Features
The questionable wisdom for pursuing LNG
by Eng Parakrama Jayasinghe
I have been advocating the need for a rational evaluation of the need if any, and the wisdom of adopting LNG as an option for our energy needs, since 2019. The following have been published in the national papers.
The LNG Saga
–http://epaper.island.lk/paper/2021/10/04
The LNG Option –Need for a deeper re-think urgently – Dec 4, 2019
http://island.lk/index.php?page_cat=article-details&page=article-details&code_title=215420#
What do we need? LNG or NG or neither? – Nov 8, 2019
I am led to wonder if I have been just wasting my time and efforts, judging from the recent events, as we hear the same inadequately analyzed and ill conceived and outdated proposals being aggressively pursued in total disregard to the significant changes which have been happening throughout the world in the interim. Now a cabinet paper has been submitted citing massive savings, which a commentator has claimed to be overstated by 100% using the data in the same expert report, based on which the Cabinet Paper has been drafted.
LNG switch: Cabinet paper contains flawed projected savings | Print Edition – The Sunday Times, Sri Lanka
If this is true, it would only continue the familiar trend ever since the idea was first put forward many years ago, cherry picking of data to fit the notion including patently erroneous or unsubstantiated assumptions.
It will be recalled that the use of LNG as a source of fuel for power generation was proposed as a transitional fuel about ten years ago. Since no one wanted to openly object to the growing and successful development of renewable energy, LNG was proposed to be the intermediate solution until the solar and wind energy became financially viable and technically reliable. That was over ten years ago.
However, the fact that much has changed even in Sri Lanka, in the adoption of both these technologies and it is now universally accepted that Renewable Energy is more economical than any fossil fuel based power in addition to being environmentally benign. There are dozens of references, including the International Energy Agency ( https://www.iea.org/ ) confirming this status.
But unfortunately, the same old outdated arguments are being trotted forward in total disregard to the much changed ground realities. The primary culprit is the Ceylon Electricity Board planners who find it impossible to get rid of their bias for continued dependence on imported fossil fuels and the prejudice against the indigenous renewable energy (RE) resources contrary to the often repeated assurance of their support for the development of RE. Perhaps due to the fear of losing their strangle hold on the electricity sector as the state monopoly or some other agendas which I will leave the readers to judge.
A few years ago the attraction of LNG was understandable, both due to the fact that the world LNG prices were at a historical low, and there was hope of our own Natural Gas in the Mannar basin being developed, so that any local investments to adopt the LNG option both in way of the infrastructure and generation facilities appeared justifiable.
The circumstances have changed so much that such justification can no longer be done with the much increased price of LNG and the highly depreciated Rupee, proving once more the danger of dependence on imported fossil fuels, on supply of which we have no control on one side and the continued enhanced drain of FOREX on the other. The long petrol and gas queues and hours long power cuts not long ago were the direct result of such dependence. Replacing oil with LNG is certainly not the solution now, when the alternatives have proven commercially viable even in Sri Lanka and in the rest of the world .
But does the CEB or their consultants or their masters in the Ministry of Power and the government , give any consideration to these altered circumstances, let alone the undeniable and encouraging progress made in the adoption of RE resources which do not require any imported fuels and are cheaper and environmentally benign? It is a great national tragedy that this is hardly the case.
The present government of the NPP, appears to have been sold the same recipe of the now mythical essential need and the value of LNG, as even their policy documents have listed LNG as the option for the future.
The CEB with the support of the newly appointed Minister and the Secretary has pounced upon this as an imperative in total disregard for the other established policies of
· Reaching 70% RE contribution by 2030 and Carbon neutrality by 2050
· Adopting least economic cost mode of generation
· None dependence on imported energy sources for future energy security and thereby the National Security
· Cease building of new coal-fired power plants. A new policy is added
· New addition of firm capacity will be from clean energy sources such as re-gasified liquefied natural gas (R-LNG).
This last statement is highly contestable as LNG is not clean in consideration of the entire supply chain and is reported to be 33% higher emitter of Carbon Dioxide than coal.
