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Quo Vadis Sri Lanka Tourism, Post Covid-19?

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By Srilal Miththapala

There seems to be conflicting ideas as to how tourism should be promoted in the short term, in the post Covid -19 arena. A wide range of good initiatives have been proposed from various experts. We must not get carried away by emotion, and resort to ‘crystal ball gazing’, but make our plans, based on evidence and research.

What seems to be overlooked is the need to properly understand the post Covid-19 consumer behaviour, and only focus source markets. Finally, it is the consumer who will decide, whoever he may be.

The bottom line is that the ‘tourism world’ is not going to come back to normal for quite some time. Like everything else in our lives, consumers also will respond in a ‘new normal’ framework. Hence applying our traditional marketing strategies will not necessarily work in this uncertain environment. Many may accuse me of being a pessimist. But I would like to be understood as a pragmatist.

This essay will try to analyse the consumer mind set in the post CoVid-19 scenario, and then try to develop what marketing strategies would work to match these consumer needs.

1.0 Introduction

The coronavirus crisis is having massive impacts on the tourism industry—many of which will reshape the industry’s future landscape. What actions should the stakeholders of this industry be taking today from a marketing and communications perspective? The truth is no one knows for sure. We are all in the dark. However, a business-as-usual approach is almost certainly wrong because there is nothing “usual” about this new life we’re all living and what’s happening to the tourism industry right now.

Just when the crisis seemed to be abating, we are now hit by a new variant of the virus that could have more disastrous impact. However, initial reports indicate that although it could be more infections than the Delta strain, the severity of the illness is probably less severe. It is still uncertain how different countries will respond to this new challenge.

2.0 Tourism Recovery

A recent global survey of UNWTO tourism experts on the recovery of travel shows a slight increase in confidence with 60 percent of consumers saying they expect to see a rebound in international tourism by 2022, versus just 50 percent in an earlier January 2021 survey.

In spite of this slight boost in confidence, nearly half of the respondents said that they did not expect international tourism to return to 2019 levels until 2024 or later. Similarly, 37 percent fewer respondents now believe 2023 could be the full recovery year.

In another study by Deloitte’s for Australia Tourism, there were three different scenarios presented.

Mild (best case) – international arrivals return to 2019 level by 2022.

Harsh (probable) – International tourist arrivals return to 2019 level by 2023.

Severe (worst case) – International arrivals return to 2019 level by 2025.

Boston Consulting Group predicts that travel won’t rebound to 2019 levels until 2023 or 2024. “The tourism business is driven by the great intangible of consumer confidence. Regardless of therapeutics or vaccine availability, second or third waves, or the efficacy of safety protocols, the industry won’t fully recover until travellers and service providers do so psychologically.”

Hence most studies indicate that it will be 2023 by the time tourism recovers to pre Covid-19 levels.

(it must be noted that all such studies were done before the new Omicron outbreak and how that is going to impact consumer sentiment is still to be seen.)

To expect arrival numbers to reach the pre Covid-19 of about 100,000 – 150,000 per month in the next 12 months in Sri Lanka is a pipe dream. (We have just reached 100,000 arrivals for the year, only about 7% of pre Covid-19 days)

Hence, its high time that stakeholders accept that full recovery of tourism is going to be another 12-18 months away.

Tourism professionals should take cognisance of this, and plan for it. They should adjust their strategies, accordingly, to survive and make the best of the situation in the short term. This does not mean that there will be no tourism in 2021. Certainly, there will be, and what will follow in this essay, is to try and understand the consumer mind-set of these travellers, who would venture out in spite of certain uncertainties.

(TTRW: MADRID, 2 December 2021: One out of five destinations continue to have their borders completely closed as new surges of Covid-19 impact the restart of international tourism, while the WHO declaration identifying Omicron as a variant of concern will prompt additional restrictions.

The latest UNWTO research shows that still 98% of all destinations have some travel restrictions in place.)

