Features
Roaming the world to tap global experience on peace seeking and Gamini D’s assassination
Douglas Devananda took to his heels in Manila fearing an LTTE gunman was trailing us
1994 saw a new crop of MPs who had political knowledge outside their usual electorate concerns. Most of them had a wider vision than merely serving as providers of food stamps, roads and various other handouts to their voters. International Alert first organized a seminar for about 25 of them in the island of Crete in Greece. Apart from MPs from the SLFP and UNP, representatives of minority communities in Parliament were invited for this seminar.
We were to be introduced to the South African dialogue which resulted in the ending of Apartheid and the establishment of the new multi-racial South African nation under Nelson Mandela. The leader and facilitator of this dialogue was Pravin Gordan, then a senior official of the new republic who was later to be South Africa’s Finance Minister under President M’beki.
Among the participants I remember Rukman Senanayake, Mahinda Samarasinghe ,AnuraYapa, Dullas Alahapperuma,Dilan Perera, Karunasena Kodituwakku and Imtiaz Bakeer Markar. Minority parties were represented by Douglas Devananda, Rauf Hakeem and Hisbullah. The participation of Hisbullah created a problem for us. We were en route to Crete via Frankfurt and Athens. Since Hisbullah was the unofficial leader of our group – he was the Deputy Minister of Telecommunications and the only holder of ministerial rank in the delegation – his passport was submitted first to passport control at Frankfurt Airport.
The passport officer – obviously a newcomer – saw stars when he read Hisbullahs name. He shepherded all of us to a room, shut the door and ran to his superior. An experienced officer came down after some time to find that our motley crew of middle aged parliamentarians were certainly not terrorists. He apologized, stamped our transit visas and put us on the waiting plane to Athens. After that we made sure that Hisbullah’s passport was the last in our bundle of documents. There is an interesting post script to our visit to Greece.
A few days into the meeting we got the startling news about the bombing of the Central Bank in Colombo by the LTTE. We were desperate to get information from Colombo. Fortunately Hisbullah – the Deputy Minister of Telecommunications, was in our delegation and he arranged for all of us to get calls to Colombo. That was particularly important for me because my elder daughter Ramanika was working in the American Express Bank which was across the street from the Central Bank. I spoke to her on the telephone and was relieved to hear that she was safe. However one of her colleagues who was on the ground floor of the bank had been killed in the blast.
Belfast
Our next tour was to Northern Ireland. We all looked forward to this tour as Irish problems were very much in the news then with bombs exploding in London and an attack on the British Parliament itself. Lord Mountbatten and members of his family were killed while holidaying in an Irish village. Strict security measures were in force when we landed in Belfast where the inner city was a “no go zone”. We were whisked away to Bellamina Hotel which was quite far from the city.
On this occasion we were introduced to the leaders of the different contending groups who talked to us about their perceptions of a negotiated settlement. The Irish Catholics who dominated the countryside described their plight as victims of British colonialism. The Scots and English had invaded their land and after bitter battles subjugated them and held them as colonial subjects as in other parts of the globe. Large swathes of fertile land had been acquired by those invaders and we could see the big colonial mansions of the Irish Protestant aristocracy as we drove past the incredibly well maintained parks and greens.
The Protestants who were called “loyalists”as they were loyal to England and English royalty, were economically better off. They initially resorted to violence to maintain their dominance forcing retaliation by the Catholics. Their clashes in Belfast and Londonderry were parts of legends that kept them apart. But by far the main reason for the ethnic conflict was religion. The Sinn Fienn was the political party which represented the Catholics while the IRA was its military arm. The Catholics were larger in number and were encouraged by their coreligionists who were south of the border as the Irish Republic, with the legendary city of Dublin as its capital.
On the other hand the loyalists were fanatics who had contempt for the Catholics who had served as workers in their estates in the past. The status of these virtual slaves was low. Many had to emigrate to the United States during the potato famine to keep alive. The US Irish – including the Kennedys, Clintons and Bidens – were of that stock and they were happy to acknowledge their roots in northern Ireland and was a powerful lobby for a negotiated settlement in the home country which would play well in electoral politics of the US.