The falsity and Lack of Coherence of CEB Arguments in support
And CEB continues to pursue their lopsided arguments and have proposed addition of over 3,500 MW of LNG based power in their Long Term Generation Plan from 2025 to 2044. Now the Chairman has advocated to the government, that the stalled tender for the development of a Floating Storage and Re-Gasification Unit ( FSRU) be reactivated. But no mention has been made of any arrangement to source LNG and the reliability of such supplies in the long term, which one would have thought is the primary requirement before any steps are taken in building user end facilities.
Sri Lanka certainly cannot claim to be out of bankruptcy, although some measure of stability has been attained only by postponing the repayment of massive amount of foreign loans, which will come to haunt us in the near future as close as 2028. Thus, understandably the government is very keen to increase the FOREX earnings to reduce the continuing gap between cost of imports and the export earnings. Therefore, without a much broader and deeper analysis of the claimed advantages and savings and as the panaceas for resolving the technical issues faced by the CEB, a hasty decision to opt for addition of LNG could hardly be considered wise.
This is a matter of great national concern and such a decision which will only exacerbate the Balance of Payments cannot be left to the CEB or even the Ministry of Energy without intense in-depth analysis . This should cover all aspects of costs , reliability in the long term of supplies and costs and other economic considerations approved after a much wider stakeholder consultation. Hitherto there has never been such a comprehensive study or consultation. The present promise of lower cost of generation yet to be proven and in total disregard to the above issues is certainly not acceptable.
The issues which a has come to light both during the earlier instances when such hasty decisions were mooted and also in the analysis of the Draft Long Term Generation Expansion Plan 2025-2044 are discussed below.
· The cost of LNG based power generation.
This must include not only the cost of the LNG itself but also all other costs involved in the deployment of the FSRU and regassification process and the piping of the re-gassified LNG to the coast as well as the added pipe network required to reach the power plant. While some numbers can be quoted on the world prices of LNG and the historical trends, there are no established costs of the other aspects. The reality in respect of the world prices then and now are shown below .
The change in world market price of LG and its impact on Sri Lanka can be compared as below
As such how can anyone even contemplate a flat trajectory for future prices as childishly shown in the above chart used in the LTEGP? Even a simple private businessman would not plan any future venture based on such impossible projections. But then the CEB is not held responsible for any disasters they have been causing over the years and plans to plunge the entire country to anther disaster.

Fig 3 – CEB prediction of LNG prices The change in world market price of LG and its impact on Sri Lanka can be compared as below
The LTGEP reveals that that the annual natural gas consumption will remain at a very low level (below 0.6 MTPA) till 2035. This will add a substantial cost to the capacity charge of the FSRU which has to be accounted for when the total LNG fuel costs are calculated and thus further increase the cost of generation.
The demand will remain low at about 0.6 MTPA which is well below the capacity of a FSRU that would interest any investor. There is an attempt to blow this up by planning totally unacceptable plans to increase demand by converting the aging plants at Kelanitissa and even to use if for transport.
It is quite unlikely that any investors would be interested in catering to such low volumes unless there is provision for substantial premiums on the sale price. This added to the current East Asia price of $ 15.04 plus the other charges have already made this option none viable. Using even the declared price of $ 11.90 the cost of generation would be over Rs 55.00 /kWh. https://view.argusmedia.com
For Sri Lanka , the governing factor is the cost of generation which must include the entire supply chain and infra structure costs development and operation, including any take or pay provisions or premiums for lower scope of supplies. These considerations have been swept under the carpet by erroneous data and plainly misleading numbers such as assuming that the price of LNG will be none variable in the future. This was done in case of coal and is still being practiced.
Promise of a Clean Fuel
It is futile to try and paint LNG as clean and low in carbon emission. The carbon emission has to be gauged across the entire supply chain. There are studies to say that LNG is has 33% higher carbon emission than coal.
Green washed: LNG emits 33% more carbon than coal, new report finds
As such the promise of LNG already fails on both counts based on which it has been promoted. That of economical cost of generation and the green house emissions. This is without any consideration of the totally avoidable additional drain of foreign exchange.
What does the CEB expects to gain by this addition of LNG?
The only reason for the CEB to pursue this goal is only to perpetuate the dependence on imported fossil fuels, now that their former goal of adding more coal power has been soundly rejected even by the previous government. There is no way that this can be considered a progressive move on one hand because of the continued drain on foreign exchange for the import of LNG and the impact on the long term energy security of the country with dependence on a source completely outside the control of Sri Lanka.
