Features
Susil in Politics: Some inside stories

Remarkable astrological predictions
by Sumi Moonesinghe narrated to Savithri Rodrigo
Having built up one of the biggest businesses in the country from scratch with the help of Maha and Killi (Maharaja), and of course Susil, and then selling it for a substantial price sealed the end of a very eventful chapter for me. Susil was my rock, always there to guide and advise me and to comfort me when things went wrong. But his strong political ambitions were not far from the surface and it was just a matter of time before we all became enmeshed in politics.
I was introduced to politics by Susil, whose wide network of political friends and alliances also meant that we were always engaged in long political discussions. He was a great guru and I a good student. Susil absorbed politics into his very being. From our early days in Singapore, I would listen, discuss and debate politics with him. I remember how he studied the successful transformation of Singapore under the leadership of Lee Kuan Yew incessantly, while we were in that country and even after, very enamoured with Lee’s brand of politics.
Lee was Prime Minister of Singapore for 31 years and his political pragmatism was hailed globally. He was credited with transforming Singapore from a third world to a first world country but was an outspoken critic of the western ideal of democracy. Susil’s leftist ideas resonated well with Lee’s ideology but I have always been a great believer that a good left and right balance is the key to good governance. Eventually, Susil began thinking on these lines and I like to think it was I who converted him!
As the 1977 elections drew near, Susil, who had worked hard for the SLFP government in earlier years, was fully involved with the opposition UNP. Having seen Mrs. Bandaranaike’s socialist policies reduce the country to depths unimaginable, there was renewed vigour to work towards electing a more pragmatic, open economy-oriented UNP government. Prior to the elections therefore, our home became ‘election central’. Susil was working closely with the UNP top guns J R Jayewardene, Ranasinghe Premadasa, Lalith Athulathmudali and Gamini Dissanayake, who all became close friends and would end up at our home, discussing issues and strategies well into the night.
Often there were times when J R would invite us for coffee to his home at Ward Place for some nocturnal discussions. He was 70 years old and had amassed a wealth of political experience and knowledge. Wickrama Weerasooria, who would eventually become Anarkali’s father-in-law, and Gamini Dissanayake would most often be at these little informal chats, and quite a young Ranil Wickremesinghe too.
It was at our home over dinner one day that I remember J R casually mentioning he would be removing Mrs. Bandaranaike’s civic rights. We were utterly and truly shocked. This was unheard of and could be construed as vengeful and manipulative. This would also mean Mrs. Bandaranaike, who would be the Leader of the Opposition if J R won, would be expelled from parliament. This wouldn’t augur well for Sri Lanka’s democracy and I remember each of us at the table, Gamini, Susil and I, vociferously voicing our opposition to the removal of her civic rights. Elina, J R’s wife who was also at the dinner, looked at J R very sternly and said, “Dicky, don’t ever do that!”
But J R wouldn’t listen and went ahead. It was not just Mrs. Bandaranaike who lost her civic rights. He extended that diktat to two of her most powerful acolytes as well –former Permanent Secretary to the Ministry of Justice Nihal Jayawickrama and former Cabinet Minister Felix Dias Bandaranaike who were both eminent lawyers. J R impounded their passports and appointed a Special Presidential Commission of Inquiry to investigate alleged abuse and/or misuse of power by the Bandaranaike Government.
The proceedings and findings seemed one-sided and almost vindictive, and with the imposition of civic disabilities, Sirimavo, Nihal and Felix were prohibited from seeking election to parliament, holding any public office or engaging in any political work including making political speeches. They were thus banned from politics for a total of seven years. This was so wrong and went against the fundamental principles of democracy. It is the voters who decide on their elected officials, and permanent secretaries like Nihal, carry out orders given by the elected minister.
It was in 1974, a few years prior to the 1977 elections that I met Gamini Dissanayake, while Mrs. Bandaranaike was yet in power and the country was going through some upheavals. Susil and I had friends in both major political parties – there was Sivali Ratwatte and Upali Wijewardene who strongly supported Mrs. B (as she was called), and J R, Gamini, Lalith and Premadasa who were movers and shakers in the UNP.
Mrs. B had already extended her term by two years and was becoming quite dictatorial. Mrs. B’s son Anura was also among our circle of friends, but he remained non-partisan, although J R was constantly enticing Anura to cross over to the UNP. During the Kalawewa by-election in 1974, J R and Premadasa wanted Anura to get into Parliament. Multiple meetings were held at our home and J R assured Anura that the UNP would not put forward a candidate if Anura contested.
However, the procedure wasn’t that simple. First, the SLFP, which was Anura’s mother’s party, had to nominate Anura as their candidate. Given the relationship, we figured this would be merely procedure; after all, Anura was of Bandaranaike lineage and the Prime Minister’s son. When the SLFP nomination committee sat to make a decision, we assembled at Anuruddha Ratwatte’s home near the Army Headquarters waiting for the results from the nomination board.
But, to our complete surprise, the nomination committee selected an unknown entity to represent the SLFP at the by-elections. The Committee comprised S W R D Bandaranaike’s stalwarts. It was clear that Mrs. B had made it known to them that Anura may become J R’s pawn if he won the election. Anura was inconsolable when he heard the news, quite unable to comprehend being let down by his own mother so publicly.
