Features

Of lives and livelihoods

Published

5 years ago

2021/05/21

by Usvatte-aratchi

We seem to face a complicated set of problems in handling the epidemic Covid-19 in our country. The infection rate is well above 1. The number identified to have been infected during the last few days has been counting up to 2,000. That is alarmingly high. Consequent upon the rapid rise in infections, there are four tightening bottlenecks: there is an emerging scarcity of hospital beds; the number of acute-care-beds is well short of probable requirements; healthcare personnel are exhausted and short in supply; and the supply and distribution of clinical oxygen may dangerously fall well short of the number of patients distributed over the island that need such care. That is when the capacity of the system will be tested and the current death rate of those being infected will rise rapidly from the present 0.65 per hundred of the infected. The conversion of existing hospitals to accommodate corona patients and the construction of field hospitals may solve the first problem. It is well to remember that the conversion of existing hospitals to accommodate corona patients will be at the expense of beds for non-corona-virus patients.

The scarcity of acute care beds can be very dangerous and there is no alternative to emergency purchase of equipment, when other countries themselves may find it difficult to release such equipment. As with hospital beds, the diversion of health care personnel to treat corona patients will be at cost to other patients. Eventually, when other morbidities are counted, departures from the normal will tell its own tale. Health care personnel from physicians to those that disinfect premises have worked with tremendous dedication and high efficiency. The availability of such persons may be the most strictly binding constraint to saving lives. We have been re-assured that the two factories that produce clinical oxygen have capacity to increase production fast enough to avoid shortages. Distribution to hospitals, as their locations spread wide, may pose problems. All these exigencies arose because we failed to stem the tide of invading infections. We have had ample time to prevent the emergence of these exigencies. Incompetence and complacency among policy makers seem to have conspired to put the population at severe risks and to their unfortunate consequences. Our government did well in early 2020 to lockdown the country, close boundaries and keep the invasion at bay. That may have engendered a sense of undue complacency.

The corona-19 infection is far more widespread than the Spanish flu that ravaged most parts of the world 1919-1920. Although the numbers are not beyond dispute, the best judgement is that some 3.5 percent of those infected died in that epidemic. That wider spread of the epidemic in 2020-21 is explained by the increased mobility of people and goods now compared to that which prevailed 100 years ago. With advances in medical care, the fast discovery of effective vaccines and more effective organization, we should do much better this time round. With nearly 18 months from the beginning of the epidemic in China, there was a wealth of experience that we, in this country, could have learned from. The first experience in fighting the epidemic was in Wuhan, a city of about 11 million people in Hubei Province with some 60 million people.

The Chinese authorities locked down the city completely for more than six weeks. The lockdown was strict with no political ignoramuses countermanding the restrictions imposed by the officials, supported, of course, by CCP. Gates to some apartment buildings were barred from outside with strips of steel. When the epidemic appeared further east, the same prescription was administered. China was the first to be infected and the first to see its back, the latter a truly remarkable achievement with the crowded eastern seaboard. These methods may not be replicable in other societies but variants were applied in other parts of the world. Vietnam closed its long border with China very early. It closed its airs pace for flights from southern China. It locked down the country effectively. The government spoke to the people frequently. Vietnam has had for some decades a commendable public health system (see its infant mortality and maternal mortality figures for the 1980s). New Zealand and Australia stand out as success stories. New Zealand closed its air space to those outside and imposed a lockdown inside the country. Australia down communities, even large cities like Melbourne, as the threat of widespread infection appeared. Australia had gone so far as to keep out their own citizens, when they wished to return from a dangerously infected land.

