Opinion
(This is the First in the series of ‘PATHFINDER NATIONAL SECURITY BRIEF issued by the Pathfinder Foundation. Readers’ comments via email to pm@pathfinderfoundation.org are welcome.)
INTRODUCTION
Over time, the illicit drug trade has evolved into one of the most lucrative global industries, its tendrils now extending across multiple regions and presenting a profound challenge to global peace and stability. Drug trafficking is a transnational illegal commerce involving cultivators, manufacturers, transporters, suppliers, and distributors, all operating in defiance of drug prohibition laws. According to the Global Financial Integrity report published by the Washington-based think tank in March 2017, the global business of transnational crime is estimated to generate between $1.6 trillion and $2.2 trillion annually.
This study, The Pathfinder Foundation team, which assessed the criminal market across 11 categories, revealed that drug trafficking accounted for the second-highest value, ranging between $426 billion and $526 billion in 2014 alone, constituting approximately 1% of total global trade in that year. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) World Drug Report 2022 highlighted that in 2020, an estimated 284 million individuals aged 15-64 globally used drugs within that year, with 209 million consuming cannabis, 61 million using opioids, and 31 million engaging with amphetamines, reflecting a 20% increase over the decade. Furthermore, the report highlights that in 2022, approximately 7 million people were in formal contact with the police for drug-related offences, and over 1.6 million people were convicted globally.
Transnational criminal syndicates traffic a range of drugs, including cannabis, cocaine, heroin, and synthetic substances, across various regions, generating substantial financial gains and perpetuating violence and criminality within societies. Drug trafficking is an enterprise primarily driven by monetary incentives, serving as a significant revenue source for organised criminal factions. Many of these syndicates are also involved in other heinous activities, such as arms and human trafficking, money laundering, immigration offences, and they are even implicated in the financing of terrorism.
The trade in illicit drugs has the most harmful societal, political, and economic consequences, threatening the very fabric of societies through addiction, criminality, and the spread of disease. Technological advancements, liberal economic policies, poverty, endemic corruption, and, notably, the lack of robust national legislative frameworks capable of addressing the evolving dynamics of drug trafficking, have become key contributors to the proliferation of this illicit trade, thereby jeopardising global security structures.
AIM
In this context, The Pathfinder Foundation in this study aims to investigate the interconnected roles of cultivators, producers, transporters, suppliers, and dealers within the drug trafficking network and to identify the potential threats and security challenges posed to the South Asian region, particularly from a Sri Lankan perspective.
OVERVIEW OF DRUG TRAFFICKING IN SOUTH ASIA
The South Asian region has increasingly become a significant conduit for illicit drugs destined for the international market, with the “Golden Crescent,” covering the mountainous peripheries of Afghanistan and Pakistan, extending into eastern Iran and known to be the largest supplier of narcotic substances globally. Additionally, the “Golden Triangle,” a mountainous region bordering Thailand, Myanmar, and Laos, has been identified as one of the world’s foremost areas for the production of synthetic drugs, alongside traditional opium cultivation. The opium production originating from these two regions, located at the crossroads of Central, South, and West Asia, accounts for approximately 90% of the global illicit drug trade. Opium production in Central and West Asian countries is transported via the Arabian Sea towards the final destinations in the West and the East. Consequently, India, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives have become key transit points in the eastern maritime path known as the “Southern route.”
Indicative Afghan Heroin Trafficking Routes
Source: UNDOC Research publication in June 2015. UNODC elaboration is based on seizure data from the Drug Monitoring Platform, Individual Drug Seizures, and Annual Report Questionnaires, supplemented by national and other official reports.
OVERVIEW OF DRUG TRAFFICKING IN INDIA
India’s strategic proximity to both the “Golden Crescent” and the “Golden Triangle,” along with its extensive pharmaceutical industry, has made the country vulnerable as both a destination and transit point in the global drug trade. According to the Narcotic Control Bureau (NCB), approximately 70% of the illegal drugs entering India are smuggled via sea routes from the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.
