Business
Public finances put the government in a tight spot
‘Can’t spend more than Rs. 4,219 billion for 2025’
‘Low GDP forecast is one of the main constraints’
Minister says,’govt is navigating the challenges’
By Sanath Nanayakkare
The management of public finances in 2025, has thrown a huge challenge at the government, according to Prof. Anil Jayantha Fernando, Minister of Labour and Deputy Minister of Economic Development.He went on to say that the government is taking a broader perspective of the prevailing situation and is navigating the challenges well.
“Although we have enough money now, we can’t spend more than Rs. 4,219 billion for the fiscal year 2025”, he stated on January 17, 2025, delivering the keynote address at the 11th edition of the First Capital investor Symposium, held at Cinnamon Grand, Colombo.
“The period available for us to come up with the Budget creates a lot of constraints, and in addition, system embedded constraints are also there. The main constraint is the forecasted GDP for 2025. It has been calculated based on economic variables and past trends. The growth rate in 2024 was 2.1% and the expected real GDP growth for the next 4 – 5 years is around 2-3%. Because of these low expectations, the GDP expectations for 2025 have been confined to Rs. 33 trillion rupees. Other primary spending is subject to this cap. 13% of expected GDP is the cap for revenue expenses. No matter we have enough money now, we can’t spend more than Rs. 4,219 billion for 2025,” he said.
“That is a bit of a challenge for us. There is a ceiling for capital expenses which is 4% of the GDP. It comes to about Rs. 1,320 billion. We can increase that by reducing revenue expenses. But you can’t reduce each expense that much because the bulk of the revenue expenses comprise state salaries, pensions etc. So, there is very little fiscal space, but when it comes to capital expenses, there is some space there. Some of these expenses are incurred by ongoing projects. We were able to repurpose some of the ongoing projects for this year, and we managed to incorporate some [new] capital expenditure; in other words, the items that we had presented in our manifesto, into this space. Anyway, I would like to mention that 2025 will be a challenging year. After all, depending on the success we are going to achieve in 2025, there will be a comfortable position for us at the next [IMF]review and discussions in the future,” he said.
Speaking about the investment landscape, he said, “Our government was given a different mandate. It has been perceived differently by different segments of the country. The individuals of society is oriented towards maximizing their own wealth from investments, but not all individuals in society can gain from them in an equitable manner. So, the government wants to act as an instrument in striking a balance between individual interests and public interests. We will take that mandate from that perspective and act as true agents of the masses without creating any conflicts of interest. Our policy decisions and activities will be driven towards upholding the public interest over private interests.”
“People may have different perceptions about our government. That may be why sometimes there is a sentiment in society that the new government is not doing anything. They talk about the price of commodities remaining at the same levels, or even higher. Of course, we need to solve these. However, as a responsible government, we need to look at things in a broader perspective.”
“Political stability is now in place. We have been managing fiscal stability as per the [IMF] benchmarks. But we still need to broaden the taxbase and optimize tax administration. When it comes to financial stability, we are seeing a normal yield curve and the interest rate is also coming down gradually. That is reflected in the forex market as well.”
“We have a big target for foreign exchange reserves this year and in the coming years. The signs indicate that we will be able to achieve it despite challenges in the way. Allowing motor vehicle imports is necessary as the economy is reviving and that will be another challenge that we have to deal with.”
“Social stabilization also needs a lot of focus as a large majority of the masses are struggling. We have taken measures to iron out this situation to some extent. We are contemplating on giving more targeted benefits to the vulnerable segments.”
“The Opposition would say that we are inexperienced, but we have that political experience, and we are in a learning process. And that learning would help us take things in the right direction.”
“A rift can occur when the financial system stability is not connected to the real economy and when it is not driven by the economic fundamentals. We need to bring about a robust and vibrant capital market in the future. When we have an alienated financial sphere and operate it in such a manner, it could lead to market bubbles and consequently to inevitable crashes. So, we need to see how best we can share accurate and credible market information without leaving room for irregularities, insider trading and so on. The government’s objective is to create a capital market where accurate information is freely available and with one’s competence and talent, they can identify suitable investment vehicles and channel their savings into the right portfolios. When only a few have exclusive information about the goings-on in the capital market, that is not democratic. This is where new technology should be deployed to bridge that gap.”
