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Will Rajapaksas support help or hurt Prez Ranil’s election chances?

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Ranil and Mahinda (File photo)

By Harim Peiris

Sri Lanka’s Election Commission announced, late last week, the conducting of a presidential election, between 17 September and the 16 October 2024, in accordance with the Constitution and the relevant statute, The announcement comes as no surprise since the term of office of former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, being served out as President by his second Prime Minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe ends on 17 November. The next President needs to be elected at least one month before the end of the term, giving the newly elected President a maximum of one month in which to transition to office.

The Presidential Poll has become a genuine three-way race for the first time in our history, with Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) being a surprising but genuine contender for the nation’s top job, along with incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe and the Leader of the Opposition Sajith Premadasa. While political party or alliance names and symbols are constantly changing with every election cycle, the political forces they represent are largely the same from our recent political history.

Firstly, the JVP, or its newly minted NPP alliance, would be essentially Sri Lanka’s old leftist tradition, previously represented by parties such as the LSSP and the CP and now dominated by the JVP/NPP. The fact that the JVP, or its leader, is a credible presidential contestant has to do with the fact that the floating voter constituency deserting the Rajapaksas have initially looked to the JVP as the radical alternative to Rajapaksa populism rather than the more traditional and conservative Opposition SJB. But for the JVP / NPP public support seems to have peaked. Moreover, a close look at its political messaging seems to indicate attractive rhetoric which empathizes with popular pain but which is thin on policy specifics and especially on solutions.

For the SJB and Opposition leader Premadasa, the 2024 presidential poll is still theirs to lose. They face a Rajapaksa administration which self-imploded and a reconfigured successor Wickremesinghe administration which has merely gone back to the status quo ante as its policy framework. The SJB and Premadasa need to articulate a radical reformist agenda which captures the heart and essence of the political ethos of the “Aragalaya”. The Wickremesinghe administration’s heavy handed crackdown on the Aragalaya did not make its anti-incumbent and reformist politics go away. It merely created a two-year, caretaker administration of Ranil Wickremesinghe, until the real popularly elected presidency would come into office by / before end 2024. Much like the electorate waited patiently from 1975-77, when Ms. Bandaranaike postponed elections, to boot out the SLFP in 1977. The SJB and Premadasa need to articulate a clear, radical and reformist agenda as its vision for the future. As one foreign analyst of Sri Lankan affairs stated, “it is difficult for the SJB to be consistently on message, since it is not clear what its message is?”. This may be rather unkind, but there is a popular perception of a lack of clarity of what the SJB stands for, which is broadly articulated as reforms with social justice.

The hype and buzz in the popular press is about incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, hoping and claiming that his technocratic stewardship of the bankrupt economy from mid-2022 to date would prompt a grateful nation to entrust the next five years also to a Wickremesinghe presidency, albeit this time with a popular mandate. Seems a tough ask from a real politick standpoint. Here is a President from a political party, the UNP, which couldn’t elect a single MP from any district at the last general election, including Mr. Wickremesinghe from Colombo and was fortunate to get a single national list seat, to enable him to re-enter Parliament. His administration governs with the parliamentary support of the Rajapaksa SLPP, which long lost its mandate in 2022 and whose public support is likely in the single digits.

The game changer for Wickremesinghe is supposed to be his stewardship of the national economy from its nadir in 2022 and, indeed, we do now have fuel in the petrol stations, no queues, low interest rates and manageable inflation, as the President pointed out to Parliament recently. However, this superficial analysis belies some basic realities. The Wickremesinghe Administration’s economic policy programme has been no more than a return to the status quo ante, or what existed before the madness and mismanagement of the third Rajapaksa term. There has been absolutely no attempt at governance reforms. On the contrary from the human immunoglobulin scandal to the e-visa fiasco and numerous unsolicited proposals to government, mismanagement has been more the norm. There has also been a regrettable backsliding on democratic freedoms from the Online (censorship) Bill to the Administration’s choice of IGP. The Administration is now locked in stalemate with the Election Commission on its citizens committees at DS level and with the Constitutional Council over the appointments to the superior courts. Hardly the kind of thing we want for the next five years. Further the economic “stabilization” has occurred after a collapse of the currency and a decimation of the life-savings and purchasing power of the vast majority of the country’s populace. According to UN and other independent estimates about 60 percent of the country’s populace have seen real incomes errored, living standards drastically fall and growing malnutrition among vulnerable sections of over half the population. There is unlikely to be much gratitude for the reconfigured SLPP administration, nor its single seat UNP face.

