Features
Can SL benefit from a recession?
by Kumar David
It is perverse to extract benefits for ourselves from the misery of others – the advanced (rich) economies; but actually, the suggestions I make in today’s column do no harm to anyone. They are passive benefits. The first question though is, will there be a global recession? The World Bank in a recent (15 Sept) press release entitled “Risk of Global Recession in 2023 Rises Amid Simultaneous Rate Hikes” says: “As central banks across the world simultaneously hike interest rates in response to inflation, the world is edging toward a global recession in 2023 and a string of financial crises in emerging and developing economies that will do lasting harm. Central banks are raising interest rates with a synchronicity not seen for five decades—a trend that will continue next year. But this and other policy actions are insufficient to bring global inflation down. Investors expect 4% interest rate increases; 2% over 2021. Unless supply disruptions and labour-market pressures subside, this leaves global core inflation (excluding energy) at 5% in 2023— double the five-year average before the pandemic. To cut global inflation to a rate consistent with their targets, central banks need to raise interest rates by an additional 2%. If this is accompanied by financial-market stress, global GDP growth will slow to 0.5% in 2023 — a 0.4% contraction per capita which meets the technical definition of a global recession.
“Global growth is slowing sharply, with further slowing likely as more countries fall into recession. These trends will persist, with long-lasting consequences that are devastating for developing economies. To achieve low inflation, currency stability and faster growth, policymakers should shift their focus from reducing consumption to boosting production. Policies should generate more investment, improve productivity and raise capital allocation, which are all critical for growth and poverty reduction.
“The United States, China, and the Euro Area have been slowing sharply. Even a moderate hit could tip the global economy into recession. Experience of the 1970s, responses to the 1975 recession, subsequent stagflation, and the global recession of 1982 illustrate the risk of allowing inflation to remain elevated. Fiscal authorities need to calibrate the withdrawal of fiscal support measures while ensuring consistency with monetary-policy, but policymakers should put in place medium-term fiscal plans to provide targeted relief to vulnerable households”.
These extracts from the World Bank (WB) press-release are heavily abbreviated. Many other studies and reports too suggest that a recession is likely in 2023-24. Since I cannot quote a large number, I have limited myself to this WB source that carries credibility. For the purposes of this essay take it that interest rates and inflation will remain high, stock markets depressed, bond yields high and growth retarded for say five years. After that? Hard to say; the options are many.
What I have said so far is not new to those who track economic trends. It is background data for today’s column. A significant point however is that the strategy that is being adopted across the rich world to handle the problems that it creates are contradictory; it is a Janus-Faced strategy of loose fiscal policy side by side with tight monetary policy. A mutually contradictory problematic but unavoidable in the present global political, financial-economic, strategic and paradoxical energy related circumstances. Let me elaborate in a few words.
It’s easiest to use the US as a focal point. The Biden Administration finds it a matter of existential necessity to take stand against extremism (a lurch to racism, “election deniers”, reinvigorated Trumpism, electoral gerrymandering, a fundamentalist abortion surge in Republican controlled states and feminist outrage elsewhere, and a primitivist majority in the Supreme Court). Biden is seeking to survive by enhancing feel-good among the population. So the Administration is pumping money into pockets; fiscal stimulation a $1.9 trillion “American Rescue Plan” () and $370 billion “The Inflation Reduction Act” including tax credits and rebates for energy-efficient appliances, plug-in vehicles and renewable electricity. (Another part of this measure for Climate Change initiatives is bogged down for now by reactionary Democrats in Congress).
These Biden initiatives are inflationary and blatant fiscal stimulus. Fiscal stimulus is starkly in conflict with the tight monetary policy (high interest rates) that the FED is bent on in its attempt to bring US inflation down from a feared 8% to nearer the target rate of 2% per annum. The US dollar is rising across the world because of high FED rates and for other reasons such as the Ukraine war and political uncertainties, e.g. victory of neo-fascists in the Italian elections and strengthening of the far-right in France, Poland Hungary, Denmark and elsewhere in Europe. Both the FED’s actions and the said political factors should motivate tighter financial discipline. Instead we observe a crucial conflict between the fiscal and the monetary, further aggravated by West Germany’s imperative to pour money into consumer pockets to cope with energy bills during winter 2022 and 2023. Other EU countries will have to follow suit.
I have expended a few paragraphs on the trends circumscribing the global economy as it is essential background. The recent fashion in the writings of Lanka’s old left, broad left, Maoist and Fidel-loyalist left is to pour scorn on Ranil’s inadequacies which are legion. But Ranil is small change; what is needed is to understand the processes maturing in the innards of global capitalism and flesh it with analytical and empirical content. For example, the likelihood or otherwise of a decade of global capitalist durability, or alternatively, recession, deep-depression or depression. My few paragraphs are intended to alert readers to important issues in fiscal, monetary, financial and equity markets. (I have not even touched on one important issue, Lanka’s indebtedness to international capital markets). It is inattention to empirical data and detail among leftists that is undesirable. If empirical detail is disregarded and objectivity lost, all is lost. I will come back to these concerns again and again in future columns.
What is directly relevant to my topic today is how Sri Lanka can find spaces, crevices and loop-holes that it can to exploit to its benefit in midst of these stresses force upon the rich world. Since there will be money in the pockets of rich country middle, upper class and older consumers (a few hundred billion dollars) an obvious beneficiary can be our tourism sector. Ecotourism, cultural tourism and climate change related tourists are the sectors to watch for. The downside of reckless tourism – drugs and harmful sex tourism -are dangers to be alert to. We are familiar with employment generated remittances but SL expatriates too are (were) keen to inject funds into families to upgrade homes and open small businesses. A rush was visible in Jaffna soon after 2009 but choked on unbridled political corruption and rampant government racism.
These earnings have to be supplemented with a drive to expand the use of English in education. One has to be careful to encourage only UK English, not the American dialect to avoid snarl ups and to exploit the benefits of Lanka’s membership of the Commonwealth, one of the largest, and a still expanding association of nations. Other options such as permitting small property purchases by non-citizen individuals and non-resident expatriate families has also got to be examined.
