Business
Central Bank sets its macroeconomic projections in a firm direction
But warns of uncertainty surrounding forecasts of given variables
by Sanath Nanayakkare
After the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) recently set a more inclusive and predictable Monetary Policy under the new CBSL Act, the business community appears to be taking their cue from the Bank’s medium term economic projections as was evident by the increased buying interest at the Colombo Stock Exchange when the market opened trading for the week on August 7.
On August 3, Dr. P. K. G. Harischandra, Director of Economic Research at the Central Bank of Sri Lanka said that CBSL’s latest Monetary Policy Report would give guidance to financial markets and other stakeholders as to how inflation and price stability would behave in the medium term (next 2-3 years), and therefore, they could assess future trends in the economy while evaluating the matrix of downside risks and upside risks in their investment and business decisions.
“Anchoring inflation expectations is a key element in the Monetary Policy framework. We will be focusing on the need to stabilize inflation expectations in businesses and households alike,” he said on 3rd August addressing journalists at a technical discussion on the Monetary Policy Report.
Illustrating Inflation fan charts for the medium term, Dr. Harischandra said,”CBSL arrives at macroeconomic projections including that of inflation, using a semi-structural macroeconomic model. These projections are usually updated on a quarterly frequency along with the release of GDP data. Projections are arrived at using released data, projections of major global indicators, near-term forecasts of selected variables and judgments,” he said.
However, he pointed out that forecasts are uncertain by nature, which is represented by the confidence intervals, and this uncertainty needs to be taken into consideration when such forecasts are used for various purposes.
“As per latest projections, inflation is expected to reach single digit levels in Q3 2023, and will stabilize at the desired levels over the medium term. So, when inflation stabilizes over the medium term, interest rates also will move in line with it. A major element here is the risk factors on the forecasts. Sometimes the actual figures could differ from the baseline forecasts. We explain such risks in the Monetary Policy report, he said.
Dr. Harischandra noted that CBSL would build up credibility of the projections process through increased communication with the public ensuring a high level of transparency.
“Going forward, we will be publishing a forecast and when we receive actual data in the coming weeks and months, we will be able to see the difference between our forecasts and actual data. Yes, there may be some difference as our projections may not be 100% accurate. We will then explain why any such deviations from the forecasts have happened. And then we can refer to what adjustments are needed on the medium term forecasts for the benefit of the public and businesses. Through this process, we are committed to increasing the transparency and credibility of the Monetary Policy and our projections. Because when we commit ourselves to a medium term target, we have an accountability to achieve it. That is a requirement of the Monetary Policy.”
Speaking further Dr. Harischandra said, “In addition to maintaining price stability, there will be other policy coordination, and we will be creating a platform for discussions in order to support decision making in broader terms”
“In June 2023, Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI) was 12%. In July it came down to 6.3%. The core inflation declined to 6.1%. Within this month, we expect that it will come into the targeted range. When headline inflation came down to 6.3%, food inflation became a negative 1.4%. Non-food has gone up by 19.5%, but transportation is a negative 9.3%. These reasons, prudent policies on the fiscal front and the inflation base effect in 2022 mainly brought inflation down. People ask if inflation has decelerated why prices aren’t coming down. We say at every forum that a fall in inflation is not necessarily about a fall in prices of all commodities across the board. Prices of some consumer items have declined notably giving relief to the consumers and prices of some other items have slowed the rate of increase in prices. Overall, there are no price shocks now. Journalists also have a task in communicating this properly to the public because it is a huge incomprehension that a fall in inflation is a fall in prices of everything.”
“Each economy needs some inflation. If there is negative inflation nobody will invest and produce because if prices keep coming down there will be losses. So, no country targets negative inflation. But as we came from a very high inflation to lower inflation, there was some negative inflation. A good rule of thumb for any country is not to let the price of the overall basket to get negative inflation because the consequences of that could ripple through the economy.”
Dr. Harishchandra told The Island Financial Review that the exchange rate of the US dollar to LKR won’t see much of an adverse effect when the government begins to make foreign debt repayments because the Domestic Debt Optimization programme is designed to withstand such risk.
Business
Trade and investment facilitation upgrade seen as needed for SL
Sri Lanka should mainly focus on upgrading its trade and investment facilitation system while identifying the paramount importance of the issue, South Korean Ambassador to Sri Lanka Miyon Lee said.
The bureaucratic matters—from Customs clearance to tariff lines, licensing, and registration—should be streamlined, she said at a round table forum recently held at the Colombo Club of the Taj Samudra, Colombo. The forum was organized and conducted by the Pathfinder Foundation Sri Lanka and was presided over by its Chairman, Ambassador (Retd) Bernard Goonetilleke.
Ambassador Lee said that the Sri Lankan government and companies must focus on tourism sector development and also find businesses opportunities with Korea.
She also said that if Sri Lanka wants to attract Korean investment into Sri Lanka, Sri Lanka should highly develop its digital sector.
‘On top of that, If Sri Lankan is to sign a FTA or trade agreements, she should focus on niche markets to supply to Korean companies, she explained.
