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The questionable wisdom for pursuing LNG

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by Eng Parakrama Jayasinghe

I have been advocating the need for a rational evaluation of the need if any, and the wisdom of adopting LNG as an option for our energy needs, since 2019. The following have been published in the national papers.

The LNG Saga

http://epaper.island.lk/paper/2021/10/04

The LNG Option –Need for a deeper re-think urgently – Dec 4, 2019

http://island.lk/index.php?page_cat=article-details&page=article-details&code_title=215420#

What do we need? LNG or NG or neither? – Nov 8, 2019

I am led to wonder if I have been just wasting my time and efforts, judging from the recent events, as we hear the same inadequately analyzed and ill conceived and outdated proposals being aggressively pursued in total disregard to the significant changes which have been happening throughout the world in the interim. Now a cabinet paper has been submitted citing massive savings, which a commentator has claimed to be overstated by 100% using the data in the same expert report, based on which the Cabinet Paper has been drafted.

LNG switch: Cabinet paper contains flawed projected savings | Print Edition – The Sunday Times, Sri Lanka

If this is true, it would only continue the familiar trend ever since the idea was first put forward many years ago, cherry picking of data to fit the notion including patently erroneous or unsubstantiated assumptions.

It will be recalled that the use of LNG as a source of fuel for power generation was proposed as a transitional fuel about ten years ago. Since no one wanted to openly object to the growing and successful development of renewable energy, LNG was proposed to be the intermediate solution until the solar and wind energy became financially viable and technically reliable. That was over ten years ago.

However, the fact that much has changed even in Sri Lanka, in the adoption of both these technologies and it is now universally accepted that Renewable Energy is more economical than any fossil fuel based power in addition to being environmentally benign. There are dozens of references, including the International Energy Agency ( https://www.iea.org/ ) confirming this status.

But unfortunately, the same old outdated arguments are being trotted forward in total disregard to the much changed ground realities. The primary culprit is the Ceylon Electricity Board planners who find it impossible to get rid of their bias for continued dependence on imported fossil fuels and the prejudice against the indigenous renewable energy (RE) resources contrary to the often repeated assurance of their support for the development of RE. Perhaps due to the fear of losing their strangle hold on the electricity sector as the state monopoly or some other agendas which I will leave the readers to judge.

Fig 1- LNG- Price variation 2017 -2021 . Price $ 5.0 /MMBTU and US $ = Rs 210

A few years ago the attraction of LNG was understandable, both due to the fact that the world LNG prices were at a historical low, and there was hope of our own Natural Gas in the Mannar basin being developed, so that any local investments to adopt the LNG option both in way of the infrastructure and generation facilities appeared justifiable.

The circumstances have changed so much that such justification can no longer be done with the much increased price of LNG and the highly depreciated Rupee, proving once more the danger of dependence on imported fossil fuels, on supply of which we have no control on one side and the continued enhanced drain of FOREX on the other. The long petrol and gas queues and hours long power cuts not long ago were the direct result of such dependence. Replacing oil with LNG is certainly not the solution now, when the alternatives have proven commercially viable even in Sri Lanka and in the rest of the world .

But does the CEB or their consultants or their masters in the Ministry of Power and the government , give any consideration to these altered circumstances, let alone the undeniable and encouraging progress made in the adoption of RE resources which do not require any imported fuels and are cheaper and environmentally benign? It is a great national tragedy that this is hardly the case.

The present government of the NPP, appears to have been sold the same recipe of the now mythical essential need and the value of LNG, as even their policy documents have listed LNG as the option for the future.

The CEB with the support of the newly appointed Minister and the Secretary has pounced upon this as an imperative in total disregard for the other established policies of

· Reaching 70% RE contribution by 2030 and Carbon neutrality by 2050

· Adopting least economic cost mode of generation

· None dependence on imported energy sources for future energy security and thereby the National Security

· Cease building of new coal-fired power plants. A new policy is added

· New addition of firm capacity will be from clean energy sources such as re-gasified liquefied natural gas (R-LNG).

This last statement is highly contestable as LNG is not clean in consideration of the entire supply chain and is reported to be 33% higher emitter of Carbon Dioxide than coal.

The falsity and Lack of Coherence of CEB Arguments in support

And CEB continues to pursue their lopsided arguments and have proposed addition of over 3,500 MW of LNG based power in their Long Term Generation Plan from 2025 to 2044. Now the Chairman has advocated to the government, that the stalled tender for the development of a Floating Storage and Re-Gasification Unit ( FSRU) be reactivated. But no mention has been made of any arrangement to source LNG and the reliability of such supplies in the long term, which one would have thought is the primary requirement before any steps are taken in building user end facilities.