There is both thought about the policy and determination in its execution. Now neither New Zealand nor Australia runs the risk of runaway infection. Among other countries, some expected the epidemic to run out if steam when it had infected a large enough number in the population (herd immunity). Among those were Sweden, US with Donald Trump as president, and Brazil with seemingly idiosyncratic Jair Bolsonaro as president. Sweden soon realized the implausibility of its expectation and they still suffer very high infection rates. US had to await the arrival of Joseph Biden as president, who took the advice of scientists and physicians, to galvanise a program of vigorous vaccination and has now 200 million persons fully or partially vaccinated. Britain, after a period of strict lockdown has used its excellent NHS to vaccinate about 67% of its population. The outstanding success is that small country Israel, which is so free of the virus now, that they shake hands casually.

The information below from Johns Hopkins (copied from The Economist) shows you success in vaccination in several countries up to May 6, 2021 . The small population of Bhutan (Bho tan, land’s end), up in the tail end of Himalayas, as well as atolls Maldives have wisely vaccinated their populations. Maldives is especially instructive to us because of the importance of tourism in its economy. In contrast, the massive population of India has been reeling under the weight of the irresistible spread of the infection. The attitude of the government with a population not alive to the true nature of the infection has left that population helpless against the onslaught. Even the rich states of Gujerat and Maharashtra have been hotbeds of infection.

The unregulated celebration of Kumbh mela where millions of devotees assemble in the small town Hardwar for several days provided the ideal fertile ground where SARS–Cov-2 thrived. The enthusiasm of both Trinamool and BJP to win the election in Bengal caused the gathering of large crowds in various parts of that densely populated state. The spread of the infection in Bengal is yet to be seen. These lackadaisical attitudes of the BJP government have made India one of the most severely infected countries in the world.

We have to take account of inadequate public health in the country, despite the first rate AIIMS hospitals in cities. India has some of the largest vaccine producing facilities in Maharashtra. Yet, there has been no plan for vigorous vaccination of the population, formidable as that task will be. In Sri Lanka no more than 5% of the population has been vaccinated to date.

(see the image)

Sri Lanka has had excellent public health services for decades. The elimination of childhood diseases and infectious disease bear witness to their excellence. Derivative evidence is the low infant mortality rate, the low maternal mortality rate and the consequent high average expectation of life at birth.

The public health services have been constructed with the commitment of wise and farseeing government leaders who provided the physical facilities and the dedication and commitment of physicians and support staff, on wages unattractive in most countries. In this compact land, communications are very good by most standards, now vastly improved with highspeed motorways. To an impartial observer there are long standing reasons why the covid epidemic should not take hold here. But alas, it has.

It has because the government opened airports and new mutations of SARS-CoV-2 marched in the company of visa holders. The new mutations evidently transfer themselves from one person to another, faster than the ones that prevailed locally. The government decided that in the race between lives and livelihoods that livelihoods are what mattered more than lives. The argument, which runs as follows, is not without merit. Covid-2019 kills. But so does the scarcity of livelihoods. It is more important to maintain livelihoods than prevent infections. Therefore, do not lockdown the country but lockdown localities selectively; the selection depending on the incidence of infections in the locality. By the time a locality is locked down, it has high infection; the community has been wounded and then it is locked down to lick its wounds, so to say. In the meanwhile, people from other parts of the country had been infected by people who now ae sequestrated. The three districts in the western province, for several days now, have contributed more than half the high number of infections in the country. Selective lock down of localities have not abated the rate of infection either in those districts or elsewhere. More intensive interaction among people in these districts contributes to the growth of infections. Consequently, it is more sensible to strictly lock down the country, as Wuhan and Hubei were locked down for nearly two months. More intense infection and high number of deaths compel people to lock themselves down. The evidence is in the cancellation of passenger trains by CGR and buses idling in depots for lack of passengers. In Colombo itself, roads are almost empty. There is no evidence anywhere that the denial of livelihoods consequent upon such lock down killed any large numbers. Nor is there evidence yet, that they contributed to stunting and wasting in children. Government must spend to maintain minimum standards of living during the lockdown. Yes, doing so will reduce the value of the rupee both internally and externally but that is the way that the population at large rather than those in low income groups alone bear the burden of the policies. That is also the way that the rampant ravage of the infection can be brought under control.

