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SL can avert 18,000 deaths by Jan. 2022 if lockdowns are imposed: WHO experts

The 5th Independent Expert Group Meeting, convened by WHO Sri Lanka, has said Sri Lanka will be able to avert about 18,000 deaths by Jan 2022 only if the level of stringency is immediately increased similar to May 2021, for four weeks.
The experts have said that lockdowns will give authorities time to accelerate vaccination and achieve the level of protection following the second dose of vaccines, and enable the health system to recover from the overwhelming case load.
“Immediate actions are crucial and critical because it takes a few weeks before measures show a positive impact on the number of infections and hospital admissions. Any delay in implementation will lead to an increase in deaths and will require even more stringent measures with longer duration to regain control,” they said in their report handed over to the Health Ministry on Thursday.
They also recommended the government to; 1. Strictly enforce movement restrictions, including inter-district travel except for essential services. The effective implementation of these measures may require the enforcement of a curfew for a short period, in large geographic areas or nationally.
2. Restrict /cancel all public events for 3 weeks.
3. Provide care and protect the health workers and augment staffing in hospitals to minimize disruption of essential health services.
4. Develop and implement an effective communication plan to engage the public and to update them on the control measures.
5. Accurate reporting of both cases and deaths to get a better picture of the ground situation. May also use proxy indicators such as observed Test Positivity Rate (TPR), trends measured using weekly moving averages and time series analysis, mobility data, etc.
6. Prioritize vaccinating all those over 60 years old and those with comorbidities, preferably with Pfizer, Moderna or AstraZeneca because even a single dose of these vaccines provides some degree of protection until the second dose is given.
Below are excerpts of the recommendations of the Expert Group: “The Experts noted with great concern the current surge in COVID-19, nearly overwhelming the capacity of the health systems to provide the required adequate care for the people. The trends given below indicate that Sri Lanka could soon face a health crisis of unprecedented proportions.
“Sri Lanka is showing a rapid increase in daily reported number of cases and deaths (111 deaths reported on 09 August 2021 representing a doubling of deaths in a short space of time).
” Bed occupancy rates at all levels of care facilities (over 85%) and ICU’s (over 90%) have increased progressively and is now in full capacity. Patients dependent on oxygen have significantly increased from 528 last week to 646 patients yesterday. If this trend continues, there is an inevitability of a serious shortage of oxygen supply and interruption of care.
“Many areas of the country show a high PCR test positivity rate of over 20%.
“As of 31 July 2021, more than 60% of sequenced samples are Delta variant, which is highly transmissible with a shorter incubation period. It is now the dominant variant in Western Province and will soon spread to other areas. Delta variant spreads rapidly as has been shown in several countries. The crisis will be magnified once Delta variant has spread countrywide because most of the other provinces are not as well vaccinated as the Western province.
” For the vaccine that is used most widely, community vaccination will take 2-3 weeks after the second dose to provide adequate protection from severe disease and death. As of 09 August, less than 15% of the population is fully vaccinated. The newly vaccinated, single-dose vaccinated or unvaccinated groups are at very high risk of severe illness and it is very likely that there will be further increase of cases and deaths, particularly in densely populated areas.
“Significant number of health workers are getting infected with a consequent pressure for curtailment and closure of services. All indications are that the “Amidst this situation, there is sustained high level of mobility and social mixing among population despite the nationwide restrictions (Oxford ‘Stringency Index’ was 85% (i.e. very effective restrictions in movement) in May, 49% in July and 29% by this week (i.e. dangerously low levels of movement restrictions).
The figure given in the Appendix and linked pdf shows a very clear inverse relationship between Sri Lanka’s stringency index value (black line) and the number of cases and deaths brown areas.”
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Those who benefited from irregular and unregulated systems are currently opposing the reform efforts of the government – PM

