Business
Russia-Ukraine conflict: Economic implications for Sri Lanka
By Asanka Wijesinghe
The Russian invasion of Ukraine deepens the existing global economic woes – persistent supply chain bottlenecks and associated rising inflation – clouding the prospects of a smooth global economic recovery from the pandemic. The West, led by the US and the EU, swiftly imposed strict economic sanctions, targetting Russian banks, oligarchs, political leaders, and state-owned and private entities, generating additional uncertainty over the global economic outlook. The initial disunity in the West on cutting off Russia from SWIFT-a global financial telecommunication system that allows the smooth and rapid cross-border transaction of money- was resolved over the weekend. Such a move will inevitably make payments for Russian exports and imports hard. The ongoing military conflict in Europe could not have come at a worse time for Sri Lanka given its own prevailing high inflation, rising energy costs, and scarcity of foreign exchange. Against this backdrop, this article discusses the economic impact of the European conflict on Sri Lanka, the sectors that will be hit hard, and ways to mitigate the negative impact.
Global Economic Impact
Immediately after the Russian invasion on 24 February, commodity markets rallied up. The Brent spot price of a crude oil barrel reached USD 105 for the first time after 2014. Similarly, the cost of wheat futures for March 2022 in the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) exchange peaked, at its highest since mid-2008 (Figure 1). The Russian Federation and Ukraine-known as Europe’s breadbasket- are major cereal, fertiliser, critical minerals, and iron and steel exporters. Meanwhile, the Western powers were busy over the weekend in negotiations to tighten sanctions on Russia.
While the fate of Ukraine hangs in the balance, the consensus among analysts is that the Ukrainians were mounting a fierce and unexpected resistance, effectively increasing the costs for Russia. The US, EU and their allies are contributing to the military conflict by providing financial and military assistance to Ukraine while imposing sanctions on Russia to make dollar transactions difficult. Thus, the severity of the global economic impact will be determined by the scope and duration of the conflict and the effectiveness of Western sanctions.
Western countries will be keen to minimise the spillover effects of sanctions on their economies. Like Germany, the major European economies heavily depend on Russian energy, making it necessary to exempt the energy sector from sanctions. Indeed, the sanctions package unveiled by the Biden administration did not target the energy sector. As long as payments for energy-related transactions go through non-sanctioned and non-US financial institutions, an unconstrained flow of money is guaranteed. Thus, oil prices dropped with futures closing below USD 93 a barrel in New York. However, that optimism was largely fading in early trade on 28 February. The Brent price rallied over 100 dollars again while wheat, soybean, and corn futures were up. Cutting off Russia from SWIFT and imposing sanctions on the Russian Central Bank can deal a severe blow to the Russian economy in the long run. The collapsing ruble can be a harbinger of Russia’s economic collapse. A possible economic fallout will reduce Russian demand for foreign products, and if Russia cuts off natural gas to the European market, a likely outcome will be a recession.
Implications for Sri Lanka
Overall, Russia and Ukraine account for 2% of Sri Lanka’s imports and 2.2% of exports in 2020. However, both countries are vital import sources for wheat and export destinations for Sri Lanka’s black tea (Figure 2 and 3). Russia and Ukraine purchase about 18% of fermented black tea (>3kg) exported by Sri Lanka. Similarly, 45% of Sri Lanka’s wheat imports are sourced from Russia and Ukraine. In addition, more than half of Sri Lanka’s imported soybeans, sunflower oil and seeds, and peas are from Ukraine. Moreover, Russia and Ukraine are significant import sources for asbestos, semi-finished products of iron and steel, copper (cathodes), and potassium chloride for fertiliser.
Unless the Ukraine crisis is not solved immediately, the fuel and commodity prices can rally further. The inflationary pressure in the Western markets, especially in Europe due to high energy prices and supply chain bottlenecks, may reduce consumers purchasing power, lowering the demand for goods exported by Sri Lanka. Europe is a significant export destination for readymade garments, tea and spices, and seafood.
There is also a growing tendency for increased military expenditure in the long run, which might reduce the “peace dividends” for European households. For example, the German Chancellor committed 2% of GDP for defence expenditure, addressing an extraordinary session of Bundestag. Replacing consumerism with militarism will adversely affect countries like Sri Lanka that depend on the European export market. In addition, a prolonged crisis may impede Sri Lanka’s ability to purchase necessary raw materials like fertiliser. Importantly, Sri Lanka’s exposure to the situation is mainly through linkages to the commodity and European export markets rather than direct exposure to the two countries involved in the conflict.
Mitigation
Sri Lanka should focus on safeguarding access to vital raw materials and food commodities. Globally, responding to the crisis, countries are stockpiling grain and exploring alternative ways to do business with Russia in purchasing raw materials. Sri Lanka has limited options to mitigate the impact on already deteriorating food security conditions and access to raw materials. As wheat and rice are substitutes, high wheat prices may increase the demand for rice.
