Features
2024:Year of the Chinese Dragon and the Year of South Asian Elections
by Rajan Philips
2024 is the year of the dragon in Chinese zodiac system and is supposed augur well for those in power and authority. That might suit China’s strongman Xi Jinping just fine. The 12th anniversary of his becoming President falls in 2025, the year of snake, the same sign as for the year of his birth in 1953. Whether dialectics or astrology, Mr. Xi is going strong in spite of the country’s economic slips and social uncertainties at home. How well the dragon will play for those facing elections in 2024 will be determined not by the dragon or stars, but by the voters in the countries that will be holding elections in 2024. Four South Asian countries will be having elections in 2024.
The mother of all elections will be in November in the United States of America. The contest is widely expected to be between the oldest of them all – incumbent President, Joe Biden, and the most perversely tenacious of them all – Donald Trump, a former President and a defeated candidate. And the country will go through monthly rituals till November, involving primaries, conventions and finally the campaign. Adding to the list this year will be lawsuits and trials involving Trump. The Supreme Court will be in the thick of it all, and all nicely set up to be damned for what they do, and damned for what they don’t.
If President Wickremesinghe goes ahead with a March parliamentary, as we speculated earlier, then there would have been an election every month of the first four months in 2024, for four South Asian countries. Now, in Sri Lanka it is anticipated, the President willing, to have presidential election first, followed by parliamentary, both occurring in the last quarter or one of them spilling into 2025.
That leaves three South Asian countries having elections in the first four months – Bangladesh in January, Pakistan in February, and India in April-May. Sri Lanka is also the outlier and in a more important respect – the only country in South Asia to labour under a presidential system that is screwed atop a parliamentary system.
Bangladesh: Potemkin Election
The country will go to the polls a week into the New Year, on Sunday, January 7. The voters will directly elect 300 members of the Jatiya Sangsad (National Parliament), for a five year term, in a first-past-the-post voting system. An additional fifty members, all women, will be elected proportionately by the elected members of parliament. Bangladesh is a parliamentary democracy with a unicameral legislature that is still functioning under its first and only constitution adopted in 1972, one year after its liberation from its transcontinental rulers in Pakistan.
However, the Fourth Amendment to the Constitution enacted in January 1975, under the direction of the nation’s founding father Mujibur Rahuman himself, introduced a presidential form of government based on a one-party system, reduced the powers of parliament, and weakened judicial independence. That was the beginning of a whole era of political assassinations and military coups until constitutional order was restored 16 years later by the Twelfth Amendment enacted in 1991, which abolished the elected presidential system, reinstated the parliamentary system of government, and provided for parliament to elect the president as the constitutional head of state.
Another constitutional point to note is that the 1972 Constitution was founded on four fundamental principles – nationalism, socialism, democracy and secularism. The Eighth Amendment in 1988 established Islam as state religion. Twenty three years later in 2011, the 15th Amendment to the Constitution, restored secularism and freedom of religion as fundamental principles of the state, while retaining Islam as the state religion.
The president has power to dissolve parliament and appoints the prime minister from among the members of the Sangsad. The prime minister is head of government and head of the Council of Ministers (the cabinet), whose members are appointed by the President on the recommendations of the Prime Minister. The President also appoints the chief justice, other judges of the supreme court, and the chief election commissioner.
The current President is Mohammad Shahabuddin Chuppu, who was elected uncontested in February 2023. The Prime Minister is Sheikh Hasina, leader of the governing Awami League, and she has been in office since January 2009.
Ms. Hasina and the Awami League are certain to return to power with more than a comfortable majority in the election that Kallol Mustafa, a Bangladeshi engineer and writer, has called the “Potemkin election” – an election with all the paraphernalia, but without a real contest. That is because the main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) that has been in office multiple times is boycotting the election over the Awami League government’s rejection of the BNP demand that the election must be conducted under a neutral caretaker government.
The third major political party in Bangladesh, the Jatiya Party, which too has led governments in the past, is currently the opposition party in parliament but is too weak to take on the Awami juggernaut that has been in office for 14 years. In the outgoing parliament, Awami League had 304 out of the 350 MPs, while the Jatiya Party has 27 MPs. Ideologically, the League is to the left-of centre, BNP to the right-of-centre, and the Jatiya Party is more rightwing.
However, the Jatiya Party has been in governing alliances with both the League and the BNP. The BNP’s decision to boycott the election is counterproductive because it leaves the political field open to be monopolized by the governing party.
