Features

Inflation – Public Enemy Number One

Published

3 years ago

2023/12/20

Central Bank Governor Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe

[An article based on the Keynote Address delivered by Dr. P. Nandalal Weerasinghe, Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, recently at the Annual Research Symposium 2023 of the University of Colombo]

Introduction

Inflation affects every aspect of our lives; it is a force that shapes our purchasing power, influences our financial decisions, and impacts the overall stability of our society. In the year 2022, inflation reached extraordinary levels globally, driven by the lagged effects of ultra-easy monetary and fiscal support following the COVID-19 pandemic, supply shortages and capacity constraints, along with supply chain issues. Affected by global as well as domestic factors, Sri Lanka also experienced inflation at unprecedented levels in 2022. However, in late 2022, Sri Lanka entered an impressive disinflation path, eventually bringing inflation down to the targeted levels within a period of one year. Sri Lanka’s swift disinflationary process was supported by a combination of policy measures implemented by both the Central Bank and the Government.

In the forthcoming sections, I will delve into international experience and the academic outcomes on the causes and consequences of inflation; the role of monetary policy in coping with inflation; the dynamics of Sri Lanka’s high inflation episode; and the role of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka in managing inflation and inflation expectations, with special emphasis to the new Central Bank of Sri Lanka Act. A better understanding of the above could help shape academic research, which would also contribute towards effective policymaking and business decisions.

Declaring inflation as a public enemy

Inflation, a fundamental concept in economics, refers to the sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. When inflation occurs, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services than it did before, leading to a decrease in the purchasing power of money. Over the years, economists and policymakers emphasised the seriousness and negative impact of inflation on the economy and people’s lives.

High inflation episodes have been a recurring phenomenon in economic history, causing significant challenges for nations and their citizens. It was in this context that Gerald Ford, the 38th president of the United States, even declared inflation as public enemy number one. In one of President Ford’s addresses to Congress in 1974 he stated “Only two of my predecessors have come in person to call upon Congress for a declaration of war, and I shall not do that. But I say to you with all sincerity that our inflation, our public enemy number one, will, unless whipped, destroy our country, our homes, our liberties, our property, and finally our national pride, as surely as any well-armed wartime enemy.” President Ford introduced the slogan “Whip Inflation Now (WIN)” as part of his campaign to fight inflation and even started wearing buttons with “WIN”. Although the outcome of this campaign is debatable, it illustrates how much of a problem inflation was in the 1970s.

Historical episodes of high inflation

Indeed, many countries have grappled with high inflation – and in some cases hyperinflation. One of the most infamous cases of hyperinflation occurred in Germany during the early 1920s. Following World War I, Germany experienced a severe economic crisis exacerbated by the reparations imposed by the Treaty of Versailles. The German government printed an excessive amount of money to meet its obligations, leading to hyperinflation. Prices skyrocketed, and people’s savings became worthless. At its peak, prices were doubling every few days, and workers were paid multiple times a day. Zimbabwe, in the late 2000s, faced hyperinflation due to a combination of economic mismanagement, land reforms, and political instability. The government printed money recklessly, causing prices to soar at an astronomical rate. At its peak, in mid-November 2008, Zimbabwe’s hyperinflation reached an astounding monthly rate of around 500 billion per cent (Moyo, 2023). The Zimbabwean dollar became practically worthless, and the country abandoned its own currency, relying on foreign currencies for transactions. Similarly, countries such as Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela experienced hyperinflation crises from time to time since the 1980s.

Why high inflation or hyperinflation is bad?

Inflation represents how much more expensive the relevant set of goods or services has become over a certain period, most commonly a year. To the extent that households’ nominal income does not increase as much as prices, they are worse off, because they can afford to purchase less. In other words, households’ purchasing power or real income (inflation-adjusted income) falls. Real income is a proxy for the standard of living. When real incomes are rising, so is the standard of living, and vice versa.

Savers and investors suffer significant losses during periods of high inflation. The real value of savings diminishes rapidly, while investors experience a decline in the real returns of their investments. Moreover, high inflation breeds uncertainty in the economy. Businesses face difficulties in planning for the future, unsure of their future costs and revenues. This uncertainty leads to reduced investments and hampers economic growth. Furthermore, nations experiencing high inflation find their international competitiveness severely compromised. As domestic prices rise, the cost of exports increases, making products less competitive in the global market. This situation can lead to trade imbalances and hinder economic recovery efforts, further exacerbating the challenges posed by high inflation.

