Without more food aid or the ability to import wheat, Syria’s hunger crisis is set to worsen dramatically, warned Piro Tomaso Perri, FAO’s senior programme officer for Syria.

“Food insecurity could reach unprecedented levels by late 2025 into mid-2026,” he said, noting that more than 14 million Syrians – six in 10 people – are already struggling to eat enough. Of those, 9.1 million face acute hunger, including 1.3 million in severe conditions, while 5.5 million risk sliding into crisis without urgent intervention.

The same report showed rainfall has dropped by nearly 70%, crippling 75% of Syria’s rain-fed farmland.

“This is the difference between families being able to stay in their communities or being forced to migrate,” Mr Perri said. “For urban households, it means rising bread prices. For rural families, it means the collapse of their livelihoods.”

Farming families are already selling livestock to supplement lost incomes from wheat, reducing their number of daily meals, and there has been a rise in malnutrition rates among children and pregnant women.

Yet, the implications of the drought stretch far beyond the thousands of kilometres of barren farmlands.

Wheat is a staple crop in Syria. It is the main ingredient for bread and pasta – two food staples that should be low cost foods to families. So with the lack of wheat supply, the cost goes up.

For 39-year-old widow Sanaa Mahamid, affording bread has become a massive struggle.

With six children between the ages of nine and 20, she relies on the wages of two sons, but their salaries are not enough to cover the family’s basic expenses.

“Sometimes we borrow money just to buy bread,” she said.

Last year, a bag of bread cost Sanna 500 Syrian pounds ($4.1; £3; €3.5), but now it is 4,500 Syrian pounds. To feed her family, Sanaa needs two bags a day – an expense of 9,000 pounds, before accounting for any other food.

“This is too much. This is just bread, and we still need other things,” she said. “If the price of bread rises again, this will be a big problem. The most important thing is bread.”

The crisis is a challenge for interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, as his administration works to rebuild Syria in the aftermath of the 14-year conflict and the removal of former leader Bashar al-Assad in December 2024.

International agencies, like the UN World Food Programme (WFP), are rushing to step in alongside the government to provide bread subsidies for those at risk of facing severe food insecurity.

But aid officials warn that subsidies are only a temporary fix, and that the long-term stability of Syria depends on whether farmers can stay on their land and sustain production.

“We’re trying to keep people in the farming game,” Marianne Ward, the WFP’s country director for Syria, said. She has worked to give $8m (£6m; €6.9m) in direct payments to small farmers – about 150,000 people – who lost all of their crops.

“If you’re not going to make money, you’re going to leave the land. And then you’re not going to have people who are going to be working in the agriculture sector which is essential for the economy,” she said

But after more than a decade of war, Syria’s agricultural sector was already battered by economic collapse, destroyed irrigation systems, and mined fields.

Dr Ali Aloush, the agriculture director for the Deir al-Zour region, Syria’s breadbasket, said wheat fields needed to be irrigated four to six times per season, but that due to lack of rain, most farmers could not keep up.

“The farmer’s primary concern is first securing water and water requires fuel. The fuel price skyrocketed. It reached to 11,000 to 12,000 Syrian pounds per litre,” Dr Aloush said.

The high price of fuel and power cuts meant water pumps were out of reach, and many growers were already burdened with debt.

Dr Aloush says a priority for his department and the transitional government in Damascus is putting money into irrigation projects – like solar powered drips – that will make water more accessible to farmers.

But projects like that take time and money – luxuries wheat farmers do not currently have.

So for millions of Syrians across the country, there is only one thing to do in the coming months: pray for rain.

[BBC]