No sooner had the news been communicated, Sivali’s wife Cuckoo promptly took Anura and his sister Chandrika’s horoscopes and went to visit Mr. Arulpragasam, the astrologer who lived at Station Road, Nugegoda. Having studied the horoscopes for a few minutes, Mr. Arulpragasam looked at Anura’s horoscope and said, “This one will never become anything more than a minister,” but pointed to Chandrika’s and said, “Now, this one will go right to the top!” His words were prophetic. While Anura did eventually get into Parliament but only as Speaker of the House, twenty years after the prediction in 1994, Chandrika was sworn in as Sri Lanka’s fifth President.
Susil was a pragmatist and being a voracious reader, a fount of information and knowledge. This helped him immensely in carving out a successful political career which was well matched with his language capabilities and I should say, handsome looks too. He was elected Chief Minister of the Western Province in 1988, a post he held until 1993. He was Leader of the Opposition of the Provincial Council in 1994, and then went on to become a Member of Parliament for the Colombo District from 2000 to 2002.
Sri Lanka was continuing to grapple with the murderous deeds of the LTTE. Realizing the futility of reasoning with a terrorist organisation, J R decided to enlist the help of the Indian government to quell the LTTE. It was widely believed that Tamil Nadu was quite a hotbed for LTTE supporters and J R needed to get the support of the Indian government to help regain peace in the country. Thus began the discussions for the Indo-Sri Lanka Peace Accord which was signed on July 29. 1987, between Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and J R, enabling the 13th Amendment to Sri Lanka’s Constitution.
The Amendment included the devolution of power to the provinces, a withdrawal of troops and the LTTE to surrender arms. India sent in a Peace Keeping Force to help literally, with keeping the peace. However, the LTTE had not been involved in the talks and before long, the uneasy truce flared into active confrontation. In retaliation, Rajiv Gandhi would eventually be assassinated by a female LTTE suicide bomber, four years after the signing of that accord.
In fact, J R handed me the 13,h Amendment and asked me to read it prior to it being passed. This Amendment was a result of the 1987 Indo-Sri Lanka Accord which was brokered by Rajiv Gandhi, with the diktat for full devolution of power to north and east. J R decided to expand the devolution of power to all nine provinces, creating the provincial councils in Sri Lanka. As a result, parliamentarians’ work was reduced drastically, which meant that the number of MPs could easily be reduced to no more than 100.
When I pointed out this fact to him, he replied, “I agree, but I have to keep everybody happy.” Also the provincial council structure introduced a whole new type of politician and with each successive government, “keeping everyone happy,” became the norm. The trend of large cabinets of useless people crept in. We now have a 225-member Parliament.
Gamini, who played a pivotal role in the Indo-Lanka Peace Accord had become very powerful, with the Indians holding him in high esteem due to the role he played. One of the perks of this recognition was being given the full ‘red carpet’ treatment to see Indian guru Satya Sai Baba, who had built up an impressive following of millions around the world. These followers would throng his residence in Puttaparthi in Andra Pradesh in the hope of getting an audience with the great teacher. So when Gamini was invited to see Baba, we joined him on that trip and when we sat in the same room as Baba, it was quite otherworldly.
Baba’s ‘acts of divinity’ are argued by some to be a sleight of hand, but nevertheless they were impressive. He would magically bring out gifts, presenting various items to those he deemed special. Susil was summoned as well and given a photograph. Tiny, Wickrama’s son was asked to join Baba in another room and came out a few minutes later, smiling. But he refused to tell us anything at the time. Many years later, Tiny divulged that Baba said, “Your future wife is in this room with you!” Now I’m not sure if Tiny concocted that story —that’s what he says Baba told him. Nevertheless as a result of this trip, Gamini’s family and ours are intertwined for life. Rohini, who is Gamini’s eldest sister is Tiny’s mother.
During this period, Susil was Chief Minister of the Western Province and Sri Lanka was battling a war on two fronts —the LTTE and the JVP — Tamil Tiger rebels in the north and the Marxist student rebels in the south. At the height of the JVP insurrection in 1988, parliamentary elections were announced and Susil began campaigning from the Colombo District for the Avissawella seat. Our home was filled with party supporters and security detail because the violence in the country was unrelenting. Not a day went by without an innocent person being senselessly and viciously killed by the JVP, or a bomb or assassination by the LTTE. The JVP’s quest was to kill Government officials or those who were supportive of the Government in order to bring the Government to its knees. But none deserved to die. These were all people who were simply doing their job.
As a result, Susil’s life was also under threat which meant we had security details — men walking around with guns — in our house 24×7. I hated it. This exacerbated the fact that we were living in fear and that is when we decided to move the girls to Singapore as they were missing out on school as well. Schools in Colombo had been shut down due to the continuing violence.
With Susil campaigning with gusto, our house once again turned into Grand Central Station, with endless cups of tea, lunches and dinners being served to hundreds of supporters and party activists. I was juggling multiple roles as my business too was at its peak; thank goodness for my domestic staff who kept the wheels turning in my home very efficiently.
Just as Susil had given me unstinted support in building up my business, I reciprocated when it came to his political work. I dived straight into his campaign, accompanying him to his rallies, helping with his speeches and giving him as much support as I could. I walked around the villages he went to, chatting with the people, finding out about their lives and families.
On one occasion, I struck up a conversation with a rubber tapper, a woman whose work day began at dawn. This meant her daughter had to wait at home for her return later in the day for a meal. “How can your daughter stay hungry until you get back home?” I asked. Having no inkling of who I was, she said, “I buy Anchor milk. When I give her that, the child is not hungry and doesn’t cry until I return. I have tried other types of milk powder but they don’t work the same way.”