The Wickremesinghe administration is a UNP and SLPP combine and neither of these political parties likely have much public support in the country at the moment. The Rajapaksa support for Wickremesinghe will only have currency and value if the voters have given up on the ethos of the Aragalaya and desire for a fourth Rajapaksa term by proxy, which is highly unlikely. But we will know for certain before the year end.

(The writer previously served as Presidential Spokesman and Advisor / Ministry of Foreign Affairs)



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A serpent resurrected: Rediscovery of Cope’s Rough-sided snake 

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Live Aspidura copei from Haldummulla, Sri Lanka (note the dark band and two cream colored spots on the side of the neck). Photos by Anusha Atthanagoda

By Ifham Nizam

For nearly a century, the Cope’s Rough-sided Snake (Aspidura copei) seemed to have vanished from the face of the earth. Last seen in the early 20th century, this elusive reptile was feared extinct, a casualty of habitat loss and human encroachment. However, a recent discovery has brought hope to conservationists and herpetologists alike.

The rediscovery of A. copei is a significant milestone in the field of herpetology. This species is one of the rarest members of its genus, with a narrow distribution and limited sightings. Its unique physical characteristics, including its distinctive coloration and keeled scales, make it a fascinating subject of study.

The researchers found that A. copei prefers habitats with dense canopy cover and cooler temperatures. They also observed that the species is threatened by habitat loss, deforestation, and human activities.

The scientific research team comprises of Anusha Atthanagoda of Ministry of Public Administration, Sajith Kumara of Kumbukawaththa, Gonapala, Dr. Anslem de Silva of the Amphibia and Reptile Research Organization, Buddhika Madurapperuma of the Department of Botany, The Open University of Sri Lanka, Majintha Madawala of the Victorian Herpetological Society, Australia and Suranjan Karunarathna of the Nature Explorations & Education Team.

Karunarathna, a member of the research team, shared with The Island that while the genus Aspidura includes nine species, A. copei stands out as one of the rarest. “Species-level molecular phylogenetic analyses have confirmed that all species within this genus are distinct,” said Karunarathna. However, he added: “A. copei has the narrowest distribution and is known from just 10 localities in the island’s submontane forests.”

Aspidura copei from Haldummulla, Sri Lanka (note dark blotches on the dorsum). Photos by Anusha Atthanagoda

Close-up images of the head of Aspidura copei Photos by Anusha Atthanagoda

 A Rare Jewel of Sri Lanka’s Forests

First described in 1864 by Albert Günther, A. copei has remained largely a mystery. The original specimen, held at London’s Natural History Museum, lacked precise location data, but over the years, researchers have managed to identify several other specimens in international museum collections. “Despite extensive research, the snake remains elusive and difficult to study in its natural habitat.”

What makes A. copei particularly fascinating is its adaptability to a burrowing lifestyle. With a pointed snout and subcylindrical body, this snake thrives in dense, humid forests where it hunts for earthworms and small insects. Unlike its more widely distributed relatives, A. copei seems to be tied to the moist, high-elevation habitats of Sri Lanka’s central wet zone.

 According to the MaxEnt Model predictions, the species is best suited to the tropical submontane and montane forests of South Central Sri Lanka. This fragile ecosystem, rich in biodiversity, is one of the last refuges for many of the island’s endemic species.

Habitat Loss and Fragmentation

However, these forests are under severe threat. The expansion of tea plantations, coupled with human settlements, has led to significant habitat degradation, fragmentation, and loss. “We observed many threats during our study, from tea land expansion to the development of human settlements,” said Karunarathna.

The researchers fear that these pressures could push A. copei and other species to the brink of extinction. Already confined to a few isolated localities, any further encroachment on its habitat could have devastating consequences.

 Guardians of the Ecosystem

The genus Aspidura, commonly known as rough-sided snakes due to the keeled scales along their bodies, represents an ancient lineage within the snake subfamily Natricinae. These snakes, while small and often overlooked, play an essential role in maintaining the health of forest ecosystems. They help control insect populations and contribute to the overall balance of the food web.

Their diminutive size—ranging from 150 to 700 mm—belies their ecological importance. “They are often found in areas with humus-rich soil and moist conditions, even in the lowlands,” said Dr. Anslem de Silva, one of the study’s co-authors. “But they seem to thrive in the wet montane zones, which are increasingly under threat.”

Species like A. copei act as indicator species, meaning their health reflects the state of their environment. A decline in their population could signal broader ecological issues, such as declining forest health or increasing environmental degradation.