The World Drug Report 2022 states that India ranks fourth in the volume of opium seized in 2020, with 5.2 tons confiscated, and third in the amount of morphine seized, totalling 0.7 tons in the same year. The Indian coastal belt, which stretches across the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, along with neighbouring countries such as Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and the Maldives, is particularly vulnerable to maritime trafficking, given their exposure to trafficking routes across the Indian Ocean.
OVERVIEW OF DRUG TRAFFICKING IN SRI LANKA
Sri Lanka’s geographic location has invariably positioned the country as a pivotal conduit in the international drug supply chain, linking the East to the West. In Sri Lanka, most illicit drugs, originating overseas, are trafficked into the country via the Arabian Sea. The trafficking operations are notably complex, involving multiple actors: growers, producers, transporters, dealers, and local distributors. Often, the dealers are of Sri Lankan origin who reside in the Gulf region.
The suppliers originate from tribal areas in Pakistan, and the transporters or smugglers, typically of Iranian origin, operate across the Indian Ocean. The local distributors, often based along Sri Lanka’s coastal belt, are directly linked to criminal syndicate leaders in the Middle East. In addition to maritime routes, trafficking occurs via container shipping, airline passengers, and postal services, including fast parcels.
The National Dangerous Drug Control Board (NDDCB) is the principal national institution mandated with the prevention and control of drug abuse in Sri Lanka. Established in 1984, its primary objective is to eradicate the drug menace from the country. According to a 2024 research publication by the NDDCB, the total number of drug-related arrests in 2023 reached 162,088. Of these arrests, 66,142 (40.8%) were related to heroin, 68,845 (42.2%) to cannabis, and 26,096 (16.1%) to methamphetamine. This marks a 90% increase in drug-related arrests from the 89,321 recorded in 2019. The same report highlights a steady rise in the quantity of drugs seized between 2019 and 2022, with cannabis seizures more than doubling and methamphetamine seizures increasing significantly during that period. Correspondingly, arrests for drug-related offences have also risen in line with the increase in drug seizures during the same timeframe.
Drug Related Arrests in Sri Lanka (2019-2023)
Source: The National Dangerous Drug Control Board (NDDCB) publication on Drug Related Statistics, Arrests & Treatment January – December 2023
Quantity of Drug Seized in Sri Lanka (2019-2023)
Source: The National Dangerous Drug Control Board (NDDCB) publication on Drug Related Statistics, Arrests & Treatment, January – December 2023
Recent studies conducted by the NDDCB on illicit drug use in Sri Lanka indicate a significant shift in consumption patterns. Initially, cannabis was the predominant drug consumed, particularly by those residing in urban townships. However, over time, there has been a marked transition towards methamphetamine use. Several studies, undertaken by both government and non-government research institutions in the region, have further corroborated this alarming trend, highlighting a sharp rise in the use of synthetic drugs. While the timeframes for these shifts may vary across different destinations due to a range of factors, the overall trend underscores the growing prevalence of artificial drugs within the region.
EMERGING TRENDS AND CHALLENGES
A report released by the Research and Trend Analysis Branch of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), based on a survey of opium cultivation and production in Afghanistan, following the ban imposed by the de facto authorities in Afghanistan (DfA) on poppy cultivation and all narcotic substances in April 2022, reveals a dramatic 95% decline in cultivation in 2023. Notably, however, the same research found that, in contrast to opiates, methamphetamine trafficking continues to surge within the region. An analysis of emerging trends and evolving patterns in drug trafficking indicates a significant shift from traditional narcotics to synthetic drugs, such as amphetamine-type stimulants and chemical precursors. In the long term, these developments may result in a change of heroin purity coming into the market, an increase in addiction, particularly among youth and potential demand for opiate treatment facilities, etc.
