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SL can avert 18,000 deaths by Jan. 2022 if lockdowns are imposed: WHO experts

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The 5th Independent Expert Group Meeting, convened by WHO Sri Lanka, has said Sri Lanka will be able to avert about 18,000 deaths by Jan 2022 only if the level of stringency is immediately increased similar to May 2021, for four weeks.

The experts have said that lockdowns will give authorities time to accelerate vaccination and achieve the level of protection following the second dose of vaccines, and enable the health system to recover from the overwhelming case load.

“Immediate actions are crucial and critical because it takes a few weeks before measures show a positive impact on the number of infections and hospital admissions. Any delay in implementation will lead to an increase in deaths and will require even more stringent measures with longer duration to regain control,” they said in their report handed over to the Health Ministry on Thursday.

They also recommended the government to; 1. Strictly enforce movement restrictions, including inter-district travel except for essential services. The effective implementation of these measures may require the enforcement of a curfew for a short period, in large geographic areas or nationally.

2. Restrict /cancel all public events for 3 weeks.

3. Provide care and protect the health workers and augment staffing in hospitals to minimize disruption of essential health services.

4. Develop and implement an effective communication plan to engage the public and to update them on the control measures.

5. Accurate reporting of both cases and deaths to get a better picture of the ground situation. May also use proxy indicators such as observed Test Positivity Rate (TPR), trends measured using weekly moving averages and time series analysis, mobility data, etc.

6. Prioritize vaccinating all those over 60 years old and those with comorbidities, preferably with Pfizer, Moderna or AstraZeneca because even a single dose of these vaccines provides some degree of protection until the second dose is given.

Below are excerpts of the recommendations of the Expert Group: “The Experts noted with great concern the current surge in COVID-19, nearly overwhelming the capacity of the health systems to provide the required adequate care for the people. The trends given below indicate that Sri Lanka could soon face a health crisis of unprecedented proportions.

“Sri Lanka is showing a rapid increase in daily reported number of cases and deaths (111 deaths reported on 09 August 2021 representing a doubling of deaths in a short space of time).

” Bed occupancy rates at all levels of care facilities (over 85%) and ICU’s (over 90%) have increased progressively and is now in full capacity. Patients dependent on oxygen have significantly increased from 528 last week to 646 patients yesterday. If this trend continues, there is an inevitability of a serious shortage of oxygen supply and interruption of care.

“Many areas of the country show a high PCR test positivity rate of over 20%.

“As of 31 July 2021, more than 60% of sequenced samples are Delta variant, which is highly transmissible with a shorter incubation period. It is now the dominant variant in Western Province and will soon spread to other areas. Delta variant spreads rapidly as has been shown in several countries. The crisis will be magnified once Delta variant has spread countrywide because most of the other provinces are not as well vaccinated as the Western province.

” For the vaccine that is used most widely, community vaccination will take 2-3 weeks after the second dose to provide adequate protection from severe disease and death. As of 09 August, less than 15% of the population is fully vaccinated. The newly vaccinated, single-dose vaccinated or unvaccinated groups are at very high risk of severe illness and it is very likely that there will be further increase of cases and deaths, particularly in densely populated areas.

“Significant number of health workers are getting infected with a consequent pressure for curtailment and closure of services. All indications are that the “Amidst this situation, there is sustained high level of mobility and social mixing among population despite the nationwide restrictions (Oxford ‘Stringency Index’ was 85% (i.e. very effective restrictions in movement) in May, 49% in July and 29% by this week (i.e. dangerously low levels of movement restrictions).

The figure given in the Appendix and linked pdf shows a very clear inverse relationship between Sri Lanka’s stringency index value (black line) and the number of cases and deaths brown areas.”



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Civil society activist accuses govt. of favouring Ven. Gnanasara

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Galagodaatte Gnanasara / Viyangoda

Court of Appeal issues warrant for monk’s arrest

by Shamindra Ferdinando

Civil society activist Gamini Viyangoda on Monday (28) lambasted the NPP government for its failure to act promptly on the Supreme Court cancelling the presidential pardon granted to the General Secretary of Bodu Bala Sena (BBS) Galagodaatte Gnanasara.

Addressing a gathering at the Sri Lanka Foundation to mark the launch of ‘Rajapaksha Samagama’ and ‘Pasku Praharaye Thoththa Babala’ by Lasantha Ruhununuge and Tharindu Uduwaragedara and M.F.M., Faseer, Viyangoda alleged that President Dissanayake’s government was also acting in a manner partial to Gnanasara Thera, the way all previous governments had done.

The NPP should be ashamed of its pathetic failure to act swiftly and decisively, immediately after the Supreme Court revoked President Maithripala Sirisena’s pardon. Viyangoda said that the government owed an explanation as to why law enforcement authorities couldn’t apprehend Gnanasara, following the announcement made on 14 Sept. “For two weeks what were they doing,” he asked.

Ven. Gnanasara was sentenced, in 2018, for a six-year period for contempt of court and intimidating Sandya Eknaligoda, the wife of Prageeth Eknaligoda who disappeared in 2010. But, President Sirisena pardoned him before the convicted monk completed one year of his six-year term.

