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Oil, defence and geopolitics: Why Putin is visiting Modi in Delhi

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Modi and Putin share a warm relationship [BBC]

Russian President Vladimir Putin is starting a two-day visit to India, where he will meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi and attend an annual summit held by both countries.

Delhi and Moscow are expected to sign a number of deals during the visit, which comes months after the US increased pressure on India to stop buying Russian oil.

It also comes as US President Donald Trump’s administration holds a series of talks with Russia and Ukraine in an attempt to end the war.

India and Russia have been close allies for decades and Putin and Modi share a warm relationship. Here’s a look at why they both need each other – and what to watch for as they meet.

Why are relations with India key for the Kremlin?

Well, for a start, look at the numbers:

  • a population of nearly a billion and a half.
  • economic growth exceeding 8%. India is the world’s fastest growing major economy.

That makes it a hugely attractive market for Russian goods and resources – especially oil.

India is the world’s third largest consumer of crude oil and has been buying large volumes from Russia. That wasn’t always the case. Before the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, only 2.5% of India’s oil imports were Russian.

That figure jumped to 35% as India took advantage of Russian price discounts prompted by sanctions against Moscow and Russia’s restricted access to the European market.

India was happy. Washington less so.

Earlier this year, the Trump administration slapped an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, arguing that by purchasing oil from Russia, India was helping to fund the Kremlin’s war chest. Orders from India for Russian oil have since dropped. President Putin will be keen for India to keep buying.

For Moscow, weapons sales to India are another priority and have been since Soviet times. Ahead of Putin’s visit, there were reports that India plans to purchase state-of-the-art Russian fighter jets and air defence systems.

Russia, hit by a labour shortage, also sees India as a valuable source of skilled workers.

But there’s geopolitics at play, too.

The Kremlin enjoys demonstrating that Western efforts to isolate it over the war in Ukraine have failed.

Flying to India and meeting Prime Minister Modi is one way of doing that.

So is travelling to China and holding talks with Xi Jinping, as Putin did three months ago. He met Modi on the same trip. The image of the three leaders smiling and chatting together sent a clear message that, despite the war in Ukraine, Moscow has powerful allies who support the concept of a “multi-polar world”.

Russia lauds its “no limits partnership” with China.

It is just as vocal about its “special and privileged strategic partnership” with India.

That is a stark contrast to Moscow’s strained relationship with the European Union.

“I think the Kremlin is sure that the West, including Europe, totally failed,” believes Novaya Gazeta columnist Andrei Kolesnikov.

“We are not isolated, because we have connections to Asia and the Global South. Economically, this is the future. In that sense Russia returned as the main actor in these parts of the globe, like the Soviet Union. But even the Soviet Union had special channels and connections to the US, West Germany and France. It had a multi-vector policy.

“But now we are totally isolated from Europe. This is unprecedented. Our philosophers always said that Russia was a part of Europe. Now we’re not. This is a big failure and a big loss. I’m sure that part of Russia’s political and entrepreneurial class is dreaming of returning to Europe and of doing business not only with China and India.”

This week, though, expect to hear about Russia-India friendship, trade deals and increased economic cooperation between Moscow and Delhi.

Getty Images Russian S400 drives on their way to Red Square during the general rehearsal of Victory Day military parade marking the 80th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War II, at Red Square in Moscow, Russia on 7 May 2025
Weapon sales to India are a priority for Russia [BBC]

Putin’s visit to Delhi is coming at a crucial time for Modi and India’s global ambitions.

India-Russia ties go back to the Soviet era and have endured irrespective of the changing geopolitical landscape.

Putin has arguably put more time and energy into this relationship than other Russian leaders before him.

As for Modi, despite coming under intense pressure from Western governments to criticise Russia over its war in Ukraine, he maintained that dialogue was the only way to resolve the conflict.

This was India’s “strategic autonomy” at play – with Modi occupying a particular place in the geopolitical order where he held close ties with Moscow while maintaining his relationship with the West at the same time.

That worked – until Trump returned to the White House. India-US ties have hit an all time low in recent months as the two countries have failed to resolve the tariff deadlock.