The centralisation of command structures, the use of advanced technology, and the decentralisation of distribution networks, in response to increased demand, have generated larger profits for criminal syndicates and facilitated the expansion of trafficking networks across regions. The evolution of digital communication platforms has introduced a novel dimension to both the demand and distribution of illicit drugs. With rapid technological advancements, drug traffickers are leveraging online platforms to identify, market, and deliver their products to end users at competitive rates while minimising risk for both suppliers and recipients. Moreover, access to these illicit substances has become easier than ever, resulting not only in an increase in demand but also in a significant potential threat to the social fabric of societies.
PATHFINDER WAY FORWARD
Development and Implementation of an Effective National Drug Control Strategy: The South Asian region is characterised by a mix of post-conflict, least-developed, and middle-income states, each facing common and unique challenges. Regional cooperation is essential for an effective and coordinated response to the drug problem. A reformed, coordinated, and concentrated effort involving all stakeholders, including government agencies, civil society, academia, and other relevant segments, is imperative for the development and implementation of an effective strategy in combating drug trafficking in the region.
International Cooperation, Collaboration, and Coordination
: International cooperation remains fundamental in developing a comprehensive solution to the drug trafficking threat. Sharing data, knowledge, and expertise with international partners will enable the identification of new trends and facilitate the design of programmatic responses to address these emerging issues. Creating a common regional information-sharing platform to share intelligence and real-time information would further strengthen cooperation, collaboration, and coordination among inter- and intra-regional agencies to disrupt drug trafficking in the region.
Incorporation of UN Drug Control Conventions into Domestic Legal Frameworks: Although almost all nations are currently parties to the UN International Drug Control Conventions of 1961, 1971, and 1988, their provisions are not fully incorporated into domestic legal frameworks. Therefore, it is vital to include the said provisions into local legislations and policies in compliance with international drug control conventions, as this would significantly contribute to combating drug trafficking.
Research and Survey
: Understanding the intricate connections between cultivators, producers, transporters, suppliers, dealers, and the complex web of individuals and criminal syndicates involved in drug trafficking and consumption presents significant challenges. The effectiveness of current global and regional anti-narcotic measures further adds to the uncertainty in predicting the threats posed by drug trafficking. Therefore, continuous research and surveys are essential. These efforts not only assist in combating drug trafficking but also help nations identify emerging trends, assess potential threats to national security, and develop strategies to mitigate their impact.
Enhancement of Capacity and Capabilities of all Stakeholders: It is of paramount importance to enhance the capacity and capabilities of relevant government agencies, civil society, academia, and other relevant segments, particularly through the provision of financial and technical assistance aimed at combating organised crime, corruption, and terrorism.
Opinion
Defeat of Terrorism and Triumph of Hypocrisy – another view
This is regarding the editorial of The Island on 19 May 2026, titled “Defeat of Terrorism- Triumph of hypocrisy”.
I fully agree with the Editor when he says that Terrorism needs to be eliminated in all its forms and manifestations. Terrorism is generally defined as “massacring innocents to achieve a political aim”. Whether the cause for terrorism is justifiable or not, terrorism per se, cannot be justified and thus, should be eliminated.
However, I have different views with the rest of the editorial.
The editor says what Rajapaksas did to the country was like saving a damsel in distress and abusing her thereafter. Elaborating the same, he says that Rajapaksas have thought leadership to defeat terrorism was a special license to do as they pleased and sought to politicise and monopolise war victory to accelerate their dynasty building projects. He continues to say that the post war Mahinda Rajapaksa (MR) admininstration became a government of Rajapaksas by the Rajapaksas and for Rajapaksas. In short, the implication was that MR, after defeating LTTE, has done nothing except furthering his and his family’s political interests.
MR, even during the critical period in the war against LTTE, handled the economy professionally. There was an upward trend in SL economy from 2005–2009 showing GDP growth from 24.4 billion dollars in 2005 to 42.5 billion dollars in 2009, doubling the 2005 GDP. During 2010–2015 showed Sri Lanka’s strongest economic performance with the economy growing from US $ 56.7 billion to US $ 80.6 billion.
