Features
IMF Loan Talks: Here’s how we need to prepare
By Ahmad Ahsan
Two points stand out in the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) statement from last week about the current economic situation in Bangladesh. First, Bangladesh is “not in a crisis situation.” Second, any economic programme to address the current challenges to our economy will be the government’s programme. Specifically, the statement said, “It is the authority’s programme and our efforts will be focused on collaborating with them to design a programme which will support them in addressing their long-term structural issues.”
Bangladeshi economists have also pointed out we are not in a crisis but facing difficult external conditions that need firm handling so that they do not become one. With four to five months of foreign exchange reserves and low foreign debt, we have enough ammunition to address short-term needs, barring other big shocks. As announced by the Fund, the discussions on this programme will take place in October.
With these positive developments and government actions to lower imports, such as depreciating the currency and allowing banks to trade more freely, the dollar kerb market is calmer. As I write, the dollar has fallen there – i.e., the taka has regained value – by 10 percent over the last 10 days.At the same time, as the government knows, there is no room for complacency or errors made in haste. Instead, let us use the current challenge to strengthen our economy.
As a previous August 3 IMF statement puts it, the reality is that our economy faces “a sharp deterioration in external conditions.” The immediate issue is not foreign debt but rather the record-breaking trade deficit of USD 33 billion and the current account deficit of USD 19 billion – i.e., the deficit even after including the USD 22 billion of remittances receipts sent by heroic Bangladeshi workers abroad. To put things in perspective, last year’s current account deficit increased nearly five times over the FY 2021 deficit and is almost four times the average current account deficit of the past five years.
Current account deficits are fundamentally the result of spending more than our income or, what is the same, importing more goods and services than we export. So, managing the current account will mean that our imports will need to grow markedly less than our exports in the next few years.
The immediate driver behind the high external deficits has been the spike in energy, fertiliser, food, and edible oil import prices. But that is not all. Even without these import price increases the current account deficit of FY 2022 would have been significant – perhaps twice that of the previous year.
That is because long-pending unaddressed structural weaknesses have made the economy and exports less diversified and competitive. These problems include low revenues and inadequate public expenditures, made worse by weak management; a strained financial sector burdened by non-performing loans, weak governance and interest rate caps; weakness in infrastructure, energy and urban development planning – all of which lower our economy’s competitiveness.
More fundamentally, an insufficiently trained labour force and a burdensome investment climate constrain our economy, as evidenced by the minimal foreign direct investment inflows. These are not long-term but pressing matters. Because of these weaknesses, we excessively depend on foreign services and skilled expatriate workers. Thus, our gross external payments for these services have almost doubled over the past five years to approximately USD 14 billion.
One driver of our large deficit is that our real exchange rate appreciated by more than 70 percent over the past decade, which made imports cheaper and our exports more expensive. That needed a correction. The depreciation of the taka by about 10 percent over the past few months has been one response. However, signalling that the exchange rate may still be unsettled, the kerb rate premia – the difference between the interbank rate and the kerb rate – remains at about 14 percent.
Thus, we will need realistic thinking. Assuming that energy prices will steadily decline is not warranted, given that winter is coming to Europe and North America. Even if Iranian oil enters the global market, it will provide only one percent of demand. European countries are stocking up and contracting oil and LNG supplies to avoid the perils of an unheated cold winter. Facing these conditions and high inflation, European and American demand for our exports will likely be subdued, even with some switching to our cheaper garments products. A global food shortage and rising prices are also all but guaranteed. Together, these ingredients can lead to deeper and longer-term economic difficulties and even a crisis for globalised developing economies such as ours.
Further, economic events during times of uncertainty, such as now, can be sudden and unexpected, as we have already discovered. It becomes critical for governments to stay ahead of events by preparing a well-coordinated programme to stabilise the economy and be ready for contingencies.How should the government prepare such a coherent, well-coordinated programme? There needs to be three elements in it.First, as good civil servants will tell you, strong political leadership will be imperative. For speed and authority, it may be best to organise a small economic committee of ministers that has the confidence of the prime minister to prepare and implement such a programme.