The electoral void is being filled by official candidates of the Awami League and “independents” planted by the government to create the pretense of a contest. Yet there is pre-election violence between the official candidates and independent pretenders. The violence has been bad enough to provoke an editorial criticism in The Daily Star, Bangladesh’s leading English daily. The paper’s concern is that the violent clashes among politicos will frighten voters to stay away from the polls.
The Star also carried a remarkable exposé of the Bangladeshi Minister of Lands, Saifuzzaman Chowdhury Javed, who apparently owns more than 260 properties in the UK worth about GBP 135 million, and most of them are in London. Mr. Javed is a three term MP, now running for the fourth time. The Star’s cartoon (reproduced on this page) is quite an attention grabber in the world of political money making.
Although the election is a foregone conclusion, the government is under scrutiny for good behaviour in the business of elections and in the area of human rights. The US has already (in May) announced visa restrictions targeting government officials, members of political parties, law enforcement officials, the judiciary, and security services, who are “believed to be responsible for, or complicit in, undermining the democratic election process in Bangladesh.” The US Ambassador Peter Haas is also reported to have had meetings with Bangladeshi Chief Election Commissioner Kazi Habibul Awal.
It is quite a turnaround for the US and Bangladesh from where they were in 1971. The US took the side of Pakistan and ignored the bloodbath that Bangladesh had to go through for its liberation. Few years later, the US Administration called Bangladesh an economic “basket case.” Not anymore. It is an emerging economic success story, the credit for which, as well as for steering Bangladesh away from religious extremism, belongs to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League government, despite their poor record on human rights, mass arrests and incarceration of political opponents, not to mention the holding of virtual one-party election.
Pakistan: the new basket case
A month after Bangladesh, on February 8, Pakistan will have its general elections to elect its 16th National Assembly. In Bangladesh the main opposition party is boycotting the election, while in Pakistan the government and the establishment are trying to keep their main rival Imran Khan indefinitely in jail to neutralize the electoral threat that he is posing them. In contrast, Nawaz Sharif who is leading the governing Pakistan Muslim League Party (PML (N) in his bid to become Prime Minister for a record fourth time, has been acquitted of all charges against him and is being given all the perks of a prime minister designate.
Against all the odds, Imran Khan will be contesting the election from prison for three seats in the National Assembly. The latest blow to Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insa (PTI) Party is from the heavily partisan Election Commission that is hell bent on denying the PTI the use of its ‘bat’ election symbol. The Peshawar High Court has overruled the Commission’s decision but the Commission might keep appealing the ruling to create uncertainty for the PTI and its supporters over its election symbol with just five weeks before the elections.
Recent opinion polls seem to indicate that the PTI still leads in voter intentions, but Nawaz Shariff is the military’s favoured candidate this time unlike in 2018 when the military backed Imran Khan against Nawaz Sharif. The third major political party is the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) founded by the late Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, the father of Benazir Bhutto. Her son Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the Foreign Minister in the outgoing PML government, now leads the PPP whose main electoral base is the Province of Sindh.
India apparently is hoping for a Nawaz victory as the former Prime Minister is seen as being friendly towards India unlike the rest of the establishment. He was opposed to the Kargil war of 1999 and paid the price of being ousted from office by Pervez Musharraf. It will be interesting to see how Mr. Sharif might be able ease the relationship with Delhi if he were to win the election. The Modi government and its handling of Kashmir is not making it easy for any Pakistani government to mend fences with India.
The US is being deafeningly silent on the Pakistani elections while threatening visa restrictions to Bangladeshis over their election. Silence on Pakistan has been the Biden Administration’s approach over the last three years.
And with Imran Khan accusing the US of involvement in his expulsion from parliament and the sacking of his government, there is no quick prospect for rapprochement between the two former Cold War allies.
For the people of Pakistan, the state of the economy and their own predicaments will be top of mind in the ballot booths. While Bangladesh is emerging as a successful economy, Pakistan has been in a free fall over several years. It would be poetic irony if someone in Washington were to call Pakistan a “basket case,” 50 years after disparaging Bangladesh.
Despite their violent separation, Pakistan and Bangladesh share similar constitutional experiences. Bangladesh was East Pakistan when Pakistan became independent with a parliamentary system of government. After the 1958 coup, and with the second constitution adopted in 1962, the country abolished the office of the prime minister and shifted to a presidential form of government.
Parliamentary system and the office of the Prime Minister were restored only after the separation of East Pakistan as Bangladesh, and under the 1973 Constitution championed by then Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto.
The president in Pakistan is now a constitutional head of government elected by an electoral college comprising the National Assembly, the Senate, and the four Provincial Assemblies.