The annual growth rate was over 7.4%, per capita income more than tripled (from US $ 1200 to over US $ 3,600) elevating SL to lower-middle income status. National poverty level declined significantly, dropping from over 15% in 2006 to below 7% by 2012. Unemployment declined to 4 %. Transport and energy sectors received a significant boost. Massive power generation projects such as Norochcholai coal power plant and Upper Kothmale Hydro power plant were completed.
The expansion of Colombo port, development of Hambantota port, Mattala International Airport and building of expressways (Southern and Colombo-Katunayake) greatly improved the country’s transportation capacity and brought SL clear to a goal of being a dynamic Maritime and Aviation Hub.
The above statistics of the Central Bank does not prove the fact that Rajapaksas only looked after their interests after the war. Hence the proverbial “Damsel” that the editor was referring to, was not abused as he claimed, but had been looked after very well.
Excesses may have happened and it happens everywhere in every field. But the fact remains that MR defeated the most ruthless terrorist organisation in the world and developed the country with roads, rails, ports, airports, expressways, bridges, power plants, stadiums etc. which deserves appreciation.
The editor then says MR suffered a humiliating electoral defeat in 2015, again came to power in 2019, but mismanaged the economy, indulged in corruption and bankrupted the country. That too is far from the truth.
The foreign exchange crisis that culminated in 2002 was not due to mismanagement /corruption of Gotabaya Rajapaksa (GR) government but mainly due to excessive foreign borrowings during 2015-2019. By 2019 Nov, the economy was already in a precarious state, with the IMF itself warning that SL was highly vulnerable to external shocks.
The editorial never mentions Covid 19, the worst global pandemic the GR government had to face. During this period the government revenue fell by approx. Rs 534 billion. (revenue lost from import restriction of motor vehicles, Covid lockdown and closure of liquor shops were Rs 136 billion, 323 billion and 75 billion respectively.) At the end of the MR regime in 2014, the outstanding ISBs were US $ 5.3 billion and the reserves were US $ 8.2 billion. By the time GR came to power, the outstanding ISBs were US $ 15.2 billion and the reserves were US $ 7.6 billion. In 2020-2021, the GR government did not issue any ISBs but settled them in time.
The decision to maintain debt servicing was not just about protecting the country’s image in financial markets but to ensure critical health and humanitarian support including vaccines, medicines, and essential supplies continued to flow into the country during the worst global health crisis in the country.
It’s a pity that the public who remained silent when foreign debt was piling up, launched an Aragalaya to expel the leader who settled the debts without obtaining fresh loans. Was it hypocrisy or treason?
The claim that the tax reduction implemented in Dec 2019 caused a significant loss of revenue was also not correct. When economic activity is deliberately halted by a global pandemic, with borders shut, businesses closed, citizens confined to their residences, production at the lowest, no tax rate high or low, can generate revenue from transactions that are simply not occurring.
The economic downfall was not due to mismanagement or corruption but due to the promulgation of bankruptcy (debt standstill) by Central Bank (CB) on the advice of former CB governor Dr. Indrajth Coomaraswamy and consultant Prof. Shantha Devaraja. That decision undermined the on-going efforts to stabilise the economy. I consider allowing such an announcement was a mistake done by GR. It halted IMF staff level already agreed loan, Indian Credit Line of US $ 3 billion and suspended WB and ADB loans. Also, China had to halt the loans already requested as China Secure (the government insurance company) could not insure loans to a bankrupt country.
The reserves were carefully used by GR to buy vaccines giving priority to human lives, and due to lack of foreign exchange, procurement of gas and fuel was critically effected. In the final stages there was an organised campaign by saboteurs to steal and hoard fuel. The JVP members publicly appealed to Sri Lankans abroad not to send any dollars to the country. A hate campaign was carried out against the Rajapaksas.
