Editorial

Sobering economic reality

Published

6 months ago

2025/10/7

Tuesday 7th October, 2025

Budget 2026 is around the corner, and speculation is rife in political circles that the Provincial Council elections will be held early next year. Chances are that the government will present an election-oriented budget and play Santa to garner favour with the electorate in a bid to recover lost ground. At the time of writing, it was reported that an alliance of Opposition parties had won the Udunuwara Cooperative Society election, securing all slots on the board of directors, leaving none for the NPP. Political parties throw their weight behind the candidates contesting co-operative society elections, which serve as political windsocks.

The government is emulating its predecessors in trying to shore up its approval ratings. It has decided to launch a massive state sector recruitment drive amidst pressure from the World Bank to downsize the state service, which is bursting at the seams. It has also launched some mega development projects.

Meanwhile, Sri Lanka has imported more than 37,000 cars and 160,000 motorcycles so far this year, according to media reports. Nearly USD 1 billion has been spent on vehicle imports. Taxes on imported vehicles have risen exponentially, and this is one of the reasons why the government’s revenue has increased considerably. An increase in state revenue is most welcome, but a fine balance has to be maintained between imports aimed at boosting tax revenue and the forex outflow. This is a financial high-wire act that is best left to economists, who must be allowed to make decisions, free from political interference. That is the way to prevent another forex crisis from emerging and leading to a situation where all vehicles, including the newly imported ones, will have to wait in long lines near refilling stations for days on end again.

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Sri Lanka’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating at ‘CCC+’. There is a long way to go, and the government should tread cautiously. Fitch has noted that Sri Lanka’s sovereign rating remains ‘constrained by elevated general government indebtedness and a high interest-revenue ratio despite the completion of the sovereign’s debt restructuring in 2024’. The need for economic reforms cannot be overstated. President Ranil Wickremesinghe (2022-2024) made a host of vital yet unpopular decisions to manage the economic crisis. The biggest challenge for the NPP government is to maintain the growth momentum.

Meanwhile, the US has, in its 2025 Investment Climate Statements, told the NPP government a home truth. While appreciating the fact that the 5 percent GDP growth in 2024 has exceeded expectations, the US has said Sri Lanka’s investment climate remains challenging. “The NPP’s commitment to the country’s $3 billion, four-year (2023-2027) Extended Fund Facility IMF program reassured investors, but many remain wary given the NPP leadership’s historically anti-Western, Marxist-influenced ideology.” One may argue that the US is averse to the JVP’s affinity for the Chinese economic and political models, but it has apparently read the minds of foreign investors accurately. “Give a dog a bad name and hang him,” they say. The JVP finds itself in a Catch-22 situation. Its Marxist political orientation has stood in the way of the NPP government’s efforts to attract foreign investment, but it cannot renounce its ideological shibboleths lest it should alienate its cadres.

Thus, the JVP’s domineering old guard, which calls the shots in the NPP government, has become a liability for the incumbent government where foreign investor confidence is concerned. Moneybags in the sin stock sectors, such as gambling, may not mind parking their black money anywhere in the world, but those who are engaged in ethical and socially responsible investing are wary of taking unnecessary risks in the countries ruled by ideologically confused governments experiencing dialectical tensions between fractions represented by neoliberals and dyed-in-the-wool leftists still living in the Cold War era. Having chosen to run with the Marxist hare and hunt with the neoliberal hounds for political expediency, the JVP is apparently at a loss, unable to figure out whether it is running or hunting, so to speak. The time has come for it to stop signalling left and tuning right, and vice versa, and decide which way to go.

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Editorial

When dirty coal leaves farmers in tears

Published

20 hours ago

2026/03/26

Sahan Weerasooriya

Thursday 26th March, 2026

Coal is not an agricultural output, as is public knowledge, and therefore how on earth it can bring tears to farmers’ eyes, one may ask. But in Sri Lanka dirty coal has not only worsened air pollution in areas surrounding the Norochcholai power plant but also caused untold hardships to farmers across the country, especially in rice-growing areas, besides causing huge losses to the state coffers.

The government has managed to break the back of the fuel-queue problem for all intents and purposes, with the help of the QR-regulated quota system coupled with odd-even rationing. Long queues are seen only in the areas where filling stations have run out of stocks. However, paddy farmers have been left high and dry, without diesel for harvesting; they complain that filling stations in their areas have not received diesel supplies for several days, and they have to pay as much as Rs. 20,000 for harvesting an acre of paddy because diesel is available only on the black market. This situation has come about mainly because huge amounts of diesel are being diverted to the oil-fired power plants to meet a shortfall in electricity generation at the coal-fired Norochcholai power plant due to the use of substandard coal.

