Business
Has Sri Lanka’s crisis-driven import controls incentivised import substitution?
By Dr Asanka Wijesinghe and Nilupulee Rathnayake
In response to the economic crisis, Sri Lanka implemented import controls that expanded significantly by the end of 2022, accounting for approximately 30% of the country’s total import value (Figure 1). The controls affected various categories, including consumption goods (46%), intermediate goods (31%), and capital goods (24%). As Sri Lanka gradually eases these controls, questions arise about the necessity of this strategy and its impact on economic growth.
Was implementing import controls a necessary strategy or the easiest option available to the government?
Were import controls applied optimally to limit damaging effects on growth?
Did they distort incentives, thereby promoting domestic production of substitutable products?
To shed light on these concerns, a comprehensive analysis was conducted using a unique dataset comprising eight waves of import controls. These controls encompassed quantitative and price restrictions at a disaggregated product level using a range of Gazette notifications issued between April 2020 to September 2022.
Were Import Controls Necessary? Unravelling the Policy Objectives
The objective behind the successive rounds of controls remains unclear, with the government declaring different goals at different times. These ranged from reducing foreign currency outflows to promoting domestic production as import substitutes. As such, assessing their longer-term impacts in distorting the incentive structures is crucial. Interestingly, implementing import controls may have inadvertently encouraged import substitution, even without a protectionist intent. The complexity of the measures employed, including credit-based requirements, import licenses, suspensions, and bans, highlights the intricacies of controlling imports.
Several hypotheses prevail in determining the government’s import control preferences.
Sri Lanka’s heavy reliance on imported intermediate and capital goods for domestic consumption and export-oriented production means that these are more likely to be exempted from minimising adverse impacts on domestic production.
The large agricultural labour force has significant electoral importance, and to gain political support, the government may seize the opportunity to protect domestic food production.
If import substitution is the goal, the government will prioritise less complex products, which are easily substitutable given resource endowments and technical know-how. Thus, food items, for instance, are more likely to face import controls over highly complex products. It is worth noting that if subsequent rounds of import controls consistently include less complex food products without exemptions, it could indicate an underlying incentive structure that promotes import substitution.
Even without a protectionist motive, the import control design could inadvertently incentivise import substitution.
Our analysis revealed that the government’s import control policy preference favoured less complex products, consumer goods, and food items. This unintentionally created an incentive structure for import substitution, even without a protectionist intent. Persistent import controls on food products and low-tech manufacturing products like consumer electronics inflate domestic prices and create opportunities for higher profit margins. As these products are within the set of products that are easily substitutable for a country like Sri Lanka, which has a comparative advantage in low-tech manufacturing and a significant labour force in agriculture, import substitution might happen even without a policy intent.
The quantitative analysis identified eight waves of import controls, which tightened over time and increased in coverage. The government’s targeting of food products, consumption goods, and less complex items was not always successful, particularly in the later waves of import controls. This can be attributed to a shrinking choice set available as control measures progressed. In some import control waves, the government extended import controls to encompass more intermediate and capital goods.
The process of import substitution typically follows a sequential pattern, starting with substituting easily replaceable products before moving on to more complex ones. Therefore, irrespective of the policy objective, the distortions introduced to the incentive structure align with observations from import substitution scenarios seen in countries like Sri Lanka.
Recommendations for Prioritising Import Control Revisions
As Sri Lanka gradually eases the import controls implemented during the economic crisis, it becomes crucial to prioritise the revision process. The deciding factors may be influenced by lobbying from industries reliant on restricted imports and feedback from industry and consumers. Our analysis suggests that revisions appear to prioritise intermediate and exempted food products, reflecting a policy preference for exempting intermediate imports .
To foster innovation and enable participation in global value chains, it is economically sensible to phase out import controls on intermediate goods. However, revisions should also target consumption goods, including food. Import controls inflate domestic prices, leading to the production of less complex consumer goods and food items for domestic consumption. This diverts resources away from export industries, impeding the country’s growth in the vital export sector.
To be Continued
Govt. in ‘Consideration Mode’ over next IMF programme:
By Sanath Nanayakkare
President Anura Kumara Dissanayake revealed that the government remains in “consideration mode” regarding whether Sri Lanka will enter into a follow-up Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) once the active facility concludes in March 2027.