On hearing this, when I got back to office I telephoned NZDB and shared the information I heard from the rubber tapper. “How can Anchor milk keep her daughter from hunger, when other milks don’t?” Their reply was, “Most milk powder in your market has 26% fat. But Anchor has 28.5% fat. So when the fat content is higher, it is richer and more filling.” Realising the power of our differentiation, I called my Anchor A team and gave them this titbit of information. The result was this slogan: “All we do is remove the water. All you do is add the water.”
Of all Sri Lanka’s leaders I’ve engaged with, it was President Ranasinghe Premadasa who was my hero. He never forgot what it was like to be poor and would always judge a person on the depth of that knowledge. If any consultant came to him with a theory, the first questions he would ask were, “Have you walked barefoot? Have you ever slept on the ground? Have you ever gone without a meal? If you haven’t done any of those things, you can’t work for me.” His method of management was to let the bureaucracy run the country while he envisioned the future. “Ministers should not be involved in day-to-day operations,” was his wise counsel. He was a man of action and a son of the soil.
One of the projects on which I worked closely with him was his Gam Udawa (village reawakening) housing development project, which he launched in 1983 when the United Nations declared 1987 as the International Year of Shelter for the Homeless. He gave himself four years – from 1983 to 1987 –to meet his target of constructing 100,000 houses for the poor. This was an ambitious undertaking but Premadasa was never deterred by the expanse of his vision.
This vision for giving shelter to the poor went beyond simply giving houses. He added a participatory approach, increasing dynamism and vigour to village development with the people deciding on the size and shape of their abodes and contributing material and labour when feasible, with the government providing land and financial assistance. He believed strongly in the Maslow theory of the hierarchy of needs, and felt that fundamental needs had to be met for human beings to get to the next rung. His switched to a state-aided housing development philosophy – ‘of the people, for the people, by the people’ – which was an instant success.
His beginnings were in poverty and he understood the poor man and the way their minds worked. And he was a problem solver. When he first made his declaration of constructing the 100,000 houses, his fellow ministers scoffed at the idea and were reluctant to give him support. In fact, Ronnie de Mel, who was Finance Minister at the time, didn’t allocate money from the budget for the housing programme. Undeterred, Premadasa launched the Sevana Lottery – his solution to giving poor people a roof over their heads. The income from the lottery would fund his project.
Susil and I were very supportive of President Premadasa’s projects because these appealed to our ‘giving’ conscience, strengthening the belief that the giving had to be sustainable and have the buy-in of the recipient. We worked very closely with him, never missing his Gam Udawa launches and even taking J R with us in some instances.
On April 30, 1993 having attended a meeting, Susil and President Premadasa were driving back in the same car. Premadasa turned to Susil and asked, “Susil, are you afraid to die right now?” Susil said, “No,” although he thought it was a rather strange question. It almost seemed as if the President had a premonition of what was to come. That was the last conversation Susil had with him.
The next morning – May Day 1993 – my astrologer, who was in Melbourne, made a desperate telephone call to me asking me to not allow Susil to leave the house. I knew Susil was joining President Premadasa at the May Day Rally and while not telling him about what the astrologer said, I tried my best to make excuses and finally pleaded with him not to leave home.
I kept delaying his departure but he wasn’t listening to my pleas. To placate me he said, “I’ll go to the meeting and be back soon.” He left the house around 12.45 pm and was near the Eye Hospital in Borella when he was informed about the blast which killed President Premadasa. A suicide bomber, who was later identified as an LTTE suicide cadre named Babu had detonated the bomb, killing the President, 17 others and himself. It was that call from my astrologer that saved Susil’s life that day.
Sometime earlier, Premadasa had made D B Wijetunge his Prime Minister. This was quite shocking as it was very apparent that he was side-lining the party strongmen Lalith Athulathmudali and Gamini Dissanayake. Hence, when Premadasa was killed, it was D B Wijetunge who was sworn in as President. Ranil Wickremesinghe was appointed Prime Minister.
The wheels of politics continued to turn in this country despite bombs and assassinations. When Gamini became the presidential candidate for the UNP in the 1994 election, I predicted he wouldn’t win. The country had gone through 17 years of UNP rule and was ripe for change. Nevertheless, both Susil and I put our heart and soul into Gamini’s campaign. Susil was at every single one of Gamini’s campaign rallies.
One day, I wanted Susil to return early from one of those rallies as I had a function to attend. He acquiesced, went to the meeting, delivered his speech and returned home, a little before Gamini arrived at the meeting. Normally, Susil would greet Gamini and stay on with him until Gamini left the meeting.
Just as Gamini got to the rally at Thotalanga, he telephoned our home and asked me where Susil was. I explained that Susil had delivered his speech and since I had to go out, he was on his way home.
A short while later, the phone rang again. I don’t remember who was on the other end but I remember going limp. “A bomb has gone off and Gamini is in hospital.” A suicide bomber had detonated herself at the meeting in retaliation for Gamini’s involvement in the bombing of the Jaffna Library. Susil had just returned and we rushed to the hospital. Not long after, Gamini was pronounced dead.
Meanwhile, Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga had ousted the UNP in the Provincial Council Elections and become Chief Minister of the Western Province. From then on, her stars were lined up and she became unstoppable. She would eventually become Prime Minister and then the first female President of Sri Lanka, just as Mr. Arulpragasam had predicted two decades ago.