The respite gained by the lockdown must be used to vaccinate some 65%-70% of the population. The development of vaccines to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is a triumph of modern science, medical technology and the strength of pharmaceutical companies and other organisations. Governments which foresaw the use of vaccinations in controlling the infection contracted with providers to supply them with vaccinations. Some either did not foresee that need, could not find the resources to contract with suppliers or were pre-occupied with other concerns. We fall into the second category and pay a price, in both in lives and in livelihoods for our failure to procure vaccines. We have seen the effectiveness of vaccination in checking the spread of the infection in US, Britain and Israel and other countries. We have also seen the failure of US with Donald Trump, Brazil with Bolsonaro and India with Modi to vaccinate their people resulting large scale infection and the loss of lives. When the number of deaths rises to 7 million from the present 3.5 million, the world will have lost 1 per 1,000 of its population; a tremendous cost. Our government needs to sit back and re-consider its own policies. Silly heroic stands of ‘ I do not change my mind’ will do us all in.

From that point of view, the debate on the epidemic in Parliament on April 6, was a grave disappointment. Neither the Opposition nor the government gained any stature in the course of the debate. The Opposition did not present an analysis of the problems facing the country and propose alternative policies to solve them and their own preferred choice. The government did not articulate its policies and seek justification for them. A minister of government, who is also a professor of medicine, and who wound up the debate for the government, at the end of a combative response, issued a report card with a load of F’s to the Opposition. That debate in Parliament, as is usual, generated ‘a foul and pestilent congregation of vapours’. The public of this country deserve better.

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Features

Trump’s tariffs, AKD’s gazette and Sri Lanka’s diplomatic slumber

Published

1 day ago

2026/07/17

Thilina Walpola

“We are rather respectable in Colombo. We go to bed fairly early, and we remain there till morning. “

According to Sri Lanka’s diplomatic folklore, the late S.W. R. D. Bandaranaike uttered these words while explaining the reasons for Sri Lanka’s abstention on the UN resolution condemning the Soviet invasion of Hungary. Apparently, SWRD’s foreign ministry officials were asleep at home when the diplomatic cable seeking instructions was received from New York. In those days, there were no cell phones, Internet, or even fax or telex machines. The diplomatic cables were sent through post offices. Decoding them was a slow and time-consuming process. Thus, the government could not provide appropriate instructions to our mission in New York in time, and the Sri Lankan delegation abstained on that sensitive UN vote.

Sri Lanka’s Absence from Section 301 Consultations

But then, how does one explain Sri Lanka’s absence from the crucial bilateral consultation held in Washington by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) during March-April on “Forced Labour” under the Section 301 of the US Trade Act of 1974? Didn’t our foreign and trade ministries send appropriate instructions to Washington in time? Even if the instructions from the foreign ministry were transmitted to our embassy in Washington by pigeon carriers, there was enough time for Sri Lanka to participate in those meetings.

In March, the USTR initiated these 301 investigations on 60 trading partners, and invited all of them for confidential consultations. Out of the 60, 46 participated in these consultations. Sri Lanka was not one of them. Other countries that didn’t participate in these consultations included China, Russia, and Venezuela! In addition to that, the Section 301 Committee conducted a public hearing with interested parties on April 28 and 29. Washington-based diplomats, representatives from few trade ministries as well as representatives from many foreign trade associations and chambers participated in these hearings. Sri Lanka was once again conspicuously absent.

As a result, when the USTR published the proposed forced labour tariffs on June 2nd, Sri Lanka ended up with a 12.5% duty. Pakistani and Indonesian diplomats participated in these consultations and took appropriate follow-up measures, and managed to enter the 10% duty category. As even a threat of a modest tariff hike could disrupt supply chains and reduce competitiveness, particularly in an industry such as garments, I discussed this issue on 15 June and underscored the importance of Sri Lanka’s participation at the next hearing, which was scheduled to be held from July 7th .