Although high inflation hurts an economy, deflation, or falling prices, is not desirable either. When prices are falling, consumers delay making purchases if they can, anticipating lower prices in the future. For the economy, this means less economic activity, less income generated by producers, and lower economic growth. As you may know, Japan is one country with a long period of nearly no economic growth, largely because of deflation. Given the above, most economists now believe that low, stable, and most importantly predictable inflation is good for an economy. If inflation is low and predictable, it is easier to capture it in price-adjustment contracts and interest rates, reducing its distortionary impact.

What causes inflation?

Inflation could be influenced by numerous factors. Understanding these diverse causes of inflation is essential for academics as well as policymakers to recommend and implement appropriate measures to maintain stable prices and support sustainable economic growth. Demand-pull inflation occurs when the demand for goods and services exceeds their supply. When the demand outstrips supply, businesses often raise prices to maximise their profits. Cost-push inflation occurs when the cost to produce goods and services increases, leading businesses to pass these additional costs on to consumers in the form of higher prices. This can be caused by rising wages, increased costs of raw materials, or other production-related expenses. Expectations also play a key role in determining inflation. If people or firms anticipate higher prices, they build these expectations into wage negotiations and contractual price adjustments. To the extent that people base their expectations on the recent past (adaptive expectations), inflation would follow similar patterns over time, resulting in inflation inertia.

In the long run, inflation is primarily caused by factors related to the overall increase in the money supply in an economy relative to the growth in the real output of goods and services. If the money supply grows too big relative to the size of an economy, the unit value of the currency diminishes; in other words, its purchasing power falls and prices rise. Milton Friedman, a Nobel laureate in economics, argued that “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” Friedman argued that changes in the money supply, driven by central bank policies and other monetary factors, are the primary drivers of inflation in the long run, while other factors can cause short-term fluctuations in prices. While Friedman’s insight into the monetary roots of inflation remains a fundamental principle, economists and policymakers now consider a broader array of factors when analysing inflationary trends. Modern economic analysis incorporates a more holistic approach, recognising the interplay of various elements in shaping inflationary outcomes.

How policymakers deal with inflation and the role of monetary policy

The policies aimed at reducing inflation depend to a great extent on the causes of inflation. If the economy has overheated and inflation is primarily demand-driven, central banks can implement contractionary monetary policy that rein in aggregate demand. Indeed, the central banks play a crucial role in controlling inflation through monetary policy.

One of the primary objectives of monetary policy, as emphasised by many central banks around the world, is maintaining price stability. Price stability is crucial for a healthy economy as it ensures that the purchasing power of a currency remains relatively constant over time. Economists have argued that stable prices create a favourable environment for long-term economic growth and investment (e.g., Mishkin, 2007). Moreover, monetary policy also plays a role in promoting economic growth. Studies by Romer (1993) and Barro and Sala-i-Martin (2004) suggest that stable monetary policies are positively correlated with long-term economic growth.

Central banks use a range of tools to influence the money supply and interest rates, affecting inflation. Traditional tools include policy interest rates, open market operations, and reserve requirements. Following the 2008 financial crisis, central banks implemented unconventional monetary policies, such as forward guidance, quantitative easing (asset purchasing) and negative interest rates. Furthermore, central bankers are increasingly relying on their ability to influence inflation expectations as an inflation-reduction tool. Policymakers announce their intention to keep economic activity low temporarily to bring down inflation, hoping to influence expectations. The more credibility central banks have, the greater the influence of their pronouncements on inflation expectations.

However, monetary policy is faced with increasing challenges and trade-offs. For example, the Phillips curve, which describes the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment or output, has been the subject of extensive research. Studies that integrate monetary policy, inflation, and output stabilisation, have provided insights into the trade-offs faced by policymakers (e.g., Clarida, Gali, and Gertler, 1999) when achieving price stability. Furthermore, with increased globalisation, international factors can have a heightened impact on domestic inflation (e.g., Obstfeld and Rogoff, 2002). This sheds light on the complexities of maintaining price stability in a globalised world.