Our dear friends – Lalith Athulathmudali in April 1993, Ranasinghe Premadasa in May 1993 and Gamini Dissanayake in October 1994 – were all dead, just one-and-a-half years of each other. We had by now lost all those leaders who were capable of taking the country forward – either the JVP or the LTTE had killed them. When Gamini died, I felt like life couldn’t get any worse. But then, I told myself that the cycle of life must go on. We who survive do so for some purpose.
Features
Banking Rules fail the elderly and informal sector

Yesterday, I received a phone call from a well-known private bank. A polite female voice on the line asked whether I was interested in obtaining a housing loan. Knowing how things typically work in the Sri Lankan banking system, I decided not to waste her time—or mine. So, I responded candidly: “I’m over 60. Are you still interested in offering your service to me?”
As expected, she politely replied, “No sir, we offer housing loans only to customers below the age of 60.”
Now, let’s think about this for a moment. If you’re 59 years old, does that mean the bank will give you a housing loan with just a one-year repayment period? Apparently, yes. What kind of absurd banking logic is this? Such rigid age cut-offs do not reflect risk management, but sheer bureaucratic laziness.
Banks and other financial institutions follow rules set by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. One of the main reasons for these rules is to protect the money that people deposit. Figure 1 shows one of those orders to regulate home loans provided by banks.
Employees are to provide banks with confirmation from their respective employer regarding the retirement date/age, as applicable. This requirement introduces administrative friction for the borrower and places unnecessary dependence on employer documentation. Many private sector employers do not maintain strict retirement policies, and contract-based employment has become common. Mandating employer confirmation becomes especially problematic in such cases.
Eligibility Criteria for Housing Loans Under the Terms of This Order (Effective from 10 December 2020) specify the following individuals are eligible to obtain housing loans:
Salaried Employees
* Individuals must be employed in either the public sector (e.g., government departments, state-owned enterprises) or the private sector (e.g., registered companies, private institutions).
Confirmed in Service
* The employment must be confirmed, i.e., the borrower should have completed any probationary period and be in permanent or long-term service. Probationary employees or temporary/contract workers may not be eligible under this order.
This eligibility criterion is narrow and exclusionary, especially in an evolving labour market where:
* Many skilled workers are self-employed, on a contract basis or work in the gig economy would find hard to provide evidence to prove their repayment capacity.
* Job confirmation timelines are often extended due to changing employment practices.
* Real estate investment is increasingly seen as a retirement or family-planning strategy, including among older or self-funded individuals.
While the intent may be to minimise risk for banks by ensuring repayment capacity and employment stability, this overly conservative approach may discriminate against capable, creditworthy individuals, especially older citizens or those outside traditional salaried employment structures.
Tenure of a loan
Figure 2
is an excerpt from the directive issued by CBSL, highlighting the restrictions imposed on the tenure of home loans.
Interestingly, Deshamanya Lalith Kotelawela was one of the few who had the courage—and arguably the foresight—to challenge such irrational norms. While some of his business decisions were controversial, especially the appointment of non-professionals to key financial roles, his thinking on housing loans for older customers was progressive. He proposed that housing loans should be extended even to individuals aged between 60 and 70, with repayment periods of 20 to 30 years. However, he also recommended attaching insurance to these loans—an approach that could benefit his own insurance companies. Naturally, the premiums would be significantly higher for older or higher-risk borrowers.
His reasoning was rooted in both financial logic and social realism: in most Sri Lankan families, children would never allow their parents to lose the family home. In the worst-case scenario, the property—often the most secure asset one can offer—serves as reliable collateral. From a regulatory standpoint, too, this makes sense. According to the Basel framework for banking supervision, residential mortgage loans carry a risk weight of only 50% when calculating capital adequacy. That means such loans are already considered relatively low risk.
So, why are banks clinging to these outdated, “one-size-fits-all” rules that ignore real-world dynamics, demographic shifts, and even their own financial regulations?
These are not just outdated policies—they are stupid banking rules.
Age Discrimination and Financial Exclusion
This condition is fundamentally age-based and introduces structural discrimination against older borrowers. By linking repayment tenure strictly to the borrower’s retirement date, it disproportionately excludes capable individuals nearing retirement—even if they are financially stable, have substantial savings or collateral, or have alternative income sources such as pensions, business income, or rental properties. It presumes that retirement equals financial incapacity, which is not always true in the modern economy. Today, some retired government employees receive monthly pensions exceeding Rs. 100,000.
Ignores Multigenerational and Alternative Repayment Scenarios
This policy does not account for cases where a housing loan is taken for the benefit of the family, and repayment responsibility can logically transfer to a younger family member (such as an adult child or co-borrower). In South Asian cultures especially, joint-family structures and intergenerational financial support are common. Denying long-tenure loans, based on an individual’s remaining years of employment, ignores these sociocultural realities.
Penalises Those Who Start Later
Not everyone begins salaried employment early in life. Some people shift careers, pursue entrepreneurship, or even migrate and return to salaried employment later. Under this rule, a 45-year-old starting a government job would be eligible only for a 15-year loan, regardless of income or asset base. This rigid approach fails to reflect the dynamic nature of modern work and life paths.
Common sense
Banking is often celebrated as a sector driven by logic, data, and risk mitigation. Yet, it is riddled with regulations and practices that are outdated, unempathetic, and at times, downright illogical. A prime example of this is the age discrimination embedded in housing loan policies in many Sri Lankan banks—and indeed in banks across much of the world. The author’s anecdote of receiving a call from a reputed private bank offering a housing loan, only to be told that customers over 60 are ineligible, highlights a major flaw in modern banking systems.
