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To Leave or to Stay? Years of bad economic policy are killing the aspirations of Sri Lanka’s youth

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By Sathya Karunarathne

Overseas migration for work or study, seems a popular option for Sri Lanka’s youth. Central Bank data shows that in 2019 alone the age group 25-29 recorded the highest number of departures abroad for skilled, semi-skilled, and unskilled employment. This age group also recorded the second-highest number of departures for professional, middle, and clerical level jobs. UNESCO’s Eurostat data collection on education for 2020 states that the total number of Sri Lankan students overseas is 24,118.

A significant segment of the youth population seem dissatisfied with the available opportunities and choices within Sri Lanka.The above numbers reflect their lack of faith in a better and safer society in the years to come. For decades this lack of opportunity was blamed on the war. However, even twelve years after the conclusion of the war little has changed.It is worthy to explore why.

How did we get here?

The island nation’s predicament was in the making for almost 70 years.Consecutive governments since independence have failed to successfully implement policies to deliver economic growth and better living standards.

Trade is the engine of growth but over the last fifteen years Sri Lanka has shied away from trade led growth. Although Sri Lanka was South Asia’s first to embark on economic liberalisation in 1977 and despite the relatively robust economic performance that resulted even during the war years, Sri Lanka began to move away from international trade and investment.

Starting in 2004 import tariffs were raised in an ad hoc fashion to finance a growing defence budget. By 2009 Sri Lanka had one of the world’s most complex import tax regimes made up of para tariffs, (taxes above custom duties) and customs duties. By 2009 the overall protection more than doubled from 13.4 percent to 27.9 percent. Sri Lanka’s import policies by this time were as protective as they had been 20 years ago. While Sri Lanka continued to miss the boat of economic globalisation our East Asian neighbours such as Vietnam and Thailand have risen to prosperity by successfully integrating with global value chains.

This was compounded by an increase in state spending and increased state involvement in the economy. Much of it is financed by debt. Sri Lanka’s state expenditure has ballooned. Due to excessive borrowing, the central government’s highest recurrent expenditure is on interest payments which were at 36 percent in 2020. The country boasts a bloated public sector. The Ministry of Finance states that 30 percent or the second largest of the central government’s recurrent expenditure is spent on salaries and wages. This amounted to a staggering 794.2 billion in 2020 an increase of 15.7 percent from 2019. The Economy Next reported in June that 86 percent of tax revenue went into salaries and pensions in 2020. Moreover, these salaries are only a part of the problem, much expenditure is wasted sustaining mismanagement, corruption, and negligence within some 527 SOEs whose cumulative losses outweigh profits.

Tax revenues have not kept pace with expenditure and the tax system is weighted towards indirect taxes. In 2020 of the share of Sri Lanka’s tax revenue only 22.1 percent was direct taxes with 77.9 percent being indirect. This is highly regressive as a large component of indirect taxes end up on goods and services consumed by the average Sri Lankan imposing a higher burden on low income earners.

Consecutive government’s reluctance to rectify these economic miscalculations through hard reforms have brought the island to a precarious state of high levels of accumulated debt with exponentially growing interest payments.The country now has a debt to GDP ratio of over 101 percent, while foreign reserves have declined to 2.8 billion- sufficient for less than two months of imports.Fitch ratings have estimated that Sri Lank’s foreign currency debt service obligations until 2026 amount to USD 29 billion. Sri Lanka’s debt is on an unsustainable path.

So what’s at stake for young

people in all this?

Sri Lanka’s youth sit helplessly as bungled policy results in the economy tanking, taking them further away from their aspirations, hopes and dreams. Labour force survey for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2020 reported a startling youth unemployment (15-25 years) rate of 25.7 percent. In terms of education level, the highest unemployment rate is reported from the GCE A/L and above group. Although the labour force is educated their main source of employment remains in the informal sector. Nevertheless, skills gap and mismatches have been identified as a major obstacle preventing employment. For example, a 2019 survey estimated a shortage of 12,140 ICT graduates.A World Bank study recognised poor English language skills as another impediment.

In addition to this, COVID exacerbated Sri Lanka’s challenge of providing employment. Unemployment as a percentage of the total labour force increased from 4.5 percent to 5.2 percent between 2019 Q4 – 2020 Q4.19 This coupled with the country’s poor economic conditions will lead to more job losses in the coming months.For instance, with banks rationing letters of credit those employed in the import sector are in panic. Additionally, with prices of essential items increasing the demand for other products and services will decline as people are forced to deprive themselves of small luxuries such as ordering a meal from a restaurant to survive.This poses a threat to business operations and employment.

To curb the outflow of dollars the country has resorted to increased import restrictions.These unsustainable policy responses have robbed the Sri Lankan youth of the luxury to dream and to aspire. Purchasing a car and housing are two such aspirations that are slipping through the fingers of the average Sri Lankan. Vehicle Importers Association of Sri Lanka (VIASL) stated that the price of certain vehicles in the local market has increased by around Rs.10 million due to import restrictions.20 A 2017/2018 Wagon R which was sold at Rs.3.5 million is now being sold at Rs.6 million. Those building or repairing houses face difficulty as cement importers have limited the release of cement to the market due to partial suspension of imports and price controls resulting in severe shortages. This coupled with high tariffs on construction material will further contribute to making the construction of a house an illusion to the middle-class Sri Lankan.

