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Between homefront policies and global developments: Sri Lanka’s external sector outlook

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By Nilupulee Rathnayake

Having weathered a challenging period marked by a deep economic crisis, Sri Lanka is now demonstrating positive signs of an economic upturn. Still, amidst limited homefront policy alternatives against an unfavourable global backdrop, a critical question arises: how will Sri Lanka’s external sector cope in the face of these challenges?

Notably, import controls, initially imposed in response to the dearth of foreign exchange liquidity in the domestic market, are being largely eased. The government is actively seeking to forge partnerships with regional giants, aiming to strengthen trade relations through Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). Nevertheless, in the broader global context, the rise of geopolitical rivalries, slow growth and contracting demand in key markets create multiple uncertainties for Sri Lanka’s external sector recovery.

Global Economic Developments: A Complex Web of Uncertainties

Globally, there are promising signs of economic progress in the near term. Supply chain disruptions, which significantly impacted various industries, have largely returned to pre-pandemic levels. Energy and food prices, having peaked during conflict-induced periods, have substantially subsided, alleviating global inflationary pressures faster than anticipated.

However, the global economic landscape remains overshadowed by a complex web of uncertainties. Political dysfunction in key economies and ongoing geopolitical rivalries present challenges. The United States’ imposition of bans on certain exports to Chinese firms exemplifies the extant geopolitical tensions. This growing inclination towards trade interventions through industrial policies, subsidies, and import restrictions, driven by national security and environmental considerations, has the potential to impact the trajectory of globalisation. These developments carry substantial implications for emerging and developing economies, particularly those deeply reliant on a globally integrated economy, foreign direct investment (FDI), and technology transfers. Economies contending with burgeoning sovereign debt overhangs in particular, are expected to face heightened vulnerabilities. Having defaulted in early 2022, Sri Lanka is among the countries particularly affected by these global economic shifts.

Sri Lanka’s Vulnerable Export Sector

In 2022, Sri Lanka recorded its lowest merchandise trade deficit since 2011, primarily due to reduced imports and an uptick in exports. Merchandise exports expanded by 4.9% in 2022 compared to the previous year, while import expenditure decreased by 11.4% in 2022 relative to 2021. The decrease in import expenditure stems from a combination of import restrictions and foreign exchange liquidity constraints.

However, as import controls ease and the economy gradually improves, a marginal increase in import expenditure is observed from June 2023 onwards. While improving consumer welfare and food security, this move may negatively impact the trade deficit this year, especially as global demand for Sri Lanka’s primary exports, like tea and garments face a downturn – the former triggered by high production costs and the latter by contracting foreign demand.

Sri Lanka’s key export markets for garments, particularly in the US and Europe, are experiencing low growth and weakened demand since the fourth quarter of 2022. Consequently, monthly earnings from garment exports in August 2023 indicates a 26% decline compared to August 2022. Notable decreases in the import of Ceylon tea by prominent Sri Lankan tea importers in 2022 relative to 2021, including Russia (by 9.6%), the UAE (by 2.5%), and Turkey (by 47%), also highlight the vulnerability of Sri Lanka’s export sector to external shocks. The tea market’s condition has seen a modest improvement in 2023, though it has not been entirely resolved.

The concentration of Sri Lanka’s exports in terms of products and markets has long been a source of concern, rendering the economy exceedingly susceptible to sector-specific shocks.

Tourism and Worker Remittances: A Silver Lining

In a positive trajectory, 2023 has witnessed a notable increase in monthly tourist arrivals compared to the previous year, signalling a discernible recovery trend. Cumulative tourist arrivals from January to August 2023 amounted to 904,318, compared to 496,430 arrivals recorded during the corresponding period in 2022. Overcoming the challenges within this sector necessitates a coordinated effort from various stakeholders, including the government and the private sector, as Sri Lanka endeavours to reconstruct its brand identity as a secure and preferred destination.

Worker remittances, representing another crucial source of foreign exchange earnings, have exhibited promise. In the first half of 2023, worker remittances grew to USD 2.8 billion, however it remains below the pre-pandemic level of USD 3.6 billion recorded in the first half of 2018. While the Middle East remains a vital destination for Sri Lankan workers, alternative destinations offering employment across various job categories have emerged, including South Korea, Singapore, Japan, and several European countries. Notably though, the large-scale migration of workers, including white-collar employees, raises concerns regarding long-term economic repercussions due to brain drain.

Challenges in Attracting Foreign Investment

In a fiercely competitive global FDI landscape, political stability and a robust macroeconomic framework are paramount considerations for investors, especially given the numerous countries competing for their attention.

In the post-war period, Sri Lanka experienced its peak FDI inflows in 2018, attracting USD 1.6 billion. However, in 2022, this figure dwindled to USD 898 million, reflecting the adverse impact of the pandemic and economic challenges. Sri Lanka’s economic crisis – and the country’s sovereign default status together with public protests, strikes, and violence – reshaped the country’s perception as a not particularly attractive destination for foreign investors.