Fig 2 – Current Price trends of LNG –

Sri Lanka certainly cannot claim to be out of bankruptcy, although some measure of stability has been attained only by postponing the repayment of massive amount of foreign loans, which will come to haunt us in the near future as close as 2028. Thus, understandably the government is very keen to increase the FOREX earnings to reduce the continuing gap between cost of imports and the export earnings. Therefore, without a much broader and deeper analysis of the claimed advantages and savings and as the panaceas for resolving the technical issues faced by the CEB, a hasty decision to opt for addition of LNG could hardly be considered wise.

This is a matter of great national concern and such a decision which will only exacerbate the Balance of Payments cannot be left to the CEB or even the Ministry of Energy without intense in-depth analysis . This should cover all aspects of costs , reliability in the long term of supplies and costs and other economic considerations approved after a much wider stakeholder consultation. Hitherto there has never been such a comprehensive study or consultation. The present promise of lower cost of generation yet to be proven and in total disregard to the above issues is certainly not acceptable.

The issues which a has come to light both during the earlier instances when such hasty decisions were mooted and also in the analysis of the Draft Long Term Generation Expansion Plan 2025-2044 are discussed below.

· The cost of LNG based power generation.

This must include not only the cost of the LNG itself but also all other costs involved in the deployment of the FSRU and regassification process and the piping of the re-gassified LNG to the coast as well as the added pipe network required to reach the power plant. While some numbers can be quoted on the world prices of LNG and the historical trends, there are no established costs of the other aspects. The reality in respect of the world prices then and now are shown below .

The change in world market price of LG and its impact on Sri Lanka can be compared as below

As such how can anyone even contemplate a flat trajectory for future prices as childishly shown in the above chart used in the LTEGP? Even a simple private businessman would not plan any future venture based on such impossible projections. But then the CEB is not held responsible for any disasters they have been causing over the years and plans to plunge the entire country to anther disaster.

Fig 3 – CEB prediction of LNG prices The change in world market price of LG and its impact on Sri Lanka can be compared as below

The LTGEP reveals that that the annual natural gas consumption will remain at a very low level (below 0.6 MTPA) till 2035. This will add a substantial cost to the capacity charge of the FSRU which has to be accounted for when the total LNG fuel costs are calculated and thus further increase the cost of generation.

The demand will remain low at about 0.6 MTPA which is well below the capacity of a FSRU that would interest any investor. There is an attempt to blow this up by planning totally unacceptable plans to increase demand by converting the aging plants at Kelanitissa and even to use if for transport.

It is quite unlikely that any investors would be interested in catering to such low volumes unless there is provision for substantial premiums on the sale price. This added to the current East Asia price of $ 15.04 plus the other charges have already made this option none viable. Using even the declared price of $ 11.90 the cost of generation would be over Rs 55.00 /kWh. https://view.argusmedia.com

For Sri Lanka , the governing factor is the cost of generation which must include the entire supply chain and infra structure costs development and operation, including any take or pay provisions or premiums for lower scope of supplies. These considerations have been swept under the carpet by erroneous data and plainly misleading numbers such as assuming that the price of LNG will be none variable in the future. This was done in case of coal and is still being practiced.

Fig 5 – LNG demand prediction in LTEGP 2024-2044

Promise of a Clean Fuel

It is futile to try and paint LNG as clean and low in carbon emission. The carbon emission has to be gauged across the entire supply chain. There are studies to say that LNG is has 33% higher carbon emission than coal.

Green washed: LNG emits 33% more carbon than coal, new report finds

As such the promise of LNG already fails on both counts based on which it has been promoted. That of economical cost of generation and the green house emissions. This is without any consideration of the totally avoidable additional drain of foreign exchange.

What does the CEB expects to gain by this addition of LNG?

The only reason for the CEB to pursue this goal is only to perpetuate the dependence on imported fossil fuels, now that their former goal of adding more coal power has been soundly rejected even by the previous government. There is no way that this can be considered a progressive move on one hand because of the continued drain on foreign exchange for the import of LNG and the impact on the long term energy security of the country with dependence on a source completely outside the control of Sri Lanka.

They hide these dangers by citing issues of a need for Base Load power and spinning reserves and the none firm nature of the two renewable energy sourced of solar and wind.

