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The questionable wisdom for pursuing LNG

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by Eng Parakrama Jayasinghe

I have been advocating the need for a rational evaluation of the need if any, and the wisdom of adopting LNG as an option for our energy needs, since 2019. The following have been published in the national papers.

The LNG Saga

http://epaper.island.lk/paper/2021/10/04

The LNG Option –Need for a deeper re-think urgently – Dec 4, 2019

http://island.lk/index.php?page_cat=article-details&page=article-details&code_title=215420#

What do we need? LNG or NG or neither? – Nov 8, 2019

I am led to wonder if I have been just wasting my time and efforts, judging from the recent events, as we hear the same inadequately analyzed and ill conceived and outdated proposals being aggressively pursued in total disregard to the significant changes which have been happening throughout the world in the interim. Now a cabinet paper has been submitted citing massive savings, which a commentator has claimed to be overstated by 100% using the data in the same expert report, based on which the Cabinet Paper has been drafted.

LNG switch: Cabinet paper contains flawed projected savings | Print Edition – The Sunday Times, Sri Lanka

If this is true, it would only continue the familiar trend ever since the idea was first put forward many years ago, cherry picking of data to fit the notion including patently erroneous or unsubstantiated assumptions.

It will be recalled that the use of LNG as a source of fuel for power generation was proposed as a transitional fuel about ten years ago. Since no one wanted to openly object to the growing and successful development of renewable energy, LNG was proposed to be the intermediate solution until the solar and wind energy became financially viable and technically reliable. That was over ten years ago.

However, the fact that much has changed even in Sri Lanka, in the adoption of both these technologies and it is now universally accepted that Renewable Energy is more economical than any fossil fuel based power in addition to being environmentally benign. There are dozens of references, including the International Energy Agency ( https://www.iea.org/ ) confirming this status.

But unfortunately, the same old outdated arguments are being trotted forward in total disregard to the much changed ground realities. The primary culprit is the Ceylon Electricity Board planners who find it impossible to get rid of their bias for continued dependence on imported fossil fuels and the prejudice against the indigenous renewable energy (RE) resources contrary to the often repeated assurance of their support for the development of RE. Perhaps due to the fear of losing their strangle hold on the electricity sector as the state monopoly or some other agendas which I will leave the readers to judge.

Fig 1- LNG- Price variation 2017 -2021 . Price $ 5.0 /MMBTU and US $ = Rs 210

A few years ago the attraction of LNG was understandable, both due to the fact that the world LNG prices were at a historical low, and there was hope of our own Natural Gas in the Mannar basin being developed, so that any local investments to adopt the LNG option both in way of the infrastructure and generation facilities appeared justifiable.

The circumstances have changed so much that such justification can no longer be done with the much increased price of LNG and the highly depreciated Rupee, proving once more the danger of dependence on imported fossil fuels, on supply of which we have no control on one side and the continued enhanced drain of FOREX on the other. The long petrol and gas queues and hours long power cuts not long ago were the direct result of such dependence. Replacing oil with LNG is certainly not the solution now, when the alternatives have proven commercially viable even in Sri Lanka and in the rest of the world .

But does the CEB or their consultants or their masters in the Ministry of Power and the government , give any consideration to these altered circumstances, let alone the undeniable and encouraging progress made in the adoption of RE resources which do not require any imported fuels and are cheaper and environmentally benign? It is a great national tragedy that this is hardly the case.

The present government of the NPP, appears to have been sold the same recipe of the now mythical essential need and the value of LNG, as even their policy documents have listed LNG as the option for the future.

The CEB with the support of the newly appointed Minister and the Secretary has pounced upon this as an imperative in total disregard for the other established policies of

· Reaching 70% RE contribution by 2030 and Carbon neutrality by 2050

· Adopting least economic cost mode of generation

· None dependence on imported energy sources for future energy security and thereby the National Security

· Cease building of new coal-fired power plants. A new policy is added

· New addition of firm capacity will be from clean energy sources such as re-gasified liquefied natural gas (R-LNG).