Map 1:The current distribution of Aspidura copeiin Sri Lanka, (A). Avissawella, (B). Balangoda, (C). Dickoya, (D). Dimbulla, (E). Gongala, (F). Haldummulla, (G). Loolkandura, (H). Pundaluoya, (I). Sripadha, and (J). Suriyakanda in the left side, and MaxEnt-predicted potential suitable habitats for the Species in Sri Lanka in the right side. Map 2: Response curves (red line) and their standard deviations (blue shade) showing the effects of (A) elevation, (B) precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18), (C) temperature seasonality (bio14), (D) precipitation seasonality (bio15), (E) Max temperature of warmest month (bio5), and (F) mean temperature of driest quarter (bio9) on the predicted habitat suitability for Aspidura copeiin Sri Lanka.

Sajith

Conservation Urgency

With Sri Lanka’s wet and montane forests under continuous threat, the conservation of species like Aspidura copei has never been more critical. Protecting their habitat would not only safeguard this unique snake but also ensure the preservation of a rich biodiversity that depends on these forests.

The research team hopes that their findings will raise awareness about the plight of this rare species. They are calling for immediate conservation action, including the protection of remaining forest patches and the implementation of sustainable land-use practices.

As Sri Lanka grapples with balancing development and conservation, the fate of species like A. copei hangs in the balance. For now, this elusive snake remains hidden in the shadows of the Sri Lanka’s last remaining forests, a silent reminder of the fragility of the natural world.

Conservation Efforts

The rediscovery of the Cope’s Rough-sided Snake highlights the importance of conservation efforts in Sri Lanka. Protecting the country’s remaining forests is crucial for the survival of this and other endangered species.

The researchers are calling for the establishment of conservation initiatives to safeguard the habitats of A. copei. They also emphasise the need for public awareness campaigns to educate people about the importance of protecting reptiles and their ecosystems.

The rediscovery of the Cope’s Rough-sided Snake is a testament to the resilience of nature. It serves as a reminder that even the most elusive species can be brought back from the brink of extinction with concerted conservation efforts.

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Old Hands slinking away

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It is interesting and revealing to see how the aims of the original Aragalaya protesters who were motivated solely by love of country are being realised surely and steadily. When they raised their cry of GotaGoHome, which was meant for Gotabaya Rajapaksa to relinquish the presidency which he had messed up, Cassandra for one smiled indulgently and said to herself: that will never happen. But what seemed impossible did happen. He did not go to his home however; rather did he slip by sea and air first to the Maldives and then to other South Asian countries, not welcome but tolerated. He returned to a palatial house gifted to him by the government but now we surmise he is back in his own home in Nugegoda. One kudos that can be given to him is that he did not order the shooting of the protestors who climbed the walls of the presidential residence. Either he did not want a bloodbath or he feared the police and army would not do his bidding.

The second demand of the Aragalaya protesters was a system change – the old order of the major parties catching onto the ball of governance and thriving and of course scratching each other’s backs for survival, while the ball passed from one party to another. A system change is also taking place. Started right at the top with the election of the President and choice of PM. System changes have occurred with new appointments made to high admin offices: choices made on meritocracy and suitability to the job in hand. Not family bandyism nor cronyism. More change is in the offing after general elections. The changes already made are favoured by most Sri Lankans.

Another change called for was better representation of the people in the seat of government. The Aragalaya cry was all 225 from Parliament must leave and younger, better educated and committed people replace the old ones. We citizens drew the line at ‘all 225.’ There were many MPs from various parties who were country loyal and not using their seats in parliament as a lucrative money making five years. They contributed much to good governance even during horrendous times for the country. Now that demand too is being fulfilled with so many MPs declaring they are not contesting in November. Thank all the gods for that great mercy to the country. Some were almost decrepit-with-age MPs who had warmed the seats in the Chamber for long and latterly often slumbered through sessions when they were not seeking easy money. There were also those with criminal records and accused of even chain snatching in a railway station. Many, many were poor bods who got multi-rich.

So goodbyes would be said to those who left with perhaps a sigh of relief. But even at the very end of their political careers most of them treat the masses like mindless asses. They pretend heroism and self-sacrifice, causing us Ordinaries to hoot them out.

