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Ranil is running out of time and tricks, now it’s time the people had their say

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by Rajan Philips

The first part of the title needs no elaboration. The second part is an unfolding question that has many answers to it, and which one of them will eventually prevail also depends on multiple factors. Objective circumstances, agency roles and subjective leadership moves are all at play. The simplest way to exit in politics is to resign. No amendment, no majority, or no referendum is needed.

The last President, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, unwittingly established a new precedent in Sri Lankan politics when he resigned from office after running away from it. All that said, Sri Lankans could also be thankful to Mr. Rajapaksa for leaving the way he did, unlike say Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel whose belligerence has created the most explosive situation for the region and the world in the 21st century.

No one is expecting President Wickremesinghe to resign before his carryover term from his predecessor is over. But there are plenty of speculations and suspicions about Mr. Wickremesinghe’s political intentions and the tricks that he might play to extend his stay in power. When it comes to elections, no matter what elections, no one has a clue about what the President is going to do. The truth is even the President may not be knowing what he is going to do, because he is constantly looking for winning conditions for him to call an election.

The tricks he plays!

For Ranil Wickremesinghe, winning conditions are hard to come by. Absolute power has come to him late in life, but there is no assurance of winning an election in spite of his powers and even after such a long time in politics. The alternative to not winning an election is not to have an election. Or keep changing election timing to improve winning chances. President Wickremesinghe has been trying everything. And he has everyone else chasing whatever election rabbit he pulls out of his scheming cap.

He cancelled the local government elections without saying anything about it, while letting everyone else agitate over it. He floated the idea about provincial council elections to keep everyone guessing. He got his sidekicks to spread rumours about advancing the presidential election even though as an interim president he is not entitled to do so.

Then came suggestions that he might try to advance the timing through a constitutional amendment. That was a dead end move because there was never going to be two-thirds majority support for it in parliament, where the opposition parties have been clamouring for parliamentary elections to be held after local government elections.

The one power that the President now has is to dissolve parliament and have new parliamentary elections. Mr. Wickremesinghe will not do that because he cannot put together a winning coalition, and the MPs who are supporting him in parliament now are scared to face an election. So, he opens a new window for distraction – electoral reforms, which have now taken a life of their own with the gazetted appointment of a Presidential Commission that is tasked to complete its work before April, unwittingly, but also fittingly for April Fools day, 2024!

In between came suggestions for abolishing the presidency, because the President is said to have figured out that he is not likely to get more than 50% votes on the first count, and he is not going to be high in the second or third preferences of those who are not going to vote for him in the first place. Put another way, Ranil Wickremesinghe is not the first, second or third best presidential candidate to a majority of Sri Lankan voters. That seems to be the assessment of all the president’s men. Hence the move to abolish it, as the last resort.

Mr. Wickremesinghe has played the abolition card before – in the dying days of the yahapalana government, when he suggested abolition after the UNP decided on Sajith Premadasa as its presidential candidate for the November 2019 presidential election. It became a laughing proposition then. Even Mangala Samaraweera laughed out loud.

This time, Anura Kumara Dissanayake has made a brilliant counter proposition that a constitutional amendment to abolish the ‘executive presidency’ should be coupled with the dissolution of parliament leading to a new general election.

The election itself could be coupled with a referendum on abolishing the executive presidency. To be clear, abolishing the executive presidency means only removing the elected presidency and reducing its powers to those appropriate for a head of state in a parliamentary democracy. To be clear as well, such a reform of the presidency should not require a referendum, as argued expertly by Dr. Nihal Jayawickrama in the Sunday Island last week.

Even so, there will be no harm in piggybacking a referendum question on presidential reform during a parliamentary election. A clear referendum result will put an end to a very longstanding question. In any event, the abolition kite never took off, let alone flew.

Finally, the nation, or nations, heard from the horse’s mouth that there will be elections, that is the presidential and parliamentary elections as and when they are due. Addressing the Special General Convention of the United National Party at the Sugathadasa Indoor Stadium in Colombo, last Saturday (October 21), President Wickremesinghe reportedly “outlined the timeline for upcoming elections in line with the constitutional provisions” – presidential election in 2024, followed by parliamentary elections, and local government elections in the first half of 2025. One would think that the President was not merely repeating the constitutional timeline for presidential and parliamentary elections which most people know, and that he was implicitly confirming that the two elections will be held as they come due.