Greeting Nobel Prize winner John Hume
While their military units were kept out, political parties of both sides interacted with us often bringing maps and political literature while their gun toting “paras” guarded the perimeter of the hotel. We were not aware that discussions were going on behind the scenes with the Republic of Ireland pushing for an equitable solution for the Catholics. Indeed it was the recognition of the role of the Republic that paved the way for a settlement after Labour won a landslide victory under Tony Blair in 1987.
Finally an agreement called the “Good Friday Accord” were negotiated in 1988 with greater representation for the Catholics. This minutae of the negotiations were of much interest to us and meetings with Mc Guiness, Gerry Adams’ deputy, was a high point of our tour. Adams the IRA leader sent us autographed copies of his recently published biography “Fire in the Hills” as a memento. This book is now in my library. It reminds me of our memorable visit to Ireland at the height of the murderous conflict which was dominating global news at that time.
Several years later I was able to host John Hume the Irish leader who led the reconciliation process in Ireland and had won the Nobel prize for his effort. We had a meeting and dinner for him in Colombo with the cooperation of the British Embassy here.
Chittagong
International Alert arranged our next meeting in Bangladesh. The Chikma hill tribe of Chittagong were battling the Bangla army. The Chikmas holding the surrounding hills asked for autonomy as they were Buddhists with their own language and culture. Ethnically they were closer to the Kachin and Karen hill tribes who were confronting the Burmese and Thai military in their own countries. This time around our delegation was led by Bertie Dissanayake, a popular leader of the SLFP from Anuradhapura
district. Perhaps the organizers thought that a representative from our Buddhist heartland would be more acceptable to the rebels.
We first landed in Dhaka for consultations with the relevant Bangladeshi officials. They were all staunch Muslims who could not brook the thought of a conclave of Buddhists in their country ignoring the fact that Bangladesh had been founded because Pakistan had refused to recognize their individual language and culture. They too, like the Pakistanis, were set on a military solution to this ethnic crisis. I had done some research on Buddhism in the colonial period and knew that this area which was called Cox Bazaar by the British was part of old Arakan which was a Buddhist centre. In the colonial period Arakanese had been drawn to Calcutta which was the locus of a modern Buddhist revival, thanks to the Mahabodhi Society led by Anagarika Dharmapala.
We then left by bus to Chittagong. On the way we stopped at the site of the famous ancient Buddhist centre called Somapura Mahavihara. It was on a par with Nalanda, Vikramashila and Jaggadala Buddhist monasteries. Our request to visit the Chikma hills was turned down by the military. But we managed to go to a nearby town where some of the Chikma fighters met us. They unanimously sought our help to persuade the Bangladesh government to permit some devolution so that their distinctive identity would be preserved.
Their resources were so meagre that a settlement seemed to be the only way out. Happily, some time later an arrangement was made to accommodate them partly because Chittagong as a main port in the country grew rapidly as a garment hub. With greater economic benefits – including from several Sri Lankan managed garment factories – the Chikma problem was viewed more sympathetically and was eventually solved.
Manila
Our next rendezvous was Manila in the Philipines. The Mindanao rebellion was in full swing. The rebels were Muslims who were persecuted by the Manila authorities. The islands which saw an armed rebellion were closer to Indonesia and the Muslim militants there were funding and arming the rebels while the Philippines administration faced a logistical nightmare to get to the battle zone. We were precluded from visiting Mindanao on the grounds that it would be unsafe – a touching concern we observed in all the trouble spots in Northern Ireland, Bangladesh and now the Philippines.
However when the Filipino academics and security personnel briefed us in Manila it became clear that the solution lay outside their country. Accordingly there were long standing negotiations with Indonesia which were not going anywhere. Manila changed tack later and brought Saudi Arabia in as a mediator and achieved a good result. These discussions were very helpful for us MPs to understand the ramifications of ethnic conflicts and the need for foreign interlocutors. The JVP had earlier used this issue as a pretext to resume their violent activities which had ended in their military defeat and the killing of nearly all of their top leaders. There was a similar ending to the LTTE war.
There is one event which took place in Manila which still remains in my memory. Douglas Devananda and I took a stroll on a Manila street after a discussion session. We had hardly walked a mile when Douglas looked round and started running leaving me flabbergasted. I continued on my journey and came back to the hotel to find Douglas swimming in the hotel pool. When I asked him about his strange behaviour he told me that he had seen a LTTE gunman following us and that he had to run to escape a murder attempt.