Let me now comment on the big-capital picture. The world is awash with excess capital and now is a crucial opportunity to exploit access to large investment. It would be wise to channel investment into avenues that will be amenable to compliance with the role of the state in long term economic directions. This is tricky and a separate topic best left to another day. The point is that rising interest rates in the rich countries encourages money to move out of stocks, and there is some reluctance in the rich-world to invest in sovereign bonds and private equity, so there is a pool of big capital searching for investment openings overseas. To attract some of this as FDI requires tinkering with the exchange control mechanism and the exchange rate. Both the SL Central Bank and the government are well aware of the opportunities and perils; I mention it here only to slake the curiosity of my laymen readers. Everybody, government and CBSL are very cagey about flexibility in the exchange rate or reducing foreign currency restrictions!
Turning to the corruption theme, to attract large manufacturing investors and moderate sized investment in commercial farming (orchards for example) the biggest single disincentive is state protected corruption. Now allow me a politically incorrect remark: Retroactive capital punishment for the biggest crooks, the billion-dollar types, will be salutary. But sigh! It will never happen; who will touch the Rajapaksas or rogue Ministers and MPs? A minimum that can be done is to cultivate Lee Kwan Yew type morality in the public service – ruthless punishment of corrupt officials – and to install a Hong Kong style Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) which in its best days prosecuted and imprisoned a Chief Executive the moment he stepped out of office and lost immunity.
One last point before I sign off is a briefing in the Economist of October 15 entitled ‘Mothering Invention’ about the role of the state in directing long-term economic policy. Dirigisme is a doctrine where the state plays a key policy role in setting long term economic policy. It is canvassed by the left internationally and in Sri Lanka. This Economist article provides considerable insight.
For access to the quoted World Bank text, Google (verb): “Will there be global economic crisis?” And click on the ‘Risk of Global Recession’ site that appears]. The compete
Features
Silence of the majority keeps West Asian conflict raging
With no military quick-fix in sight to the ongoing, convoluted West Asian conflict it ought to be clear to the rationally inclined that there is no other way to a solution to the blood-letting other than through a negotiated one. Unfortunately, there are not many takers the world over for such an approach.
Consequently the war rages on incurring the gravest human costs to all relevant sides. Whereas it should be obvious to the Trump administration that Iran wouldn’t be backing down any time soon from its position of taking on the US frontally and with the required military competence in the Hormuz Strait and adjacent regions, the US demonstrates a stubbornness to persist with war strategies that are showing no quick, positive results on the ground.
Clearly, the virtual ‘lock down within a lock down’ situation in the Strait is not proving beneficial for either party. Instead, the spilling of civilian blood in particular continues with unsettling regularity along with an all-encompassing economic crisis that carries a staggering material toll for ordinary people all over the world.
From this viewpoint it is commendable for Pakistan to offer itself as a peace mediator and go ‘the extra mile’ to keep the principal parties engaged in some sort of negotiatory process. But its efforts need to win greater support from the world community. It is a time for peace-makers the world over to stand up and be counted.
It is also a time for straight-talking. To his glowing credit Pope Leo XIV is doing just that and he is the only religious head worldwide to do so. Very rightly he has called on President Trump to end the war through negotiations and described it as ‘unjust’ and ‘a scandal to humanity’.
May this crucial cause be taken up by more and more world leaders, is this columnist’s wish. Instead of speaking fatalistically about a ‘Third World War’, decision and policy makers and commentators, and these are found in plenty in Sri Lanka as well, would do better to help in drumming-up support for a peaceful solution and the latter is within the realms of the possible.
Incidentally, the commonplace definition of the phrase ‘World War’ is quite contentious and it would be premature to speak forebodingly about one right now. The fissures within the West on the Middle East conflict alone rule out the possibility of a ‘World War’ occurring any time soon.
Instead, it would be preferable for the international community, under the aegis of the UN, to take the ‘straight and narrow’ path to a peaceful solution. As implied, this path is no easy avenue; it is cluttered with obstacles that only doughty peace makers could take on and clear.
However, the path to a negotiated peace is worth taking and no less a power than the US should know this. After all, the US ‘bled white’ in Vietnam and had to bow out of the conflict, realizing the futility of pursuing a military solution. A similar lesson should have been learned by Russia which bled futilely in Afghanistan. It too is in an unwinnable situation in Ukraine.
The Pope’s observations to President Trump on negotiating peace have earned for him some snarls and growls of criticism but with time these critics would realize that peace could come only by peaceful means and not through ‘the barrel of a gun.’
For far too long the ‘silent majority’ of the world has allowed politicians to take the sole initiative on working towards peaceful solutions to conflicts and wars. As could be seen, the results have been disastrous. The majority of politicians speak the language of Realpolitik only and this tendency runs contrary to the ways of the selfless peace maker.
Power, which is the essence of Realpolitik, and peace are generally at loggerheads in the real world. Power and self-aggrandizement have to be shelved in the pursuit of durable peace anywhere and it is a pity that the likes of Donald Trump and his team are yet to realize this.
At this juncture the ‘peace constituency’ or the silent majority would need to take centre stage and play their rightful role as the ‘Conscience of the World’. If the latter begins to take on the cause of peace in earnest everywhere, the politicians would have no choice but to pay heed to their cause and take it up, since a contrary course would earn for them public displeasure and votes.
An immediate challenge would be for the ‘peace constituency’ to come together and act as one. Right now, such a coordinating role could be played effectively by only the UN and its agencies. Practical problems are likely to get in the way but these need to be managed insightfully and resourcefully by all stakeholders to peace.
In fact the time couldn’t be more appropriate for the backers of peace to come together and work as one. Right now, economic pressures are increasing worldwide and no less a public than that in the US is beginning to feel them in a major, crushing way.
Going ahead the US public, along with other polities, would find the economic consequences of war to be intolerable. There would be no choice but for governments and peoples to champion peace. Peace makers would need to ‘strike while the iron is hot.’
The success of the above endeavours hinges on the importance humans attach to their consciences. The danger about prolonged wars is that they deaden consciences; particularly those of politicians. The latter deaden their consciences to the extent that they prove impervious to the pain and suffering wars incur.
Thus, the ‘peace constituency’ has its work cut out; it cannot rest assured that politicians would prove sensitive to their demands. The latter would need to be constantly dinned into the hearts and minds of politicians and decision-makers if peaceful solutions to conflicts are to be arrived at.
Likewise, the publics of war-torn countries would need to demand the activation and sustaining of accountability processes with regard to those sections that are suspected of committing war crimes and like atrocities. Those publics that cease to demand accountability from powerful sections among them which are faced with war-time atrocity charges are as good as condemning themselves to lives of permanent dis-empowerment and enslavement.
Features
Don’t take the baby: In the quiet night, mother always returns

