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Midweek Review

Artificial Intelligence: Are we getting into it with our eyes open?

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by Prof. Janendra De Costa

Senior Professor and Chair of Crop Science, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Peradeniya

Artificial intelligence (AI) seems to be the ‘in-thing’ these days, especially for the President of Sri Lanka, who keeps mentioning it in his speeches as a key ingredient for Sri Lanka to achieve prosperity, both economic and otherwise. Taking the President’s cue, the Minister of Education and Higher Education recently went on record saying that AI will be taught in schools from the lower secondary grades upwards in the near future. The potential of AI for improving the efficiency and effectiveness of activities in a wide range of areas that contribute to overall national development, prosperity and well-being is undisputed. However, to treat AI as a ‘silver bullet’ which would cure Sri Lanka from all the complex issues that it is mired in and propel its economy towards development and prosperity is a fallacy that we would do well to avoid. I do not have any claim to be an expert in AI and I welcome its introduction to our curricula, at secondary and tertiary levels, just as I would welcome any other modern advance in Science and Technology (S & T). Nevertheless, the purpose of this article is to focus the readers’ attention on concerns raised by experts on the potential limitations and pitfalls of adoption of AI without being fully aware of its inherent limitations and potential threats. This would be especially relevant for Sri Lanka, which has a history of adopting (and failing) new technologies rather ‘blindly’ and without developing a strong foundation to sustain them. In writing this cautionary note, I have drawn heavily from a recent editorial of the prestigious science journal Nature and some recently published papers, views and opinions in highly recognized S & T research journals, which indicate that this is a global issue, likely to influence both the developed and the developing world.

What is artificial intelligence?

In its simplest sense, artificial intelligence employs a computer, or a robot fed with a series of instructions, to carry out tasks that are normally performed by humans. These tasks can range from simple ones such as writing a letter to complex functions such as designing proteins, pharmaceutical drugs or whole experiments and running laboratories. The capability of AI tools and methodologies to process a quantity of information, which is substantially larger than what an individual human brain (or mind) is capable of processing and finding the best solution in a given situation (called ‘optimization’ in AI terminology) is claimed as a major advantage of AI. The AI tools run on algorithms (series of specific instructions) which are designed to make decisions and carry out functions as done by humans, but with substantially greater effectiveness and efficiency because of their capacity to overcome limitations of an individual human brain (e.g. analyzing the outcomes from a wider range of possible scenarios). To enable them to do this, the AI tools and their algorithms are ‘trained’ on a sufficiently large set of data (often called ‘big data’), supposedly representing all possible scenarios. For example, by being trained on the past data on auction sales of tea in global markets, AI could be used to predict the future market trends for Ceylon Tea. This is an example of what is called ‘Predictive AI’. While a competent economist or a statistician could do the same task using a reasonably large data set, the argument for using an AI instrument would be that it is able to process a much larger and a more varied and complex data set and come up with more precise predictions for a wider range of future scenarios. Recently, a final year undergraduate of my faculty, under the supervision of one of my colleagues, developed an AI tool to grade big onions into categories with greater precision and efficiency than is currently done by traders. In developing the AI tool, it was trained on a wide range of images of onions linked to their physical characteristics such as size, shape and surface properties. Perhaps the best illustration of the power of AI is the computer trained on a multitude of chess moves beating the World Champion in chess.

Potential for AI applications in Sri Lanka

As identified by the President, there is potential for application of AI to improve the efficiency of many activities in a range of sectors in Sri Lanka. Decision-making has been a particularly weak link in the administrative structure of Sri Lanka at all levels, from the President, Cabinet and Ministerial down to the lowest levels of governance in almost all institutions across all sectors. Key decisions on policy and action are often taken without proper consideration and analysis of relevant facts and figures, with personal bias coming into decision-making most of the time. Even when the so-called experts are employed as advisors, their capacity to analyse all relevant information and provide unbiased advice and guidance in decision-making has been questionable at best, and woefully inadequate at worst. The decision to convert Sri Lankan agriculture to 100% organic overnight is a clear recent case in point, which illustrates the inherent weaknesses in the decision-making process at the highest level of governance in Sri Lanka. Apart from its capacity to process a large amount of varied information, a perceived advantage of AI is its impartiality and hence the avoidance of personal bias, which is inherent in human decision-making. In a future ideal Sri Lanka where AI tools in all important sectors abound, perhaps the people in key governance positions (if they ever become sufficiently mature and S & T savvy) could rely on AI to provide sound, evidence-based, unbiased advice during decision-making on key policies and actions.