Participating in an engaging Fireside Chat at the inauguration of the Sri Lanka Economic and Investment Summit 2026, organised by the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce at the Shangri-La Colombo on October 12, the President emphasised that any future engagement with the IMF must afford adequate policy space for his administration to execute its own sovereign economic vision.
The session, moderated by Bingumal Thewarathanthri, Vice Chairperson of the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce and CEO of Standard Chartered Bank Sri Lanka, saw the Head of State outline a comprehensive roadmap spanning macro-fiscal discipline, port infrastructure expansion, energy sector restructuring, fuel pricing dynamics, and technology training.
Addressing a packed hall of top-tier business leaders, diplomats, and international investors, President Dissanayake noted that while the current IMF arrangement has proceeded without impeding the government’s core economic strategy, a prospective post-March program will undergo rigorous evaluation.
“Our foreign reserve levels are satisfactory for paying our way through the world. However, there is global uncertainty amid the current geopolitical situation. No indicators can say when the war will end or what weather-related disasters could happen,” the President remarked, referencing external vulnerabilities such as Middle Eastern tensions and local climate disruptions like Cyclone Ditwah.
He stressed that while macro-fiscal parameters – including progressive revenue targets and debt-ceiling management – remain fundamental to national stability, the government is acutely conscious of the tax burdens and social costs borne by citizens. Therefore, any future framework proposed by the IMF will be examined through the lens of domestic policy autonomy and social protection.
Turning to critical national assets, President Dissanayake announced bold restructuring plans for the Port of Colombo aimed at elevating Sri Lanka’s position as a dominant regional maritime hub.
East Container Terminal (ECT): The government intends to grant management and operating rights of the ECT to a private sector partner while retaining 100% state ownership. Operating under the Sri Lanka Ports Authority (SLPA), the terminal currently handles approximately 500,000 TEUs against a potential capacity of 3.2 million TEUs. Five to six major global shipping lines have already expressed preliminary interest.
West Container Terminal II (WCT II): A funding requirement of approximately $1.4 billion for breakwater infrastructure is being sought from multilateral development institutions. Preliminary design work, assisted by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), is slated for completion by April 2027, adding another 3.2 million TEUs in annual throughput capacity upon full buildout.
Logistics Hub & Custom Clearance: The SLPA will call fresh tenders for a dedicated logistics center within the Port of Colombo following the resolution of land disputes. Additionally, Cabinet approval has been granted for a Public-Private Partnership (PPP) to establish a 150-container examination facility in Kerawalapitiya to streamline Customs clearance.
Addressing energy security and domestic distribution, the President indicated that existing petroleum agreements with private market participants – including Lanka IOC and Sinopec – would undergo formal review involving the Attorney General.
Expressing concern over distribution bottlenecks in outstation areas where private outlets dominate, President Dissanayake called on private players to balance profit margins with social responsibility during times of price volatility. To guarantee uninterrupted national supply, the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) plans to add 75 new filling stations across the island.
Furthermore, to enhance maritime competitiveness, the government is considering lowering the 2.5% tax/levy on bunkering services in Budget 2027 and exploring CPC-private partnerships for bunker fuel storage expansion at the JCT Oil Bank.
In renewable energy, the government will open four major grid transmission lines for private-sector participation and transition away from fixed feed-in tariffs set by the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) toward competitive bidding to drive down generation costs. Floating solar projects, such as the Ibbankatuwa model, will be prioritised to overcome land availability constraints.
In a bid to address structural workforce shortages in high-tech sectors, the President revealed that Sri Lanka will sign an agreement with Singapore next week to establish a specialized training institute on Wijerama Mawatha in Colombo. The center will focus on rapidly expanding local capacity in Information Communications Technology (ICT) and Artificial Intelligence (AI).
He also highlighted plans to restructure public sector remuneration for highly skilled professionals and proposed an outcome-based procurement model for international promotional campaigns, such as global tourism marketing, where agencies are compensated based on verified growth in tourist arrivals.
By Hiran H. Senewiratne
‘Sri Lanka is a top market in the South Asian region for quality powder coatings, Franck Derouen, Business Director, Industrial MEA – West & Central Asia, Axalta Coating Systems (ME) LLC, said.