In this context, Putin’s visit assumes more significance for Modi than ever before because it will test India’s geopolitical autonomy. He will be walking the proverbial diplomatic tightrope here.

Modi would want to show Indians at home and in the wider world that he still counts Putin as his ally and hasn’t given into pressure from Trump, whom he has earlier called his “true friend”.

But he has also faced pressure from his allies in Europe – just this week, the German, French and UK ambassadors in India wrote a rare joint article in a major newspaper criticising Russia’s stance on Ukraine.

And so, Modi will have to ensure that the strengthening of India-Russia ties does not overshadow ongoing trade talks with the US and his partnership with Europe.

“For India, the challenge is strategic balance – protecting autonomy while navigating pressure from Washington and dependence on Moscow,” said the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), a Delhi-based think-tank.

Getty Images U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks during a meeting with New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani in the Oval Office of the White House on November 21, 2025 in Washington, DC
President Trump has imposed an additional 25% tariff on India as penalty for buying Russian oil [BBC]

Modi’s other priority will be to unlock the potential of bilateral trade between India and Russia.

Analysts have often said that the economic relationship between the two strong allies has underperformed for decades.

Their bilateral trade rose to $68.72bn at the end of March 2025, up from just $8.1bn in 2020. This was largely due to India sharply increasing discounted Russian oil purchases. This has skewed the balance heavily in favour of Russia and that is something Modi would want to correct.

With Indian firms already reducing oil purchases from Russia to avoid sanctions from Washington, the two countries will look at other areas to boost trade.

Defence is the easiest pick. India’s defence imports from Russia reduced to 36% between 2020 and 2024, from the peaks of 72% in 2010-2015 and 55% between 2015 and 2019, according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

This was largely due to India’s attempt to diversify its defence portfolio and boost domestic manufacturing.

But a closer look at these numbers tells a different story. Several Indian defence platforms still rely heavily on Russia. Many of its 29 air force squadrons use Russian Sukhoi-30 jets.

India’s limited armed conflict with Pakistan in May this year proved the indispensable role of Russian platforms like the S-400 air defence systems in its armed forces but it also showed the vulnerabilities that the country urgently needs to fix.

Reports suggest that India wants to buy the upgraded S-500 systems and the Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jet. Pakistan’s purchase of the China-made J-35 fifth-generation stealth fighter has not gone unnoticed in Delhi, and it would want to secure a comparable jet as soon as possible.

But Russia is already facing a shortage of critical components due to sanctions and the war in Ukraine. The deadline to deliver some units of the S-400 have reportedly been delayed to 2026. Modi will seek some guarantees on timelines with Putin.

Modi would also want Russia’s economy to open space for Indian products to fix the massive trade imbalance.

“Consumer-oriented and high-visibility categories remain marginal: smartphones ($75.9m), shrimp ($75.7m), meat ($63m) and garments at just $20.94m underscore India’s limited penetration in Russia’s retail markets and electronics value chains despite geopolitical churn,” GTRI said.

Modi aims to position Indian goods in Russia’s market, especially once the war ends and Moscow is reintegrated into the global economy.

He would seek to lessen trade dependence on oil and defence, aiming for a deal that strengthens ties with Russia while leaving room to deepen relations with the West.

“Putin’s visit is not a nostalgic return to Cold War diplomacy. It is a negotiation over risk, supply chains and economic insulation. A modest outcome will secure oil and defence; an ambitious one will reshape regional economics,” GTRI said.

[BBC]



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Thailand cracks down on foreign companies using fig leaf of local ownership

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Tourists walk down Bangla Walking Street in Phuket, Thailand, [File: Aljazeera]

On paper, it was registered as a nail salon.

In reality, it was allegedly a front for an adult content business run by an Israeli woman through the subscription-based website OnlyFans.

The woman’s company in the southern province of Krabi was just one of nearly 500 businesses – ranging from beauty salons to cannabis farms – that Thai authorities say were registered by a single accounting firm.

All of the companies were linked to foreigners who had falsely listed a Thai “nominee” as the majority owner to get around the law on foreign ownership, according to authorities.