All these problems have been well resolved by other countries and the CEB chooses to turn a blind eye to promote this nationally disastrous move even going to the extent of citing patently false data.

The Ministry and the Government must take urgent action to understand the truth and prevent this disaster being perpetuated.

Conclusion

The Government has several promises to keep.

· Build up the FOREX reserves to face the debt repayment challenge in 2028

· Reduce the consumer tariff by 35%.

Both these will be highly doubt full if the CEB is continued these unviable proposals. Their claim of inability to reduce the consumer tariff was soundly debunked by highly researched presentations made during the recent public consultations. It was also pointed out that the consumer tariff can be reduced significantly reduced by eliminating the use of oil for power generation as early as possible. The CEB now proposes to replace such positive trend by committing the country to perhaps even more damaging introduction of LNG.

The CEB is driven only by their inability and unwillingness to change their Frog in The Well attitude and assimilate the more progressive developments in the RE sector in the best interests of Sri Lanka and its citizens. The question has to be asked, is the CEB or even the Ministry of Energy can be trusted to make such decisions which affects the entire country without a wide ranging public consultation?

The Ministry and the Govt should at least now officially assign the responsibility and accountability of achieving the national objectives, of much reduced consumer tariff and goal of reaching the 70% RE target by year 2030.

This is the right of the People of Sri Lanka , who are the true owners of the Energy Sector and Resources and are the major Stake Holder and not the CEB



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Are we witnessing end of globalisation? What’s at stake for Sri Lanka?

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Globalisation can be understood as relations between countries, and it fosters a greater relationship between countries that involve the movement of goods, services, information, technology, money, and human beings between countries. These relationships transcend economic, cultural, political, and social contexts.

Globalisation in the modern world today is a significant shift from the past. Globalisation in the modern world today is a state in which the world becomes interconnected and interdependent. This change occurs due to better technology, transport, communication, and foreign trade.

Trade routes have joined areas for centuries. The Silk Road and colonial sea trade routes are the best examples. But today, nobody can match the speed and scope of globalization.

Globalisation began to modernise after World War II. During this time, countries came to understand that they had to work together. They wanted to have economic cooperation and peace so that they would not fight any more. These significant institutions united countries for political and economic purposes and advantages. They allow free movement of products, services, and capital between countries. It encourages cooperation all over the world.

The second half of the 20th century saw fabulous technological advances. These advances sped up globalisation. The internet changed everything. It changed the way people communicate, share information, and do business. Traveling became faster and more efficient. Products and humans travel from one continent to another in record time. Companies can now do business globally. They outsource jobs, get access to global markets, and use global supply chains. This was the dawn of multinational firms and a global economy.

Flow of information is one of the characteristic features of the current age of globalisation. The internet allows news, ideas, and culture to be shared in real-time. Societies are experiencing unprecedented cultural interconnectedness. This has led to controversy over cultural sameness and dissimilation of local cultures. For example, the same is observed within countries too. In countries such as Sri Lanka the language differences between districts have become a non-issue, and the western province’s language has paved the way for others to emulate. Globalisation has allowed millions of individuals to lift themselves out of poverty, especially in Asia and Latin America. It does this by creating new employment opportunities and expanding markets. It has also increased economic inequalities, though. Wealth flows to those who possess technology and capital. Poor workers and communities are unable to compete regionally or internationally. Some countries have seen political backlash. In these countries, some people feel left behind by the benefits of globalisation.

Modern globalisation has a lot to do with environmental concerns. More production, transportation, and consumption have destroyed the planet. These are pollution, deforestation, and climate change. Global issues need global solutions. That is why international cooperation is essential in solving environmental problems. The Paris Climate Agreement is one such international effort to cooperate. There are constant debates regarding justice and responsibility between poor and rich countries.

Modern-day globalisation deeply influences our daily lives in many ways. It has opened up possibilities for economic growth, innovation, and cultural exchange. However, it also carries with it dire consequences like inequality, environmental destruction, and displacement of culture. The future of globalisation will be determined by the way we handle its impact. We have to see to it that its benefits are distributed evenly across all societies.

Tariffs are globalising-era import taxes. Governments levy them to protect domestic firms from foreign competition. But employed ruthlessly and as retaliation like today, and they can trigger trade wars. Such battles, especially between big economies such as the U.S. and China, can skew trade. They can destabilise markets and challenge the new era of globalisation. Tariff wars will slow or shift globalisation but won’t bury it.