They and their civil service team should prepare large parts of the economic stabilisation and recovery policy package in advance of the IMF’s visit, negotiate with them when they arrive, and steer it through Cabinet approval. That will enable better coordination and political support. Leaving this task alone with the Ministry of Finance and the Bangladesh Bank could slow things.
A historically good example of this comes from India during its foreign exchange crisis of 1991, when, with the support of the IMF, they prepared and implemented a path-breaking economic reforms package. Reputed Indian economists say that was the programme that generated 20 years of rapid economic growth. That reform programme was almost wholly Indian prepared by then Finance Minister Manmohan Singh with the partnership of Commerce Minister P Chidambaram, with technical inputs provided by then Finance Secretary Montek Ahluwalia and other civil servants. Certainly, the steadfast political support of PM Narasimha Rao made it possible. Other examples are Thailand’s Cabinet Committee for Economic Policy, Indonesia’s Industry and Economic Committee, and Malaysia’s Special Cabinet Committee to protect the Economy and Labour market against Covid-19.
Who should be the members of such a committee in Bangladesh? The ministers of finance, agriculture, commerce and planning perhaps, along with the participation of the Governor of the Bangladesh Bank. The Foreign Ministry can advise on fraught matters such as assuring Europe and the US if we import oil from Russia. Including the road transport and bridges minister can provide political heft.
Second, while the Finance Minister does not need to be the chair of such a committee, the secretariat of this committee has to be the Ministry of Finance, and it has to be staffed by the most experienced civil servants in finance and the other ministries. Finance, in particular, is a ministry where nothing can replace the experience of working there for years. Difficult policy decisions about revenues, expenditure, subsidies, exchange rates, interest rates, bank governance, food and energy prices, regulations and safety nets will be needed. Only civil servants with the experience and knowledge of their subject will have the confidence to lay down situations and options most starkly to their political superiors. If this link in the chain falls, the political masters will be uninformed and blindsided.
Third, outside experts and stakeholders need to be consulted not only for their advice, but also to communicate the objective situation and get their support. Bangladesh has several former governors, finance secretaries and other civil servants who have effectively dealt with the IMF and with difficult economic situations in the past. We also have competent economists, including some with first-hand experience working in crisis-prone countries. Bangladesh also has thoughtful stakeholders in the chambers of commerce and business associations who can offer valuable perspectives. Finally, major political figures should also be taken into confidence to at least attempt to get unity behind the recovery programme.
(Dr Ahmad Ahsan is the director of the Policy Research Institute (PRI) of Bangladesh and a former World Bank economist and Dhaka University faculty member. Views expressed in this article are the author’s own.)
Features
Mannar’s silent skies: Migratory Flamingos fall victim to power lines amid Wind Farm dispute
By Ifham Nizam
A fresh wave of concern has gripped conservationists following the reported deaths of migratory flamingos within the Vankalai Sanctuary—a globally recognised bird habitat—raising urgent questions about the ecological cost of large-scale renewable energy projects in the region.
The incident comes at a time when a fundamental rights petition, challenging the proposed wind power project, linked to India’s Adani Group, remains under examination before the Supreme Court, with environmental groups warning that the very risks they highlighted are now materialising.
At least two flamingos—believed to be part of the iconic migratory flocks that travel thousands of kilometres to reach Sri Lanka—were found dead after entanglement with high-tension transmission lines running across the sanctuary. Another bird was reportedly struggling for survival.
Professor Sampath Seneviratne, a leading ornithologist, expressed deep concern over the development, noting that such incidents are not isolated but indicative of a broader and predictable threat.
“These migratory birds depend on specific flyways that have remained unchanged for centuries. When high-risk infrastructure, like poorly planned power lines, intersect these routes, collisions become inevitable,” he said. “What we are witnessing now could be just the beginning if proper mitigation measures are not urgently implemented.”
Environmentalists argue that the Mannar region—particularly the Vankalai wetland complex—is one of the most critical stopover sites in South Asia for migratory waterbirds, including flamingos, pelicans, and various species of waders. The sanctuary’s ecological value has also supported a niche with growing eco-tourism sector, drawing birdwatchers from around the world.
