Features
Lanka is bankrupt because of the Rajapaksas, says Chandrika Kumaratunga
By Meera Srinivasan
Sri Lanka’s economic crisis is a consequence of the corruption over two Rajapaksa regimes, said former President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga, admitting she is “thrilled” by the aragalaya or people’s movement that overthrew them recently.
“When our systems have crashed and been destroyed consciously, how do you change things…the only way to change is through a socio-political upheaval, a revolution,” she told The Hindu, in an interview on the dramatic changes that Sri Lanka witnessed in recent months, amid a crippling economic crisis.
In her view, the island nation had reached the stage where, with two Rajapaksa regimes, “everything that was bad and hateful was stabilised in power…today we are bankrupt only because of the corruption of the [Rajapaksa] family and their acolytes,” said the two-term President and survivor of an attempted assassination by the LTTE.
Observing that she would “wait and watch” how President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who relies on the Rajapaksas’ party in parliament, fares, Ms. Kumaratunga contended that his government must opt for an economic model that combines a social welfarist model with a liberal economic logic.
While Colombo might have challenging foreign policy choices ahead, especially while negotiating external assistance, the government must opt for a “dynamic non-alignment” policy, she noted, accusing the Rajapaksa administrations of “veering too much towards one country”.
“I am personally very thankful that India has come in, giving us all this aid when they could have stood back and waited because they were not very happy with the Rajapaksa government’s policies,” she said.
For over 15 years now, former two-term President of Sri Lanka Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga has stayed out of active politics. She re-emerged as a key player in the formation of the Yahapalanaya [good governance] coalition — of Maithripala Sirisena and Ranil Wickremesinghe — in 2015, only to witness the Sri Lanka Freedom Party of the Bandaranaike clan collapse after the Rajapaksas carved out their own party from it. Speaking to The Hindu at her Colombo residence recently, Ms. Kumaratunga reflects on the staggering developments in Sri Lanka over the last few months, and the way forward for the country’s political and economic progress.
Excerpts…
Q; As a senior political leader in Sri Lanka, what are your thoughts on the developments over the last few months – the Janatha Aragalaya (people’s struggle), the dramatic ousting of the Rajapaksas, the and the political changes since.
A; To start with, I can say I am thrilled by the Aragalaya. Not the violence that was perpetrated by the extremist minority there, but the whole concept of the Aragalaya, the way it started, and the vision of the good people leading it.
Because the country had reached the stage where, with two Rajapaksa regimes, everything that was bad and hateful was stabilised in power. Like corruption.
Today we are bankrupt only because of the corruption of the [Rajapaksa] family and their acolytes. There was no proper governance, no vision for the countryexcept to enrich themselves. They consciously turned everybody into crooks, be it the ministers, MPs, provincial council members, those in local government, as well as public servants, so that they could carry on robbing with no objections. Corruption had seeped from the top, right to the bottom, Vertically, horizontally, it had spread everywhere, whether it was in the public sector or private sector.
When our systems have crashed and been destroyed consciously, how do you change things? Even if you go for elections, the same lot of crooks get elected like they have for over 20 years. Then, the only way to change is through a socio-political upheaval, a revolution.For instance, the French Republic and the USA came into being by effecting radical change through revolutions, so with many other countries.
What about the aragalaya did you find striking?
What was really exciting and positive about the Aragalaya was that they had a vision. They were not just saying we want to chase out the Rajapaksas. They said this is not enough, we want an honest government, transparent governance, and that the robbers be brought to book. They issued a 10-point programme, which was quite good even if it needed further work, but the general direction of that programme was excellent.
I met a group of Aragalaya youth at a time they were chasing other political leaders out, as they sent me a message saying they wished to meet me.I jumped at their request. I presented my proposals to them.
I told them that I fully agree that all 225 MPs must go and a new government with new faces and the right kind of vision must come to power. I said that I have been saying the same thing for more than four years, having failed to change much under the Yahapalanaya government. However, I explained to them that the present Constitution does not permit anyone other than members of parliament to be appointed to the cabinet. I suggested an interim arrangement where the few good MPs from all political parties be selected to form a cabinet whilst a Council of State comprised of representatives from major civil society organisations, private sector professionals, academics, major NGOs as well as respected individuals,be created to review the work of the government.
40% of the total number should from among the youth, with a further 40% being women. All major policies and laws of the government would first be reviewed by this Council before implementation. The proposed constitutional amendments would include this concept.
They had taken on board my proposal in their 10-point programme and even gave it a much better name, calling it the ‘People’s Council’. They had a vision, they were brilliantly well organised, and they were honest about contributions coming in.
