Connect with us

Business

Fitch downgrades Sri Lanka’s long-term foreign-currency IDR to ‘CC’

Published

on

Fitch Ratings has downgraded Sri Lanka’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘CC’, from ‘CCC’. Fitch typically does not assign Outlooks or apply modifiers for sovereigns with a rating of ‘CCC’ or below.

A number of rating actions are as follows.

The downgrade reflects our view of an increased probability of a default event in coming months in light of Sri Lanka’s worsening external liquidity position, underscored by a drop in foreign-exchange reserves set against high external debt payments and limited financing inflows. The severity of financial stress is illustrated by elevated government-bond yields and downward pressure on the currency.

We have affirmed the Long-Term Local-Currency IDR at ‘CCC’, as authorities have continued access to domestic financing, despite high and still-rising government debt and an elevated debt service burden.

Sri Lanka’s foreign-exchange reserves have declined much faster than we expected at our last review, owing to a combination of a higher import bill and foreign-currency intervention by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. Foreign exchange reserves have declined by about USD2 billion since August, falling to USD1.6 billion at end-November, equivalent to less than one month of current external payments (CXP). This represents a drop in foreign-currency reserves of about USD 4 billion since end-2020.

We believe it will be difficult for the government to meet its external debt obligations in 2022 and 2023 in the absence of new external financing sources. Obligations include two international sovereign bonds of USD500 million due in January 2022 and USD1 billion due in July 2022. The government also faces foreign-currency debt service payments, including principal and interest, of USD6.9 billion in 2022, equivalent to nearly 430% of official gross international reserves as of November 2021. Cumulative foreign-currency debt service, including interest and principal, amounts to about USD26 billion from 2022 through to 2026.

The timing and availability of external resources is unclear and may not be readily available for debt service. The central bank published a six-month roadmap in October that outlined plans to raise additional external borrowings through a number of channels, including bilateral and multilateral sources, syndicated loans and through the monetisation of under-utilised assets in 1Q22.

A drawdown on the existing currency swap facility with the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) could boost reserves by up to CNY10 billion (USD1.5 billion equivalent). However, even with resources from the swap facility, foreign exchange reserves are likely to remain under pressure, in our view. Additional sources of financing could come from an economic support package from India, which contains a swap facility under the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation currency framework of USD400 million, a swap facility with the Qatar Central Bank, remittances securitisation and a revolving credit facility with the Bank of China Limited (A/Stable). However, even if all these sources are secured, we believe it will be challenging for the government to maintain sufficient external liquidity to allow for uninterrupted debt servicing in 2022.

Press reports suggest the government may be contemplating IMF financing; an IMF programme would unlock multilateral financing, but we believe the Fund could well suggest restructuring to bring about debt sustainability.

Sri Lanka’s external finances are further challenged by a persistent current account deficit, resulting in downward pressure on the exchange rate. We estimate that the deficit widened to about 5.7% of GDP in 2021 and expect it to remain at about 4.0% in 2022, before falling to 2.1% by 2023. A plunge in remittances, a weak tourism recovery and rising imports have contributed to the wider current account deficit. Travel and tourism, an important economic driver, has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic and the outlook for a recovery remains uncertain given the emergence of new highly transmissible virus variants.

The Sri Lankan rupee/US dollar spot exchange rate depreciated by 7%-8% since end-2020, and the central bank intervened to support the currency, exacerbating the decline in reserves.

Wide fiscal deficits continue to worsen the outlook for debt sustainability. The 2021 fiscal deficit target of 8.9% of GDP was missed by a wide margin, and we expect the government deficit to widen to about 11.5% of GDP in 2022. We believe 2022 revenue targets are optimistic, especially in light of our expectation of weak economic activity. We forecast general government debt to reach about 110% of GDP by 2022, and to keep rising under our baseline, absent major fiscal consolidation.

We also believe it is unlikely that Sri Lanka will meet its 2025 government debt reduction target of about 89% of GDP or narrow the fiscal deficit to 4.8% of GDP. Rising interest payments are a major driver of the widening deficit and the interest/revenue ratio of at about 95.0% is well above the peer median of 11.3%.

Sri Lanka’s economic performance is likely to weaken in 2022, as the challenging external position and exchange-rate pressure will have knock-on effects on economic activity. Foreign currency shortages in 2021 hampered food and fuel imports, and continued external liquidity stress could worsen supply shortages, hurting economic activity. We expect growth to slow to 2.0% in 2022, from an estimated 3.6% in 2021, before recovering to 4.3% in 2023 partly due to base effects and a gradual easing of domestic pressures, although downside risks to our forecasts remain. Sri Lanka’s economy was expanding at a modest pace prior to the pandemic, which led real GDP to contract by 3.6% in 2020.

