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Is trump likely to be the next American president?

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Even republicans agree that trump is obnoxious

by Kumar David

Trump is not liked by most Americans, including most Republicans who support him because, though they agree that his behaviour is grotesque, he seems to be an election winner. Depending on the outcome of legal wrangles before the courts it is even conceivable that he may be the first person to contest the presidency from behind bars! (Who knows; it may increase his sympathy vote!). On Tuesday March 5 (Super Tuesday) when 15 to 16 states chose their party delegates to back a candidate for nomination both Trump and Biden scored resounding victories as Republican and Democratic nominees, respectively. Trump’s case is more important than Biden’s for reasons I will explain anon.

Trump can be notoriously and dangerously inconsistent. (Someone quipped that the apps for the “Make America Great Again” logo are made in China!). Russia is pulling all stops in supporting him as evident from RT (Russian TV), Kremlin spokesmen and Putin himself. They are going to burn their fingers.

I have written recently about a global swing to the right. The conservative centre-right narrowly won Portugal’s March 10 election but it was the far-right Chega Party that surged from zero to 48 seats in the 230 seat Assembly and took 18% of the poll; Sweden joined NATO; Haiti descended into anarchy and the Prime Minister was chased out; Pakistan’s army installed a right-wing cabinet ignoring Imran Khan’s populist Tehreek-e-Insaf (Movement for Justice) and so on. Nearer home, in Taiwan the pro-independence Democratic People’s Party (DPP) won a plurality 40% while the KMT which favours closer relations with China took a lesser 33.5%.

And worst of all and nearer home, Muslim-loathing Modi decided to confer Indian citizenship on non-Muslims ONLY – Hindus, Sikhs, Jains, Buddhists, Parsis, and Christians – who migrated from Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Afghanistan and arrived in India before December 31, 2014. A repugnant move that will improve Modi’s electoral prospects just as Sinhala-Buddhist rhetoric is useful in Sri Lankan politics.

A Washington Post (WP) article of March 11, 2024 by Ashley Parker, Marianne LeVine and Ross Godwin says of Trump: “One constant is the slew of falsehoods from hyperbole to outright lies. (Our WP’s) Fact Checker found that in the four years of his presidency, Trump offered a total of 30,573 untruths — an average of roughly 21 erroneous claims a day”. Trump’s stump speeches provide a road map of what a second term will look like — he promises to root out the so-called deep state of civil servants (sic!), crack down on illegal immigration and pull back from the world stage (Good!). It also reveals physical feebleness, slurring of words, confusing names of world leaders and attacks on minorities in offensive ways. It is spine chilling that whichever way America turns (Obnoxious Donald or Sleepy Joe) it’s in for a terrible future.

There is a difference between Party Conventions & Caucuses and mass election polling of the public by polling agencies and mass-media outfits seeking to assess how people may vote for this candidate or that. Recent (February and March) polls show Trump ahead by a small lead in most states except obvious Democratic ones like California, New York and the small New England states. It seems Trump may win the presidency unless things reverse in the next six months. An ABC News/Ipsos survey of 536 U.S. adults, conducted between March 8-9, found that only 29 percent have a favourable view of the former president compared to 59 percent who view him unfavourably. There may well be more swings of mood this way and that as domestic and international (Middle East, Ukraine and Russia) factors evolve.

Biden (“Genocide Joe” protesters call him) lags Trump in public polls for three reasons. He is a bumbling, stumbling 81-year-old (born November 20, 1942) fogey who may not live out the next presidential term 2025 – 2029. This makes the choice of running-mate, Vice-Presidential candidate, crucial. He/she will have to assume the reigns if sleepy Joe’s hardening arteries induce a medical declaration of incompetence to continue in office. Kamala Harris, the current VP, is frontrunner for nomination but she has nil mass appeal. There are others waiting in the wings such as Pete Buttigieg (Transport Secretary) and Gavin Newsome (California Governor). Michele Obama is a winning candidate to defeat Trump, but her office has shut down stories that she may challenge sleepy Joe for the nomination. This may change if Joe himself invites her to replace him.