Similarly, one can ask whether AI can provide solutions to some of the critical issues and improve efficiency in key areas related to economic development. Collection of taxes and government revenue, identification of effective measures of poverty alleviation, land use planning, agriculture and natural resource management, medical supplies and health care, policy and planning on education reforms and management of educational resources, innovations in developing globally competitive products, goods and services and research in all key sectors related to national development are just a collection of areas (by no means exhaustive) which appear to be having limited efficiency when handled by humans so that appropriate AI tools and technologies could make a significant positive impact on the national economy. Furthermore, ideally, the AI tools should be able to make more accurate predictions than those that are currently available about short-term weather, long-term future climate and the occurrence of extreme climatic events such as floods, landslides, droughts and heatwaves. National issues of equal significance such as prediction of outbreaks of climate-related diseases such as dengue could benefit from the greater predictive power offered by the AI tools.

Potential pitfalls and inherent limitations of AI

International research literature abounds with recent advances in the development and application of AI in a wide range of disciplines and activities, almost all demonstrating greater competence and efficiency than the existing technologies and practices. However, there are also a lesser number of papers which focus on the inherent limitations of AI and potential risks of its increased adoption. A few of the key issues are outlined below.

Fundamentally, an AI tool is dependent on the algorithm and the set of source data on which the algorithm is ‘trained’. Absence of adequate amounts source data which is sufficiently comprehensive is likely to be a major drawback when developing AI tools to improve the efficiency of any given sector in Sri Lanka. Here, the natural tendency and the pathway of least resistance, especially for Sri Lankan officials and experts, would be to use AI tools developed in and trained on source data from other countries. While it could be argued that such AI tools are ‘trained’ on source data which are sufficiently extensive, there will always be the question whether the source data adequately captured the whole gamut of conditions, that may be specific, and in some cases unique, to Sri Lanka. Consequently, an AI tool trained on inadequate or poorly representative source data, when used without adequate knowledge and understanding of the underlying mechanisms and processes on which the AI tool is developed, could provide solutions that may not be the best (or optimum) despite conveying the illusory promise of being the best. As a solution to the inadequacy of source data on which to train AI tools, AI, itself, can expand its source database by identifying underlying patterns and the distribution of the existing data and subsequently generate new data. This is part of ‘Generative AI’, which has developed to such an extent that AI can generate ‘respondents’ for (socioeconomic) surveys who would respond to questionnaires in the same way that human respondents would respond. Nevertheless, the fundamental limitation of inadequate source data is likely to remain in many key sectors in Sri Lanka because successive Sri Lankan governments have never invested enough on gathering sufficient and comprehensive information and quantitative data on which to base its policy formulation and decision-making.

A key advantage of the use of AI in decision-making is its perceived absence of personal bias. However, it has been observed that this perceived absence of bias is not always true when AI is applied. When developing the AI algorithms and training them on source data, the developer makes a number of decisions and choices, which inevitably introduces personal bias into the AI tool. When such AI tools are used by end-users who are not familiar with the process through which the model was developed (which is highly likely to be the case in Sri Lanka), the bias inherent in the model leads to outcomes and decisions which favour some views, groups and outcomes while marginalising the alternative, sometimes more valid and inclusive, views and outcomes.

The greater computational power of an AI model trained on ‘big-data’ and providing an output which is more comprehensive than a human-generated output could create an illusion that that AI provides a solution with a superior understanding of the whole scope of the problem. However, the decisions and choices made during the process of algorithm development imposes a limit to the scope of understanding of the AI tool and the solutions provided by it.

Generative AI tools using Large Language Models (LLMs) such as GPTs have already become a common tool among Sri Lankan university students who use it for writing tasks ranging from an email to a report that is submitted for evaluation. This has created a dilemma in the academia on how to evaluate the true competence and the learning outcomes of a student. The capacity of students to synthesise by integrating information from different sources, a key competence that we as academics try to inculcate in our students, is taken away when he/she takes the easy route of using a generative AI tool such as ChatGPT. In an on-going curriculum revision in my faculty, there are colleagues who argue that subject content that can be learnt via generative chatbots such as ChatGPT need not be included in the curriculum. This is a clear example of the illusion of complete understanding that is created by AI tools, which engenders complete trust and reliance on them. The LLMs are trained on increasingly large sets of words and expressions and are increasing their capacity to capture human capabilities. However, even though the creators of AI tools may argue to the contrary, it is doubtful whether generative AI tools, however advanced, could replicate the creativity of the human mind. On the other hand, students hooked on to generative AI tools could create a future generation and a nation with diminished creativity, which would be counterproductive to the very objective of introducing AI to bring about national development and prosperity. There is evidence that students in Sri Lankan universities, both state and non-state, are already hooked on these generative AI tools for producing their take-home assignments and reports. It can be argued that such AI tools ‘levels the playing field’ for those students who are dis-advantaged when they enter a higher education institution due to lower competence in the English language. However, an equally valid counter argument would be that the availability of AI tools is likely to hinder the development of the skill of English usage.