Pakistan has a federal constitution with four federated provinces and a bicameral legislature. The National Assembly consists of 336 members, 266 of whom are directly elected under the first-past-the-post system. 60 seats are reserved for women and 10 for non-Muslim minorities, both of whom are elected by members of parliament in proportion to the number of MPs in each of the political parties represented in parliament. The Senate of Pakistan is the House of the Federation. It has 100 members, 92 of them elected by the four provincial legislatures, four to represent the Federal Capital and another four to represent Federally Administrated Tribal Areas.
After Pakistan, it will be India that will have its general election in April-May to elect its 18th Lok Sabha. Only in Sri Lanka, the President calls the shots when it comes to election timing. Like Bangladesh and Pakistan, Sri Lanka too shifted from a parliamentary system to a presidential system of government with a complicated proportional representation system to elect its unicameral legislature. But unlike in Bnagladesh and Pakistan, there was no military compulsion for the system change in Sri Lanka.
What is more, both Bangladesh and Pakistan have reverted to the parliamentary system and the simple first-past-the-post system for electing members of parliament with additional reserved seats for women. Their constitutional experience could be a source of hope for Sri Lanka, as the New Year dawns and the stage is set for the much anticipated national elections.
Features
Hanoi’s most popular street could kill you
Train Street started life as a razor-thin alley with a train rushing through it. Now, it’s swarmed with Instagrammable cafes and tourists who can’t stay away, despite the risks.
A train chugs through Hanoi, approaching a narrow passageway festooned with Chinese-style lanterns. Just as it screams into the station, a tourist jumps onto the tracks, attempting her most social-media friendly pose. Moments before the train strikes, its horn blaring into the humid air, she recoils to safety. Click, post.
It’s just an ordinary day on Hanoi’s Train Street, a 400m stretch of railway flanked by cafes where tourists nurse beers and watch, mesmerised, as trains roar past them at dangerously close proximity: sometimes crashing into tables and chairs.
Fun? Evidently – in a few short years, Train Street has entered Vietnam’s pantheon of “must-see” attractions, along with Ha Long Bay and the Cu Chi Tunnels. But the Vietnamese government is less impressed; since the site went viral in 2017, it has attempted various shutdowns, first in 2019, then 2022 and most recently further investigations and crackdowns in 2025 after an incident where a selfie-snapping tourist was nearly dragged under an oncoming train’s wheels. Police barricades go up between train arrivals; edicts are issued to tour operators and bar owners.
The tourists come anyway.

How did an ordinary street become one of Vietnam’s hottest tourist attractions? It started innocently enough.
The North-South Railway was built by colonialist French forces in 1902, connecting Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh City. Fifty-four years later, the General Department of Railway erected a series of squat buildings straddling a stretch in central Hanoi to house employees. By the 1970s, the area was considered a slum; residents regularly roused out of their sleep by trains rumbling through, their houses quaking.
“It was just an ordinary street with train tracks running through it,” said Minh Anh, a lifelong Hanoi local who works at local whisky distillery,
Alamy The Vietnamese government has attempted numerous shutdowns of the area (Credit: Alamy)Alamy
The Vietnamese government has attempted numerous shutdowns of the area (Credit: Alamy)
From ordinary to unmissable
How did an ordinary street become one of Vietnam’s hottest tourist attractions? It started innocently enough.
The North-South Railway was built by colonialist French forces in 1902, connecting Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh City. Fifty-four years later, the General Department of Railway erected a series of squat buildings straddling a stretch in central Hanoi to house employees. By the 1970s, the area was considered a slum; residents regularly roused out of their sleep by trains rumbling through, their houses quaking.
“It was just an ordinary street with train tracks running through it,” said Minh Anh, a lifelong Hanoi local who works at local whisky distillery, Về Để Đi’. “When it started popping up all over social media, I was honestly surprised.”
Nhi Nguyn, a tour guide for A Taste of Hanoi, used to walk tourists through, just before it exploded in popularity. “People were still living ordinary lives there back then and there weren’t so many cafes next to the tracks,” she said. “It had a much more authentic feel: scooters were locked up just meters from the tracks, laundered clothes hung outside, and people were cooking outside on small gas stoves.”
. “When it started popping up all over social media, I was honestly surprised.”
Nhi Nguyn, a tour guide for
Alamy The Vietnamese government has attempted numerous shutdowns of the area (Credit: Alamy)Alamy
The Vietnamese government has attempted numerous shutdowns of the area (Credit: Alamy)
From ordinary to unmissable
How did an ordinary street become one of Vietnam’s hottest tourist attractions? It started innocently enough.
