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The elections in Maldives

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By Aavin Abeydeera

Within the next few weeks, Maldives will be going into a general election to elect their next president. One would assume that political intrigue and king-making would not afflict such an idyllic nation, but such assumptions quickly erode delving into the palace games surrounding the Maldivian general elections.

At the 2013 presidential elections, Abdulla Yameen was elected to power. He wasted no time imprisoning his opponents. Mirroring other leaders in South Asia, his term’s foreign policy was marked by a clear and definite shift from India to China.

His opponents taken care of, his government seemed ready for stable rule. Yet despite lavish Chinese-funded projects, Yameen’s rule was criticized for corruption and human rights abuses. If that reminds you of another South Asian president, that is as it should.

When the Maldivian Democratic Party’s (MDP) Ibrahim Solih, the joint opposition candidate, won presidential elections in 2018 by a margin of 16% in the first round itself, it was a twist the incumbent president did not see coming. History tends to follow patterns. Five years later, Yameen is behind bars and disqualified from contesting elections. However, much like Yameen did in 2018, Solih faces an uncertain future regarding this upcoming election.

With eight candidates in the fray, this is the largest pool of candidates ever taking part in a presidential election in Maldives’ history. However, only a few key names seem to matter.

Ibrahim Solih

On paper, President Solih should have an easy run – his tenure has been largely unproblematic, and his biggest achievement lies in the fact that he successfully steered the island nation through the Covid pandemic without suffering a national collapse.

Furthermore, his diplomatic skills have afforded Maldives a chance to repair their relationship with India without alienating their newfound Chinese allies.

However, his electoral outlook is not as clear cut as theory would indicate. Two parties of his own ruling coalition are fielding their candidates in the elections, meaning that it is almost a certainty that the incumbent Solih will lose support from his own base of power.

Solih remains the frontrunner, but it is uncertain whether he can secure an outright win without the elections going into the second round. If Solih fails to win a majority, he will face considerable challenges going up against a sole opponent in the second round.

Mohamed Muizzu

Mohammed Muizzu is another player of the palatial intrigue this season. Endorsed by former president Yameen, Muizzu presents a novel challenge.Muizzu is essentially a spiritual successor to President Yameen. Both hail from the same party. However, Yameen’s endorsement of Muizzu is fraught with complications of its own. Muizzu has spoken before about converting the presidential form of governance to a parliamentary system, which sits at odds with Yameen’s vision.

Furthermore, Yameen would prefer to endorse a candidate who would hold as little real power as possible. Unfortunately for Yameen, Muizzu is one of the most powerful politicians in the country.

A former Housing Minister during the Yameen presidency, Muizzu has the advantage of having held one of the most influential political positions in the country. Maldives is a small country, and the need for affordable housing is immense. A Housing Minister that can rise to the challenge will almost certainly have a huge voter base.

In addition, he was Mayor of Male, the capital of the country, where almost 40% of the country live. Muizzu has numbers backing him, but theory can only take you so far, and only time will tell if the arithmetical advantage Muizzu holds will translate into tangible results.

Qasim Ibrahim

One of the wealthiest businessmen in Maldives, Qasim Ibrahim of the Jumhooree Party (JP) has always been seen to be a kingmaker, due to his ability to influence Maldivian politics, and more specifically, his power to swing elections.

Ibrahim will be contesting elections for the third time, after standing in the 2008 and 2013 polls. He may not have the numbers to win an election outright, but he has a captive vote bank that is envied by all parties. As the owner of one of the biggest companies in the Maldives, it is the opinion of many analysts that Qasim can count on his extensive workforce to boost his votes.

At the first multi-party presidential elections in 2008, he was eliminated in the first round and thereafter, announced support for the MDP’s Mohamed Nasheed, who eventually defeated long-term dictator Maumoon Gayoom in the second round. While he initially joined Nasheed’s cabinet, Qasim soon left after a fallout.

