All four major contenders (no need to mention them) for the presidency come September 21, have released their manifestos: magnificently made castles in the air with a magnum of imagination; irresponsibly airy fairy; frankly tall tales. The latest released was by Namal Rajapaksa, with his father close at hand and four paternal uncles planting kisses on his cheek which translates for those watching – elders’ approval. The moot point as pointed out by a TV news reader was his promise to eliminate corruption. We presume it’s not of the ordinary people, you and me, but from those who govern us. So rich his saying this.

   It will be a herculean task since corruption is rife in this country. It was not always present. We oldies remember MPs, Ministers, top government administrators who possessed the Four Absolutes: honesty, purity, unselfishness and love of country; they truly did from DS and his Ministers down to the 1960s or thereabouts after which corruption stealthily stole in. We had a government-to-government complaint, Cass believes from Japan, reporting that a Cabinet Minister solicited a commission from a foreign company. In-house enquiry followed the complaint, and absolution to the corrupt minister. Result: the cold shoulder from this once biggest benefactor to SL.

   In conclusion, we congratulate Namal Rajapaksa on mentioning so forcibly his primary task as Prez of SL: wiping out corruption. He might have to change his surname, first.

A perfect, dignified, modern and proud life

This kind of life is promised in a comfortable, safe, rich, and steadfast country. Yes, that is what the NPP manifesto promises us, the citizens of Sri Lanka who are burdened far too heavily, suffer far too much and are denied even the bare basics of life due to high prices and poverty increasing among us. These burdens were heaped on us by corrupt and ineffective governments.

Her first reaction was to laugh – a bitter laugh, her mind going back to 1971 and 1989 and remembering that the country as a whole was made to suffer the very opposites of what AKD promises to do if he becomes Prez of Sri Lanka.

A comfortable country is promised. When the JVP rose up twice with arms to capture power, life for most in SL became totally uncomfortable and many were robbed and tortured and killed. The country was far from safe, rather it was mired in turmoil. Infrastructure being destroyed particularly in the late 1980s, impoverished the country and it became far from steadfast.

But let’s accept the fact the JVP within the NPP is entirely changed now. Its manifesto with their policy statement of 230 pages, after promising the four blissful states mentioned above, assures “a new constitution, an efficient health service aimed at disease prevention in order to create healthy and fit citizens, removal of duty free vehicle permits for Members of Parliament (MPs), changes in the tax system, a pensions for all, limitation of ministerial positions to 25, optimum use of mass media and a free media industry.

” The manifesto also focuses on “methods to recover stolen state assets; sustainable bio world providing a green life for all; a big change in the salary of the Police and to make the Police service people-friendly; making the judicial process smoother and more efficient by taking steps to introduce modern technology and providing proper training to the judges and staff; establishment of a new relief bank to restore the economic activities of micro, small and medium enterprises and provide relief for outstanding loans; establishing a new National Development Bank to provide long-term financing to entrepreneurs, start-ups and business expansion; digital governance; renegotiating with the  IMF on how to contain and implement a more robust and accurate programme to alleviate the hardship of the poor; an efficient workforce and a dignified career; a meaningful and fulfilling life for persons with disabilities and a monthly allowance of Rs 5,000 to senior citizens in need of subsidy.”

Jaundice-free comments

After heaving a huge sigh of relief going through all those promises, but considering each offer with no prejudice, Cassandra expresses thoughts that arose in her. Her opinions are worthwhile as she is old, experienced, still optimistic about the country’s future, is unbiased politically and may be expressing other thinking women’s opinion.

First remark: Utopian in many of the promises. Unlikely implementation of such as the recovery of stolen state assets. Promised by all parties; never even attempted so far. Maybe NPP will succeed. Blatant corruption may cease.

However, praiseworthy in many others and to be endorsed fully by us citizens. Approved particularly is the curtailment of number of the Cabinet Ministers and freebies and concessions to MPs like tax free import of luxury vehicles. Added to this should be pensions for MPs after five years and assurance of the stopping of govt spending on luxury living for past Presidents and their spouses.

