Business

Central Bank sets its macroeconomic projections in a firm direction

Published

3 years ago

2023/08/9

Sahan Weerasooriya

But warns of uncertainty surrounding forecasts of given variables

by Sanath Nanayakkare

After the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) recently set a more inclusive and predictable Monetary Policy under the new CBSL Act, the business community appears to be taking their cue from the Bank’s medium term economic projections as was evident by the increased buying interest at the Colombo Stock Exchange when the market opened trading for the week on August 7.

On August 3, Dr. P. K. G. Harischandra, Director of Economic Research at the Central Bank of Sri Lanka said that CBSL’s latest Monetary Policy Report would give guidance to financial markets and other stakeholders as to how inflation and price stability would behave in the medium term (next 2-3 years), and therefore, they could assess future trends in the economy while evaluating the matrix of downside risks and upside risks in their investment and business decisions.

“Anchoring inflation expectations is a key element in the Monetary Policy framework. We will be focusing on the need to stabilize inflation expectations in businesses and households alike,” he said on 3rd August addressing journalists at a technical discussion on the Monetary Policy Report.

Illustrating Inflation fan charts for the medium term, Dr. Harischandra said,”CBSL arrives at macroeconomic projections including that of inflation, using a semi-structural macroeconomic model. These projections are usually updated on a quarterly frequency along with the release of GDP data. Projections are arrived at using released data, projections of major global indicators, near-term forecasts of selected variables and judgments,” he said.

However, he pointed out that forecasts are uncertain by nature, which is represented by the confidence intervals, and this uncertainty needs to be taken into consideration when such forecasts are used for various purposes.

“As per latest projections, inflation is expected to reach single digit levels in Q3 2023, and will stabilize at the desired levels over the medium term. So, when inflation stabilizes over the medium term, interest rates also will move in line with it. A major element here is the risk factors on the forecasts. Sometimes the actual figures could differ from the baseline forecasts. We explain such risks in the Monetary Policy report, he said.

Dr. Harischandra noted that CBSL would build up credibility of the projections process through increased communication with the public ensuring a high level of transparency.

“Going forward, we will be publishing a forecast and when we receive actual data in the coming weeks and months, we will be able to see the difference between our forecasts and actual data. Yes, there may be some difference as our projections may not be 100% accurate. We will then explain why any such deviations from the forecasts have happened. And then we can refer to what adjustments are needed on the medium term forecasts for the benefit of the public and businesses. Through this process, we are committed to increasing the transparency and credibility of the Monetary Policy and our projections. Because when we commit ourselves to a medium term target, we have an accountability to achieve it. That is a requirement of the Monetary Policy.”

Speaking further Dr. Harischandra said, “In addition to maintaining price stability, there will be other policy coordination, and we will be creating a platform for discussions in order to support decision making in broader terms”

“In June 2023, Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI) was 12%. In July it came down to 6.3%. The core inflation declined to 6.1%. Within this month, we expect that it will come into the targeted range. When headline inflation came down to 6.3%, food inflation became a negative 1.4%. Non-food has gone up by 19.5%, but transportation is a negative 9.3%. These reasons, prudent policies on the fiscal front and the inflation base effect in 2022 mainly brought inflation down. People ask if inflation has decelerated why prices aren’t coming down. We say at every forum that a fall in inflation is not necessarily about a fall in prices of all commodities across the board. Prices of some consumer items have declined notably giving relief to the consumers and prices of some other items have slowed the rate of increase in prices. Overall, there are no price shocks now. Journalists also have a task in communicating this properly to the public because it is a huge incomprehension that a fall in inflation is a fall in prices of everything.”

“Each economy needs some inflation. If there is negative inflation nobody will invest and produce because if prices keep coming down there will be losses. So, no country targets negative inflation. But as we came from a very high inflation to lower inflation, there was some negative inflation. A good rule of thumb for any country is not to let the price of the overall basket to get negative inflation because the consequences of that could ripple through the economy.”

Dr. Harishchandra told The Island Financial Review that the exchange rate of the US dollar to LKR won’t see much of an adverse effect when the government begins to make foreign debt repayments because the Domestic Debt Optimization programme is designed to withstand such risk.

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Business

PM ‘Rings the Bell’ at CSE to champion financial literacy and investor education

Published

8 hours ago

2026/10/7

Sahan Weerasooriya

P.M. Dr.Harini Amarasuriya

As part of World Investor Week (WIW) 2026, the Securities and Exchange Commission of Sri Lanka (SEC) and the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) joined stock exchanges around the world in ringing the market opening bell for financial literacy on 5 October 2026, under the patronage of Dr. Harini Amarasuriya, Prime Minister of the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka.

World Investor Week is an annual global campaign led by the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) to raise awareness of the importance of investor education and investor protection. The “Ring the Bell for Financial Literacy” initiative, pioneered by the World Federation of Exchanges (WFE), brings together stock exchanges and other stakeholders worldwide to promote greater financial literacy and encourage individuals to make informed financial decisions.

The ceremony also marked the 40th anniversary of the CSE and the joint launch by the SEC and the CSE of the Stock Market Game, an online stock market simulation based on the ATrad trading system.

The Stock Market Game enables participants to gain practical experience of how the stock market works, make investment decisions and construct portfolios of listed shares without using real money. The platform is accessible through the websites of the SEC and CSE and is expected to serve as an important practical tool for promoting financial education. It is envisaged that the Stock Market Game will also be used to conduct simulation competitions among universities and the 100 Capital Market Clubs established in schools across the country.