The North-South Railway was built by colonialist French forces in 1902, connecting Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh City. Fifty-four years later, the General Department of Railway erected a series of squat buildings straddling a stretch in central Hanoi to house employees. By the 1970s, the area was considered a slum; residents regularly roused out of their sleep by trains rumbling through, their houses quaking.
“It was just an ordinary street with train tracks running through it,” said Minh Anh, a lifelong Hanoi local who works at local whisky distillery, Về Để Đi’. “When it started popping up all over social media, I was honestly surprised.”
Nhi Nguyn, a tour guide for A Taste of Hanoi, used to walk tourists through, just before it exploded in popularity. “People were still living ordinary lives there back then and there weren’t so many cafes next to the tracks,” she said. “It had a much more authentic feel: scooters were locked up just meters from the tracks, laundered clothes hung outside, and people were cooking outside on small gas stoves.”
, used to walk tourists through, just before it exploded in popularity. “People were still living ordinary lives there back then and there weren’t so many cafes next to the tracks,” she said. “It had a much more authentic feel: scooters were locked up just meters from the tracks, laundered clothes hung outside, and people were cooking outside on small gas stoves.”

In early 2013, Colm Pierce and Alex Sheal, co-founders of Hanoi-based photography tours Vietnam in Focus, launched a Hanoi on the Tracks tour to show visitors how local residents had adopted to the locomotive-sized challenge of living on railway tracks. Serendipitously, in June 2013, Instagram launched its new video-sharing feature. A year later, the Travel Channel show “Tough Trains” featured Pierce walking down Train Street with a camera crew, further enticing travellers.
In 2017, an enterprising resident started selling beer and coffee, inviting curious tourists to stay to watch the train go by. Neighbours noticed the economic opportunity and cafes and bars rapidly spread. Soon, the formerly derelict alley, now dubbed Phố Đường Tàu (literally: “Train Street”) became bedecked with colourful lanterns and Christmas lights. Visitors learned to time their arrival for 30 minutes before a scheduled train and the “classic” Train Street experience was cemented: upon entering the tracks, tourists were shepherded into rail-side bars by local merchants and plied with beers and coffee, until the train shrieked through, rattling plates and causing hearts to pound.
Julia Husum, a university student from Norway, visited Train Street in February 2026, and “loved” the experience. “We put our beer caps on the railway, and the train flattened it, creating souvenirs for us,” she said. “I’d go back again.”
Without the advent of social media, would Train Street have become popular? As a travel writer, I’ve witnessed dozens of would-be influencers’ death-defying acts, like scaling down a rocky cliff above Dubrovnik and standing atop the side wall of 14th-Century Charles Bridge in Prague; wistfully looking off into the distance as the camera flashes. I’ve come to conclude that Train Street is no different; here, too, visitors risk their own safety for a picture-perfect opportunity.

“Essentially social media has fuelled Train Street into what it is today, [where] tourists flock in droves to the area to feel the adrenaline of the passing train while sipping local coffee,” echoed Michael Stanbury, the creative director for Vietnam in Focus. “Even without the train, the Instagrammable decorated street holds a very Hanoian charm.”
Local debate; the government proposes halting passenger trains for good. And each attempted shutdown, tourists climb past the barricades. There are, to date, more than 100,000 posts tagging Train Street on Instagram. Men’s grooming blogger Adam Hurly visited because a friend had hyped it. “It felt more like an Instagram attraction rather than a neighbourhood street,” he admitted, noting that once the crowds arrive, it becomes congested and less enjoyable, “Especially if you’re just standing on the main sidewalk trying to get a picture.”
He added: “It’s one of those places that looks better in photos than it feels in reality.”
But Matthew Tran, an artisanal footwear designer who visits Hanoi regularly, loves the pull of Train Street.
“The coffees were absurdly overpriced, yet I paid for them every time because I couldn’t stop marvelling at how the place worked; how an entire economy could thrive in such an improbable space,” he said. “These vendors built something real out of something most people would call chaos – that, to me, is worth coming back for.”

He offers advice for future visitors: “It’s a unique experience you won’t get anywhere else. Although I wish more visitors would stop for a moment and remember that while it’s a tourist attraction to them, living beside those train tracks is someone else’s daily reality.”
Under more superficial reasons, visiting Train Street is similar to the appeal of visiting the Eiffel Tower during someone’s first visit to Paris, said Charlotte Russell, founder of The Travel Psychologist.
“Humans are a social species and if we perceive that other people are enjoying an experience, it is natural for us to want to do it too,” she said. “This goes back to our evolution, when we lived in small groups and it would be advantageous for us to emulate other people in this way. So the sense of fear of missing out that we experience when seeing other people visiting places like Train Street is part of being human.”