On the global stage, risks posed by some of the latest developments in AI have been recognized and articulated. For example, the potential threats to biosecurity posed by AI-designed proteins and drugs by causing more potent diseases have been recognized. There is the possibility of algorithms that are developed initially for a legitimate purpose being adapted (‘repurposed’) for an alternative not-so-legitimate purpose. The newly developed text-to-video AI tool can create fake videos, which can be used for many harmful purposes. For example, such fake videos of key public figures could shift public opinion in crucial events such as elections. A recent research study has shown that chatbots based on Large Language Models (LLMs) show clear inherent racial bias because of the way the algorithm has been trained to recognize words, phrases and dialects used by specific ethnic or demographic groups and link them to a range of characteristics of those groups, as perceived by the developers of the AI tool.

An important social issue that is inherent when AI gains recognition and trust as a superior partner in generating solutions is the creation of a favoured group of professionals and scientists, especially when it comes to allocation of limiting state resources such as funding for Research and Development (R & D). Creation of such favoured ‘monocultures’ of professionals was evident in Sri Lanka during periods when specific disciplines were earmarked by those who were in power and had the authority to decide on who gets the resources on a priority basis. Clear cases in point were the scientists engaged in nanotechnology, and to a lesser extent biotechnology in the 2000s and the so-called experts in organic agriculture in the recent past. Creation of such favoured monocultures have adverse long-term consequences on national development as it leads, inevitably, to marginalisation and detriment of R & D in other disciplines and demotivation of their practitioners. Looking at what happened in the past, there is a clear and present danger of this history repeating itself in the next few years when AI is viewed as the ticket to economic development and prosperity. The multi-faceted and holistic nature of the development of any nation, irrespective of its present economic status, requires a reasonably adequate allocation of its limited resources across all disciplines of S & T even when a greater proportion of the resources are allocated to a few favoured disciplines which are perceived as having a greater potential to contribute to national development. (To be continued)

Additional Reading

1. Why scientists trust AI too much – and what to do about it. (Editorial). Nature, 627: 243. 14 March 2024. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06221-2.

2. Alvarado, R. (2023). What kind of trust does AI deserve, if any?. AI and Ethics, 3(4): 1169-1183. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43681-022-00224-x.

3. Carroll, J. M. (2022). Why should humans trust AI?. Interactions, 29(4), 73-77. https://doi.org/10.1145/3538392.

4. Krenn, M. et al. (2022). On scientific understanding with artificial intelligence. Nature Reviews Physics, 4(12): 761-769. https://doi.org/10.1038/s42254-022-00518-3.

5. Messeri, L. & Crockett, M.J. (2024). Artificial intelligence and illusions of understanding in scientific research. Nature, 627: 49-58. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07146-0.

6. von Eschenbach, W.J. (2021). Transparency and the Black Box problem: Why we do not trust AI. Philosophy & Technology, 34: 1607–1622. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13347-021-00477-0.

7. Wang, H. et al. (2023). Scientific discovery in the age of artificial intelligence. Nature, 620: 47-60. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06221-2.

The writer is a Fellow of the National Academy of Sciences of Sri Lanka and has been an academic and a research scientist in Agriculture and Natural Sciences for over three decades while being based in Sri Lanka.



Midweek Review

July 09: An inexcusable overall security failure and exceptional contingency plan

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A massive throng of people inside the President's House after mobs forced Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee on 09 July, 2022

Ulugetenne

The Sri Lanka Navy, on 04 June, commissioned SLNS Samudravijaya, formerly United States Coast Guard Cutter Decisive. It is the fourth mothballed US Coast Guard cutter transferred to the SLN through the US Excess Defence Articles Programme. President Anura Kumara Dissanayake attended the ceremony at the Colombo Port. The US Embassy in Colombo, in a statement issued on the same day, quoted Defence Attaché Lieutenant Colonel Matthew House as having said: “Few partners have demonstrated the commitment to maintaining and operating these vessels as successfully as the Sri Lanka Navy. The outstanding condition and operational performance of SLNS Samudura, SLNS Gajabahu, and SLNS Vijayabahu are a testament to the professionalism and technical expertise of Sri Lankan sailors. Their stewardship of these vessels helped build the confidence that made this fourth transfer possible.” The first of the four vessels SLNS Samudura was commissioned on 19 February, 2005, during Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga’s tenure as the President. Milinda Moragoda, Economic Reforms and Science and Technology Minister of the previous UNP-led UNF government, played a significant role in acquiring that vessel. SLNS Samudura boosted SLN and participated in numerous operations, including the high profile hunt for LTTE floating warehouses, during the Eelam War IV. But, the US refrained from transferring any more big ships during the war though on the then Navy Commander Vice Admiral Wsantha Karannagoda’s request to provide intelligence and Washington obliging, made the successful hunt for LTTE floating arsenals in the last stages of the war possible. The transfer of the second vessel took place 19 years after the end of the war. Ex USCG Sherman was commissioned 06 June, 2019, as SLNS Gajabahu (P626). The third vessel was transferred to the Sri Lanka Navy on October 26, 2021, as the country was heading towards an unprecedented economic crisis. That vessel was commissioned as SLNS Vijayabahu at the Colombo Port with the participation of President Ranil Wickramasinghe and US Ambassador to Sri Lanka Julie Chung on November 20, 2022. Ironically SLNS Gajabahu, one of the ex-US vessels prominently figured in the contingency plan to save President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, but whose downfall was engineered by the US.