Many are understandably skeptical and unsure if the President is being sincere or whether he is pulling another fast one. Like how he shooed away the local government elections. The sudden appointment of a new, nine-member commission on election reforms headed by former Chief Justice Priyasath Dep, certainly reinforces people’s skepticism about the President’s sincerity.

The specific tasking of the commission to make study the potential for enabling concurrent representation in both the parliament and the provincial councils is yet another example of Mr. Wickremesinghe’s presidential panache for making seemingly innovative, but which are in fact nonsensical suggestions. This might be the reason why there seems to have been no mention of provincial council elections at the UNP convention. There may not be any mention of them at all until we find out if the President is serious about enabling elected representatives to be concurrent members of both the parliament and the provincial councils.

Smart Dekma

Let us look at it another way. The theme of the UNP convention was “Smart Country – 2048.” One would have thought that country has seen the last of such cliches after the sensational collapse of Gota’s “Saubhagyaye Dekma” nonsense. Now we have the new Ranil version – Smart Country 2048, in pure English. Thankfully, it is not being splashed across the country as the Gota prototype was.

That is also because the UNP now is mostly a one-man state show. It does not have the prop up of 6.9 million who voted for Gotabaya Rajapaksa or 5.5 million who voted for Sajith Premadasa. Put another way, Smart Country has little chance of blossoming into a winning national platform.

My point here is something else. 2048 is the President’s target year for Sri Lanka reaching economic self-reliance and take off. With all the focus on the digital, the take off could turn out to be a virtual one. To make this a real one many concrete steps and short flights will have to be taken for the next 25 years starting from now. But we haven’t heard anything by way of a concrete plan or program from the President. Nor has the President demonstrated that he is assembling a political team that is worthy of the grand economic project that he claims he is launching.

There is nothing transparent about the team the President might be having outside parliament. And everything is transparent about the team of MPs that he has in parliament – their corruption, incompetence and their becoming increasing unelectable. The President has not articulated anything about whether the current political system and the institutional machinery are adequate for the grand purpose of delivering economic liberation by 2048.

Nor has there been any hint of what might come after him, for after all he is not expecting to be around till the day of deliverance in 2048. All that the country has had from him, politically speaking, is one trick after another to scupper one election or another. The last of them is the President’s recitation of the election timeline at the UNP convention.

So, it is understandable that there are criticisms and concerns that the President is pulling another fast one on the people. And the political counter to the President’s manoeuvres and machinations has already started. The time for fast ones is over, and there should not be any more postponement of elections. The President’s manoeuvres are likely to be countered both within parliament and outside parliament.

The opposition parties could request the Election Commission to make early announcement of election timelines – voter registration, nominations, and polling date, to keep the pressure on the President not to cancel or postpone the presidential election or the parliamentary election. The forthcoming budget process and debate could be used to ensure that sufficient funds are allocated for the two elections, and to get repeated commitments from the President that there will be no budgetary excuses to cancel or postpone either the two national elections.

Next to resigning or retiring, the most straightforward exit from power is electoral defeat. Ultimately the people will decide if President Wickremesinghe deserves to stay in office beyond the five year term for which Gotabaya Rajapaksa was elected in November 2019. Mr. Wickremesinghe’s best argument for the people’s vote is that he has managed to restore economic stability from the chaos that was handed to him. But the stability that he is now presiding over is tenuous at best and will not be sustainable when the country starts repaying its debts.

He may have deserved an extended stay in power to look after the economy if he had just done that – look after the economy without playing tricks with elections. Instead, President Wickremesinghe has been using and abusing the power of his office either to avoid facing the electoral test or to bolster his electoral prospects. Now it is time the people got their turn to exercise the power of their vote to say who shall be the next President or who will form the next government.