Globalisation is not just a product of dismantling trade barriers. It is the product of enormous forces like technology, communications, and economic integration in markets across the globe. Tariffs can limit trade between countries or markets. They cannot undo the fact that most economies in the world today are interdependent. Firms, consumers, and governments depend on coordination across borders. They collaborate on energy, finance, manufacturing, and information technologies.

However, the effects of tariff wars should not be downplayed. Excessive tariffs among dominant nations compromise international supply chains. This also raises the cost for consumers and creates uncertainty for investors. The 2018 U.S.–China trade war created billions of dollars’ worth of tariffs. It also lowered the two countries’ trade. Industries such as agriculture, electronics, and automotive manufacturing lost money. These wars can harm international trade confidence. They also discourage higher economic integration.

There are some nations that are facing challenges. They are, therefore, diversifying trade blocs. Others are creating domestic industries. Some are also shifting to regional economic blocks. This may result in more fragmented globalisation. Global supply chains can become short and local. The COVID-19 pandemic and tariff tensions forced countries to re-examine the use of foreign suppliers. They began to stress self-sufficiency in vital sectors. These are medicine, technology, and food production.

Despite these trends, globalisation is not robust. The global economy can withstand crises. It does so due to innovation, new trade relations, and digitalisation. E-commerce, teleworking, and online communication link people and businesses across the globe. Sometimes these links are even stronger than before. Countries need to come together in order to combat challenges like climate change, pandemics, and cybersecurity. This is happening even as economic tensions rise.

Tariff wars can disrupt trade and create tensions.

However, they will not be likely to end globalisation, but instead, they reshape it. They might change its structure, create new partnerships, and help countries find a balance between openness and security. The globalization forces are strong and complex. They can be slowed down or reorganized, but not readily undone. The future of globalisation will depend on how countries strike their economic interests. They must also recognise their interdependence on each other in our globalised world. The world economy has a tendency to change during crises.

It does this through innovating, policy reform, building strong institutions, and changing economic behavior. But they also stimulate innovative and pragmatic responses by governments, companies, and citizens. The world economy has shown that it can heal, change, and change after crises like financial downturns, pandemics, and geo-political conflicts. One of the more notable examples of economic adjustment occurred in the 2008 global financial crisis. The crisis started when the housing market in the U.S. collapsed. The big banks collapsed, and then the effects spilled over to the world. This led to recessions, very high unemployment levels, and a drop in consumer confidence. In response, central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank acted very quickly. They cut interest rates to near zero. They also started large-scale quantitative easing. Governments spent stimulus money in their economies. They assisted in bailing out banks and introduced tax-tight financial regulations. These actions stabilised markets and ultimately restored economic growth. The crisis also led to new financial watchdog mechanisms. One example is the Financial Stability Board, which has the objective of avoiding such collapses in the future. The COVID-19 pandemic created a unique crisis.

It reached health systems and economies globally. In 2020, the world suddenly stopped. Lockdowns and supply chain disruptions followed. This led to a sharp fall in GDP in almost all countries. Sri Lanka experienced it acutely. However, the world economy has adapted at a breathtaking speed. Remote work and online shopping flourished, driven by digital technology. Firms transitioned to new formats like contactless offerings, delivery platforms, and remote platforms. Governments rolled out massive stimulus packages to businesses and employees. Central banks infused liquidity to support financial systems. International cooperation on vaccine development and distribution also helped accelerate economic recovery. By 2021 and 2022, various economies were quicker to recover than expected, though unevenly by region. Another outstanding one is the manner in which economies adapted to geostrategic struggles:

The war of 2022 between Ukraine and Russia ravaged across world markets of food and energy, with special impact on Europe and the Global South.

European nations moved swiftly to abandon Russian natural gas. European nations also looked around for other sources of energy and increased usage of renewables. While shock caused inflation as well as supply shortages to a peak first, markets began to shift ultimately. And world grain markets looked elsewhere and established new channels of commerce. Such changes show the ways that economies can change under stress, even if ancient structures are upended. Climate change is demanding long-term change in the world economy.

The climate crisis isn’t a sudden crisis, like war or pandemic. But it’s pushing nations and businesses to make big changes. Green technologies are on the rise. Electric vehicles, solar and wind power, and carbon capture are the best examples. These technologies are indicative of how economies address environment crises. Financial institutions and banks are now embracing sustainable investing guidelines. Countries are uniting in a low-carbon future under the terms of the Paris Climate Accord. Technology is leading economic resilience.