Across the globe, monetary policy frameworks cover various approaches, strategies, and models employed by central banks to achieve their objectives, such as price stability. Among those, inflation targeting has been a widely adopted monetary policy framework since the 1990s. Under inflation targeting, central banks set explicit inflation targets and use policy instruments to achieve them. Studies show that countries adopting inflation targeting are benefited in terms of providing clear objectives to the stakeholders and enhanced transparency (Bernanke, Laubach, Mishkin, and Posen, 1999). Many central banks have moved toward flexible inflation targeting, a special case of inflation targeting, which allows temporary deviations from the target to accommodate shocks to the real economy. Flexible inflation targeting has its advantages in terms of stabilising both inflation and the real economy (Svensson, 2010).

Global inflation in 2023

Despite the advances in monetary policy frameworks, across the globe, inflation accelerated to unprecedented levels during the year 2022. According to the IMF, global inflation accelerated to 8.7 per cent in 2022, from 4.7 per cent in the previous year, reflecting the impact of the lagged effects of ultra-easy monetary and fiscal support following the COVID-19 pandemic, shortages of fuel and nonfuel commodities exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and capacity constraints along with supply chain issues. Many countries allowed the passthrough of high global prices to the domestic economy, as administrative price-setting measures that are not cost-reflective usually result in the government’s accrual of large subsidy bills to compensate producers for their lost income.

However, in light of substantial monetary tightening by major central banks in the world, the resultant slowing of economic activity, easing supply chain disruptions, and moderating prices of energy and other commodities, inflation started to moderate in 2023. Nonetheless, the forecast levels of inflation in 2023 and 2024 are still higher than the pre-pandemic (2017–2019) levels of around 3.5 per cent. Moreover, the underlying price pressures are proving sticky, with labour markets tight in several economies. Therefore, core (underlying) inflation is likely to decline more slowly in the period ahead. Further, with rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, upside risks to global inflation are on the rise.

Sri Lanka’s economic crisis and the rise in inflation

In 2022, Sri Lanka experienced its worst-ever economic crisis, which had been in the making for many years, triggered by policy errors and exacerbated by other exogenous factors. Failure to build fiscal and external buffers over time made the nation vulnerable to domestic and external shocks, and the COVID-19 pandemic and the related shocks exposed the vulnerabilities in the Sri Lankan economy, bringing about the worst economic crisis in Sri Lanka’s history. The resultant economic hardship led to public anxiety and political upheavals.

By early 2022, the economy faced severe challenges due to an unsustainable macroeconomic model along with persistent budget deficits and external account imbalances. These issues, influenced by global and domestic factors, had depleted the economy’s foreign reserves. As a result, the country experienced intense pressure on its balance of payments (BOP), leading to a shortage of foreign exchange, a weakened exchange rate, soaring inflation, and reduced economic activity.

Although Sri Lanka managed to have single-digit inflation for over 12 years since 2009, inflation rose to historically high levels in 2022 stemming from global oil and other commodity price hikes, adjustments to domestic administrative prices, domestic supply disruptions, the substantial depreciation of the Sri Lanka rupee against the US dollar and the lagged effects of extended period of relaxed monetary policy following the COVID-19 pandemic. Contrary to the co-movement in inflation and economic growth in regular business cycles, Sri Lanka witnessed inflation and economic growth moving in opposite directions, as supply, as well as demand-driven inflation, accelerated overall inflation and economic growth stalled.

Measures taken to overcome the sharp rise in inflation

Several policy measures have been taken by the Central Bank to stabilise the economy and tighten monetary and credit conditions. With a view to countering rising inflationary pressures and anchoring inflation expectations, the Central Bank tightened monetary policy significantly since August 2021, with a significant increase in policy interest rates happening in April 2022. Monetary policy had to be conducted with an unprecedented level of deliberations, as the country entered a phase of high inflation and economic stagnation and tightening of monetary conditions will not only result in a reduction in inflation, but also economic growth. In parallel, the Central Bank also implemented a series of policy measures aimed at maintaining external sector stability and reducing import demand.