At the heart of this issue lies a fundamental contradiction: while banks are supposed to be institutions that assess individual risk, they often make blanket decisions based on crude demographics such as age. If a person is 59 years old, they are technically eligible for a loan, but only for a tenure of one year, assuming the cut-off age is 60. That assumption, of course, is absurd. Imagine a healthy, wealthy 59-year-old customer being allowed to borrow only on terms designed for a dying man. This “stupid banking rule” lacks nuance and punishes individuals who might otherwise be low-risk borrowers with good collateral.
The Need for Reform
Age should not be the sole determinant of loan eligibility. In an era where people live longer, work well into their seventies, and often own significant assets, banking institutions must adopt more flexible, holistic credit assessment methods. Factors like health, income stability, family support, insurance coverage, and asset base must be considered alongside age.
Additionally, banks should be encouraged—or even regulated—to adopt inclusive lending practices. Policies that facilitate family-based guarantees, property-backed loans with transfer clauses, or reverse mortgage models can ensure that elderly individuals are not financially excluded.
(The writer, a senior Chartered Accountant and professional banker, is Professor at SLIIT, Malabe. He is also the author of the “Doing Social Research and Publishing Results”, a Springer publication (Singapore), and “Samaja Gaveshakaya (in Sinhala). The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the institution he works for. He can be contacted at saliya.a@sliit.lk and www.researcher.com)
Features
Trump tariffs and their effect on world trade and economy with particular

reference to Sri Lanka – Part III
(Continued from yesterday)
Textile Industry Significance
The textile and apparel sector holds outsised importance in Sri Lanka’s economy. It accounts for approximately 40% of the country’s total exports and directly employs around 350,000 workers, predominantly women from rural areas, for whom these jobs represent a crucial pathway out of poverty. When indirect employment in supporting industries is included, the sector supports the livelihoods of over one million Sri Lankans.
The industry’s development was initially facilitated through quotas assigned by the Multi-Fiber Agreement (1974-1994), which allocated specific export volumes to developing countries. When this agreement expired, Sri Lanka managed to maintain its position in global apparel supply chains by focusing on higher-value products, ethical manufacturing practices, and reliability. The country has positioned itself as a producer of quality garments, particularly lingerie, activewear, and swimwear for major global brands.
However, this success has created a structural dependency on continued access to markets in wealthy countries, particularly the United States. As the Secretary General of the Joint Apparel Association Forum, the main representative body for Sri Lanka’s
apparel and textile exporters, bluntly stated following the tariff announcement, “We have no alternate market that we can possibly target instead of the US.”
This dependency is reinforced by the industry’s integration into global supply chains dominated by U.S. brands and retailers. Many Sri Lankan factories operate on thin margins as contract manufacturers for these international companies, with limited ability to quickly pivot to new markets or product categories. The industry has also made significant investments in compliance with U.S. buyer requirements and sustainability certifications, creating path dependencies that make rapid adaptation to new market conditions extremely challenging.
The textile and apparel sector’s significance extends beyond its direct economic contributions. It has been a crucial source of foreign exchange earnings for a country that has consistently run trade deficits and struggled with external debt sustainability. In the ten years leading up to Sri Lanka’s default on external debt (2012-2021), debt repayments amounted to an average of 41% of export earnings, highlighting how vital steady export revenues are to the country’s ability to service its international obligations.
The sector has also played an important role in Sri Lanka’s social development, providing formal employment opportunities for women and contributing to poverty reduction in rural areas. Many of the industry’s workers are the primary breadwinners for their families, and their wages support extended family networks in economically disadvantaged regions of the country.
Given this context, the imposition of a 44% tariff on Sri Lankan goods, with the textile and apparel sector likely to bear the brunt of the impact, represents not merely an economic challenge but a potential social crisis for hundreds of thousands of vulnerable workers and their dependents.
SPECIFIC IMPACT OF TRUMP TARIFFS ON SRI LANKA
The imposition of a 44% tariff on Sri Lankan exports to the United States represents a seismic shock to an economy still recovering from its worst crisis in decades. This section examines the immediate economic consequences, the implications for Sri Lanka’s debt sustainability, and the broader social and political ramifications of this dramatic policy shift.
Immediate Economic Consequences
The most immediate impact of President Trump’s tariffs will be a severe erosion of Sri Lankan goods’ competitiveness in the U.S. market. A 44% price increase effectively prices many Sri Lankan products out of reach for American consumers and businesses, particularly in price-sensitive categories like apparel, where margins are already thin and competition from other producing countries is intense.
Economic analysts project significant declines in export volumes as a result. The PublicFinance.lk think tank estimates that the new tariff rates will lead to a 20% fall in exports to America and an annual loss of approximately $300 million in foreign exchange earnings. Given that Sri Lanka’s total merchandise exports in 2024 were around $13 billion, this represents a substantial blow to the country’s trade balance and economic growth prospects.
The textile and apparel sector will bear the brunt of this impact. Industry representatives have warned that numerous factories may be forced to reduce production or close entirely if they cannot quickly find alternative markets for their products. The Joint Apparel Association Forum has indicated that smaller manufacturers with less diversified customer bases and limited financial reserves will be particularly vulnerable to closure.
These production cutbacks and potential closures would translate directly into job losses. Conservative estimates suggest that tens of thousands of workers in the textile sector could lose their livelihoods if the tariffs remain in place for an extended period. Given that many of these workers are women from rural areas with limited alternative employment opportunities, the social impact of these job losses would be particularly severe.