To this day I do not know whether it was really so or that Douglas had imagined it. What I can say is that there were several attempts on his life later and that he has escaped them all even though many scars remain on his body to remind him that it was a close call.
Presidential Campaign 1994
The Presidential election was scheduled for November 1994. The two leading candidates were self selected in that both CBK and Gamini became the automatic choices of the two main contending parties. The latter however was under pressure, particularly from his family, to skip this election since at first CBK seemed invincible. However Gamini insisted on contesting and thereby putting his seal on the party, win or lose. We were also aware that there had been many internal disputes in the SLFP. I noticed that Gamini launched his campaign in a very professional manner bringing in Wickreme Weerasooria and Daham Wimalasena who had managed JRJ’s presidential bids.
He also seemed to be ready to outspend his rival whose antipathy to big business was well known. Another of his advantages was that he was indefatigable on the stump. With his financial backing he was using helicopters to crisscross the country and slowly the UNP party machine which had gone to sleep under Wijetunga and Ranil, began to wake up. Many observers opined that he was fast catching up on his rival.
That must have been the analysis of the LTTE as well because they would have only planned to assassinate him thinking that he had a chance of success. They calculated that if he won, Gamini would have India on his side. This was no fancy illusion because he was a firm favourite of the Gandhi family and the Indian Congress. When we celebrated his fiftieth birthday with a “Festschrift” entitled “50; A Beginning” India sent Natwar Singh, its State Minister of Foreign Affairs, to participate in the ceremony in Colombo. They were breaking protocol to honour a friend.
Thotalanga bomb blast
By late October 1994 the Presidential race was coming to its final lap. Both campaigns were in full swing and though CBK with her recent electoral victory appeared to be leading, Gamini was confident that he was catching up. He was pouring money into his campaign and redoubling his efforts to reach out to his supporters. He felt that he needed more time. He also was unhappy that Ranil was not throwing his weight behind the campaign. In fact we received intelligence that he was urging his close supporters to back CBK.
In his usual style Gamini confronted Ranil whom he had nurtured in the party in the early days and asked for his support. I too met Ranil at his house and urged him to support the party candidate. Gamini undertook helicopter rides to cover as much ground as possible in order to catch up on time lost in his battle to get back to the UNP. He overextended himself by trying to cover as many meetings as possible in a day, including late night meetings, which probably cost him his life.
I was with him on the morning of October 24, 1994. We went by helicopter for an early campaign in Kandy district. The first meeting was held in Kundasale presided over by Tissa Attanayake. Attanayake had been a cheerleader for Ranil and Gamini tried his best to win him over by flattering him in his speech. In my speech I introduced Gamini as a “native son” of Kandy, which pleased him. He told me that he planned to leave further campaigning in Kandy to me freeing him to stump in the marginal electorates.
We were joined by Dr. Palitha Randeniya, a Professor at Peradeniya University, who had become the virtual spokesman of a particular Kandyan caste. The three of us then took a short helicopter ride to Maratugoda in the Harispattuwa electorate for a meeting organised by ACS Hameed. The helicopter landed on the sports ground of Maratugoda senior school where a car had been arranged to take us to the venue of the meeting which was about two miles away. On the way we encountered a bad omen in that our car broke down half way and we had to waste time on the road till it was repaired.
To save time Gamini asked permission to speak early in his usual polite way. By this time GM Premachandra who represented the nearby Mawathagama electorate in Kurunegala district where the next meeting was to be held, was on the stage. I had told Gamini that I would not travel back with him by helicopter because my parents were living nearby in Nugawela and my father had wanted me to see him that day. I had a meeting with Eric Solheim arranged by my friend Arne Fjortoft at the Eighty Club that evening. I was in the midst of my speech when Gamini signaled that he was leaving. Since there was an empty seat in the helicopter due to my absence he had persuaded a reluctant Premachandra to join him.
Then a strange thing happened which has been lodged in my memory ever since. After reaching the end of the stage where the steps to the exit were located Gamini unexpectedly turned and walked back to me where I was busy speaking, tapped me on the arm and said that he was taking leave of me. The whole Harispattuwa audience saw that gesture of friendship. From the stage I caught a glimpse of him surrounded by his bodyguards heading towards his car amidst a knot of supporters who were cheering him. That was the last time I saw him alive.