Ambassador Lee added: ‘Korea is highly digital and AI enabled and Sri Lanka needs to concentrate on that as well.
‘Further, it is going to be very important if you will be able to implement all the obligations that are laid out under a WTO agreement.
‘A single window is part of the overall trade architecture that Sri Lanka has to follow.
‘ I think that also follows with the FTA (Free Trade Agreement) negotiations. From Korea’s experience, when we had the financial crisis in 1997, we only pursued WTO negotiations. FTA negotiations came after the financial crisis.
‘The Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement (APTA) is important in this regard.
‘The APTA arrangement includes China, India, Korea, Nepal and Mongolia and 50 percent of Sri Lankan exports to South Korea benefit from the APTA.
‘But other than that, there is not much trade between the two countries. That’s why I think it is going to be very important for Sri Lanka to pursue the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) arrangement.
‘Unfortunately, there is not much appetite for upgrading the APTA because we already have separate FTAs with India and China.
‘ We have huge investments in India and in ASEAN countries. I think it would be very important that Sri Lanka uses that kind of opportunity to see if there is any initiative for Sri Lankan companies to provide supplies to Korean companies working in other countries.’
By Hiran H Senewiratne
Business
SL in damage-control mode in wake of financial security crisis
USD 2.5 million Treasury cyber heist has escalated into a full-blown financial security crisis, with the government scrambling to contain international fallout amid growing fears that multiple foreign debt repayment channels may have been compromised.
In the strongest indication yet of the gravity of the breach, Deputy Finance Minister Dr. Anil Jayantha Fernando told Parliament that investigators had uncovered suspicious irregularities linked to other external payment transactions, including one involving India, suggesting that the cyber intrusion may have extended far beyond the original fraudulent transfer.
The revelation has sent shockwaves through financial and political circles at a time when Sri Lanka is struggling to restore credibility after its historic sovereign default and painful debt restructuring process.
The controversial transfer involved funds earmarked for a debt repayment to Australia Export Finance. However, the money was allegedly diverted into a fraudulent account after what authorities now believe was a sophisticated cyber infiltration targeting Treasury communication and payment authentication systems within the External Resources Department (ERD).
With international confidence hanging in the balance, the Government has moved swiftly to reassure creditors that the incident would not be treated as a sovereign debt default.
Fernando informed Parliament that international debt restructuring advisors had assessed the situation and concluded that the theft constituted a criminal financial breach rather than a deliberate failure by Sri Lanka to honour debt obligations.
Behind the scenes, however, the crisis has triggered an unprecedented multi-agency investigation involving the Criminal Investigation Department (CID), Sri Lanka Computer Emergency Readiness Team (SLCERT), Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) and foreign law enforcement authorities, including Australian agencies.
Investigators are now carrying out forensic examinations of official email systems, payment authorisation trails, digital devices and Treasury transaction records amid mounting concerns that critical State financial infrastructure may have been exposed to external manipulation.
The scandal has also intensified political tensions, with opposition parties accusing the Government of attempting to downplay the seriousness of the breach while demanding an immediate parliamentary debate and an independent inquiry into Treasury security failures.
Pressure mounted further following the sudden death of an interdicted Finance Ministry official reportedly connected to the ongoing investigation.
Although authorities have not officially linked the death to the fraud probe, the incident has fuelled widespread speculation and heightened public suspicion surrounding the case.
The latest disclosures have raised troubling questions about the vulnerability of Sri Lanka’s public financial systems, particularly as billions of dollars in foreign debt repayments, aid flows and restructuring transactions continue to pass through Government channels under intense international scrutiny.
Financial analysts warn that while creditors may refrain from categorising the incident as a formal default, the cyber heist could still damage Sri Lanka’s credibility unless authorities demonstrate swift accountability, institutional transparency and robust corrective measures.
The Treasury breach is now being viewed not merely as an isolated fraud, but as a major national financial security threat with potentially far-reaching implications for Sri Lanka’s economic recovery and global standing.
By Ifham Nizam
Business
JKCG Auto partners with BOC and SLIC to support EV adoption
John Keells CG Auto (JKCG Auto), the authorised distributor of BYD and DENZA in Sri Lanka, has launched a campaign in partnership with Bank of Ceylon (BOC) and Sri Lanka Insurance Corporation General Ltd. (SLIC) to accelerate New Energy Vehicles (NEV) adoption among government sector employees.
The initiative, which will run from 4 May to 31 July 2026, is designed to improve accessibility and affordability of NEVs for public servants through a structured set of financing, insurance and ownership support mechanisms.
Open to employees across the government sector, the programme reflects a coordinated effort between industry and national institutions to enable a gradual and practical transition towards cleaner transport options.
As part of the collaboration, JKCG Auto will extend a set of ownership support measures across its BYD and DENZA portfolio, including introductory price considerations, access to home charging infrastructure, and aftersales service support. These are complemented by preferential leasing arrangements facilitated by the Bank of Ceylon, alongside tailored insurance solutions and customer support services from Sri Lanka Insurance Corporation.
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