The ceremony also featured the commemorative issuance of a stamp and First Day Cover to mark the 40th anniversary of the CSE. Issued in collaboration with the Department of Posts and the Philatelic Bureau of Sri Lanka, the commemorative stamp and First Day Cover were presented to Prime Minister Dr. Harini Amarasuriya, by the SEC Chairman Snr. Prof. D.B.P.H. Dissabandara and Ray Abeywardena, Director CSE and Chairman of Central Depository Systems (CDS).

Welcoming the gathering, Rajeeva Bandaranaike, Chief Executive Officer of the CSE, highlighted the importance of obtaining reliable information when making investment decisions.

“We operate in a digital world where a vast amount of information and data is disseminated through social media. While some of this information is factual, some may be inaccurate or misleading. When investing in the stock market, it is essential to make informed and prudent investment decisions. Therefore, investors should obtain information and data from reliable and responsible sources and persons before making investment decisions.”

Addressing the gathering, SEC Chairman Snr. Prof. D.B.P.H. Dissabandara emphasised that the SEC’s role extends beyond regulation to facilitating the further development of the capital market.

“The SEC needs to determine how best to introduce the stock market to Generation Alpha, Generation Beta and generations beyond. When it comes to investors, we need to build confidence in the market, because people will invest only when they have confidence in the market.’’

Business

Rs. 5 million worth of prizes to be given at 8th edition of CSE Masterminds Quiz Competition

Published

8 hours ago

2026/10/7

Sahan Weerasooriya

The Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) has announced that the eighth edition of the CSE Masterminds Quiz will be held on 9th October 2026, from 3.00 p.m. onwards, at the Main Ballroom, Shangri-La Colombo.

Recognised as Sri Lanka’s premier capital market quiz competition, CSE Masterminds brings together teams from the public and private sectors. Participants will be tested across international business, global markets, current affairs, the Sri Lankan economy and business, the Sri Lankan stock market, and sports and entertainment, before a concluding rapid-fire round.

This year the winning team can win up to Rs. 2,000,000, the runners-up up to Rs. 1,000,000, and the second runners-up Rs. 750,000. Sector awards will also be presented to the highest-performing team from each participating sector. Guest participants will also be able to compete in rounds of Audience questions, and will have the opportunity to participate a raffle draw for three free return tickets provided by Fits Aviation (Pvt) Ltd.

The evening will also include an exclusive after-party with live music provided by the band ‘Doctor’ featuring guest performer Umara Sinhawansa, fine food and beverages, providing an opportunity for networking and celebration. Every participant will receive a premium goodie bag made possible by the support of the event’s sponsorship partners. Collectively, the event will feature over Rs. 5 million worth of prizes, rewards, and giveaways, encompassing championship prizes, sector awards, audience engagement prizes, raffle draw offerings, and goodie bags.

Sponsorship partners include:

Platinum Sponsors: Hatton National Bank PLC and Bartleet Religare Stockbrokers (Pvt) Ltd.

Gold Sponsors: Ex-Pack Corrugated Cartons PLC, Asha Securities Ltd., and Lanka Securities (Pvt) Ltd.

Silver Sponsors: Barista Coffee Lanka (Pvt) Ltd., Capital Trust Holdings (Pvt) Ltd., LOLC Holdings PLC, Arpico Ataraxia Asset Management (Pvt) Ltd., IronOne Technologies (Pvt) Ltd., and LankaPay (Pvt) Ltd.

Co-Sponsors: Access Engineering PLC, Bank of Ceylon, Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC, CryptoGen (Pvt) Ltd., Deloitte Lanka (Private) Limited, Dialog Finance PLC, Efutures (Pvt) Ltd., People’s Leasing & Finance PLC, Senfin Asset Management (Pvt) Ltd., and Softlogic Stockbrokers (Pvt) Ltd.

Business

NCCSL to conduct practical workshop on food labelling and advertising regulations in Sri Lanka

Published

8 hours ago

2026/10/7

Sahan Weerasooriya

The National Chamber of Commerce of Sri Lanka (NCCSL) is organizing a one-day practical workshop on “Food Labelling & Advertising Regulations in Sri Lanka” on Thursday, 8th October 2026 from 9.00 a.m. to 4.30 p.m. at the National Chamber of Commerce, Colombo 10. The workshop has been organised to provide a practical understanding of the latest regulatory requirements governing the food products labelling and advertising of food products in Sri Lanka, with particular attention to regulatory developments applicable in 2026, compliance requirements, and the potential legal and financial implications of non-compliance.

As food products increasingly compete not only with quality and price but also on packaging, labelling and promotional claims, businesses must ensure the information they communicate to consumers is accurate, transparent and consistent with applicable regulatory requirements. Understanding these requirements is therefore essential for businesses seeking to protect their brands, maintain consumer confidence, and minimize regulatory and legal risks.

The practical workshop will go beyond an overview of regulations and focus on how businesses can apply regulatory requirements in their day-to-day operations. Participants will be guided through key areas of food regulatory compliance, including the national food regulatory framework, recent food labelling regulations and key changes, mandatory approvals and prohibitions relating to food labelling, and the litigation process associated with regulatory violations. The programme will also cover several areas of growing importance to the food industry, including the EU EMPCO Directive, food colour coding regulations, regulations relating to food trans-fatty acids and the importance of compliance in the use of food additives. Practical exercises will further enable participants to apply their knowledge to real-world compliance situations and strengthen their ability to identify potential regulatory concerns.

For further information and registration, please contact the National Chamber of Commerce of Sri Lanka on 011 4741788 – Nethmi or Udula – 071 403 4775.