Beyond the direct effects on textile exports, the tariffs will have ripple effects throughout Sri Lanka’s economy. Supporting industries such as packaging, logistics, and input suppliers will face reduced demand. The loss of foreign exchange earnings will put pressure on the Sri Lankan rupee, potentially leading to currency depreciation that would increase the cost of essential imports including fuel, food, and medicine.
The timing of these tariffs is especially problematic given Sri Lanka’s fragile economic recovery. After experiencing a GDP contraction of 7.8% in 2022 during the height of the economic crisis, the country had only recently returned to modest growth. The IMF had projected GDP growth of 3.1% for 2025, but this forecast now appears overly optimistic in light of the tariff shock. Some economists are already revising their growth projections downward, with some suggesting growth could fall below 2% if the full impact of the tariffs materializes. We must hope they will be proven wrong.
Impact on Sri Lanka’s Debt Sustainability
Perhaps the most concerning aspect of Trump’s tariffs is their potential to undermine Sri Lanka’s hard-won progress on debt sustainability. After defaulting on its external debt in April 2022, the country has undergone a painful restructuring process that concluded only in December 2024. This restructuring was predicated on assumptions about Sri Lanka’s future ability to generate foreign exchange to service its remaining debt obligations.
The IMF’s debt sustainability analysis, which formed the basis for the restructuring agreement, focused almost exclusively on debt as a share of GDP while making insufficient distinction between domestic and foreign debt. This approach has been criticized for ignoring the structural trade deficit and the critical importance of foreign currency earnings to Sri Lanka’s ability to meet its external obligations.
The $300 million annual reduction in export earnings projected as a result of the tariffs directly threatens these calculations. Sri Lanka’s external debt stood at approximately $55 billion in 2023 (about 65% of its GDP), and even after restructuring, debt service payments will consume a significant portion of the country’s foreign exchange earnings in coming years.
In the decade preceding Sri Lanka’s default (2012-2021), debt repayments consumed an average of 41% of export earnings, an unsustainably high ratio that contributed directly to the eventual crisis. The loss of export revenues due to President Trump’s tariffs risks pushing this ratio back toward dangerous levels, potentially setting the stage for renewed debt distress despite the recent restructuring.
This situation highlights a fundamental flaw in the approach taken by international financial institutions to debt sustainability in developing countries. Unlike the treatment afforded to West Germany through the London Debt Agreement of 1953, where future debt repayments were explicitly linked to the country’s trade surplus and capped at 3% of export earnings—Sri Lanka and similar countries are expected to meet rigid repayment schedules regardless of their trade performance or external shocks beyond their control.
The tariffs thus expose the precariousness of Sri Lanka’s economic recovery and the fragility of the international debt architecture that underpins it. Without significant adjustments to account for this external shock, the country could find itself sliding back toward debt distress despite all the sacrifices made by its people during the recent adjustment period.
Social and Political Implications
The economic consequences of Trump’s tariffs will inevitably translate into social and political challenges for Sri Lanka. The country has already experienced significant social strain due to the austerity measures implemented under the IMF program, including tax increases, subsidy reductions, and public sector wage restraint. The additional economic pain caused by export losses and job cuts risks exacerbating social tensions and potentially triggering renewed protests.
The textile industry’s workforce is predominantly female, with many workers supporting extended family networks. Job losses in this sector would therefore have disproportionate impacts on women’s economic empowerment and household welfare, potentially reversing progress on gender equality and poverty reduction. Many of these workers come from rural areas where alternative formal employment opportunities are scarce, raising the spectre of increased rural poverty and potential migration pressures.
Politically, the tariff shock presents a significant challenge for President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s government, which came to power promising economic revival and relief from the hardships of the crisis period. The administration has appointed an advisory committee consisting of government officials and private sector representatives to study the impact of the tariffs and develop response strategies, but its options are constrained by limited fiscal space and the conditions of the IMF programme.
The situation also raises questions about Sri Lanka’s foreign policy orientation. The country has traditionally maintained balanced relationships with major powers, including the United States, China, and India. However, the unilateral imposition of punitive tariffs by the United States may prompt some policymakers to reconsider this balance and potentially look more favourably on economic engagement with China, which has been a major infrastructure investor in Sri Lanka through its Belt and Road Initiative.
Such a reorientation would have significant geopolitical implications in the Indian Ocean region, where great power competition has intensified in recent years. It could potentially accelerate the fragmentation of the global economy into competing blocs, a trend that President Trump’s broader tariff policy seems designed to encourage despite its economic costs.
The social and political fallout from the tariffs thus extends far beyond immediate economic indicators, potentially reshaping Sri Lanka’s development trajectory and its place in the regional and global order. For a country still recovering from political instability triggered by economic crisis, these additional pressures come at a particularly vulnerable moment.
BROADER IMPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPING ECONOMIES
Sri Lanka’s experience with Trump’s tariffs is not unique. The sweeping nature of these trade measures has created similar challenges for developing economies across the Global South, revealing structural vulnerabilities in the international economic system and raising fundamental questions about the sustainability of export-led development models in an era of rising protectionism.
Comparative Analysis with Other Affected Developing Countries
While Sri Lanka faces a punishing 44% tariff rate, it is not alone in confronting severe trade barriers. Bangladesh, another South Asian country heavily dependent on textile exports, has been hit with a 37% tariff. Like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh has built its development strategy around its garment industry, which accounts for more than 80% of its export earnings and employs approximately 4 million workers, mostly women.