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‘Proud to be young’ – Beauty queen, lawyer and Botswana’s youngest cabinet minister

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Lesego Chombo‘s enthusiasm for life is as infectious as her achievements are impressive: she has won the Miss Botswana 2022 and Miss World Africa 2024 crowns, is a working lawyer, has set up her own charitable foundation – and made history in November, becoming Botswana’s youngest cabinet minister.

She was just 26 years old at the time – and had clearly impressed Botswana’s incoming President Duma Boko, whose Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) had just won a landslide, ousting the party that had governed for 58 years.

It was a seismic shift in the politics of the diamond-rich southern African nation – and Boko, a 55-year-old Harvard-trained lawyer, hit the ground running.

His main focus, he said, was fixing an economy too reliant on diamonds, telling the BBC ahead of his innauguration that he wanted young people to be the solution – “to become entrepreneurs, employ themselves and employ others”.

Key to this was finding a suitable ambassador – and Chombo was clearly it: a young woman already committed to various causes.

He made her minister of youth and gender.

“I’ve never been more proud to be young,” she told the BBC at the ministry’s headquarters in the capital, Gaborone.

“I’m a young person living in Botswana, passionate about youth development, gender equality, but also so passionate about the development of children.”

The beauty queen did not campaign to be an MP – she is what is called a specially elected member of parliament – and is now one of just six female MPs in the 69-member National Assembly.

Chombo said becoming an MP and then minister came as a complete surprise to her.

“I got appointed by a president who had never met me,” she said.

“Miss World and the journey that I thought I was supposed to pursue as my final destination was only the platform through which I would be seen for this very role.”

It was her crowning as Miss Botswana in 2022 that raised her profile and enabled her to campaign for social change, while trying to inspire other young women.

It also gave her the opportunity to set up the Lesego Chombo Foundation, which focuses on supporting disadvantaged youngsters and their parents in rural areas – and which she is still involved with, its projects funded by corporate companies and others.

“We strive to have a world where we feel seen and heard and represented. I’m very thrilled that I happen to be the very essence of that representation,” she said.

Lesego Chombo/Instagram Lesego Chombo in a black legal gown and white collar. Wearing red lipstick, she is seated on a bench with others in a courtroom and  is looking to the side - not at the camera.
Lesego Chombo, now 27, is an associate at a law firm in Gaborone [BBC]

As she prepared for last year’s Miss World pageant, she said: “I really put myself in the zone of service. I really channelled it for this big crown.”

Now in political office, she is aware of the expectations placed on her in a country where approximately 60% of the population is below 35 years.

It also has a high level of unemployment – 28%, which is even higher for young people and women who have limited economic opportunities and battle systemic corruption.

Chombo said this was something she was determined to change: “Currently in Botswana, the rates of unemployment are so high.

“But it’s not just the rate of unemployment, it’s also just the sphere of youth development.

“It’s lacking, and so my desire is to create an ecosystem, an environment, a society, an economy in which youth can thrive.”

Chombo said her plan was to develop a comprehensive system that nurtured youth-led initiatives, strengthened entrepreneurship and ensured young people had a seat at the table when decisions were being made.

With Botswana’s anti-corruption policy undergoing a rigorous review, she said this would ensure that quotas for young entrepreneurs – when state departments and agencies put out tenders for goods and services – were actually reached.

The government has begun a 10-month forensic audit of government spending that will include 30 state-owned enterprises.

Indeed President Boko is intent on cracking down on corruption, seeing this as a way to bolter investor confidence and diversify the economy – something his deputy has been seeking to do on recent trips to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Switzerland.

And a key deal has now been secured with UAE-based CCI Global, a provider of business process outsourcing, to open a hub in Botswana.

While youth development is a central pillar of her work, gender equity also remains close to her heart.

Her short time in office has coincided with a growing outcry over gender-based violence.

According to a United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) report, over 67% of women in Botswana have experienced abuse, more than double the global average.

“It hurts to know that it could be me next,” she admitted.

A month into her appointment, she was criticised for voting against an opposition motion in parliament to create “peace desks” at police stations and magistrate courts to quickly deal with victims.