By Shamindra Ferdinando

The moment President Gotabaya Rajapaksa decided to take up residence at the President’s House (Janadhipathi Mandiraya), Fort, in the first week of April, 2022, the Navy had no option but to prepare a thorough contingency plan, in case the regime change project posed a realistic threat to the life of the President.

The President, in consultation with senior military officers, made his move within 48 hours after violence erupted outside his private residence at Pangiriwatte, Mirihana, on the night of 31 March, 2022. That decision seemed realistic and sensible at that time.

But, in the wake of the disastrous overall armed forces response to the coordinated violence unleashed by the regime change project on 09 May, 2022, in the aftermath of the Temple Trees ordered attack on Galle Face protesters, the top brass must have recognised the urgent need for total overhauling of security strategy. But, unfortunately, that hadn’t been the case. With violent crowds overwhelming the armed forces, deployed to block them, rapidly approaching the President’s House, those who had been at the makeshift Operations Room there were stunned.

In hindsight, the President’s decision to remain at the President’s House, regardless of the near failure on the part of the armed forces to repulse the raid on Temple Trees, on 09 May, seemed unwise. The rescue operation could have gone wrong and the war-winning President Mahinda Rajapaksa could have ended up in the hands of an angry mob.

Perhaps, the conspirators envisaged the President’s move, from Pangiriwatte to the President’s House, situated walking distance away from the Galle Face protest site, where they could draw additional strength.

The failure on the part of the government to take tangible measures, in the wake of the President’s House becoming the sole target on that fateful day, is a contentious issue that needs to be properly investigated. Don’t forget that the court case filed over the 09 May attacks on the residences and properties belonging to SLPP politicians, and some supporters ,was later withdrawn. The Wickremesinghe-Rajapaksa government never investigated the 09 May incidents.

Exactly two months after the mobs almost succeeded in breaking through defences at Temple Trees, on the night of 09 May/10, where Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa was residing, they mounted the assault on the President’s House.

In the wake of the 09 May mayhem, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa named Lt. Gen. Vikum Liyanage as the Commander of the Army. He succeeded General Shavendra Silva who served as the CDS but was out of the country when all-out mayhem was unleashed by the Aragalaya mobs on 09 July, 2022, to oust the sitting government.

In spite of a direct and growing threat to the President’s House, on 09 July, 2022, the President felt confident in meeting the challenge. The President issued a directive to the Secretary, Ministry of Defence, General (retd.) Kamal Gunaratne, to shift the Operations Room from the Defence Force Headquarters, at Akuregoda, to the President’s House. Having shifted the Operations Room on 08 July, 2022, to the President’s House, as directed by the President, the top brass prepared to face the challenge.

Maj. General K.B. Egodawela, who served as an Additional Secretary (Administration) to the President, from the day the President moved to the President’s House, till he vacated on 09 July, 2022, in his memoirs ‘Aragalaya: Adarayen Prachandathwayata’ (From Love to Violence) revealed that though the top brass opposed the shifting of the Operations Room they carried out the directive. While the President felt that the top brass could collectively work at the President’s House to bring the situation under control, Gen Gunaratne proposed that the President should move to Akuregoda Defence Forces Headquarters, according to Egodawela. In fact, Gunaratne, who had been with Gotabaya Rajapaksa from the very beginning of the sinister campaign, strongly opposed the President’s decision to remain there.

Obviously, the President’s House pathetically failed to ascertain the scale of the protest and the rapidity with which protesters overwhelmed troops deployed outside the President’s House stunned the top brass. Had they swiftly reached consensus on Gen. Gunaratne’s suggestion, perhaps the 09 July regime change operation could have been thwarted. The armed forces could have resorted to tougher measures to prevent a march on Akuregoda Defence Forces Headquarters had the President agreed to move there.

Within two hours after the protest, targeting the President’s House began, video footage provided by drones indicated that troops couldn’t hold the rampaging mobs any longer. According to Egodawela, the top brass had been prepared to remove the President, even without his consent, by landing a helicopter in the Colombo harbor or by ship. Finally, they resorted to the second option. As the President and First Lady Ayoma got into a vehicle and took the rear exit into the adjoining former Navy Headquarters, mobs entered the President’s House. Another vehicle carrying several other persons followed.

