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Editorial

Sobering economic reality

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Tuesday 7th October, 2025

Budget 2026 is around the corner, and speculation is rife in political circles that the Provincial Council elections will be held early next year. Chances are that the government will present an election-oriented budget and play Santa to garner favour with the electorate in a bid to recover lost ground. At the time of writing, it was reported that an alliance of Opposition parties had won the Udunuwara Cooperative Society election, securing all slots on the board of directors, leaving none for the NPP. Political parties throw their weight behind the candidates contesting co-operative society elections, which serve as political windsocks.

The government is emulating its predecessors in trying to shore up its approval ratings. It has decided to launch a massive state sector recruitment drive amidst pressure from the World Bank to downsize the state service, which is bursting at the seams. It has also launched some mega development projects.

Meanwhile, Sri Lanka has imported more than 37,000 cars and 160,000 motorcycles so far this year, according to media reports. Nearly USD 1 billion has been spent on vehicle imports. Taxes on imported vehicles have risen exponentially, and this is one of the reasons why the government’s revenue has increased considerably. An increase in state revenue is most welcome, but a fine balance has to be maintained between imports aimed at boosting tax revenue and the forex outflow. This is a financial high-wire act that is best left to economists, who must be allowed to make decisions, free from political interference. That is the way to prevent another forex crisis from emerging and leading to a situation where all vehicles, including the newly imported ones, will have to wait in long lines near refilling stations for days on end again.

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Sri Lanka’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating at ‘CCC+’. There is a long way to go, and the government should tread cautiously. Fitch has noted that Sri Lanka’s sovereign rating remains ‘constrained by elevated general government indebtedness and a high interest-revenue ratio despite the completion of the sovereign’s debt restructuring in 2024’. The need for economic reforms cannot be overstated. President Ranil Wickremesinghe (2022-2024) made a host of vital yet unpopular decisions to manage the economic crisis. The biggest challenge for the NPP government is to maintain the growth momentum.

Meanwhile, the US has, in its 2025 Investment Climate Statements, told the NPP government a home truth. While appreciating the fact that the 5 percent GDP growth in 2024 has exceeded expectations, the US has said Sri Lanka’s investment climate remains challenging. “The NPP’s commitment to the country’s $3 billion, four-year (2023-2027) Extended Fund Facility IMF program reassured investors, but many remain wary given the NPP leadership’s historically anti-Western, Marxist-influenced ideology.” One may argue that the US is averse to the JVP’s affinity for the Chinese economic and political models, but it has apparently read the minds of foreign investors accurately. “Give a dog a bad name and hang him,” they say. The JVP finds itself in a Catch-22 situation. Its Marxist political orientation has stood in the way of the NPP government’s efforts to attract foreign investment, but it cannot renounce its ideological shibboleths lest it should alienate its cadres.

Thus, the JVP’s domineering old guard, which calls the shots in the NPP government, has become a liability for the incumbent government where foreign investor confidence is concerned. Moneybags in the sin stock sectors, such as gambling, may not mind parking their black money anywhere in the world, but those who are engaged in ethical and socially responsible investing are wary of taking unnecessary risks in the countries ruled by ideologically confused governments experiencing dialectical tensions between fractions represented by neoliberals and dyed-in-the-wool leftists still living in the Cold War era. Having chosen to run with the Marxist hare and hunt with the neoliberal hounds for political expediency, the JVP is apparently at a loss, unable to figure out whether it is running or hunting, so to speak. The time has come for it to stop signalling left and tuning right, and vice versa, and decide which way to go.



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Editorial

Forex rackets:Fish or cut bait

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Public Security Minister Ananda Wijepala has informed Parliament of some root causes of the country’s foreign exchange woes. He told the House the other day that a mega fraud involving the transfer of millions of dollars overseas under the guise of payments for non-existent imports, had been uncovered by the police and the Customs. However, the racket of phantom imports is a common mechanism that facilitates capital flight and illicit financial outflows. It is not of recent origin.

Minister Wijepala informed Parliament that investigations by the Central Crime Investigation Bureau , the Financial Crimes Investigation Division and Sri Lanka Customs had revealed that large-scale foreign exchange transfers were being routed abroad for goods that were never imported, and they contributed to significant dollar outflows from the country.