A protest called Aragalaya was held at Galle face. The entire episode was a grand conspiracy to oust GR, who was sworn in as the President at Ruwanwelisaya, the great symbol of Sinhalese Buddhist culture. Black Vesak lanterns, ridiculing Buddhist sacred symbols, insulting the Mahanayakas, anti-unitary slogans and glorifying federalism and free biriyani for the entire crowd by “unknown” sponsors were ample evidence of its hidden agenda.
Aragalaya, which forcibly took over the Presidential Secretariat, was obviously illegal. The other mistake done by GR was to allow protesters to operate without chasing them away using force if necessary. Finally, GR, the Commander in Chief of the three forces, left the country without hurting anyone.
The editor says that Rajapaksas squandered an opportunity that presented itself after the war to bring about national reconciliation and defeat LTTE ideology politically. He says reconciliation has become a victim of hypocrisy.
MR, after the war, launched a large number of development projects in the North constructing roads, bridges, grounds, schools, hospitals, etc. All the roads were carpeted. During the period 2010-2012 the growth rate in Jaffna was 22% compared to 7% in the rest of the country. That was the first step he took towards reconciliation.
Reconciliation needs an equal contribution from both sides. Unfortunately, the goodwill shown and the enormous economic support provided by MR were never reciprocated by the Tamil politicians. MR held PC elections (without abolishing 13A even with two-thirds majority in parliament) and allowed them to elect their own leaders. That was the second step towards reconciliation.
Mr. C. V. Vigneswaran studied at Royal college and Colombo Law College, became a Magistrate, High Court judge, a judge in the Court of Appeal and in the Supreme Court. Having lived among Sinhalese for more than 65 years, after being elected as the Chief Minister in the Northern Province, he declared that the Sinhalese had no right to live in Jaffna. Every year he returned most of the funds allocated for Northern development back to the Treasury without utilising it fully, to indicate that there was no support from the government. That was how Tamil politicians contributed towards reconciliation.
After 2009, hundreds of Tamil students in the North have become doctors, engineers, lawyers, top government officials, etc., due to unhindered education. The civilians who suffered under LTTE facing abductions, paying ransom, etc., now live in peace without any fear. Most of the Tamils have migrated to areas outside the North and the East. More than 52% of the Tamils are now living among Sinhalese without any problem. Main businesses in Colombo are dominated by the Tamils. What else is required Mr. Editor for the so-called reconciliation? Granting a separate state on a platter?
With all the above, the Tamils in the North annually commemorate the very person who made their lives miserable for 30 years. How would the Sinhalese feel when they see the terrorists who killed pregnant women, monks, infants, devotees being garlanded and felicitated in the North every year?
Yes, the editor was correct. Reconciliation has become a victim of hypocrisy.
Retired Rear admiral (Dr) Sarath Weerasekera VSV RWP USP
Former Public Security Minister
Opinion
IMF’s failure to tackle corruption in Sri Lanka
Anti-corruption and governance reforms are central pillars of Sri Lanka’s $2.9 billion bailout agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This was the first time in Asia that an IMF programme was explicitly linked to a comprehensive anti-corruption diagnostic and specific legislative measures.
At the press conference announcing the deal, Senior Mission Chief Peter Breuer said that the IMF had emphasised that anti-corruption and governance reforms are central pillars of the programme. He added that the IMF would subject Sri Lanka to a comprehensive governance diagnostic exercise, making it the first Asian economy to undergo such an exercise, which will assess corruption and governance vulnerabilities in Sri Lanka and provide prioritised and sequenced recommendations. “Sri Lanka will be the first country in Asia to undergo a governance diagnostic exercise by the IMF. We look forward to further engagement and collaboration with stakeholders and civil society organisations on this critical reform area,” the IMF official said.