At least two surveys done at that time indicated that 90 % of our people supported them. I don’t know anybody who did not go to Galle Face [agitation site at Colombo’s sea front] except politicians like us who were scared to go.
The entire political stage has been swept clean by the Aragalaya. Now it remains for the people to collectively unite and formulate the contours of the new regime with new systems and procedures. I don’t believe for a moment that representatives of the old system, strongly entrenched in the destructive vision, attitudes, and practices of the regime that has been rejected by the vast majority of Sri Lankans, will ever wish or be able to effect any change in the system; the system that brought them to power and gave them unlimited possibilities of robbing the country dry, while employing state terror against anyone who challenged them.
I would say that the 225 MPs are hanging on by force. They do not have the people’s mandate anymore.Some people are idiotically arguing that they were elected for five years and that they should not be sent home early. They were elected by the people, and because those people were not given the opportunity to express their views at an election,they have expressed it in a democratic, peaceful manner. If there is no election, how are they supposed to voice their views if they don’t want to suffer the ignominy of a bad government? So, they expressed their views at Galle Face. I don’t agree with the violence, I am talking about the rest of it.
By that you mean the retaliatory violence by sections on May 9?
Yes, and later too. There is some idea of who burnt the MPs houses [on May 9], but there is much doubt about who burnt Ranil’s house [on July 9]. We don’t condone any of that in anyway. Honest politicians, if there are any left in the country, and there are a few, cannot ignore the entire essence of what happened in the Aragalaya. It swept through the whole country like a tsunami. We must take that into account, and factor that into our political vision and political programmes. I don’t know whether those in power right now are capable of doing it.
Sections within Sri Lanka see the election of President Wickremesinghe, a senior politician, through a parliamentary vote, heralding some stability for Sri Lanka. In your view, is Sri Lanka stable now?
It has definitely brought in a certain amount of stability. Fuel is being distributed in a logical and better fashion. The way the Rajapaksas did it was totally anarchic. Ranil seems to have understood, because he understands the economy and is an intelligent man, that the IMF programme is an absolute must. Even before that I have been saying we have to invite PPPs [Public Private Partnerships] into loss-making institutions.
My government initiated PPPs with Sri Lanka Telecom, Airlines, part of the port, part of power generation. We had a lot of objections, but I was able to handle it. Having worked with Ranil in two governments, I am waiting and watching. I wish him well, for the sake of the country.I really wish he can do it. But I don’t know whether he can translate his thoughts into action.
While the country is waiting to see how the government might set off economic recovery, there is also mounting concern from rights advocates who accuse this government of resorting to repression to stifle dissent, especially in the wake of the recent arrest of student leaders under the Prevention of Terrorism Act.
Totally unnecessary. Leaders have to possess communication skills to engage with those young people. They said they would leave Galle Face one morning and that morning before they left, they were attacked. What they should have done was conversed with them. Ranil himself. But I don’t know whether he has the communication skills. He has not proved such a thing for a long time.In crisis situations like this, leaders must have a very generous heart. When I congratulated him, I said that. They must be able to open their arms, hearts, and minds, and talk to the people, look at the problem from the people’s point of view.
They are starving today. They have been standing in queues for 48 hours, with some people dropping down dead. We have to feel with them, suffer with them, and then talk to them. I think they willnot refuse if leaders communicate properly with them. Now he has already muddied the waters.
Your own proposal recommended forming an interim government under the Prime Minister with just 12 Ministers. Now the cabinet is being expanded and efforts to form an all-party government are yet to succeed, with the opposition appearing sceptical. Do you think the opposition is justified?
He [Mr. Wickremesinghe] has convicted criminals and well-known thugs and robbers in his cabinet. Only a few are convicted, the others managed to persuade a subservient judiciary to let them off during the Rajapaksa regime. If the many cases against the Rajapaksas had been handled properly, there would have been numerable convictions.The Yahapalanaya government went to courts with cases, but they were thrown out for reasons unknown to us.
In such a situation, the younger politicians don’t want to sully their names. And what some of them say is that they would like the President to prove that he can keep his word and bring in the 21st Amendment or at least restore the 19th Amendment [aimed at clipping the President’s executive powers and in turn empowering parliament], and then bring in honest people into the cabinet and implement laws, systems and procedures to prevent corruption. Then they will join the government.
On the one hand, the ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna [SLPP or People’s Front which the Rajapaksas carved out of the SLFP] appears divided. On the other, the SLFPis grappling with divisions within. Now that the Rajapaksas are out of power, do you see the SLFP having a chance to regroup and revive itself?