This last statement is highly contestable as LNG is not clean in consideration of the entire supply chain and is reported to be 33% higher emitter of Carbon Dioxide than coal.

The falsity and Lack of Coherence of CEB Arguments in support

And CEB continues to pursue their lopsided arguments and have proposed addition of over 3,500 MW of LNG based power in their Long Term Generation Plan from 2025 to 2044. Now the Chairman has advocated to the government, that the stalled tender for the development of a Floating Storage and Re-Gasification Unit ( FSRU) be reactivated. But no mention has been made of any arrangement to source LNG and the reliability of such supplies in the long term, which one would have thought is the primary requirement before any steps are taken in building user end facilities.

Fig 2 – Current Price trends of LNG –

Sri Lanka certainly cannot claim to be out of bankruptcy, although some measure of stability has been attained only by postponing the repayment of massive amount of foreign loans, which will come to haunt us in the near future as close as 2028. Thus, understandably the government is very keen to increase the FOREX earnings to reduce the continuing gap between cost of imports and the export earnings. Therefore, without a much broader and deeper analysis of the claimed advantages and savings and as the panaceas for resolving the technical issues faced by the CEB, a hasty decision to opt for addition of LNG could hardly be considered wise.

This is a matter of great national concern and such a decision which will only exacerbate the Balance of Payments cannot be left to the CEB or even the Ministry of Energy without intense in-depth analysis . This should cover all aspects of costs , reliability in the long term of supplies and costs and other economic considerations approved after a much wider stakeholder consultation. Hitherto there has never been such a comprehensive study or consultation. The present promise of lower cost of generation yet to be proven and in total disregard to the above issues is certainly not acceptable.

The issues which a has come to light both during the earlier instances when such hasty decisions were mooted and also in the analysis of the Draft Long Term Generation Expansion Plan 2025-2044 are discussed below.

· The cost of LNG based power generation.

This must include not only the cost of the LNG itself but also all other costs involved in the deployment of the FSRU and regassification process and the piping of the re-gassified LNG to the coast as well as the added pipe network required to reach the power plant. While some numbers can be quoted on the world prices of LNG and the historical trends, there are no established costs of the other aspects. The reality in respect of the world prices then and now are shown below .

The change in world market price of LG and its impact on Sri Lanka can be compared as below

As such how can anyone even contemplate a flat trajectory for future prices as childishly shown in the above chart used in the LTEGP? Even a simple private businessman would not plan any future venture based on such impossible projections. But then the CEB is not held responsible for any disasters they have been causing over the years and plans to plunge the entire country to anther disaster.

Fig 3 – CEB prediction of LNG prices The change in world market price of LG and its impact on Sri Lanka can be compared as below

The LTGEP reveals that that the annual natural gas consumption will remain at a very low level (below 0.6 MTPA) till 2035. This will add a substantial cost to the capacity charge of the FSRU which has to be accounted for when the total LNG fuel costs are calculated and thus further increase the cost of generation.

The demand will remain low at about 0.6 MTPA which is well below the capacity of a FSRU that would interest any investor. There is an attempt to blow this up by planning totally unacceptable plans to increase demand by converting the aging plants at Kelanitissa and even to use if for transport.

It is quite unlikely that any investors would be interested in catering to such low volumes unless there is provision for substantial premiums on the sale price. This added to the current East Asia price of $ 15.04 plus the other charges have already made this option none viable. Using even the declared price of $ 11.90 the cost of generation would be over Rs 55.00 /kWh. https://view.argusmedia.com

For Sri Lanka , the governing factor is the cost of generation which must include the entire supply chain and infra structure costs development and operation, including any take or pay provisions or premiums for lower scope of supplies. These considerations have been swept under the carpet by erroneous data and plainly misleading numbers such as assuming that the price of LNG will be none variable in the future. This was done in case of coal and is still being practiced.

