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Instead of recreating conditions for protest …

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Last year’s protests near the Prime Minister’s Office, Colombo

By Jehan Perera

The stock market boomed after the much-awaited domestic debt restructuring programme (DDR), but the national economy continues to be in deep trouble. It does not seem to have the productive capacity and the general population does not have the purchasing power to lift itself out of the doldrums. Even those at the top end of the production chain, the owners of factories, are lamenting the lack of consumer demand for their goods and services. People do not have the money to purchase their output. Examples are given of three lorries per day leaving the factory whereas 60 went out prior to the economic collapse. Or of factories that have laid off 50 of their 200 employees. The newspaper delivery man said that the sale of the state-owned newspapers by him has slumped. He explained that offices used to buy them and said 15 of the 18 offices he distributed them to, in the neigbourhood, had closed.

The government is doing its best to meet international requirements for economic revival. The international community can make the difference in terms of a major inflow of resources that can kick-start the economy. The IMF’s approval is the international standard from which other possible international economic partners get their assurance. By engaging in the DDR process, Sri Lanka has begun the arduous journey of meeting the IMF-set economic targets. The IMF sets the targets for economic sustainability, be it by increasing tax revenue or decreasing the budget deficit by a recommended percentage. It is the Sri Lankan government that is expected to decide how it will meet those targets. The government has chosen a path that attempts to deflect the costs away from the corporate sector and its supporters without an attempt being made to recover stolen assets.

One of the main casualties of the restructuring process is the social welfare programme that successive governments sustained over the previous decades. Aswesuma seeks to provide benefits to two million poor and vulnerable families. LIRNEasia’s national survey has shown that four million individuals have fallen into poverty since 2019, and that seven million people are living in poverty at present. It can be anticipated, therefore, that the selection process will and has caused enormous strife, as there is dispute at the local level about who should be a beneficiary and who should not. Another major casualty has been the EPF/ETF pensions. The taxing of the pension funds and the reduction in the interest they will receive is causing less pain at the present time, but it will surely cause pain later on when those who retire find that the money they receive does not go very far.

VOLATILE SITUATION

President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s achievement is that he has been able to lead a government that is composed of ruling party members who were and possibly remain his political opponents. He is getting them to pass laws that will lead to economic restructuring that is causing pain to the majority of people. Opposition and SJB leader Sajith Premadasa has pointed out that the EPF pension fund would lose as much as 12 trillion rupees (USD39 billion) by 2038. Citing a report by economic think tank Verite Research, he said “When the heads of the EPF and the ETF were questioned by the Public Finance Committee it was found that this government had not consulted them before introducing the DDO plan. No government body has assessed the losses to be borne by the workers. The Verite Research in its assessment says that the amount would be more than 12 trillion rupees.”

The ruling party members would be aware of the economic discontent among the masses of people who cannot make ends meet. Public opinion polls show that the government, and the President in particular, are gaining in popularity, but it also shows that the overall popularity level continues to be low. The approval rating of the government doubled to 21 percent in June 2023 from the 10 percent that was recorded in both February 2023 and October 2022, according to the latest round of the Gallup style ‘Mood of the Nation’ poll of Verité Research. This may explain the government’s determination not to conduct the local government elections that are now four months overdue and to postpone elections infefintely. These are disturbing signs of a movement towards unsustainable autocracy if the provincial elections are not held any longer and if the local polls are also postponed indefinitely.

In these circumstances, the polarization between the government and Opposition is likely to grow. The government is passing new laws and seeking to pass controversial ones, such as resurrecting the local government authorities in lieu of holding fresh elections, restricting media freedom and expanding the scope of anti-terrorist laws, using its majority in Parliament. However, this majority was elected in a different time before the collapse of the economy. Now that the government’s popularity is only at the 20 percent level it can be seen that the masses of people will not be supportive of what the government is doing. This creates a potentially volatile situation in a country that has been long accustomed to changing unpopular governments at elections. It is not reasonable to expect the people to remain patient forever, it could well lead to another Aragalaya.

REQUIRED COOPERATION

The prevailing situation in France is a warning of what can happen in Sri Lanka unless economic hardships facing the people are speedily mitigated. France has been experiencing a wave of riots and looting since a police officer shot and killed a 17-year-old boy, of Algerian origin, during a traffic stop. The incident sparked outrage and protests among people who accused the police of racism and brutality. The unrest soon spread to other cities across the country, including Paris, where rioters clashed with the police, set fire to cars and buildings, and ransacked shops and businesses. More than 3,000 people have been arrested so far, and the damage is estimated at over USD 1 billion. Many of the rioters are young people who feel marginalized and hopeless in a country where the police are accused of using excessive force and targeting minorities.