Sri Lanka, like India, had two major parties. A left of centre party [SLFP], and a right of centre party [United National Party or UNP]. Both those forces have now been decimated. The SLFP is in pieces, a major part of it went to the SLPP. A considerable number has left the SLPP again and are calling themselves independent. Others who would lie on the ground for the Rajapaksas to walk over them are now with Ranil, as his greatest supporters. I suppose Ranil cannot help it, if they vote against him in an impeachment motion, he is finished. I have been asked if I would help the government. I will wait and watch. I have not been hooted at, stoned, nor spat upon [by protesters]. My good name is all I have earned in politics I don’t want to lose that.
Did the President himself invite you to help him?
I have had messages sent. I wish him well, but I will wait and watch because the situation is so horrendous and those in power must prove they can change it. I have had several disappointing experiences working with them.
The UNP may not be as decimated as the SLFP, but it is split.Ranil was the party’s only MP, but he is now building up [support] because he has power. And then there are different groups within the SJB as well [main parliamentary Opposition that broke away from UNP]. So, it’s a bit of a mess.
You were heading the Office for National Unity and Reconciliation. Post-war reconciliation and a political solution to the Tamils are still pending, and some are demanding a new constitution now. The draft constitution of 2000, when you were in power, is often cited as the draft that went farthest in terms of devolution. Do you think it’s a good time to revisit that?
Definitely. I worked on reconciliation for a long time, even before I came into positions in politics. Never before have I seen the people, of their own will, people of different ethnic, religious communities, working like brothers and sisters together, like they did in the Aragalaya. That is another reason I am thrilled by it.
While we did all kinds of programmes to encourage reconciliation, and they were successful, here it happened spontaneously. So, this is the moment to go forward. However, I don’t see any thinking about it.
The political tumult in the last few months was essentially triggered by an economic crisis. In your view what economic model must Sri Lanka choose now to set the country on a path of recovery?
I would say something like what I brought in between 1994 and 2005. Retain the sort of “socialist” aspects such as free education, free health while reducing the excessive subsidies, and slim down and rationalise government because we are dead broke.
A lot of people who are well to do receive subsidies through patronage networks of MPs. Introduce Voluntary Retirement Schemes in government institutions where the workforce is excessive and encourage them to start enterprises by making cheap credit available.
On the other hand, we need to adopt liberal economic policies, in some sectors.The state cannot insist on managing enterprises especially in countries like Sri Lanka, where the public service is incapable of managing state owned enterprises profitably. They are not trained for it. A different set of skills are required to profitably manage enterprises. In addition, corruption reigns supreme in the public enterprises. I see no alternative to bringing in private sector management to state owned enterprises.The ownership remains with the state, while the management is done by the private sector investor. We need a social welfarist approach with the liberal economic logic.
You earlier mentioned that IMF support will be crucial, but it looks like the process will take several months. There are foreign policy choices and geopolitical dynamics that come into play when it comes to debt restructuring and international assistance. How should Sri Lanka navigate this complex terrain?
Sri Lanka, I would say has no other choice than a policy of non-alignment. Dynamic non-alignment, as was followed by all the Bandaranaike governments. I am not saying it because it is my family, but it was very successful. And when once or twice, my mother’s government went against some of our major friends, they suffered.The Rajapaksa government veered too much towards one country, which tried to eliminate every other country from the Sri Lankan scene, and we are suffering the consequences.
I am personally very thankful that India has come in, giving us all this aid when they could have stood back and waited because they were not very happy with the Rajapaksa government’s policies. Whether we like it or not, we are a small country. Our major assets are our strategic location and human resources. We can be a major services hub in the whole region, not only South Asia, but all of Asia.
I think we should welcome all the major players in the region into this country for investment. We don’t have to sell our country to them as some say. It is more important than ever before because the country is insolvent. We need their financial participation, we need their skills. We are losing our skilled people. Some 140,000 young people have left the country this year. It is very tragic. A lot of people will then come back because the quality of life in Sri Lanka, until this crisis, is usually better than in many other places in the world. We have one of the mildest climates the whole year, most beautiful natural surroundings, water, soil.
One of the responses of the government to this crisis, both when President Gotabaya Rajapaksa was in power and more recently under President Wickremesinghe, has been to restrict imports. This move, for many, invokes memories of the 1970s under Prime Minister Sirimavo Bandaranaike, when shortages and long queues were common. How do view this comparison?