Minister Wijepala told the House that the loopholes exploited for illicit capital flight had been created through the Foreign Exchange Act No. 12 of 2017 (FEA-2017) during the UNP-led Yahapalana government, which did away with some crucial provisions of the Prevention of Money Laundering Act, No. 5 of 2006, according to which foreign exchange offences were predicate offences for money laundering. One may recall that the JVP backed the UNP-led Yahapalana government, which repealed the Exchange Control Act, No 24 of 1953 (ECA-1953) for the sake of crooks among its cronies. The JVP was even represented on the National Executive Council of that UNP-led administration.

The ECA-1953 was the primary legislative framework governing foreign currency, gold, securities, and cross-border financial transactions in Sri Lanka. In 2017, the Yahapalana government replaced the ECA-1953 with the FEA-2017 on the pretext of liberalising the foreign exchange flow. As per the ECA-1953, violations of its provisions were non-bailable criminal offences and they led to the confiscation of offenders’ property. By the time of its repeal, there were 30 court cases against offenders who included cronies of the UNP and the SLPP. The Frontline Socialist Party has rightly pointed out that when a new Act is introduced, repealing the old one, mention is made of the procedure to be adopted for the cases pending before court over previous offence. The FEA–2017 converted criminal offences under the previous Act into civil offences, which were relegated to the jurisdiction of the Magistrates’ Courts from the High Courts, and allowed bail to be granted by Magistrates. The confiscation of property, which was previously mandatory, was left to the judges’ discretion. The cases filed under the ECA-1953 came to an end. The new Act required frsh cases to be filed within a period of three months, but no such action was taken, and the offenders got off scot-free for all intents and purposes.

The FEA-2017 made an already bad situation worse. It has stood foreign exchange racketeers including errant exporters in good stead, and contributed to the present foreign currency crisis. Now that it has been revealed that errant exporters are parking proceeds from exports overseas and resorting to phantom imports, there is a pressing need for the ECA-1953 to be restored urgently to deal with such racketeers and shore up the country’s forex reserves.

The ongoing desperate measures to stabilise the rupee and tackle the forex issues must be complemented with drastic measures, such as a crackdown on hawala and undiyal networks. Successive governments have baulked at doing so, for their members themselves use these informal channels to stash away their ill-gotten funds in offshore accounts. Unless the illegal outflow of forex is blocked, with errant exporters being made to repatriate export proceeds, it will be well-nigh impossible to overcome the forex problems.

Most of all, there is a pressing need for a new law with provision for foreign exchange racketeers who got away with their crimes following the introduction of the FEA-2017 to be brought to justice. Their illegal operations have stood in the way of the country’s effort to tackle a worsening currency crisis.

Having talked the talk, the JVP-NPP government must walk the walk. It must fish or cut bait. After all, the JVP-led NPP came to power, promising to bring all racketeers to justice.

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Editorial

School dropouts

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Saturday 13th June, 2026

Prime Minister and Education Minister Dr. Harini Amarasuriya has informed Parliament that as many as 267,138 students dropped out of school between 2018 and 2024. She said so in answer to a question from Opposition MP Hesha Withanage. Pointing out that figures for the period from 2018 to 2024 had been derived from annual school census reports, using an internationally recognised methodology that takes into account student enrolment figures and dropout rates from Grade One to Grade Ten, the PM added that definitive data on school dropout were not available for the period between 2010 and 2017. This is something serious. The education authorities must have such data. Otherwise, how can they formulate policies aimed at improving student participation in school education?

The Prime Minister told Parliament that the school dropout statistics were subject to the caveat that not all students who had left schools could be considered dropouts; some of them may have moved to schools in other areas, enrolled in international schools, or migrated overseas with their families while continuing their studies.

Such cases could not be separately identified under the methodology used to compile the statistics and were, therefore, included in the overall dropout figures. This points to the need for a holistic statistical analysis of the issue of students leaving school, and steps must be taken to ensure that all relevant factors are taken into account when statistics are prepared. The education authorities should be able to say how many children actually discontinued their education.

Thankfully, UNESCO has pointed out that Sri Lanka continues to perform better than most South Asian countries in keeping children in school though thousands still leave the education system annually. Using available data for 2024, some researchers have argued that Sri Lanka’s school dropout rate is about 0.7 per cent of the government-school student population. Regional comparisons show Nepal and Sri Lanka among the stronger performers on school retention, while Bangladesh has made substantial progress and Pakistan continues to struggle with high dropout rates. India, too, has worked hard to bring down the national school dropout rate. However, the bar must be set higher, and action should be taken to prevent school dropouts completely. It is hoped that the Prime Minister, as an academic and researcher, will address this issue, and ensure that the education authorities will fulfil the need for high-quality, policy-relevant statistics.