An extract from the Technical Assistance Report on Governance Diagnostic Assessment, Sri Lanka (September 30, 2023) is as follows; “The report highlights immediate and short-term measures to address key corruption issues, as well as structural reforms that require more time and resources but are essential to strengthen governance and initiate lasting change. The recommendations are designed as a coherent approach to improving governance through a focus on: clarity of authority and responsibility for core functions; financial and operational independence of essential accountability and law enforcement institutions; transparency in government practices and performance, especially relating to the planning, spending, and accounting for the use of public funds and assets; inclusive, accessible, and rule-based means to enforce private agreements and challenge official behaviour; and efficient mechanisms for making information public and holding organisations and individuals to account for their performance and behaviour”.
Further, the agreement required Sri Lanka to implement several specific, actionable measures to curb corruption vulnerabilities:
New Anti-Corruption Legislation: The government passed the landmark Anti-Corruption Act in 2023, which expanded the powers of the Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery or Corruption (CIABOC), required electoral candidates and officials to declare their assets, and introduced protections for whistleblowers.
Fiscal and Procurement Reforms: The IMF programme included commitments to improve public financial management, increase tax transparency, and advance public procurement laws to eliminate political interference and cronyism in government contracts.
The IMF Executive Board is supposed to continuously track these anti-corruption and governance benchmarks during its periodic programme reviews to ensure compliance. The IMF officials’ last visit to Sri Lanka was from March 26th to April 9th when they reviewed the progress of the programme, decided that it was going well and approved the release of the final tranche. Their statement did not carry any reference to the activities of the government regarding control of corruption.
The Letter of Intent submitted by the government at the conclusion of the review becomes relevant under these circumstances. It was officially released on May 29, 2026. One of the critical undertakings by the government, according to the Letter of Intent, relates to cost-recovery pricing, the government has reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining cost-recovery pricing for fuel and electricity.
Going by available communications, apparently the IMF has not inquired into what caused the increase of cost of production of electricity. Cost of electricity production has gone up due to increased use of diesel, as low quality coal is not producing the required amounts. The coal that has been recently imported has been found to be of low quality and the government has said the losses due to this misadventure will not be shifted to the people. The irregularities in the coal procurement process that has happened recently is no secret, the Auditor General’s report has pointed out the flaws in the said procedure. Ironically, the IMF programme highlights the need to have fool proof procurement and tender procedures, and emphasises “holding organisations and individuals to account for their performance and behaviour” as the above quoted Technical Assistance Report mentions, yet it is silent on this matter showing its lack of responsibility. And it wants cost-recovery pricing for electricity! This may be taken as proof that the IMF is not very much concerned about the plight of the poor.
Further, these policies and recommendations of the IMF may substantiate the accusations made by left oriented organisations that the IMF insists on austerity measures, often at the expense of welfare expenditure, in order to serve neoliberalism. The clauses on corruption control in its agreement with the government appear to be mere lip service and window dressing. If no follow-up action is taken on these requirements, such clauses have no meaning and serve no useful purpose. If it is a responsible organisation, the IMF should have called for an impartial inquiry into the coal procurement procedure, for it is mandated to ensure transparency and integrity in these procedures. Moreover, if it is concerned about the welfare of the public it should not have asked for cost-recovery pricing of electricity when the reason for the increased cost could be corruption. Instead of going into the matter of corruption the IMF asks the government to recover the losses from the people. Cannot it think of a fairer means of recovering these losses instead of burdening the already impoverished people?
Thus, the question arises whether the IMF is a tool of imperialism. Many critics, particularly in the Global South, argue that the IMF functions as an instrument of financial imperialism or neo-colonialism. Structural Adjustment Programmes of the IMF ties its emergency loans to strict conditions like austerity, privatisation, and deregulation. Critics argue these demands dismantle local welfare systems, strip developing nations of their sovereignty, and open their markets to exploitation by multinational corporations. Further, the wealthy nations, particularly the United States and European powers, hold the majority of voting shares and effectively control the institution, dictating economic policy to weaker states. Critics claim that IMF-mandated currency devaluations artificially lower the cost of raw materials and natural resources in developing countries, benefiting wealthy creditor nations which amount to resource extraction.