Since the beginning of the monetary tightening cycle in August 2021, the Central Bank’s key policy interest rates, i.e., Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR), were raised by 11 percentage points till March 2023. Furthermore, during this tightening phase, the Central Bank increased the Statutory Reserve Ratio (SRR) by 2 percentage points, while several caps on interest rates were removed, allowing for greater upward adjustments in market interest rates. The unprecedented upward adjustment of policy interest rates helped arrest the further build-up of demand-driven inflationary pressures, thereby pre-empting the escalation of adverse inflationary expectations, easing the pressure on the external sector, and correcting anomalies observed in the market interest rate structure.

(To be continued)

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Features

Beyond traditional jobs: Why Sri Lanka needs to facilitate the gig economy

Published

1 day ago

2026/09/25

Thilina Walpola

Image courtesy Oxford University

by Kapila Chinthaka Premarathne
Head of the Department of Agricultural Systems and a Senior Lecturer in Agricultural Economics at the Faculty of Agriculture,
Rajarata University of Sri Lanka

Beyond the Graduate Unemployment Number

Sri Lanka’s economic recovery has improved macroeconomic stability, but youth unemployment remains a significant labour-market concern. Around 43% of Sri Lankan youth aged 15–24 with postsecondary education are unemployed, the highest among the Asian economies compared in the IMF analysis, compared with about 36% in Bangladesh and 13.2% in Thailand. This reflects a problem of skills mismatches and the difficulty of connecting higher education with changing labour-market demand. The concern goes beyond unemployment itself. Sri Lanka has invested heavily in educating its younger population, yet the conventional labour market is not creating enough opportunities to convert these qualifications into income. Many young people possess degrees, technical knowledge and growing digital familiarity, but remain outside formal employment because suitable jobs may not exist in the right place, at the right time or under conditions compatible with their circumstances. This makes it necessary to think beyond traditional employment models and explore new ways of connecting Sri Lanka’s educated youth with economic opportunities.

This is where Sri Lanka needs to reconsider how it understands employment

Employment has traditionally been viewed through the employer–employee relationship, with qualifications leading to a formal job and regular salary. While this model remains important, digital platforms are creating new ways to generate income, allowing individuals to work for multiple clients across geographical boundaries without permanent employment. Sri Lanka therefore needs to look beyond simply creating conventional jobs and consider whether it is building the conditions for its educated population to participate in the growing global market for digital services.

The Opportunity of the Gig Economy

The gig economy extends far beyond ride-hailing and delivery services. Digital platforms increasingly connect skilled individuals with opportunities in software development, design, accounting, data analysis, digital marketing, translation, online education, research and consultancy. This is particularly relevant to Sri Lanka, where a highly educated population faces a relatively limited domestic market for specialised skills. Digital platforms can overcome geographical constraints by connecting Sri Lankan workers directly with international clients.

As highlighted in my previous LSE South Asia article on women and the gig economy, such work should not replace formal employment but can create additional income opportunities when supported by appropriate skills, digital infrastructure, training and institutional support. A skilled person in Anuradhapura, Jaffna, Batticaloa or Monaragala could potentially serve clients in London, Melbourne or Dubai without first relocating to Colombo. This makes the gig economy relevant not only to employment but also to Sri Lanka’s emerging digital services-export strategy.

A Digitally Familiar Generation

Sri Lanka’s younger generation is growing up with smartphones, social media, online learning, digital applications and digital financial services, giving them a level of digital familiarity that previous generations did not have. However, digital familiarity does not automatically translate into digital employability. The challenge is to transform everyday digital use into productive skills such as data analysis, artificial intelligence, software development, digital marketing, financial analysis and online professional services.

Sri Lanka therefore needs to move young people from being consumers of digital services to producers of digital value. Universities, vocational institutions and training providers can play an important role in converting existing digital familiarity into marketable skills that connect young people with both domestic and international opportunities. This is increasingly important as technological change and AI reshape labour markets and intensify the need for skills that match emerging forms of work.

The Gender Dimension

The gig economy may be particularly relevant to women, who often face barriers to conventional employment arising from childcare, eldercare, mobility, social expectations and rigid working arrangements. For mothers and women living outside major urban centres, fixed working hours and daily commuting can make formal employment difficult even when suitable jobs exist.