They hide these dangers by citing issues of a need for Base Load power and spinning reserves and the none firm nature of the two renewable energy sourced of solar and wind.
All these problems have been well resolved by other countries and the CEB chooses to turn a blind eye to promote this nationally disastrous move even going to the extent of citing patently false data.
The Ministry and the Government must take urgent action to understand the truth and prevent this disaster being perpetuated.
Conclusion
The Government has several promises to keep.
· Build up the FOREX reserves to face the debt repayment challenge in 2028
· Reduce the consumer tariff by 35%.
Both these will be highly doubt full if the CEB is continued these unviable proposals. Their claim of inability to reduce the consumer tariff was soundly debunked by highly researched presentations made during the recent public consultations. It was also pointed out that the consumer tariff can be reduced significantly reduced by eliminating the use of oil for power generation as early as possible. The CEB now proposes to replace such positive trend by committing the country to perhaps even more damaging introduction of LNG.
The CEB is driven only by their inability and unwillingness to change their Frog in The Well attitude and assimilate the more progressive developments in the RE sector in the best interests of Sri Lanka and its citizens. The question has to be asked, is the CEB or even the Ministry of Energy can be trusted to make such decisions which affects the entire country without a wide ranging public consultation?
The Ministry and the Govt should at least now officially assign the responsibility and accountability of achieving the national objectives, of much reduced consumer tariff and goal of reaching the 70% RE target by year 2030.
This is the right of the People of Sri Lanka , who are the true owners of the Energy Sector and Resources and are the major Stake Holder and not the CEB
Features
Iain Douglas-Hamilton: Science, courage, and the battle for elephants
Passing of Iain Douglas-Hamilton, a man who dedicated his life to conservation and whose life’s work leaves a lasting impact on our appreciation for, and understanding of, elephants.
– Prince William
In Africa on 08 December, 2025, when the sun slipped below the horizon, it did not only give an end for that day, but it also marked the end of a man whose knowledge and courage saved Africa’s elephants. This gentleman was none other than Iain Douglas-Hamilton! There is a beautiful African proverb that says, “When an old man dies, a library burns to the ground,” and it resonates well with Iain’s demise.
Iain pioneered behaviour research on elephants, and he was the first to highlight the elephant poaching crisis in Africa. Also, the adventures he went through to save the elephants will inspire generations.
From Oxford to Africa

The Life of the Last Proboscideans: Elephants”, authored by Muthukumarana, stands as an awardwinning, comprehensive study that integrates elephant evolution, anthropology, biology, behaviour, and conservation science.
Iain was born on 16 August, 1942, into an aristocratic family, the son of Lord David Douglas-Hamilton and Ann Prunella Stack. His parents were a distinguished couple in Britain: his father, a Scottish nobleman, served as a squadron leader in the Royal Air Force, while his mother was a pioneering figure in physical fitness and a prominent advocate for women’s rights. After finishing his school, Iain was admitted to Oxford University to study zoology. At the age of 23, for his PhD, Iain travelled to Tanzania to study the behaviour of elephants at Lake Manyara National Park. This was a daring and humble beginning that would change how the world understood elephants. He learnt to recognise individual animals based on their tusks and ears. He observed their family bonds, their grief, and their intelligence. These findings made the scientific community identify elephants as sentimental beings. During this period, he married Oria Rocco, and together they had two children, Saba and Mara.
Battle for the elephants
When ivory poaching swept across Africa and devastated elephant populations, Iain did not withdraw in despair. He confronted the crisis head-on, guided by science, rigorous data, and unwavering resolve. Through extensive aerial counts and field studies, he laid bare the scale of the tragedy—revealing that Africa’s elephant numbers had collapsed from an estimated 1.3 million to just about 600,000 in little more than 10 years.
It was largely thanks to his work that the global community saw—perhaps for the first time—the full scope of the crisis. His efforts played a pivotal role in pushing forward the 1989 international ban on ivory trade, a landmark moment for wildlife conservation.
In 1993, Iain founded Save the Elephants (STE), an organisation that would become the heart of elephant conservation efforts in Kenya and across Africa.