Bearix Stewart-Frommer, an American pre-med student, validates Russell’s theory: “I found out about Train Street from my mum,” she said. “I didn’t have some deep motivation to see it, but I was curious because it’s one of those quirky, very photogenic spots that people talk about on social media.”
But there may be a more deep-seated reason why we’re lured to such places, Russell notes: “With Train Street specifically, the risk element is part of what makes it so novel, especially those of us from countries like the UK… We are used to regulation and precaution, railings, barriers and painted lines that we must stand behind. In contrast, Train Street can feel unbelievable to see and experience… [it helps] us reflect on our own norms and realise that other perspectives do exist.”

Local tour guide Phuong Loan Ngo offers one such alternative perspective: “The economic boost is undeniable, giving families who live along Train Street financial opportunities,” she said. “On the other hand, there are cultural challenges too. When an area becomes a ‘spotlight’ for social media, a place’s historical and cultural heritage can get lost. Instead of learning about how this railway has functioned since the colonial era, people often leave with only a photo, missing the true soul of the neighbourhood.”
The irony is that Vietnam in Focus has now moved their photography tours to another, far-less trammelled part of the railway, so they can show visitors that old, track-side way of life.
“As with all good things, the popularity of Train Street and the crowds it attracts are spreading,” said Sheal. “Thankfully, we have scoured Hanoi and found a fantastic local market that runs along the Hanoian railway further out in the suburbs – a new attraction.”
That is, until the social-media-obsessed travel masses find out about it. For better or worse, the unbearable lightness of Train Street is a permanent, but moveable feast.
[BBC]
Features
An innocent bystander or a passive onlooker?
After nearly two decades of on-and-off negotiations that began in 2007, India and the European Union formally finally concluded a comprehensive free trade agreement on 27 January 2026. This agreement, the India–European Union Free Trade Agreement (IEUFTA), was hailed by political leaders from both sides as the “mother of all deals,” because it would create a massive economic partnership and greatly increase the current bilateral trade, which was over US$ 136 billion in 2024. The agreement still requires ratification by the European Parliament, approval by EU member states, and completion of domestic approval processes in India. Therefore, it is only likely to come into force by early 2027.
An Innocent Bystander
When negotiations for a Free Trade Agreement between India and the European Union were formally launched in June 2007, anticipating far-reaching consequences of such an agreement on other developing countries, the Commonwealth Secretariat, in London, requested the Centre for Analysis of Regional Integration at the University of Sussex to undertake a study on a possible implication of such an agreement on other low-income developing countries. Thus, a group of academics, led by Professor Alan Winters, undertook a study, and it was published by the Commonwealth Secretariat in 2009 (“Innocent Bystanders—Implications of the EU-India Free Trade Agreement for Excluded Countries”). The authors of the study had considered the impact of an EU–India Free Trade Agreement for the trade of excluded countries and had underlined, “The SAARC countries are, by a long way, the most vulnerable to negative impacts from the FTA. Their exports are more similar to India’s…. Bangladesh is most exposed in the EU market, followed by Pakistan and Sri Lanka.”
Trade Preferences and Export Growth
Normally, reduction of price through preferential market access leads to export growth and trade diversification. During the last 19-year period (2015–2024), SAARC countries enjoyed varying degrees of preferences, under the EU’s Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP). But, the level of preferential access extended to India, through the GSP (general) arrangement, only provided a limited amount of duty reduction as against other SAARC countries, which were eligible for duty-free access into the EU market for most of their exports, via their LDC status or GSP+ route.
However, having preferential market access to the EU is worthless if those preferences cannot be utilised. Sri Lanka’s preference utilisation rate, which specifies the ratio of eligible to preferential imports, is significantly below the average for the EU GSP receiving countries. It was only 59% in 2023 and 69% in 2024. Comparative percentages in 2024 were, for Bangladesh, 96%; Pakistan, 95%; and India, 88%.
As illustrated in the table above, between 2015 and 2024, the EU’s imports from SAARC countries had increased twofold, from US$ 63 billion in 2015 to US$ 129 billion by 2024. Most of this growth had come from India. The imports from Pakistan and Bangladesh also increased significantly. The increase of imports from Sri Lanka, when compared to other South Asian countries, was limited. Exports from other SAARC countries—Afghanistan, Bhutan, Nepal, and the Maldives—are very small and, therefore, not included in this analysis.
Why the EU – India FTA?
With the best export performance in the region, why does India need an FTA with the EU?