He headed for the helicopter with Premachandra whom he had persuaded to join him on the rest of the tour as my sea twas available. They had returned to Colombo by evening to participate in the last meeting for the day at Thotalanga in the northern suburbs of the city. I had lunch with my parents and left for Colombo by car for my appointment with Eric Solheim. He had visited Myanmar to arrange for Norwegian aid and was interested in the Sri Lankan peace process.
After this visit he shifted his attention to Sri Lanka, and became a household name here. We had dinner and I went home to Siripa Road to sleep. Soon after midnight my bedside phone started ringing and I was shocked to receive the news of a bomb going off at Thotalanga. Many of the calls were to check whether I too had gone for Gamini’s meeting. At first I was told that my friend was alive and had been rushed to hospital. But soon the extent of damage became clear. Gamini was dead on arrival and so were many others including Premachandra and Wijesekere – the Secretary of the party.
My daughter Varuni and her husband Rohan were living in Siripa Road at that time and I persuaded them to quickly drive me to Gamini’s residence in Alfred House gardens. There was pandemonium there. Wickreme Weersooria asked me to go immediately to President’s House to brief Wijetunga. I had barely got there when CBK arrived in an agitated state. She was genuinely shocked and grieved by the assassination. We had a discussion and Wijetunga decided to give every possible state assistance for the funeral. CBK graciously agreed to all the measures that were proposed including a state funeral and a final ceremony in Independence square. I went back to Gamini’s house, sat in a corner in the veranda and could not hold back my tears. No one had expected our long journey to end in this terrible fashion.
After several days of “lying in state” when a large concourse of people filed past the bier the cremation was held in Independence square. The family wanted me to speak at the ceremony. Other speakers were several monks, Wijetunga, Ranil and a representative of the SLFP. N. Ram from Chennai flew down and joined me on the drive to Independence square. In my speech I invoked Gamini’s journey from Kotmale to the highest echelons of power. He was a model for every Sri Lankan young man. His achievements including the completion of the Mahaweli project, will remain in our memory.
It was a sad and emotional time for all of us and we went home exhausted to contemplate an uncertain future which had looked happily predictable only a week ago. I must place on record here that CBK acted with great sympathy during this period quite unlike the behaviour of Mrs. B and her Cabinet when they reacted shabbily to Dudley Senanayake’s death and funeral arrangements in the early seventies.
(Excerpted from vol. 3 of the Sarath Amunugama autbiography) ✍️
Features
Dilemmas of ‘hurting economies’ – the case of Sri Lanka
Maldives President Dr. Mohamed Muizzu was in Sri Lanka recently on what was apparently a goodwill visit and this event, no doubt, bodes very well for Maldives-Sri Lanka relations. Besides, the visit would go some distance in strengthening Sri Lanka’s claims to Non-Alignment.
However, the commentator on regional politics could be accused of simplistic thinking if he/she glosses over or ignores the regional politics nuances or undertones of the Maldivian President’s visit. In Sri Lanka we currently have a government which is eager to solidify its bridges, so to speak, with China and which, given the chance, would be courting increasingly close relations with Russia. In other words, the NPP government is likely to see itself as a ‘natural ally’ of the East and would prefer to distance itself to the extent possible from the West, if that is a realistic proposition.
Given the foregoing backdrop, it would be in some of the NPP regime’s best interests to be on cordial terms with the Maldives which is a close ally of China in the South Asian region. However, the NPP government, given the utter financial helplessness of Sri Lanka, cannot afford to distance itself politically and diplomatically from India and the West. Sheer economic necessity compels Sri Lanka to adopt this foreign policy stance. In other words, the latter has no choice but to be ‘Non-Aligned.’
This columnist was led to the above observations on listening to a lucid and comprehensive presentation titled, ‘A Global Economy in the Shadow of the Iran War and implications for Sri Lanka’s debt recovery’, by Dr. Ganeshan Wignaraja, Visiting Senior Fellow, ODI Global London, at the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies (RCSS), Colombo on May 4th. The forum, RCSS Strategic Dialogue – 4, was moderated and presided over by RCSS Executive Director Ambassador (retd) Ravinatha Aryasinha.
The forum brought together a wide cross section of society, including diplomatic personnel, academicians, public and private sector personalities and the media. After the presentation a very lively and informative Q&A followed.
