Connect with us

News

Verite shows how Lanka can achieve sustainable debt dynamics

Published

on

Verité Research, a private think tank that provides strategic analysis for Asia, hosted the online discussion Steering out of the Debt Crisis: Recipe for Budget 2022 on Oct 14. The event was anchored around addressing Sri Lanka’s debt and USD liquidity crisis, and featured presentations by Executive Director, Nishan de Mel, Research Director, Deshal de Mel, and Analyst Anushan Kapilan. An expert panel included Dr. Shantayanan Devaranjan (Georgetown University), Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe (former Senior Deputy Governor – CBSL) and Dr. Mick Moore (Institute of Development Studies – UK).

A press release issued by the think tank said: Verité Research presented analysis pertaining to debt management and fiscal measures, including specific proposals to increase government revenue and improve the allocation of expenditure.

The Verité Research analysis showed that Sri Lanka can achieve sustainable debt dynamics by meeting two conditions with regard to its domestic debt, and two further conditions with regard to its foreign debt. The presentation explained that, despite some challenges, achieving these conditions was feasible for Sri Lanka – provided policy-makers choose to do so.

The main challenges arise from poorly formulated fiscal/budget measures, coupled with the pandemic-induced setbacks which have resulted in successive downgrades of Sri Lanka’s credit ratings. As a result, Sri Lanka has been locked out of global capital markets, and rapidly depleted its foreign reserves, as it has continued to pay back foreign bondholders, at the expense of negative feedback on the local economy.

The Verité Research analysis showed that the worst is yet to come. Sri Lanka’s foreign reserve would be completely depleted by the end of 2022 if no surprise inflows materialise, and even if they did, the crisis would simply re-emerge in 2023. This means that even if Sri Lanka can claim to be technically solvent, it does not have the liquidity to sustainably pay back its foreign debt until the country credit rating is improved by at least two notches.

The current path of repaying debt offers a high return to bondholders at the expense of huge pain to domestic businesses and consumers, and makes the credit rating outlook even more precarious. The solution is to share the pain with bondholders by pre-emptively restructuring the debt. This can improve the foreign reserve position more quickly, and thereby improve the country’s credit rating more quickly as well. This alternative path is less painful to the local economy, offers a faster recovery, with a higher probability of success. It is a better path for the Sri Lankan economy than repaying foreign bondholders in full, even if it were able to do so.

A clear distinction needs to be made between a forced restructuring which would occur if a country were to default in a disorderly way without negotiating with creditors, and an orderly pre-emptive restructuring of debt following negotiations with creditors. The sooner Sri Lanka moves to an orderly pre-emptive debt restructure, the easier it would be to do so, and the more favourable it would be for the Sri Lankan economy. Delaying the decision is damaging and can result in outcomes that are highly disruptive.

Currently the primary deficit is at 7.4% of GDP. At the current GDP growth rate of a little under 4% (predicted by Verité Research), it is necessary to reduce the primary deficit to around 2% of GDP or less to help stabilise the debt.

The Verité Research analysis showed that in the base case scenario with no policy changes, the debt to GDP Ratio would increase to 123.08% by 2025, however with prudent fiscal measures it can be kept down to 108.8% by 2025.

The fiscal measures proposed included the reduction of the personal income threshold to LKR 1 Mn per Annum; the reintroduction of PAYE with a threshold of LKR 1.5Mn; reintroduction of WHT on interest income; increasing the VAT rate to 10% in 2022 and to 12% in 2023; reducing the VAT free thresholds from LKR 300 Mn to LKR 150 Mn in 2022; simplifying the corporate tax regime to a three-tier regime; and increasing the total taxes on cigarettes and alcohol in line with increases in inflation and GDP according to a tobacco taxation formula introduced in the 2019 budget.



Continue Reading
Advertisement
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Latest News

“Let’s move forward together in unity to build a country where all labour is valued, rights are protected, and equality prevails” -PM

Published

on

By

Prime Minister Dr Harini   Amarasuriya in her May Day message called upon the working people in Sri Lanka to move forward together in unity to build a country where all labour is valued, rights are protected, and equality prevails.

The full text of the PM’s message:

The history of the Sri Lankan labour movement is a remarkable journey, shaped over decades by the blood, sweat, and sacrifices made in the pursuit of rights, justice, and dignity.