Prime Minister Dr. Amarasuriya has said a range of factors have contributed to students leaving the formal education system. According to media reports quoting her answer in Parliament, they include personal circumstances, school-related issues, family and economic difficulties, social influence, as well as students opting for alternative educational pathways and training opportunities. Researchers inform us that mong the main causes of school dropout in Sri Lanka are poverty, poor academic achievement, lack of perceived relevance of education, family difficulties, child labour, even early marriage or pregnancy in some cases, and inequalities in educational opportunities. From a policy perspective, as researchers have pointed out, addressing these issues requires not only financial support for vulnerable families but also improvements in school quality, vocational pathways, counselling services and community support systems.

The need for a multi-pronged strategy to address the root causes of the school dropout issue cannot be overemphasised. This should figure high on the incumbent government’s agenda.

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Editorial

Probes and politics

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Friday 12th June, 2026

Government politicians are giving a running commentary of the investigations into the Easter Sunday terror attacks. They usually do so in Parliament and at media briefings to generate headlines and distract attention from burning issues.

Minister of Public Security Ananda Wijepala has told Parliament that investigators have gathered sufficient evidence to establish the involvement of former State Intelligence Service Director Major General (Retd.) Suresh Sallay, in a conspiracy linked to the 2019 carnage. Other JVP/NPP politicians also come out with what can be described as teasers about the CID’s Easter Sunday terror probe, making one wonder if the outcome of investigations is known to the government in advance.

The claim that Sallay was involved in the Easter Sunday bombings is still an unsubstantiated allegation, but going by government politicians’ claims about the investigations into the terror attacks, it is obvious that they are privy to information that the police must keep confidential to ensure the integrity of the probe. It is unbecoming of crime investigators to share such information with politicians, who use it to gain propaganda mileage.

Minister Wijepala has also claimed that Sallay declined to disclose the passwords for his personal computer and mobile phone. He described Sallay’s alleged non-cooperation as an attempt to obstruct the investigative process. Isn’t it naïve to expect a former spy chief who was aware that he was living under the microscope to store in his mobile phone or personal computer any information that could be used against him? On the other hand, in this day and age, gaining access to password-protected computers and phones is child’s play.

When prominent ruling party members declare that proving a serious charge against someone is only a matter of time, and some high-profile arrests are imminent, how can investigators led by a person at their beck and call be expected to factor in contradictory evidence that can be used to challenge his political masters’ assertions and public statements? Won’t the investigators be compelled to suppress such evidence lest they should embarrass their political leaders, provide grist for their political rivals and, most of all, fall from grace as a result? Instances abound where the police fall victim to confirmation bias, cherry-pick evidence and build cases backward in outcome-driven investigations. Initial police investigation that fitted information to the theory that the death of popular rugby player Wassim Thajudeen was due to a car crash is a case in point.

In this country, police officers do not stand up to the powers that be in the name of truth, justice and fair play; instead, they stand to attention before politicians in power. One may recall that in 2016, the then IGP Pujith Jayasundera was caught on camera, at a public meeting, answering a telephone call from someone whom he reverentially called ‘sir’ and assuring that a certain person would not be arrested. Submissiveness can become institutionally contagious. A fish is said to rot from the head down. A Yahapalana era audio clip of a telephone conversation between CID Director SSP Shani Abeysekera and Deputy Minister Ranjan Ramanayake is available in the digital space. Abeysekera is heard offering to wash pots and pans in Ramanayake’s kitchen over some matter.

There is no gainsaying that the Easter Sunday terror attacks, which claimed more than 275 lives and left many others seriously injured, must be probed thoroughly. Justice must be done to the victims. But what’s the world coming to when a government brings its own party members out of retirement, elevates them to key positions in the police and the public security sector and assigns them to conduct high-profile criminal investigations and declares suspects guilty even before they are indicted. Most of all, its leader, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, orders the detention of suspects under the Prevention of Terrorism Act and predicts judicial decisions accurately?

Political affiliations and prejudices of crime investigators have a corrosive effect on the integrity of the probes they conduct.

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