At STE, he pioneered the use of GPS-tracking and aerial survey techniques to monitor elephant movements, protect them from poaching, and plan safe corridors for them in increasingly human-dominated landscapes. These methods have since become standard tools in wildlife conservation worldwide.
Beyond technology and science, Iain was a mentor. He inspired — and continues to inspire — generations of conservationists, researchers, and everyday people who care deeply about wildlife. Through his books (such as Among the Elephants and Battle for the Elephants), documentaries, lectures, and personal example, he invited the world to see elephants not as trophies or commodities, but as sentient beings — worthy of awe, study, and protection.
Iain and Sri Lanka
In 2003 Iain came to Sri Lanka for the first time to attend the “Symposium on Human-Elephant Relationships and Conflict” as the keynote speaker. On that day he concluded his address by saying, “When I hear the talk of Problem Animal Control, I always wonder whether our species has the capacity for its own self-regulation or Problem Human Control in a humane and wise manner. HEC stands for Human Elephant Conflict, one of our focuses of this conference. How I wish it could come to stand for Human Elephant Coexistence, based on a recognition that other beings also need their space to live in. We are a long way from that, but I am sure that many of the findings of the talented body of researchers in this room will begin a stepwise progress in answering some of these fundamental problems.”
A few years ago Iain’s organisation STE collaborated with the Sri Lankan Wildlife Conservation Society for research activities aimed at reducing human-elephant conflict. In 2016 when the Sri Lankan government was going to destroy the confiscated illegal African elephant ivory, I made a request for Iain to write a congratulatory message to Sri Lanka’s President and Prime Minister for the wise decision they had taken. Iain sent me a four-page meaningful letter written by him, and he was joined by 18 other conservation organisations. In his letter he mentioned, “I want to offer my congratulations to the government of Sri Lanka for the laudable decision to destroy ivory stocks…” Sri Lanka is sending a message to the world that ivory should be without worth; elephants have value when alive. This is a critical message to send, particularly to the religious world, as they are sensitised about the threat religious ivory poses to elephant populations in Africa.”
Fortunately, Iain’s conservation is taken up by his children, especially his eldest daughter, Saba. In 2016 and 2024 she came to Sri Lanka for a lecture hosted by the Galle Literary Festival. Also in 2019, for the Wildlife and Nature Protection Society’s 125th Anniversary, Saba and her husband visited a gala dinner that was held to fundraise for conservation projects.
A difficult path
Iain’s path was never easy. He endured personal peril many times: from hostile terrain and unpredictable wild animals to being shot at by poachers while conducting aerial patrols over war-torn national parks.
Yet despite the danger, despite setbacks — flooded camps, lost data, shifting political tides — his conviction never wavered. His was a life marked by resilience. He refused complacency. He refused to surrender. And through every hardship, he remembered why he began: to give elephants a future.
Iain was also a pilot, and as the old English saying goes, “Pilots don’t die; they simply fly higher.” In that spirit, I wish the same peaceful ascent for Iain. My heartfelt condolences are with Iain’s family.
by Tharindu Muthukumarana ✍️
tharinduele@gmail.com
(Author of the award-winning book “The Life of Last Proboscideans: Elephants”)
Features
Awesome power of gratitude
When you hear the word gratitude the first impression you get is a tail-wagging dog. If you feed a dog one day, it will wag its tail even if you meet it after a few years. That is gratitude. In addition, dogs are great teachers. They are at home in the world. They live in the moment and they force us to stay with them. Dogs love us and remain grateful unconditionally not for our bodies or bank accounts.
Small children are taught to say ‘Thank you’ for any favour they receive from others. They do not know that the two words can have positive effects on your health and the well-being of others.
Some time ago I had to call emergency services as I found one of my family members was unconscious. Within minutes an ambulance arrived and the paramedics whisked the patient away to the nearest hospital. He was in intensive care for a few days and returned home. We were marvelled at the impact of a handful of strangers who took charge of the patient at a critical time. I immediately wrote thank you notes to those who saved the patient’s life. I knew that it was a small gesture on my part. However, it was the only way I could express my gratitude to a dedicated team.
Selfless people
Later I realized that there are a large number of selfless people who do life-saving work, but they never expect anything in return. How volunteers saved a large number of flood victims is a case in point. The flood victims may not have expressed their gratitude in so many words. However, they would have felt a deep sense of gratitude to the volunteers who saved them.
