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Editorial

US election: What next?

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Monday 9th November 2020

President Donald J. Trump was planning to paint the town red. His plan having gone pear-shaped, the Democrats are doing that. Joe Biden has emerged the winner in the US presidential race. He had won 279 electoral votes and Trump 214, at the time of going to press. President Trump’s allegations of electoral frauds, undue delays in vote counting and other such issues have taken the gloss off the Democratic win to some extent.

This is not the first time there have been allegations of fraud and intimidation anent a US presidential election. Such incidents were widespread in some parts of the US including Louisiana and South Carolina, during the closely contested 1876 presidential election, and both Democrats and Republicans were responsible for them, according to historians.

Interestingly, Trump, whom Russia is accused of having made the President, has been brought down by what he calls the China virus, among other things. The Democrats were hoping for a walk in the park, on 03 November, but Trump put up a good fight; if not for the pandemic, which has plunged the US into chaos, Trump would perhaps have been able to secure a second term. The Republicans have performed impressively in the Senate and House races, which went alongside the presidential election.

The American polity is riven with deep divisions. The biggest challenge before President elect Biden will be to make the American democracy great again, and reunite the United States. He addressed the nation very eloquently and undertook to do so. However, the proof of the pudding is said to be in the eating. He will have to preside over one of the worst crises in the history of the US as well as the world. The US topped 125,000 daily COVID-19 infections on Friday, and this portends serious trouble for the new administration to be formed. Trump chose to keep the country open despite the rapid increase in infections, and his modus operandi has not worked. He fought shy of closing the country as he did not want the economy to suffer. Lockdowns will entail huge economic, political and social costs. How does Biden propose to get on top of the situation?

The Democrats have defeated the nationalistic forces that rallied behind Trump. But whether they will succeed in managing their electoral gains hinges on Biden’s ability to deliver. Will he and Kamala Harris be able to live up to the Americans’ expectations? We are reminded of the 2015 regime change in this country. It was also considered a setback for nationalism and saw the coming together of a docile President and a self-assertive second-in-command. What happened thereafter is now history.

Meanwhile, the process of electing the US president is not yet over. What is known as the general election has been completed, for all practical purposes, although the final result has not yet been announced. The people have voted for 538 electors in favour of Biden and Trump, and the exact number of electoral votes each of them has secured will be known soon. Thereafter, it is up to the electors to vote for either Biden or Trump when they meet as the Electoral College, on 14 Dec. 2020. Their votes are sent to the Congress for the final tally, which is scheduled to be announced on 06 January 2021.

The Founding Fathers expected electors to be ‘men capable of analyzing’ presidential candidates, but the members of the Electoral College are today bound by their party allegiances more than anything else. The electors are thus party loyalists, but not all of them are legally bound to vote for the candidates they have publicly declared their allegiance to. There been instances of ‘faithless’ electors voting for candidates other than those they were pledged to. Following the conclusion of the 1948, 1960 and 1968 presidential elections, when the Electoral College met, third parties received electoral votes, much to the disappointment of the voting public and the main candidates. After the presidential elections in 1976, 2004 and 2016, faithless votes changed the final tallies but had no impact on the outcomes of those races.

In 2016, Republican Candidate Trump lost two electoral votes (out of 306 elected) and his Democratic contender Hillary Clinton five (out of 232 elected), owing to faithless candidates. Some States have legislated for the cancellation of faithless votes, and the electors who cast them are penalised in five States, but those from other places face no such legal barriers.

Faithless electors have not changed the outcome of a US presidential election so far. They are not a problem in an Electoral College blowout situation, but the fact remains that they have the potential either to change the apparent winner or to send a presidential election to the Congress. The US polity is polarised as never before. Even armed Trump supports were sighted near some counting centres. President Trump, having declared himself the winner falsely, is ready to do whatever it takes to retain power, and anything is, therefore, possible. Trump has not conceded defeat, and a representative of his legal team has said that much could happen between the election and the inauguration of the President due on 06 January 2021.

It may be recalled that in 1877, the Congress had to appoint an ad hoc electoral commission to sort out a dispute when both Democratic and Republican candidates who contested the 1876 presidential election—Samuel J. Tilden and Rutherford B. Hayes, respectively—claimed victory with South Carolina, Florida and Louisiana being in doubt. The election results were revised, and the Congress, following a stormy session, announced, on 02 March 1877, that Hayes, who had almost conceded defeat a few months before, had been elected the President.



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Editorial

Noble effort, and roadblocks

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Monday 8th August, 2022

The past few days have seen a surge in efforts to form an all-party government. President Ranil Wickremesinghe has so far held a spate of meetings with other political leaders and civil society activists on the matter, but nothing definitive has come of them. They are not likely to reach a consensus any time soon.