Fig 5 – LNG demand prediction in LTEGP 2024-2044

Promise of a Clean Fuel

It is futile to try and paint LNG as clean and low in carbon emission. The carbon emission has to be gauged across the entire supply chain. There are studies to say that LNG is has 33% higher carbon emission than coal.

Green washed: LNG emits 33% more carbon than coal, new report finds

As such the promise of LNG already fails on both counts based on which it has been promoted. That of economical cost of generation and the green house emissions. This is without any consideration of the totally avoidable additional drain of foreign exchange.

What does the CEB expects to gain by this addition of LNG?

The only reason for the CEB to pursue this goal is only to perpetuate the dependence on imported fossil fuels, now that their former goal of adding more coal power has been soundly rejected even by the previous government. There is no way that this can be considered a progressive move on one hand because of the continued drain on foreign exchange for the import of LNG and the impact on the long term energy security of the country with dependence on a source completely outside the control of Sri Lanka.

They hide these dangers by citing issues of a need for Base Load power and spinning reserves and the none firm nature of the two renewable energy sourced of solar and wind.

All these problems have been well resolved by other countries and the CEB chooses to turn a blind eye to promote this nationally disastrous move even going to the extent of citing patently false data.

The Ministry and the Government must take urgent action to understand the truth and prevent this disaster being perpetuated.

Conclusion

The Government has several promises to keep.

· Build up the FOREX reserves to face the debt repayment challenge in 2028

· Reduce the consumer tariff by 35%.

Both these will be highly doubt full if the CEB is continued these unviable proposals. Their claim of inability to reduce the consumer tariff was soundly debunked by highly researched presentations made during the recent public consultations. It was also pointed out that the consumer tariff can be reduced significantly reduced by eliminating the use of oil for power generation as early as possible. The CEB now proposes to replace such positive trend by committing the country to perhaps even more damaging introduction of LNG.

The CEB is driven only by their inability and unwillingness to change their Frog in The Well attitude and assimilate the more progressive developments in the RE sector in the best interests of Sri Lanka and its citizens. The question has to be asked, is the CEB or even the Ministry of Energy can be trusted to make such decisions which affects the entire country without a wide ranging public consultation?

The Ministry and the Govt should at least now officially assign the responsibility and accountability of achieving the national objectives, of much reduced consumer tariff and goal of reaching the 70% RE target by year 2030.

This is the right of the People of Sri Lanka , who are the true owners of the Energy Sector and Resources and are the major Stake Holder and not the CEB



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NASA’s Epic Flight, Trump’s Epic Fumble and Asian Dilemmas

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Epic Crew (L-R): Jeremy Hansen, Victor Glover, Reid Wiseman Christina and Christina Koch

Three hours after the spectacular Artemis II flight launch in Florida, US President Donald Trump delivered a forlorn speech from Washington. Thirty three days after starting the war against Iran as Epic Fury, the President demonstrated on national and global televisions the Epic Fumble he has made out of his Middle East ‘excursion’. It was an April Fool’s Day speech, 20 minutes of incoherent rambling with the President looking bored, confused, disengaged and dispirited. He left no one wiser about what will come next, let alone what he might do next.

There was more to April Fool’s Day this year in that it brought out the nation’s good, bad and the ugly, all in a day’s swoop. The good was the Artemis II flight carrying astronauts farther from the Earth’s orbit and closer to the moon for the first time in over 50 years. The mission is a precursor for future flights and will test the performance of a new spacecraft, gather new understanding of human conditioning, and extend the boundaries of lunar science. It is a testament to humankind being able to make steady progress in science and technology at one end of a hopelessly uneven world, while poverty, bigotry and belligerence simmer violently at the other end.