The then Navy Commander Vice Admiral Nishantha Ulugetenne who had been with the President at the President’s House got into the vehicle carrying the President. Had they stayed at the President’s House for 10 more minutes, the consequences could have been devastating. https://island.lk/gotabayas-escape-from-aragalaya-mob-in-rti-spotlight/

Egodawela, who had been with the President from the very beginning of the presidential term, alleged that the raiders planned to kill the President and several others and display their bodies. The author quoted an unidentified intelligence officer as having told him that the raiders wanted to display the bodies the way LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran’s body was shown.

Perhaps shifting the Operations Room from Akuregoda Defence Force Headquarters to the President’s House had been a risky move that, in a way, facilitated the regime change operation. The rationale in bringing those who had been tasked with countering the impending threat to one place (President’s House) to be with the target (Gotabaya Rajapaksa) seems unbelievably a dicey move. The President had been influenced by what he described as inordinate and unforgivable delay on the part of the Akuregoda Operations Room to carry out timely evacuation of Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa on the night of 09 May from Temple Trees. Most probably, the President wanted to oversee the 09 July counter operation personally. But, in hindsight, the decision to shift the Operations Room from Akuregoda to the President’s House obviously hadn’t been a clever move.

SLN preparations

When mobs threatened to overwhelm the President’s security at Pangiriwattta, on 31 March, additional police and STF contingents were brought in. They were followed by the Navy and Air Force. The Army arrived at the scene, subsequently.

As pointed out by the President himself, the situation at Temple Trees, on 09 May, had been far worse and the combined police and armed forces response revealed that they hadn’t taken precautionary/counter measures, even after the Pangiriwatta fiasco.

At the time of the incidents, the overall Temple Trees security deployment included about 60 elite Special Boat Squadron (SBS) personnel deployed within the premises and were supplemented by seven SLN platoons. The Army also moved in to strengthen Temple Trees defences but the mobs pressed on till troops fired blank ammunition.

The top brass, directing counter measures from Akuregoda Defence Force Headquarters, had to act swiftly and decisively to evacuate those at the Temple Trees or face the consequences. As there hadn’t been any other alternative place of living proposed, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, wife Shiranthi and their eldest son Namal were escorted to nearby former Air Force Headquarters and from there flown to the Trincomalee Navy base. VA Ulugetenne, over the phone, issued instructions to the relevant officer in Trincomalee to make arrangements as two helicopters carrying the group took off from the helipad on the top of the former Air Force Headquarters. The helicopters departed around 04 in the morning.

They had stayed at Trincomalee Navy House for about a week and, as requested by the Navy, paid for their stay because by then Mahinda Rajapaksa had resigned. Perhaps, they could have taken refuge at the Panagoda Army cantonment or at Saliyapura, home to the Gajaba Regiment, but, at the end, sought the protection at the Trincomalee Navy base.

Ironically, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, too, had to take refuge at the Trincomalee Navy base, exactly two months later. Ever since the President moved into the President’s House, Fort, the Navy had been on their toes to meet any eventuality. The daunting task of arranging evacuation by sea fell on the shoulders of VA Ulugetenne, who, meticulously, planned the operation with his staff.

Having informed the President of the contingency plans, VA Ulugetenne stationed two Advanced Offshore Patrol Vessels (AOPVs), namely SLNS Sindurala and SLNS Gajabahu and four Fast Attack Craft (FACs), at the Colombo Port. It would be pertinent to mention that SLNS Sindurala, built at the Goa shipyard, in terms of an agreement signed at the tail end of the Mahinda Rajapaksa government, was adjudged the best vessel in the SLN fleet in 2022.

Additional SBS personnel and snipers, too, had been brought in to Colombo though none of them knew exactly what their task would be. The OPV and FAC crews most probably felt that they were awaiting orders for a major anti-drug operation in the high seas.

As the decision was made to evacuate the President and the First Lady, the Chief alerted the vessels and quickly deployed tugboats to pull SLNS Sindurala and, shortly thereafter, SLNS Gajabahu, formerly of the US Coast Guard, carrying the President and the First Lady. By the time the two AOPVs moved in different directions, on the instructions of VA Ulugetenne, the hand phones of SLNS Gajabahu crew were collected to prevent them from revealing what was happening. Along with the AOPVs, two pairs of FACs had moved out to sea. (https://island.lk/ranil-reveals-bid-to-get-rid-of-him-while-gr-was-fleeing-to-trinco-on-board-slns-gajabahu/)

Nearly 12-hour journey to Trinco

The SLNS Gajabahu, formerly of the US Coast Guard, had a crew consisting of over 100 officers and men. Someone, most probably a port employee, posted a short clip of some unidentified persons taking large travelling bags into the ship but the President, First Lady and VA Ulugetenne going in were never captured on a camera.