Because even with very impressive overall export growth, in certain areas, India has performed very poorly in the EU market due to tariff disadvantages. In addition to that, from January 2026, the EU has withdrawn GSP benefits from most of India’s industrial exports. The FTA clearly addresses these challenges, and India will improve her competitiveness significantly once the FTA becomes operational.
Then the question is, what will be its impact on those “innocent bystanders” in South Asia and, more particularly, on Sri Lanka?
To provide a reasonable answer to this question, one has to undertake an in-depth product-by-product analysis of all major exports. Due to time and resource constraints, for the purpose of this article, I took a brief look at Sri Lanka’s two largest exports to the EU, viz., the apparels and rubber-based products.
Fortunately, Sri Lanka’s exports of rubber products will be only nominally impacted by the FTA due to the low MFN duty rate. For example, solid tyres and rubber gloves are charged very low (around 3%) MFN duty and the exports of these products from Sri Lanka and India are eligible for 0% GSP duty at present. With an equal market access, Sri Lanka has done much better than India in the EU market. Sri Lanka is the largest exporter of solid tyres to the EU and during 2024 our exports were valued at US$180 million.
On the other hand, Tariffs MFN tariffs on Apparel at 12% are relatively high and play a big role in apparel sourcing. Even a small difference in landed cost can shift entire sourcing to another supplier country. Indian apparel exports to the EU faced relatively high duties (8.5% – 12%), while competitors, such as Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, are eligible for preferential access. In addition to that, Bangladesh enjoys highly favourable Rules of Origin in the EU market. The impact of these different trade rules, on the EU’s imports, is clearly visible in the trade data.
During the last 10 years (2015-2024), the EU’s apparel imports from Bangladesh nearly doubled, from US$15.1 billion, in 2015, to US$29.1 billion by 2024, and apparel imports from Pakistan more than doubled, from US$2.3 billion to US$5.5 billion. However, apparel imports from Sri Lanka increased only from US$1.3 billion in 2015 to US$2.2 billion by 2024. The impressive export growth from Pakistan and Bangladesh is mostly related to GSP preferences, while the lackluster growth of Sri Lankan exports was largely due to low preference utilisation. Nearly half of Sri Lanka’s apparel exports faced a 12% tariff due to strict Rules of Origin requirements to qualify for GSP.
During the same period, the EU’s apparel imports from India only showed very modest growth, from US$ 5.3 billion, in 2015, to US$ 6.3 billion in 2024. The main reason for this was the very significant tariff disadvantage India faced in the EU market. However, once the FTA eliminates this gap, apparel imports from India are expected to grow rapidly.
According to available information, Indian industry bodies expect US$ 5-7 billion growth of textiles and apparel exports during the first three years of the FTA. This will create a significant trade diversion, resulting in a decline in exports from China and other countries that do not enjoy preferential market access. As almost half of Sri Lanka’s apparel exports are not eligible for GSP, the impact on our exports will also be fierce. Even in the areas where Sri Lanka receives preferential duty-free access, the arrival of another large player will change the market dynamics greatly.
A Passive Onlooker?
Since the commencement of the negotiations on the EU–India FTA, Bangladesh and Pakistan have significantly enhanced the level of market access through proactive diplomatic interventions. As a result, they have substantially increased competitiveness and the market share within the EU. This would help them to minimize the adverse implications of the India–EU FTA on their exports. Sri Lanka’s exports to the EU market have not performed that well. The challenges in that market will intensify after 2027.
As we can clearly anticipate a significant adverse impact from the EU-India FTA, we should start to engage immediately with the European Commission on these issues without being passive onlookers. For example, the impact of the EU-India FTA should have been a main agenda item in the recently concluded joint commission meeting between the European Commission and Sri Lanka in Colombo.
Need of the Hour – Proactive Commercial Diplomacy
In the area of international trade, it is a time of turbulence. After the US Supreme Court judgement on President Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs,” the only prediction we can make about the market in the United States market is its continued unpredictability. India concluded an FTA with the UK last May and now the EU-India FTA. These are Sri Lanka’s largest markets. Now to navigate through these volatile, complex, and rapidly changing markets, we need to move away from reactive crisis management mode to anticipatory action. Hence, proactive commercial diplomacy is the need of the hour.