Why do people come forward to help those facing natural disasters and other dangerous situations? A recent research in the United States shows that sharing thoughts of gratitude and performing acts of kindness can boost your mood and have other positive effects on your health. Almost all religions teach that gratitude does have a good impact on your happiness. Professor of Psychology Willibald Ruch says that gratitude is among the top five predictors of happiness.
By showing gratitude you can make positive changes in your own life. If you feel a sense of gratitude whenever you receive something that is good for you, it will be a healthy sign. You cannot get such a feeling in a vacuum because others have to play their roles. They can be your loved ones, friends, strangers or even people in authority. Gratitude is how you relate to them when you see yourself in connection with things larger than yourself.
Gratification lifestyle
Strangely, many people do not pause to appreciate what others are doing for them. For this you have to blame your gratification lifestyle. With the popularity of social media the young people feel that they are the centre of the universe. They seem to think there is no necessity to thank those who help them.
Why should we thank others even for minor favours? Recent studies show that those who express gratitude increase their own happiness levels. They also lower their blood pressure levels to a great extent. On the other hand, they will be able to sleep well and improve their relationships. They are also less affected by pain because of the positive impact on their depression.
They may not know that positive effects of gratitude are long lasting. Research shows that those who write thank you notes improve their mental health. There was also a decrease in their bodily pains. What is more, they feel more energetic in completing their daily activities. Unfortunately, schools and universities do not teach the value of gratitude since it is fairly a new field of study. Researchers are still trying to find out its cause and effect relationship. We know that those who perform acts of gratitude can sleep well. However, we do not know the reason for it. Researchers are wondering whether gratitude leads to better sleep or sleep leads to more gratitude. They also probe whether there is another variable that leads to gratitude and improved sleep.
Children
Despite such controversies, we know for certain that gratitude can benefit people at any stage of life. Most elderly people remain grateful for their children and grandchildren who support them. Elderly people cannot regain their physical strength or mental agility. Therefore they focus on gratitude. They are thankful to their children and grandchildren for their present situation.
How do gratitude recipients react? Research shows that those who receive thank you notes or acts of kindness experience positive emotions. You feel happy when someone holds a door open for you. Similarly, you are happy if you receive some unexpected help. Recently I was pleasantly surprised to see that someone has credited a big sum of money to my bank account in appreciation of a small favour I had done.
When you thank someone they are more likely to return the favour or pay kindness forward. Psychologically, people feel very happy when you thank them. However, some people hesitate to say thank you. The give-and-take of gratitude deepens relationships. In a close relationship husbands and wives do not thank each other. However, there are other ways of showing gratitude. A wife can make her husband feel appreciated. Such a feeling of appreciation will go a long way to strengthen their relationship.
Some people are ungrateful by nature. However, they can learn the art of being grateful. Such people will do well to maintain a gratitude journal. It is something similar to Pinpotha maintained by Buddhists in the past. They can record positive events in the journal. At the beginning this may not be easy. With practice, however, you can do it well. I knew of a man who kept a gratitude journal. Although his family members laughed at him, he did not give up the habit. When he was diagnosed with a terminal disease he used to read his gratitude journal very happily.
By R.S. Karunaratne ✍️
Features
Another Christmas, Another Disaster, Another Recovery Mountain to Climb
The 2004 Asian Tsunami erupted the day after Christmas. Like the Boxing Day Test Match in Brisbane, it was a boxing day bolt for Indonesia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, India and Maldives. Twenty one years later, in 2025, multiple Asian cyclones hit almost all the old victims and added a few more, including Malayasia, Vietnam and Cambodia. Indonesia and Sri Lanka were hit hard both times. Unlike the 2004 Tsunami, the 2025 cyclones made landfalls weeks before Christmas, during the Christian Season of Advent, the four-week period before Christmas preparing for the arrival of the Messiah. An ominously adventus manifestation of the nature’s fury.
Yet it was not the “day of wrath and doom impending … heaven and earth in ashes ending” – heavenly punishment for government lying, as an opposition politician ignorantly asserted. By that token, the gods must have opted to punish half a dozen other Asian countries for the NPP government’s lying in Sri Lanka. Or all those governments have been caught lying. Everyone is caught and punished for lying, except the world’s Commander in Chief for lying – Donald J. Trump. But as of late and none too sooner, President Trump is getting his punishment in spades. Who would have thought?