At the time she said such provisions already existed within the law and what was needed was more public awareness.

This was followed in January by a police report noting that at least 100 women had been raped and another 10 murdered during the festive season – this caused public outrage with many lashing out at her on social media over the issue.

The minister reiterated – on several occasions, including before parliament in March – that Botswana had many laws and strategies in place and what was important was to ensure these they were actually applied.

But she told the BBC the government would be pushing for the implementation of a Gender-Based Violence Act, aimed at closing legal loopholes that have long hindered justice for survivors.

She said she was also advocating a more holistic approach, involving the ministries of health, education and local government.

“We want curriculums that promote gender equity from a young age,” Chombo said.

“We want to teach children what gender-based violence is and how to prevent it.

“It will boil down to inclusion of teaching gender equity at home, how parents behave around their children, how they model good behaviour.”

Lesego Chombo/Instagram Lesego Chombo  in a blue suit with a Miss World Africa sash bhold the hands of young girls
Lesego Chombo has used her fame to push her projects for social change – focusing on young people [BBC]

She has also been vocal about the need to address issues affecting men, particularly around mental health and positive masculinity, encouraging chiefs “to ensure that our patriarchal culture is not actively perpetuating gender violence”.

“I hear a lot of people say: ‘Why do you speak of women more than men?’

“It’s because as it stands in society, women are mostly prejudiced [against].

“But when we speak of gender equality, we’re saying that it should be applied equally for everyone. But what we strive for is gender equity.”

Chombo, who studied law at the University of Botswana, said she was thankful to her mother and other strong women for inspiring her – saying that women had to work “10 times harder” to succeed.

“[My mother] has managed to create an environment for me to thrive. And growing up, I got to realise that it’s not an easy thing.

“As women, we face so many pressures: ‘A woman cannot do this. A woman can’t do that. A woman can’t be young and in leadership.’ I’m currently facing that.”

She also credited Julia Morley, the CEO of Miss World, for helping her: “She has managed to create a legacy of what we call beauty with a purpose for so many young girls across the world.

“She has just inspired us so deeply to take up social responsibility.”

Chombo is serious about this. The beauty queen-cum-lawyer-cum-minister knows she has made history – but is also aware that her real work has only just begun.

“Impact. Tangible impact. That’s what success would look like to me,” she said.

“I want to look back and see that it is there and it is sustainable. That when I leave, someone else is able to carry it through.”

[BBC]

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Pope Leo XIV – The Second Pope from the Americas

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Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost is Pope Leo XIV

The conclave of 133 Cardinals, 108 of whom were appointed by the late Pope Francis from far flung parts of the world, needed only four rounds of secret ballot to swiftly settle on Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost as the new Pope. They could not have decided on a worthier successor to Pope Francis. The Chicago-born Prevost served as a lifelong missionary in Peru. Pope Francis made Prevost the Bishop of Chiclayo in Peru in 2015, and elevated him to the College of Cardinals eight years later in 2023. He was concurrently appointed as the Prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops, an influential position that looks after the appointment and guidance of Catholic Bishops everywhere.

This past February, the late Pope inducted Cardinal Prevost into the exclusive order of Cardinal Bishops. To Vatican insiders, this was a clear sign of “papal trust and favour” even though the two men of the cloth were not seen as always agreeing on everything.

Americans are lapping it up as the first selection of an American pope in history. Pope Bobby from Chicago. But an early news release from the Vatican would seem to have called Prevost the Second Pope from the Americas. It is Cardinal Prevost’s US-Peruvian dual national status that may have found a strong group of 18 cardinals from Latin America emerging as early supporters and facilitating the quick coalescing to achieve the required support of two-thirds of the cardinals.

The current diversity of the College would have certainly helped and many of the Cardinals apparently saw Prevost as one who would continue the legacy of Francis while reaching out to others who were not wholly inspired by the late pontiff. The new Pope demonstrated both continuity with Francis and a throwback to tradition in his first formal appearance, prayer and blessing from the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica.