Viyangoda said that Ven. Gnanasara had openly moved about freely, launched a book and acted as if the Supreme Court ruling didn’t have any impact. Every minute Gnanasara stayed in the open it was an affront to the Supreme Court, Viyangoda said, accusing the government of shielding a wrongdoer.

Referring to certain incidents during the Yahapalana time, Viyangoda revealed that he personally sought the then Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s direct intervention to have Ven. Gnanasara, hiding at a faraway temple, apprehended. “I met Wickremesinghe at Temple Trees. When I raised the failure on the part of police to apprehend Gnanasara, Wickremasinghe immediately called Sagala Ratnayake, who was in charge of public security at that time. Ratnayake promised to take the monk to custody the following day. The next day, Gnanasara surrendered through a lawyer.”

Viyangoda alleged that the Wickremesinghe government had shielded Vem. Gnanasara. The Wickremesinghe-Sagala Ratnayaka duo did that in style, he said, accusing the present government, too, of doing the same.

The Court of Appeal yesterday (29) issued a warrant for the arrest of Gnanasara Thera and ordered that he be produced before the court on 1 Oct.

The court further directed that the warrant be executed through the Inspector General of Police.

This happened when a motion filed by the Attorney General, seeking an order to enforce the prison sentence imposed on Gnanasara Thera, was taken up before the Court of Appeal.

The motion was heard before a Court of Appeal bench, comprising Justices Mayadunne Corea and Lakmali Karunanayake.

President’s Counsel Anura Meddegoda, appearing for Gnanasara Thera, told the court that his client was resting due to illness and requested a date to study the motion and make submissions.

But State Counsel Sajith Bandara declared that the matter concerned a criminal case and requested that the court issue a warrant if the accused failed to appear before the court.

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More cops than cones

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Colombo’s bus priority lane rule returned today, 29 September, as a pilot programme across the city and nearby areas. It applies from 6 a.m. to 9 a.m. and from 4 p.m. to 7 p.m. daily. The renewed operation covers seven designated lanes, meant to cut delays and make public transport more predictable.

Transport Minister Bimal Rathnayake said officials would monitor the trial to assess its effect on congestion and public transport efficiency. Police have told all officers to take legal action against violators. Drivers may enter a lane only in unavoidable cases, such as emergencies, exceptionally heavy traffic, or to cross it when turning.

The Lanka Private Bus Owners’ Association has welcomed the move, and Metro Bus is adding five new routes.

The rule has been revived before, and past efforts struggled with enforcement, so the pilot project’s results will matter.

(Image courtesy Hiru)

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Sajith accuses govt. of using data selectively in crucial report

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Sajith Premadasa

Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa has said the government is attempting to paint a falsely beautiful picture of the country’s situation through the Socio-Economic Data report issued together with the Census and Statistics and the Central Bank. “They have selectively included certain information while intentionally omitting other vital facts,” Premadasa has said in a media statement. When presenting data, there must be chronological consistency and integrity. The Central Bank and the Department of Census and Statistics have no right to present outdated data to formulate a conclusion, thereby marginalising an entire segment of the population, Premadasa has argued, pointing out that their primary duty is to report accurate information to the public.

Premadasa says that up to page 18 of the report, recent data from 2023 to 2025 have been used. For main economic indicators, macroeconomic indicators, demographic data, and life expectancy, 2024 data have been used. Indicators such as external trade finance, consumer price indices, Real GDP, imports and exports, prosperity indices, and human development indices have also been compared with Asian and SAARC countries using recent data. However, for the section detailing socio-economic conditions from page 19 to page 34, the data used are exclusively from the outdated 2016–2019 period.

When discussing socio-economic conditions, the data used for household income and expenditure surveys, provincial-level conditions, housing facilities, energy consumption, cooking, and population distribution are entirely from 2016 to 2019, the Opposition Leader has said. Specifically, the data on poverty mentioned on page 33, and even the data on per capita daily food consumption capacity on page 34, belong to this old 2016–2019 timeframe. Formulating a report for the year 2026 using such outdated data is a deliberate attempt to mislead the country and its people.

Premadasa says that from page 35 onwards, fresh 2025 data have been used for sections on prosperity, demographics, the labour force, and employment. Recent data based on current market conditions have also been provided for Gross National Income (GNI) by industrial sources, food prices, imports and exports, tourism, government revenue, state debt, and interest rates.

“If the authorities can present recent data (for 2023, 2024, and 2025) for foreign debt, financial activities, financial sector trends, and money supply, why are they using 2016 and 2019 data for poverty to mislead the country?” the Opposition Leader has asked, pointing out that the main report and its summary prove that while the government uses updated data for macroeconomic aspects, it uses obsolete data regarding poverty, inequality, income distribution, and living standards. The Opposition Leader has called this a historic deception regarding the country’s poverty, asking whether the 12.11.2026 Budget will be on these false data?

Premadasa has said that the government claims that a person can survive for 30 days on Rs. 17,315, which is an absolute lie and a deception. “This Government lacks updated data or definitions for poverty. Since the country went bankrupt, a proper household income and expenditure survey has not been conducted, nor has the poverty line been accurately identified.” He questioned whether the upcoming budget, scheduled for 12.11.2026, will be based on these false and flawed data.

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