As reported in The Island of Friday October 11, Wimal Weerawansa did not say that he was not contesting – simple and straight. No, he had to pretend, elocute and lie shamefully, trying to raise himself to heroism. Bah! “Weerawansa said yesterday (10) that his party would not contest the upcoming general election… (they were) doing so to ensure President Anura Kumara Dissanayake would secure the majority in Parliament so that he could govern the country.” Cass held her sides in derisive laughter, both bitter and joyful. She said her schoolgirl chant for a welcome goodbye – GROBR. He has proved himself to be rubbish. What an abysmal puerile statement! What he gets by his stupid statement is derision because there is not one truth in what he says. He and party members would sure not have won seats. AKD and the NPP can very well do without his abstinence from contesting.

Weerawansa makes matters worse by expressing his usual fear of seeing an imperialist or conniving power, more especially American, behind every bush by proclaiming the warning: “both India and the United States would exert immense pressure on the President to implement agreements detrimental to national interest like the 13th Amendment and the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA).” Did he, Weerawansa, always think of the country’s interest? Not one jot, it was all self-interest. Otherwise how explain his palatial private home? The people have confidence in the new Prez and PM after seeing how cordially they were visited officially by ambassadors in this country and the congratulations of Heads of State sent to them both. Also they are leaders who are steady and incorruptible. This we are sure of.

The mystic myth of the bag of gems

Poor, poor Daisy, aunt (punchi amma) of former First Lady Shiranthi Rajapaksa. She was mentioned in the Editorial of the newspaper I quoted above. Her name was dragged in by her nephew – second son of Mahinda and Shiranthi Rajapaksa – when that son was asked how he bought some valuable property in Mount Lavinia. The Editor says Daisy is grandmother of the three second generation brothers in the R clan. She is grandaunt to Namal and his two younger brothers. The story of the sudden riches, however, is ridiculous, again demeaning the citizens of this country to being brainless, insensible asses. How one mysteriously receives a bag of gems which went to purchasing valuable real estate by one of the brothers? That was the explanation given and we the people had to believe it, being considered morons. The bag of gems from heaven perhaps, was led to an argument between the vociferous NPP Wasantha Samarasinghe and SLPP National Organiser Namal R. The latter, too, is not contesting the November elections. Wasantha S is deemed by some mature observers to be too much the radical with militancy inborn. We do not want any force from the NPP members; system change even in the JVP is called for.

Why Cass brought this up is that she is sorry when innocent folk, especially women, are brought into political chicanery. Also it goes to show what mountains of deceit and robbing and grabbing riches were perpetrated by the powers that were, and their progeny. Also how each political party that held power in the last four or five decades took the stance of the three proverbial monkeys and noticed no evil that had taken place or was taking place. They all scratched each other’s backs for mutual safety, as said before. And the country suffered though all politicians averred they were fully loyal to the country and were wholly for the people.

Trump trumpets on

Cass read THE Trump continues spilling nonsense and vile accusations from his uncontrollable maw/muzzle/yap as the American elections get closer and Harris moves ahead. Surprisingly not fast enough considering the South Pole to North Pole difference between them; the lady pitted against a vile, contemptible man. (I prefer the word cad but refrain from writing it down, though the man is one). It’s the white supremacists who are supporting him, hence the distance in the presidential run-up between the two candidates still very small though it’s only a little more than a fortnight to US election day.

Cass quotes for better effect from a news flash she read: “Trump began the week by sharing a xenophobic and false theory that immigrants are genetically predisposed to commit violent crimes, his latest attack on the group as he plans the largest ever deportation of undocumented immigrants in US history.” He averred many were murderers and murder was in their genes. “And we now got a lot of bad genes in our country right now.” Earlier he had borrowed an accusation from Adolf Hitler when he used the dehumanising phrase on migrants: “they are poisoning the blood of America.” Recently he pronounced “big companies have come in to raid and rape out country.” This from the ex-President of the USA, who was found legally liable for sexual abuse of writer Jean Carroll not so long ago. A close clone of then Harrods’ owner Mohamed Al-Fayed,

Can there be a sharper contrast between him and Kamala Harris? And we in Sri Lanka should be so relieved we have pushed for all time a leader and political bods who were similar to Trump. Thank all the gods and our good Karma as a nation to be having a President so different: simple, sympathetic to the poorer person, wanting to do good by the country; and we believe will not have power going to his head, or stooping low to corruption which he derides emphatically.

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Attacks on UN peacekeepers aggravate ‘International Disorder’

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UN peace keeping forces in Lebanon.

The injuring of some UN peacekeepers in South Lebanon recently in what seems to have been a confrontation between Israeli forces and Hezbollah militants could be seen as an aggravation of the current ‘International Disorder’. Given the crucial importance of UN peacekeeping in the world’s war and conflict zones, this incident deserves decrying by the international community.

