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Fitch downgrades Sri Lanka’s long-term foreign-currency IDR to ‘CC’

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Fitch Ratings has downgraded Sri Lanka’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘CC’, from ‘CCC’. Fitch typically does not assign Outlooks or apply modifiers for sovereigns with a rating of ‘CCC’ or below.

A number of rating actions are as follows.

The downgrade reflects our view of an increased probability of a default event in coming months in light of Sri Lanka’s worsening external liquidity position, underscored by a drop in foreign-exchange reserves set against high external debt payments and limited financing inflows. The severity of financial stress is illustrated by elevated government-bond yields and downward pressure on the currency.

We have affirmed the Long-Term Local-Currency IDR at ‘CCC’, as authorities have continued access to domestic financing, despite high and still-rising government debt and an elevated debt service burden.

Sri Lanka’s foreign-exchange reserves have declined much faster than we expected at our last review, owing to a combination of a higher import bill and foreign-currency intervention by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. Foreign exchange reserves have declined by about USD2 billion since August, falling to USD1.6 billion at end-November, equivalent to less than one month of current external payments (CXP). This represents a drop in foreign-currency reserves of about USD 4 billion since end-2020.

We believe it will be difficult for the government to meet its external debt obligations in 2022 and 2023 in the absence of new external financing sources. Obligations include two international sovereign bonds of USD500 million due in January 2022 and USD1 billion due in July 2022. The government also faces foreign-currency debt service payments, including principal and interest, of USD6.9 billion in 2022, equivalent to nearly 430% of official gross international reserves as of November 2021. Cumulative foreign-currency debt service, including interest and principal, amounts to about USD26 billion from 2022 through to 2026.

The timing and availability of external resources is unclear and may not be readily available for debt service. The central bank published a six-month roadmap in October that outlined plans to raise additional external borrowings through a number of channels, including bilateral and multilateral sources, syndicated loans and through the monetisation of under-utilised assets in 1Q22.

A drawdown on the existing currency swap facility with the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) could boost reserves by up to CNY10 billion (USD1.5 billion equivalent). However, even with resources from the swap facility, foreign exchange reserves are likely to remain under pressure, in our view. Additional sources of financing could come from an economic support package from India, which contains a swap facility under the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation currency framework of USD400 million, a swap facility with the Qatar Central Bank, remittances securitisation and a revolving credit facility with the Bank of China Limited (A/Stable). However, even if all these sources are secured, we believe it will be challenging for the government to maintain sufficient external liquidity to allow for uninterrupted debt servicing in 2022.

Press reports suggest the government may be contemplating IMF financing; an IMF programme would unlock multilateral financing, but we believe the Fund could well suggest restructuring to bring about debt sustainability.

Sri Lanka’s external finances are further challenged by a persistent current account deficit, resulting in downward pressure on the exchange rate. We estimate that the deficit widened to about 5.7% of GDP in 2021 and expect it to remain at about 4.0% in 2022, before falling to 2.1% by 2023. A plunge in remittances, a weak tourism recovery and rising imports have contributed to the wider current account deficit. Travel and tourism, an important economic driver, has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic and the outlook for a recovery remains uncertain given the emergence of new highly transmissible virus variants.

The Sri Lankan rupee/US dollar spot exchange rate depreciated by 7%-8% since end-2020, and the central bank intervened to support the currency, exacerbating the decline in reserves.

Wide fiscal deficits continue to worsen the outlook for debt sustainability. The 2021 fiscal deficit target of 8.9% of GDP was missed by a wide margin, and we expect the government deficit to widen to about 11.5% of GDP in 2022. We believe 2022 revenue targets are optimistic, especially in light of our expectation of weak economic activity. We forecast general government debt to reach about 110% of GDP by 2022, and to keep rising under our baseline, absent major fiscal consolidation.

We also believe it is unlikely that Sri Lanka will meet its 2025 government debt reduction target of about 89% of GDP or narrow the fiscal deficit to 4.8% of GDP. Rising interest payments are a major driver of the widening deficit and the interest/revenue ratio of at about 95.0% is well above the peer median of 11.3%.

Sri Lanka’s economic performance is likely to weaken in 2022, as the challenging external position and exchange-rate pressure will have knock-on effects on economic activity. Foreign currency shortages in 2021 hampered food and fuel imports, and continued external liquidity stress could worsen supply shortages, hurting economic activity. We expect growth to slow to 2.0% in 2022, from an estimated 3.6% in 2021, before recovering to 4.3% in 2023 partly due to base effects and a gradual easing of domestic pressures, although downside risks to our forecasts remain. Sri Lanka’s economy was expanding at a modest pace prior to the pandemic, which led real GDP to contract by 3.6% in 2020.

ESG – Governance: Sri Lanka has an ESG Relevance Score of ‘5’ for Political Stability and Rights. This reflects the high weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI) have in our proprietary Sovereign Rating Model. Sri Lanka has a medium WBGI ranking at the 47th percentile, reflecting a recent record of peaceful political transitions and a moderate level of rights for participation in the political process. As Sri Lanka has a percentile rank below 50 for the governance indicator, this has a negative impact on the credit profile.



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CEB successor company breaks into top three in competitive BESS tender

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Snr. Eng. Pubudhu Niroshan: ‘Boon to consumers’

By Ifham Nizam

National Transmission Network Service Provider (Pvt) Ltd. (NTNSP), has secured third place in Sri Lanka’s fiercely contested 160 MW/640 MWh Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) tender, beating a number of established private-sector energy players in a major competitive procurement exercise just six months after the restructuring of the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB).