Almost all stakeholders have so far met the President, who has given them a patient hearing and agreed to take their views on board. They have spoken well of the proposed national government and said they are sanguine about the prospects of it becoming a reality. But politicians are those who do not mean what they say and vice versa, and their minds are too elusive for anyone to get inside. All of them have expressed willingness to form a unity government because the people are asking them to make a concerted effort to save the economy, but what they have up their sleeves is anyone’s guess.

The task of roping in politicians to do anything good for the public is more difficult than that of keeping frogs in a lidless container, as they say. If an all-party administration is to be set up to restore politico-social stability and help repair the economy, every stakeholder will have to make a genuine effort. But as for collective action, our political leaders only pay lip service to the national interest; they do just as the seven proverbial wayfarers who agreed to put a fistful of rice each into a pot to make some porridge, but cheated and had to settle for hot water for dinner.

President Wickremesinghe has evinced a keen interest in making all parties represented in Parliament partners in governance, and his efforts are to be commended. But the ground reality is such that the task of forming an all-party administration is beyond the President’s power, for he has only a single MP on his side. Therefore, even if the SJB, the SLFP, the TNA, the SLPP dissidents, etc., are genuinely desirous of forming a national government, they and the President will have a massive hurdle to clear in their path; the SLPP leadership is not well-disposed towards the idea of all-party government because such an arrangement will lead to the loosening of its grip on power.

The SLPP is trying every trick in the book to cling on to power, recover lost ground and be fighting fit politically in time for the next election. It is obviously ready to go to any extent to safeguard its interests. The Rajapaksas have demonstrated that they know more than one way to shoe a horse. The Aragalaya succeeded in ousting President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and pressuring Mahinda Rajapaksa to step down as the Prime Minister, but it has been swings and roundabouts for the anti-government protesters; the Rajapaksa family continues to control the government.

A few moons ago, the Basil Rajapaksa faction of the SLPP was accused of scuttling the then President Rajapaksa’s efforts to set up an all-party government. It serves the interests of the Rajapaksa family to have two persons heavily dependent on the SLPP for their political survival as the President and the Prime Minister, besides a Cabinet consisting of SLPP members and some crossovers.

Powerful as President Wickremesinghe is constitutionally, the fact remains that in reality he is only a big fish in Basil’s pond. The same goes for Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena. He who controls the party that has a majority in Parliament is more powerful than both the President and the Prime Minister. Basil can pull the rug out from under both the President and the Prime Minister, at will. So, it is highly unlikely that they will resort to anything that is not to Basil’s liking. It will be interesting to see the effect of ongoing efforts to form an all-party government on the SLPP’s group dynamics.

Meanwhile, what the country needs is an interim, all-party government with a timeframe for an early general election, and not the continuation of the current dispensation with the participation of some more parties.

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Editorial

Where are we headed?

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Where the country is headed remains very much in the air as this is being written. The frightening fuel queues remain a fact of life although there was some respite after the QR code became effective from last week. The long lines have by no means evaporated and it is obvious to the simplest mind that whatever scheme is enforced – be it the last digit of the registration number for a small entitlement on specific days of the week or the newest method now in operation – the fuel must come in for the distribution to continue. And for that we must find the dollars to pay for the shipments as and when they come in. Therein lies the rub. Having run down our reserves to zero there is no sign of the bridging finance that was hoped for to tide over until an arrangement with the IMF is finalized hopefully sooner than later. However what is in force today is more equitable than what prevailed previously in that distribution is fairer.

The gas supply situation seems to be assured for the next couple of months. But gas, like fuel. also cannot be purchased for printed rupees. While the gas queues are now gone, when they will reappear is anybody’s guess. We have a new president and his maiden policy statement delivered last week was welcomed by many quarters. It was several decades ago that British economist Joan Robinson said that people in then Ceylon were used to eating the fruit before the tree was planted. The president used a similar idiom talking about his 25-year plan saying he wouldn’t be around when the tree he is planting begins to bear. Whether Mr. Wickremesinghe, now 73-years old, plans to seek a new term after serving out the balance tenure of the former president is not clear. In any case that’s all pie in the sky. He’s first got to make almost instant delivery on many fronts and external factors control that ability. His policy statement suggested confidence but whether this is misplaced or not remains to be seen.

Obviously an all party government, which the former president also sought to form, is still proving elusive although some support appears to have been won. GR eventually ended up with a new prime minister from the zero-scoring UNP replacing his discredited brother before fleeing the country and installing Ranil Wickremesinghe as acting president. That the UNP did not win a single seat at the last parliamentary election and gained its solitary representation via the National List on the basis of its all- island poll did not really mean that the greens were totally wiped out. What the election result demonstrated was that Sajith Premadasa with his new Samagi Jana Balavegaya polled those votes that would otherwise have gone to the UNP if the party remained intact. The majority of the UNP’s previous MPs preferred Sajith’s leadership to Ranil’s. While Wickremesinghe conceded the losing presidential election slot to Premadasa in 2019, he clung on to the party leadership and that resulted in the break-up leading to disaster.