The Opposition has claimed that about 800,000 barrels of diesel are supplied to oil-fired power plants to meet the Norochcholai generation shortfall caused by substandard coal daily. This abnormal increase in thermal power generation, due to corruption in the government ranks, has resulted in tremendous pressure on the country’s diesel supplies that could otherwise have been used for transport and agricultural purposes. If the government had cancelled the current coal tender immediately after the first shipment of coal was found to be substandard, and the engineers of the Norochcholai power plant began to complain of a sharp drop in power generation due to the low-quality of coal, it would have been able to save about Rs 8 billion straightaway and prevented further losses due to an increase in the amount of diesel used for power generation. Instead, it chose to retain the current coal supplier under a cloud at the expense of the public, the state coffers and the country’s diesel reserves.

Now, the paddy farmers are unable to gather their harvest and prepare their fields for the next cultivation season, and the Ceylon Electricity Board is seeking a massive power tariff hike to recover losses due to burning diesel to cover the Norochcholai supply gap. The Opposition has repeatedly pointed out in Parliament that the electricity supply shortfall due to dirty coal imports often increases up to 176 MW. Power and energy experts have warned of possible power cuts due to a diesel shortage.

The government has jacked up fuel prices in such a way that one wonders whether it is trying to cover the losses caused by its coal racket and increases in electricity generation costs due to its overreliance on diesel power plants. Cabinet Spokesman Dr. Nalinda Jayatissa claimed at Tuesday’s media briefing that the fuel pricing formula had not been used to work out the current petroleum price increases. He went so far as to claim that the world oil prices had not increased according to any formula. However, Ceylon Petroleum Corporation Managing Director Dr. Mayura Nettikumarage told the media later in the day that fuel pricing formula had been used to determine the fuel price hikes. The pricing formula was introduced to ensure that fuel prices would be cost reflective. So, going by Minister Jayatissa’s claim, the question is why the government has not used the pricing formula to calculate fuel prices. Has it resorted to price gouging?

The JVP-NPP government has sought to use the global energy crisis as an excuse to cover up its coal racket, which has caused a power crisis, but the resentful public will not buy into its false claims and keep quiet. True, the Middle East conflict has caused a global energy crisis, and taken its toll on Sri Lanka’s petroleum reserves and fuel prices. However, we would have faced the current power crisis even if Trump and Netanyahu had behaved, without attacking Iran and plunging the world into chaos.

The previous government blundered by cutting corrupt deals, enabling its leaders and cronies to enrich themselves, mismanaging the economy, causing scarcities, and testing the people’s patience. Its leaders had to outrun angry mobs baying for their blood. When the wolf is at the door, popular support for governments drops to the floor, and people take to the streets. Unless the JVP-NPP government makes an immediate course correction, without defending the corrupt and aggravating the woes of the public, the day may not be far off when its leaders, too, have to showcase their athleticism, if any, and show their pursuers a clean pair of heels each—perish the thought! One may recall that it was irate paddy farmers who fired the first volley at the previous government. They are again on the warpath, demanding diesel and fertiliser.

Editorial

Crisis: Guidelines no silver bullet

Published

2 days ago

2026/03/25

Sahan Weerasooriya

Wednesday 25th March, 2026

The JVP-NPP government is slow on the draw whenever it responds to emergencies. Its long response time stood in the way of disaster mitigation in the immediate aftermath of the landfall of Cyclone Ditwah, which triggered a series of adverse weather events, claiming 638 lives and destroying more than 6,100 houses. Its delayed response also prevented the country from adopting emergency measures to manage its meagre fuel reserves immediately after the eruption of the latest Middle East conflict. Instead of reintroducing the QR-based fuel quota system at the first sign of trouble to prevent panic buying and stockpiling, it kept on issuing fuel to the market while hoarders were having a field day. Worse, it has taken three long weeks to issue energy saving guidelines to the state sector, which is bursting at the seams, with one public official for every 15 citizens. Curtailing waste in the state sector is half the battle in reducing national power and energy consumption substantially.

The Commissioner General of Essential Services has directed all state institutions to adopt the following measures to save energy: reducing fuel used for official travel, limiting physical meetings and using online platforms for that purpose, minimising paper and physical document transfers, reducing the use of air-conditioning, limiting elevator use, expanding online services, keeping offices closed outside working hours and monitoring energy saving. Essential as these measures may be, they cannot be considered a silver bullet. Much more needs to be done.

It has been estimated that if every vehicle in the state owned fleet saves one litre of fuel per day, Sri Lanka could reduce fuel use by about 92,000 litres daily. However, it is doubtful whether state employees will cooperate to reduce fuel consumption. The only way to ensure that they will use less fuel, in our view, is to reduce fuel allocation for the public sector. Many developing countries, such as Pakistan, have taken action to curtail energy demand. They have opted for nationwide austerity measures while Sri Lanka has focused more on conservation guidelines to the public sector and reducing commuting fuel use.

