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Oil, defence and geopolitics: Why Putin is visiting Modi in Delhi

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Modi and Putin share a warm relationship [BBC]

Russian President Vladimir Putin is starting a two-day visit to India, where he will meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi and attend an annual summit held by both countries.

Delhi and Moscow are expected to sign a number of deals during the visit, which comes months after the US increased pressure on India to stop buying Russian oil.

It also comes as US President Donald Trump’s administration holds a series of talks with Russia and Ukraine in an attempt to end the war.

India and Russia have been close allies for decades and Putin and Modi share a warm relationship. Here’s a look at why they both need each other – and what to watch for as they meet.

Why are relations with India key for the Kremlin?

Well, for a start, look at the numbers:

  • a population of nearly a billion and a half.
  • economic growth exceeding 8%. India is the world’s fastest growing major economy.

That makes it a hugely attractive market for Russian goods and resources – especially oil.

India is the world’s third largest consumer of crude oil and has been buying large volumes from Russia. That wasn’t always the case. Before the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, only 2.5% of India’s oil imports were Russian.

That figure jumped to 35% as India took advantage of Russian price discounts prompted by sanctions against Moscow and Russia’s restricted access to the European market.

India was happy. Washington less so.

Earlier this year, the Trump administration slapped an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, arguing that by purchasing oil from Russia, India was helping to fund the Kremlin’s war chest. Orders from India for Russian oil have since dropped. President Putin will be keen for India to keep buying.

For Moscow, weapons sales to India are another priority and have been since Soviet times. Ahead of Putin’s visit, there were reports that India plans to purchase state-of-the-art Russian fighter jets and air defence systems.

Russia, hit by a labour shortage, also sees India as a valuable source of skilled workers.

But there’s geopolitics at play, too.

The Kremlin enjoys demonstrating that Western efforts to isolate it over the war in Ukraine have failed.

Flying to India and meeting Prime Minister Modi is one way of doing that.

So is travelling to China and holding talks with Xi Jinping, as Putin did three months ago. He met Modi on the same trip. The image of the three leaders smiling and chatting together sent a clear message that, despite the war in Ukraine, Moscow has powerful allies who support the concept of a “multi-polar world”.

Russia lauds its “no limits partnership” with China.

It is just as vocal about its “special and privileged strategic partnership” with India.

That is a stark contrast to Moscow’s strained relationship with the European Union.

“I think the Kremlin is sure that the West, including Europe, totally failed,” believes Novaya Gazeta columnist Andrei Kolesnikov.

“We are not isolated, because we have connections to Asia and the Global South. Economically, this is the future. In that sense Russia returned as the main actor in these parts of the globe, like the Soviet Union. But even the Soviet Union had special channels and connections to the US, West Germany and France. It had a multi-vector policy.

“But now we are totally isolated from Europe. This is unprecedented. Our philosophers always said that Russia was a part of Europe. Now we’re not. This is a big failure and a big loss. I’m sure that part of Russia’s political and entrepreneurial class is dreaming of returning to Europe and of doing business not only with China and India.”

This week, though, expect to hear about Russia-India friendship, trade deals and increased economic cooperation between Moscow and Delhi.

Getty Images Russian S400 drives on their way to Red Square during the general rehearsal of Victory Day military parade marking the 80th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War II, at Red Square in Moscow, Russia on 7 May 2025
Weapon sales to India are a priority for Russia [BBC]

Putin’s visit to Delhi is coming at a crucial time for Modi and India’s global ambitions.

India-Russia ties go back to the Soviet era and have endured irrespective of the changing geopolitical landscape.

Putin has arguably put more time and energy into this relationship than other Russian leaders before him.

As for Modi, despite coming under intense pressure from Western governments to criticise Russia over its war in Ukraine, he maintained that dialogue was the only way to resolve the conflict.