Digital gig work can provide greater flexibility, allowing women to undertake professional assignments from home or their communities and potentially serve international clients without relocating. As discussed in my earlier LSE South Asia article, this opportunity is most meaningful when supported by digital infrastructure, skills training, virtual work hubs, mentorship and appropriate institutional support. However, flexibility should expand women’s economic choices rather than simply add paid work to existing unpaid household responsibilities.

Pressure on Labour-Market Opportunity

The value of a job cannot be judged by salary alone, as commuting, working hours and household responsibilities can significantly affect its real economic value. Flexible digital work can potentially reduce some of these costs by allowing people to work from home or nearby digital hubs and participate in employment on a part-time or project basis. While gig work cannot solve all household pressures, a more flexible organisation of work can create additional employment opportunities while helping households manage their limited time and resources more effectively.

A Possible Third Option Between Unemployment and Migration

Sri Lanka’s migration and brain-drain concerns highlight the need to explore employment opportunities beyond the domestic labour market. While overseas migration will remain an important individual and economic choice, digital work can provide another pathway by allowing skilled Sri Lankans to serve international clients without physically leaving the country. Software developers, designers, analysts, researchers, translators and consultants can potentially earn from global markets while remaining in Sri Lanka. Digital gig work cannot eliminate migration or reverse brain drain, but it can create an additional option between domestic unemployment and physical migration—working for the world while remaining in Sri Lanka.

Recognising and Making Digital Work Reputable

A major institutional gap is that conventional systems are designed around salaried employment, while a freelancer may earn from multiple clients without a single employer or salary certificate. This can make legitimate digital workers difficult to recognise when they seek loans, leasing, insurance or business finance. Sri Lanka could address this through a voluntary digital-worker or independent-professional registration mechanism, providing a recognised economic identity based on qualifications, verified skills, platform activity and documented income, without creating unnecessary bureaucracy.

Such recognition should also make digital income bankable. Banks could assess verified platform earnings, bank transactions, contracts, invoices, tax records, savings and repayment history alongside conventional employment documents. A standardised digital income statement could further help workers demonstrate their financial capacity. The key shift is from asking “Who is your employer?” to asking “Can your income be verified and is it sufficiently stable?”. This would allow successful digital workers to build financial credibility and use their earnings to access credit, acquire assets and develop their own businesses.

Digital Payments Are Part of the Labour Market

Access to reliable international payment systems is essential if Sri Lankans are to participate effectively in the global digital economy. Recent developments in PayPal’s local banking arrangements, including its partnerships with Sampath Bank and Commercial Bank, indicate progress in this direction. However, the broader priority should be a regulated and efficient digital-payment ecosystem that allows workers to receive international earnings, transfer them to Sri Lankan bank accounts, document their income and meet relevant financial and tax requirements with minimal friction. International payment infrastructure is therefore not simply a technology issue; it is an essential component of Sri Lanka’s emerging services-export economy.

Building Infrastructure Outside Colombo

Digital familiarity alone is insufficient without reliable internet, electricity, computers, software and suitable working environments, particularly in rural and underserved areas. To ensure that the gig economy supports regional development rather than becoming another Colombo-centred opportunity, Sri Lanka could establish regional digital-work hubs through universities, vocational institutions, libraries and public-private partnerships. These hubs could provide connectivity, equipment, training, mentoring and assistance with platform registration and international payments. If graduates must migrate to Colombo simply to access such infrastructure, the geographical advantage of digital work is significantly reduced.

From Freelancer to Entrepreneur

Gig work should not be viewed as an end in itself. A person may begin with small online assignments, develop regular clients and professional credibility, and eventually establish a small digital enterprise. This creates a potential pathway from graduate to freelancer, professional service provider and entrepreneur, allowing individuals to create markets around their own skills rather than waiting for conventional vacancies. Universities can support this transition by teaching students not only subject knowledge but also portfolio development, market identification, client communication, digital platforms and contract management. A degree demonstrates educational attainment, while a professional portfolio demonstrates what a graduate can offer to the market.