The digital economy is going stratospheric—AI, cloud computing, and e-commerce are the jetpack! These technologies enable companies to be agile and resilient. Consider the pandemic and the financial crisis, for instance. Technology businesses did not just survive; they flew like eagles. They gave us remote work tools, digital payments, and virtual conversations, allowing us to stay connected when it was most important. These innovations have irreversibly shifted the terrain of worldwide business and work. The global economy’s history is marked by crises and its capacity to adapt and transform in response. The global economy proves strong during financial crises, pandemics, conflicts, and climate issues. Resilience shines through innovation, teamwork, and strategic adjustments. Though challenges linger and vulnerabilities remain, we’re not without hope.

Learning from crises helps us fortify and adapt our systems. This adaptability signals a promising evolution for the global economy amid future uncertainties.

The current trade war, especially between the United States and China, is reshaping globalization. It may lead to a new form of it. These tensions do not terminate globalization. Instead, they push it to evolve into a more complex and regional form. The new model includes economic factors. It also includes political, technological, and security factors. This leads to a world that remains interconnected but in more cautious, selective, and fragmented ways.

Trade wars tend to begin when countries want to protect their industries.

They might want to lower trade deficits. They also respond to unfairness, including intellectual property theft or state subsidies. The ongoing trade war between China and the U.S. has seen massive tariffs, export quotas, and increasing geopolitical tensions. This is a sharp departure from the post-Cold War era, which saw more free and open trade. Now, companies and governments prepare for everything. Safety and national interests are their concerns. This change is reflective of a trend that some experts call “de-risking” or “strategic decoupling.” One of the most obvious signs of this new course is the reorganization of global supply chains.

Many global companies want to diversify away from relying on one country. They especially want to decouple from China for manufacturing and raw materials. They diversify production by investing in different regions. It is called “China plus one.” It means relocating operations to locations like Vietnam, India, and Mexico. This relocation takes global supply chains from centralized to more regionalized and redundant networks. These networks prepare for future shocks. Moreover, technology and digital infrastructure have an increasing role in this new globalization.

Trade tensions are an indication of the strategic value of semiconductors, telecommunications, and artificial intelligence. Nations are realizing that technology is a national security issue. Therefore, they have invested in their local capabilities and restricted foreign technologies’ access. The U.S., for example, has put export restrictions on high-end microchips and blocked some Chinese technology companies from accessing its market. China and other nations have increased efforts in developing independent ecosystems for technologies. This has given rise to parallel technology realms. This could result in a “bifurcated” global economy with different standards and systems. The current trade war is also strengthening the advent of regional trading blocs.

Global trade agencies like the World Trade Organization are getting weakened. This is owing to the fact that the world’s major nations are competing with one another. Hence, the nations are currently opting for regional agreements to develop economic cooperation. Discuss the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in Asia. And let’s not forget the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA). Collectively, these agreements represent a new era of globalization. It’s no longer a free-for-all; rather, it’s a strategic web spun with trusted partners and regional ambitions resulting in ‘islands’ or ‘regions’ of globalization. The new model of globalization creates greater independence and security for some but presents issues.

The countries that previously prospered from the exportation of goods and involvement in the global market may face greater challenges. As protectionism rises and competition becomes greater, customers may pay more. Economic inefficiencies are a likely reason. Additionally, the disintegration of international institutions may stop countries from agreeing on important issues. Problems like global warming, pandemics, and economic downturns can become harder to resolve. The current trade war will not end globalization, but it is reshaping it. We see a new type of globalization that is fragmented, regional, and strategic in character. Countries are still interdependent, but such economic dependency is underpinned by trust, security, and competition. Globalization is changing, so we must balance these changes with the imperatives of cooperation in our globalized world.

New types of globalization include regional trade blocs, reshaping supply chains, tech decoupling, and growing geopolitical tensions.

For Sri Lanka, the changes have far-reaching consequences.

Being a small nation strategically located, Sri Lanka relies on trade, tourism, and foreign investment. Globalization is, however, more fragmented and politicized and security-oriented. This offers opportunities and challenges for Sri Lanka. To survive, the country must reform its economic policies. It must diversify relationships and maneuver the rival interests of global powers with caution.

One of the most immediate effects of the new globalization is realigning global supply chains.

Multinationals want to wean themselves from China. They want to shift production elsewhere. Sri Lanka can be a new hub for light manufacturing, logistics, and services. Being located on key shipping routes in the Indian Ocean means that it is a vital node in global ocean trade. Sri Lanka can lure more foreign investment by improving its infrastructure, bolstering digital strength, and upgrading the regulations. This would help firms to open up business. This would create employment as well as improve export-led growth. But the shift towards regionalism in global trade also poses danger.