Another matter of concern is that the interest rate for IMF loans to Sri Lanka, contrary to common belief that it is concessionary, is 5% which is pretty high and may be unbearable to a poor country like Sri Lanka. The country was in a woeful state in 2022 and was forced to declare bankruptcy, and seek IMF assistance. If we seriously examine the cause of this economic disaster, we will see that it was due to the economic policies the country had been following since independence. We import more than we export and take loans to meet the shortfall. This practice has gone on and on and is continued at present. No government, including the present one, despite its left leaning claims, had attempted to correct this colossal mistake. Our debt burden is frightening, less said about it the better.
The obvious solution to this problem would have been to achieve self-sufficiency in our essential needs, like food, and reduce reliance on imports. Most of our needs in food and other essentials could be locally produced. The IMF may not recommend such a course of action. It would want us to remain a poor country, struggling in the vicious cycle of import-export-debt quagmire.
by N. A. de S. Amaratunga
Opinion
When the decisive vote changes hands: Sri Lanka’s next electoral shift may already be underway
In the summer of 1789, as the French Revolution gathered momentum, delegates of the National Assembly assembled in Versailles to debate the future of France. The seating arrangement inside the chamber was not planned to shape political vocabulary for centuries to come. Yet it did. Those who favoured sweeping political change, greater equality, and the dismantling of inherited privilege gravitated to the left side of the hall. Those who defended the monarchy, established institutions, and traditional social hierarchies took their seats on the right. What began as a matter of convenience soon became a political metaphor. More than two centuries later, we still speak of the “left” and the “right” to describe competing visions of society.
Since then, the terms have evolved and acquired different meanings across countries and historical periods. Yet, the broad distinction remains remarkably durable. Ideologies associated with the left generally place greater emphasis on social, political, and economic equality, often advocating a more active role for the state in addressing disparities and expanding collective welfare. Ideologies associated with the right tend to place greater value on tradition, market mechanisms, authority, and various forms of social hierarchy, arguing that stability and prosperity emerge from preserving established institutions and incentives. Most political movements, of course, occupy positions somewhere between these poles, combining elements of both traditions in different proportions.
Few elections have altered the course of Sri Lankan politics as dramatically as the general election of 1977. Sweeping to power with an unprecedented five-sixths majority in Parliament, the United National Party ushered in a new political and economic era under the leadership of J. R. Jayewardene. He would later become the country’s first Executive President under a constitutional framework that vested extensive powers in the office. The changes that followed reflected a decisive move towards market-oriented reforms and a political outlook that leaned more to the right than anything Sri Lanka had previously experienced.
Yet even a political machine as formidable as the UNP’s could not hold power indefinitely. After nearly seventeen years of dominance, its grip on the electorate weakened. In 1994, the pendulum swung once again, bringing Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga. The victory was widely interpreted as a return to a more socially conscious and centre-left political vision.
What followed was not merely a change of government but the emergence of a recurring pattern in Sri Lankan political landscape. Since 1994, governments of varying compositions and personalities have risen to power with crucial support from parties and constituencies positioned on the left of the political spectrum. Whether through formal coalitions, strategic alliances, or ideological influence, the left has often provided the decisive electoral weight needed to secure victory. In many cases, without that support, the arithmetic of power would have looked very different.
Yet it is equally important to recognise what Sri Lanka has not become. Despite the enduring influence of left-wing thought, the country has never embraced an uncompromising far-left political project. Instead, successive governments have largely occupied a centre-left space, balancing market economics with welfare commitments, nationalism with social reform, and political pragmatism with egalitarian aspirations. The result has been a political landscape where power changes hands, parties rise and fall, and personalities dominate headlines, but the centre of gravity remains remarkably leftist. Sri Lanka’s electorate has repeatedly rewarded those who speak the language of social justice, even while stopping short of endorsing political extremes.