Ambassador Aryasinha at the outset set an appropriate backdrop to the presentation and discussion by stressing ‘the increasing interconnectedness of geopolitical and economic developments, noting how disruptions in the Middle East could have significant ramifications for global markets, trade flows, energy prices and broader economic stability, including Sri Lanka.’
Indeed, there are occurring currently very disruptive economic and material consequences for the world from ‘the Iran War’, and with US-Iran hostilities spiraling in West Asia it may not be wrong to surmise that the worst could be yet to come, unless a peace process materializes in earnest.
Meanwhile, ‘hurting countries’ such as Sri Lanka would need to summon their best economic management capabilities to remain materially and economically afloat. ‘Economic transformation’ is what is urgently needed and not mere management and some of the insights thrown up by Dr. Ganeshan Wignaraja should have the local polity thinking.
There was the following observation, for instance: ‘Sri Lanka has achieved remarkable cyclical stabilization but faces critical challenges in transitioning to transformative growth, with 2027-2028 debt repayments looming and only $5.4 billion usable reserves.’
Needless to say, the path ahead to ‘transformative growth’ for Sri Lanka is strewn with multiple challenges and meeting them effectively is of the first importance. Sri Lanka must soldier on towards even a semblance of development in the short and medium terms and such initiatives cannot be separated from its foreign policy choices since the country’s economic partners and their growth prowess have a close bearing on the country’s material fortunes.
As mentioned, Sri Lanka will be compelled to be ‘a friend of all countries and an enemy of none’ going forward but it cannot afford to be seen as cultivating China as a close growth partner at the expense of India and other major economies of the region.
This is primarily because while India is remaining a major economic power, the current West Asian crisis notwithstanding, China’s economy is being seen as ‘slowing’. Dr. Wignaraja singled out the following in the main as the factors causing this slow-down: a bursting property bubble, increasing state regulation, and weakening investor confidence. Besides, the speaker sees production cycles moving away from China and India replacing China and Hong Kong as ‘manufacturing hubs’.
Accordingly, the NPP regime in Sri Lanka would need to craft its regional policy in particular with the utmost far-sightedness. It will need to have close economic links with all the growth centres that matter.
On the question of authentic economic transformation, the following observations of Dr. Wignaraja on Sri Lanka’s economy are of the first importance as well: ‘Foreign reserves are now at $ 5.4 billion, the cost of living is high, an estimated 20 per cent of the population lives below the poverty line of $ 3.65 per day, the recent cyber security breach at the Treasury would affect some 10 payments.’ These factors were termed ‘critical vulnerabilities’.
It is difficult to conceive of an economic transformation worthy of the phrase minus a steady economic empowerment of the populace. The above data point to the considerable magnitude of the local poverty problem. Right now, the disruptive effects of the West Asian crisis render swift poverty alleviation a most difficult proposition.
One possible way out of the present economic debacle is the forging of a national consensus by the present government on all outstanding problems that have been bedeviling the country’s advancement. That is, there needs to be a meeting of minds across current political divides. Considering the present inflammatory political polarities in Sri Lanka this would prove an insurmountable challenge.
Unfortunately, conscience-filled and civic minded sections in Sri Lanka have chosen to be laid back rather than seize the initiative, come centre stage and impress on politicians the need for enlightened governance and progressive change. There needs to be a historic coming together of the right thinking to ensure that the best interests of the people and of the people only are served by governments. In the absence of such a process, might would be projected as right and brute force would come to increasingly rule politics and society.
Features
Australia funds project to restore climate-resilient vegetable livelihoods in cyclone-affected highlands
The Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Lands and Irrigation, the Government of Australia, and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) have launched of a AUD 2 million (USD 1.4 million) recovery initiative to restore and transform vegetable production systems in the cyclone-affected districts of Nuwara Eliya and Badulla.
The FAO said yesterday (5) that the agreement was formalized through the signing of the grant agreement by Matthew Duckworth, Australian High Commissioner to Sri Lanka, and Vimlendra Sharan, FAO Representative for Sri Lanka and the Maldives, alongside the signing of the project document by D. P. Wickramasinghe, Secretary of Agriculture.