Under the Foreign Business Act, non-citizens are generally prohibited from holding more than a 49 percent stake in local businesses.

To get around the rule, some foreign entrepreneurs pay locals to fill out paperwork stating that they own at least 51 percent of their company despite having little or no involvement in the business.

After years of turning a blind eye to the dubious use of Thai nominees, authorities are now cracking down and demanding proof that citizens listed as local partners have real holdings in the firms they are registered to.

After launching a wave of inspections across popular tourist areas and cross-checking official databases using artificial intelligence, the government has identified 50,000 foreign-linked companies for greater scrutiny.

Legal firms say they are being inundated with inquiries from foreign businesses and property owners who fear their assets could be frozen or seized if they are found to be part of illicit nominee schemes.

“All of them fear losing their investment and being charged with a criminal case,” Brian Ramsden, general manager of foreign affairs at Lawyers for Expats Thailand, told Al Jazeera.

“It’s always the same excuse: ‘We knew it was illegal, but the lawyers told us it’s OK,’” Ramsden said, explaining that his firm has been getting more than 100 calls a day, “asking us what to do”.

“If the company is not trading, it’s a red flag,” Ramsden added.

Samui
A sign greets tourists at Chawang Beach in Ko Samui, Thailand [File: Aljazeea]

Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has been among those leading the charge against fraudulently registered companies.

On a tour of popular tourist areas in southern Thailand last month, Anutin pledged to throw the book at illegal businesses and take down any criminal organisations using shell companies, a matter of growing concern amid the proliferation of cyber-scam networks in Southeast Asia.

“In cases where … one person holds shares and owns over 200 companies, it is essentially selling companies, selling shells so that foreigners can go and conduct business,” he said.

“This violates the legislative intent of the law, and it is believed that we will be able to prosecute in this regard.”

On resort islands Koh Samui and Koh Phangnan alone, about 70 percent of the 16,800 “registered legal entities” are part-owned by foreigners, the Ministry of Commerce said following an audit last month, though it added that their foreign links did not necessarily mean they were breaking the law.

Last week, authorities said they had referred 28 foreign suspects to prosecutors following an investigation into fraudulently registered firms in the provinces of Phuket and Surat Thani.

The arrests came after authorities in Koh Phangan had earlier announced the confiscation of 30 plots of land worth approximately 150 million baht ($4.5m) and arrested two Thai nationals linked to illegal companies.

The enforcement push comes as some local businesses complain about being undercut by foreigners.

“There are foreigners who invest in villas and convert them into Airbnbs, and once they’ve developed them, Thai people can no longer touch them price-wise,” Thong, a prominent Thai businessman who asked to be identified only by his nickname, told Al Jazeera.

“It is not right for foreigners to own them completely because it means many Thai people get left behind. That’s the real problem.”

The crackdown has also prompted fears that legitimate foreign investors could find themselves on the wrong side of the law unawares, damaging Thailand’s reputation as a place to invest.

While condominium ownership rules mean that 51 percent of any development must be reserved for Thais, it is not unheard of for developers in hot spots such as Bangkok, Phuket and Pattaya to sell entire apartment blocks to foreign clients.

On online forums, foreigners have shared horror stories about buying and leasing property in Thailand, including learning that they did not legally own the condo they bought because it had been reserved for Thai ownership.

Phuket
Tourists relax on Patong Beach, Phuket, Thailand, on July 19, 2021 [Aljazeera]

Across Pattaya, foreign business-people and investors are in a state of “heightened wariness and stress”, said Victor Wong, a foreign investment and tax specialist based in Pattaya.

“The system is tightening without simultaneously expanding lawful entry points,” Wong told Al Jazeera.

“Clients are no longer looking for shortcuts; they are looking for sustainable, lawful structures that will allow them to continue operating in Thailand with confidence,” he said.

While the sudden enforcement of decades-old rules has sent a chill through the expat community, not all foreign residents are sympathetic to concerns about the crackdown.

“This isn’t Thailand’s fault,” said Ramsden of Lawyers for Expats Thailand.

“No one put a gun to the foreigners’ heads. They come to Thailand, and most of their common sense goes out the window,” he said.

