News
Verite shows how Lanka can achieve sustainable debt dynamics
Verité Research, a private think tank that provides strategic analysis for Asia, hosted the online discussion Steering out of the Debt Crisis: Recipe for Budget 2022 on Oct 14. The event was anchored around addressing Sri Lanka’s debt and USD liquidity crisis, and featured presentations by Executive Director, Nishan de Mel, Research Director, Deshal de Mel, and Analyst Anushan Kapilan. An expert panel included Dr. Shantayanan Devaranjan (Georgetown University), Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe (former Senior Deputy Governor – CBSL) and Dr. Mick Moore (Institute of Development Studies – UK).
A press release issued by the think tank said: Verité Research presented analysis pertaining to debt management and fiscal measures, including specific proposals to increase government revenue and improve the allocation of expenditure.
The Verité Research analysis showed that Sri Lanka can achieve sustainable debt dynamics by meeting two conditions with regard to its domestic debt, and two further conditions with regard to its foreign debt. The presentation explained that, despite some challenges, achieving these conditions was feasible for Sri Lanka – provided policy-makers choose to do so.
The main challenges arise from poorly formulated fiscal/budget measures, coupled with the pandemic-induced setbacks which have resulted in successive downgrades of Sri Lanka’s credit ratings. As a result, Sri Lanka has been locked out of global capital markets, and rapidly depleted its foreign reserves, as it has continued to pay back foreign bondholders, at the expense of negative feedback on the local economy.
The Verité Research analysis showed that the worst is yet to come. Sri Lanka’s foreign reserve would be completely depleted by the end of 2022 if no surprise inflows materialise, and even if they did, the crisis would simply re-emerge in 2023. This means that even if Sri Lanka can claim to be technically solvent, it does not have the liquidity to sustainably pay back its foreign debt until the country credit rating is improved by at least two notches.
The current path of repaying debt offers a high return to bondholders at the expense of huge pain to domestic businesses and consumers, and makes the credit rating outlook even more precarious. The solution is to share the pain with bondholders by pre-emptively restructuring the debt. This can improve the foreign reserve position more quickly, and thereby improve the country’s credit rating more quickly as well. This alternative path is less painful to the local economy, offers a faster recovery, with a higher probability of success. It is a better path for the Sri Lankan economy than repaying foreign bondholders in full, even if it were able to do so.
A clear distinction needs to be made between a forced restructuring which would occur if a country were to default in a disorderly way without negotiating with creditors, and an orderly pre-emptive restructuring of debt following negotiations with creditors. The sooner Sri Lanka moves to an orderly pre-emptive debt restructure, the easier it would be to do so, and the more favourable it would be for the Sri Lankan economy. Delaying the decision is damaging and can result in outcomes that are highly disruptive.
Currently the primary deficit is at 7.4% of GDP. At the current GDP growth rate of a little under 4% (predicted by Verité Research), it is necessary to reduce the primary deficit to around 2% of GDP or less to help stabilise the debt.
The Verité Research analysis showed that in the base case scenario with no policy changes, the debt to GDP Ratio would increase to 123.08% by 2025, however with prudent fiscal measures it can be kept down to 108.8% by 2025.
The fiscal measures proposed included the reduction of the personal income threshold to LKR 1 Mn per Annum; the reintroduction of PAYE with a threshold of LKR 1.5Mn; reintroduction of WHT on interest income; increasing the VAT rate to 10% in 2022 and to 12% in 2023; reducing the VAT free thresholds from LKR 300 Mn to LKR 150 Mn in 2022; simplifying the corporate tax regime to a three-tier regime; and increasing the total taxes on cigarettes and alcohol in line with increases in inflation and GDP according to a tobacco taxation formula introduced in the 2019 budget.
The Government’s ‘Rebuilding Sri Lanka’ Fund, established to provide relief and support to communities affected by Cyclone Ditwah, continues to receive financial contributions on a daily basis.
Accordingly, the Containers Transport Owners Association made a financial contribution of Rs. 1.5 million, while the Association of SriLankan Airlines Licensed Aircraft Engineers contributed Rs. 1.35 million to the Fund.
The respective cheques were formally presented to the Secretary to the President, Dr. Nandika Sanath Kumanayake, at the Presidential Secretariat on Friday (19).
The occasion was attended by W. M. S. K. Manjula, Chairman of the Containers Transport Owners Association, together with Dilip Nihal Anslem Perera and Jayantha Karunadhipathi.