ESG – Governance: Sri Lanka has an ESG Relevance Score of ‘5’ for Political Stability and Rights. This reflects the high weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI) have in our proprietary Sovereign Rating Model. Sri Lanka has a medium WBGI ranking at the 47th percentile, reflecting a recent record of peaceful political transitions and a moderate level of rights for participation in the political process. As Sri Lanka has a percentile rank below 50 for the governance indicator, this has a negative impact on the credit profile.



Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Business

Britain has opened a door: Sri Lanka’s SME apparel exporters need help walking through it

Published

on

Trade preferences are often spoken of as though tariff cuts alone can remake an industry. They cannot. Preferences matter only when firms are able to use them. That is what makes the United Kingdom’s revised Developing Countries Trading Scheme (DCTS), effective from January 1, 2026, important for Sri Lanka’s apparel sector. It offers more than continued market access. It offers a more usable route into one of Sri Lanka’s key export markets. For large exporters, that is beneficial. For small and medium-sized firms, it could be pivotal.

The real significance lies in the rules of origin. Earlier preference regimes imposed conditions that often constrained smaller exporters, especially those without vertically integrated operations. The revised DCTS eases those constraints by allowing greater sourcing flexibility. For Sri Lankan apparel SMEs, that matters more than the headline concession. Smaller exporters rarely struggle because they cannot manufacture. More often, they struggle because they cannot source inputs competitively, price with enough agility, or meet delivery timelines reliably enough to retain buyer confidence. The DCTS begins to ease those commercial pressures.

That is the theory. The more important question is what it means in practice.

Joe Jayawardena, an exporter to the UK speaking from the perspective of a UK-linked buying and manufacturing business sourcing from Sri Lanka and other apparel-producing countries, put it plainly: the DCTS is a duty concession for developing countries. But its real value lies in how it changes the commercial conversation. If exporters can source from a wider pool of inputs without losing preferential access, they gain more room to negotiate on price, lead time, and fabric choice. In apparel, that is not a marginal gain. It can determine whether a supplier is shortlisted or ignored.

That matters particularly for Sri Lankan SMEs because they operate with structural disadvantages. They typically have less working capital, narrower supplier networks, and weaker bargaining power than larger manufacturers. They cannot absorb long delays. They cannot tie up cash in excessive inventory. And they rarely enjoy the upstream integration that allows major firms to manage both cost and compliance. When rules are rigid, smaller firms feel the pressure first. When rules become more flexible, they stand to benefit disproportionately.

That is why the DCTS should be viewed not merely as a customs adjustment, but as a competitiveness instrument.

Yet preferential access on paper does not automatically become export orders. Here, the exporters’ comments point to a harder truth. Jayawardena’s sharper criticism was not of the scheme itself, but of Sri Lanka’s failure, so far, to exploit it properly. The opportunity exists, he argued, but the connectivity does not. Better access means little if buyers are not being brought closer to suppliers, if exporters remain insufficiently visible in the market, and if the state treats market access as a passive entitlement rather than something to be actively commercialised.

That critique deserves attention. Sri Lanka has too often assumed that preferential access will somehow speak for itself. It does not. Trade schemes reward countries that organise around them. That means stronger participation in trade fairs, more direct buyer outreach, easier commercial engagement, and a more deliberate effort to market Sri Lanka’s value proposition. It also means helping SMEs turn regulatory change into business decisions. Which products are best placed under the new rules? How should firms restructure sourcing? What level of documentation is enough to avoid customs disputes? How should mixed shipments be managed? These are practical questions, and SMEs need practical answers.

Amindra Wimalasena, another exporter to the UK, pointed to the second half of the problem. Better market access alone will not allow firms to scale if they lack the means to modernise. His point was straightforward: with the right support for automation, and financing mechanisms designed around how the industry actually operates, output could rise materially without a proportional increase in labour. Productivity gains are possible, but only if investment reaches the factory floor rather than being trapped by wider financial constraints.

This is where the DCTS debate becomes more strategic. The scheme creates external opportunity. But Sri Lanka’s SME exporters still face internal constraints, especially in finance, systems, and market connection. Many smaller firms do not need another seminar on trade policy. They need inventory-backed lending, grace periods for machinery investment, stronger production planning, and better access to buyers. Without that, the gains from DCTS will flow mainly to firms already large enough to move quickly.

That would be a missed opportunity.

Sri Lanka’s apparel sector has long been anchored by a small number of established players. But the next phase of growth will require a broader base. SMEs can provide that, particularly in segments where flexibility, specialisation, and shorter production runs matter. Britain’s revised scheme could support exactly this part of the industry, if used properly. Greater sourcing freedom allows smaller firms to become more responsive. It lets them choose inputs on commercial merit rather than regulatory necessity. It can improve pricing, shorten lead times, and make them more attractive to UK buyers seeking agile sourcing partners.