The problem in Sri Lanka at the present time is that the government does not have the economic resources to distribute as social welfare to mitigate the economic dislocations caused by job losses and the fallen value of the rupee. The World Bank estimates are that the national economy, which shrank by more than seven percent last year, will continue its downward spiral by a further fall of three percent this year. The resurrection of more than 8000 local government councillors from dissolved local authorities in lieu of elections, as proposed by the government, will be outrageous to people who have lost their jobs and are teetering on the brink of economic survival. It will be a reminder of the Aragalaya’s uncompleted mission of sending the rogues home and effecting a system change.

At a recent public event, President Ranil Wickremesinghe emphasized the importance of avoiding misleading arguments and instead urged the entire opposition, led by the Opposition leader, to join the government in addressing the country’s challenges. There is one area in which the Opposition can and must support the President and that is in resolving the ethnic conflict and reaching the goal of national reconciliation. Such a success will have the potential to mobilise international support on a large scale. The President has demonstrated commendable courage and vision in this area. Resolving this problem will unify the country and translate into renewed international confidence in Sri Lanka’s future and the economic investments that can flow in as a result. Victory will surely come when we say we did it together.



Opinion

Assisting solar power debate in Cabinet

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Authors: Directors of Solar Village SDG CIC
www.solarvilllagesdg.org
I.M. Dharmadasa (Emeritus Professor), Nilmini Roelens (Solicitor) and Saroj Pathirana (Journalist)

The purpose of this article is to inform the Cabinet discussion on Solar Power proposed by the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB)

Net metering and the Prosumer

The CEB has put forward a motion to the Sri Lankan Cabinet which proposes to reduce the unit price payable under the various net metering schemes to the “prosumer” (the owner of a solar panel system).

A prosumer is a blend of producer and consumer, referring to individuals who both create and consume. This is based on the notion that most producers of electricity through self-owned solar panels generate more than double their own needs as consumers. It thus enables the prosumer to connect to the national grid and receive money on a pay back scheme from the CEB for the excess electricity they produce.

What is this debate about?

Currently there are four schemes.

The Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka explains the various schemes involving roof -top solar solutions thus under a heading published in October 2023 – Rooftop Solar PV Connection Schemes. The two most noteworthy schemes are the Net plus and the Net plus plus schemes.

https://www.pucsl.gov.lk/rooftop-solar-pv-connection-schemes/

Through the NET Plus Plus Scheme CEB regards the prosumer as a mini power plant holder which maximises roof top generation well beyond the prosumer’s own needs making maximum use of extra roof space. This would work well for schools and companies with large buildings. CEB used to pay Rs. 37 per unit to the prosumer for up to 500kW. This unit price was available between 26 October 2022 to 1 July 2024. However, as of 1 July 2024 the unit price was reduced to Rs. 27.

We understand the new CEB proposal to the cabinet is to scrap this scheme altogether.

In relation to the Net Plus scheme which is the more accessible and popular scheme for ordinary householders the current CEB proposal is to reduce the unit price even further to Rs. 19 for solar power systems generating less than 20 kW, whilst for those generating between 20 – 100 kW the unit pay back will be Rs.17 and those generating between 100 – 500 kW will receive Rs.15 per unit.

The installation costs of a 5-kW solar panel is now around Rs 1.0 million. The cost of solar panels has in fact come down over the years and the units are recyclable. The lifespan of a solar unit is expected to be in the region of 22 to 25 years. There are now over 300 active solar companies in Sri Lanka. This is a rapidly growing sector with the prospect of generating employment for tens of thousands of young Sri Lankans for many years to come as technicians, administrators and entrepreneurs. The potential advantages for the economy are extensive Sri Lanka’s growth of the renewable energy sector using freely available sunshine available virtually all year-round given the geographical proximity to the equator

It is not just about reducing the electricity bills of the prosumer. This green energy solution would also mean we avoid the heavy annual cost of the import of fossil fuels into Sri Lanka which very seriously affects its balance of payments each year. The unwarranted need for environmentally damaging energy sources like coal, diesel and nuclear (with its inherent dangers and enormous costs), etc., will lead to a meaningless downward spiral of more debt, enhanced climate risk and pollution.