Representing the Association of SriLankan Airlines Licensed Aircraft Engineers were Deshan Rajapaksa, Samudika Perera and Devshan Rodrigo handed over the cheque.
A meeting between Prime Minister Dr. Harini Amarasuriya and a delegation of UNICEF representatives was held on Saturday, (December 20) at the Prime Minister’s Office.
During the meeting, the Prime Minister explained the measures taken by the Government to ensure the protection of the affected student community and to restore the damaged school system, as well as the challenges encountered in this process.
The Prime Minister stated that reopening schools located in landslide-prone areas would be extremely dangerous. Accordingly, the Government is focusing on identifying such schools and relocating them to suitable locations based on scientific assessments.
The Prime Minister further noted that financial assistance has been provided to students affected by the disaster, enabling parents to send their children back to school without an additional financial burden. Emphasizing that school is the safest place for children after their homes, the Prime Minister expressed confidence that the school environment would help restore and improve students’ mental well-being
The Prime Minister also highlighted that attention has been given to several key areas, including the relocation of disaster-affected schools, restoration of school infrastructure, merging and operating certain schools jointly, facilitating teaching and learning through digital and technological strategies, and providing special transportation facilities. She emphasized that the Government is examining these issues and is committed to finding long-term solutions.
The UNICEF representatives commended the Government’s commitment and the initiatives undertaken to restore the education sector and assured their support to the Government. Both parties also discussed working together collaboratively on future initiatives.
The meeting was attended by the UNICEF representatives to Sri Lanka Emma Brigham, Lakshmi Sureshkumar, Nishantha Subash, and Yashinka Jayasinghe, along with Secretary to the Ministry of Education Nalaka Kaluwewa, Director of Education Dakshina Kasturiarachchi, Deputy Directors Kasun Gunarathne and Udara Dikkumbura.
(Prime Minister’s Media Division)
Drug controversy:
“Setting up state-of-the-art drug testing facility will cost Rs 5 billion”
Activists call for legal action against politicians, bureaucrats
Serious questions have been raised over Sri Lanka’s drug regulatory system following revelations that the National Medicines Regulatory Authority’s (NMRA) quality control laboratory is not accredited by the Sri Lanka Accreditation Board (SLAB), casting doubt on both the reliability of local test results and the adequacy of oversight of imported medicines.
Medical and civil rights groups warn that the issue points to a systemic regulatory failure rather than an isolated lapse, with potential political and financial consequences for the State.
Chairman of the Federation of Medical and Civil Rights Professional Associations, Specialist Dr. Chamal Sanjeewa, said the controversy surrounding the Ondansetron injection, which was later found to be contaminated, had exposed deep weaknesses in drug regulation and quality assurance.
Dr. Sanjeewa said that the manufacturer had confirmed that the drug had been imported into Sri Lanka on four occasions this year, despite later being temporarily withdrawn from use. The drug was manufactured in India in November 2024 and in May and August 2025, and imported to Sri Lanka in February, July and September. On each occasion, 67,600 phials were procured.
Dr. Sanjeewa said the company had informed the NMRA that the drug was tested in Indian laboratories, prior to shipment, and passed all required quality checks. The manufacturer reportedly tested the injections against 10 parameters, including basic quality standards,
pH value, visual appearance, component composition, quantity per phial, sterility levels, presence of other substances, bacterial toxin levels and spectral variations.
According to documents submitted to the NMRA, no bacterial toxins were detected in the original samples, and the reported toxin levels were within European safety limits of less than 9.9 international units per milligram.
Dr. Sanjeewa said the credibility of local regulatory oversight had come under scrutiny, noting that the NMRA’s quality control laboratory was not SLAB-accredited. He said establishing a fully equipped, internationally accredited laboratory would cost nearly Rs. 5 billion.
He warned that the failure to invest in such a facility could have grave consequences, including continued loss of life due to substandard medicines and the inability of the State to recover large sums of public funds paid to pharmaceutical companies for defective drugs.
“If urgent steps are not taken, public money will continue to be lost and accountability will remain elusive,” Dr. Sanjeewa said.
He added that if it was ultimately confirmed that the drug did not contain bacterial toxins at the time it entered Sri Lanka, the fallout would be even more damaging, severely undermining the credibility of the country’s health system and exposing weaknesses in health administration.
Dr. Sanjeewa said public trust in the health sector had already been eroded and called for legal action against all politicians and public officials responsible for regulatory failures linked to the incident.
by Chaminda Silva ✍️
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