Unlike Francis who preferred the plain cassock, Prevost wore the traditional cape and the richly embroidered stole. He referred to his predecessor with genuine affection and respect and echoed Francis’ mission for “building bridges” in a world whose make up ought to be that of “one people.” More telling of the course of the new papacy is Prevost’s selection of Leo as the papal name and becoming Pope Leo XIV. More than 125 years after the last Leo, Pope Leo XIII (1810-1903) who was pontiff from 1878 to 1903 in a long and consequential papacy.

Two weeks ago, in my obituary to Pope Francis, I referred to Rerum Novarum (Rights and Duties of Capital and Labour), the celebrated 1891 encyclical of Pope Leo III. It became the first book of Catholic teaching on social issues. I briefly compared Rerum Novarum to Pope Franci’s 2020 encyclical, “Fratelli Tutti,” (Fraternity and Social Friendship). With the new pope becoming Pope Leo XIV, the new papacy offers the prospect for a new synthesis between the Church’s early teachings on social policy and the tumults of the contemporary world.

Pope Leo or Pope Bobby

Robert Francis Prevost was born in Chicago, in 1955, to parents of Italian, French and Spanish roots. He studied in a high school run by Augustinian priests belong to the Order of St. Augustine, one of the older religious orders in the Church founded by Pope Innocent IV in 1244, and named after the great Saint Augustine (354-430), an intellectual Berber from North Africa and later the celebrated Bishop of Hippo. Prevost went to Villanova University near Philadelphia and obtained a degree in mathematics in 1977. From there, he answered his calling, joined the Catholic Theological Union, an Augustinian seminary in Chicago, for religious studies and ordination as priest in 1981. Prevost became the first CTU alumnus to become Cardinal, and now he is the first Augustinian Pope in Church history. After Francis, the first Jesuit Pope.

At CTU, Prevost earned his degree in Master of Divinity and completed his Doctorate in Canon Law in Rome, at the Dominican University of St. Thomas Aquinas. It was the Augustinian Order that took Prevost to Peru as a missionary, and he has since shuttled between Peru and Chicago. His clerical vocation has combined missionary work, academic stints and administrative roles, including at one point being the head (Prior General) of the worldwide Augustinian Order with headquarters in Rome. As a Bishop in Peru, he won praise as “a moderating influence” between the squabbling factions of Peruvian Bishops who are divided between Liberation Theology, on the left, and Opus Dei, on the right.

Both in Peru and in Chicago, Prevost came under criticism for not acting strongly enough against priests accused of sexual abuse of children, but in both instances he was found to have acted properly by independent parties. Prevost also headed a successful diocesan commission for child protection in Chiclayo, Peru. As Cardinal, Prevost was also considered to be somewhat of an unknown quantity on the internally vexing issues of the church, viz., the ordination of women as deacons or priests, accepting same-sex unions, or allowing the Latin Mass. This may have diluted potential opposition to him by conservative cardinals. As a Pope from Latin America, Francis went farther than any of his predecessors. Given his dual US-Mexican status and experience, the new pope might go even further than Francis.

Outside of the Church, the College of Cardinals may have wanted to project both a missionary and an apostle for the faith, on the one hand, and a world statesman to speak to the secular issues of humanity, on the other. In selecting an American born cardinal as pope, the Vatican might be sending a message to both the church and the state of the United States of America. The new Pope will bring an alternative voice to debates in America over the rights of immigrants and their denial including deportation.

He could also be an antidote to the politically conservative sections of the American Church as well as the growing contingent of Trump’s MAGA Catholics, including some of the Supreme Court justices. Trump has welcomed the selection of an American Pope as “a great honour to the country.” His predecessors, Biden, Obama, Bush and Clinton have been more fulsome in their praises and their wishes for the new papacy. Regardless of politics, to many Americans the new pope could just be their Pope Bobby.

by Rajan Philips

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The NPP keeps winning, India and Pakistan keep fighting

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More revealing than the results of the local government elections are the political reactions to them. There are as many interpretations of the LG election results as there are political pundits constantly looking to chip away at the still budding NPP’s political goodwill. More disturbing than any other world news is the flashpoint on the subcontinent with India and Pakistan seemingly spoiling for yet another border fight between them. For now, each side would seem to have served its military purpose and claimed victory. But belligerent rhetoric continues at the political level and in the social media that now includes the online expansion of the once stoic print medium.