Other significantly affected developing economies include Vietnam (46% tariff), Cambodia (49%), Pakistan (29%), and several African nations that had previously benefited from preferential access to the U.S. market through programs like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Many of these countries share common characteristics, relatively low per capita incomes, heavy reliance on a narrow range of export products, and limited domestic markets that make export-oriented growth their primary development pathway.
The pattern of tariff rates reveals a troubling dynamic, some of the highest tariffs have been imposed on countries that can least afford the economic shock. While wealthy nations like Japan or Germany certainly face challenges from these trade
barriers, they possess diversified economies, substantial domestic markets, and financial resources to cushion the impact. By contrast, countries like Sri Lanka or Bangladesh have far fewer economic buffers and face potentially devastating consequences from similar or higher tariff rates.
This disparity highlights how President Trump’s “reciprocal tariff” formula, ostensibly designed to create a level playing field, actually reinforces existing power imbalances in the global economy. By treating trade deficits as the primary metric for determining tariff rates, the policy ignores the vast differences in economic development, productive capacity, and financial resilience between countries at different stages of development.
Structural Vulnerabilities of Export-Dependent Economies
The tariff shock has exposed fundamental vulnerabilities in the export-led development model that has dominated economic thinking about the Global South for decades. Since the 1980s, international financial institutions have consistently advised developing countries to orient their economies toward export markets, specialize according to comparative advantage, and integrate into global value chains as a path to economic growth and poverty reduction.
This model has delivered significant benefits in many cases. Countries like Vietnam, Bangladesh, and, to some extent, Sri Lanka have achieved impressive poverty reduction and economic growth by expanding their manufacturing exports. However, President Trump’s tariffs reveal the precariousness of development strategies built on continued access to wealthy consumer markets, particularly the United States.
Several structural vulnerabilities have become apparent,
1. First, export concentration creates acute dependency on a small number of markets and products. When Sri Lanka sends 23% of its exports to the United States and concentrates 40% of its total exports in textiles and apparel, it becomes extraordinarily vulnerable to policy changes affecting that specific market-product combination.
Diversification, both of export markets and products, has often been acknowledged as desirable in theory but has proven difficult to implement in practice due to established trade patterns, buyer relationships, and specialized production capabilities.
2. Second, participation in global value chains often traps developing countries in lower-value segments of production with limited opportunities for upgrading. Sri Lanka’s textile industry, while more advanced than some of its regional competitors, still primarily engages in contract manufacturing rather than controlling higher-value activities like design, branding, or retail. This position in the value chain yields lower returns and creates dependency on decisions made by lead firms in wealthy countries.
3. Third, the mobility of capital relative to labour creates a fundamental power imbalance. If tariffs make production in Sri Lanka uneconomical, global brands can relatively quickly shift their sourcing to other countries with lower tariffs or costs. However, Sri Lankan workers cannot similarly relocate, leaving them bearing the brunt of adjustment costs through unemployment and wage depression.
4. Fourth, developing countries typically lack the fiscal space to provide adequate social protection during economic shocks. Unlike wealthy nations that can deploy extensive safety nets during trade disruptions, countries like Sri Lanka, already implementing austerity measures under IMF programmes, have limited capacity to support displaced workers or affected industries. This exacerbates the social costs of trade shocks and can trigger political instability. (To be continued)
(The writer served as the Minister of Justice, Finance and Foreign Affairs of Sri Lanka)
Disclaimer:
This article contains projections and scenario-based analysis based on current economic trends, policy statements, and historical behaviour patterns. While every effort has been made to ensure factual accuracy, using publicly available data and established economic models, certain details, particularly regarding future policy decisions and their impacts, remain hypothetical. These projections are intended to inform discussion and analysis, not to predict outcomes with certainty.
Features
Opportunity for govt. to confirm its commitment to reconciliation

by Jehan Perera
The international system, built at the end of two world wars, was designed with the aspiration of preserving global peace, promoting justice, and ensuring stability through a Rules-Based International Order. Institutions such as the United Nations, the UN Covenants on Human Rights and the United Nations Human Rights Council formed the backbone of this system. They served as crucial platforms for upholding human rights norms and international law. Despite its many imperfections, this system remains important for small countries like Sri Lanka, offering some measure of protection against the pressures of great power politics. However, this international order has not been free from criticism. The selective application of international norms, particularly by powerful Western states, has weakened its legitimacy over time.
The practice of double standards, with swift action in some conflicts like Ukraine but inaction in others like Palestine has created a credibility gap, particularly among non-Western countries. Nevertheless, the core ideals underpinning the UN system such as justice, equality, and peace remain worthy of striving towards, especially for countries like Sri Lanka seeking to consolidate national reconciliation and sustainable development. Sri Lanka’s post-war engagement with the UNHRC highlights the tensions between sovereignty and accountability. Following the end of its three-decade civil war in 2009, Sri Lanka faced multiple UNHRC resolutions calling for transitional justice, accountability for human rights abuses, and political reforms. In 2015, under Resolution 30/1, Sri Lanka co-sponsored a landmark commitment to implement a comprehensive transitional justice framework, including truth-seeking, reparations, and institutional reforms.