Chaminda Jayasekara
There is a particular stillness in Sri Lanka’s forests, after dusk — a kind of hushed expectancy where shadows lengthen, cicadas soften their chorus, and the night begins to breathe in its own rhythm. It is a world that does not reveal itself easily. You have to wait for it. You have to listen.
And then, suddenly, you see them — a pair of luminous, unblinking eyes suspended in the dark.
The Grey Slender Loris, or unahapuluwa, emerges, not with drama, but with quiet precision. Small, slow-moving, and almost impossibly delicate, it is one of Sri Lanka’s most enigmatic nocturnal primates — a creature that has survived millennia by mastering the art of stillness.
Yet, during these months — from late March through July — the forests hold a more tender story. It is the breeding season of the slender loris, and with it comes a scene that is often misunderstood by those who encounter it for the first time: a tiny infant, alone on a branch, barely three inches long, its fragile body silhouetted against the night.

Grey Slender Loris with twin babies
To many, it appears to be a moment of abandonment.
To nature, it is a moment of trust.
“People often act out of compassion, but without understanding what they are seeing,” explains Chaminda Jayasekara of the University of Hertfordshire. “A baby loris left alone is not necessarily in danger. In fact, it is part of a natural process that is critical for its survival.”
According to Jayasekara, when a baby loris is about a month old, the mother begins a remarkable routine. As darkness settles, she gently places her infant on a secure branch and moves off into the forest to forage. Her journey can take her hundreds of metres away — sometimes close to 800 metres — as she searches for insects and other small prey.
In those hours of solitude, the infant is not abandoned. It is learning.
Clinging to the branch, it begins to explore its immediate surroundings. Tentatively, almost hesitantly, it reaches out — testing balance, grip, and instinct. It may attempt to catch tiny insects, mimicking behaviours it will one day rely on entirely. This is its first classroom, and the forest its only teacher.
“Those early nights are crucial,” Jayasekara says. “The baby is developing motor skills, coordination, and the ability to interact with its environment. These are things that cannot be replicated in captivity.”
And yet, this is precisely where human intervention often disrupts the process.
Across rural and even semi-urban Sri Lanka, stories circulate of well-meaning individuals who come across a lone baby loris and assume the worst. Driven by concern, they pick it up, take it home, or attempt to hand-rear it — believing they are saving a life.