The rest of the countries outside these alignments might be left out as major economies create closed trading blocs. Examples include the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and bilateral agreements like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. Sri Lanka is not part of most of the world’s biggest trade blocs, limiting its access to large markets and preferential trade conditions. Exclusion could make exports less competitive. It could also reduce the nation’s appeal as an international production base. To fulfill this, Sri Lanka must pursue trade agreements with regional powers like India and ASEAN nations in order to keep up with shifting trade networks. One key feature of the new era of globalization is a focus on ‘technological sovereignty’.

This includes the rise of alternative digital ecosystems, especially between China and the US. Sri Lanka must manage the tech divide wisely. Countries are closing doors to other people’s technologies and creating their own networks. Cyber security, digital infrastructure, and data governance require investments. Sri Lanka also needs to balance embracing new technology while preserving its digital sovereignty. Dependence on technology from a single country could yield dangers, as digital tools will be the main movers in the realms of governance, finance, and communication. Geopolitical competition, especially in the Indo-Pacific, also affects Sri Lanka’s economic and strategic location.

The island’s location has drawn China and India and Western nations. China’s involvement in Sri Lankan infrastructure projects, such as the Hambantota Port and the Colombo Port City, has yielded economic advantage as well as concerns regarding debt dependence and strategic control. Meanwhile, India and its allies have expressed interest in balancing Chinese power in the region. This is a sensitive balance that Sri Lanka has to exercise strategic diplomacy to reap foreign investment without being entangled in great power rivalry or compromising sovereignty. In addition, economic resilience in the face of global shocks—such as the COVID-19 pandemic, energy shocks, and food crises—has emerged as a top priority in the new era of globalization.

The recent economic slump in Sri Lanka, marked by a sovereign default, foreign exchange crises, and inflation, underscored the country’s vulnerability to global shocks. These events underscore the need for greater economic diversification, sound fiscal management, and long-term development. Sri Lanka must build stronger domestic industries, shift to clean energies, and transform regional supply systems that are less vulnerable to shocks from the outside. Generally speaking, therefore, the new patterns of globalization present Sri Lanka with a risk-laden world of possibility too.

While transforming global patterns of trade and investments creates new doors to economic growth, it steers the country towards more aggressive competition, geopolitical tensions, and internal vulnerabilities. To thrive in this fast-evolving world, Sri Lanka must adopt an assertive strategy of regional integration, technological resilience, strategic diplomacy, and inclusive economic reform. On the way, it can transform foreign uncertainty into a platform for sustainable and sovereign development.

by Professor Amarasiri de Silva

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Fever in children

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by Dr B.J.C.Perera 
MBBS(Cey), DCH(Cey),
DCH(Eng), MD(Paed), MRCP(UK), FRCP(Edin), FRCP(Lond), FRCPCH(UK),
FSLCPaed, FCCP, Hony. FRCPCH(UK), Hony. FCGP(SL)
 

Specialist Consultant Paediatrician and Honorary Senior Fellow, Postgraduate Institute of Medicine, University of Colombo, Sri Lanka.
Joint Editor, Sri Lanka Journal of Child Health Section Editor, Ceylon Medical Journal

Fever is a common symptom of a variety of diseases in children. At the outset, it is very important to clearly understand that it is only a symptom and not a disease in its own right. When the body temperature is elevated above the normal level of around 98.6 degrees Fahrenheit (F) or 37 degrees Celsius (C), the condition is referred to as fever. It is a significant accompanying symptom of a plethora of childhood diseases. All children would get a fever at some time or another in their lives, and in the vast majority of cases, this is due to rather mild illnesses, and they are completely back to normal within a few days. Some may have a rather low-grade fever, while others may have quite a high fever. However, in certain situations, fever may be an important indication of an underlying serious problem. The significance depends entirely on the circumstances under which this occurrence is seen.

 Irrespective of the actual underlying reason for the fever, the basic mechanism of causation of fever is the temporary resetting of the temperature-regulating thermostat of the brain to a higher level. The consequences are that the heat generated within the body is not effectively dissipated. It is merely a body response to a harmful agent and is a very important defence mechanism. Turning up the core temperature is the body’s way of fighting the germs that cause infections and making the body a less comfortable place for them. However, less commonly, it is also a manifestation of other inflammatory disorders in children. The significance of fever in such situations is a little bit different to that which is seen as a response to an infection.