‘We see significant long-term potential for powder coatings in Sri Lanka and look forward to working closely with Richardson Holdings to offer Axalta’s technology, expertise and global standards for all customers, Derouen said at a launch of the products in Sri Lanka together with Richardson Holdings recently. The event was held at the ITC Ratnadipa, Colombo.
Derouen added: ‘More than a brand transition, this appointment comes as project volumes and material demand continue to rise across Sri Lanka’s construction and property development sectors, giving developers and specifiers greater access to premium performance powder coatings at a time of renewed industry activity.
‘For architects, engineers, extruders and applicators, Axalta’s powder coatings combine UV resistance, gloss retention and corrosion protection with the technical performance expected for long-term architectural projects.’
Group Managing Director, Richardson Holdings, Nazri Nizar said, ‘A strong global brand might open the door. However long-term customer trust is built locally through dedicated support and reliable delivery. The true measure of a distributor lies in the service, care, and operational execution which follows after the product arrives.
‘Combining Axalta’s 150 years of global coating expertise with Richardson’s two decades of deep local relationships and technical know-how, we are bringing customers the best of both worlds.
‘Bridging global standards with local expertise, Richardson Projects will serve as Axalta’s trusted local powder coatings partner, combining global technology with two decades of on-the-ground experience serving Sri Lanka’s construction ecosystem.’
Pradeep Kahawalage, Chief Executive Officer, Richardson Projects, said, ‘After two decades building trust in Sri Lanka’s powder coatings industry, this marks an important new chapter for Richardson. Axalta gives us a global technology partner that matches the standards we have already built our reputation on. We are excited to bring that expertise to Sri Lanka’s construction and aluminium industries in the years ahead.
‘With a focus on sustainability, technical excellence and long-term partnership, Richardson looks forward to supporting architects, developers, fabricators and applicators throughout Sri Lanka with Axalta powder coating as the industry continues to grow.’
By Steve A. Morrell
Headquartered in Norway, Sri Lanka’s 99x office is emerging as a global leader in digital product engineering and tech solutions.
The above products and their development are prioritized in even local university level digital technology centered courses of study. Priority is increasingly attached to them in the context of career development.
Shehani Seneviratne, Chief Operating Officer of 99x Product Engineering, while reiterating the importance of these subject areas at a recent event stressed their continued centrality in degree level courses of study.
The event brought together members of the 99x leadership team including Odd-Sverre Østlie, Group CEO of 99x, Kalana Wijesekara, Chief Developer Experience Officer, Shehani Seneviratne, Chief Operating Officer, 99x Product Engineering, and Chrishan de Mel, ChiefMarketing and Corporate Affairs Officer of 99x Product Engineering.
Opening the event, Chrishan de Mel shared how 99x’s Agent Control Plane xians.ai was awarded the “Best Agentic AI Solution” at the recently concluded National AI Awards. The platform was also awarded national recognition at the SLASSCOM National Ingenuity Awards as the “Best Innovation in Internal Processes, Technology or Framework” category. Earlier this year, the 99x AI-first initiatives won the overall gold award at the Best Management Practices awards.
As 99x expands its use of AI tools and agents across engineering, support and other functions, the company recognised the need for greater visibility into how these AI-assisted workflows perform. As AI continues to reshape traditional engineering workflows, it also creates new opportunities to improve productivity, quality and speed. This need led to the development of AI Hub, 99x’s new platform for observing and measuring AI assisted workflows.
Speaking at the AI Hub launch, Kalana Wijesekere said, AI adoption is happening at a remarkable pace but adopting more tools does not automatically mean achieving better outcomes. AI Hub gives teams the visibility to understand what is happening within their AI assisted workflows and enables them to make informed decisions about how these workflows should evolve.
Sharing an update on the 99x group’s global journey and market outlook, Odd-Sverre Østlie highlighted the company’s continued expansion across Europe, the Americas and Asia, alongside growing demand from customers seeking to integrate AI into their products and operations. He stated, ‘AI is fundamentally changing the expectations our customers have from their technology partners. They want to move faster, experiment more quickly and increasingly understand how AI can create measurable business value. Our ambition is to be a long-term engineering partner that can help customers navigate this transformation. The launch of AI hub advances 99x’s AI-first strategy moving beyond the adoption of AI tools.’
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