The second reason weighing against Biden is the economy. Inflation is now 3.7% year-on-year. Though less than feared it is still above the Fed’s 2% target. Unemployment at between and 3.4%% and 3.9% has remained fairly stable over recent years; however, the structure of employment is changing with many workers quitting the leisure industry, trade and services. The employment and inflation scenarios have been topsy-turvy since Covid-19. I have seen no convincing analysis of exactly what is going on. Changes in employment patterns since 2003 published by the US Chamber of Commerce show 20-year trends. On-line purchasing of merchandises, air-ticket reservations and a breakdown of the work ethic, is playing havoc with long established employment patterns. It seems that employment in hotels and leisure facilities is very volatile and retail trade is unstable. Financial activity (capitalist sector) is stable.

Source: US Chamber of Commerce: Vertical black bands indicate economic recessions

America’s Christian Fundamentalism

Trump will be the Republican presidential nominee so it is fitting to address the perplexity of fundamentalist Christian enthusiasm for so ungodly, un-Christian a soul?

But first an anecdote that my informant swears is Gospel true!

Heard in a bar adjacent to the Trump Tower in New York.

Man: “I have been a politician for decades, but I am completely honest”

Lady: “Oh yeah! Wow! And I have been a call-girl for decades but am still a virgin”

For American Christian-fundamentalists what matters is not the factuality of Trump’s sinful, un-Christian soul, but rather a belief that divine forces are acting through him. Republicans are no longer committed to democracy because they are concerned with something bigger. Yes, Trump is indeed a crook intent on maximizing wealth, and carnal pleasure, but spiritual blindness prevents bookish Christians from seeing how the Holy Spirit is using him. Smokey is channelling the “secret power of lawlessness,” to defeat the ultimate evil, anti-Americanism. What matters is not the factual truth of Trump’s sinful character, but rather the higher truth that spiritual forces are sending him as a divine instrument to stave off the real anti-Christ, anti-Americanism.

Note on Historical Materialism (HM)

Of course, if the economic policy of a government fails it is liable to be driven out at the next election; that’s simplicity itself. However, the materialist conception of history refers to events on a giant scale; changes in the mode of production, division of society into classes and the emergence of different forms of state. The great peasant revolts that overthrew dynasties in China, the agricultural disaster in Continental Italy after the Eastern Roman Empire was founded in Constantinople in 330AD, the ravaging of Peru-Boliva by the Spanish Conquistadors and the Heart of Darkness (the genocide of European slave-traders who transported millions from the West Coast of Africa to the Americas) are examples.

Sometimes I worry that the Sri Lankan left (JVP and NPP) may jumble the scale of things and fail to appreciate the importance of side-stepping conflict with India, and the need to defuse ethnic conflict within the Island, which belongs, albeit on a smaller scale, to a historical materialist agenda. I have been informed that a high-level business association interviewed Anura Kumara and found him wanting. Apparently, the outfit thought that his understanding of economics was weak and that the intellectual support provided to him by his top lieutenants was inadequate. I will return to these themes in my next column.



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The hard challenge of clinching a political settlement in the Middle East

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Bruised hearts: Displaced Palestinian civilians in the Gaza.(Photo by Mustafa Hassona/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Despite some sections of the Trump administration persisting with the view that the possibility could not be entirely ruled out of there being a diplomatic solution to the current US-Iran hostilities in West Asia, the skeptic could not be blamed for thinking otherwise. The intensity, scale and frequency of the tit-for-tat strikes by the antagonists over the past few days against selected military targets and civilian infrastructure in particular in West Asia make the adoption of this stance excusable.

The continuing hostilities render the mentioning of the MOU signed between the warring parties in mid-June a laughable matter. While it could very well be that the foes are wishing privately for a cessation of hostilities before long, what seems to be uppermost on their minds right now is to negotiate with each other from a position of strength. This strategy compels them to incapacitate each other militarily to the extent possible, lest they have to concede too much to each other during negotiations. Hence the stepped-up hostilities.

However, even on the question of there being a negotiated political settlement in the West Asian theatre in the longer term, the skeptic could come to be seen as scoring over the optimist. Developments on the ground account for this.