This was India’s “strategic autonomy” at play – with Modi occupying a particular place in the geopolitical order where he held close ties with Moscow while maintaining his relationship with the West at the same time.

That worked – until Trump returned to the White House. India-US ties have hit an all time low in recent months as the two countries have failed to resolve the tariff deadlock.

In this context, Putin’s visit assumes more significance for Modi than ever before because it will test India’s geopolitical autonomy. He will be walking the proverbial diplomatic tightrope here.

Modi would want to show Indians at home and in the wider world that he still counts Putin as his ally and hasn’t given into pressure from Trump, whom he has earlier called his “true friend”.

But he has also faced pressure from his allies in Europe – just this week, the German, French and UK ambassadors in India wrote a rare joint article in a major newspaper criticising Russia’s stance on Ukraine.

And so, Modi will have to ensure that the strengthening of India-Russia ties does not overshadow ongoing trade talks with the US and his partnership with Europe.

“For India, the challenge is strategic balance – protecting autonomy while navigating pressure from Washington and dependence on Moscow,” said the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), a Delhi-based think-tank.

Getty Images U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks during a meeting with New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani in the Oval Office of the White House on November 21, 2025 in Washington, DC
President Trump has imposed an additional 25% tariff on India as penalty for buying Russian oil [BBC]

Modi’s other priority will be to unlock the potential of bilateral trade between India and Russia.

Analysts have often said that the economic relationship between the two strong allies has underperformed for decades.

Their bilateral trade rose to $68.72bn at the end of March 2025, up from just $8.1bn in 2020. This was largely due to India sharply increasing discounted Russian oil purchases. This has skewed the balance heavily in favour of Russia and that is something Modi would want to correct.

With Indian firms already reducing oil purchases from Russia to avoid sanctions from Washington, the two countries will look at other areas to boost trade.

Defence is the easiest pick. India’s defence imports from Russia reduced to 36% between 2020 and 2024, from the peaks of 72% in 2010-2015 and 55% between 2015 and 2019, according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

This was largely due to India’s attempt to diversify its defence portfolio and boost domestic manufacturing.

But a closer look at these numbers tells a different story. Several Indian defence platforms still rely heavily on Russia. Many of its 29 air force squadrons use Russian Sukhoi-30 jets.

India’s limited armed conflict with Pakistan in May this year proved the indispensable role of Russian platforms like the S-400 air defence systems in its armed forces but it also showed the vulnerabilities that the country urgently needs to fix.

Reports suggest that India wants to buy the upgraded S-500 systems and the Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jet. Pakistan’s purchase of the China-made J-35 fifth-generation stealth fighter has not gone unnoticed in Delhi, and it would want to secure a comparable jet as soon as possible.

But Russia is already facing a shortage of critical components due to sanctions and the war in Ukraine. The deadline to deliver some units of the S-400 have reportedly been delayed to 2026. Modi will seek some guarantees on timelines with Putin.

Modi would also want Russia’s economy to open space for Indian products to fix the massive trade imbalance.

“Consumer-oriented and high-visibility categories remain marginal: smartphones ($75.9m), shrimp ($75.7m), meat ($63m) and garments at just $20.94m underscore India’s limited penetration in Russia’s retail markets and electronics value chains despite geopolitical churn,” GTRI said.

Modi aims to position Indian goods in Russia’s market, especially once the war ends and Moscow is reintegrated into the global economy.

He would seek to lessen trade dependence on oil and defence, aiming for a deal that strengthens ties with Russia while leaving room to deepen relations with the West.

“Putin’s visit is not a nostalgic return to Cold War diplomacy. It is a negotiation over risk, supply chains and economic insulation. A modest outcome will secure oil and defence; an ambitious one will reshape regional economics,” GTRI said.

[BBC]



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Houthi missile attack on Yemeni presidential palace kills five, minister says

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Verified video footage showed smoke above the presidential palace in Aden (BBC)

Five people have been killed and 16 injured in a Houthi missile attack targeting the presidential palace in the port city of Aden in southern Yemen, which is the seat of the internationally-recognised government, officials say.