In the 2013 elections, his elimination in the first round led to him to endorse Abdullah Yameen, who secured victory over Nasheed in the second round. Qasim did not participate in the 2018 elections due to a conviction but supported Solih as joint opposition candidate.

A trend can probably be seen here. Whoever Ibrahim supports ends up winning the presidency. This year, it remains to be seen which candidate Ibrahim will support in the second round- something that other candidates will keep a keen eye on.

One may be justified in asking what the significance of this election is in terms of international realpolitik. After all, Maldives is a small island nation, best known for its idyllic beaches, not its political significance in the world stage. Here lies the answer.

Maldives is a state that enjoys the luxury of playing kingmaker in the Indo-Pacific. In a region that is becoming increasingly important in terms of economic and political power, multilateral powers such as the QUAD alliance, as well as individual nations such as India, China, and even the US will keep a sharp eye on which side the Maldives will take.

In short, the upcoming elections might well herald which side the dice falls on.

Aavin Abeydeera is a student at the Bandaranaike Center for International Studies (BCIS). He is interested in writing about the world and how it operates. His interests range from geopolitics, economics, and foreign policy to culture and sports.



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Fractious West facing a more solidified Eastern opposition

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An Iranian attack on a neighbouring Gulf state. Image courtesy BBC.

Going forward, it is hoped that a reported ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran would provide a basis for a degree of stability in the Middle East and pave the way for substantive peace talks between the powers concerned. The world is compelled to fall back on hope because there is never knowing when President Donald Trump would change his mind and plans on matters of the first importance. So erratic has he been.

Yet, confusion abounds on who has agreed to what. The US President is on record that a number of conditions put forward by him to Iran to deescalate tensions have been accepted by the latter, whereas Iran is yet to state unambiguously that this is so. For instance, the US side claims that Iran has come clear on the point that it would not work towards acquiring a nuclear weapons capability, but there is no official confirmation by Iran that this is so. The same goes for the rest of the conditions.

Accordingly, the peace process between the US and Iran, if such a thing solidly exists, could be said to be mired in uncertainty. Nevertheless, the wider publics of the world are bound to welcome the prospects of some sort of ceasing of hostilities because it would have the effect of improving their economic and material well being which is today under a cloud.

However, questions of the first magnitude would continue to bedevil international politics and provide the breeding ground for continued tensions between East and West. Iran-US hostilities helped highlight some of these divisive issues and a deescalation of these tensions would not inevitably translate into even a temporary resolution of these questions. The world community would have no choice but to take them up and work towards comprehending them better and managing them more effectively.

For example, there are thorny questions arising from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Essentially, this treaty bans the processing and use of nuclear weapons by states but some of the foremost powers are not signatories to it.

Moreover, the NPT does not provide for the destroying of nuclear arsenals by those signatory states which are already in possession of these WMDs. Consequently, there would be a glaring power imbalance between the latter nuclear-armed states and others which possess only conventional weapons.

Such a situation has grave implications for Iran’s security, for instance. The latter could argue, in view of the NPT restrictions, that the US poses a security threat to it but that it is debarred by the Treaty from developing a nuclear arms capability of its own to enable it to match the nuclear capability of the US. Moreover, its regional rival Israel is believed to possess a nuclear weapons capability.

Accordingly, a case could be made that the NPT is inherently unfair. The US would need to help resolve this vexatious matter going forward. But if it remains, US-Iran tensions would not prove easy to resolve. The same goes for Iran-Israeli tensions. Consequently, the Middle East would remain the proverbial ‘powder keg’.

Besides the above issues, the world has ample evidence that it could no longer speak in terms of a united NATO or West. Apparently, there could be no guarantee that US-NATO relations would remain untroubled in future, even if the current Iran-US standoff is peacefully resolved. US-NATO ties almost reached breaking point in the current crisis when the US President called on its NATO partners, particularly Britain, to help keep open the Hormuz Straits for easy navigation by commercial vessels, militarily, on seeing that such help was not forthcoming. Such questions are bound to remain sore points in intra-Western ties.