Terrible Trump

The four Artemis II astronauts, three Americans, Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, and Christina Koch, and one Canadian, Jeremy Hansen, are also symptomatic of the endurance of America’s inclusive goodness in spite of efforts by the Trump Administration to snuff the nation’s fledgling DEI (Diversity, Equity and Inclusion) ethos. To wit, of the four astronauts, Victor Glover, a Caribbean American, is the first person of colour, Christina Koch the first woman, and Jeremy Hansen of Canada the first non-American – to fly this far beyond the earth’s orbit. All in spite of Trump’s watch.

Yet Trump managed to showcase his commitment to America’s ugliness, on the same day, by presenting himself at the Supreme Court hearing on the constitutionality of his most abominable Executive Order – to stop the American tradition of birthright citizenship. He keeps posting that America is Stupid in being the only country in the world that grants citizenship at birth to everyone born in America, regardless of the status of their parents, except the children of foreign diplomats or members of an occupying enemy force. In fact, there are 32 other countries in the world that grant birthright citizenship, a majority of them in the Americas indicating the continent’s history as a magnet for migrants ever since Christopher Columbus discovered it for the rest of the world.

And birthright citizenship in the US is enshrined in the constitution by the 14th Amendment, supplemented by subsequent legislation and reinforced by a century and a half of case law. Trump wants to reverse that. Thus far and no further was the message from the court at the hearing. A decision is expected in June and the legal betting is whether it would be a 7-2 or 8-1 rebuke for Trump. In a telling exchange during the hearing, when the government’s Solicitor General John Sauer quite sillily dramatized that “we’re in new world now … where eight billion people are one plane ride way from having a child who’s a US citizen,” Chief Justice John Roberts quietly dismissed him: “Well, it’s a new world. It’s the same Constitution!”

Trump’s terrible ‘bad’ is of course the war that he started in the Middle East and doesn’t know how to end it. Margaret MacMillan, acclaimed World War I historian and a great grand daughter of World War I British Prime Minister Lloyd George from Wales, has compared Trump’s current war to the origins of the First World War. Just as in 1914, small Serbia had pulled the bigger Russia into a war that was not in Russia’s interest, so too have Netanyahu and Israel have pulled Trump and America into the current war against Iran. World War I that started in August, 2014 was expected to be over before Christmas, but it went on till November, 2018. Weak leaders start wars, says MacMillan, but “they don’t have a clear idea of how they are going to end.”

There are also geopolitical and national-political differences between the 1910s and 2020s. America’s traditional allies have steadfastly refused to join Trump’s war. And Trump is under immense pressure at home not to extend the war. This is one American war that has been unpopular from day one. The cost of military operations at as high as two billion dollars a day is anathema to the people who are aggravated by rising prices directly because of the war. Trump’s own mental acuity and the abilities of his cabinet Secretaries are openly under question. There are swirling allegations of military contract profiteering and selective defense investments – one involving Secretary of War Pete Hegseth.

Trump’s Administration is coming apart with sharp internal divisions over the war and government paralysis on domestic matters. There are growing signs of disarray – with Trump firing his Attorney General for not being effective prosecuting his political enemies and Secretary Hegseth ordering early retirement for Army Chief of Staff Randy George. In America’s non-parliamentary presidential system, Trump is allowed to run his own forum where he lies daily without instant challenger or contradiction, and it is impossible to get rid of his government by that simple device called no confidence motion.

Asian Dilemmas

Howsoever the current will last or end, what is clear is that its economic consequences are not going to disappear soon. Iran’s choke on the Strait of Hormuz has affected not only the supply and prices of oil and natural gas but a family of other products from fertilizers to medicines to semiconductors. The barrel price of oil has risen from $70 before the war to over $100 now. After Trump’s speech on April 1, oil prices rose and stock prices fell. The higher prices have come to stay and even if they start going down they are not likely to go down to prewar levels.

There are warnings that with high prices, low growth and unemployment, the global economy is believed to be in for a stagflation shock like in the 1970s. Even if the war were to end sooner than a lot later, the economic setbacks will not be reversed easily or quickly. Supplies alone will take time to get back into routine, and it will even take longer time for production in the Gulf countries to get back to speed. Not only imports, but even export trading and exports to Middle East countries will be impacted. The future of South Asians employed in the Middle East is also at stake.