Information Minister Moammar al-Eryani told the BBC that the prime minister and other ministers were unhurt when five ballistic missiles hit al-Maashiq Palace.

The Houthis’ military spokesman, Yahya Sarea, said they struck “the Saudi enemy’s military operations headquarters in Aden”.

A coalition led by Saudi Arabia backs the government and is providing air support for an offensive by pro-government forces against the Iran-backed Houthis.

Yemeni health minister Qasim Buhaibeh said the casualties included “those working to guard the site and civilian employees”.

The country’s Prime Minister Shaya Zindani condemned the Houthis’ attack on Aden, calling it “cowardly” and a “continuation of their criminal behaviour”.

He said the government continued to carry out its duties and vowed that it would not weaken the resolve of its forces to continue operations against the Houthis on Yemen’s south-western Red Sea coast and other front lines.

Earlier, the Houthis denied that they had attacked Saudi Arabia on Thursday, after the coalition said its forces had intercepted a cruise missile in the Medina region, home to one of Islam’s holiest shrines.

Maps of Yemen and Saudi Arabia, showing Houthi control of territory and recent advances by pro-government forces (11 October 2026)

The Houthis have been launching missiles and drones at airports, oil and gas facilities, and military bases in Saudi Arabia in retaliation for the strikes on the territory that they control in western Yemen, including the capital Sanaa.

On Saturday, a Houthi missile strike killed 13 people at Riyadh’s international airport, which was the deadliest attack in Saudi Arabia in more than a decade.

Saudi Arabia’s deputy foreign minister accused Iran of encouraging the Houthis to escalate their conflict with the kingdom.

“Iran continues to arm, train and support the Houthi militia in violation of UN Security Council resolutions,” Rayed Krimly told reporters, according to AFP news agency.

“We think that the escalation by the Houthis at this latest stage of the conflict is encouraged by Iran,” he added.

There was no immediate response from Iran’s government. However, it has previously denied supplying weapons to the Houthis and said it only supports them politically.

Iran’s foreign minister has also said it is ready to provide “any assistance necessary to facilitate the start of talks” between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.

Yemen has been devastated by a civil war that began in 2014, when the Houthis ousted the internationally-recognised government from Sanaa. The conflict escalated in 2015, after the Saudi-led coalition of Arab states intervened in an attempt to restore the government’s rule.

A four-year-old informal ceasefire began to unravel in July, when the Houthis announced a “maritime embargo” against Saudi Arabia and began missile and drone attacks on Saudi airports, oil facilities and tankers in the Red Sea.

The Houthis said they were retaliating for what they call a Saudi blockade of their territory, as well as an air strike on Sanaa airport that they blamed on the kingdom.

The conflict escalated in September after the Houthis seized part of Yemen’s south-western Red Sea coast near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a chokepoint for global shipping. Their advance contributed to a rise in oil prices following six months of war between the US, Israel and Iran.

Last week, pro-government forces said they had regained control of territory overlooking Bab al-Mandab after launching a major counter-offensive with the support of Saudi air strikes.

At least 1,282 people have been killed and 5,890 injured in the fighting in Yemen since 6 August, according to the government’s health ministry.

The UN says another 201,000 people have been displaced and that there has been an alarming surge in suspected cholera cases.

(BBC)

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MI5 chief warns of threats to UK from Russia, Iran and AI

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Sir Ken McCallum gave his annual address at MI5's headquarters in central London [BBC]

MI5 is devoting more resource to countering state threats than during the Cold War, the head of the intelligence service has said.

Sir Ken McCallum said threats from foreign adversaries had quadrupled in the last decade, with Russia “aggressor number one” as well as increased Iran-linked aggression against Jewish sites and military bases.

At an annual speech in London, MI5’s chief said Russia was waging hybrid warfare at a time when AI was “supercharging the cyber-security contest between attackers and defenders”.