“It appears that the political, economic, financial and techno spheres are making their own separate journey. Our vision is to converge these spheres as much as possible, so that the capital and financial markets can link to create capital formation by attracting more savings.”
“The government will create such a conducive environment for capital formation to help energize the economy where national savings will be channeled into investments.”
“The capital market’s efficiency should not be compromised by the adverse elements I mentioned earlier. We think that market efficiency is not up to the mark at present. For example, the extraordinary performance of the stock market shows increased confidence in investors because of the policies of the government, but I won’t say that this was only because of government action,” the minister said candidly.
At the dinner-time networking following the First Capital Investor symposium, a participant was heard telling a friend, “We’d better have some money ready to invest in short-tenor government securities which might generate rising yields.”
Business
Inflation curbed by govt. fuel subsidy introduction and surcharge on vehicle import tax – CBSL Governor
By Hiran H. Senewiratne
The government’s decision to introduce the fuel subsidy and the surcharge on the vehicle import tax helped curb inflation to a great extent, Central Bank Governor Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe said.
‘The government this week approved a Rs. 40 billion fuel subsidy for the next three months on top of Rs. 57 billion provided from April-June, Governor Weerasinghe told the media yesterday at the Central Bank head office in Colombo at the CBSL’s monthly monetary policy review meeting.
‘If not for fuel subsidy and surcharge on the vehicle import tax, the inflation would have been higher than the current level, the Governor said.
‘There could have been higher imports and reserve building up would have been difficult. Inflation has risen beyond the Central Bank’s upper band of 7 percent since July, he said.
‘The country’s inflation hit a 37-month high of 8 percent in August after the government raised fuel prices more than 50 percent following the Middle Eastern escalation by end February, Dr Weerasinghe said.
The Central Bank’s inflation target for the past three years have been 5 percent with lower band of 3 percent and higher band of 7 percent, Governor said.
The Governor added: ‘The government provided Rs.57 billion as a fuel subsidy mainly for diesel. The latest Rs.41 billion has been allocated only for diesel as it is used for public transport.
‘The government also imposed a temporary 50 percent surcharge on Customs Import Duty on new personal vehicles on May 16 and has extended it until December 31, a move that will help to prevent outflow of foreign currency.
‘The Central Bank also tightened the monetary policy in May, raising the key monetary policy rate by 100 basis points, to curb excess demand in the economy to control demand-driven inflation.’
Meanwhile, head of the CBSL’s Economic Research Department L.R.C. Pathberiya said, ‘Credit growth has slowed to 24.5 percent year on year in August from a higher level of 30 percent a few months ago, after the Central Bank’s monetary policy tightening in May.
‘However, the Central Bank is optimistic about the current credit growth, he explained.
Pathberiya added: ‘The credit to the private sector from commercial banks has slowed, but we believe it is sufficient for economic growth.
‘The nation’s economic growth slowed to 4.2 percent year-on-year, its lowest in 11 quarters’’.
Business
PM warns Sri Lanka’s waste crisis is a ‘disaster waiting to happen’
By Ifham Nizam
Prime Minister Dr. Harini Amarasuriya warned that Sri Lanka’s worsening waste-management crisis, particularly the uncontrolled accumulation of plastic waste and poorly managed landfills, was a “disaster waiting to happen”, urging scientists, researchers and policymakers to help the government find practical solutions before the problem reaches a critical point.
Addressing the launching of the Open University of Sri Lanka organized, ‘International Conference on Plastics, Innovations and Environmental Sustainability’ (ICPIES 2026) as Chief Guest, at the Cinnamon Lakeside Hotel yesterday she said waste management, waste reduction and recycling had become national priorities, with the government placing greater emphasis on the issue in its preparations for the 2027 Budget.