3.0 Marketing in the short term after Covid-19

It is needless to say that under such circumstances where survival would be the focus, positioning and branding will have to take a back seat. But that does not mean to say that planning should stop. The time could be spent by all stakeholders to properly develop a positioning for the country and to ‘extract out’ what our real USP is. At a recent webinar I heard suggestions for a whole range of ‘unique propositions’ from cultural pageants, wildlife, nature, environment, food, wellness, ‘experience,’ etc. (there is a misnomer in considering ‘experience’ as a category. It is true that most tourists pay great emphasis on experience. But the ‘experience’ should cut across every category, be it wild life, wellness or food).

Obviously, Sri Lanka as a destination cannot be ‘everything for everyone’. Sometimes I think this blessing of a range of natural attractions, is Sri Lanka tourism’s problem. We have too much! Because we are blessed with a plethora of natural beauty and attractions, it’s easy to be carried away, and try to promote everything. It is my humble opinion that even launching the muchtalked- about Global Campaign is not advisable at this time. It is true that we have waited a long time for this. But is the market ready for it at this juncture?

The need of the hour is a short-term push marketing initiative, to ‘push’ the product and service attributes of Sri Lanka that will appeal to the prospective travellers in this uncertain market environment. The ‘pull’ marketing strategy, whereby we reach out to travellers with our brand attributes and unique propositions to create new customers, should follow thereafter, once some form of proper and consistent normalcy has arrived.

So the priority in the short term is the need for a strong communication programme to reach out to the smaller, specific segments of consumers who would consider traveling in next 12-18 months.

The ‘tourism cake’ has shrunk. And everyone (all tourism destinations) are trying to get a share.

So how does Sri Lanka reach out and get a bigger share of this cake?

4.0 The need for evidence-based decision-making.

SL tourism has never given too much prominence to research and evidence-based decision-making. I guess it is no surprise when the leadership of the whole country depends on soothsayers and astrologers and quack–brewed concoctions to rid the CoVid19 virus, while the sane voices of the professionals are given a deaf ear.

But then again tourism is such an interesting subject that everyone from streetside vendors to desk-based government bureaucrats and inexperienced and clueless ministers, are experts on the subject. Even tourism professionals tend to lean on their old experiences and emotions, rather than, on good research. The need for a private -public sector partnered tourism research unit has been talked about ad nauseam. (I myself have presented many proposals for such an initiative over the past years.)

The crying need of the hour (and of course in the long term as well) is to have good reliable feedback about the tourism market. Would it be difficult to interview the few tourists who are coming to Sri Lanka at the airport? Why did they decide to travel? Why did they choose Sri Lanka? Were they satisfied with their stay?, etc.

Such simple questions will give feedack which will be so useful to tweak our offering and to be more focused on our future promotional efforts. The importance should be on the return on every dollar spent on promotion in these difficult times, and not on the value of the promotion.

5.0 Short Term ‘Push’ Marketing –

Segmentation

In trying to develop such a communication plan, (I use the word plan and not strategy since it is short term oriented) the first focus should be on the tourism consumer. One way to segment the traveller would be based on mind-set.

5.1 The Potential

travellers.

The possible consumer segments in the immediate post-Covid-19 era and their general characteristics could be as follows-

‘Devil may care’ traveller

The impetuous, young, adventurous risk takers. Not concerned about pandemic. Possibly with limited financial resources. (The conventional backpackers would also fall into this category but their monetary standing, post- CoVid-19 may be wanting)

‘Tread carefully’‘ traveller

Earns to travel. Will check all pros and cons on social media and other media channels and make careful decisions about travelling. Possibly young/middle aged, well-educated with adequate disposable income.

‘Wait and See’ traveller

Ultra-safety conscious and anxious about travelling. Possibly middle aged or Senior citizens, families with young children. Adequate financial resources.

It is evident that the segment who would travel under current prevailing circumstances would be predominately the ‘Devil-may-care’ Traveller, and to a lesser degree the ‘Tread carefully’ traveller segment. It will be quite a while before the ‘Wait and see’ traveller ventures out, and therefore there is no point in spending resources in engaging that category.

Hence it is not rocket science to conclude that a short term push marketing initiative must be specifically targeted at these two segments.