At the time of writing Israel’s Netanyahu government is going ahead in fairly care-free fashion with the establishment of more Jewish settlements in the Gaza and the West Bank, and it’s all happening under the apparently complacent gaze of the US. In fact, some quarters estimate that Israel is in control of some 65% of the Gaza Strip. Ethnic cleansing, that is, is being drastically stepped-up.

Accordingly, in terms of the power relations of West Asia, the world is almost back to the status quo of the late forties of the last century when the state of Israel was established and the Palestinians were reduced to a microscopic minority in the land they came to inhabit. Therefore, even the impartial observer would be compelled to ask: ‘Will a negotiated peace be ever possible in the Middle East?’

The humanist in the observer would prefer to answer this question in the affirmative and it is indeed the ideal stance to adopt considering the staggering human and material costs of the conflict. But the way ahead to peace could be expected to be highly hazardous and arduous. Among other odds, it would also prove an uphill endeavour to win minds and hearts.

The US’ Trump administration would need to be counted out in this pursuit. This is on account of the fact that it has been far too wayward in its management of West Asian affairs in particular over the past couple of years. Given its unpredictable character it is a matter for conjecture whether it could be counted on to live up to its commitments.

Moreover, Israel could be expected to ‘go it alone’ in the Middle East regardless of whether US help is coming or otherwise. It has indicated as much in recent times and Israel could be doubted on this score only at the doubter’s peril. Because time and again Israel has demonstrated that it could steadfastly defend its interests even single-handedly in the Middle East. History bears this out.

However, a durable alliance with the US would stand Israel in good stead. On the matter of military and intelligence assistance, for example, the US’s help proved invaluable for Israel in the past and going forward this is bound to be so as well. Moreover, it is unlikely that the Trump administration would give up on Israel, considering that a strong Israel is crucial for the furtherance of the US’ strategic and economic interests in West Asia.

But whether the above factors would have a considerable bearing on the question of working out a durable solution to the West Asian tangle is an entirely different matter. Israel, as in the case of the Palestinian enclaves, is acutely security conscious and would need to satisfy itself fully that it could live in a security environment that would guarantee its complete safety, going forward.

The Middle East is badly in need of another peace effort on the lines of the Oslo Accords of the mid-nineties that brought the key actors together and helped hammer out a solution that addressed some of their notable concerns. To be sure, that process did not prove to be the ideal answer to the tangle, but it yielded some respite to the region and drove home that one-time sworn foes could indeed negotiate with a degree of success. The West Bank authority, although falling short of fulfilling some key Palestinian aspirations, is testimony that a degree of success is possible if the intent is right.

Given the current realities of West Asia, peace-making is bound to be an uphill challenge. The violence faced in recent times by the Palestinian community, in particular, has been nothing less than mind-numbing. Merciless has been the violence visited on them by the Israeli side. In such circumstances, durable peace in the region could smack of an idealist’s dream.

Nevertheless, there needs to be urgently, a meeting of minds over the divides. The US would need to be counted out as an honest broker in bringing the sides together but the rest of the West would do well to step up to the challenge.

In this exercise the onus would be on the world’s democracies to take the initiative and doggedly stay the course. An acceptable combination would be the EU and the UN. Given their credentials, the main sides in West Asia ought to find them the least controversial.

Even if the relevant institutional and political arrangements could be shored up to take a reconciliation process forward, winning hearts and minds for the peace drive would prove a grueling challenge. Over the past few years in particular tens of thousands of hearts and minds on both sides of the divide have been bruised badly in the runaway murderous violence that has come to define the Middle East.

These badly scarred personalities would need to experience healing without much delay. It is therefore a multi-faceted challenge that is at hand. Since wide-ranging expertise would be needed in the healing process, people’s participation in peace-making, ranging over the divides, would need to be made a durable reality. It will be a time for enthroning humanity and ensuring the rejection of all forms of violence and coercion.

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Amazing Thailand …right here in Colombo

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For many Sri Lankans, Thailand is the go-to holiday — beaches, temples, food, and that famous warm hospitality.

In fact, I’ve been to Amazing Thailand 24 times myself, and was honoured with the Friends of Thailand International Media Award by the Tourism Authority of Thailand for promoting Thai tourism.

The good news I have for you today is that you don’t even need a passport to get a taste of Amazing Thailand.