(The writer can be reached at senadhiragomi@gmail.com)
By Gomi Senadhira
Features
Educational reforms: A perspective
Dr. B.J.C. Perera (Dr. BJCP) in his article ‘The Education cross roads: Liberating Sri Lankan classroom and moving ahead’ asks the critical question that should be the bedrock of any attempt at education reform – ‘Do we truly and clearly understand how a human being learns? (The Island, 16.02.2026)
Dr. BJCP describes the foundation of a cognitive architecture taking place with over a million neural connections occurring in a second. This in fact is the result of language learning and not the process. How do we ‘actually’ learn and communicate with one another? Is a question that was originally asked by Galileo Galilei (1564 -1642) to which scientists have still not found a definitive answer. Naom Chomsky (1928-) one of the foremost intellectuals of our time, known as the father of modern linguistics; when once asked in an interview, if there was any ‘burning question’ in his life that he would have liked to find an answer for; commented that this was one of the questions to which he would have liked to find the answer. Apart from knowing that this communication takes place through language, little else is known about the subject. In this process of learning we learn in our mother tongue and it is estimated that almost 80% of our learning is completed by the time we are 5 years old. It is critical to grasp that this is the actual process of learning and not ‘knowledge’ which tends to get confused as ‘learning’. i.e. what have you learnt?
The term mother tongue is used here as many of us later on in life do learn other languages. However, there is a fundamental difference between these languages and one’s mother tongue; in that one learns the mother tongue- and how that happens is the ‘burning question’ as opposed to a second language which is taught. The fact that the mother tongue is also formally taught later on, does not distract from this thesis.
Almost all of us take the learning of a mother tongue for granted, as much as one would take standing and walking for granted. However, learning the mother tongue is a much more complex process. Every infant learns to stand and walk the same way, but every infant depending on where they are born (and brought up) will learn a different mother tongue. The words that are learnt are concepts that would be influenced by the prevalent culture, religion, beliefs, etc. in that environment of the child. Take for example the term father. In our culture (Sinhala/Buddhist) the father is an entity that belongs to himself as well as to us -the rest of the family. We refer to him as ape thaththa. In the English speaking (Judaeo-Christian) culture he is ‘my father’. ‘Our father’ is a very different concept. ‘Our father who art in heaven….
All over the world education is done in one’s mother tongue. The only exception to this, as far as I know, are the countries that have been colonised by the British. There is a vast amount of research that re-validates education /learning in the mother tongue. And more to the point, when it comes to the comparability of learning in one’s own mother tongue as opposed to learning in English, English fails miserably.
Education /learning is best done in one’s mother tongue.
This is a fact. not an opinion. Elegantly stated in the words of Prof. Tove Skutnabb-Kangas-“Mother tongue medium education is controversial, but ‘only’ politically. Research evidence about it is not controversial.”
The tragedy is that we are discussing this fundamental principle that is taken for granted in the rest of the world. It would not be not even considered worthy of a school debate in any other country. The irony of course is, that it is being done in English!
At school we learnt all of our subjects in Sinhala (or Tamil) right up to University entrance. Across the three streams of Maths, Bio and Commerce, be it applied or pure mathematics, physics, chemistry, zoology, botany economics, business, etc. Everything from the simplest to the most complicated concept was learnt in our mother tongue. An uninterrupted process of learning that started from infancy.
All of this changed at university. We had to learn something new that had a greater depth and width than anything we had encountered before in a language -except for a very select minority – we were not at all familiar with. There were students in my university intake that had put aside reading and writing, not even spoken English outside a classroom context. This I have been reliably informed is the prevalent situation in most of the SAARC countries.
The SAARC nations that comprise eight countries (Sri Lanka, Maldives, India, Pakistan Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan) have 21% of the world population confined to just 3% of the earth’s land mass making it probably one of the most densely populated areas in the world. One would assume that this degree of ‘clinical density’ would lead to a plethora of research publications. However, the reality is that for 25 years from 1996 to 2021 the contribution by the SAARC nations to peer reviewed research in the field of Orthopaedics and Sports medicine- my profession – was only 1.45%! Regardless of each country having different mother tongues and vastly differing socio-economic structures, the common denominator to all these countries is that medical education in each country is done in a foreign language (English).
The impact of not learning in one’s mother tongue can be illustrated at a global level. This can be easily seen when observing the research output of different countries. For example, if one looks at orthopaedics and sports medicine (once again my given profession for simplicity); Table 1. shows the cumulative research that has been published in peer review journals. Despite now having the highest population in the world, India comes in at number 16! It has been outranked by countries that have a population less than one of their states. Pundits might argue giving various reasons for this phenomenon. But the inconvertible fact remains that all other countries, other than India, learn medicine in their mother tongue.
(See Table 1) Mother tongue, medium of education in country rank order according to the volume of publications of orthopaedics and sports medicine in peer reviewed journals 1996 to 2024. Source: Scimago SCImago journal (https://www.scimagojr.com/) has collated peer review journal publications of the world. The publications are categorized into 27 categories. According to the available data from 1996 to 2024, China is ranked the second across all categories with India at the 6th position. China is first in chemical engineering, chemistry, computer science, decision sciences, energy, engineering, environmental science, material sciences, mathematics, physics and astronomy. There is no subject category that India is the first in the world. China ranks higher than India in all categories except dentistry.