There is a pressing need for Sri Lanka to adopt drastic austerity measures to survive the worsening energy crisis. It ought to emulate Pakistan, which has halved fuel allocations for the state sector for two months, taken 60 percent of government vehicles off the road, suspended fuel allowances for ministers, reduced fuel allocations for state officials by 50 percent, and limited official protocol convoys to only one security vehicle.

The JVP/NPP politicians came to power, promising to use public transport. They ought to fulfil that pledge and set an example to others at this hour of crisis. Why can’t they travel in buses and trains at least until the current energy crisis is over? After all, the people’s representatives in some developed countries, such as the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Germany and Finland, travel in buses and trains or cycle to work. Why can’t the self-proclaimed Marxist leaders in a country like Sri Lanka lead simple lifestyles like their capitalist counterparts in the Global North?

Most of all, while seeking public cooperation to save electricity and energy, the government must ensure that those who caused a sharp decrease in electricity generation at the Norochcholai power plant complex by procuring low-grade coal are brought to justice. The Opposition alleges a daily generation shortfall up to 170 MW due to the use of substandard coal at Norochcholai. This reduced efficiency has forced other power plants to burn diesel to cover the gap. Huge amounts of diesel are used by oil-fired power plants daily to meet the shortfall in electricity generation at Norochcholai, increasing pressure on the diesel supplies that could otherwise be used by the transport sector.

Unfortunately, the government politicians, including President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, have circled the wagons around Energy Minister Kumara Jayakody and his officials responsible for substandard coal imports, making one wonder whether the entire JVP has benefited from the coal racket.

Editorial

Gloom, doom and a ray of hope

Published

3 days ago

2026/03/24

Sahan Weerasooriya

Tuesday 24th March, 2026

The global energy crisis has taken a turn for the worse due to the Middle East conflict. International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol has issued a dire warning. If the Iran war persists, the world will face a mega energy crisis, whose economic impact will be far worse than those of the two oil crises in the 1970s, taken together, he has said, noting that today the world economy is losing about 11 million barrels of oil a day whereas it lost only five million barrels of oil each per day during the two crises in the 1970s. No country will be safe. However, the predicament of the developing nations, such as Sri Lanka, will be even worse, for their governments increase fuel prices in geometric progression when world oil prices rise in arithmetic progression, so to speak.

At this rate, a global recession may not be far off, economists have warned. Economies across the world are already screaming. But US President Donald Trump, who at the behest of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, started the current Middle East conflict, acts whimsically, and a credible endgame is conspicuous by its absence. It is doubtful whether he even has a well-thought-out military strategy. He orders airstrikes on Iran and keeps on pouring taxpayers’ money into an endless war, which may cost Americans more than a trillion dollars eventually, Prof. Linda Bilmes, a Harvard expert, has told The New York Times.

War is synonymous with destruction. In fact, it is hell, as American Civil War General W. T. Sherman famously said. Wars are said to have rules of engagement, but in reality, they are fought according to Rafferty’s rules. The US has used atomic bombs, napalm, Agent Orange, white phosphorus, etc., and carried out numerous massacres besides destroying critical infrastructure in other countries in a bid to win wars. Israel resorted to indiscriminate airstrikes and an equally devastating ground assault in Gaza in retaliation for the Hamas terror attacks. Therefore, the US and Israel should have anticipated fierce resistance and no-holds-barred retaliation from Iran when they carried out unprovoked attacks on that country. It was obvious from the beginning that Iran would shift the theatre of its military action to the economic front to pressure the US and Israel to stop attacks. It has done so with a devastating impact on the global economy. Not that it is totally blameless, but it is the US and Israel that conjured up a casus belli to start the current war and drove Iran to retaliate violently.

Those who started the Middle East war ought to stop it instead of asking Iran to declare a ceasefire, if the global economy is to be saved by reopening vital energy routes in that region. They will only aggravate the situation if they try to reopen the Hormuz Strait militarily. They have already made a series of military miscalculations. Israel and other US allies in the region have Iranian missiles and Kamikaze drones raining down on them. Iran is extending the range and capability of its missiles.

The US and Israel are obviously facing a situation they did not bargain for. They may have thought they would be able to bomb Iran into submission in a day or two and engineer a regime change. Their plan has gone awry. They expected the Iranian civilians to come out and overthrow the beleaguered government, but nothing of the sort has happened.

The best way to reopen the Hormuz Strait for international navigation and help overcome the global economic crisis is for the US and Israel to stop attacks immediately and let the neutral world powers negotiate with Iran, which has shown willingness to soften its stand. Now that Trump and Netanyahu have bragged that they wiped out Iranian nuclear facilities in the first few days of attacks, why they do not stop the war is the question.

It was reported at the time of going to press that President Trump had suspended planned strikes on the Iranian power grid for five days in view of “very good and productive conversations” with Tehran. One can only hope that this window for diplomacy will lead to de-escalation and an enduring ceasefire.