“This is about the people not following the rules. This crackdown is going to be better and safer for Thailand.”

[Aljazeera]

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Trump berated Netanyahu? Analysts question US-Israel feud rumours

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US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu clasp hands after meeting at Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida, on December 29 [Aljazeera]

In January 2024, the publication Axios reported that the United States president at the time, Joe Biden, was “running out of patience” with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza had been raging for months by that point, and Biden was facing public backlash over US support for the conflict.

The assault would continue for the rest of Biden’s term and bleed into the first 10 months of Donald Trump’s second presidency.

Since then, media outlets have continued to publish anonymous accounts of rifts and “frustrating” calls between Trump and the Israeli prime minister. But US support for its Middle East ally has never wavered.

Another anonymously sourced report about a furious, expletive-laden call between US and Israeli leaders came out this week, and it spread rapidly across international media.

Axios reported on Monday that Trump called Netanyahu “f***ing crazy” and berated him over Israel’s escalation in Lebanon.

Around the same time, an Israeli attack killed six people, including two children, in the southern Lebanese town of al-Marwaniyah.

Experts say that despite leaks of feuds and harsh words between US leaders and Netanyahu, policies are ultimately what matters, and they have changed very little.

Ryan Costello, the policy director at the National Iranian American Council Action (NIAC), said political observers have grown to “mock” reports of closed-door anger from US presidents against Netanyahu.

“What’s really important is what actually happens in practice,” Costello told Al Jazeera.

Though there are reports of Trump giving Netanyahu a dressing-down, Isabelle Hayslip, an advocacy manager at the US-based rights group DAWN, said that US policy remains aligned with Israeli interests.

“Single-source reporting of Trump as a strongman who picks up the phone and yells at Netanyahu for undermining US policy is contradicted by the actual policy outcomes where Netanyahu gets exactly what he wants,” Hayslip told Al Jazeera.

“Trump has no final say over Israeli actions. Like his predecessors, the president has proved completely unable to prioritise American interests, instead catering to Israel’s expansionist whims.”

The latest report comes as Trump faces increasing pressure from his Democratic rivals and segments of his base over his handling of the war on Iran, which he launched jointly with Netanyahu on February 28.

The conflict, which saw Iran close the Strait of Hormuz, has sent gasoline prices soaring in the US and fuelled inflation.

Critics have accused Trump of allowing Israel to drag the US into a war that does not advance Washington’s priorities.

With negotiations to end the war stagnating, Israel’s escalation in Lebanon and its threat to bomb Beirut risks derailing the fragile truce that came into effect in April.

Iranian officials have suggested that they cut off contact with the US over the Israeli attacks in Lebanon.

Before the Axios report, Trump announced he had spoken to Netanyahu and an unidentified Hezbollah representative, and both sides agreed that “all shooting will stop”.

But Netanyahu was quick to assert that the Israeli military “will continue to operate as planned in southern Lebanon”, where it is deepening its invasion and turning entire towns into rubble.

Advocates say Israeli atrocities in Lebanon and across the region could not have happened without US backing.

Since the start of Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza in October 2023, the US has provided Israel with nearly $25bn in military aid, helped fend off retaliatory Iranian attacks against the country and vetoed several ceasefire resolutions at the United Nations Security Council.

Nonetheless, anonymous accounts that the US president is angry at Netanyahu have become a regular feature in the media.

Such reports are attributed to US officials, but it is unclear how leaks with a similar message on the same topic have continued across two administrations from different political parties.

Publicly, aides of both Biden and Trump have largely refrained from criticising Israel.

Trump has regularly praised the Israeli prime minister, arguing on more than one occasion that Israel would have ceased to exist without Netanyahu’s leadership.

In December, the US president also called the Israeli prime minister a “hero” during a meeting in Florida.

“We’re with you, and we’ll continue to be with you,” Trump told Netanyahu.

Two weeks earlier, Axios reported that the White House had “scolded” Netanyahu over Israel’s ceasefire violations in Gaza.