As the vessel began its journey towards Trincomalee, it remained approximately 12 nautical miles from land and the President received many calls, some of which weren’t answered. VA Ulugetenne, too, received quite a number of calls. Those familiar with the developments at that time said that some felt that SLNS Gajabahu should move out of Sri Lankan waters. There had been suggestions that the destination should be the Maldives, India or Singapore. Regardless of such suggestions, SLNS Gajabahu proceeded towards Trincomalee where the Navy made necessary arrangements to host them.

Captain Marlon Perera, who still serves the Navy, had been the Commanding Officer of the vessel. Perera now holds the Commodore rank.

During the journey precautions were taken to ensure the safety and security of the President and the First Lady. Although the crew hadn’t been aware that they would be entrusted with such a sensitive task at a time the country was in crossroads against the backdrop of an economic collapse and sovereign default, there were fears of the crew being affected by propaganda in support of regime change operation.

The attempt made by sailor Wijemuni Vijitha Rohana de Silva to cause harm to Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, way back in July, 1987, underscored the necessity to take precautions during the Colombo-Trincomalee journey as the possibility of anti-Gotabaya campaign having an impact on at least some members of the ship crew couldn’t be ruled out.

On July 30, 1987, during a guard of honor in Colombo, the 21-year-old naval rating struck Gandhi on the shoulder and back with the butt of his rifle. Gandhi narrowly avoided the full impact of the blow by evasive ducking.

On the invitation of VA Ulugetenne, Gotabaya Rajapaksa attended all the formalities in respect of a visit undertaken by the President to the Trincomalee Navy base. The President participated in those formalities knowing that he couldn’t attend the commissioning parade that was scheduled to be held on 15 July, 2022. The Navy was not in a position to put off the commissioning parade hence the decision to invite Defence Secretary Gunaratne as the Chief Guest.

Ulugetenne retired from active naval service on 18 December, 2022, following a distinguished career, spanning over 37 years. He received the appointment as the 24th Commander of the Navy in July, 2020, just a couple of months after Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s election as the President.

Wickremesinghe, in his capacity as Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s successor, appointed Ulugetenne as Sri Lanka’s Ambassador to Cuba. The appointment was made in late 2023 and the retired Navy Chief presented his credentials to Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel on 13 February, 2024 (https://island.lk/from-fonseka-convictions-to-arrest-of-ulugetenne/)

However, within weeks after the last presidential election held in late November, 2024, the NPP government recalled over a dozen top envoys appointed by the previous administration. Admiral Ulugetenne was among them. The government deprived a decorated officer, who had served the country for nearly four decades, from completing his term in Havana. Within months after his return, he became the target of a murder investigation.

Then out of the blue the retired Navy Chief became the focus of a murder investigation, that, too, post-war. The Criminal Investigation Department (CID) arrested him on 28 July, 2025, over the disappearance of a person reported in July, 2020.

Kurunegala High Court Judge Tikiri Jayatilleke, on 14 October, 2025, granted him bail. Jayatilleke declared that the CID acted in an illegal manner in respect of the former Navy Commander. His counsel Kalinga Indatissa, PC, alleged in court that his client had been apprehended only on the basis of an ex-LTTE cadre’s allegation in the absence of any evidence

The next hearing is scheduled for 08 July, 2026. Ulugetenne was held at the Kegalle Prison for four days and then transferred to the Dumbara (Pallekale) Prison. Altogether, he was in prison for 80 days, like a common criminal, despite him being a former Navy Commander with an unblemished career record.

Wartime Chief of Naval Intelligence, Rear Admiral (retd) Sarath Mohotti, who had been also arrested in connection with the same investigation, was also granted bail, a few weeks later.

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Midweek Review

India should convene a regional El Niño preparedness dialogue in Delhi

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El Niño events have historically been associated with weaker monsoons in South Asia, erratic rainfall patterns, and increased risks of droughts and floods.

The coming months could bring South Asia and the wider Indian Ocean region a dangerous mix of climate shocks, economic strain, and geopolitical instability. At the centre of this looming challenge is the anticipated El Niño event, which is likely to disrupt monsoon patterns, intensify weather extremes, and place additional pressure on already fragile food, water, and energy systems.

But El Niño will not arrive in isolation. It will intersect with continuing global disruptions—from the war in Ukraine to instability in the Middle East—each of which continues to reverberate through energy markets, food supply chains, and shipping routes. The combined effect is likely to be cumulative, not linear.

This is, therefore, a moment that calls for anticipatory regional coordination rather than fragmented national responses.

A record of regional first response

There is already a clear precedent for such coordination in the region.During the COVID-19 pandemic, India emerged as a key first responder, supplying vaccines, medicines, and logistical support across the neighbourhood under its “Neighbourhood First” policy. This helped establish a practical framework for regional cooperation in times of systemic stress.