Even the escape routes of Sri Lanka are closing. Students aspiring to leave the country for higher education fear banks may not issue dollars to finance their stay. Migrants are unable to take their savings with them meaning they face a much harder start in another country- last month the Central Bank issued a new order under the Foreign Exchange Act declaring limits on migration allowances26. Social media is swamped with infuriated complaints on price hikes and scarcity of essentials such as medicine in midst of a pandemic.

It is safe to conclude that young people have found themselves in a perilous socio economic fabric with looming uncertainty.

To leave or to stay?

If the government is to retain young people they must be provided with indications of stability and hope. Excessive reliance on import restrictions as a policy solution to the foreign exchange crisis at hand exhibits the government’s reluctance to implement painful but necessary reforms. Stability and hope lie in reforms the politicians are resistant to.

Increasing sources of government revenue, re-prioritising government expenditure, limiting intervention, relying on markets and recognizing the vitality of trade in a globalised economy is Sri Lanka’s road to prosperity. It will not be easy or painless, the accumulated policy mistakes of the past two decades require some very hard reforms but it is the only sustainable way out of the current mess.

Sri Lanka faces a serious crisis but it presents an opportunity to learn from the mistakes of the past and to rebuild the island’s institutions along with the hopes and dreams of the young.

Sathya Karunarathne is the Research Analyst at the Advocata Institute and can be contacted at sathya@advocata.org. Learn more about Advocata’s work at www.advocata.org. The opinions expressed are the author’s own views. They may not necessarily reflect the views of the Advocata Institute, or anyone affiliated with the institute.



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Mention of possible future inflation dampens investor appetite

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By Hiran H. Senewiratne

Stock investors were worried yesterday following Central Bank Governor Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe’s mention at the CBSL monthly monetary policy review meet of possible future inflation pressures that may impact the economy.

The All Share Price Index went down by 4.89 points, while the S and P SL20 rose by 16.1 points. Turnover stood at Rs 1.55 billion with four crossings.

Those crossings were; Access Engineering crossed 1.5 million shares to the tune of Rs 119.8 million; its shares traded at Rs 79.60, Sampath Bank 450,000 shares crossed tfor Rs 63 million; its shares sold at Rs 140, Sunshine Holdings 750,000 shares crossed to the tune of Rs 21.4 million; its shares traded at Rs 28.50 and Softlogic Life 290,000 shares crossed for Rs 20.4 million; its shares sold at Rs 70.40.

In the retail market companies that mainly contributed to the turnover were: Access Engineering Rs 150 million (1.9 million shares traded), JKH Rs 113 million (six million shares traded), Softlogic Life Rs 80 million (one million shares traded), Softlogic Capital Rs 64.7 million (6.7 million shares traded), Lanka Realty Rs 64.3 million (1.3 million shares traded), Colombo Dockyard Rs 53.7 million (452,000 shares traded) and Sierra Cables Rs 50 million (1.43 million shares traded). During the day 58.9 million share volumes changed hands in 13536 transactions.

It is said that mixed market reactions were noted especially in manufacturing while banking, insurance and FMCG sectors performed well. Further, construction sector counters, especially Access Engineering, and banking sector counters, especially Sampath Bank, performed well.

People’s Leasing & Finance PLC announced its allotment basis for 100 million listed debentures it issued to raise Rs 10 billion, after receiving applications for the full amount.

Yesterday the rupee was quoted at Rs 330.68/75 to the US dollar in the spot market from Rs 330.70/90 the previous day, while bond yields were quoted steady to lower, dealers said.

An auction of Rs 80,000 million Treasury bills was ongoing.

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Beyond El Niño: Building lasting climate resilience in Sri Lanka’s plantations

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Climate resilience has become the defining test of this El Niño year for Sri Lanka’s plantation sector. The National Disaster Relief Services Centre says over 81,000 people across 25,563 families in seven districts, Ampara, Polonnaruwa, Batticaloa, Badulla, Monaragala, Hambantota and Ratnapura, have been affected by the dry weather linked to the phenomenon. The government has raised daily water allocations from six to 15 litres per person, deployed 324 water bowsers, and set aside Rs. 4.8 billion for relief.

Several of the worst hit districts sit close to plantation country, a reminder that El Niño doesn’t stop at the edge of an estate. It touches every elevation, from low grown tea and rubber around Ratnapura and Galle, through the mid grown estates of Kandy, to the high grown gardens of Nuwara Eliya and Badulla. Low grown areas feel it fastest, since prolonged heat and soil moisture loss can hit yields within weeks. High grown tea is more sheltered from dry spells but carries its own slow burning risk from rising night temperatures.