Beginning with the printers’ strike of 1893, the working people of this country emerged as an organised force. Through the trade union movement led by A. E. Goonesinha and the emergence of the Lanka Sama Samaja Party, the voice of labour gained political strength. The Railway Workers’ Strike of 1923 and the public service strike of 1947 reaffirmed that the true ’driving force’ behind the country’s economic and social transformation was its working people. I respectfully acknowledge the invaluable contributions of workers in the plantation sector, ports, railways, and across both the public and private sectors, whose dedication laid the foundation for many of the labour rights we benefit from today.

As we commemorate International Workers’ Day with dignity once again, we pay tribute to all working people across the world, including the heroic workers who sacrificed their lives in the struggle for an eight-hour workday in Chicago in 1886. This year’s May Day holds special significance as it is being celebrated under a government built through the power of the people, in honour of the entire working community of Sri Lanka.

Granting due respect to labour and safeguarding the rights of all working people are core policy commitments of our government. Accordingly, we remain dedicated to creating a fair and safe working environment by expanding existing services and implementing new programmes aimed at improving the living standards of working people.

Ensuring fair and equal access for all citizens is a fundamental objective of the government. Following that, it is our responsibility to create an environment in which everyone can lead a dignified professional life. Establishing a national social protection system that recognises unpaid labour and guarantees social security for unpaid labours is among the foremost priorities of our government.

On this May Day, we must reaffirm the importance of moving forward together in unity to build a country where all labour is valued, rights are protected, and equality prevails. With the strength and dedication of all working people, may we soon achieve the vision we all share: “A Thriving Nation – A Beautiful Life

Continue Reading

Latest News

Heat Index at Caution Level at some places in the Northern, North-central, Eastern, Sabaragamuwa and North-western provinces and in Monaragala district during the day time

Published

on

By

Warm Weather Advisory
Issued by the Natural Hazards Early Warning Centre
Issued at 3.30 p.m. on 30 April 2026, valid for 01 May 2026.

The Heat index, the temperature felt on human body is likely to increase up to ‘Caution level’ at some places in the Northern, North-central, Eastern, Sabaragamuwa, and  North-western provinces and in Monaragala district during the day time.

The Heat Index Forecast is calculated by using relative humidity and maximum temperature and this is the condition that is felt on your body. This is not the forecast of maximum temperature. It is generated by the Department of Meteorology for the next day period and prepared by using global numerical weather prediction model data.


Effect of the heat index on human body is mentioned in the above table and it is prepared on the advice of the Ministry of Health and Indigenous Medical Services.

ACTION REQUIRED
Job sites: Stay hydrated and takes breaks in the shade as often as possible.
Indoors: Check up on the elderly and the sick.
Vehicles: Never leave children unattended.
Outdoors: Limit strenuous outdoor activities, find shade and stay hydrated.
Dress: Wear lightweight and white or light-colored clothing.

Note:
In addition, please refer to advisories issued by the Disaster Preparedness & Response Division, Ministry of Health in this regard as well. For further clarifications please contact 011-7446491.

Continue Reading

News

USD 2.5 mn fraud probe: Interdicted MoF official found dead at home

Published

on

An Assistant Director of the External Resources Department (ERD) of the Ministry of Finance, interdicted pending an investigation into the diversion of US$2.5 million in Treasury funds to a rogue account was found dead at his residence in Kuliyapitiya.

The deceased has been identified as Ranga Nishantha, 50.

Police said the officer had been found in the garden of his house and they believed that the officila had committed suicide. However, investigators have not ruled out other possibilities, and inquiries are continuing.

The official was interdicted along with three other senior Finance Ministry officials over a cyber-enabled financial fraud.

Those interdicted include a Director and an Assistant Director from the ERD, as well as a Director and an Additional Director General from the Public Debt Management Office (PDMO).

Police sources said that the CID had on two occasions asked Nishantha to make a statement in connection with the ongoing investigation, but he had failed to comply.

Police said the CID probe into the alleged cyber fraud is continuing, with investigators examining the circumstances surrounding the diversion of funds through compromised communication channels.Kuliyapitiya Police said further investigations were underway to establish the exact cause of death.

Continue Reading

Trending