Awakening from Diplomatic Slumber and AKD’s Gazette

Fortunately, Sri Lanka finally awoke from weeks of diplomatic slumber, and Ambassador Mahinda Samarasinghe participated in the public hearing on 9 July, and promised, “…. · We have agreed to the text in our negotiations with the USTR on forced labour, …. The gazette as we speak is being printed and I’m getting the gazette tomorrow morning, and the gazette will be shared with USTR as I get it“.

As promised, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake issued a gazette on 10 July banning the imports of goods produced by forced labour. These new regulations are very similar to what Pakistan and Indonesia enacted in April, after their consultations with USTR in March. Why couldn’t we do it in April? Why did we wait till the very last minute?

Challenges ahead

“War is too important to be left to generals alone,” is a famous saying attributed to former French Premier Georges Clemenceau. Similarly, monitoring our main markets is too important to be left to diplomats alone. The United States is the largest single-country market for Sri Lanka. Therefore, Sri Lankan trade chambers and associations should become more proactive in these markets and participate in these events. For example, the chairman of the Pakistani apparel exporters association participated in the April hearings. Similarly, representatives from the Indian Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, the Confederation of Indian Industry, and Reliance Industries also participated in July hearings. At an event where each speaker is given only five minutes (strictly enforced), having a number of speakers from a country is an advantage. The presence of industry representatives in these kinds of events also help them understand the market dynamics and the future challenges. This is important, particularly because there will be many more challenges with Trump’s tariffs.

With the gazette issued on 10 July, Sri Lanka has imposed a prohibition on the importation of goods produced with forced labour. Now, the challenge will be to effectively enforce the prohibition. And what are the goods produced with forced labour? The USTR list only focuses on aluminum, cotton, electronics, lithium-ion batteries, rice, and tobacco. However, according to the U.S. Department of Labour, the list is much longer. Hence, this list may change continuously during the next two years and tariffs may fluctuate once again.

So, this is definitely not the time to slumber.

(The writer, a retired public servant, can be reached at senadhiragomi@gmail.com)

by Gomi Senadhira ✍️

Features

Tales of Mystery and Suspense 10 Casino for Sale

Published

1 day ago

2026/07/17

Thilina Walpola

After the overwhelming grotesquerie of J K Rowling’s latest Cormoran Strike novel (written, I should have noted, as the others were, under the pseudonym Robert Galbraith), I thought I should return to the world of fun, and also a much shorter description since this thriller moves quickly without the layers of detail that Rowling engages in.

I then move to the second comic thriller by Caryl Brahms and S J Simon. This, their second story to feature Vladimir Stroganoff and Adam Quill, was Casino for Sale, as lunatic a romp as the first, though without the emphasis on the ballet that characterized A Bullet in the Ballet.

This one begins with the impresario Stroganoff buying a casino cheap from Baron Sam de Rabinovich, only to find that it was a rundown place, not the grand casino of La Bazouche, a resort on the Frenc+h Riviera, as he had initially thought. The grand one belonged to Lord Buttonhooke, and Stroganoff could not compete, until he thought of bringing the Ballet Stroganoff to the casino – which of course leads to Buttonhooke deciding to have ballet performances in his Casino too.

Stroganoff invites Quill to visit him, which Quill decides to do since he has left Scotland Yard, having come into a legacy. No one believes this, and he has to face questions as to what he did to have been sacked, with sympathy for having been found out.

Caryl and Simon

The day he arrives in La Bazouche there is a murder, of a vitriolic critic called Citrolo, in Stroganoff’s office. He had been going to write a damning review of the opening night of the ballet and Stroganoff, when he realizes Citrolo cannot be swayed, drugs him and dictates the review himself to the papers. He leaves Citrolo sleeping and finds him shot the next morning, whereupon he decides to muddy the waters and leave a suicide note and lots of other murder weapons. So much overkill, as it were, of course ensures that he is arrested.