Professor Buddhi Marambe, Senior Professor of Crop Science at the University of Peradeniya, draws a distinction often lost in public conversation. “El Niño is not caused by climate change. It is a natural climate variability that has occurred for hundreds of years,” he says. “But that doesn’t mean resilience building in our agricultural systems isn’t helping. It directly assists in mitigating the impacts of extreme events like El Niño.” That resilience takes time to build. The Tea Research Institute released Sri Lanka’s first drought tolerant tea cultivar only in 2016, after years of work. “It normally takes about 25 years to develop a new tea cultivar,” Marambe notes, underlining why the Planters’ Association keeps pressing for sustained, long term investment in plantation research rather than short funding cycles.

That long view is already showing up on the ground. At Udapussellawa Plantations PLC, the response to the prevailing drought has been an integrated field level programme rather than a single fix. Mother leaf plucking was made mandatory to protect bushes from moisture stress, foliar bio-fertiliser applications were intensified, and water was diverted to the worst affected fields. Shade cover was strengthened, potassium was applied to help regulate water loss through the stomata, and drains were cut in advance of the dry spell to hold moisture in the root zone. Rooftop solar has also been installed, easing pressure on hydro power so that conserved water can flow downstream for drinking and irrigation.

At Browns Plantations’ Maturata region estates, resilience has been built across water, soil and disaster planning together. Water bowsers and sprinkler systems now serve new clearings and nurseries, while thatching in young tea fields conserves soil moisture. Shade lopping and pruning have both been suspended during the dry period to protect plant health, and foliar potassium is being used as an immediate agronomic measure. On the disaster side, vulnerable housing and landslide prone locations are monitored continuously and assessed against the National Building Research Institute (NBRI) recommendations, with relocation planned in consultation with the relevant authorities.

Kelani Valley Plantations PLC has taken the longest horizon, treating climate resilience as something built years ahead of any single crisis. Its Agroforestry Pilot at Halgolla Estate, developed with Sri Lankan and international scientists, layers vegetation to deliver soil conservation, water retention and additional income, and is now being replicated across other estates. Soil and water measures such as soak pits, on site ponds and native tree planting support rainfall infiltration, while the company’s Surakimu Ganga programme has planted more than 10,000 native trees in the Kelani River basin, with a survival rate above 99 percent. KVPL also became the world’s first plantation company, and Halgolla the world’s first tea estate, to achieve regenagri certification, work underpinned by long standing research partnerships with the University of Peradeniya, Wageningen University and IUCN Sri Lanka.

Horana Plantations PLC, part of the Hayleys Plantation Sector, shows how technology is closing the same gap. Weather stations installed with the Arthur C. Clarke Institute feed early alerts on temperature, rainfall and soil moisture, drone mapping flags nutrient and pest problems, and smart fertigation cuts water waste in coffee. Solar installations and mini hydro plants generated 1,243 MWh last year, and the TeaShade Carbon Project is Sri Lanka’s first plantation scheme registered under the Verified Carbon Standard.

Taken together, these examples show a sector that is not waiting for policy to catch up before acting. Regional Plantation Companies (RPC’s) have, on their own initiative, built research partnerships, invested in monitoring technology and renewable energy, and embedded climate planning into daily estate management, often years ahead of national frameworks reaching the ground. Professor Marambe’s own prescription, continuous capacity building tied to economic reality, is one RPCs are already living out: “People respond when they understand the real economic risk. Every plantation crop is an export earner.” The response to El Niño is proof that climate resilience is already a core business strategy, and the strongest case yet for greater government and institutional support to help scale that work further, said Lalith Obeyesekere, Secretary General of the Planters’ Association of Ceylon.

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LAUGFS Holdings appoints Dhanusha Muthukumarana Group Managing Director and Group Chief Executive Officer

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Dhanusha Muthukumarana

LAUGFS Holdings Limited has appointed Dhanusha Muthukumarana as Group Managing Director and Group Chief Executive Officer, effective 1st October 2026. Muthukumarana brings a strong background in engineering, technology, professional leadership and entrepreneurship. The appointment reflects the Group’s focus on strengthening leadership, accelerating business transformation and driving sustainable growth across its diversified portfolio.

Muthukumarana is an award-winning professional with more than 26 years of experience across banking and finance, consumer goods, manufacturing, healthcare, logistics, enterprise software and technology consulting, and diversified businesses. He has held senior leadership roles in Sri Lankan and international organisations, including Fortune 500 companies, building expertise in business transformation, enterprise architecture, strategic planning and innovation.

Throughout his career, he has led complex transformation initiatives, improved business operations and aligned technology and operations with corporate strategy. He brings this combination of strategic, commercial and technology leadership to LAUGFS as the Group pursues operational excellence, long-term value creation and value capture.

Muthukumarana is an executive alumnus of the University of Oxford (Saïd Business School), United Kingdom, where he successfully completed his education in Strategic Innovation and ranked among the top performers in his cohort. He holds a Master of Business Administration (MBA) from the Postgraduate Institute of Management (PIM), University of Sri Jayewardenepura, and possesses postgraduate qualifications in Information Technology. He is currently pursuing postgraduate studies in Economics.

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