One possible explanation for this enduring centre-left tendency lies not in political parties themselves, but in the cultural formation of the electorate. For much of the period between the 1960s and the liberalisation of the economy in 1977–78, Russian literature occupied a prominent place in Sri Lanka’s reading culture. Affordable translations of the works of writers such as Tolstoy, Dostoevsky, Gorky, Chekhov and Pushkin circulated widely among students, teachers and ordinary readers. Alongside their literary value, these works exposed generations of Sri Lankans to questions of social justice, class inequality, collective responsibility and the moral obligations of society toward the vulnerable.
By the early 1990s, the generation that had grown up reading this literature had come of age politically. As they entered the electorate in larger numbers, they helped shape the contours of public opinion. Their voting preferences did not necessarily favour revolutionary socialism or radical left-wing politics. Rather, they appeared to support governments that combined commitments to welfare, social protection and egalitarian ideals with the practical realities of governing a developing nation. In this sense, the centre-left orientation that has characterised much of Sri Lanka’s political landscape since 1994 may owe as much to the country’s literary and intellectual culture as to the strategies of political parties themselves.
Yet there is an apparent paradox at the heart of this story. While successive governments often drew legitimacy from centre-left political ideals, their economic policies frequently moved in a different direction. Confronted by fiscal constraints, global economic pressures and shifting geopolitical realities, they operated within an international economic order largely shaped by market-oriented principles. Institutions such as the International Monetary Fund exerted considerable influence over economic policymaking, encouraging reforms associated more closely with liberalisation, fiscal discipline and market efficiency than with traditional left-wing economics.
It was thus a balancing act that defined Sri Lankan governance for decades after 1994: governments elected on promises of social justice and collective welfare, yet compelled to pursue economic strategies shaped by the imperatives of a global market economy. Politically, the country remained centre-left. Economically, it often travelled along a more market-oriented path.
Sri Lanka may have settled its political direction for the next few years, but the next truly decisive moment may arrive closer to 2030. By then, the composition of the electorate will have changed once again. A growing share of voters will belong to Generation Z and Generation Alpha, generations whose intellectual and cultural worlds differ markedly from those that came before them.
If the electorate that emerged in the 1990s was shaped, in part, by the values encountered in Russian literature and a reading culture that emphasised questions of social responsibility, collective welfare and inequality, the generations now entering political maturity have been formed by a different landscape altogether. Their influences are increasingly digital, global and instantaneous, are shaped more by algorithms and by social media feeds, content creators and transnational cultural currents. Many have grown up in a world where entrepreneurship, individual success, innovation and market-driven solutions occupy a far more visible place in public discourse.
This generational shift is unfolding alongside broader transformations in global politics. Across much of the world, including major powers such as the United Kingdom and the United States, contemporary political movements that emphasise markets, national interests, economic competitiveness, and stronger state authority have gained momentum. Whether these trends will find a lasting echo in Sri Lanka remains a question that deserves careful attention, not merely as an electoral matter, but as one intertwined with some of the defining challenges of our time.
Today, concerns of national sovereignty, security, strategic influence and even soft power are increasingly mediated through economic strength and market performance. Nations are judged not only by their political ideals but also by their ability to compete, innovate and secure their place within an interconnected global economy. Sri Lanka, still navigating the aftermath of economic crisis and charting its future development path, finds itself at the centre of these debates.
Against this backdrop, if the decisive vote is gradually passing from a generation shaped by the books that once filled the nation’s shelves to one shaped by the screens that now fill its hands, the question therefore does not simply become who will win the next election. It is whether the intellectual and cultural influences that shaped Sri Lanka’s centre-left political consensus can retain their hold on a new electorate formed by different experiences, different technologies, and different aspirations.
If every era is ultimately defined by the stories it tells itself, what story is the next generation of Sri Lankan voters already beginning to write? Will it move the centre of gravity towards a more market-oriented, centre-right vision? The answer may well determine not only the outcome of future elections, but the ideological direction of Sri Lanka itself.
By Viran Maddumage PhD (Reading), Macquarie University,
and Sanduni Rathnayake, AAL
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