Thus, it is necessary to remove input shortages like fertiliser to ensure domestic production is adequate. Due to the current foreign exchange crisis, Sri Lanka’s ability to effectively face such shocks is constrained. Thus, the urgent priority is to resolve the current foreign exchange crisis to regain the ability to trade swiftly. Achieving debt sustainability and securing dollar inflows from multilateral institutes might be the options at Sri Lanka’s disposal. Then, entering forward contracts for raw materials and fuel and negotiations with friendly countries for food on predetermined prices are possibilities.
Link to Talking Economics blog:
Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Economic Implications for Sri Lanka
Asanka Wijesinghe is a Research Fellow at IPS with research interests in macroeconomic policy, international trade, labour and health economics. He holds a BSc in Agricultural Technology and Management from the University of Peradeniya, an MS in Agribusiness and Applied Economics from North Dakota State University, and an MS and PhD in Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics from The Ohio State University. (Talk with Asanka – asanka@ips.lk)
Business
Sri Lanka’s tourism paradox: More visitors, less money
Sri Lanka’s tourism industry is posting arrival numbers that many destinations would envy, yet it is increasingly troubled by a disconcerting trend: the country is welcoming record numbers of visitors, but tourism earnings are struggling to keep pace.
In May, Sri Lanka recorded its highest-ever monthly increase in tourist arrivals, welcoming 145,745 visitors, a 10% rise from a year earlier. However, tourism revenue fell 5.1% year-on-year to US$155.7 million, according to official data. For the first five months of 2026, earnings declined 12% to US$1.36 billion, despite continued growth in arrivals.
“These figures highlight a growing challenge for a country that depends heavily on tourism as a source of foreign exchange: attracting more tourists is no longer enough. The bigger question is how much they spend once they arrive,” a leading hotelier told The Island Financial Review.
“After being battered by the 2019 Easter Sunday attacks, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2022 economic crisis, Sri Lanka recorded a historic 2.36 million visitors in 2025. Authorities are now targeting 3 million arrivals in 2026. But beneath those anticipated numbers lies a more complicated story,” he said.
Elaborating further, he noted: “Tourism revenue reached roughly US$3.2 billion in 2025; only marginally higher than the previous year, despite a 15% jump in arrivals. More tellingly, earnings remain significantly below the levels achieved in 2018, when visitor numbers were comparable. So, the decline in average tourist spending has become impossible to ignore.”
According to official surveys, average daily tourist expenditure has been revised downward to approximately US$148 per day, compared with previous estimates exceeding US$170.
Referring to this trend, he added: “Destinations such as the Maldives attract substantially higher per-visitor spending through luxury tourism, premium experiences, and high-end accommodation. The debate should increasingly revolve around whether Sri Lanka is pursuing the right tourism model.”
For years, the country focused on boosting arrival numbers through aggressive marketing campaigns, Instagram influencer partnerships, and social media promotions. As a result, Sri Lanka may now be attracting too many budget-conscious travellers while failing to draw those seeking immersive, higher-value experiences rooted in the nation’s natural and cultural assets. “Are we grappling with the tension between ‘high-volume tourism’ and ‘high-value tourism’?” he asked. “Sri Lanka must encourage longer stays, diversify experiences beyond beaches and cultural sites, and develop premium offerings in wellness, eco-tourism, adventure, luxury rail, culinary, and wildlife sectors if it hopes to increase per-visitor spending.”
An inbound travel operator concurred, stating that the future should depend less on bringing in more people and more on attracting the right mix of travellers.
Against this backdrop, Sri Lanka appears to be intensifying efforts in key source markets. One of the most notable initiatives took place recently in Moscow, where Deputy Tourism Minister Prof. Ruwan Ranasinghe led a delegation to the sixth “Let’s Travel International Tourism Forum.” Discussions with Russian officials focused on direct flights, simplified visa procedures, destination promotion, and stronger bilateral tourism cooperation.
Russian travellers have become increasingly important to Sri Lanka’s tourism sector. Russia consistently ranks among the island’s top source markets, alongside India and the United Kingdom. In early 2026 alone, tens of thousands of Russian visitors arrived in Sri Lanka, underscoring the market’s growing significance. The Moscow forum also signalled a broader strategy: expanding beyond traditional hubs and reaching travellers across multiple Russian regions.
“The island’s beaches, wildlife reserves, ancient cities, tea-country landscapes, and wellness traditions already provide a strong foundation, and Sri Lanka has largely solved the problem of attracting visitors. Its next challenge is more difficult: transforming a popular destination into a high-value one. That will require investment in infrastructure, premium tourism products, transport connectivity, destination management, and visitor experiences that encourage travellers to spend more and stay longer,” the inbound operator said.
Tourism Minister Vijitha Herath recently told parliament that the current revenue figures reflect more accurate measurement methodologies rather than a collapse in spending. Referring to this, the hotelier said,” While that may be a technically valid assertion, it does little to mask a far more pressing reality: Sri Lanka is no longer attracting the high-spending travellers it once did. The data, when viewed alongside declining average daily expenditure and stagnant overall earnings, points to a structural shift in the country’s visitor profile, one that favours volume over value. Until Sri Lanka recalibrates its tourism strategy to prioritise quality over quantity, it risks becoming a destination that everyone visits but few truly invest in.”
