior police officers in Colombo.

Gotabaya Rajapaksa disclosed that in the run-up to the March 31, 2022, protest, outside his Mirihana residence, some members of the Rajapaksa family, during a powwow, proposed that except him and Premier Mahinda Rajapaksa all other members holding positions in the government should resign. Chamal Rajapaksa, his son, Shashindra and Namal had declared their readiness to resign while assuring they would convince the then Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa also to do so. Obviously Basil Rajapaksa dismissed the idea though the author refrained from saying so.

President Gotabaya Rajapaksa appeared to have accepted the proposal made by Chamal, Shashindra and Namal that resignation of all Rajapaksas, except him and the Premier, could ease pressure on the government. Unfortunately, they have failed to realize that quite a number of parliamentary group members, too, felt that Mahinda Rajapaksa should give up the premiership. Had that happened at an early stage, perhaps the SLPP could have addressed some of the growing public concerns. But, Temple Trees launched an operation of its own in support of Mahinda Rajapaksa as it tried in vain to consolidate the rapidly declining popularity of the warwinning President.

Dispute with Church and other matters

The author’s claim that he couldn’t comprehend why Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith and the Catholic Church went against him, after his triumph at the 2019 presidential poll, is quite surprising.

Although the ex-President called the Cardinal’s conduct a mystery, the Church has repeatedly declared that it only demanded the implementation of the recommendations made by the Presidential Commission of Inquiry (PCoI) that inquired into the Easter Sunday carnage.

The author quoted the then Attorney General Dappula de Livera, PC, as having told him that action couldn’t be taken on the basis of the findings/recommendations of the PCoI. Against the backdrop of the former President’s claim, the public have a right to know what the AG meant by that there was a grand conspiracy behind the Easter carnage. With Indians and others knowing of the entire plot in detail well in advance to even warn their local law enforcement counterparts, it appears Zahran and his followers were mere puppets dancing to the tune of their puppet master operating from abroad.

The Easter Sunday issue was dealt quite intensively with the author questioning the accusations directed at him that he used Muslim suicide bombers to create conditions conducive for him while accusing him of him being anti-Muslim due to alleged association with Bodu Bala Sena since President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s second term. That argument certainly holds water. But Bodu Bala Sena, too ,was an obvious plot hatched by the West. After they went on a worldwide tour that included Washingtom, where its leader obtained a four-year American visa and it concluded in Oslo, Norway. And no sooner they returned to Sri Lanka they started agitating against Muslim extremists, while at the same time the West was winding up that community about excesses of Rajapaksas against their community, albeit with the help of BBS. What a winning formula!

Presidential aspirant Dilith Jayaweera is one of those who accused the Secretary to the President Dr. P.B. Jayasundera and Basil Rajapaksa and other members of the Rajapaksa family creating an extremely unfavourable environment for President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. However, Gotabaya Rajapaksa didn’t really comment on the issue while leaving out the sugar scam that caused immense harm to his government within two months after the last parliamentary election.

The former President seemed to have disregarded the Supreme Court ruling on the ruination of the national economy as he strongly defended the handling of the economy by his team of experts.

However, it would be necessary to remind the former President that ministers Wimal Weerawansa and Udaya Gammanpila didn’t drift away as he mentioned but were sacked by him over the controversy regarding the finalization of the Kerawalapitiya deal in Sept 2021. Weerawansa made a desperate effort to pressure the SLPP to accommodate the President in its hierarchy by creating a special position for him. One of Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s main complaints was that in spite of being President, he lacked political authority.

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