Executive Director of the Centre for Environmental Justice, Dilena Pathragoda, said the incident underscores the urgency of judicial intervention and stricter environmental oversight.
“This tragedy is a direct consequence of ignoring scientifically established environmental safeguards. We have already raised these concerns before court, particularly regarding the location of transmission infrastructure within sensitive bird habitats,” Pathragoda said.
“Renewable energy cannot be pursued in isolation from ecological responsibility. If due process and proper environmental impact assessments are bypassed or diluted, then such losses are inevitable.”
Conservation groups have long cautioned that the installation of wind turbines and associated grid infrastructure—especially overhead transmission lines—within or near sensitive habitats could transform these landscapes into lethal zones for avifauna.
An environmental activist involved in the ongoing legal challenge said the latest deaths validate earlier warnings.
“This is exactly what we feared. Development is necessary, but not at the cost of biodiversity. When projects of this scale proceed without adequate ecological assessments and safeguards, the consequences are irreversible,” the activist stressed.
The debate has once again brought into focus the delicate balance between renewable energy expansion and biodiversity conservation. While wind energy is widely promoted as a clean alternative to fossil fuels, experts caution that “green” does not automatically mean “harmless.”
Professor Seneviratne emphasised that solutions do exist, including rerouting transmission lines, installing bird diverters, and conducting comprehensive migratory pathway studies prior to project approval.
“Globally, there are well-established mitigation strategies. The issue here is not the absence of knowledge, but the failure to apply it effectively,” he noted.
The timing of the incident is particularly worrying. Migratory flamingos typically remain in Sri Lanka until late April or May before embarking on their return journeys. Conservationists warn that if hazards remain unaddressed, larger flocks could face similar risks in the coming weeks.
Beyond ecological implications, experts also highlight potential economic fallout. Wildlife tourism—especially birdwatching—contributes significantly to local livelihoods in Mannar.
Repeated reports of bird deaths could deter eco-conscious travellers and damage the region’s reputation as a safe haven for migratory species.
Environmentalists are now calling for immediate intervention by authorities, including a temporary halt to high-risk operations in sensitive zones, pending a thorough environmental review.
They stress that protecting animal movement corridors—whether elephant migration routes or avian flyways—is a fundamental pillar of modern conservation.
As the controversy unfolds, one question looms large: can Sri Lanka pursue sustainable energy without sacrificing the very natural heritage that defines it?
Pathragoda added that for now, the sight of fallen flamingos in Mannar stands as a stark reminder that development, if not carefully planned, can carry a heavy and irreversible cost.
Features
‘Weaponizing’ religion in the pursuit of power
A picture of US President Donald Trump apparently being prayed for by supporters, appearing in sections of the international media, said it all loud and clear. That is, religion is being flagrantly leveraged or prostituted by politicians single-mindedly bent on furthering their power aspirations.
Although in the case of the US President the trend took on may be an exceptionally graphic or dramatic form, the ‘weaponizing’ of religion is nothing particularly new, nor is it confined to only religiously conservative sections of the West. For example, in South Asia it is an integral part of politics. The ‘South Asian Eight’ are notorious for it and it could be unreservedly stated that in Sri Lanka, the latter’s ethnic conflict would be more amenable to resolution if religion was not made a potent weapon by ambitious politicians of particularly the country’s South.
The more enlightened sections of Christian believers in the US may not have been able to contain their consternation at the sight of the US President apparently being ‘blessed’ by pastors claiming adherence to Christianity. Any human is entitled to be blessed but not if he is leading his country to war without exhausting all the options at his disposal to end the relevant conflict by peaceful means.
More compounded would be his problem if his directives lead to the death of civilians in the hundreds. In the latter case he is stringently accountable for the spilling of civilian blood, that is, the committing of war crimes.