By Sanath Nanayakkare
Business
Climate resilience now central to Sri Lanka’s economic future, investors told
Climate resilience is no longer an environmental concern on the periphery of policymaking but a critical economic imperative that will determine Sri Lanka’s future competitiveness, export performance, investment attractiveness and long-term growth prospects, leading development agencies and private-sector leaders warned at a high-level forum titled Sri Lanka Climate Summit in Colombo recently.
With climate shocks becoming increasingly frequent and costly, experts said that Sri Lanka must urgently strengthen climate-resilient infrastructure, reform key utility sectors, modernise its data systems and improve access to global climate financing if it hopes to sustain economic recovery and attract investment.
The discussion brought together representatives from multilateral institutions, development agencies and the private sector, who argued that climate adaptation should be viewed not as a financial burden but as one of the largest economic opportunities available to emerging economies.
Addressing the forum, Asian Development Bank (ADB) Country Director for Sri Lanka, Shannon Cowlin, said countries with stronger economic fundamentals are better positioned to absorb climate shocks and recover faster.
“Climate resilience is not only about infrastructure. It is also about macroeconomic resilience. Countries that maintain sound economic management can respond more effectively when disasters occur,” she said.
Referring to Sri Lanka’s recent response to Cyclone Ditwa, Cowlin noted that the country’s economic reforms and recovery programme had significantly improved its ability to manage the disaster compared with previous years.
The ADB highlighted the importance of ongoing reforms in the energy and water sectors, particularly efforts to establish cost-reflective tariffs that would enable utilities to maintain and upgrade critical infrastructure.
“We cannot expect financially distressed utilities to invest adequately in resilience,” she cautioned.
The bank is currently preparing emergency assistance financing to support post-cyclone recovery efforts while embedding internationally recognised “Build Back Better” principles into reconstruction programmes.
Rather than merely restoring damaged assets, future investments will focus on strengthening roads, drainage systems and other public infrastructure to withstand increasingly severe weather events.
Dilmah chairman and Chief Executive Officer Dilhan Fernando warned that climate change represents a direct threat to Sri Lanka’s export competitiveness, especially for premium products such as Ceylon Tea and Ceylon Cinnamon.
“Adaptation is simply another word for survival,” Fernando said.
He observed that rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns and increasingly unpredictable weather events are beginning to challenge the environmental conditions that have historically given Sri Lankan agricultural products their global reputation.
“The planet has already warmed by more than 1.3 degrees Celsius. Scientists project warming levels approaching three degrees, which would create environmental conditions not experienced for millions of years, he said.
Fernando warned that climate pressures could significantly affect both production volumes and product quality in the tea sector.
“We speak about achieving 400 million kilograms of tea production. Given the climate extremes we are witnessing today, we need to question whether such targets remain realistic in the long term,” he said.
He also highlighted a growing commercial challenge emerging from international markets.
The European Union’s new sustainability and supply-chain regulations are expected to impose stricter environmental compliance requirements on exporters, potentially affecting market access for companies unable to demonstrate sustainable production practices.
“These developments are not simply regulatory requirements. They represent a structural transformation in global trade and consumer expectations,” Fernando said.
However, he argued that businesses should approach climate adaptation as a strategic growth opportunity rather than a compliance exercise.
By Ifham Nizam
Business
Sri Lanka Insurance Corporation General Limited honoured
Sri Lanka Insurance Corporation General Limited (SLICGL), the nation’s trusted leader in general insurance, has been recognised as Sri Lanka’s No. 1 Most Loved General Insurance Brand in 2026.
The prestigious honour, awarded by LMD – The Voice of Business, demonstrates the deep trust, confidence, and lasting relationships customers continue to place in SLICGL. It is clear evidence of the company’s continued commitment to service excellence, innovation, and reliability in protecting lives and businesses throughout the country.
As SLICGL continues to command the industry, it remains dedicated to protecting lives, supporting communities, and delivering trusted insurance solutions nationwide. The achievement also celebrates the dedication of employees, sales teams, business partners, and stakeholders whose collective efforts have strengthened the brand and nurtured long‑term customer relationships.
The recognition reinforces SLICGL’s position as the country’s leading force in the insurance sector, motivating the organisation to enhance products, services, and customer experiences, maintaining the highest standards for all touchpoints.
Today, the bond thrives on consistent delivery. SLICGL remains the undisputed market leader in Sri Lanka’s general insurance industry, with a 20.2% market share and a Gross Written Premium of Rs. 30.3 billion in 2025. During the year, the company settled Rs. 12.3 billion in insurance claims and benefits, including in the aftermath of Cyclone Ditwah, standing by policyholders when it mattered most. Its motor solutions arm, Motor Plus, retained its place as the country’s number one motor insurer.
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