The continuing rhetoric, including India’s for-now largely rhetorical threat to dam the downstream flow of the Indus waters to Pakistan, means that tensions in the subcontinent are not going to ease any time soon. With the current political changes in Bangladesh souring the relationship between Dhaka and Delhi, India is now flanked east and west by recalcitrant neighbours. The landlocked Himalayan countries aside, Sri Lanka might be India’s only friend now in South Asia. Sri Lanka can comfortably sit on the fence, to borrow Jawaharlal Nehru’s felicitous phrase, mind its own business and grow its exports, while avoiding the fruitless diplomatic forays of the 1960s and the non-alignment rhetoric of the 1970s.

Who won the LG Elections?

The answer depends on who is replying. So, here’s mine among several others. One regular commentator in an English newspaper admitted to harbouring reservations that the election of an NPP government may have taken Sri Lanka to seeing the last of a free and fair election in the country. So, with great relief he announced that regardless of the election results the NPP had “passed with flying colours” the test of the “commitment to multiparty democracy”. Not at all funnily, the commentator also asserted that his reservations were “not an unfounded fear, as the experience in many countries, where political fundamentalists or the militant left had won national power, has almost uniformly revealed.”

That in fact flies in face of history of many countries where electoral democracy has been threatened by political fundamentalists of a different kind or militants of the other hand. The darkest current example is of course the US, where an elected president is unabashedly trying to upend the oldest constitutional democracy in the world. Until the Supreme Court put an end to it India’s central governments, especially when Indira Gandhi was Prime Minister, frequently ran roughshod over the functioning of electoral democracy at the state level. Mrs. Gandhi infamously tried that even at the centre by imposing Emergency Rule in 1975.

In Sri Lanka, Prime Minister Sirimavo Bandaranaike, President Jayewardene and President Ranil Wickremesinghe have used different methods to postpone or cancel elections. As for fairness and freeness of elections, it is the (parliamentary) political Left in Sri Lanka that has been their most consistent guardians from the two national elections and the infamous Dedigama by-election before independence, to every election held after independence. It has also been the hallmark of the Sri Lankan Left not to challenge an election result in court.

The JVP emerged as the antithesis to parliamentary democracy, but over the last 20 years it has mellowed, evolved and expanded as the NPP into a practitioner of parliamentary democracy. The JVP’s violence is past, and no one has accused the JVP/NPP of resorting to violence, corruption, vote-purchasing, or vote-impersonation to achieve electoral wins. It is not the best in every political aspect, but it is certainly far better in many aspects than every other political party. And at a time when politics is quite turbulent in many countries including our three large neighbours, Sri Lanka is quite even-keeled. While the people and the voters of Sri Lanka deserve a ton of credit for Sri Lanka’s even-keeled status at present, the NPP government also deserves due credit, perhaps far more than any of its predecessors this century.

Apart from giving credit to the NPP government for not subverting elections and for facilitating political stability, let us also look at some of the interpretive questions that have been raised about the results of the LG elections. There is a hugely feigned surprise that the NPP fell far short of the 61.56% vote share it got in the 2024 parliamentary election and dropping to 43.76% in Tuesday’s LG election. What is conveniently unmentioned is that the voter turnout also fell from 69% in the parliamentary election to 62% in the LG election. In the September 2024 presidential election, the voter turnout was a high 79% and President AKD polled 42.31%.

A parallel take on the election is to compare the results this week and those of the February 2018 LG election that was won by the newly minted SLPP. The point that is emphasized is that the SLPP won that election from the opposition while the NPP fought the recent election with all the resources of the state at its disposal. The fact is also that the UNP and the SLFP then in an unholy tandem government fought the 2018 LG election with all the state resources they could muster and still came up woefully short.