But the excitable French detective who makes the arrest follows up his suggestion that Buttonhooke was also involved, and so the two casino owners find themselves in cells next door to each other, with the detective Gustave quite happy to provide creature comforts for a fee.

Quill decides he must investigate, and finds Gustave most cooperative, since he has a laid back attitude to work. So it is Quill that finds a notebook which makes it clear Citrolo is an accomplished blackmailer, and that there are lots of possible murderers, including Stroganoff’s croupier, who was crooked, Rabinovich, who was now working for Buttonhooke, a confidence trickster called Kurt Kukumber, whose prospectus for a dud gold mine was found in the office and Prince Alexis Artishok who was engaged in a deal to buy diamonds from the ballerina Dyra Dyrakova.

Stroganoff had been trying to get Dyrakova to dance for him, but having done so previously she had refused. But then to Stroganoff’s chagrin she agreed to dance for Buttonhooke. The clearly crooked Artishok had told Buttonhooke’s mistress Sadie Souse, who was not very bright, that Dyrakova possessed diamonds she was willing to sell cheap, and Sadie was determined to have them.

Quill meanwhile finds out that there was a secret passage to Stroganoff’s office, the obvious solution to what had begun as a locked room mystery, and that this was known by almost everyone apart from Stroganoff himself. And then Rabinovich is murdered, just after Gustave had released his two original suspects, leading him to blame Quill for having insisted on that and thus allowing them to kill again.

Soon afterwards Dyrakova arrives, and the town is full of posters announcing that she will appear in the casinos, elaborate posters for either one, since Stroganoff is determined that she will dance for him, and if she does not come willingly, he has devised a scheme to make her do so unwillingly. So, though Buttonhooke has her taken off to his yacht immediately she arrives at the station, Quill along with Arenskaya gets her into a launch and to Stroganoff’s casino, where she performs to tumultuous applause, not knowing for whom she is dancing.

When Quill asked her about the diamonds, she said she had sold them long ago, and that gave Quill the solution to the mystery. Rabinovich had known about this, and Artishok had killed him to prevent Sadie learning it from him, he had killed Citrolo who had recognized him for an accomplished card sharper, not a Russian prince at all. But before he is arrested, he gets away in a boat, and the police launch that pursues him is on the point of catching him up when it runs out of petrol.

Again, lots of excitement, and entertaining references – Gustave grows marrows – and if not quite as brilliant as its predecessor, Casino was certainly a delightful read.

Features

The challenge of being positive about SAARC

Published

2 days ago

2026/07/16

Sahan Weerasooriya

The RCSS forum addressed by SAARC Secretary General Ambassador Md. Golam Sarwar in progress. (Pic courtesy RCSS)

It was a few years back that a former President of Sri Lanka took it on himself to pronounce SAARC ‘dead’. Since then there have been other sections of Sri Lankan opinion that have joined the critics of SAARC and taken the solemn stance that SAARC has indeed died what may be called a natural death.

Their fatalism is understandable. SAARC has failed to meet at heads of government or state level for the past several years to take the SAARC process notably forward. Regional cooperation has more or less been only an appealing idea. No substantive concrete projects have taken off to make the idea a hard reality. ‘Inner paralysis’ seems to be SAARC’s lot. Hence the fatalism in these circles.

However, being one of the worst cash-strapped regions of the world and a teemingly populated one with people virtually left to their devices, what choices do the ‘SAARC Eight’ have other than to try their best to band together and continue with their cooperation efforts, however small they may be?

There is no escaping the mounting debt trap for many of these countries and bankrupt Sri Lanka is a glaring example, but ‘throwing in the towel’ and abandoning themselves entirely to the diktats of the strongest economies and their agencies will prove a ‘living death’ for many countries in the SAARC fold.