“The White House message to Netanyahu was: ‘If you want to ruin your reputation and show that you don’t abide by agreements, be our guest, but we won’t allow you to ruin President Trump’s reputation after he brokered the deal in Gaza,” the publication quoted a US official as saying.

Few people know the exact content of high-level calls at the White House. Sometimes, top officials, including members of the National Security Council, sit in on conversations between the president and world leaders after briefings.

Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, a research nonprofit, said the leak about the tense call between Trump and Netanyahu may be aimed at making Trump look tough on Israel to quell outrage over the war.

“It could be sort of a way of moderating the anger or the blame at the US for continuing this unpopular, illegal, unnecessary war,” Mortazavi told Al Jazeera.

She added that the message it sends is, “Look, we’re very angry at Israel. We yell at them. We call them names.”

But Mortazavi stressed that policy is more important than rhetoric: “Does that change the facts on the ground?”

For his part, Costello argued that the leak was likely directed at Iran.

“I see this one primarily as a signal to the Iranians that Trump is serious, and he wants to insulate what’s happening in Lebanon and Israel’s attacks from the Iran negotiations,” Costello said.

“It remains to be seen the extent to which that excoriation has actually led to a change in Israel’s policies, and I think there is a strong incentive for continued defiance from Netanyahu.”

Axios, meanwhile, has defended its coverage.

“We stand by our reporting, which by the way noted ‘Trump and Netanyahu have had several tense calls in the past but have still coordinated closely on Iran and other issues,’” Jake Wilkins, a spokesperson for the publication, told Al Jazeera in an email.

Mortazavi warned that all sides of the war on Iran are trying to influence public perceptions of the conflict.

She pointed to recent reports that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian had resigned, a rumour that was promptly denied by his office.

“This is a very hybrid war. It’s a war on the battlefield. It’s an intelligence war. It’s a war of narratives,” Mortazavi told Al Jazeera. “And then there’s also an information war,  which includes disinformation, half-truths and strategic leaks.”

[Aljazeera]

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White House Correspondents’ Dinner rescheduled after shooting incident

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A shooting interrupted the White House Correspondents' Dinner in April, prompting its postponement [BBC]

The annual White House Correspondents’ Dinner has been rescheduled after the original event on April 25 was suspended after a gunman attempted to access the venue, resulting in an exchange of fire with Secret Service agents.

The new event will be held on July 24 with “significantly enhanced safety measures and new access procedures”, Weijia Jiang, president of the White House Correspondents’ Association (WHCA), wrote in a letter to members.

US President Donald Trump said he would attend the rescheduled dinner, which will be held at the Waldorf Astoria in Washington DC.

The April shooting saw Trump and Vice-President JD Vance, among others, rushed off stage by Secret Service agents.

The suspect was subdued by agents on the scene, and one Secret Service agent was injured by shotgun fire, according to the Department of Justice.

Trump said the rescheduling of the event, which is meant to honour journalists and the freedom of the press, is a “sign of Strength and Fortitude”.

“This announcement is a very good thing in that we cannot allow Lunatics to change our way of life, or even its scheduling,” the president wrote on social media.

The WHCA spent the last several weeks raising funds to make sure that its members who purchased tickets to the April event do not have to pay again for the July event, which will be a “more intimate gathering”, Jiang said.

The association is also offering financial support to scholarship winners who wish to travel back to Washington DC for the dinner, Jiang said.

Trump said he has accepted an invitation to speak at the rescheduled event, adding that he’s not sure if he will “give the same rather nasty statements” that he had planned to in April.

“But we will soon find out,” the president said.

The April event – attended by the president, vice-president, members of Congress and Trump’s cabinet, and hundreds of journalists – was already underway when a gunman stormed through a security checkpoint.

The suspect was later identified as 31-year-old Cole Tomas Allen, who police said was armed with the shotgun, a handgun and knives.

At a press conference immediately after the shooting, Trump said he would work to get the event rescheduled in the following 30 days.

The Waldorf Astoria, where Trump says the July event will take place, was first converted from an old post office into a luxury hotel by the Trump Organization more than a decade ago. The Trump family leased the building in 2012 and opened the Trump International Hotel there in 2016, before selling the lease in 2022.

[BBC]

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