He also warned of rising threats from “extreme right-wing terrorism” and said MI5 had “caught terrorists seeking to exploit AI,” including by integrating the technology with drones.

He said the biggest threat from the misuse of AI was extremist groups using the technology to harness new and existing bioweapons.

However, he noted that work countering terrorism and state threats was now “pretty much of equal scale” which he described as a “huge shift” in recent years.

Sir Ken said Russia had stopped short of “conventional conflict” against Nato and is instead trying to unsettle European countries while its progress in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine is “minimal and horrifically costly”.

Hybrid warfare or hybrid attacks are loose terms which tend to describe non-military methods, for example cyber-attacks, sabotage or misinformation, designed to exert pressure and destabilise an adversary.

These are quite often employed using proxies, but Russia always denies involvement in such attacks despite growing evidence to the contrary.

Sir Ken said MI5 successes in identifying and expelling Russian spies from the UK had left the Kremlin dependent on paying proxies for attempted attacks.

“With its traditional covert footprint eviscerated by almost 1,000 expulsions since the invasion, the Kremlin’s global toolkit is weak, he said.

“So we see them scrambling to pay criminals to do their bidding.”

He added: “These are not the actions of a great power with the strategic upper hand.”

His comments come as a growing number of leaders across Europe have warned Russia may be preparing attacks to test their commitment to supporting Ukraine.

Asked after the speech about Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s recent comments that Russia interfered with the Brexit referendum, Sir Ken said it was “not new news” that there had been attempts from Moscow but distinguished between “interference attempted” and “outcome achieved”.

He said it was a matter of public record that there were pieces in Russian media and “so-called internet trolls and bot farms” seeking to influence the Brexit debate, but also stressed that the result of the 2016 referendum was “not in dispute”.

He added that he was “worried” about the the ongoing debate on Russian interference.

“I am a little bit anxious that we don’t play into our adversaries’ hands by making these trolls look 10ft tall,” he told reporters.

Meanwhile, Sir Ken warned that Iran is also expanding a hybrid campaign in the UK.

The intelligence chief said there had been 50 arrests in the last year over Iran-linked activities.

Much of this Iranian aggression has been aimed at Jewish communities, Sir Ken added, and also at “harder targets, like military sites”.

Sir Ken did not mention arrests at RAF Fairford directly during his speech, but told reporters afterwards the incident was “not unique”.

He added: “We have seen Iranian interest beyond RAF Fairford in the UK.”

The incident at the airbase in Gloucestershire, where three suspicious vans were seen parked nearby, has seen seven people arrested and bailed by counter-terrorism police.

Burnham has said the incident was “almost certainly directed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard”.

The MI5 head said in his speech: “What I can say is that those who seek to cause mayhem on British streets – whether hired thugs here or their paymasters overseas – will meet an unflinching response.”

Sir Ken added that the National Security Act – a 2023 law designed to target people working against UK interests for foreign powers – is in heavy use, and has been employed to tackle threats from China as well as Iran and Russia.

On the emerging threat posed by AI, Sir Ken said: “It can produce propaganda and radicalising material tailored to the individual.

“We’ve caught terrorists seeking to exploit Al to improve their reconnaissance and attack methodologies, with Al-enabled drones adding a new twist.”

Sir Ken said the bioweapons threat posed by AI was “not yet realised” but warned the technology has the “potential to change the stakes”.

“These risks are real. The UK Intelligence Community – MI5, GCHQ, MI6 – is working closely with the UK’s globally respected AI Security Institute to take them on.”

Sir Ken said AI poses unknown threats, telling Thames House: “Put at its simplest, human history has given us no experience of facing an actor which is smarter than we are”.

He announced MI5 had launched an AI Threat Assessment Centre, which he said would assess sources and “separate the bluster from the realities”.