Of course, we must be self-sufficient in major products, major food products at least, and maybe small industrial products. But to say we must stop all imports and produce everything in Sri Lanka is not realistic. We are not big enough to do that.
You know, we Sinhala Buddhists, who comprise 70% of the population, are a majority with a terrific minority complex. Right through history, we have had this. One must analyse why. I suppose one reason is that we have a massive neighbour,and we have had a conflictual relationship with that country since ancient times, we were invaded 52 times by Indian kings. When a majority has a minority complex, you try to put down everybody around you to feel that you are important. That is a collective weakness of our nation.
The roots of the ethnic conflict also lie there, then?
It is certainly one of the major roots.And there is also another reason, which is not related, is that somehow, since the 1970s and 1980s, the type of persons who came into parliament were rascals, I wouldn’t let through my gate under normal circumstances.Those who got their houses burnt, except a few of them, were the known crooks. I don’t say that was the solution, that should have never been done. But they are so shameless. When people don’t have one square meal a day, they shamelessly demand they be given compensation immediately. Every one of them has made enough money illegally to build themselves two, three houses, and a large number of them already have many other houses, I can vouch for that.
Earlier, we had decent people in parliament, with principles and commitment irrespective of their background or education. But little by little that changed, especially with J.R. Jayawardene opening up the economy indiscriminately. Unlike in the West where capitalism took centuries to evolve, allowing systems and structures to adjust, the change in Sri Lanka came so abruptly, all our social structures burst asunder.
So all kinds of rascals came into Parliament, uneducated, not skilled. Everybody doesn’t have to be educated. There are lots of top business peoplein Sri Lanka and all over the world, who don’t have much education but possess the skills and commitment to engage in honest business. Our present politicians come into parliament thinking that parliament is going to be the best business to earn the largest amount of money with the least effort.
As you said, President Wickremesinghe is reliant on the SLPP in parliament. Do you see this dynamic changing with the attempted all-party or multiparty government?
He is very keen to have all the political parties in government, but even if he gets all of them, SLPP still has the majority. Some in opposition are fearful that even if they join, the SLPP will dominate. So they don’t want to dirty their hands and be the target of public hate. It is a dilemma.
The President must bring in the new Constitution, ask the well-known crooks to move out, bring in better politicians, and present a people-friendly development programme. Then the whole country will support him.
What about the Rajapaksas? Do you think the game is over for them, as some say, or can they make a comeback especially since the opposition is still weak?
All those possibilities are there. If a government, not a Ranil-SLPP government, but a government led by Ranil and all other parties, an honest government, solves the country’s problems, history will put the Rajapaksas in their due place.That is also why I say the Aragalaya movement was brilliant and extraordinary. The Rajapaksas have harassed me. They did that in cheap, horrible ways. Mahinda [Rajapaksa] and Basil [Rajapaksa]. Anyway, those are details that do not influence my political priorities. I dislike them for what they did to the country and our party.
So I am delighted that the Aragalaya was able to chase them out in a peaceful manner I think it is a great thing that happened, otherwise they would never have gone. I am also surprised by their shamelessness, by the fact that they are still clinging on. I would have taken a straight dive into the Indian Ocean if the people had reacted one-tenth as badly against me.
Do you see yourself returning to active politics?
No. Definitely not.
Why?
I have done enough. Unlike most Sri Lankan politicians, I have a lot of other interests in life.
What keeps you busy these days?
I am enjoying writing vision statements for political groups who want help. Quite a few young politicians who don’t want to be part of the Rajapaksa cabal come and ask me for advice. I still chair a few foundations.Then, I have started a leadership academy at the Bandaranaike Centre for International Studies to train young people to be good leaders, not only in politics, but also for society at large. I take care of my personal finances. I have a lot more time for my friends. I love reading, cinema, and theatre. I was utterly frustrated when I was President that I couldn’t read enough.
What are you reading currently?
I read quite a few books in the last three years after I pulled out of active politics. Chimamanda Adichie, I love her. I actually met her once at the Galle literature festival. I like Kazuo Ishiguro; I have a lot of his books. I read some of the Indian authors. In the last few years, I have been fascinated with the Tudor period in England.
There are several female writers, all English, who are history scholars who have studied that period. They have written historical novels. Two of them won Booker prizes. Being a political person, I enjoy reading about political machinations, Henry VIII’s thinking, how they broke up the Catholic Church and started the Anglican Church,really fascinating!