The intermittency argument

The argument of intermittency of renewables is a misguided premise. Some may argue that seasonal variations of renewables such as solar or hydro power may make them unreliable. This can very easily be remedied by investment in a smart grid. This can be done by upgrading the existing transformers and grid lines. A policy decision would be required at cabinet level to advise the CEB to reinvest any profits for this purpose.

Green Hydrogen is the future

Solar generated power can be harnessed to invest in Green Hydrogen solutions which could mean that rather being an importer of fossil fuels, that the rest of the world is turning away from, Sri Lanka becomes an exporter of green hydrogen to countries in the northern hemisphere where sunshine is scarcer.

Picture what it could do to the Sri Lankan economy if, rather than being dependent on imports of polluting and expensive fuel which can exacerbate the climate crisis, we transform our island into an eco-tourist paradise and become an exporter of clean green hydrogen.

Green hydrogen is created by splitting water molecules into its components of Hydrogen and Oxygen. The hydrogen gas can be compressed and stored for export. The minimum voltage required for splitting the water molecule is about 1.50 Volts DC and scaling up and commercialisation is happening throughout the world currently.

Rebranding Sri Lanka as a renewable energy island

To limit imports of fossil fuels for automobiles, a policy decision at governmental level could provide concessions for electric cars for solar roof owners and encourage the use of solar powered charging stations. The annual cost of imports of petrol and diesel would reduce overtime as Sri Lanka encourages clean and green electric cars.

Whilst the rest of the world is turning to renewable energy with alacrity, Sri Lanka ought not turn to fossil fuel imports in breach of its commitments to the international community.

In 2015 Sri Lanka signed up to the United Nations 2030 Agenda. Ahead of the Paris Summit Sri Lanka set out its climate action plan which the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) stated “Countries have agreed that there will be no back-tracking in these national climate plans, meaning that the level of ambition to reduce emissions will increase over time.”

(https://unfccc.int/news/sri-lanka-submits-its-climate-action-plan-ahead-of-2015-paris-agreement)

Sri Lanka has a real opportunity to rebrand itself as a renewable energy island. This means moving towards the commitments made at UNFCC – COP25, Sri Lanka Country Statement in Madrid in December 2019:

“Sri Lanka recognises the importance of the role of COP and highlights the need to take effective and definitive steps for finalising the follow up actions of the Paris Agreement.

The rise of the global mean temperature and the resulting changes have created adverse impacts on key sectors of Sri Lanka, such as agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, marine and fisheries, tourism and energy (hydro power) sectors, leading to disastrous effects on its people, ecosystems and economy. According to official statistics from 2008 to 2018, droughts, floods and landslides have affected over 15 million people, and losses and damages resulting from these calamities have been borne by Sri Lanka’s national budget… Sri Lanka is committed to inclusive and participatory climate actions to ensure that affirmative actions are taken to address the vulnerabilities of climate change.“https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/SRILANKA_cop25cmp15cma2_HLS_EN.pdf

Why is reduction of the unit price a very regressive, harmful measure?

The reduction will discourage the use of clean renewable energy in favour of higher imports and a move towards dangerous and expensive sources of energy.

The consequences of a reduction of unit price will thus be far reaching beyond the loss to the prosumer.

Lithium battery storage options mean that even when the sun stops shining at night or in the wet season the solar panel produced energy can continue to be used. It is very likely that current solar companies will need to diversify to survive and move towards lithium battery storage solutions and inverters so that year long, 24-hour access to energy is available without recourse to the national grid for their customers. As individuals and institutions go off grid CEB’s income will dwindle in the long run as the private sector takes over.

Recommendations to the cabinet

We make the following recommendations to the Government of Sri Lanka:

(i) At present we have a fragile grid, and the CEB should strenuously endeavour to minimise energy leakages and improve the grid by replacing weak transformers and grid lines. Such continuous improvements will enable us to move towards a “Smart Grid” enabling absorption of large amounts of intermittent renewable energies like wind and solar.

(ii) At present we have ~1500 MW of renewables installed, comparable to hydroelectricity. When solar power is plentiful during the daytime, hydro power can be reduced simply by controlling the water flow without any technical difficulties. This is one way of assuring energy storage while balancing the grid energy.

(iii) Another solution for this is pumped-water storage plants. It is important to follow through with such measures which have now been under discussion for some time.