In fairness, even the Catholic Church has banished its old hymn of wrath (Dies irae, dies illa) that used to be sung at funerals from its current Missals; and it has on offer, many other hymns of peace and joy, especially befitting the Christmas season. Although this year’s Christmas comes after weeks of havoc caused by cyclonic storms and torrential rains, the spirit of the season, both in its religious and secular senses, will hopefully provide some solace for those still suffering and some optimism to everyone who is trying to uplift the country from its overflowing waterways and sliding slopes.
As the scale of devastation goes, no natural disaster likely will surpass the human fatalities that the 2004 Tsunami caused. But the spread and scale of this year’s cyclone destruction, especially the destruction of the island’s land-forms and its infrastructure assets, are, in my view, quite unprecedented. The scale of the disaster would finally seem to have sunk into the nation’s political skulls after a few weeks of cacophonic howlers – asking who knew and did what and when. The quest for instant solutions and the insistence that the government should somehow find them immediately are no longer as vehement and voluble as they were when they first emerged.
NBRO and Landslides
But there is understandable frustration and even fear all around, including among government ministers. To wit, the reported frustration of Agriculture Minister K.D. Lalkantha at the alleged inability of the National Building Research Organization (NBRO) to provide more specific directions in landslide warnings instead of issuing blanket ‘Level 3 Red Alerts’ covering whole administrative divisions in the Central Province, especially in the Kandy District. “We can’t relocate all 20 divisional secretariats” in the Kandy District, the Minister told the media a few weeks ago. His frustration is understandable, but expecting NBRO to provide political leaders with precise locations and certainty of landslides or no landslides is a tall ask and the task is fraught with many challenges.
In fairness to NBRO and its Engineers, their competence and their responses to the current calamity have been very impressive. It is not the fault of the NBRO that local disasters could not be prevented, and people could not be warned sufficiently in advance to evacuate and avoid being at the epicentre of landslides. The intensity of landslides this year is really a function of the intensity and persistence of rainfall this season, for the occurrence of landslides in Sri Lanka is very directly co-related to the amount of rainfall. The rainfall during this disaster season has been simply relentless.
Evacuation, the ready remedy, is easier said than socially and politically done. Minister Lal Kantha was exasperated at the prospect of evacuating whole divisional secretariats. This was after multiple landslides and the tragedies and disasters they caused. Imagine anybody seriously listening to NBRO’s pleas or warnings to evacuate before any drop of rainwater has fallen, not to mention a single landslide. Ignoring weather warnings is not peculiar to Sri Lanka, but a universal trait of social inertia.
I just lauded NBRO’s competence and expertise. That is because of the excellent database the NBRO professionals have compiled, delineating landslide zones and demarcating them based on their vulnerability for slope failure. They have also identified the main factors causing landslides, undertaken slope stabilization measures where feasible, and developed preventative and mitigative measures to deal with landslide occurrences.
The NBRO has been around since the 1980s, when its pioneers supplemented the work of Prof. Thurairajah at Peradeniya E’Fac in studying the Hantana hill slopes where the NHDA was undertaking a large housing scheme. As someone who was involved in the Hantana project, I have often thought that the initiation of the NBRO could be deemed one of the positive legacies of then Housing Ministry Secretary R. Paskaralingam.
Be that as it may, the NBRO it has been tracking and analyzing landslides in Sri Lanka for nearly three decades, and would seem to have come of age in landslides expertise with its work following 2016 Aranayake Landslide Disaster in the Kegalle District. Technically, the Aranayake disaster is a remarkable phenomenon and it is known as a “rain-induced rapid long-travelling landslide” (RRLL). In Kegalle the 2016 RRLL carried “a fluidized landslide mass over a distance of 2 km” and caused the death of 125 people. International technical collaboration following the disaster produced significant research work and the start of a five-year research project (from 2020) in partnership with the International Consortium on Landslides (ICL). The main purpose of the project is to improve on the early warning systems that NBRO has been developing and using since 2007.