However, the implementation of these pledges has been slow and uneven. By 2019, Sri Lanka formally withdrew its support for UNHRC Resolution 30/1, citing concerns over sovereignty and external interference. This has led to a deepening cycle with more demanding UNHRC resolutions being passed at regular intervals, broadening the scope of international scrutiny to the satisfaction of the minority, while resistance to it grows in the majority community. The recent Resolution 51/1 of 2022 reflects this trend, with a wider range of recommendations including setting up of an external monitoring mechanism in Geneva. Sri Lanka today stands at a critical juncture. A new government, unburdened by direct involvement in past violations and committed to principles of equality and inclusive governance, now holds office. This provides an unprecedented opportunity to break free from the cycle of resolutions and negative international attention that have affected the country’s image.
KEEPING GSP+
The NPP government has emphasised its commitment to treating all citizens equally, regardless of ethnicity, religion, or region. This commitment corresponds with the spirit of the UN system, which seeks not to punish but to promote positive change. It is therefore in Sri Lanka’s national interest to approach the UNHRC not as an adversary, but as a partner in a shared journey toward justice and reconciliation. Sri Lanka must also approach this engagement with an understanding of the shortcomings of the present international system. The West’s selective enforcement of human rights norms has bred distrust. Sri Lanka’s legitimate concerns about double standards are valid, particularly when one compares the Western response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with the muted responses to the plight of Palestinians or interventions in Libya and Iraq.
However, pointing to hypocrisy does not absolve Sri Lanka of its own obligations. Indeed, the more credible and consistent Sri Lanka is in upholding human rights at home, the stronger its moral position becomes in calling for a fairer and more equitable international order. Engaging with the UN system from a position of integrity will also strengthen Sri Lanka’s international partnerships, preserve crucial economic benefits such as GSP Plus with the European Union, and promote much-needed foreign investment and tourism. The continuation of GSP Plus is contingent upon Sri Lanka’s adherence to 27 international conventions relating to human rights, labour rights, environmental standards, and good governance. The upcoming visit of an EU monitoring mission is a vital opportunity for Sri Lanka to demonstrate its commitment to these standards. It needs to be kept in mind that Sri Lanka lost GSP Plus in 2010 due to concerns over human rights violations. Although it was regained in 2017, doubts were raised again in 2021, when the European Parliament called for its reassessment, citing the continued existence and use of the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) and broader concerns about rule of law.
The government needs to treat the GSP Plus obligations with the same seriousness that it applies to its commitments to the International Monetary Fund. Prior to the elections, the NPP pledged to repeal the PTA if it came to power. There are some cases reported from the east where trespass of forest had been stated as offences and legal action filed under the PTA in courts which had been dragging for years, awaiting instructions from the Attorney General which do not come perhaps due to over-work. But the price paid by those detained under this draconian law is unbearably high. The repeal or substantial reform of the PTA is urgent, not only to meet human rights standards but also to reassure the EU of Sri Lanka’s sincerity. The government has set up a committee to prepare new legislation. The government needs to present the visiting EU delegation with a credible and transparent roadmap for reform, backed by concrete actions rather than promises. Demonstrating goodwill at this juncture will not only preserve GSP Plus but also strengthen Sri Lanka’s hand in future trade negotiations and diplomatic engagements.
INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIP
The government’s recent emphasis on good governance, economic recovery, and anti-corruption is a positive foundation. But as experience shows, economic reform alone is insufficient. Political reforms, especially those that address the grievances of minority communities and uphold human rights, are equally critical to national stability and prosperity. There is a recent tendency of the state to ignore these in reality and announce that there is no minority or majority as all are citizens, but which is seen by the minorities as sweeping many issues under the carpet.
Examples give are the appointment of large number of persons from the majority community to the council of Eastern University whose faculty is mainly from the minority communities or the failure to have minority representation in many high level state committees. Neglecting these dimensions risks perpetuating internal divisions and giving ammunition to external critics. The government’s political will needs to extend beyond economic management to genuine national reconciliation. Instead of being seen as a burden, meeting the EU’s GSP Plus obligations and those of UNHRC Resolution 51/1 can be viewed as providing a roadmap.
The task before the government is to select key areas where tangible progress can be made within the current political and institutional context, demonstrating good faith and building international confidence. Several recommendations within Resolution 51/1 can be realistically implemented without compromising national sovereignty. Advancing the search for truth and providing reparations to victims of the conflict, repealing the Prevention of Terrorism Act, revitalising devolution both by empowering the elected provincial councils, reducing the arbitrary powers of the governors as well as through holding long-delayed elections are all feasible and impactful measures. The return of occupied lands, compensation for victims, and the inclusion of minority communities in governance at all levels are also steps that are achievable within Sri Lanka’s constitutional framework and political reality. Crucially, while engaging with these UNHRC recommendations, the government needs to also articulate its own vision of reconciliation and justice. Rather than appearing as if it is merely responding to external pressure, the government should proactively frame its efforts as part of a homegrown agenda for national renewal. Doing so would preserve national dignity while demonstrating international responsibility.
The NPP government is unburdened by complicity in past abuses and propelled by a mandate for change. It has a rare window of opportunity. By moving decisively to implement assurances given in the past to the EU to safeguard GSP Plus and engaging sincerely with the UNHRC, Sri Lanka can finally extricate itself from the cycle of international censure and chart a new path based on reconciliation and international partnership. As the erosion of the international rules-based order continues and big power rivalries intensify, smaller states like Sri Lanka need to secure their positions through partnerships, and multilateral engagement. In a transactional world, in which nothing is given for free but everything is based on give and take, trust matters more than ever. By demonstrating its commitment to human rights, reconciliation, and inclusive governance, not only to satisfy the international community but also for better governance and to develop trust internally, Sri Lanka can strengthen its hand internationally and secure a more stable and prosperous future.
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