Whether this attack on the peacekeepers comes to be seen as inadvertent or not, the incident could be considered as taking the current bloodletting in the Middle East to a qualitatively new level as it were. This is on account of the fact that the incident points to a further undermining of International Law by some of the more notorious aggressors of the world.

A comprehensive formal inquiry into the attack by the international community and a naming and shaming of the aggressors concerned would be in order. Hopefully, there would be ready cooperation for this course of action by the external backers of the prominent parties to the relevant armed confrontation. It would be in the vital interests of the permanent members of the UN Security Council (UNSC) in particular to attach great importance to this process, considering the implications for international peace of the incident in question.

Since the escalation of the Middle East conflict over the past year, the attention of the world community has been called in this column to the need to strengthen the UN system. The observer cannot be faulted for seeing the UN as both helpless and hapless in this situation because its intervention in the crisis, for most part, has failed to prove effective. However, it is world stability and peace that is being increasingly jeopardized as a consequence of the UN being rendered helpless by particularly some permanent members of the UNSC.

The most tragic aspect of the runaway violence in the Middle East of today is the mounting loss of civilian lives on both sides of the divide. Next to be decried is the displacement of civilians, the relentless disruption of their normal lives, accompanied by the throttling of the process of providing some of their urgent requirements, such as food and water. Over the months, these aspects of the conflict have been steadily aggravating, rendering the conclusion inescapable that the world is faced with nothing less than a civilizational crisis in the Middle East.

To be sure, such humanitarian catastrophes have been numerous in the course of human history but the world has been in possession of some vital conflict resolution mechanisms since the end of the Second World War in the form of particularly the UN system that possesses the potential to defuse and resolve crises of the kind that are upon the Middle East at present.

The fact that some of those state actors that were party to the creation of the UN system, could be today faulted for getting in the way of enabling the UN to carry out its vital functions in the area of peace-keeping, imparts an ironic dimension to the current Middle East bloodshed.

There is the case of the US, for instance, which is continuing to supply Israel with some of the most lethal weaponry which is today giving the latter the edge in its armed confrontations with its Middle East foes. Besides, the US has, thus far, remained unreservedly almost loyal to Israel, which factor tends to get in the way of Israel seeking a negotiated solution to the conflict. As is known, Israel has received ‘iron-clad’ guarantees on this score from the US.

However, peace-making in the Middle East is a two-way process and Israel cannot be expected to fall in line with the requirements of the international community if its adversaries and their external backers fail to cooperate fully in the peace process as well. That is, the Palestnian side, its armed formations and foreign backers are obliged at this juncture to cooperate in any Middle East peace-making efforts by adopting the relevant policies and mindsets that would be conducive to advancing a negotiated peace.

Unfortunately, the latter factors are not in place in the region. That is, inasmuch as Israel and its Western backers need to take the appropriate steps conducive to peace, the same must be done by the Palestnian armed organizations and their external backers such as Iran. If these conditions are not fully fulfilled, a Middle East peace settlement cannot be expected to materialize in the foreseeable future.

Given this backdrop, one cannot expect the UN to be exceptionally effective in carrying out its peace keeping mandate and other vital obligations. Nor could the world community be expected to come out with quick ways of motivating the permanent members of the UNSC in particular to be doubly ready to breathe, new rejuvenating life into the UN and its major organs. This is because far too many exacting and knotty internal power struggles are preventing the UNSC from living-up to the expectations of pro-peace sections.

As has been suggested before in this column, UN reform promises one way out of this state of global dysfunction. Such reform is necessary since the current UN system is based on a global power distribution that existed soon after World War Two and is no longer representative of present day international power realities. The permanent members of the UNSC, for example, are representatives of this dated power balance.

Accordingly, broad-basing the permanent membership of the UNSC could be one way of resolving the state of deadlock the latter organ often finds itself in when confronted with complex international law and order questions. India, Indonesia and South Africa easily come to mind as suitable nominess for permanent membership of the UNSC in any future reform process.

Besides, BRICS is in a state of expansion and quite a few powers within it could come to be seen by particularly the South as suitable for permanent UNSC membership. But achieving an international consensus on the suitability of some of these powers could prove problematic because they are not all democracies and it is the latter governing system that offers the best prospects of development, correctly understood, within countries. Besides, vibrant democracies do not go to war with each other easily.

Thus, the world community has its work cut out. UN reform would prove a long arduous process, but the world would need to speed-up this process, since the alternative is stepped-up international disorder.

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