The part of the human brain that controls body temperature is not fully developed in young children. This means that a child’s temperature may rise and fall very quickly and the child is also more sensitive to the temperature of his or her surroundings. Although parents often worry and get terribly scared with the child developing fever, it does not cause any harm by itself. It is a good thing in the sense that it is often the body’s way of fighting off infection.

It is quite important to note that the actual level of the temperature is not always a good guide to how ill the child is. A simple cold or other viral infection can sometimes cause a high fever in the region of 102 to 104 degrees Fahrenheit or 39 to 40 degrees Celsius. However, this does not always indicate a serious problem. It is also true to say that some more sinister infections could sometimes cause a much lower rise in the body temperature. Because fevers may rise and fall, a child with a fever might experience chills and shivering as the body tries to generate additional heat as the body temperature begins to rise. This may be followed by sweating as the body releases extra heat when the temperature starts to drop. Children with fever often breathe faster than usual and generally have a higher heart rate. However, fever accompanied by obvious difficulties in breathing, especially if the breathing problems persist even at times the temperature is normal is of significance and requires urgent medical evaluation of the situation. Generally, in the case of children, the way they act is far more important than the reading on the thermometer, and most of the time, the exact level of a child’s temperature is not particularly important, unless it is persistently very high.

Although many fevers need just simple remedies, under certain conditions the symptom of fever needs rather urgent medical attention. This is the case in babies younger than three months. Same is true even in a bigger child if the fever is accompanied by uncontrollable crying or pain in the neck with a severe headache. Marked coughing and or difficulty in breathing coupled with fever needs to be medically sorted out. Fever combined with pain and difficulty in passing urine, significant tummy pains or marked vomiting and diarrhoea too would need medical attention. Reddish rashes and bluish spots on the skin with fever also need to be seen by a doctor. The illness is probably not serious if a child with a history of fever is still interested in playing, is eating and drinking well, is alert and smiling, has a normal skin colour and looks well when his or her temperature comes down. However, even with rather low levels of fever, under certain conditions, medical attention should be sought. In situations such as when the child seems to be too ill to eat and drink, has persistent vomiting or diarrhoea, has signs of dehydration, has specific complaints like a sore throat or an earache or when fever is complicated by some other chronic illness, it is prudent for him or her to be seen by a qualified doctor.

One could take several steps to bring down a fever. It is very useful to remove most of the clothes and keep under a fan to facilitate heat loss from the body. If there is no fan available, one could try fanning with a newspaper. A very effective way of bringing down a temperature is to sponge the body with a towel soaked in water. The water must be at room temperature or a bit higher. One should not use ice or iced water on the body. Ice will lead to contraction of the blood vessels of the skin and the purpose would be lost as more heat will be conserved within the body. There is no evidence that ice on the head helps to bring down the fever or to prevent a convulsion. If a medicine is to be used, paracetamol is probably as good as any other drug, but the correct dosage according to the instructions on the container should be used for optimal benefit. The best way of calculating the appropriate dose is by using the body weight. It is very important to stress that aspirin and aspirin-containing medications should not be used in children, merely to bring down a fever.

A child with fever loses a considerable amount of fluid from the body, particularly due to sweating. It is beneficial to ensure that the child drinks plenty of fluids. A good index of the adequacy of fluid intake is the passing of normal amounts of urine. A reduced solid food intake would not matter that much just for a couple of days of fever, but in prolonged fevers adequate nutrition too becomes quite important. A child with a high temperature also needs rest and sleep. They do not have to be in bed all day if they feel like playing, but they must have the opportunity to lie down. Sick children are often tired and bad-tempered. They sleep a lot, and when they are awake, they want their parents around all the time. Perhaps it is quite useful to spoil them a little bit when they are ill and to read to them, play with them or just spend time with them. It is best to keep a child with a fever home and not send him or her to school or child care. Most doctors would agree that in simple fevers, it is quite satisfactory for the child to return to school or child care when the temperature has been normal for over 24 hours.

Trying to get the temperature down would make the child more comfortable. However, it is not essential to get it down to normal and to keep it there scrupulously. Parents often worry that either the fever simply refuses to abate or springs up again after a couple of hours. It must be realised that certain fevers have to run their course and will not come down to normal in a hurry, despite whatever measures that are undertaken. This is particularly true of viral fevers. Some parents are terribly worried at the slightest elevation of the temperature and go running to doctors looking for a “magic cure” for the fever. Many fevers do not need urgent medical attention and one could watch it for a few days and see how it progresses. Yet for all that, if there are some worrying signs then it is advisable to seek advice from a qualified doctor.

