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Verite shows how Lanka can achieve sustainable debt dynamics

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Verité Research, a private think tank that provides strategic analysis for Asia, hosted the online discussion Steering out of the Debt Crisis: Recipe for Budget 2022 on Oct 14. The event was anchored around addressing Sri Lanka’s debt and USD liquidity crisis, and featured presentations by Executive Director, Nishan de Mel, Research Director, Deshal de Mel, and Analyst Anushan Kapilan. An expert panel included Dr. Shantayanan Devaranjan (Georgetown University), Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe (former Senior Deputy Governor – CBSL) and Dr. Mick Moore (Institute of Development Studies – UK).

A press release issued by the think tank said: Verité Research presented analysis pertaining to debt management and fiscal measures, including specific proposals to increase government revenue and improve the allocation of expenditure.

The Verité Research analysis showed that Sri Lanka can achieve sustainable debt dynamics by meeting two conditions with regard to its domestic debt, and two further conditions with regard to its foreign debt. The presentation explained that, despite some challenges, achieving these conditions was feasible for Sri Lanka – provided policy-makers choose to do so.

The main challenges arise from poorly formulated fiscal/budget measures, coupled with the pandemic-induced setbacks which have resulted in successive downgrades of Sri Lanka’s credit ratings. As a result, Sri Lanka has been locked out of global capital markets, and rapidly depleted its foreign reserves, as it has continued to pay back foreign bondholders, at the expense of negative feedback on the local economy.

The Verité Research analysis showed that the worst is yet to come. Sri Lanka’s foreign reserve would be completely depleted by the end of 2022 if no surprise inflows materialise, and even if they did, the crisis would simply re-emerge in 2023. This means that even if Sri Lanka can claim to be technically solvent, it does not have the liquidity to sustainably pay back its foreign debt until the country credit rating is improved by at least two notches.

The current path of repaying debt offers a high return to bondholders at the expense of huge pain to domestic businesses and consumers, and makes the credit rating outlook even more precarious. The solution is to share the pain with bondholders by pre-emptively restructuring the debt. This can improve the foreign reserve position more quickly, and thereby improve the country’s credit rating more quickly as well. This alternative path is less painful to the local economy, offers a faster recovery, with a higher probability of success. It is a better path for the Sri Lankan economy than repaying foreign bondholders in full, even if it were able to do so.

A clear distinction needs to be made between a forced restructuring which would occur if a country were to default in a disorderly way without negotiating with creditors, and an orderly pre-emptive restructuring of debt following negotiations with creditors. The sooner Sri Lanka moves to an orderly pre-emptive debt restructure, the easier it would be to do so, and the more favourable it would be for the Sri Lankan economy. Delaying the decision is damaging and can result in outcomes that are highly disruptive.

Currently the primary deficit is at 7.4% of GDP. At the current GDP growth rate of a little under 4% (predicted by Verité Research), it is necessary to reduce the primary deficit to around 2% of GDP or less to help stabilise the debt.

The Verité Research analysis showed that in the base case scenario with no policy changes, the debt to GDP Ratio would increase to 123.08% by 2025, however with prudent fiscal measures it can be kept down to 108.8% by 2025.

The fiscal measures proposed included the reduction of the personal income threshold to LKR 1 Mn per Annum; the reintroduction of PAYE with a threshold of LKR 1.5Mn; reintroduction of WHT on interest income; increasing the VAT rate to 10% in 2022 and to 12% in 2023; reducing the VAT free thresholds from LKR 300 Mn to LKR 150 Mn in 2022; simplifying the corporate tax regime to a three-tier regime; and increasing the total taxes on cigarettes and alcohol in line with increases in inflation and GDP according to a tobacco taxation formula introduced in the 2019 budget.



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President holds virtual discussion with USAID Administrator on future cooperation

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President Anura Kumara Dissanayake conducted a virtual discussion on Friday (11) with the Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Ms Samantha Power. During the meeting, the they exchanged views on matters of mutual interest and explored avenues for future cooperation.

Notably, Ms. Samantha Power,  stated that USAID is willing to support the government aligning with the manifesto presented to the people.