We women are suspicious and disapproving of interference with the judiciary. “Proper training of judges” – whatever does that mean? “Making the judicial process smoother and more efficient …”  the manifesto says by introducing technology. But a JVP member very clearly stated that village level courts would be appointed. An Editor termed them kangaroo courts and that sent shivers down our spines.

We have read about the atrocities committed by Pol Pot in Cambodia, where intellectuals were made to work in paddy fields or cut trees in forests and their kangaroo courts. The JVP of long ago expressed the idea of uprooting tea from estates and growing manioc. Fears linger.

We are skeptical about opening up new banks. We have more than enough of banks, some dedicated to helping the farmer and minor entrepreneur. Improve them not overload the banking sector. We were shocked to learn that debts to the People’s Bank by many rich businessmen were written off recently. Also, the idea of re-negotiating with the IMF. Rather the government should make every Sri Lankan to work hard to improve the economy of the country.

 “An efficient workforce and a dignified career” are promised in the manifesto. A huge yes to the first promise. Improving the work in all government offices is imperative, and we believe it is the NPP that can achieve it best and most successfully. There is no work done in offices with the election in close view. At other times too its laissez faire – do minimum but strike work for salary increases. Even schoolteachers behave thus. Next to the elimination of corruption is the need to make efficient the public service. The promise of “a dignified career” is a promise hanging meaningless.

We are, as of now, free of protests and strikes that were daily disturbances to the running of the country and our lives. Every sort of worker from labourers, farmers, teachers and university staff struck work, including doctors. Who were behind these strikes; who the instigators and facilitators? Is it that strikes are banned once date of an election is announced or is it that the instigators are occupied and busy electioneering? There is a warning issued by Ordinaries that strikes may occur drastically if the manifesto Cass comments on does not win its leader the presidency. Anything is possible in this Land like no other!

By Uditha Devapriya
This is the first of a two-part article published in The Diplomat.

On Wednesday, August 21, 2024, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Sri Lanka, together with The Geopolitical Cartographer, a Colombo-based think-tank specialising in the Indian Ocean, organised a forum on Central Asia. The event took place in two sessions, one in the morning focusing on transport and logistics in Central Asia and another in the evening centring on economic ties. Both were overseen by the Ministry’s Central Asia and South-East Asia Affairs Division and attended by academics, diplomats, and Ministry officials.

The Forum, which was also attended by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, took place against the backdrop of a series of consultations that the Ministry organised with governments of Central Asian countries in 2023 and 2024. The latest of these, with Turkmenistan, happened in May this year. A month earlier, the Ministry held consultations in Astana, Uzbekistan, where both sides agreed to set up Embassies. Sri Lanka is presently accredited to the region through diplomatic missions in India, Pakistan, and Russia.

Sri Lanka’s motives in Central Asia

Colombo has been eyeing Central Asia for quite some time. Between 2011 and 2021, it sent delegations to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. While these went some way in bolstering diplomatic relations and provided a basis for further engagements, they do not seem to have been followed up. In one sense, the latest round of consultations can be described as a second phase in Sri Lanka’s relations with the region, at a time when both Sri Lanka and Central Asia are recalibrating their foreign policies.

The war in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East and Eurasia have forced the five Central Asian states – Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan – into a delicate balancing act. While not outright endorsing Russia’s actions in Ukraine, they have been careful not to anger Moscow. Once part of the Soviet Union – which held the world’s sixth largest Muslim population – they have since evolved their foreign policy, which scholars typically refer to as “multi-vector” – essentially, a strategy of extending outward to as many regions and countries as possible without overtly taking sides.

At first glance, this appears to be Sri Lanka’s strategy too. Since the crisis in 2022, which saw a sitting president being unseated by angry protesters over queues and shortages, the government has been trying to chart a new course in its foreign relations. Given the scale of the crisis – the worst in Sri Lanka’s post-independence history – it has been compelled to prioritise some countries and deprioritise others while balancing them with one another. India remains at the top of the list, while China – which, since 2007, lent extensively to Sri Lanka, even if one disregards the lurid sensationalism of debt trap narratives – has taken a backseat. Engagements with the United States and its allies, over areas like humanitarian aid and even infrastructure development, have grown as well.