However, the US along with Israel did just that in the recent bombings of Iran, for instance. The majority of the lives lost were those of civilians. If the US President is endowed with a Christian conscience he would have paused to consider that he is guilty of ordering the taking of the life of another human which is forbidden in the teachings of Jesus Christ.
Moreover, the ‘pastors’ praying over the US President should have thought on the above lines as well. May be they were in an effort to curry the President’s favour which is as blame-worthy as legitimizing in some form the taking of civilian lives. Apparently, the realisation is not dawning on all Christian conservatives of the US that some of these ‘pastors’ could very well be the proverbial false prophets and the latter are almost everywhere, even in far distant Sri Lanka.
However, the political reality ‘on the ground’ is that the Christian Right is a stable support base of the Republican Right in the US. Considering this it should not come as a surprise to the seasoned political watcher if the Christian Right, read Christian fundamentalists, are hand-in-glove, so to speak, with President Trump. But it is a scathing indictment on these rightist sections that they are all for perpetrating war and destruction and not for the fostering of peace and reconciliation. Ideally, they should have impressed on their President the dire need to make peace.
That said, political commentators should consider it incumbent on themselves to point out that religion is being ‘weaponized’ in Iran as well. Theocratic rule in Iran has been essentially all about perpetuating the power of the clerical class. The reasons that led to the Islamic Revolution in Iran are complex and the indiscreet Westernization of Iran under the Shah dynasty is one of these but one would have expected Iran to develop from then on into a multi-party, pluralistic democratic state where people would be enjoying their fundamental rights, as enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, for example.
Moreover, Iran should have taken it upon itself to be a champion of world peace, in keeping with its Islamic credentials. But some past regimes in Iran had vowed to virtually bomb Israel out of existence and such regional policy trajectories could only bring perpetual conflict and war. Considering the current state of the Middle East it could be said that the unfettered playing out of these animosities is leading the region and the world to ‘reap the whirlwind’, having recklessly ‘sowed the wind’.
However, religious fundamentalism-inspired conflict and war has spread well beyond the Middle East into almost every region since 1979, the year of the Islamic Revolution in Iran. So much so, knowledgeable opinion now points out that religious identity has come to replace nationalism as a principal shaper of international politics or “geopolitics”, as quite a few sections misleadingly and incorrectly term it.
Elaborating on the decisive influence of religious identity, the well known and far traveled Western journalist Patrick Cockburn says in his authoritative and comprehensive book titled, ‘The Age of Jihad – Islamic State and the Great War for the Middle East’ at page 428 in connection with the war in Chechnya ; ‘If nationalism was not entirely dead, it no longer provided the ideological glue necessary to hold together and motivate people who were fighting a war. Unlike the Islamic faith, it was no longer a belief or a badge of identity for which people would fight very hard.’ (The book in reference was published by VERSO, London and New York).
In his wide coverage of Jihadist Wars the world over Cockburn goes on to state that today a call from a cleric could motivate his followers to lay down no less than their lives for a cause championed by the former. The 9/11 catastrophe alone should convince the observer that this is indeed true.
However, as often pointed out in this column, there is no alternative but to foster peace and reconciliation if a world free of bloodshed and strife is what is being sought. Fortunately we are not short of illustrious persons from the East and West who have shone a light on how best to get to a degree of peace. Besides Mahatma Gandhi of India, who was the subject of this column last week, we have former President of Iran Mohammad Khatami, who made a case for a ‘Dialogue of Civilizations’ rather than a ‘Clash of Civilizations’.
The time is more than ripe to take a leaf from these illustrious personalities, for, the current state of war in the Middle East has raised the possibility of a war that could transcend regional boundaries. The antagonists are obliged to exhaust all the peaceful options with the assistance of the UN system. Besides, war cannot ever have the blessings of the sane.
Features
Venerable Rahula Thera’s 35-year green mission and national Namal Uyana
It was 35 years ago, on March 28, 1991, that Venerable Rahula Thera, then a young monk, embarked on a journey to the Na forest in Ulpathagama, Palagama, in the Anuradhapura District. Today, three and a half decades later, this mission stands as living proof of the enduring bond between Buddhist philosophy and the natural world.