Then there was a very good book on Marie Antoinette, also by one of those English authors. I read two, three books at a time and keep switching. Now I am into some books by Ben Macintyre. He is a good writer, who has studied documents about the Soviet spy system. One was called Agent Sonya.Another writer I enjoy is Sebastian Faulks, he writes fiction based on the two World Wars. Once in a way I read a nice funny book. Just nice things. I also paint, I used to. When I was living in England for a few years after retirement, I started painting again. But 2015 [efforts to form national unity government] sabotaged all that.
You are also trained in Kandyan dance, aren’t you?
Oh, I danced a lot. On stage too. When I was in Paris [as a university student] I went for modern ballet classes, Greek dance, and all that. I used to write poetry, but not anymore. For that you must have your mind at ease. And then when I get dragged back into politics, even if I am not actively engaged in it, I become too stressed to engage in nice activities. (The Hindu)
Features
Trump-Xi meet more about economics rather than politics
The fact that some of the US’ topmost figures in business, such as Tesla chief Elon Musk and major US chipmaker Jensen Huang of NVIDIA fame, occupied as nearly a prominent a position as President Donald Trump at the recent ‘historic and landmark’ visit by the latter to China underscores the continuing vital importance of business in US-China ties. Business seemed to outweigh politics to a considerable degree in importance during the visit although the political dimension in US-China ties appeared to be more ‘headline grabbing’.
To be sure, the political dimension cannot be downplayed. For very good reason China could be seen as holding the power balance somewhat evenly between East and West. The international politics commentator couldn’t be seen as overstating the case if he takes the position that China could exercise substantial influence over the East currently; that is Russia and Iran, in the main. The latter powers hold the key in the Eastern hemisphere to shaping international politics in the direction of further war or of influencing it towards a measure of peace.
For example, time and again China has prevented the West from ‘having its own way’, so to speak, in the UN Security Council, for instance, in respect of the ongoing conflicts involving Russia and Iran, by way of abstaining from voting or by vetoing declarations that it sees as deleterious. That is, China has been what could be seen as a ‘moderating influence’ in international politics thus far. It has helped to keep the power balance somewhat intact between East and West.
At present a meet is ongoing between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing. This happened almost immediately after the Trump visit. Apparently, Beijing is in an effort to project itself as treating the US and Russia even-handedly while underscoring that it is no ‘special friend’ of the US or the West.
This effort at adopting a non-partisan stance on contentious questions in international politics is also seen in Beijing’s policy position on the Hormuz tangle and issues growing out of it. The Chinese authorities are quoted as saying in this regard, for instance, that China is for ‘a comprehensive and lasting ceasefire in the Middle East’.
Such a position has the effect of enhancing the perception that China is even-handed in its handling of divisive foreign policy posers. It is not openly anti-West nor is it weighing in with Iran and other Eastern actors that are opposed to the West in the West Asian theatre. A ‘comprehensive and lasting ceasefire’ implies that a solution needs to be arrived at that would be seen as fair by all quarters concerned.
On the highly sensitive Taiwan issue, President Xi was comparatively forthright during the Trump visit, but here too it was plain to see that Beijing was not intent on introducing a jarring, discordant note into the ongoing, largely cordial discussions with Washington. On the Taiwan question President Xi was quoted saying: ‘If mishandled, the two nations could collide even come into conflict.’ In other words, the US was cautioned that China’s interests need to be always borne in mind in its handling of the Taiwan issue.
The cautioning had the desired result because Trump in turn had reportedly conveyed to Taiwan that the latter’s concerns on the matter of independence had to be handled discreetly. He had told Taiwan plainly not to declare ‘independence.’
Accordingly, neither the US nor China had said or done anything that would have made either party lose face during their interaction. Apparently, both sides were sensitive to each others’ larger or national interests. And the economic interests of both powers were foremost among the latter considerations.
There is no glossing over or ignoring economic interests in the furtherance of ties between states. They are primal shaping forces of foreign policies and the fact that ‘economics drives politics’ is most apparent in US-China ties. That is, economic survival is fundamental.
Among the more memorable quotes from President Xi during the interaction, which also included US business leaders, was the following: ‘China’s doors will be open wider’ and US firms would have ‘broader prospects in the Chinese market.’
Xi went on to say that the sides had agreed to a ‘new positioning for ties’ based on ‘constructive strategic stability’. The implication here is that both sides would do well not to undermine existing, mutually beneficial economic relations in view of the wider national interests of both powers that are served by a continuation of these economic ties. That is, the way forward, in the words of the Chinese authorities, is ‘win-win cooperation.’
It is the above pronouncements by the Chinese authorities that probably led President Trump to gush that the talks were ‘very successful’ and of ‘historic and landmark’ importance. Such sentiments should only be expected of a billionaire US President, bent on economic empire-building.