Facilitation Must Be Matched by Protection

Promoting the gig economy without appropriate safeguards could simply transfer employment risks from institutions to individuals. Digital workers may face uncertain incomes, weak bargaining power and limited social protection. Sri Lanka should therefore facilitate digital work while also ensuring opportunities for independent workers to build savings, access insurance and participate in portable social-protection mechanisms. Flexibility should create greater economic choice without compromising long-term financial security, particularly for women.

A regional Example from India: Think Globally and act Locally

India provides a useful regional example of how the gig economy can be approached as a policy issue rather than simply as informal or temporary work. NITI Aayog has estimated the size and future employment potential of India’s gig and platform economy and has developed recommendations covering employment generation, skills, financial inclusion and social protection. More importantly, India has begun creating institutional mechanisms around these workers. Its e-Shram portal provides a national database of unorganised workers, including gig and platform workers, creating a recognised identity through which workers can potentially access employment, skills development and social-security services. India has also explored platform-led skills development through skill certificates, skill passports and on-the-job training, while NITI Aayog has proposed cash-flow-based lending models that could allow platform workers to demonstrate creditworthiness through their earnings rather than conventional employment or collateral.

Social protection has also entered the policy framework. India’s Code on Social Security, 2020 formally recognises gig and platform workers and provides a basis for schemes covering areas such as accident insurance, health, maternity, disability and old-age protection. India is still developing and refining these arrangements, and Sri Lanka need not replicate the Indian model.

However, the experience demonstrates an important policy lesson: the gig economy can be supported through a system that identifies workers, develops their skills, makes their income more visible to financial institutions and extends appropriate social protection. Sri Lanka could develop its own simpler framework suited to its smaller economy, beginning with recognising digital workers and building the institutional conditions that allow their skills and earnings to become part of the formal economy.

Rethinking Employment and the Next Opportunity

The 43 percent figure for educated young Sri Lankans should encourage a wider discussion about the changing nature of work. Sri Lanka will continue to need conventional employment through firms, industries, farms, professional organisations and public institutions, but the changing labour market also requires new opportunities to connect educated Sri Lankans with global digital markets. The gig economy can provide an additional pathway to increase female labour-force participation, reduce the pressure for migration and brain drain, and connect Sri Lankan skills with markets beyond geographical boundaries.

This does not require a complicated bureaucracy. It requires recognising legitimate digital workers, facilitating access to international platforms and payment systems, allowing verified digital income to support credit assessment, developing portable social protection, and strengthening digital infrastructure and skills beyond major urban centres. Better data on digital workers would also help policymakers develop evidence-based interventions.

The future of work is therefore not only about creating more jobs, but about creating more ways for Sri Lankans to work, earn and build livelihoods while continuing to live and contribute in Sri Lanka. The gig economy should be recognised as part of an emerging digital labour market and services-export economy, where workers can build professional identities, earn internationally, access finance and eventually develop their own enterprises.

Features

Are religions getting redundant in the modern world?

Published

1 day ago

2026/09/25

Thilina Walpola

by Dr Upul Wijayawardhana

We are living in an era of astonishingly rapid scientific advancement. From the time Apple launched the ‘iPhone’ in January 2007, the first targeting the mass market, smartphones have taken over the world, making them indispensable. According to the latest statistics, there are around 8.1 billion mobile phones with 7.4 billion active smartphones, for the world population of 8.25 billion. Except for a tiny minority of the very poor, most people have at least one smartphone.

We are now entering the era of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and smart robots. Recently, a ‘Chinese’ robot ran 100 metres faster than Usain Bolt! Though Alan Turing proposed the idea of ‘Thinking Machines’ way back in 1950, the real AI boom commenced with the release of the generative AI chatbot, ChatGPT, by OpenAI in November 2020. Number of technology firms in the US as well as in China have joined the race, China catching up very fast, quite unexpectedly. There is a frenzy at the moment, raising expectations, as the imminent floating of these companies is likely to value the two leaders, OpenAI and Anthropic, trillion dollars each!