In 1980, President Carter floated the Carter Doctrine that the US would use military force to ensure the free flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump is now upending that doctrine – first by misusing America’s military force against Iran and provoking the strait’s closure, and then claiming that keeping the strait open is not America’s business. Ever selfish and transactional, Trump’s argument is that America is now a net exporter of oil and is no longer dependent on Middle East oil.

To fill in the void, and perhaps responding to Trump’s call to “build up some delayed courage,” UK has hosted a virtual meeting of about 40 countries to discuss modalities for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. US was not one of them. While Downing Street has not released a full list of attendees, European countries, some Gulf countries, Canada, Australia, Japan and India reportedly attended the meeting. Which other Asian countries attended the meeting is not known.

British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper has blamed Iran for “hijacking” an international shipping route to “hold the global economy hostage,” while insisting that the British initiative is “not based on any other country’s priority or anything in terms of the US or other countries”. French President Emmanuel Macron now visiting South Korea has emphasized any resolution “can only be done in concert with Iran. So, first and foremost, there must be a ceasefire and a resumption of negotiations.”

Prior to the British initiative focussed on the Strait of Hormuz, Egypt, Pakistan and Türkiye have been playing a backdoor intermediary role to facilitate communications between the US and Iran. Trump as usual magnified this backroom channel as serious talks initiated by Iran’s ‘new regime’, and Trump’s claims were promptly rejected by Iran. There were speculations that Pakistan would host a direct meeting between US Vice President JD Vance and an Iranian representative in Islamabad. So far, only the foreign ministers of Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye have met in Islamabad, and Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar flew to Beijing to brief his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, of Pakistan’s diplomatic efforts.

The Beijing visit produced a five-point initiative calling for a ceasefire, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and diplomacy instead of escalation. The five-point pathway seems a follow up to the 15-point demand that the US sent to Iran through the three Samaritan intermediaries which Iran rejected as they did not include any of Iran’s priorities. The state of these mediating efforts are now unclear after President Trump’s April Fool’s Day rambling. In fairness, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has announced that his country intends to keep ‘nudging’ the US and Iran towards resuming negotiations and ending the war.

While these efforts are welcome and deserve everyone’s best wishes, they have also led to what BBC has called the “chatter in Delhi” – “is India being sidelined” by Pakistan’s intermediary efforts? Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar’s rather undiplomatic characterization of Pakistan’s role as “dalali” (brokerage) provoked immediate denunciation in Islamabad, while Indian opposition parties are blaming the Modi Government’s foreign policy stances as an “embarrassment” to India’s stature.

The larger view is that while it is Asia that is most impacted by the closure of Hormuz, with Singapore’s Foreign Affairs Minister Vivian Balakrishnan calling it an “Asian crisis”, Asia has no leverage in the matter and Asian countries have to make special arrangements with Iran to let their ships navigate through the Strait of Hormuz. There is no pathway for co-ordinated action. China is still significant but not consequentially effective. India’s all-alignment foreign policy has made it less significant and more vulnerable in the current crisis. And Pakistan has opened a third dimension to Asia’s dilemmas.

In the circumstances, it is fair to say that Sri Lanka is the most politically stable country among its South Asian neighbours. Put another way, Sri Lanka has a remarkably consensual and uncontentious government in comparison to the old governments in India and Pakistan, and even the new government in Bangladesh. But that may not be saying much unless the NPP government proves itself to be sufficiently competent, and uses the political stability and the general goodwill it is still enjoying, to put the country’s economic department in order. More on that later.

by Rajan Philips

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Ranjith Siyambalapitiya turns custodian of a rare living collection

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Siyambalapitiya’s ancsetral house built on 1923 at Vendala

From Parliament to Fruit Grove:

After more than two decades in politics, rising to the positions of Cabinet Minister and Deputy Speaker of Parliament, Ranjith Siyambalapitiya has turned his attention to a markedly different arena — one far removed from parliamentary debate and political intrigue.