As Sri Lanka anticipates modest growth in the coming years, it becomes imperative not only to retain existing investors but also to proactively seek new investments within the current unfavourable climate. The Board of Investment (BOI) has targeted to attract USD 2 billion in FDI in 2023, with a particular focus on the tourism sector. An incentive package, potentially incorporating tax incentives, is being contemplated as a viable policy intervention, aligning with practices observed in peer countries aimed at attracting FDI.

Building Resilience and Diversification

Sri Lanka’s external sector has been susceptible to policy missteps that exposed it heavily to external global shocks. Building the economy’s resilience against external pressures must necessarily be a crucial part of the adjustment and recovery process. As import controls are also eased, to bridge the widening trade deficit, Sri Lanka needs to implement concrete policy measures to diversify its export basket and connect to global value chains.

Several initiatives have already been undertaken, for instance, to pursue fresh trade relationships with neighbouring giants. These trade agreements should be deep trade agreements that target not only merchandise trade but also services, FDI promotion, value addition, trade facilitation, and digitisation. In the near term, negotiations are ongoing on various stalled trade agreements with India, China, and Thailand, amongst others, while expressing interest in joining the RCEP trade bloc in the medium term.

However, notably, Sri Lanka can no longer approach efforts to expand and diversify exports in a piecemeal fashion and FTAs on their own will fail to deliver. High energy costs, labour shortages, and scaling back on infrastructure spending, amongst others, impact the operating environment for businesses. Sri Lanka’s longstanding structural bottlenecks must be overcome by implementing the necessary reforms to raise productivity for sustained growth if the country is to regain lost confidence in its economic prospects.

*This blog is based on the comprehensive chapter on the external environment in IPS’ ‘Sri-Lanka: State of the Economy 2023’ report.

Link to original blog: https://www.ips.lk/talkingeconomics/2023/10/24/between-homefront-policies-and-global-developments-sri-lankas-external-sector-outlook/



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‘Mangala Samaraweera – a democrat who opposed racism and corruption’

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Former President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga / Late minister Mangala Samaraweera

‘The late Mangala Samaraweera was a true democrat who staunchly opposed racism in all its forms. He was also against corruption. He was a unique person, an achiever, an artist, a creative person, well-read and practical-minded, former President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga said. She believes that if Mangala Samaraweera (MS) lived, Sri Lanka would have been changed entirely for the better.

The former President was speaking at a special Mangala Samaraweera commemorative event held at the auditorium of the Bandaranaike Centre for International Studies (BCIS), Colombo on April 22nd, which featured the donation of Minister Samaraweera’s wide-ranging and abundant private collection of books to several Sri Lankan libraries, including that at the BCIS and the Colombo Public Library.

The programme was termed, ‘Reading with Mangala: Insights into his Personal Library and its Onward Gifting to His Fellow Sri Lankans.’ The event marked MS’ 69th birthday.

The book donation was facilitated by the family of the late minister which coordinated closely with the BCIS to make the event a success. Besides former President Kumaratunga, the event was graced by the BCIS Council of Management, public personalities, associates and colleagues of the former minister, BCIS staffers, students and well-wishers.

At the outset of the commemoration, MS was introduced eloquently and at some length to the audience by the late minister’s niece, Chanchala. MS came across to us, basically, as a multi-talented, well-read, colourful and knowledgeable personality. A resourceful person who could change things for the better.

In a panel discussion featuring many dignitaries on Mangala the person and the public figure, former President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga mentioned the following as well: ‘Mangala had a vision for the country as a public figure and conceptualized policies in accordance with it. Among other things, he persuaded the entire SLFP to resolve the ethnic issue by political means.

‘In a survey done by a foreign company it was revealed initially that only 23 percent of the country’s Sinhala community supported a political solution to the ethnic conflict. I asked Mangala to tell me how our ideas could be taken to the public. He launched work on this project with 19 ministers. One positive result from these deliberations was the ‘Sudu Nelum Movement’ which Mangala backed to the hilt.

‘Subsequently, the message of a negotiated solution was taken to the country through innovative means, like Street Theatre and the ‘Thawalama’ campaign. Mangala gave of his best to these projects. Subsequently, in a second survey done it was disclosed that 68 per cent of the people accepted a political solution. Thus, did Mangala’s positive approach pay off. He stuck to his principles and never betrayed them.’

By Lynn Ockersz

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Japan ready to take on fresh loan projects for Sri Lanka – Ambassador Isomata

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Ambassador Akio Isomata (first from right) at the forum

Japan is ready to undertake fresh loan projects for Sri Lanka since the country has completed its debt restructuring process, Japanese ambassador to Sri Lanka Akio Isomata said.

“Japan is ready to consider taking on such commitments if there is a request from the Sri Lankan end but the undertaking of such projects depends on Sri Lanka’s debt servicing ability, ambassador Isomata added.

The ambassador made these remarks in response to a query raised during a round table discussion organised by the Pathfinder Foundation recently at the Taj Samudra’s Colombo Club. The theme of the event was, “Japan’s response to the US reciprocal tariffs and Japan- Sri Lanka relations in a turbulent world”. The forum was presided over by Pathfinder Foundation chairman ambassador Bernard Goonetilleke.