Grey Slender Loris
But the reality is far more complex — and far more tragic.
“When a baby is removed unnecessarily, it loses something fundamental,” Jayasekara emphasises. “It loses the chance to learn how to survive in the wild. Without that, even if it survives in the short term, its long-term prospects are extremely poor.”
The forest, after all, is not just a habitat. It is a living, evolving system of lessons — how to detect predators, how to navigate branches, how to hunt silently, how to recognise territory. These are not instincts alone; they are behaviours refined through experience.
And the mother, contrary to assumption, is rarely far away.
“If people simply waited — even for several hours — they would often see the mother return,” Jayasekara explains. “She knows exactly where she left her baby. Her absence is temporary, purposeful.”
The advice from conservationists is clear and consistent: observe, but do not interfere.
If you encounter a baby loris, watch quietly from a distance. Avoid using bright lights or making noise. Give it time — at least 10 to 12 hours — before drawing conclusions. In most cases, the situation will resolve itself, just as nature intended.

35 days old Grey Slender Loris
Only if the animal is clearly injured, or if there is strong evidence of abandonment after prolonged observation, should intervention be considered — and even then, it must be done through the proper channels, particularly the Department of Wildlife Conservation.
Attempting to care for such a delicate animal at home is not only ineffective but often fatal.
Sri Lanka is home to two species of slender loris — the Grey Slender Loris and the Red Slender Loris — each adapted to specific ecological zones across the island. Both are protected under national legislation and recognised internationally as species requiring urgent conservation attention.
Their threats are many: habitat loss, road mortality, illegal pet trade, and, increasingly, human misunderstanding.
Yet, in the midst of these challenges, there are also signs of hope.

In recent years, the slender loris has become the focus of a unique form of wildlife tourism — one that values patience over spectacle. Night walks, conducted with trained naturalists and strict ethical guidelines, offer visitors a chance to witness the loris in its natural environment without disturbing its behaviour.
At places like Jetwing Vil Uyana, this approach has been refined into a model of responsible eco-tourism. Over more than a decade, the property has developed a dedicated Loris Conservation Project, recording thousands of sightings while educating visitors and supporting local communities.
Here, the loris is not handled, chased, or exploited. It is simply observed — a quiet presence in a carefully protected landscape.
“The success of such initiatives shows that conservation and tourism do not have to be at odds,” Jayasekara reflects. “When done responsibly, tourism can actually support conservation by creating awareness and value for these species.”
There is something profoundly moving about encountering a loris in the wild. It does not roar or charge. It does not demand attention. Instead, it exists — quietly, deliberately — as it has for millions of years.
And perhaps that is why it is so easily misunderstood.