Second session – Central Asia Forum

There are obvious differences between Central Asia and Sri Lanka. Central Asia is a heavily landlocked region, while Sri Lanka is a small island-state. Yet there is some congruence in the security pressures governing the foreign policy of these countries: Central Asia from Russia, Sri Lanka from India. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the region underwent a period of economic restructuring. These generated mixed results, with some countries recording growth and others plunging into recession.

After the September 11 attacks, Central Asia revived its ties with Russia, and in turn with the US, which at the time was close to Moscow and Vladimir Putin. Since 2010, however, the region has been expanding relations with China. The latter’s dramatic ascent since 2005 has convinced the region of the benefits of closer integration with Beijing, vis-à-vis transport networks such as the Trans-Caspian Route. That has consolidated bilateral trade, which has grown from USD 25.9 billion in 2009 to almost USD 90 billion in 2023.

Central Asia has also become a strategic consideration for Western powers. In the US, the Biden administration has been trying to forge closer ties with the region. This has become important following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

After the invasion of Afghanistan, which borders Central Asia, in 2001, Washington built military bases and expand security cooperation with these countries.

However, the region experienced a fallout from the Bush administration’s interventions in the Middle East. That soured relations between Central Asia and the US. According to one analyst, the Biden administration is now using Ukraine as a ploy to restore those relations. It remains to be seen whether such tactics will work.

In all this, Central Asia has been prioritising its autonomy. Thus, while maintaining ties with Russia, it is also reaching out to China through platforms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), which held its most recent summit in July. At the same time, while voting in favour of Palestine at the United Nations, the region, Kazakhstan in particular, has been maintaining ties with Israel. A recent study shows that Central Asia has increased interactions with other countries from 60 in 2015 to 158 in 2023. Such strategies are typical of states engaged in balancing acts, including Sri Lanka.

In the early 2000s, the US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq and the resulting fallout pushed Central Asia into other regions. These included South Asia. Initially covering Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India, Central Asia has now expanded to Dhaka. India has responded positively to these developments. In 2012, the Manmohan Singh administration held the first India-Central Asia Dialogue in Bishkek. Under Narendra Modi, such interactions have widened. Pertinently, platforms like the SCO have provided opportunities for India as well as China, to say nothing of countries like Türkiye, to consolidate ties with the region.

Foreign Secretary Aruni Wijewardene

The gambit: Opportunities and challenges

Given the many parallels in the foreign policies of Central Asia and South Asia, in particular India, does Sri Lanka’s Central Asia gambit make sense? Without overlooking the obvious differences – in size and potential – between them, it must be noted that Central Asia and Sri Lanka have both been guided by two imperatives: a balancing act on the one hand and a more long-term “extending outward” strategy on the other. For Sri Lanka, the balancing act has played out between India, China, and the US. For Central Asia, it appears to be playing out between China and Russia, even if the latter two are too intertwined to let ties with one region, even of mutual strategic importance, overdetermine everything else.

Sri Lanka and Central Asia thus seem to be placed in a positive conjuncture, a crossroads in their histories, that has made a strategic alliance both feasible and plausible. While the 2011-2021 round of consultations took place against the backdrop of the end of the 30-year war and the need to boost foreign investment, Colombo did not feel an urge to reach out to other regions: it was able to secure largesse from Beijing to finance its huge infrastructure projects. It also issued large volumes of ISBs. Now, with both China-funded projects and ISBs coming to a standstill, it is trying to resume from where it left off.

But are strategic alliances enough to sustain bilateral ties in the longer term? At the August conclave, Director-General of the Central Asia and South-East Asia Affairs Division of the Sri Lankan Foreign Ministry Sashikala Premawardhane highlighted several sticking points in the country’s ties with Central Asia. Top among them was trade.

Uditha Devapriya is the Chief International Relations Analyst at Factum, an Asia-Pacific focused foreign policy think-tank based in Colombo, Sri Lanka. He studied at the Bandaranaike Centre for International Studies (BCIS), from where he graduated in 2023. His thesis, supervised by Dr Chulanee Attanayake, was on Sri Lanka Central Asia relations. It won the Prize for the Best Dissertation that year.