In April, the UK’s terrorism threat level was raised to severe for the first time in five years, meaning an attack is highly likely.

Sir Ken said Islamist groups like Al Qaeda and so-called Islamic State both continue to direct and inspire attacks, while the increased risk was also driven “in significant part” by extreme right-wing terrorism.

He continued: “Over the last year the most marked trend has been an increase in cases where extremist versions of anti-immigration and anti-Muslim grievance are tipping into terrorist intent.”

Sir Ken said extreme right-wing terrorism tended to “skew young”, driven by the internet – adding that MI5 had in recent months investigated a “radicalised extreme right-wing 13-year-old here in the UK”.

He said: “That investigation generated insight that enabled one of our international partners to prevent a lethal attack on their soil.”

[BBC]

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Pope diagnosed with lung cancer but had successful surgery, Vatican says

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Pope Leo arrived at Rome's Gemelli Hospital ahead of his surgery on Tuesday [BBC]

Pope Leo XIV has been diagnosed with lung cancer but had successful surgery to remove a lower lobe of his right lung, the Vatican has said in a medical bulletin.

The 71-year-old underwent a 90 minute surgery on Tuesday at Rome’s Gemelli Hospital and was subsequently diagnosed with lung adenocarcinoma.

“After the operation, the Pope awoke normally and returned after a brief period of observation to his room on the 10th floor,” the Vatican said in a statement.

The lump was first detected during what the Vatican has described as “routine checks”.

Earlier, large crowds gathered outside the hospital to greet the Pope, with some waiting for several hours.

They cheered greetings and well wishes as he passed, while he waved and smiled back through the lowered back window of his car.

He was then met by staff on the hospital steps. “I’m sorry,” one of them commiserated, to which the Pope gave a smile and a shrug. “We’re here for you,” he was assured.

In its statement, the Vatican said the whole lower lobe of the Pope’s right lung was removed “to ensure the procedure was radical”.

A Vatican source told Agence France-Presse news agency further tests were being carried out to see if there was any sign the cancer had spread.

It was Leo XIV himself who on Sunday announced news of his operation to the world, speaking from the balcony in St Peter’s Square after delivering the traditional Angelus blessing.

He said the nodule, or growth, on his lung was “contained” and had been found “at a very early stage”, but that doctors had advised him to have it removed.

Gemelli’s thoracic surgery team operated on the Pope, whose schedule has already been cleared until 20 October to give him time to recover.

Nodules are quite common and not necessarily cancerous, but after it was examined the medical team confirmed it was pulmonary adenocarcinoma, “as suspected by pre-operative tests”, the Vatican said.

The Vatican has stressed that the pontiff, who is generally thought to be fit, had no symptoms of infection or illness.

Getty Images The Pope delivering a speech from a windowsill on Sunday
Pope Leo XIV announced the news of his operation during his weekly Sunday prayers in Rome [BBC]

Cardinal Kikuchi Tarcisio Isao of Tokyo wrote on social media that he’d had an audience with Pope Leo on Monday, and said the pontiff felt “nothing wrong” physically.

He said the Pope had decided to check in for surgery as soon as possible because he was due to travel to Latin America in early November, and was keen to stick to that plan.

The trip is particularly significant because it includes a visit to Peru, where the pontiff was a missionary and then a Bishop for many years.

Despite all the reassurances, the news has shaken Catholics all over the world.

“Am I worried? Yes, because I certainly wasn’t expecting anything like this,” Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Parolin told journalists on Tuesday.

He agreed that the news was like a “bolt from the blue”, but said the cardinals had been struck by the Pope’s “serenity” and were confident in his recovery.

Outside Gemelli Hospital, which has treated several popes and is home to a large statue of John Paul II, a few Catholics lingered after the pontiff was admitted.

Carla had come specially, wanting to be close.

“He seems calm, so we are calm too – even though illness is always unpleasant,” she told the BBC. “We will wait here and pray.”

[BBC]

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