One of the most important deals that were put through reportedly during the interaction was a Chinese agreement to buy some 200 Boeing jets and a ‘potential commitment to buy an additional 750 planes.’ However, details were not forthcoming on other business deals that may have been hatched.
Accordingly, from the viewpoint of the protagonists the talks went off well and the chances are that the sides would stand to gain substantially from unruffled future economic ties. However, there was no mention of whether the health of the world economy or the ongoing conflicts in West Asia were taken up for discussion.
Such neglect is regretful. Although the veritable economic power houses of the world, the US and China, are likely to thrive in the short and medium terms and their ruling strata could be expected to benefit enormously from these ongoing economic interactions the same could not be said of most of the rest of the world and its populations.
Needless to say, the ongoing oil and gas crisis, for instance, resulting from the conflict situation in West Asia, is taking a heavy toll on the majority of the world’s economies and the relevant publics. While no urgent intervention to ease the lot of the latter could be expected from the Trump administration there is much that China could do on this score.
China could use its good offices with the US to address the negative fallout on the poorer sections of the world from the present global economic crunch and urge the West to help in introducing systemic changes that could facilitate these positive outcomes. After all, China remains a socialist power.
Features
The Quiet Shift: China as America’s “+1” in a Changing World Order
“Everything ever said to me by any Chinese of any station during any visit was part of an intricate design”
— Henry Kissinger
That design may already be complete before this week’s , a meeting that could shape the future balance of global power.
The wind arrives quietly. By the time it is heard, history has already begun to turn. Across Asia, that wind is no longer distant. It carries with it the exhaustion of an old order and the uncertain birth of another. The question now is not whether the world will change. It is whether those who hold power possess the wisdom to guide that change toward something less violent than the century behind us.
Since 1945, the United States has carried the burden of a global order built with its Western allies. To its credit, the world avoided another direct world war between great powers. The conflicts remained contained in distant lands—proxy wars fought in the shadows of ideology, oil, and influence. From Latin America to Asia, the American century expanded not only through prosperity, but through intervention. Yet empires, even democratic ones, grow tired. Fatigue settles slowly into institutions, alliances, and public memory. The role of global policeman no longer inspires certainty in Washington as it once did.
The “rules-based order” now confronts its own contradiction: it was built to be universal, yet it often appeared selective. During my recent visit to , a young researcher asked me quietly, “Does the West itself still believe in the rules-based order?” The question lingered long after the conversation ended. The rising century demands a more inclusive architecture—one that recognises the reality of Asian power, especially China.
My three years of field research across South and Southeast Asia, documented in , revealed a transformation too significant to dismiss as temporary. China has moved beyond being merely a competitor to the United States. In trade, infrastructure, technology, cultural diplomacy, and economic influence, Beijing has established itself as what may be called the world’s “US +1.”
Great powers often search for such a partner. History shows this tendency clearly. When an empire becomes overextended—burdened by wars, alliances, sanctions, tariffs, and crises—it seeks another center of gravity to stabilize the system it can no longer manage alone. The United States today faces disorder stretching from Venezuela to Iran, from Ukraine to the unsettled Middle East. In this landscape, China emerges not simply as a rival, but as a state powerful enough to broker peace where Washington alone no longer can.
Drawing from the lessons of the Nixon–Mao era, warned that “” The United States and China are now engaged in a long-term economic, technological, political, and strategic competition. Managing that competition wisely may become the defining challenge of this century. In such a deeply polarized and unstable world, recognising China as a “US +1” partner is not surrender, but strategic realism.
Donald Trump understood this reality before boarding his flight to meet Xi Jinping. Their meeting inside Zhongnanhai—the guarded compound where China’s leadership governs—was never merely ceremonial. It symbolized a deeper recognition already acknowledged quietly within the itself: China is the nearest peer competitor the United States has ever confronted. Before departing Washington, Trump seemed to reassess not only China’s strength, but its unavoidable position as a “” shaping the future global balance.
Yet the significance of a Trump–Xi meeting extends beyond trade wars, tariffs, or diplomatic spectacle. It presents an opportunity to confront two crises shaping the century ahead: global energy insecurity and regional instability. Washington increasingly understands the limits of direct engagement with Tehran. Decades of pressure, sanctions, and confrontation have produced exhaustion rather than resolution. In that vacuum, Beijing now possesses leverage that Washington does not.