She also assured President Dissanayake that USAID is prepared to support Sri Lanka in any way needed. This commitment reflects a shared vision for enhancing development and cooperation with the USAID agency

[PMD]

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UN taking necessary steps to ensure safety of Sri Lankan peacekeepers in Lebanon

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By Rathindra Kuruwita

The Sri Lankan Army was in touch with the UN about ensuring the safety of the 125 Sri Lankan peacekeepers stationed in South Lebanon, Director of Media, Major General Nilantha Premaratne told The Island yesterday (11).Premaratne confirmed that two Sri Lankan peacekeepers in Southern Lebanon had sustained minor injuries during an Israeli strike.

He said the peacekeepers had been wounded at Naqoura in Southern Lebanon, and that they were being treated at the hospital at the UN base.

Major General Premaratne said the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) had been headquartered in Naqoura since 1978.

He said they are in touch with the UN and were taking necessary steps to ensure the safety of other Sri Lankan peacekeepers in Lebanon.

“According to our officers, there were Israeli air, tank and artillery attacks. The UN has taken all possible precautions to ensure the safety of its peacekeepers. The UN is taking care of the injured peacekeepers and I don’t think their injuries are bad enough to warrant a repatriation,” he said.

There are 11 officers and 114 other ranks as peacekeepers in Southern Lebanon, he said.

UNIFIL issued the following press release on the incident: “Recent escalation along the Blue Line is causing widespread destruction of towns and villages in south Lebanon, while rockets continue to be launched towards Israel, including civilian areas. In the past days, we have seen incursions from Israel into Lebanon in Naqoura and other areas. Israel Defense Forces (IDF) soldiers have clashed with Hizbullah elements on the ground in Lebanon.

“UNIFIL’s Naqoura headquarters and nearby positions have been repeatedly hit.

“This morning (10 October), two peacekeepers were injured after an IDF Merkava tank fired its weapon toward an observation tower at UNIFIL’s headquarters in Naqoura, directly hitting it and causing them to fall. The injuries are fortunately, this time, not serious, but they remain in hospital.

“IDF soldiers also fired on UN position (UNP) 1-31 in Labbouneh, hitting the entrance to the bunker where peacekeepers were sheltering, and damaging vehicles and a communications system. An IDF drone was observed flying inside the UN position up to the bunker entrance.

“On 9 October, IDF soldiers deliberately fired at and disabled the position’s perimeter-monitoring cameras. They also deliberately fired on UNP 1-32A in Ras Naqoura, where regular Tripartite meetings were held before the conflict began, damaging lighting and a relay station.

“We remind the IDF and all actors of their obligations to ensure the safety and security of UN personnel and property and to respect the inviolability of UN premises at all times. UNIFIL peacekeepers are present in south Lebanon to support a return to stability under Security Council mandate. Any deliberate attack on peacekeepers is a grave violation of international humanitarian law and of Security Council resolution 1701.

We are following up with the IDF on these matters.”

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CB says country still not out of the woods

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The overall stabilisation and gradual improvement of domestic macrofinancial conditions eased the pressure on balance sheets of households and institutions to some extent and thereby lessened the risks faced by the financial sector in the first half of 2024, the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) said on Friday (11) in a statement.

Credit growth entered the positive territory, albeit lagging behind the pace of deposit growth, the CBSL said.

It said the decline in market interest rates with the accommodative monetary policy stance along with falling inflation and lower risk premia, resulted in a partial correction of interest rate anomalies, which in turn supported the gradual uptick in credit, he said.

Moreover, the tilt in financial sector exposure towards the public sector also showed signs of correction, indicating an improvement in the allocation of financial resources towards the private sector, the CBSL said.

The Central Bank observed that amidst these developments, the credit cycle progressed within the expansionary phase with the gradual widening of the credit gap. While these developments are encouraging in terms of stabilisation of the financial sector, lingering macrofinancial challenges continued to pose concerns, the CBSL said.

Diminished real income amidst elevated price levels and rigidities in the labour market continued to dampen both the demand for credit and the improvement in credit quality. Moreover, the downward rigidity in market interest rates coupled with declining yet elevated yields of Government securities also hampered the progress of financial intermediation, the CBSL said.

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