Cyclone Ditwah, which struck Sri Lanka in November 2025, caused widespread devastation across the country, severely disrupting agricultural production systems and livelihoods. The highland districts of Nuwara Eliya and Badulla, key suppliers of vegetables such as beans, carrots, leeks, cabbage, tomato and potato, were among the hardest hit, with thousands of smallholder farmers losing crops, seed stocks, and productive assets.
This 12-month initiative aims torestore and strengthen climate-resilient vegetable production systems, with a strong focus on empowering women farmers and supporting persons with disabilities. The project will directly benefit more than 2,400 smallholder farmers, through improved seed and seedling production systems, small machinery, training, and market linkages while indirectly supporting thousands more.
“This initiative is an important step not only in restoring what was lost, but in building a more resilient and self-reliant agricultural sector,” said Minister Lal Kantha. “By strengthening local seed systems and supporting smallholder farmers, particularly women and vulnerable groups, we are investing in the long-term sustainability of Sri Lanka’s food systems.”
“Australia stands alongside Sri Lanka in its ongoing recovery from Cyclone Ditwah,” said High Commissioner Duckworth. “Australia is a steadfast partner in the agriculture sector with its importance for food security, rural development and climate resilience. By focusing on climate smart practices, farmer-led solutions and inclusive economic opportunities, this project will deliver meaningful and lasting benefits to affected communities.
The project will prioritize the restoration of farmer-led seed systems for beans and potatoes, support the re-establishment of both open-field and protected cultivation systems and women led seedling supply nurseries while empowering all farmers with Climate-Smart Good Agricultural Practices (CSGAP) with small scale machinery and input support.
A key feature of the initiative is the establishment of six accessible and inclusive nurseries in Nuwara Eliya and Badulla. These nurseries will serve as sustainable agri-based enterprises, producing high-quality vegetable seedlings while creating new income opportunities and strengthening local input supply chains.
By combining recovery support with long-term resilience measures, the project will help stabilize vegetable production, improve household food security and nutrition, and reduce reliance on imported seeds.
Features
War on Iran may hasten unraveling of New World Order
It took several decades for the US to realise it was losing the war in Vietnam. It took a bit shorter time in Afghanistan. And what is happening in the countries the US and Israel intervened and broke up? The US has been asked to leave Iraq. Syria is talking to Russia about establishing military bases, President al-Sharaa met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow to discuss the project, which is vital for Russian power projection in the Middle East. Libya has been divided into two competing administrative units with the Eastern section actively engaged with Russia in defence matters. The Sudanese government has finalised a 25-year deal to allow a Russian naval facility in the Red Sea in exchange for weapons, including anti-aircraft systems. On the Eastern side of the Red Sea, Yemen remains divided, with the main power center, the Houthis maintaining a staunchly anti-US, anti-Israel stance, while the internationally recognised government remains in exile.
When the Iranian Foreign Minister recently undertook a tour of Pakistan, Oman and Russia, the US wanted to meet him and got ready to send its negotiators Vice President J. D. Vance and his team to Pakistan, but Iranian FM snubbed them and left Pakistan, saying Iran did not want to talk to the US while a blockade of their ports were in place. The Iranian FM met President Putin, who congratulated Iran for courageously defending their country and then phoned US President Trump and told him further attacks on Iran would not be acceptable. During this conversation on April 27, 2026, Putin reportedly warned Trump that further U.S. or Israeli attacks on Iran would have dangerous consequences, according to Al Jazeera). Such a sequence of events would not have been possible in the unipolar world we had in the past.
Furthermore, the damage that Iran has inflicted on the US and Israel in this war would have been unimaginable in the late 20th Century and early 21st Century. Sixteen US military bases spread across Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan and Oman have been either destroyed or severely damaged. Advanced surveillance aircraft and radar systems worth more than $ 2.8 bn were destroyed. This had a far-reaching effect on the war as the US could not use these bases in the war against Iran and also in the defence of its allies in the Gulf.
The attacks on Israel have been equally damaging. In Central Israel and Tel Aviv area multiple attacks targeted military and intelligence assets, resulting in massive damage. Iranian missiles hit the Haifa oil refinery, causing a shutdown, and hit residential buildings, leading to injuries and structural damage. Residential and commercial areas were damaged in Bat Yam and Petah Tikva with significant casualties and destruction. Attacks in Dimona and Arad targeted the Negev Nuclear Research Center, with casualties reported in both towns. The Soroka Medical Center in Beersheba was hit in a strike. The strategic port and naval base in Eilat were targeted. In Rishon LeZion suburban residential areas suffered extensive damage.