In a world that often equates visibility with importance, the loris reminds us that some of the most extraordinary lives unfold beyond the spotlight.
It also reminds us of something else — something simpler, yet harder to practice.
Restraint.
Because conservation is not always about stepping in. Sometimes, it is about stepping back. About recognising when nature does not need our help, but our patience.
So if, on some future night, you find yourself walking beneath the trees, and your light catches a tiny figure sitting alone on a branch — do not rush forward.
Pause.
Watch.
Let the moment unfold.
Because somewhere, moving silently through the darkness, guided by instinct and memory, a mother is already on her way back.
And by morning, the forest will be whole again.
By Ifham Nizam
Features
Kumar de Silva: 40 years of fame and flair
We first saw him on the small screen in January 1986 – a relatively raw, totally untrained and a very nervous 24-year-old presenting ‘Bonsoir’ on ITN.
And now, 40 years later, and as one looks back, one realises what a multi-dimensional journey Kumar de Silva has navigated across the small screen yes, from your television screens to your laptops, and iPads, tabs, and mobile phones.
Says Kumar: “It is the French language I speak that opened the world of television to me, 40 years ago. It was ‘Bonsoir’ alone, and so to my French teacher at Wesley College, Mrs. BA Fernando, to ‘Bonsoir’, and to the Embassy of France in Sri Lanka, I am eternally grateful”.

Promoting the French language, and culture, in Sri Lanka, in a big way
Kumar went on to say that on the heels of ‘Bonsoir” came ‘Fanclub’, on ITN, describing it as yet another resounding success story which saw him as a music DJ on TV.
His inherent talent saw him handle a range of contrasting programmes across ITN, TNL, Prime TV and SLRC with consummate ease – from News Reading, Business Talk Shows, Celebrity Chats, to Dhamma discussions, on Poya Days, to name a few.

Kumar – the 1986 look
Trained in Paris in television production and presentation, the Government of France, in 2012, conferred on him the title of ‘Chevalier dans l’Ordre des Arts et Lettres’ (Chevalier in the Order of Arts and Letters) in recognition of his contribution to promoting the French language, and culture, in Sri Lanka.
In celebration of his four decades on the small screen, Kumar recently launched ‘Bonsoir Katha’, the Sinhala translation (by Ciara Mendis) of his English book ‘Bonsoir Diaries’ (2013), at a gala soiree. at the Alliance Francaise de Colombo, under the distinguished patronage of the French Ambassador in Sri Lanka, Remi Lambert, and francophone President Chandrika Kumaratunga.
He’s now excited about launching the French version of this book, ‘Les Coulisses de Bonsoir’, in Paris, in autumn this year. It is currently being translated by Guilhem Beugnon, a former Deputy Director of the Alliance Francaise de Colombo. This will, co-incidentally, also be Kumar’s 30th visit to Paris.

Chief Guest French Ambassador in Sri
Lanka Remi Lambert
Says Kumar: “The word GRATITUDE means a lot to me and so I always make it a point to spend time with two very special French people every time I go to France. One is Madame Josiane Thureau, formerly of the French Foreign Ministry, who began ‘Bonsoir’ in Sri Lanka. way back in the mid-1980s. The other is Madame Aline Berengier, the lady who designed the ‘Bonsoir’ logo – the Sri Lankan elephant in the colours of the French national flag”.
Kumar is also a much-sought-after Personal Development and Corporate Etiquette Coach in Colombo’s corporate world. Over the past 15 years, tens of thousands of corporates, have been through the different modules of his interactive training sessions. There have also been thousands of school leavers and undergraduates from national and private universities, many of whom will constitute the corporates of tomorrow.

Guest of Honour francophone President Chandrika Kumaratunga at the gala soiree
at the Alliance Francaise de Colombo
The multi-talented Kumar turns 65 next year, and his journey on the small screen still continues – you see him on the (monthly) ‘Rendez-Vous with Yasmin and Kumar’ on the French Embassy’s YouTube Channel, and (every Friday) on ‘Fame Game with Rozanne and Kumar’ on Daily Mirror Online, Hi Online and The Sun Online.
There’s yet another podcast in the pipeline, he indicated, but diplomatically declined to give us details. All he said, with a glint in his eye, was, “It will hit your screens soon.”
Whatever he has in mind, one can be certain that the new programme will continue to showcase Kumar de Silva’s enduring presence in Sri Lanka’s entertainment scene.
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