More recently, India played a similar role during the economic crisis in Sri Lanka, providing critical financial assistance, fuel, and essential supplies at a moment of acute vulnerability. India has also been among the first responders during major climate-related disasters, including cyclone events such as Cyclone Ditwa, delivering rapid humanitarian assistance.

These are not isolated gestures. They reflect an emerging pattern in which India increasingly functions as a stabilising force in the wider region.

This trajectory is reflected in India’s evolving regional frameworks—from Neighbourhood First, to SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region), and now the broader MAHASAGAR vision, which signals an expanded maritime and regional engagement architecture.

Why El Niño is different this time

El Niño events have historically been associated with weaker monsoons in South Asia, erratic rainfall patterns, and increased risks of droughts and floods. In a region where agriculture remains highly climate-sensitive, even modest deviations can translate into inflation, rural distress, and fiscal pressure.

This year, however, the risks are compounded by global fragilities:

* Persistent food and fertilizer price volatility

* Elevated energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions

* Supply chain disruptions in key commodities

* High debt burdens in several neighbouring economies

Together, these factors reduce the resilience of national systems and increase the risk of cascading shocks across borders.It is also important to recognise that social instability in some fragile countries in the region should be kept in mind, as climate shocks and economic pressures can quickly reinforce each other and create wider humanitarian and political consequences.

The case for a Delhi-based regional initiative

Against this backdrop, there is a strong case for India to convene a regional El Niño preparedness dialogue in Delhi, bringing together neighbouring countries, key development partners, and multilateral institutions.

This should not be limited to South Asia alone. The impacts of El Niño extend across the wider Indo-Pacific and Indian Ocean region. Participation could include:

* Neighbouring states in South and Southeast Asia

* The United Nations system

* The World Bank and Asian Development Bank

* Key bilateral partners such as Japan and others active in regional resilience

Given its geographic position, institutional capacity, and experience as a first responder, it is both natural and appropriate for India to chair such an initiative.

What the initiative should focus on

The objective should be practical coordination rather than declaratory statements. Three areas stand out:

1. Shared forecasting and early warning systems

Strengthening real-time exchange of climate data, monsoon projections, and sectoral risk mapping, particularly for agriculture, water, and fisheries.

2. Contingency planning for essential supplies

Coordinating regional approaches to food reserves, fertilizer availability, and energy supply buffers during climatic disruptions.

3. Disaster response and financing coordination

Improving interoperability among disaster management systems, and exploring rapid-response financing through multilateral development banks for climate-related shocks.

From Neighbourhood First to MAHASAGAR

India’s regional doctrine has steadily evolved—from Neighbourhood First to SAGAR, and now MAHASAGAR—reflecting a broader conception of responsibility in the Indian Ocean region.Each stage has expanded the scope of engagement: from immediate neighbourhood assistance, to maritime cooperation and growth, to a wider vision of regional interconnectedness.

A structured El Niño preparedness initiative would be a natural continuation of this trajectory, embedding climate resilience into the region’s evolving strategic architecture.

Climate as regional security

The distinction between climate events and security outcomes is increasingly blurred. A failed monsoon in one country can trigger food inflation in another; a cyclone can disrupt trade routes; droughts can accelerate migration pressures and fiscal instability.

El Niño should therefore be seen not only as a meteorological phenomenon but as a systemic stress test for regional resilience.

India is already widely seen in the region as a first responder in times of crisis. The experiences of COVID-19, the Sri Lankan economic emergency, and climate-related disasters have reinforced this role in practical terms.

The next step is to move from reactive response to anticipatory coordination.

A Delhi-based regional El Niño preparedness meeting—anchored by India and supported by multilateral institutions and key bilateral partners—would be a timely and pragmatic initiative. In an era of compounding global risks, regional cooperation is no longer optional; it is essential.

(Milinda Moragoda is the Founder of the Pathfinder Foundation. Can be contacted via email@milinda.org, courtesy wionews.com.

by Milinda Moragoda

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Midweek Review

Beyond Harsha’s IMF “Revelations”

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Harsha

“A demagogue is one who preaches doctrines he knows to be untrue to men he knows to be idiots.” — H.L. Mencken

Summary

During a recent television appearance (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s0QWfenCFlk) , opposition MP and Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chair Dr. Harsha de Silva dramatically brandished the latest IMF Letter of Intent (LoI, 13 May 2026), pointing to the signatures of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Central Bank Governor Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe as proof of a “secret” alignment with austerity and cost-reflective utility pricing. However, for serious students of Sri Lankan macroeconomics, this “revelation” contained no new information. The legal, structural, and institutional mandate for cost-reflective pricing was codified long before the current administration took office—embedded in the IMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF) of 2023, the 2023 IMF Governance Diagnostic, and the Economic Transformation Act of 2024. This article argues that veteran economists in parliament must move beyond theatrical “gotcha” moments designed for political popularity and instead fulfill their true duty: educating the public on the non-negotiable continuity of structural adjustment programmess.