That might be beside the point, but the real point is that the voter turnout in that election was a high 80% and the SLPP polled 40.47% (not 44.6% as mistakenly noted by some), the UNP 29.42% and the SLFP 12.1%. The still more relevant point is also that the NPP polled 5.75% in the 2018 LG election and is now at 43.76% in 2025, while the SLPP has slid from 40.47% in 2018 to a paltry 9.19% in 2025. The combined SJB (21.69%) and UNP (4.69%) vote total share of 26.38% is also lower than the 29.42% share that the then undivided UNP managed in 2018.

In terms of seats captured, between 2018 and 2025 the NPP ballooned from 434 seats to 3,927 seats while the SLPP has shrunk from 3,436 seats to 742 seats, while the SJB that was unborn in 2018 has managed to win 1,767 seats in 2025. The SLPP won 231 Councils in 2018 and has zero councils now, while the NPP has grown from zero Councils in 2018 to winning 265 Councils now, although it is not having absolute majority of the seats in all the Councils where it has won the largest number of seats. The SJB with 14 Councils is actually placed third after the ITAK with 35 Councils, but only 377 seats and 3% of the total vote. The abnormality is the manifestation of the relative territorial advantage of the ITAK, which is also more illusive than of any practical benefit.

Who Lost in the North & East?

The LG electoral map displayed by Ada Derana (and copied here) is splashed up by just two colours: the ITAK’s purple bordering the northeast coastline and bulging into the Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu districts, while the rest of the island is a mass of NPP red, with sprinklings of SJB yellow here and there including Mannar.

Much has been made of ITAK’s return to electoral supremacy in the north and east, reversing the NPP’s landslide success in the November parliamentary election. It has also been suggested that inasmuch as the NPP government and President AKD personally invested heavily in their campaign in the two provinces, the results are a repudiation of their efforts to woo the Tamils and expand the NPP base in the North and East. I for one see the results quite differently.

Of the five northern districts, the ITAK swept three – Jaffna, Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu, but the NPP came second in all three of them. The NPP also came first in both Mannar, which was actually a three-way split between the NPP, SJB and the ITAK; as well as Vavuniya, where the NPP and the SJB shared the spoils leaving the ITAK to hold on to the Vavuniya Urban Council only. In the Eastern Province, NPP won Trincomalee and Ampara, while the ITAK held on to Batticaloa – the only district that the NPP lost in the parliamentary election. So, it is more even-stevens than repudiation of any kind.

There are two other aspects to the northeast results. The pre-election writeups in the Tamil universe focused more on the challenge to the ITAK from the other Tamil parties than its contest with the NPP. Specifically, parties and alliances involving the ACTC and DTNA were expected to outperform the ITAK and even challenge the latter’s leadership in Tamil politics. Whether he was being set up as a strawman or not, the LG elections were fancied to propel Gajendrakumar Ponnambalam as the next Tamil leader filling the void left by the late R. Sampanthan. Those expectations have been frustrated by the election results. The ITAK is still the ‘accredited’ (AJ Wilson’s term) Tamil political party, and it has put its detractors in their place. As well, the ITAK may find it more congenial to work with the NPP than collaborate with its Tamil competitors.

What is remarkable at the national level is that the NPP is the first political party in Sri Lanka’s history to systematically try to establish itself spatially and socially, in every part of the country and among all sections of its people, and it is now showing some consistent rewards for its efforts. What the Local Government electoral map is showing is that the NPP came first in all the red areas and second in all the purple as well as yellow areas. That is something that should be celebrated and not cavilled at as repudiation in the North and East.

What is also noteworthy at the national level is the disarray of the opposition parties in comparison to the political discipline shown by the NPP. Going forward, the NPP must hasten to add tangible results that are commensurate with the people’s goodwill that it continues to command. In the absence of an effective opposition, the government may want to consider setting up its own sounding boards of independent people to provide criticisms and suggestions on the performance of individual ministers and the government as a whole. Perhaps the current system of parliamentary committees could be used to provide forums for consistent public interventions. Without a mechanism for public feedback and responsive changes the government may lose itself in the intoxication of its own rhetoric. The NPP could and should do better. And the country deserves even better.

by Rajan Philips

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