But that outcome will not happen on its own. It requires an ecosystem response. Government and industry bodies need to treat DCTS as a commercial opening, not just a policy achievement. Support for SMEs must become more operational, not merely informational. And policymakers should link DCTS directly to productivity finance, so that smaller exporters can invest in efficiency and automation rather than simply admire improved market access from a distance.

The broader lesson is simple. Trade preferences create potential only when domestic institutions convert that potential into capability. The UK has widened the opening. Sri Lanka must now decide whether to merely welcome the gesture or make full commercial use of it.

For SME apparel exporters, the stakes are considerable. If the DCTS is properly leveraged, it could improve competitiveness, widen buyer access, and bring smaller firms closer to the centre of Sri Lanka’s export economy. If it is not, Sri Lanka risks repeating a familiar pattern: favourable terms, but limited results.

Britain has opened a door. Sri Lanka’s SMEs now need the systems, capital, and market access to walk through it.

Continue Reading

Business

CSE & NSEIX enter strategic partnership to expand capital market access

Published

on

Parties to the MoU signed at GIFT IFSC Global Securities Markets Conclave 2.0: Chetan Shah, Head of Capital Markets - Axis Bank Neeraj Kulshrestha, MD & CEO – NSE International Clearing Corporation; Balasubramaniam Venkataramani, MD & CEO – NSEIX; Kosala Gamage, Director – CSE; Rajeeva Bandaranaike, CEO – CSE; Ms. Punyamali Saparamadu, SVP – CSE; Ms. Hetal Kotak, Head of Listings – NSEIX.

The Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) and NSE IFSC LIMITED (NSEIX), an international multi-asset exchange and wholly owned subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited, signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) recently to strengthen capital market cooperation between Sri Lanka and India. Bringing together the senior leadership of both exchanges to formalise a strategic partnership, the occasion underscored the shared commitment of both institutions to building a more integrated regional financial ecosystem that benefits companies and investors in both exchanges.

Under this arrangement, both institutions will work towards introducing dual listings and cross listings, which will enable companies to list the same shares on both exchanges simultaneously, or to establish a presence on both markets through separate listings. Dual listings and cross listings offer listed companies a greater opportunity to increase liquidity through a broader and more diverse investor base and significantly enhance visibility among institutional and retail investors in both Sri Lanka and India. For companies in particular, access to India’s vast and deep capital markets could prove transformative in terms of growth financing and brand recognition.

Beyond listings, both the CSE and NSEIX have committed to working together to develop new financial products tailored to the needs of cross-border investors, reflecting the evolving sophistication of both markets.

The MoU also aims to enable bidirectional trading opportunities, giving investors in Sri Lanka and India access to each other’s markets. Furthermore, the Exchanges have agreed to undertake joint research initiatives, training programs, capacity building exercises, and outreach efforts for the mutual benefit of both institutions and the wider investment communities they serve.

Continue Reading

Business

Ceylinco Life chairman R. Renganathan honoured by CMA

Published

on

Ceylinco Life Executive Chairman Mr R. Renganathan receives the award.

Receives ‘Distinguished Recognition in the Profession of Management Accounting’ award for excellence in management accounting and financial stewardshipThe Executive Chairman of Ceylinco Life Insurance Ltd., R. Renganathan, has been conferred the prestigious ‘Distinguished Recognition in the Profession of Management Accounting’ award by the Institute of Certified Management Accountants (CMA) of Sri Lanka, in recognition of his outstanding contribution to financial discipline, governance, and sustainable value creation.

The accolade was presented at the inauguration of a workshop on Integrated Reporting and Sustainability Accounting Standards, underscoring the growing importance of integrated reporting frameworks and Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) principles in modern corporate management.

A Chartered Accountant by profession, Renganathan has been instrumental in shaping Ceylinco Life’s financial and governance framework since joining the company at its inception. Having led the organisation from the commencement of its life insurance operations in 1988, following the privatisation of the industry, he has consistently championed the principles of transparency, accountability, and long-term value creation, aligning the company with evolving global best practices in reporting and sustainability.

Under his stewardship, Ceylinco Life has strengthened its position as the market leader in Sri Lanka’s life insurance sector, a distinction it has retained for 22 consecutive years. His financial acumen and strategic foresight have contributed to the growth of the company’s Life Fund to over Rs. 200 billion, while innovative product development has enabled the organisation to extend life insurance protection to over one million breadwinners across the country.

The recognition also reflects Renganathan’s broader contribution as a thought leader in financial stewardship and sustainability, to elevating standards within the insurance industry, particularly in embedding strong governance practices and ethical conduct, while driving resilience and sustainable growth.

Ceylinco Life’s continued alignment with integrated reporting principles and sustainability standards reinforces its position as a responsible corporate leader committed to transparency, stakeholder value, and long-term financial stability. The honour bestowed on its Executive Chairman further underscores the company’s commitment to financial stewardship and its role in advancing best practices in corporate reporting and governance in Sri Lanka.

Continue Reading

Trending