Marking the 35th year of this green mission, Rahula Thera’s relentless dedication has transformed the National Namal Uyana into an environmental landmark admired not only across Sri Lanka but around the globe, as well.
When studying the life of Venerable Rahula Thera, one cannot ignore the profound connection between Buddhism and the environment. Buddhism is a philosophy deeply attuned to nature. The historical use of the sacred “Na Ruka” by all four Buddhas: Mangala Buddha, Sumana Buddha, Revata Buddha, and Sobhita Buddha — for enlightenment —demonstrates that from time immemorial, Buddhism has maintained a sacred bond with the Na tree. From the birth of Siddhartha to his enlightenment, the propagation of the Dharma, and even the great Parinirvana, all of these milestones unfolded in verdant, living landscapes.
Venerable Rahula Thera did not embark on the Namal Uyana mission seeking government support or personal gain. His commitment sprang from a deep devotion to the Buddha’s teachings on grove cultivation. A grove cultivator is one who spreads compassion for nature. As the Vanaropa Sutta teaches:
Venerable Rahula Thera reclaimed Namal Uyana which was then under the control of timber smugglers and treasure hunters. The term “Wanawasi” does not merely mean living in a forest; it signifies finding rest and enlightenment through nature, free from the destructive roots of greed, sin, and delusion.
Another defining aspect of Venerable Rahula Thera’s 35-year mission is the purification of the human mind. He has consistently taught the thousands who visit Namal Uyana that a person who loves a tree will never harm another human being. As the Dhamma proclaims:
It is important to remember that Venerable Rahula Thera devoted his life, without fear, speaking the truth and taking necessary action, tirelessly advancing the national mission he began. From 1991 to the present, he has worked with every government elected by the people, maintaining impartiality and independence from political ideology. Yet, he never hesitated to raise his voice fearlessly against any individual, of any rank or party, who committed wrongdoing.
Religious and Social Mission
The National Namal Uyana is not merely a forest; it is a magnificent heritage site, dating back to ancient times. Scattered across the landscape are boundary walls, the remains of ancient monastery complexes, and stone carvings believed to date back to the reign of King Devanampiyatissa. In earlier centuries, this sacred land had served as a meditation sanctuary for hundreds of monks. The name “National Namal Uyana,” by which this ecological and archaeological treasure is known today, was introduced by Venerable Rahula Thera in 1991. The government’s later recognition of the site as the National Namal Uyana stands as a significant achievement for both religion and national heritage.
Venerable Rahula Thera is a monk who has lived a life of renunciation. A striking example of this is his decision not to assume the position of Chief Incumbent of the National Namal Uyana Viharaya, instead entrusting the temple to the Ramanna Nikaya and its trustees. In doing so, he set a precedent for the contemporary Sangha. The Thera himself stated that he was merely the trustee of Namal Uyana, not its owner.
Legacy and Continuing Inspiration
The 35th anniversary of Venerable Wanawasi Rahula Thera’s arrival at Namal Uyana is not merely the commemoration of a period of time; it is a message of nature to future generations. Through his work, the Thera revived the ancient Hela tradition of loving trees and venerating the environment as something sacred. This religious and environmental mission remains unforgettable.
The revival experienced by Namal Uyana, after the arrival of Venerable Wanawasi Rahula Thera, is beyond simple description. Some of the major accomplishments achieved under his leadership include:
* Securing and protecting the largest Rose Quartz (Rosa Thirivana) reserve in South Asia.
* Restoring the Na forest spread across hundreds of acres, providing shelter to numerous rare plants and animal species.
* Transforming the area into a living centre for environmental education, offering practical learning experiences for thousands of schoolchildren and university students.
* Drawing the attention of world leaders and international environmentalists to Sri Lanka’s unique environmental heritage.
In recognition of his immense contribution to environmental conservation, Venerable Rahula Thera was honoured with the Presidential Environment Award and the Green Award in 2004—a significant moment in his life. Yet the Thera himself has always remained devoted to the work rather than the recognition it brings, making such appreciation even more meaningful.
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