Prime Minister Dr. Harini Amarasuriya stated that those who benefited from irregular and unregulated systems are currently opposing the reform efforts of the government and that the government possesses a coherent and methodical strategy aimed at addressing the public’s concerns through sustainable and permanent solutions, rather than offering temporary responses.
The Prime Minister made these remarks today (03 May), while addressing a public gathering held in the municipalities of Kaduwela and Dehiwala, Mount Lavinia.
Addressing the gathering, Prime Minister further stated:
You are well aware of the state the country was in when we assumed office. It is not only the political culture that necessitated change, but a similar transformation was also required within the public sector. That transformation is currently underway.
In addressing issues such as flooding, our response has been limited to relief services. However, we must move beyond that and implement systems to minimize and manage such disasters. This same pattern where temporary solutions were implemented without proper mechanisms can be seen across all sectors. Similarly, the public service has become accustomed to this ineffective approach.
When systemic reforms are introduced in a culture that is accustomed to disorder, those who previously benefited from the irregularities perceive these changes as a threat to their interests and therefore resist. These groups are attempting to obstruct the process of transformation.
Nevertheless, the country cannot progress under the prevailing methods. It was precisely due to such flawed systems that our economy collapsed. Now, with a methodical and structured approach, the government is steadily restoring economic stability. These systems are being developed to equip the nation to face ongoing and future economic challenges.
Decisions taken by U.S. President Donald Trump has had significant global ramifications, impacting both Europe and Asia. The long-standing belief that certain countries will always dominate the global economy is being challenged. Amidst this shift, new economic opportunities are arising, and Asia is poised to take a leading role in the global economic order. Sri Lanka must therefore determine where it stands within this evolving context. To do so, we must manage our international relations prudently and establish transparent governance systems. Our objective is to achieve long-term stability through these means.
We have not yet been able to fill teacher vacancies, which has led to a crisis. The lack of planning and reactive decision-making have severely affected the education sector. This is indicative of the wider trend across national issues offering surface-level solutions while failing to resolve the underlying causes. It is imperative that this government works in such a way that no unresolved issues are passed on to the next administration.
The grade five Scholarship examination has become a matter of concern. The issue does not lie in the awarding of scholarships, but in the necessity for students to transfer to schools with better facilities in order to access them. To rectify this, the disparities among schools must be addressed. The government has already commenced work in this regard through a planned and coordinated approach.
We continue to identify the problems faced by citizens and develop both short-term and long-term solutions accordingly. Step by step, we are moving forward in rebuilding international confidence, attracting investment, and laying a strong foundation for the country’s future.
The implementation of the law by the police was previously hindered by the political culture which prevailed at the time. These institutional issues are now being rectified.”
The Prime Minister underscored that the establishment of a constructive political culture is essential for the development of the country and that public support is vital in advancing the government’s national development agenda.
[Prime Minister’s Media Division]
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Heat Index at Caution Level at some places in Eastern, Northern and North-central provinces and in Monaragala, Hambantota and Kurunegala districts

Warm Weather Advisory
Issued by the Natural Hazards Early Warning Centre of the Department of Meteorology at 3.30 p.m. 02 May 2025, valid for 03 May 2025
Heat index, the temperature felt on human body is likely to increase up to ‘Caution level’ at some places in Eastern, Northern and North-central provinces and in Monaragala, Hambantota and Kurunegala districts
The Heat Index Forecast is calculated by using relative humidity and maximum temperature and this is the condition that is felt on your body. This is not the forecast of maximum temperature. It is generated by the Department of Meteorology for the next day period and prepared by using global numerical weather prediction model data.
Effect of the heat index on human body is mentioned in the above table and it is prepared on the advice of the Ministry of Health and Indigenous Medical Services.
ACTION REQUIRED
Job sites: Stay hydrated and takes breaks in the shade as often as possible.
Indoors: Check up on the elderly and the sick.
Vehicles: Never leave children unattended.
Outdoors: Limit strenuous outdoor activities, find shade and stay hydrated.
Dress: Wear lightweight and white or light-colored clothing.
Note:
In addition, please refer to advisories issued by the Disaster Preparedness & Response Division, Ministry of Health in this regard as well. For further clarifications please contact 011-7446491.
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President to undertake a state visit to Vietnam on May 04

At the invitation of the President of Vietnam, Luong Cuong, President Anura Kumara Disanayake will undertake a State Visit to Vietnam from May 4 to 6. Accordingly, the President is scheduled to depart Sri Lanka tonight [May 3].
This visit marks the celebration of 55 years of diplomatic relations between Sri Lanka and Vietnam and is expected to further strengthen the long-standing bilateral ties between the two nations.
During the visit, President Disanayake will hold official discussions with the President and Prime Minister of Vietnam. He is also scheduled to meet with senior dignitaries, including the General Secretary of the Communist Party.
President Anura Kumara Disanayake will also participate as the Chief Guest at the United Nations Vesak Day celebrations, scheduled to commence on May 6 in Ho Chi Minh City, where he will deliver the keynote address.
Several Memorandums of Understanding and Agreements are expected to be signed during the visit and discussions will be held with the Vietnamese business community to explore avenues for enhanced cooperation.
Minister of Foreign Affairs, Foreign Employment and Tourism, Vijitha Herath, along with a delegation of senior government officials, will accompany President Disanayake on this official visit.
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