Today, Siyambalapitiya spends much of his time tending to a sprawling 15-acre home garden at Vendala in Karawanella, near Ruwanwella, nurturing what has gradually evolved into one of the most remarkable private fruit collections in the country.

Situated in Sri Lanka’s Wet Zone Low Country agro-ecological region (WL2), Ruwanwella lies at an elevation of roughly 100–200 metres above sea level. Deep red-yellow podzolic soils, annual rainfall exceeding 2,500 millimetres, and a warm humid tropical climate combine to create conditions that make the region one of the richest areas in the island for fruit tree diversity.

Within this favourable ecological setting, Siyambalapitiya has become what may best be described as a custodian of a living collection—a fruit grove that now contains around 554 fruit trees and vines, many of them rare or seldom seen in contemporary agriculture.

Of these, 448 varieties have already been properly identified and documented with the assistance of agriculturist Dr. Suba Heenkenda, a retired expert of the Department of Agriculture. Together they have undertaken the painstaking task of cataloguing the plants by their botanical names, common Sinhala names, and the names used in ancient Ayurvedic and indigenous medical texts, assigning each species a unique identification number.

According to Siyambalapitiya, the Vendala estate is possibly the only single location in Sri Lanka where such a large number of fruit varieties—particularly rare and underutilized species—are maintained within one property.

“This garden came down to me through my grandfather, grandmother, mother and father,” he says. “It is a place shaped by three generations.”

The estate, he explains, began as a traditional home garden where crops such as tea, coconut and rubber were cultivated alongside fruit trees planted by family members over decades. Over time, however, it evolved into something much larger: a carefully nurtured grove preserving both common and obscure fruit species.

Siyambalapitiya recalls with affection one of the oldest trees in the garden—a honey-jack tree known locally as “Lokumänike’s Rata Kos Gaha.”

The story behind it has become part of family lore. According to village elders, his grandmother had brought home the sapling after visiting the Colombo Grand Exhibition in 1952 many decades ago and planted it near the house.

The tree soon gained fame in the village. Its tender jackfruit proved ideal for curry and mallum, while the ripe fruit was renowned for its sweetness.

“Ripe jackfruit from this tree tastes like honey itself,” Siyambalapitiya says. “Even the seeds are full of flour and can be eaten throughout the year.”

Yet age has not spared the venerable tree. It now shows signs of disease, and Siyambalapitiya and his staff have had to treat old wounds and monitor unusual bark damage.

“Once lightning struck it,” he recalls. “The largest branch began to die. Saving the tree required what I would call a kind of surgical operation.”

Such care, he says, reflects the deep attachment he feels toward the collection.

His fascination with fruit trees began in childhood. While attending Royal College in Colombo and living in a boarding house he disliked, Siyambalapitiya would insist that the family procure new fruit saplings for him to plant during his weekend visits home.

“That was the only ‘price’ I demanded for going to school,” he laughs.

Over the years the collection expanded steadily as he encountered new plants in forests, nurseries, and rural landscapes across the island.

The result today is a grove that includes traditional Sri Lankan fruit species, underutilized native varieties, forest fruits, and plants introduced from overseas.

Some species originate in Arabian deserts, while others thrive naturally in cooler climates such as Europe. Certain plants require greenhouse-like conditions, while others are hardy forest trees.

Managing such diversity is no easy task.

“One plant asks for rain, another asks for cold, and yet another prefers heat,” Siyambalapitiya explains. “Too much rain makes some sick, too much sun troubles others. The older trees overshadow the younger ones. You cannot feed or medicate them all in the same way.”

He compares the task to caring for a household filled with people from many nations and ages—each with different needs.

Despite the challenges, he believes the effort is worthwhile, particularly because many of the trees are native species that have become increasingly rare.