Anatomy of a Non-Revelation

The recent spectacle of Dr. Harsha de Silva presenting the IMF Letter of Intent on live television was framed as a grand exposure of the current administration’s hidden fiscal policy. With theatrical emphasis, Dr. de Silva pointed to the signatures of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) and the Central Bank Governor, declaring that the government had bound the public to the bitter pill of cost-reflective electricity and fuel pricing.

Yet, to anyone who understands the mechanics of central banking and sovereign debt restructuring, this performance revealed nothing that was not already part of (i) the public, (ii) legal, and (iii) institutional reality. A Letter of Intent is a standard operational requirement of the IMF review process; it is not a newly minted policy conceived in secret. By treating a routine administrative continuity as a shocking disclosure, Dr. de Silva engaged in political showmanship rather than economic education.

Legacy of Cost-Reflective Pricing

The narrative that cost-reflective utility pricing is a novel concession by the AKD administration is factually incorrect. The institutional architecture to eliminate non-commercial losses within the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) and Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) was firmly established under the previous administration of Ranil Wickremesinghe.

The structural benchmarks were explicitly laid out in (i) the March 2023 IMF EFF Agreement and (ii) re-emphasized in the September 2023 IMF Governance Diagnostic Report. This framework was further consolidated by the legislature through (i) the Economic Transformation Act of 2024 and (ii) the new Sri Lanka Electricity Act. When the current administration assumed office, the fiscal tracks had already been laid. President AKD is merely operating the machinery of state within the legal and economic boundaries inherited from his predecessor Ranil Wickremesinghe to prevent a secondary default.

The Myth of the Solitary Saviour

There is a troubling tendency among Sri Lanka’s technocratic elite to engage in a saviour complex—positioning themselves on television screens as the singular authorities capable of managing public finance or navigating international waters. Dr. de Silva’s presentation was less about unveiling unknown data and more about projecting an image of unrivaled smartness in public finance.

When veteran economists resort to these manoeuvers, they diminish their own professional standing. Sri Lanka’s economic recovery does not hinge on the brilliant insights of a single individual or party; it depends on (i) institutional discipline, (ii) data-driven planning, and (iii) structural continuity. Pretending that routine compliance documents are exclusive intelligence updates serves only to feed personal political popularity at the expense of public intellectual growth.

Real Politics behind the Screen

Why, then, did Dr. de Silva choose to make a mountain out of an administrative molehill? The answer lies in pure political strategy. The National People’s Power (NPP) platform ascended to governance on strong anti-austerity rhetoric, promising relief from the heavy tax and tariff burdens imposed by the previous regime.

By holding up the signed LoI, Dr. de Silva sought a political checkmate. His objective was to expose the contradiction between the NPP’s populist election promises and its executive actions. While highlighting this policy convergence is fair game in partisan politics, framing it as a “new discovery” misleads the electorate into believing that the IMF programme is an optional, arbitrarily signed document rather than a legally binding national framework that leaves any sitting President with zero alternative manoeuvers.

True Mandate of Parliament’s Financial Oversight

During the broadcast, the fundamental boundary of the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) was brought into question. Dr. de Silva correctly noted that COPF does not formulate state policy—that remains the strict prerogative of the Executive and its chosen advisors. COPF’s true mandate is oversight: ensuring transparency, accountability, and the efficient monitoring of state revenues and expenditures.

If the head of our public finance oversight body wishes to protect the national interest, that energy should be (ii) directed toward evaluating the actual performance scorecards of state institutions, (ii) tracking structural benchmarks, and (iii) monitoring the real-time efficiency of economic programs. Using the platform of technical oversight to score quick points on a talk show blurs the vital line between a state auditor and a political campaigner.

Conclusion: The Need for Institutional Candour

Sri Lanka has paid a catastrophic price for populist rhetoric and the manipulation of economic facts for electoral gain. What the public requires from veteran economists and seasoned politicians today is not more political theater but radical candor.

The truth is simple: Sri Lanka is locked into a long-term, institutional structural adjustment programme that transcends whoever sits in the presidential secretariat. President AKD is executing pre-existing state commitments because the alternative is immediate economic isolation. Rather than trying to convince the public that they alone possess the secret key to salvation, opposition technocrats owe it to the nation to elevate the discourse. It is time to replace television showmanship with (i) honest, (ii) evidence-based planning, (iii) acknowledging that while politicians change, the arithmetic of national survival remains exactly the same.

(The writer, among many, served as the Special Advisor to the Office of the President of Namibia from 2006 to 2012 and was a Senior Consultant with the UNDP for 20 years. He was a Senior Economist with the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (1972-1993). He can be reached via asoka.seneviratne@gmail.com)

By Prof. Asoka S. Seneviratne

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