‘This is becoming a critical issue and something that, at any moment, if we don’t manage it properly, could become a huge disaster. It’s a disaster waiting to happen, Dr. Amarasuriya said.
She said unregulated and poorly managed landfills, particularly in and around Colombo, posed serious environmental and public risks, while increasing urbanisation was extending the waste-management challenge beyond the capital to other parts of the country.
‘As a member of Parliament for the Colombo District, I can tell you that one of the biggest challenges we are facing is waste management and actually managing the recycling of waste, and particularly of plastic products. This is something that we are battling every day, she said.
The Prime Minister said the government could not regard economic development as meaningful if it came at the expense of the country’s environment and natural resources.
‘If we are to speak of a beautiful life, we must first ensure that the air we breathe, the water we drink, the soil on which we live, the food we eat is clean and secure, she said.
She pointed to the scale of the global plastics crisis, noting that around 400 million tonnes of plastic waste are generated worldwide each year, while between 19 and 23 million metric tonnes of plastic waste enter natural ecosystems annually.
Plastic waste eventually breaks down into microplastics, which can enter aquatic organisms and subsequently the human food chain, she said.
Dr. Amarasuriya also linked plastic consumption and environmental degradation to the wider climate crisis, warning that the consequences of climate change were already being experienced by communities around the world.
She referred to devastating floods and landslides in the Himalayan region and said the impacts of climate change demonstrated that environmental damage could have consequences far beyond national boundaries.
Coastal clean-up projects and other waste-separation and recycling initiatives are also being implemented, while the government is working with the Western Provincial Council on a refuse-derived fuel project at Karadiyana.
The third ICPIES, held under the theme “Eco-Driven Innovations,” brings together researchers, policymakers, industry representatives and other stakeholders to examine plastic pollution, microplastics, circular-economy approaches, waste-management policy, technological innovation, artificial intelligence and smart environmental monitoring. The conference ends today.
Senior Professor P. M. C. Thilakarathne, Vice Chancellor of the Open University of Sri Lanka, was the Guest of Honour.
Business
Mention of possible future inflation dampens investor appetite
By Hiran H. Senewiratne
Stock investors were worried yesterday following Central Bank Governor Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe’s mention at the CBSL monthly monetary policy review meet of possible future inflation pressures that may impact the economy.
The All Share Price Index went down by 4.89 points, while the S and P SL20 rose by 16.1 points. Turnover stood at Rs 1.55 billion with four crossings.
Those crossings were; Access Engineering crossed 1.5 million shares to the tune of Rs 119.8 million; its shares traded at Rs 79.60, Sampath Bank 450,000 shares crossed tfor Rs 63 million; its shares sold at Rs 140, Sunshine Holdings 750,000 shares crossed to the tune of Rs 21.4 million; its shares traded at Rs 28.50 and Softlogic Life 290,000 shares crossed for Rs 20.4 million; its shares sold at Rs 70.40.
In the retail market companies that mainly contributed to the turnover were: Access Engineering Rs 150 million (1.9 million shares traded), JKH Rs 113 million (six million shares traded), Softlogic Life Rs 80 million (one million shares traded), Softlogic Capital Rs 64.7 million (6.7 million shares traded), Lanka Realty Rs 64.3 million (1.3 million shares traded), Colombo Dockyard Rs 53.7 million (452,000 shares traded) and Sierra Cables Rs 50 million (1.43 million shares traded). During the day 58.9 million share volumes changed hands in 13536 transactions.
It is said that mixed market reactions were noted especially in manufacturing while banking, insurance and FMCG sectors performed well. Further, construction sector counters, especially Access Engineering, and banking sector counters, especially Sampath Bank, performed well.
People’s Leasing & Finance PLC announced its allotment basis for 100 million listed debentures it issued to raise Rs 10 billion, after receiving applications for the full amount.
Yesterday the rupee was quoted at Rs 330.68/75 to the US dollar in the spot market from Rs 330.70/90 the previous day, while bond yields were quoted steady to lower, dealers said.
An auction of Rs 80,000 million Treasury bills was ongoing.
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