Usually, Israel makes short work of its many enemies in the region, for example it took just six days to defeat the combined military of Egypt, Jordan and Syria in 1967 and grab their land as well. Hamas, Fatah and Palestinians would suffer ignominious defeats if they dare challenge Israel. However, the recent war against Hamas, following a daring wide scale invasion into Israel by Hamas in October 2023, went on for more than two years with no conclusive victory for Israel.
These significant massive military setbacks suffered by the combined forces of the US and Israel have been made possible by the unprecedented advancement in military technology achieved mainly by China and to a degree by Russia as well. Iran has been able to develop ballistic missile systems that could penetrate the “iron dome” that Israel boasted, with technological assistance from China and North Korea. Iran’s drones are very cheap yet very effective, requiring interceptors worth millions of dollars to counter them, thus making it much more costly for the US to fight this war than it is for Iran.
Further, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthies in Yemen and Hamas in Palestine are well equipped with advanced missiles and drones. Hezbollah has been able to destroy about hundred Israel tanks and stop their advance. According to Larry Johnson, former CIA intelligence analyst, Israel soldiers are much war weary and mentally affected and are being withdrawn. Netanyahu’s 40 year dream of a “Greater Israel” is telling on the poor soldiers.
If a person like Barack Obama had been the US President instead of the hyper egoistic, blustering, intellectually barren Trump, things may have been different. An attempt would have been made to reconcile with the fact that the world is changing, instead of trying to stop it and make “America Great Again”. Perhaps, it could be said that Trump is facilitating the emergence of the new world order by enabling the US citizens to see the reality, the futility of war and the fact that Israel is a liability because the US is fighting its war. Further, the war has enabled Iran to assert its place in the region and negotiate from a position of strength.
Perhaps, Israeli people may realise that the Palestine problem cannot be solved by militarily occupying their land, and that in a changing world a “Greater Israel” is a “pie in the sky”. They may have to agree to a two-state solution. US support may not always be forthcoming, certainly not at the level that Trump could extend, as this war is very unpopular and expensive. The other very significant fact is that Israeli settlers in the occupied lands feel insecure and one in three wants to leave and the numbers may grow when Palestinians and their sympathisers grow in strength in the new world order.
Moreover, the war on Iran has afforded China the opportunity to demonstrate with authority the fact that it stands for universal peace and does not tolerate illegal wars. Its message to the US conveyed its world view and its desire for peace in no uncertain terms. Trump cannot afford to disregard the Chinese position on the war on the eve of his visit to that country which may decide on future trade between the two countries as the US depends on China for several essential materials like rare earth minerals. Furthermore, China has shown that peace could be achieved by developing the economies of the underdeveloped countries irrespective of their alliances. It helps Iran as well as Saudi Arabia and try to build bridges between these foes. It welcomes Trump in the coming weeks and hopes to strengthen ties between the two countries despite the weaknesses of the latter.
Another important factor is the gradual decline of the critical value of the petro-dollar. Following the end of the gold standard in 1971, the US struck deals with Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations (around 1974) to price oil exclusively in USD in exchange for military protection and arms sales. Dollars earned by selling oil came to be known as petro-dollar. Oil producers, holding large dollar surpluses, reinvest these funds in the US Treasury securities, real estate, and financial assets ensuring the recycling of petro-dollars. The system ensures a consistent global demand for US dollars, which helps fund the US budget deficit and maintains the currency’s dominance.
However, the petro-dollar system is on the decline and there are two main reasons for this, firstly the gradual rise of the new world order with organisations like BRICS, making a concerted effort to extricate from the dollar dominance by developing alternate currencies and methods to bypass the dollar. Secondly, the need felt by most countries to develop alternative energy sources to replace enormously harmful fossil fuel would eventually result in a decline in the demand for it and consequently the effectiveness of the petro-dollar. China is leading the world in both these endeavours; depolarisation process and renewable energy production. The war on Iran seems to have hastened the process of depolarisation as Iran insists that it will sell its oil for yuan only.
These revolutionary changes in the aftermath of the Iran war have their undeniable implications for the Global South, where more than 60% of the poor live.
by N. A. de S. Amaratunga
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