In other words, it would be imperative for the US’ NATO partners to help pull the US’ ‘chestnuts out of the fire’ going ahead. The question is, would NATO be willing to thus toe the US line even at the cost of its best interests.

For the West, these fractious issues are coming to the fore at a most unpropitious moment. The reality that could faze the West at present is the strong opposition shown to its efforts to bolster its power and influence by China and Russia. Right through the present crisis, the latter have stood by Iran, materially and morally. For instance, the most recent Security Council resolution spearheaded by the US which was strongly critical of Iran, was vetoed by China and Russia.

Accordingly, we have in the latter developments some marked polarities in international politics that could stand in the way of the West advancing its interests unchallenged. They point to progressively intensifying East-West tensions in international relations in the absence of consensuality.

It is only to be expected that given the substance of international politics that the West would be opposed by the East, read China and Russia, in any of the former’s efforts to advance its self interests unilaterally in ways that could be seen as illegitimate, but what is sorely needed at present is consensuality among the foremost powers if the world is to be ‘a less dangerous place to live in.’ Minus a focus on the latter, it would be a ‘no-win’ situation for all concerned.

It would be central to world stability for International Law to be upheld by all states and international actors. Military intervention by major powers in the internal affairs of other countries remains a principal cause of international mayhem. Both East and West are obliged to abide scrupulously with this principle.

From the latter viewpoint, not only did the West err in recent times, but the East did so as well. Iran, for instance, acted in gross violation of International Law when it attacked neighbouring Gulf states which are seen as US allies. Neither Iran nor the US-Israel combine have helped in advancing international law and order by thus taking the law into their own hands.

Unfortunately, the UN has been a passive spectator to these disruptive developments. It needs to play a more robust role in promoting world peace and in furthering consensual understanding among the principal powers in particular. The need is also urgent to advance UN reform and render the UN a vital instrument in furthering world peace. The East and West need to think alike and quickly on this urgent undertaking.

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Science-driven health policies key to tackling emerging challenges — UNFPA

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Dr. Dayanath Ranatunga

Marking World Health Day on April 7, health experts have called for a stronger commitment to science-based decision-making to address increasingly complex and evolving health challenges in Sri Lanka and beyond.

Dr. Dayanath Ranatunga, Assistant Representative of the United Nations Population Fund, stressed that health is no longer confined to hospitals or traditional medical systems, but is shaped by a broad spectrum of social, environmental, and technological factors.

“This year’s theme, ‘Together for Health. Stand with Science,’ reminds us that science is not only for laboratories or policymakers. It is a way of thinking and a tool that shapes everyday decisions,” he said.

Dr. Ranatunga noted that modern health challenges are increasingly interconnected, ranging from infectious diseases such as COVID-19 to climate-related risks, demographic shifts, and emerging forms of online violence.

He warned that maternal and newborn health continues to demand urgent attention despite progress. Globally, an estimated 260,000 women died from pregnancy and childbirth-related causes in 2023 alone—many of them preventable through timely, science-based interventions.

“In countries like Sri Lanka, where fertility rates are declining and survival rates improving, every pregnancy carries greater significance—not just for families, but for the future of communities and economies,” he said.

The UNFPA official also highlighted the growing threat of Technology Facilitated Gender-Based Violence (TFGBV), including cyber harassment and online abuse, noting that these forms of violence can have deep psychological consequences despite lacking visible physical harm.

He emphasised the need for multidisciplinary, science-informed approaches that integrate mental health, digital safety, and survivor-centered care.

Turning to demographic trends, Dr. Ranatunga pointed out that increasing life expectancy is bringing new challenges, particularly the rise of non-communicable diseases such as diabetes, cardiovascular illnesses, and cancers.