The reason for this difference is obvious when one looks at how learning is done in China and India.
The Chinese learn in their mother tongue. From primary to undergraduate and postgraduate levels, it is all done in Chinese. Therefore, they have an enormous capacity to understand their subject matter just not itself, but also as to how it relates to all other subjects/ themes that surround it. It is a continuous process of learning that evolves from infancy onwards, that seamlessly passes through, primary, secondary, undergraduate and post graduate education, research, innovation, application etc. Their social language is their official language. The language they use at home is the language they use at their workplaces, clubs, research facilities and so on.
In India higher education/learning is done in a foreign language. Each state of India has its own mother tongue. Be it Hindi, Tamil, Urdu, Telagu, etc. Infancy, childhood and school education to varying degrees is carried out in each state according to their mother tongue. Then, when it comes to university education and especially the ‘science subjects’ it takes place in a foreign tongue- (English). English remains only as their ‘research’ language. All other social interactions are done in their mother tongue.
India and China have been used as examples to illustrate the point between learning in the mother tongue and a foreign tongue, as they are in population terms comparable countries. The unpalatable truth is that – though individuals might have a different grasp of English- as countries, the ability of SAARC countries to learn and understand a subject in a foreign language is inferior to the rest of the world that is learning the same subject in its mother tongue. Imagine the disadvantage we face at a global level, when our entire learning process across almost all disciplines has been in a foreign tongue with comparison to the rest of the world that has learnt all these disciplines in their mother tongue. And one by-product of this is the subsequent research, innovation that flows from this learning will also be inferior to the rest of the world.
All this only confirms what we already know. Learning is best done in one’s mother tongue! .
What needs to be realised is that there is a critical difference between ‘learning English’ and ‘learning in English’. The primary-or some may argue secondary- purpose of a university education is to learn a particular discipline, be it medicine, engineering, etc. The students- have been learning everything up to that point in Sinhala or Tamil. Learning their discipline in their mother tongue will be the easiest thing for them. The solution to this is to teach in Sinhala or Tamil, so it can be learnt in the most efficient manner. Not to lament that the university entrant’s English is poor and therefore we need to start teaching English earlier on.
We are surviving because at least up to the university level we are learning in the best possible way i.e. in our mother tongue. Can our methods be changed to be more efficient? definitely. If, however, one thinks that the answer to this efficient change in the learning process is to substitute English for the mother tongue, it will defeat the very purpose it is trying to overcome. According to Dr. BJCP as he states in his article; the current reforms of 2026 for the learning process for the primary years, centre on the ‘ABCDE’ framework: Attendance, Belongingness, Cleanliness, Discipline and English. Very briefly, as can be seen from the above discussion, if this is the framework that is to be instituted, we should modify it to ABCDEF by adding a F for Failure, for completeness!
(See Figure 1) The components and evolution of learning: Data, information, knowledge, insight, wisdom, foresight As can be seen from figure 1. data and information remain as discrete points. They do not have interconnections between them. It is these subsequent interconnections that constitute learning. And these happen best through the mother tongue. Once again, this is a fact. Not an opinion. We -all countries- need to learn a second language (foreign tongue) in order to gather information and data from the rest of the world. However, once this data/ information is gathered, the learning needs to happen in our own mother tongue.
Without a doubt English is the most universally spoken language. It is estimated that almost a quarter of the world speaks English as its mother tongue or as a second language. I am not advocating to stop teaching English. Please, teach English as a second language to give a window to the rest of the world. Just do not use it as the mode of learning. Learn English but do not learn in English. All that we will be achieving by learning in English, is to create a nation of professionals that neither know English well nor their subject matter well.
If we are to have any worthwhile educational reforms this should be the starting pivotal point. An education that takes place in one’s mother tongue. Not instituting this and discussing theories of education and learning and proposing reforms, is akin to ‘rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic’. Sadly, this is not some stupendous, revolutionary insight into education /learning. It is what the rest of the world has been doing and what we did till we came under British rule.
Those who were with me in the medical faculty may remember that I asked this question then: Why can’t we be taught in Sinhala? Today, with AI, this should be much easier than what it was 40 years ago.
The editorial of this newspaper has many a time criticised the present government for its lackadaisical attitude towards bringing in the promised ‘system change’. Do this––make mother tongue the medium of education /learning––and the entire system will change.
by Dr. Sumedha S. Amarasekara
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