It is a familiar occurrence that many people believe that a high fever is quite dangerous. Fever by itself has no major long-lasting effects. If one appreciates that high fever is just a symptom and that it is only a reaction of the body to something untoward going on, then it is easy to consider it to be just like any other symptom of a disease. Some are also under the misconception that a high fever could cause a convulsion. This is not always the case, and a convulsion would occur only in those children who have the constitutional tendency to get them. Convulsions are not always related to high fever, and in those who are susceptible, even moderate and sometimes mild fever could trigger a convulsion. High fever does not lead to lasting brain damage in its own right either. Fever is sometimes an indication of a significant infection, but in those circumstances, the primary disease itself is the real problem. In situations where medical help is desirable, what is most important is the way a fever is sorted out and some kind of a diagnosis being made as to the real cause of the fever. The crucial component of the treatment of a fever caused by an underlying problem is the treatment of the root cause.

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Robbers and Wreckers

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To quarrel with them is a loss of face

To have their friendship is a sad disgrace

Those lines by Bharavi were written after the fourth century A.D. when Sanskrit was already a purely literary language.

 We have had the spectacle of a reporter in DC asking Donald Trump whether he regrets his lying all the time every day of his life. And, Trump responded “What did you say?” and one could see that such a possibility had never occurred to him: he was genuinely baffled.

The question here and now is whether such a thought has ever come to Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Harini Amarasuriya, both obedient servants of the US and India. For example, the prathigna given by Amarasuriya as she was sworn in by AKD as Prime Minister in a Cabinet of three. That their doings are in line with the desires of Ranil Wickremesinghe (and maybe the “aspirations” of their buddies) would translate also to the cover up of his bringing in Arjuna Mahendran, the son of a Chairman of the UNP, to trash the Central Bank and execute Ranil’s bond scam.

In the matters of managing our economy and respecting our age-old culture this lot have shown us glimpses of the lunatic self-applause that define Trump’s doings. As phrased by a commentator in the U K Guardian a few days ago Trump’s endeavours “weren’t about Making America Wealthy Again. This was much more primal. Sticking it to all the people who had laughed at him over the years. His bankruptcies. His hair. His orangeness. His stupidity. Sticking it to all those who had taken him to court and won. Now he was the most powerful person in the world. He had the whole world watching as he messed it up. He could do what he liked.”. It’s quite obvious that the last is how AKD, HA, Yapa and the top tier of those most culpable have read their horoscopes: they do not expect to be held accountable

“The U.S.’s new tariff policy reflects a broader shift away from globalisation and towards economic nationalism and national balance sheet economic model approach”. So wrote a self-styled Business Cycle Economist last week. That is the kind of delusion that ‘growth-friendly’ market theory such ‘economists’ are trained to shove down the throats of politicians possessed of just about the bit of wit required to enrich themselves in tandem with the IMF and those entrepreneurs it supports.

At this point we should note also that Trump’s new wave of tariffs was harshest on Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam and Sri Lanka––all, coincidentally, in addition to their strategic importance for war-mongers, Buddhist countries.

How closely those who call the shots among the power-wielders here follow Trump is seen in their response or lack of one to the earthquake that has devastated Myanmar and Thailand a week ago. The USA has been salivating over the riches of Myanmar for a long time, confident that Aung Suu Kyi would deliver them on a platter. That no doubt was the object of the aragalaya here and seems within reach for India now.

For months now, from 2022 at least, there have been markers that showed who was running the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (so calling themselves) and what their agenda was with respect to our country and her people. An early eruption that showed their hand was that aragalaya‘. It was designed to ensure a regime change that would place, let us for convenience say, Adani in charge. It involved, as a first step, getting Gotabhaya out of the presidency. That it was so was also shown two years ago in the London Review of Books by Pankaj Misra in an essay titled “The BIG CON” on Modi’s India. In which Gotabhaya and Adani are mentioned and the above object specified.

Misra’s latest work has been on “The World After Gaza” – a reference not without its applications not only to Modi’s support for Adani in Haifa, but to the ridiculous and altogether culpable gestures of friendship towards the US-Israeli led coalition of criminals shown by Ranil Wickremasinghe and associated Colombians who succeeded him. Haifa is the largest port in that segment of occupied Palestine and the Trump group also has had a stake in it.

I shall pause here with the concluding lines of Bharavi’s quatrain.

 One of sterling judgment realizes

What fools are worth and foolish ones despises.

by Gamini Seneviratne

 

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