However, trouble is brewing in the AI field. On top of the concerns raised by environmentalists regarding the huge power drain by AI centres, there are recent reports of some AI models hacking independently into other systems, without human input. Worse still, a senior researcher at Anthropic, who has previously worked for OpenAI as well, resigned in early September on ethical grounds stating that the way the two companies are fast-tracking AI poses an existential threat to humanity. Surprisingly, instead of a rebuttal the head of Anthropic supported his view, soon joined by three more heads of leading AI developers. Whilst they agreed on slowing progress, President Trump has claimed that slowing is totally unnecessary as long as a super intelligent President like himself is at the helm! There does not seem to be an end to Trump’s grandiosity! He was joined by Tony Blair. In contrast, King Charles held a summit with representatives of all AI developers to find a way AI could be developed without a threat to humanity. That is how wise leaders act!

Less sophisticated AI tools are already in widespread use and installed in computers, laptops and smartphones. Some of us are using these automatically. However, the more advanced AI tools like ChatGPT can change even reality. For instance, AI can generate videos hardly distinguishable from real ones. What you enjoy watching on YouTube may be just the creations of AI! Some people use AI to write articles; only a few of them admit that they do so. Very soon we may be reading stories AI creates and listening to music, courtesy of AI. Technology seems to be fast becoming the new religion? Or, will the existential threat move us more towards religion?

Religion, perhaps, is as old as humanity itself; various belief systems evolving and disappearing coupled with the fortunes of the associated civilizations. Just like AI, religion is also a creation of the human mind which our ancestors did to explain many phenomena which appeared, at that time, to be supernatural. Starting with Animism, perceiving the divine in the natural world around, humans went on to Polytheism, believing in many gods like in Hinduism, culminating in the concept of Monotheism.

World’s oldest religion, Hinduism, still in wide practice, is devoid of a founder or a single text. The earliest scriptures, Rigveda, is considered to be around 3,500 years old but archaeologists have discovered symbols of importance to Hinduism as far back as 7,000 BCE. Though it is considered to be Polytheistic, it can be argued that it was the precursor of Monotheism, the concept of a creator God, as Brahma was the creator in the triad, Trimurti, Vishnu being the preserver and Shiva being the destroyer. It seems to be a sensible balancing act; create, destroy and repair with improvements.

It is pretty obvious that as science expands, the importance of religion contracts but it is hardly likely religions would be totally redundant. We have no choice as to which family we are born to and that invariably determines what your religion would be, if any. Religion is the first brainwashing a child encounters and most remain in the same faith, often trying to defend even the indefensible, but some change through conviction or conversion due to one of many reasons. Further, religious rituals have social values and religious practices often come to one’s solace at times of distress. Therefore, many will continue with the religion they were born to but with declining enthusiasm, at times. However, some religions seem to be facing problems like falling attendances in places of worship. With education and tech savviness expanding, one would expect the youth to be less enthusiastic about religion but the converse is true in some religions, some youth becoming very militant unfortunately.

While most religions make you subservient to a supernatural power, the Buddha was wise and bold enough to remove those shackles. He proclaimed that one’s destiny is in one’s own hands. However, many Buddhists appear to attach greater significance to rituals than to practising the Dhamma.

Buddhism as a religion may become less relevant as the frontiers of science expands but the Buddha Dhamma, especially Abhidhamma and Vipassana, would receive increasing recognition, the Buddha remaining an authority on consciousness and the mind.

Scientific progress should be for the betterment of society but AI developers are taking huge risks, taking massive loans threatening the world economy, for one aim: profit! Some do not seem to care even if their actions pose an existential threat to humanity.

Perhaps, if the Four Sublime Attitudes (Sathara Brahma Vihara) expounded by the Buddha; loving kindness (Metta), compassion (Karuna), empathetic joy (Muditha) and equanimity (Upekkha) are adopted as universal values, the world would become a safer place to live in, with or without AI.

Features

‘The Bullet that Missed’

Published

1 day ago

2026/09/25

Thilina Walpola

Tales of Mystery and Suspense 21

by Prof. Rajiva Wijesinha

Another book that is part of a series, today—one that is fun without the brooding concentration on criminality in different forms that marks the Rebus novels. This one about the Thursday Murder Club, is a romp as its two predecessors were interspersed with deaths and what might be deaths.