The ambassador also said that Japan was a victim of corruption in Sri Lanka and expressed optimism that the government would tackle the issue.

“Earlier, there were reports about some Japanese companies facing issues in Sri Lanka in securing investments. Japanese companies strictly observe compliance obligations and therefore never offer bribes or kickbacks, ambassador Isomata explained. Ambassador Isomata said that he attended the function to mark the launch of the ‘National Anti -Corruption Action Plan’ and listened to President Anura Kumara Dissanayake speaking of efforts to address the issue. The ambassador emphasized the need to implement the plan.

Responding to the President’s remarks that politicians belonging to his National People’s Power (NPP) are not involved in any form of corruption, the ambassador said it is equally important to address the same involving Sri Lankan bureaucrats.

Commenting on Japan- Sri Lanka bilateral relations, Isomata said Sri Lanka is a very important partner for Japan in many ways.” As Sri Lanka’s economy is in the process of getting back on track with efforts underway to implement the IMF agreement, along with the debt restructuring agreement, I don’t think Japanese companies will come immediately to make new investments at this stage. But as the Sri Lankan economy goes back on track in a stable manner, I think we can cultivate the interest of Japanese investors to take a closer look at opportunities in Sri Lanka for further investment. We need cooperation with Sri Lankan people, he said.

The ambassador added: “We are seeing increasing numbers of young Sri Lankans going to Japan for employment in Japanese companies. There are two kinds of programmes for inviting young foreign workers into Japan right now.

“One is called the TITP -Technical Intern Training Programme. The second one, recently started, is SSW -Specified Skilled Worker Programme. Under these two programmes, an increasing number of Sri Lankan youngsters are going to Japan right now. We have opened up eight industrial sectors for Sri Lankan workers, starting with caregiving, hotel accommodation, food industry, agriculture, construction and most recently, the transportation sector, like bus driving and truck driving. This will strengthen Japan’s labour market. We need a young labour force because Japan is facing the problem of an ageing society.”

By Hiran H Senewiratne

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SLT-MOBITEL surges ahead with robust Q1 2025 profit growth

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Janaka Abeysinghe, Chief Executive Officer SLT Group

The SLT Group has reported a Profit After Tax (PAT) of Rs. 2,001 million for the first quarter ended March 31, 2025, a surge from Rs. 156 million in Q1 2024, reflecting effective financial management and improved operational efficiency.

SLT Group demonstrated strong performance for the first quarter of 2025, with revenue increasing 3.4% to Rs. 27,851 million. The growth was primarily driven by Mobitel’s contribution of increased revenues while SLT PLC revenue remained stable.

The Group’s cost optimization initiatives continued to yield positive results, with operating expenses decreasing 2.9% amount to Rs. 710 million compared to the same period last year. The reduction, combined with revenue growth, led to a 13% increase in EBITDA to Rs. 10,443 million.

At company level, SLT PLC reported a marginal 0.7% increase in revenue of Rs. 117 million compared to Q1 2024, primarily driven by growth in enterprise, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and broadband streams.

SLT PLC also achieved significant cost declines, with operating expenses decreasing 5.2% amount to Rs. 838 million Year-on-Year (YoY). Notably, electricity expenses fell 38.3% following tariff reductions in March and July 2024. Vehicle hiring and fuel costs also decreased 22.7%, and repair and maintenance expenses curtailed by 12.5%.

SLT PLC specifically demonstrated impressive profit growth, with PAT increasing by 369.9% to Rs. 1,344 million compared to Rs. 286 million in Q1 2024. The notable performance was supported by a 380% surge in Profit Before Tax (PBT) to Rs. 1,920 million and a 60.3% increase in Operating Profit to Rs. 2,538 million.

Mobitel demonstrated strong financial performance in the first quarter of 2025, reporting notable revenue growth supported by the growth of data services. Total revenue reached Rs. 11.8 billion, reflecting the company’s success in capitalizing on demand for digital connectivity. Enhanced top-line performance, combined with effective cost reduction initiatives, led to a significant improvement in profitability.

EBITDA increased by 28.5%, resulting in a healthy EBITDA margin of 30%. Operating profit (EBIT) also recorded a marked improvement by 392%, with a 7% EBIT margin. PBT saw considerable growth, and the company successfully turned around its financial position, moving from a net loss in the first quarter of 2024 to a net profit of Rs. 477 million in the same period of 2025.

Reaffirming its commitment to delivering superior network experiences and the widest coverage across the island, SLT-MOBITEL Mobile was recognized as the country’s fastest 4G network for 2024 by Ookla®, the global leader in internet testing and analysis at Mobile World Congress Barcelona, held in March 2025.

Leveraging strong Q1 results as a foundation for 2025 growth, the SLT Group aims to continue the ongoing digital transformation journey delivering innovative solutions and expanding services to meet customer needs. Through operational efficiency and digital advancement, investing in advanced technologies to strengthen market position, the Group remains committed to supporting Sri Lanka’s digital economy and creating value for all stakeholders.

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