The result marks a significant early indication that a newly restructured CEB successor company can compete on a commercial footing with established players in the rapidly expanding energy market, Senior Engineer Pubudhu Niroshan told The Island Financial Review.

More significantly, Niroshan said NTNSP’s entry into the tender helped intensify competition and contributed to a roughly 10% reduction in the lowest bid compared with the previous 160 MW/640 MWh BESS procurement, potentially delivering a more favourable outcome for electricity consumers.

“Entering such a highly competitive bidding process within just six months of restructuring and emerging third is by no means an easy task, Niroshan said.

He said the achievement had to be viewed in the context of the calibre and number of competitors involved in the process, adding that NTNSP had demonstrated that a successor company emerging from the CEB restructuring could step into a competitive commercial environment and hold its own against established businesses.

The significance of NTNSP’s participation, however, extended beyond its third-place ranking.

According to Niroshan, the company’s decision to enter the BESS procurement created an additional layer of competition, forcing other bidders to sharpen their commercial offers.

‘The first and second-ranked bidders had NTNSP as another competitor. That itself created additional competitive pressure, he said.

The BESS procurement involved a total capacity of 160 MW/640 MWh, with the programme divided into individual projects.

The procurement was designed to bring private and other eligible project proponents into the development and operation of battery storage facilities, providing an important mechanism for integrating renewable energy and strengthening the electricity system.

The outcome, he said, was particularly important for electricity consumers because greater competition in procurement could ultimately translate into lower costs for the power system.

‘Once you have several serious players competing, offering a fair and competitive price becomes essential. That is ultimately good for the consumer, he said.

Niroshan also referred to concerns previously raised by NTNSP before the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) regarding prices submitted for BESS projects under the Feed-in Tariff (FiT) mechanism.

He said subsequent market developments had provided support for the view that some of the prices submitted under the FiT mechanism were comparatively high.

For Niroshan, the experience also demonstrated why competition must remain at the heart of the restructuring of the electricity sector.

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Hundred farming elders witness Sacred Dalada Perahera

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Serendib Flour Mills continued its longstanding commitment to rural communities through the fifth edition of Serendib Uththama Dalada, more than 100 elderly mothers and fathers from remote farming communities to experience the sacred Sri Dalada Perahera in Kandy.

Held on 26 August 2026, the initiative brought together elderly parents from Mahalakotuwa, Elahera and Attanakadawala, many of whom have spent a lifetime engaged in agriculture and contributing towards sustaining communities across the country. For these elders, the initiative offered an opportunity to undertake a deeply meaningful spiritual journey and witness one of Sri Lanka’s most revered religious and cultural traditions.

Conducted under the campaign thought, “Nourishing the hearts of elderly parents with spiritual merits, who once nourished a generation,” Serendib Uththama Dalada recognises the lifelong contribution and sacrifices of farming mothers and fathers while creating an experience that may otherwise remain beyond their reach.

Serendib Flour Mills facilitated the entire journey, providing safe and comfortable return transportation to Kandy aboard three dedicated buses. Special arrangements were also made to enable the participants to worship at the Sri Dalada Maligawa, followed by reserved seating at a specially erected VIP stand, allowing them to comfortably witness the grandeur of the Dalada Perahera.

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Siyapatha Finance records ‘exceptional financial performance for 1H2026’

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Sumith Cumaranatunga, Chairman / Mathisha Hewavitharana, CEO

Siyapatha Finance PLC, the largest fully-owned finance company of the Sampath Bank Group, delivered an exceptional financial performance for the six months ended 30 June 2026, reflecting the Company’s continued strategic growth initiatives, resilient asset quality, and unwavering commitment to sustainable value creation.

The Company recorded a profit after tax (PAT) of Rs. 1,007 million, a robust 43 percent increase from Rs. 706 million in the corresponding period of 2025, while profit before taxes (PBT) grew 38 percent to Rs. 2,334 million from Rs. 1,689 million, demonstrating sustained market and customer confidence in the Company’s core operations.

“Our performance in the first half of 2026 is a clear reflection of Siyapatha Finance’s strategic foresight and our unwavering commitment to sustainable growth,” said Siyapatha Finance Chief Executive Officer Mathisha Hewawitharana. “Surpassing the Rs. 104 billion mark in total assets while significantly improving our asset quality underscores the strength of our core operations and the deep trust our customers place in us. As we navigate the evolving macroeconomic landscape, we remain focused on prudent risk management and delivering enhanced value to our stakeholders.”

The Company’s core business operations continued to yield strong returns, with total interest income growing to Rs. 7,719 million from Rs. 5,272 million a year earlier, driving net interest income up to Rs. 3,487 million from Rs. 2,629 million, signifying the Company’s efficient management of assets and liabilities. Other income strengthened to Rs. 1,054 million from Rs. 826 million, reinforcing the effectiveness of the Company’s revenue diversification strategy. The cost-to-income ratio improved to 49 percent from 54 percent, a testament to the Company’s continued focus on operational efficiency and process optimization.

Asset quality strengthened markedly during the period, underscoring the success of Siyapatha Finance’s prudent credit risk management and proactive recovery initiatives. The gross stage 3 loans ratio improved to 4 percent from 8 percent a year earlier, while the net stage 3 loans ratio declined to 2 percent from 3 percent.

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