The Bullet that Missed

begins with a meeting with the presenter of ‘South East Tonight’, a programme about the area, in which Coopers Chase is situated. The meeting is held because the club has decided to look into the murder of the producer’s assistant, Bethany Waites, whose car was found at the bottom of a cliff ten years ago. There was blood in it, but the body was never found.

Or, rather, the book begins with an account of Bethany Waites deciding, on the night she vanished, to meet someone in connection with a case of massive fraud that she had been investigating, after sending the producer, Mike Waghorn, a message that she had found new evidence though he had no idea what it was. The night she died, she sent him another message: “I don’t say this often enough, but thank you.”

CCTV cameras showed her leaving her place, but then the vehicle vanished, before being sighted near the cliff, with two people in it. Investigation of the fraud had led to the imprisonment of a woman, Heather Garbutt, though it proved impossible to pin anything on Jack Mason, the mastermind for whom she had worked.

The Club conducts investigations on several fronts, including through Connie Johnson, the drug dealer they had helped imprison in the earlier book. The psychiatrist Ibrahim, the most respectable member of the Club, interviews her in an attempt to get her to find out more from Heather, who is in the same prison as she. They also investigate the CCTV record of the night Bethany vanished, and deduce that she went to an apartment block and exited from its other side, and that is why she was not seen leaving the town. But some time had elapsed between her being seen in the town and then on the cliff.

Meanwhile, Elizabeth has been kidnapped, along with her husband, and taken to a house in Staffordshire, where she is told by a man called the Viking that she must kill a former KGB agent now in London, who has a profitable career in money laundering. The Viking tells her he will inform Viktor that she was responsible for stealing the diamonds, the story of which is told in the previous Murder Club Mystery, and Viktor will then kill her.

Elizabeth, who has an affair with Viktor, knows he will not kill her, but when the Viking says he will also send Viktor a picture of Joyce, she decides she must act, and goes to see Viktor, and fires when she gets him in the bathroom. But, of course, she fired into the ceiling, and Viktor is then taken to Coopers Chase, to stay with Joyce until they have dealt with the Viking. And Viktor then enjoys the camaraderie of the retirement home so much that he wonders whether he too should settle there.

Elizabeth does trace the Viking, or rather her husband does, for he has noticed rare books on the shelves in his library, and an antiquarian book dealer friend managed to find out who bought them. But before they could confront him, he comes to Coopers Chase, for he has seen the bullet hole in the bathroom of Viktor’s flat and realized he was fooled.

But he cannot bring himself to kill Joyce straight away, and she knocks him out with a drug in a cup of tea. When he meets Viktor, they both decide to fall in with the plans of the Club.

Before this, Heather has been found dead in her cell, with a note saying that ‘they’ were going to kill her, and only Connie could help. Before that she had admitted that she was frightened to name the man behind the fraud. Jack Mason said the same, after Ron had won his confidence. The Club had deduced by then that the body was buried in the garden of Heather’s house which Jack had bought, after she had been jailed, and digging reveals a gun and money, but no body. Jack tells them that the mastermind had said that Bethany was buried with a bullet with his DNA on it.

The Club is now working with the Chief Constable of Kent, Andrew Everton, who writes thrillers himself, but in the form of e-books. He is in search of a publisher, and delighted when Mike Waghorn puts him on his programme, as is Donna, who is substituted at the last minute for Chris.

The Club finds out whom Bethany visited in the apartment block—Mike’s assistant Pauline, who tells them later what she and Bethany had been doing. But this is after the man behind the fraud has been unmasked up in the house in Staffordshire, where he was trying to hire the Viking and Viktor to find the money that he had stashed away, using accounts that he could no longer trace. He has also confessed to murdering Bethany, hoping this will persuade the two money launderers to help him, but it turns out that he did not do this. Nor did he kill Heather, the incriminating note having been placed in her room by Connie, who decided that Heather’s suicide should be treated as murder so that the person who had been blackmailing her should be found out.

It was Jack Mason’s murder that was brought home to the crook. It turns out that Bethany, her appearance altered by Pauline, has vanished, to a new life in Dubai, where she has taken control of the missing millions. She has gone there because the threat, she received through the bullet she was looking at in the preamble, was to Mike and she wanted him out of danger.

Yet another whimsical conclusion to a whimsical book with enough loose ends left hanging for another sequel.