(iv) The future energy carrier is green hydrogen (GH) produced by electrolysing water using both wind and solar. A global Green Hydrogen revolution is taking place, and GH can be used to run vehicles using fuel cell technology. Trains and buses are being run with GH technology in Europe. GH can also be converted into ammonia and methanol to produce fertilizer and be applied for other industrial uses. Sri Lanka must not be left behind.

(v) GH can be stored and burned whenever energy is needed, especially during nighttime. Only water vapour is produced during the burning of hydrogen without any air pollution. Sri Lanka already has the Sobhadanavi LNG plant which is almost ready to use. Since we must import LNG to run this power plant, we should be able to reduce the LNG import bill by half by mixing the natural gas (methane) with the locally produced GH. See here:

(vi) Local solar energy companies should install high quality solar energy systems and provide “after sale services” in accordance with their guarantees.

(vii) PV companies should also be encouraged to collaborate with local electronics departments to manufacture accessories like inverters and other components needed for these systems, creating new jobs, and reducing the total cost of the systems.

(viii) In addition to grid tied solar roofs, the PV companies should also market hot water systems and water pumping systems. As a country reliant mainly on agriculture, solar water pumping and drip irrigation systems, especially in the dry zone, provide a huge potential for increasing food production.

(ix) Battery capacities are improving, and costs are coming down. This can be encouraged pending replacing grid infrastructure.

(x) It is important to increase public awareness through government funded campaigns. The public should recognise the dangers of using imported and expensive fossil fuel and the importance of using renewables.

(xi) The public should also recognise the advantages of having a clean environment, health benefits and enhanced living conditions.

(xii) A community development project called “Solar Village” to empower needy communities, accelerate their sustainable development, reduce poverty and take climate action has been developed over the past two decades. Seven solar villages have been established and funding for three more solar villages have been obtained.

Solar Village SDG, a UK based community interest company has been established to encourage the use of renewables and to pilot programmes which will support sustainable development goals. This includes providing access to a quality education for all via smart rooms which will be set up alongside solar villages in rural schools. Such initiatives could be encouraged and supported.

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Opinion

How monks practice Buddhism in Sri Lanka

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Time was when we had to observe the five precepts chanting in front of the omnipresent Buddha statue in every Buddhist household, and pay homage to parents straight afterwards. Attend mandatory Sunday schools, trek about 6 miles (return) to Moratu Vidyalaya’s main hall together as a family on Fridays to listen to a sermon by erudite visiting monks from the Vajiraramaya and elsewhere.

Having been settled in the UK for half a century, I can only go by what I read and hear from Sri Lankan friends and families. All those practices seem to have changed for the worse, sadly! Living in luxury, temples are run on business models nowadays! Monks ask what they wish to eat at alms-givings, including pork, etc., tell how much it costs the laypeople to invite them, etc! Unbelievable to say the least! I dare say it seems to start from the top of the hierarchy – the Kandy Temples, where the prelates live and are patronised by all politicians from Presidents, Prime Ministers and others! Some monks engaging in politics is not uncommon! For example, a recent statement made by Ven. Dodampahala Rahula Thera during a religious ceremony held to bless former President Ranil Wickremesinghe on his birthday has sparked widespread discussion on social media.

Speaking at the event, Ven. Rahula Thera had claimed that he had advised then-President Wickremesinghe not to import fuel ahead of the 2024 Presidential Election. However, the Thera has since clarified that the remark was made in error due to the pressure of the moment. Pertinent question is why did he choose such intervention?

All these are in such sharp contrast to Buddhist monks in the Western world and South East Asia where they shun luxury to lead a truly monastic lifestyle in order to practise what they preach.

Respected and loved in his own country as a man of great wisdom, Ajahn Cha was also instrumental in establishing Theravada Buddhism in the West. Beginning in 1979 with the founding of Cittaviveka commonly known as Chithurst Buddhist Monastery) in the United Kingdom, the Forest Tradition of Ajahn Chah has spread throughout Europe, the United States and the British Commonwealth. The dhamma talks of Ajahn Chah have been recorded, transcribed and translated into several languages.