The gains may be meagre but giving-up on SAARC cooperation in full would prove self-defeating for the organization and South Asia. Right now, the collective intention ought to be to salvage what the region could from the tenuous cooperative efforts. Moreover, such initiatives could go some distance to generate a degree of goodwill among the Eight and help in sustaining a dialogue process.

Given this backdrop it proved ‘a stich in time’ for the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies (RCSS), Colombo, to recently host the SAARC Secretary General Ambassador Md. Golam Sarwar to a round table discussion on the unifying potential of SAARC and its future possibilities, besides other related issue areas.

Held on June 24th and moderated by RCSS Executive Director and former ambassador Ravinatha Aryasinha, the forum brought together a vibrant, wide ranging audience comprising academicians, diplomats, senior public servants, civil society activists and many others. Following the presentation by Ambassador Golam Sarwar titled, ‘Reigniting SAARC: Achievements, Challenges and the Way Ahead’, a lively Q&A followed.

The above forum could be described as an act of lighting the proverbial ‘candle’ rather than ‘cursing the darkness.’ It surely is a ‘darkness’ that could be seen as daunting considering that the region’s pivotal powers, India and Pakistan, are failing to act in a spirit of accord but are engaged in bitter finger-pointing on a number of questions of vital importance to SAARC.

On the other hand, what is the rest of the region doing to bring the above sides together? It is disappointing that to date the rest of SAARC has failed to launch a major diplomatic drive to bring peace between the feuding regional heavyweights. It needs to act without delay and establish its earnestness and this effort would need to prove SAARC’s staying power in the unfolding months and even years.

In assessing SAARC’s seeming failure local opinion in particular has failed to factor in what could be described as weak leadership. Since Sheikh Mujibur Rahman of Bangladesh, the founding father of SAARC, the region has failed to produce a visionary leader who could advance the SAARC cause with charisma and drive.

Among other reasons, weak leadership accounts considerably for the faltering and stuttering status, as it were, of SAARC. Badly needed are leaders who could go the extra mile, think less of narrow national interests and work diligently towards the collective well being of the region but SAARC’s millions of ordinary people have been made to wait in vain for leaders of such stature. Instead, they have been burdened with politicians who seem to be relishing the apparently moribund state of SAARC.

Looking back, it could be said that it was the dynamic leadership factor that led to the launching of the Non-Aligned Movement and for its sustenance for a few decades. True, it could be seen in some quarters that NAM is no more, but as in the case of SAARC, the former too has been unfortunate to be burdened over the years with politicians who lack the vision and drive to unflaggingly advance the fortunes of the South. NAM and SAARC lack the dynamism and vision of leaders of the stature of Jawaharlal Nehru, for example, to give them the required guidance and intellectual depth.

The reasons are complex for there not being among us currently political leaders with the vision and the steadfast commitment to advance the legitimate interests of the South. However, it could be stated with conviction that the majority of Southern leaders have too easily caved in to the demands of the global North and its financial agencies.

These leaders have failed to see, for instance, that the largely market economy oriented Northern governments would not view with favour a centrist economic model that attaches priority to the interests of the dis-empowered publics of the South. This realization ought to have dawned on the current government in Sri Lanka, for instance, some while ago but it has no choice but to abide by IMF dictates since economic survival at present is unthinkable without the latter’s succour.

Accordingly for SAARC this should be the time for some soul-searching. Priority needs to be attached to ending the feuding between India and Pakistan since at present the material fortunes of the region hinge largely on these regional giants giving peaceful relations among them a try. This is no easy challenge to meet but some daring, visionary diplomacy needs to take hold among the rest of SAARC.

There is some sense in SAARC bringing the peoples of the region together through programs that address their best collective interests. A meeting of minds among SAARC nations could enable SAARC and its agencies to build a region-wide people’s movement for progressive political and economic change that could in turn lead to the region’s political leaders sensitizing themselves more to the neglected needs of their publics.

However, the time is ‘now’ for the initiation of these progressive changes and the voice of SAARC well wishers would need to drown out those of their critics.