In Sri Lanka, nearly 13.9% of mothers develop diabetes during pregnancy, a trend attributed to obesity and unhealthy lifestyles, underscoring the urgent need for preventive healthcare strategies.

“Are we investing enough in prevention?” he asked, noting that early intervention and healthier lifestyles could significantly reduce long-term healthcare costs, especially in a country with a free public healthcare system.

He underscored the importance of data-driven policymaking, stating that scientific research and analytics enable governments to identify gaps, anticipate future needs, and allocate resources more effectively.

The UNFPA, he said, is already leveraging tools such as Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to improve access to maternal healthcare, including mapping travel times for pregnant women to reach health facilities.

Digital innovation is also transforming healthcare delivery, from telemedicine to real-time data systems, improving efficiency and ensuring continuity of care even during emergencies.

In Sri Lanka, partnerships between the government and development agencies are helping to modernise training institutions, including facilities in Batticaloa, equipping healthcare workers with both clinical and digital skills.

However, Dr. Ranatunga cautioned that technology alone is not a solution.

“It must be guided by evidence and grounded in equity,” he said, pointing out that women’s health remains significantly underfunded, with only about 7% of global healthcare research focusing on conditions specific to women.

He also drew attention to the growing health impacts of climate change, including extreme weather, food insecurity, and displacement, describing it as an emerging public health crisis.

“Health does not begin in hospitals. It is shaped by the environments we live in, the choices we make, and the systems we build,” he said.

Calling for renewed commitment, Dr. Ranatunga urged stakeholders to invest in prevention, embrace innovation, and ensure that science remains central to policy and practice.

“Science is not just about knowledge—it is about ensuring that everyone has the opportunity to live healthy, dignified lives, and that no one is left behind,” he added.

 

By Ifham Nizam

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Sharing the festive joy with ‘Awurudu Kaale’

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The visually impaired who make up Bright Light Band in Awurudu attire

Melantha Perera is well known as a very versatile musician.

He was involved with the band Mirage, as their keyboardist/vocalist, and was also seen in action with other outfits, as well, before embarking on a trip to Australia, as a solo artiste.

I now hear that he has plans to operate as a trio.

However, what has got many talking about Melantha, these days, is his awesome work with the visually impaired Bright Light Band.

They have worked out a special song for the Sinhala and Tamil New Year, aptly titled ‘Awurudu Kaale.

Says Melantha: “This song has been created to celebrate the spirit of the Sinhala and Tamil New Year and to share the joy of the Awurudu season with all Sri Lankans”.

Yes, of course, Melantha composed the song, with the lyrics written collaboratively by Melantha, Badra, and the parents of the talented performers, whose creative input brought the song to life during moments of inspiration.

Melantha Perera: Awesome work with Bright Light Band

This meaningful collaboration reflects the strong community behind the Bright Light Band.

According to Melantha, accompaning the song is a vibrant video production that also features the involvement of the parents, highlighting unity, joy, and togetherness.

Beyond showcasing their musical talents, the visually impaired members of Bright Light Band deliver a powerful message, through this project, that their abilities extend beyond singing, as they also express themselves through movement and dance.

Melantha expressed his satisfaction with the outcome of the project and looks forward to sharing it with audiences across the country during this festive season.

He went on to say that Bright Light Band extends its sincere gratitude to Bcert Australia for their generous Mian sponsorship, the CEO of the company, Samath Fernando, for his continuous support in making such initiatives possible, and Rukshan Perera for his personal support and encouragement in bringing this project to completion.

The band also acknowledges Udara Fernando for his invaluable contribution, generously providing studio space and accommodating extended recording sessions to suit the children’s availability.

Appreciation is warmly extended to the parents, whose unwavering commitment from ensuring attendance at rehearsals to supporting the video production has been instrumental in the success of this project.

Through ‘Awurudu Kaale’, Bright Light Band hopes to spread festive cheer and inspire audiences, proving that passion and talent know no boundaries.

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