For China, this is an opportunity to evolve from a development partner into a security actor. Xi Jinping’s (GSI) was never designed merely as rhetoric. It was intended as the next phase of Chinese influence—transforming economic dependence into strategic trust. The geopolitical spillover from the Iranian conflict now offers Beijing a historic opening to project itself as a stabilising force in the region, not against the United States, but alongside it as a “US +1” partner.
If China succeeds in helping stabilise the Gulf and secure energy corridors vital to Asia, it will reshape perceptions of Chinese power globally. Beijing would no longer be seen only as the builder of ports, railways, and industrial zones, but as a guarantor of regional balance. This transition—from infrastructure diplomacy to security diplomacy—may become one of the defining geopolitical shifts of the coming decade.
Xi Jinping does not seek open confrontation. His strategy is older, more patient, and perhaps more formidable because of its restraint. Beijing speaks not of domination, but of a “,” advanced through three instruments of influence: the Global Development Initiative (GDI), the Global Security Initiative (GSI), and the Global Civilization Initiative (GCI). These are not slogans alone. Across Asia, many governments increasingly trust China as a development partner more than any other power.
India, despite its ambitions, has not matched this scale of regional penetration. In both ASEAN and South Asia, China’s economic gravity is felt more deeply. Ports, railways, technology networks, and financial dependency have altered the geopolitical map quietly, without the spectacle of war.
In , I compared three inward-looking national strategies shaping Asia today: Trump’s MAGA, Modi’s emerging economic nationalism , and Xi’s strategy. Among them, China has demonstrated the greatest structural resilience. Faced with American tariffs and decoupling pressures, Beijing diversified its supply chains across Central Asia, Europe, and Southeast Asia. Rail corridors now connect Chinese industry to European markets through Eurasia. ASEAN has surpassed the United States as China’s largest trading partner, while the European Union follows closely behind. Exports to America have declined sharply, yet China continues to expand. Trump, once defined by confrontation, now arrives seeking a new “” with China—an acknowledgment that economic rivalry alone can no longer define the relationship between the world’s two largest powers.
Unlike Washington, which increasingly retreats from multilateral institutions, Beijing presents itself as the defender of multilateralism. Whether genuine or strategic matters less than perception. In geopolitics, perception often becomes reality.
What emerges, then, is not surrender between rivals, but interdependence between powers too large to isolate one another. The future may not belong to a bipolar Cold War, but to a reluctant coexistence. The United States now recognises that China possesses diversified markets and partnerships capable of reducing dependence on America. China, in turn, understands that its long march toward global primacy still requires strategic engagement with the United States.
This is where the true geopolitical shift begins.
Many analysts continue to frame China solely as a threat. Yet history rarely moves through absolutes. The next world order may not be built through confrontation alone, but through uneasy partnership. Artificial intelligence, technological supremacy, economic stability, and global governance now demand cooperation between Washington and Beijing, whether either side admits it publicly or not.
Trump will likely celebrate his personal relationship with Xi, presenting himself as the American leader capable of negotiating a “better deal” with China than his predecessors. But beneath the rhetoric lies something larger: the gradual acceptance of China’s indispensable role in shaping the future international order.
Even the question of war increasingly returns to Beijing. If Washington seeks an understanding with Tehran, China’s influence becomes unavoidable. Iran listens to Beijing in ways it no longer listens to the West. This alone signals how profoundly the balance of power has shifted. And Xi, careful as always, refuses to openly inherit the mantle of global leadership. He delays, softens, and obscures intention. It is part of a longer strategy: to rise without provoking the final resistance of a declining hegemon too early.
History rarely announces its turning point. Empires fade slowly, while new powers rise quietly beneath the noise of the old order. Washington still holds immense power, but Beijing increasingly holds the patience, reach, and strategic depth to shape what comes after.
The century ahead may not belong to one power alone, but to the uneasy balance between Washington and Beijing. And in that silence, a new world order is already taking shape.
By Asanga Abeyagoonasekera
Features
Egypt … here I come
Chit-Chat Nethali Withanage
Three months ago, 19-year-old Nethali Withanage, with Brian Kerkoven as her mentor, walked the ramp at Colombo Fashion Week. On 06 June, she’ll walk for Sri Lanka in Hurghada, Egypt, as the country’s delegate to Top Model of the World 2026._
I caught up with Nethali as she prepares to fly out, this weekend, and here’s how our chit-chat went:
1. Tell me something about yourself?
I’m someone who blends creativity with ambition. I’ve always loved expressing myself, whether it’s through fashion, styling, or the way I present myself to the world. At the same time, I’m very driven and disciplined, especially when I was working, as a student counsellor, at Campus One, at a young age, where I’ve learned how to connect with people, understand them, and communicate with confidence. I believe I’m still evolving, and that’s what excites me the most … becoming better every single day.