Sri Lankan landslides are rain induced and occur in hilly and mountainous areas where there is rapid weathering of rock into surface soil deposits. Landslide locations are invariably in the wet zone of the country, in 13 districts, in six provinces (viz., the Central, Sabaragamuwa, Uva, Northwestern, Western and Southern, provinces). The Figure below (from NBRO’s literature) shows the number of landslides and fatalities every year between 2003 and 2021.
Based on the graphics shown, there would have been about 5,000 landslides and slope failures with nearly 1,000 deaths over 19 years between 2003 and 2021. Every year there was some landslide or slope failure activity. One notable feature is that there have been more deaths with fewer landslides and vice-versa in particular years. In 2018, there were no deaths when the highest number (1,250) of landslides and slope failures occurred that year. Although the largest number in an year, the landslides in 2018 could have been minor and occurred in unpopulated areas. The reasons for more deaths in, say, 2016 (150) or 2017 (250+), could be their location, population density and the severity of specific landslides.
NBRO’s landslide early warning system is based on three components: (1) Predicting rainfall intensity and monitoring water pressure build up in landslide areas; (2) Monitoring and observing signs of soil movement and slope instability in vulnerable areas; and (3) Communicating landslide risk level and appropriate warning to civil authorities and the local public. The general warnings to Watch (Yellow), be Alert (Brown), or Evacuate (Red) are respectively based on the anticipated rainfall intensities, viz., 75 mm/day, 100 mm/day; and 150 mm/day or 100 mm/hr. My understanding is that over the years, NBRO has established its local presence in vulnerable areas to better communicate with the local population the risk levels and timely action.
Besides Landslides
This year, the rain has been relentless with short-term intensities often exceeding the once per 100-year rainfall. This is now a fact of life in the era of climate change. Added to this was cyclone Ditwah and its unique meteorology and trajectory – from south to north rather than northeast to southwest. The cyclone started with a disturbance southwest of Sri Lanka in the Arabian Sea, traversed around the southern coast from west to east to southeast in the Bay of Bengal, and then cut a wide swath from south to north through the entire easterly half of the island. The origin and the trajectory of the cyclone are also attributed to climate change and changes in the Arabian Sea. The upshot again is unpredictability.
Besides landslides, the rainfall this season has inundated and impacted practically every watershed in the country, literally sweeping away roads, bridges, tanks, canals, and small dams in their hundreds or several hundreds. The longitudinal sinking of the Colombo-Kandy Road in the Kadugannawa area seems quite unparalleled and this may not be the only location that such a shearing may have occurred. The damages are so extensive and it is beyond Sri Lanka’s capacity, and the single-term capacity of any government, to undertake systematic rebuilding of the damaged and washed-off infrastructure.
The government has its work cutout at least in three areas of immediate restoration and long term prevention. On landslides warning, it would seem NBRO has the technical capacity to do what it needs to do, and what seems to be missing is a system of multi-pronged and continuous engagement between the technical experts, on the one hand, and the political and administrative powers as well as local population and institutions, on the other. Such an arrangement is warranted because the landslide problem is severe, significant and it not going to go away now or ever.
Such an engagement will also provide for the technical awareness of the problem, its mitigation and the prevention of serious fallouts. A restructuring could start from the assignment of ministerial responsibilities, and giving NBRO experts constant presence at the highest level of decision making. The engagement should extend down the pyramid to involve every level of administration, including schools and civil society organizations at the local level.
As for external resources, several Asian countries, with India being the closest, are already engaged in multiple ways. It is up to the government to co-ordinate and deploy these friendly resources for maximum results. Sri Lanka is already teamed with India for meteorological monitoring and forecasting, and with Japan for landslide research and studies. These collaborations will obviously continue but they should be focused to fill gaps in climate predictions, and to enhance local level monitoring and prevention of landslides.
To deal with the restoration of the damaged infrastructure in multiple watershed areas, the government may want to revisit the Accelerated Mahaweli Scheme for an approach to deal with the current crisis. The genesis and implementation of that scheme involved as many flaws as it produced benefits, but what might be relevant here is to approach the different countries who were involved in funding and building the different Mahaweli headworks and downstream projects. Australia, Britain, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, Sweden and Germany are some of the countries that were involved in the old Mahaweli projects. They could be approached for technical and financial assistance to restore the damaged infrastructure pieces in the respective watershed areas where these countries were involved.
by Rajan Philips ✍️
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