More than one million people, including the Thai Royal Family attended Ajahn Chah’s funeral in January 1993 held a year after his death due to the “hundreds of thousands of people expected to attend”. He left behind a legacy of dhamma talks, students, and monasteries. The little I know of Buddhism teaches me to practice His Noble Teachings. It follows therefore the importance of listening to practising Buddhist monks who actually command respect, not by their titles! They don’t mean anything to me. Not familiar with various Nikayas, I think Buddhist monks should have both their shoulders properly covered in the interests of propriety! Though not a vegetarian, I believe in Ahimsa as even little spiders feel pain. Though my wife is scared of them, I tell her they are scared of her, more to the point! So, I catch the innocent crawly creatures by hand to throw them out of harm’s way! We have stopped the practice of throwing inevitable food waste into Council provided bins, instead collect them on a regular basis to feed wildlife we have in abundance around rural Wales we live in. They are all gone the following day including old marrow bones after our two little dogs finish with them! It gives us great pleasure! In the end, it all boils down to respecting Mother Nature! It’s Mother’s Day today to remember Mother Nature and how proud I am of my surname!

Sunil Dharmabandhu

Wales, UK

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Opinion

East awaits PM Modi’s visit

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PM Modi

Former Vice Chancellor, Eastern University

President, Batticaloa District Chamber of Commerce, Industries, and Agriculture (BDCCIA)

It has been announced that Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi will be visiting Sri Lanka this week

It is also understood that the Prime Minister will meet the Sri  Lankan leaders and hold formal meetings for discussion and action. There will likely be many issues on the agenda.

However, in a country with centuries-old ties to India and a significant population with strong affiliations to the Indian people, it will be a pity if the Prime Minister were to limit his engagements to government representatives alone. While parliamentarians may be an obvious choice for meetings, they have already engaged with Indian counterparts frequently. It would be more relevant for the Prime Minister to meet with representatives from business sectors, trade unions, and chambers of commerce to gain a broader and more practical understanding of Sri Lanka’s economic landscape and its relations with India.

The Eastern Province, in particular, has a special claim for attention. The Indian government has previously indicated its commitment to developing the East, and it is crucial to have direct discussions with communities in the Eastern Province to understand their issues and the agreements India is willing to pursue in relation to development. If this does not happen, the Eastern Province risks being, once again, misled by promises that never materialise—a mirage that keeps its people hopeful but ultimately unfulfilled. The East has long remained in the blind spot of development, acknowledged but never truly engaged, resulting in rising poverty and unemployment. It desperately needs a concrete programme for meaningful restoration and growth.

Batticaloa, in particular, lacks both the political backing that Ampara enjoys and the economic advantage of Trincomalee, which benefits from its harbour. Without targeted intervention, Batticaloa and other underserved areas in the East will continue to lag behind.

India needs to be more aware of the Eastern Province’s potential if it is to play a constructive role in its development. The region is naturally gifted with abundant resources, making it highly suitable for agriculture, fisheries, dairy farming, and tourism. It has vast lagoons, water bodies (Thonas) that connect to the sea, forests, and coastal ecosystems—elements that create immense economic potential. India has expertise in all these sectors, and tourism, in particular, could thrive with increased engagement, given the presence of Hindu temples of cultural and religious significance to the Indian population.

The dry zone, which dominates the North and East, shares similarities with Indian landscapes, making it ideal for cultivating crops and flowers with mutual trade agreements. Expanding fisheries within the 200-mile exclusive economic zone in the East, as well as harnessing ocean floor resources, presents a valuable opportunity for both India and the Eastern Province. Additionally, the large cattle population in the region could greatly benefit from India’s expertise in dairy production, as India is the world’s largest milk producer. The vast lagoons in the East rival those of Kerala, offering significant potential for inland tourism with boat services and associated activities.

The scope for development is clear, but what remains uncertain is India’s real commitment as a development partner, as stated by the Sri Lankan government. The Prime Minister’s visit must engage with all communities to ensure transparency and assurance that the East will not be left behind.

It is also crucial for the Eastern Province to be treated with the same level of importance as the North. The North has its own dedicated branch of the Indian High Commission, and the Malayagam community has established formal links with India. However, the Eastern Province appears to be the forgotten limb in this equation, and this neglect must be addressed.

The Eastern Province also continues to grapple with unresolved issues from the past conflict, including physical and cultural encroachments. The region was separated from the North through a court ruling two decades after the Indo-Sri Lanka Agreement’s merger of the North and East, yet it has never had the referendum required by law. India’s interests in Trincomalee and its harbour are well known, but the larger population of the Eastern Province is still awaiting India’s engagement in the region’s overall development. The people in the East want India to be truly committed to facilitating progress in their region, and will eagerly look to see that its actions reflect that commitment.

Let us hope that this visit brings a mirror of true reflection and action, rather than be another mirage of unfulfilled promises.

by Prof. Emeritus Thangamuthu Jayasingam

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