2. What made you decide to be a model?
Modelling felt natural to me because it combines everything I love – fashion, confidence, and storytelling without words. I realised that modelling isn’t just about appearance, it’s about presence and how you carry your energy. I wanted to be part of an industry where I could express different sides of myself, while inspiring others to feel confident in their own skin.
3. What sets you apart from other models?
I would say my ability to connect. Whether it’s with the camera, a brand, or an audience, I bring authenticity. I also have a strong background in communication and sales, which gives me an edge in understanding how to represent a brand, not just wear it. I don’t want to just model clothes, I want to bring them to life.
4. What clothing do you prefer to model?
I enjoy modelling versatile styles, but I’m especially drawn to elegant and expressive fashion pieces that tells a story. I love looks that allow me to embody confidence and femininity, whether it’s a structured outfit or something soft and flowing.
5. What is the most important aspect of modelling?
Confidence combined with professionalism. Confidence allows you to own the moment, but professionalism ensures that you respect the work, the team, and the brand you represent. Both are equally important.
6. If you could change one thing about yourself, what would it be?
I would say I’m learning to trust myself more and not overthink. I’ve realised that growth comes from embracing who you are, not constantly trying to change it. So instead of changing something, I’m focused on becoming more confident in my own voice.
7. School?
I did my O/Ls at Seventh Day Adventist High School Kandana, and, while at school, I was actively involved in creative activities. I enjoyed participating in English Day events that allowed me to express myself and interact with others. Those experiences helped me build confidence, teamwork, and communication skills, which continue to shape who I am today.
8. Happiest moment?
One of my happiest moments is realising how far I’ve come from being unsure of myself to stepping into opportunities, like modelling, and representing myself with confidence. That feeling of growth is something I truly value, and also a dream come true!
9. Your idea of perfect happiness?
Perfect happiness for me is peace of mind, being surrounded by people I love, doing what I’m passionate about, and feeling proud of who I am becoming.
10. Your ideal guy?
My ideal partner is someone who is respectful, supportive, and confident in himself. Someone who values growth, understands my ambitions, and encourages me to be the best version of myself.
11. Which living person do you most admire?
I admire strong, self-made individuals who have built their identity through hard work and resilience. People who stay true to themselves, despite challenges, inspire me, because they show that success is not just about talent, but also about strength and consistency.
12. Your most treasured possession?
My most treasured possession is my confidence. It’s something I’ve built over time, and it allows me to face challenges, take opportunities, and believe in myself, even when things are uncertain.
13. If you were marooned on a desert island, who would you like as your companion?
I would choose someone who is calm, positive, and resourceful, someone who can turn a difficult situation into an adventure. The right mindset matters more than anything.
14. Your most embarrassing moment?
I’m 19 and still haven’t faced any most embarrassing moment. But I would say I’ve had small moments where things didn’t go as planned, but I’ve learned to laugh at myself. Those moments remind me that perfection isn’t necessary; confidence is about how you recover, not how you avoid mistakes.
15. Done anything daring?
Pursuing modelling and stepping into competitions is something I consider daring. It pushed me out of my comfort zone and challenged me to grow, both personally and professionally.
16. Your ideal vacation?
My ideal vacation would be somewhere peaceful, yet beautiful, like a beach destination where I can relax, reflect, and reconnect with myself, while enjoying nature.
17. What kind of music are you into?
I choose music that matches my mood at that time, whether it’s calm and relaxing or energetic and uplifting. Music is something that helps me express emotions and stay inspired.
18. Favourite radio station?
Usually I don’t listen to radio stations but whenever I get into a car I would search for Yes FM because it has a refined balance of contemporary hits and timeless music. I appreciate how it maintains a vibrant yet sophisticated energy, keeping listeners engaged while creating a consistently uplifting atmosphere. It’s something I enjoy because it adds a sense of positivity and elegance to my day.
19. Favourite TV station?
At the moment, I don’t have a television at home, but growing up, my favourite TV station was ‘Nickelodeon’. I genuinely loved the shows and series it aired; they were fun, creative, and full of personality. It was something I always looked forward to, and those memories still bring a sense of joy and nostalgia, whenever I think about it.
20. Any major plans for the future?
My future plans are to grow in the modelling industry, work with international brands, build a strong personal brand and finish completing a Bachelor’s Degree in Business Studies. At the same time, I want to explore my creative side further, especially in fashion and business, so I can create something of my own one day.
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