“If things continue as they are, some of these plants may disappear from our lives,” he warns.

To preserve knowledge about them, Siyambalapitiya is preparing to launch a book titled “Mage Vendala Palathuru Arana” (My Vendala Fruit Grove), which serves as an introductory guide to the collection.

The book, scheduled for release on April 18 at the Vendala estate, will be attended by Ven. Dr. Kirinde Assaji Thera, Chief Incumbent of Gangaramaya Temple,

Uruwarige Wannila Aththo, the leader of the Indigenous Vedda Community,

a long-serving former employee who helped maintain the plantation, and Sunday Dhamma school students from the region, who will participate as guests of honour.

The publication will also mark Siyambalapitiya’s eighth book. Previously he authored seven works and wrote more than 500 weekly newspaper columns offering commentary on politics and current affairs.

While working on the fruit catalogue, he is simultaneously writing another volume reflecting on his 25-year political career, including his tenure as Deputy Finance Minister during Sri Lanka’s most severe economic crisis.

For Siyambalapitiya, however, the fruit grove represents more than a hobby or academic exercise.

“The fruit we enjoy is the result of a tree’s effort to reproduce,” he says. “Nature has given fruits their taste, fragrance and colour to attract us. All the tree asks in return is that its seeds be carried to new places.”

That simple cycle of life, he believes, has continued for tens of thousands of years.

“And those who love trees,” he adds, “are guardians of the world’s survival.”

by Saman Indrajith

Pix by Tharanga Ratnaweera

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Smoke Free Sweden calls out to WHO not to suggest nicotine alternatives

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It has been reported by the international advocacy initiative, ‘Smoke Free Sweden’ (‘SFS’) that many International health experts have begun criticizing the World Health Organization (WHO) for presenting safer nicotine alternatives rather than recognizing its role in accelerating decline in smoking.

As the world’s premier technical health agency, the WHO is empowered to support strategies that reduce morbidity and mortality even if they do not eliminate the underlying behaviour. Furthermore, it should base its guidance on evolving scientific knowledge, which includes comparative-risk assessments. Equating smoke-free nicotine alternatives with combustible cigarettes, is essentially putting lives at risk, according to the health experts contacted by SFS.

The warning follows recent WHO comments suggesting that vaping and other non-combustible nicotine products are driving tobacco use in Europe. This narrative ignores real-world evidence from countries like Sweden where access to safer alternatives has coincided with record low smoking rates.

A “Smoke-Free” status is defined as an adult daily smoking prevalence below 5% and Sweden is on the brink of officially achieving this milestone. This is clear proof that pragmatic harm-reduction policies work. Sweden’s success has been driven by adult smokers switching to lower-risk alternatives such as oral tobacco pouches (Snus), oral nicotine pouches and other non-combustible products.

“Vapes and pouches are helping to reduce risk, and Sweden’s smoke-free transition proves this,” said Dr Delon Human, leader of Smoke Free Sweden. “We should be celebrating policies that help smokers quit combustible tobacco, not spreading fear about the very tools that are accelerating the decline of cigarettes.”

It is further reported by health experts that conflating cigarettes with non-combustible alternatives risks deterring smokers from switching and could slow progress toward reducing tobacco-related disease.

Dr Human emphasized that youth protection and harm reduction are not mutually exclusive.

“It is critically important to safeguard against underage use, but this should be done by targeted, risk-proportionate regulation and proper enforcement, not by sacrificing the right of adults to access products that might save their lives,” he said.

Smoke Free Sweden is calling on global health authorities to adopt evidence-based policies that distinguish clearly between combustible tobacco – the primary cause of tobacco-related death – and lower-risk nicotine alternatives.

“Public health policy must be grounded in science and real-world outcomes,” Dr Human added. “Sweden’s experience shows that when adult smokers are given legal access to safer nicotine alternatives, smoking rates fall faster than almost anywhere else in the world.”

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