The new president right now is busy trying to secure as much support as he can from parties already represented in parliament for a broad based government. National Freedom Front leader Wimal Weerawansa, never a friend of Wickremesinghe or the UNP, last week voted for the State of Emergency saying that the near anarchy that prevailed in recent weeks cannot be allowed to continue. He is most probably wide open for a ministry in the Wickremesinghe government. Many others too are knocking at the door and the numbers game will ensure that some of them will be admitted. This has for too long been the state of play in this so-called Democratic Socialist Republic. The present administration is clearly going to abjectly fail in ensuring that the new government will be confined to a competent cabinet of around a dozen ministers. It is not even likely that the best available talent in the incumbent parliament, leave alone expertise from outside, is going to be drawn into the effort to get the country out of the present mess. The promised executive committee system, giving a role to all MPs in the business of running the government, is poor compensation.

It is said that politics is the art of the possible. Given the scramble for political plums it has proved impossible during the past many decades to confine the cabinet to a reasonable number. The political will to so is sadly lacking. Already a convict carrying a suspended sentence for extortion is in the cabinet. A minister asked by GR to step down following a bribery solicitation complaint has been reappointed following lightening swift clearance by a government appointed committee. There is no public confidence in such whitewashes. The people have no confidence whatever in lukewarm prosecutions that have resulted in a spate of acquittals. While promises of stamping out corruption are a dime a dozen delivery has been totally lacking.

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Editorial

SJB’s dilemma

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Saturday 6th August 2022

President Ranil Wickremesinghe and SJB Leader Sajith Premadasa were scheduled to meet yesterday for talks on an all-party government. The SJB is in a dilemma. It is faced with the prospect of losing more MPs to the UNP, which is emerging stronger unexpectedly. Some SJB MPs have already broken ranks, and speculation is rife that several others are likely to follow suit soon. This is a worrisome proposition for the SJB, which is divided on the proposed power sharing arrangement, which some of its MPs are openly speaking in favour of.

The SJB contemptuously rejected the idea of a unity government when it was first mooted following the appointment of Wickremesinghe as the Prime Minister in May. It continued to demand a snap general election, insisting that it would not wield power without a popular mandate. It seems to have softened its stand if its willingness to talk with the President on the proposed unity government is any indication.

Premadasa has reportedly said he will quit politics if undue influence is exerted on his MPs to join the all-party government to be formed. It is doubtful whether the SJB MPs who are being wooed by the UNP will give a tinker’s cuss about such threats of political self-harm, as it were; they will defect if they are convinced that they can further their interests by returning to the UNP’s fold. After all, most of the SJB MPs are ex-UNPers.

Premadasa is in the current predicament thanks to his indecisiveness. He must be regretting his refusal to accept the offer of premiership following the resignation of Mahinda Rajapaksa as the Prime Minister, in May. He made a volte face when President Rajapaksa moved to appoint Wickremesinghe the PM, but he missed the bus.

President Wickremesinghe has said he will revive the UNP. So, he will have to shore up the UNP support base and vote bank; he will go all out to win over the UNPers who joined the SJB. Some members of the SLFP and the SLPP are also likely to join the UNP if the President succeeds in living up to the people’s expectations and revitalising his party.

Wickremesinghe has been a victim of crossovers. He had a significant number of his MPs joining the UPFA government, in 2005, following the election of Mahinda Rajapaksa as the President. Some of his MPs also crossed over in 2010, when President Rajapaksa was re-elected.

Wickremesinghe has also used crossovers to bring down governments. The Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga government fell in 2001 because about 16 of her MPs joined the UNP, and among them was her trusted lieutenant S. B. Dissanayake, who was the General Secretary of the SLFP at the time. The second Mahinda Rajapaksa government (2010-2015) looked rock-solid with a two-thirds majority in Parliament; the UNP was extremely weak due to crossovers and internal disputes, but Wickremesinghe sprang a huge surprise by causing a rift in the Rajapaksa administration. SLFP General Secretary Maithripala Sirisena defected together with more than a dozen UPFA MPs, and defeated Rajapaksa in the presidential race. Thus, it may be seen that Wickremesinghe is a veteran in the game of crossovers, and the SJB’s fears are not unfounded.

Perhaps, SJB Leader Premadasa could learn from former President Sirisena how to prevent a possible disintegration of his party. Sirisena blundered by antagonising a section of the SLFP, which he took over after securing the presidency in 2015. His hostility led to a split in the SLFP and the birth of the SLPP, but thereafter he acted tactfully. He joined forces with the Rajapaksas to prevent many other SLFPers from crossing over to the SLPP to contest the last general election (2020). He knew he would be left with only two or three parliamentary seats if he did not do so. He made a virtue of necessity by making the SLFP part of the SLPP coalition. He ran with the Rajapaksas and hunted with the Opposition. He might do so again as regards the proposed all-party government, for some of his MPs are likely to join it. Premadasa is apparently left with no alternative but to do a Sirisena.

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