The Royal Thai Embassy, in Colombo, is bringing a vibrant slice of Thailand, to the city of Colombo, with Thai Festival 2026 — a cultural experience like never before.

Whether you are an avid enthusiast of Thai culture, a total novice, or simply just interested in exploring foreign cultures, Thai Festival 2026 is going to be the perfect opportunity for you to get more than just a glimpse into one of the most celebrated cultural heritages in South East Asia. And ENTRANCE IS FREE.

The festival will be held on the 1st and 2nd of August, 2026, at Siam Nivasa, 43, C.W.W. Kannangara Mawatha, Colombo 7, and the East Parking Area, of the Colombo Municipal Council, from 11:00am to 5:00pm.

Both days will be full of live entertainment, and dispersed throughout with Thai cultural displays, including exhilarating traditional dance performances and breathtaking Muay Thai demonstrations.

Exploring art and craft specific to Thailand, tasting irresistible authentic Thai cuisine, and playing arcade games, are just a few more fun-filled events available for visitors at the festival premises.

An array of Thai products will also be available for purchase.

While at the festival, you will find Sri Lankan Alumni from Thai universities sharing their experiences with you and willing to answer any questions you might have, related to studying abroad in Thailand.

You can also register for the Muay Thai workshop that will be happening on the 7th and 8th of August, 2026, in Colombo.

Irresistible authentic Thai cuisine

Visitors can also stand a chance to win traditional Thai souvenirs, get exclusive photo opportunities, and, the big one — to enter the raffle draw, at the end of each day, for the grand prize of an all-inclusive round trip to Thailand.

Be sure to avail yourself of this exceptional opportunity and add a cultural spin to your weekend.

To keep up with the latest updates on Thai Festival 2026, head over to the Thai Festival official social media pages.

The Royal Thai Embassy in Colombo official webpage:

https://colombo.thaiembassy.org

Official social media:

Facebook: @RTEColombo

Instagram: @thaiembassysrilanka

Thai Festival official social media:

Facebook: Thai Festival in Colombo

Instagram: @thaifestival_colombo

TikTok: @thaifestival.incolombo

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Thicker, stronger hair …

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Hair fall, in this heat, can be so frustrating, and noticing a thin patch is even more worrying. The good news is … yes, with a little care and kitchen ingredients, you can nourish your scalp and support healthy regrowth.

Try these four easy home remedies … even our grandmothers trusted:

*  Coconut Oil and Curry Leaves Tonic:

Warm 04 tablespoons of coconut oil, with a handful of curry leaves, till the leaves turn black. Cool, strain, and massage into scalp 02-03 times a week. Leave for 01 hour, or overnight.

Why:

Coconut oil deeply nourishes, while curry leaves help strengthen roots and add shine.

Onion Juice for Spot Treatment:

With cotton, dab the juice of 01 small onion, directly on the thin/bald patches. Leave for 20-30 minutes, and then wash with a mild shampoo. Use twice a week.

Why:

Rich in sulfur, onion juice helps boost blood circulation to the scalp.

Aloe Vera and Castor Oil Mask:

Mix 02 tablespoons of fresh aloe vera gel and 01 tablespoon castor oil and apply to the scalp, focusing on thinning areas. Leave for 45 minutes, and then rinse with cool water.

Why:

Aloe vera soothes the scalp, while castor oil coats hair to make it look thicker.

* Fenugreek and Curd Strengthening Pack:

You will need 02 tablespoons fenugreek seeds, soaked overnight, and 02 tablespoons plain curd.

Grind to a paste, apply to scalp for 30 minutes, and then wash.

Why:

Fenugreek strengthens strands and reduces breakage.

Extra Tips for Healthy Hair:

Avoid tight hairstyles that pull on the scalp.

Eat iron and protein rich foods: greens, dhal, eggs, fish.

Use lukewarm water, not hot.

Be gentle when brushing and drying.

Manage stress — it plays a big role in hair fall.

Important: If bald patches are growing, or there is itching/redness, please consult a dermatologist.

Home remedies support hair health, but a doctor can find the exact cause.

Remember, healthy hair starts with a healthy, happy you.

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