By Prof. Kirthi Tennakone
(Email: ktenna@yahoo.co.uk)

These days, our political parties hurriedly present their policies. They criticize each other, analyze, and debate to convince (confuse) citizens. Displaying superficiality and insincerity more often than profundity and honesty. What allows this waste of time and unwarranted cost of propaganda?

The primary objective of politics is the diversion of human and material resources, optimally for the benefit of all.

A policy is a plan of action proposed to achieve an objective. Planning, uniquely identifiable as effective, is possible only if a predictive theory exists to abide by and follow. In the social sciences, there are no such theories.

In the absence of a theory, virtually anybody can frame a policy to cater to his or her whims and fancies. Therefore, even the stupidest can criticise or endorse, to deceive the masses, and attempt to influence winning an election.

Some change colour, go to a platform, and what he or she utters there, tantamount to the statement: the policy I advocated yesterday was wrong, and from today I will be in the camp, which I opposed yesterday.

In the world of engineering, the situation is different. Predictive theories enable accurate planning. A 300-seater airplane of 3000 km transit capability and optimal fuel consumption can be designed based on powerful aerodynamic theory. No need to construct a number of models and alter the design if they crash when flown.

Engineers, unlike politicians, know how to draft a plan precisely and implement it.

Similarly, the world succeeded in containing the pandemic because of the availability of vast theoretical knowledge about viruses, immunity, and the way epidemics propagate. The know-how facilitated the planning and immediate implementation. The pandemic was effectively controlled.

Although we have good theoretical knowledge about viruses to plan and mitigate an epidemic, we do not understand our own behaviour sufficiently to formulate predictive theories and use them to plan strategies to cure societal ills!

In the absence of social theories, philosophers resorted to ideologies. An ideology is a set of beliefs, unprovable by logical reasoning or empirical methods. Solon’s (630 BCE) democracy and Marx’s (1867 CE) communism are both ideologies. Nonetheless, they were masterpiece intellectual efforts. The former was practiced for more than 2500 years in different lands with variations. Communism more or less collapsed after about a century and a half.

Communism advocates rigid governmental economic planning. Whereas democracy allows freedom of competition in production goods, services, and expression of ideas. For that reason, it lasted longer and continued.

Nature’s method of choosing the best option is evolutionary selection via competition. The greatest engineering marvel in the universe, known to humans, their own brain is not a product designed by a scientific theory. No scientific theory exists to construct a thing of that capability.

Even inanimate objects, planned on the basis of predictive theories, incorporate evolutionary corrections. During usage, the faults of an aircraft model are detected and corrections installed in subsequent generations of the model.

Extreme planning in the absence of a theory and suppression of the evolution of economic policy was the cause of the failure of communism in the Soviet Union. Western Europe evolved and advanced, but the Soviet bloc stagnated.

A principle that needs to be adopted in formulating social policies should be leaving room for accommodation of evolutionary corrections. And incorporate amendments, whenever a need arises during implementation. Thinking rationally and without being biased by self-interest

Socialism and capitalism are not strict ideologies; they originated from experience. Socialism is different from communism. The former potentially evolves in conjunction with democracy. In fact, Solon, considered the father of democracy, was socialistic in his policies. He formulated a policy of governance to mitigate rich-poor disparity. Implementation of the policy grew and stabilised the economy of Athens.

In the modern context, appropriate intermingling of socialism and capitalism in a democratic framework and permitting evolution would be the best dictum for a policy formulation.

A policy has to be broad but foresightful with details and implementation to be worked out at the subordinate specialist level.

Often, policies fail as a result of manipulation and corrupt practices during implementation – serious social malady so familiar to us. The remedy for the malady is transparency, openness and honesty, permitting expression of the opposite view.

Invisibility of openness, and transparency correlates with corruption and crime. There are so many financial frauds, murders, disappearances and harassments of journalists. They remain uninvestigated, misinterpreted or irrationally denied.

Provided the right policies are formulated and properly implemented, ensuring openness and transparency, we would not be short of resources to solve our problems. It is also prudent to recollect Benjamin Franklin’s quote: Honesty is the best policy.