5.2 The Generic Consumer segments (Generational profiling)

The usually accepted generic consumer demographic segments are-

Silent Generation -Born 1925-1945; Current Ave. age 80’s- Small size

= Hard working

=Conservative

= Healthy, and most educated

= Wealthiest generation

Baby Boomers – Born 1945-1960; Current Ave. age 70’s-Medium size

= Larger families

= Non traditional

= Physically fit

= Wealthy

= Leisure activities

Generation X –Born 1960-1980; Current Ave. age 50’s-Large size

= Enjoy creative input and resourceful

= Embrace technology and social media

= Strong emphasis on family time and work-life balance

= Hard working

= Financially well off

= Comfortable with technology

Generation Y (Millennials)-Born 1980-1990; Current Ave. age 30’s-Large size

= Diverse

= Impatient

= Creative

= Multi-taskers

= Internet and social media part of their lives

= Reasonably wealthy

Generation Z – Born 1990-present; Current Ave. age< 30’s- Medium size

= Self-reliant

= Risk takers

= Can be suspicious of larger corporations

= Not too brand loyal

= Short span of interest

=Fully ‘wired’ almost always

= Reliant on social media platforms

= Very concerned about environment, ethics and social wellbeing of people

Although this categorisation is predominantly relevant to developed countries, with globalisation and the spread of the internet, it is valid for most emerging countries as well.

The types of traveller identified earlier can now be matched with the generation profile characterises to help target the required segment, with an appropriate and relevant commination initiative.

This indicates that the market segments most likely to travel in the short term are

Gen Z (medium size)

Gen Y (large size)

Gen X –to a lesser extent (Large size)

6.0 Short Term ‘Push’ Marketing- The Communication

So how do you reach out to the Generation Z’s and Y’s ?

The answer is to study their inherent characteristics, and respond accordingly to what motivates them.

 The platform must necessary be digital.

 The medium must be internet based. Social media, blogs, etc. (Brochures, print media and trade fairs will not work. Even Facebook is outdated)

 The message should be based around-

= Health and Safety. ( this will be of paramount importance to all segments)

= Short and sweet, to the point

= Authentic and reliable

= Personalised, small scale programs

= Meaningful stories

= More pictures & Videos

= Highlight social and community benefits

= Ethical travel themes

= Travel for a cause

= Environment, outdoor,

= Nature and wildlife

= Off the beaten track

= Wellness and meditation/yoga

Hence once an analytical approach is taken to identify key market segments based on demographics it will be easier to target the desired travellers with a cost effective communications programme.

6.0 Conclusion

In the foregoing I have attempted to show how an analytical approach based on good consumer data, could be, designed and implemented. This is by no means a perfect model, and is presented only as an example. Professional markers will be able to design more comprehensive initiatives. The important fact is that needs to be highlighted is that we must break out of our shackles of being the ‘know-it-all s’ and reach out to good research and information to base our plans on.

Otherwise, Sri Lanka Tourism will continue to blunder around with its’ sawn off double-barrelled shot gun, spraying bullets all over, hitting only a rare target or two’.



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Opinion

The passing away of a great cellist

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Rohan de Seram

by Satyajith Andradi

The Oxford Dictionary of Music compiled by Michael Kennedy is an invaluable source of reference material on the whole gamut of western classical music. Its 1994 second edition has the following entry on Rohan De Saram, in its usual telegraphic language : “De Saram, Rohan ( b Sheffield, 1939 ). Sri Lankan cellist. Studied in Florence with Cassado and later with Casals in Puerto Rico. After European recitals made Amer. Debut in NY, 1960. Settled in Eng. 1972, joining teaching staff of TCL. Wide repertory from Haydn to Xenakis, specializing in contemp. works. Cellist of *Arditti String Quartet.” Rohan De Saram is certainly one of the greatest musicians Sri Lanka has ever produced. He passed away in the UK on 29th September 2024 at the age of 85.

I had the good fortune to see this great musician perform in two occasions. The first was way back in 1975, when my parents took me to see his cello recital, which was given at the newly opened BMICH on 16th August that year. The second was when I took my daughter to his concert at the British Council auditorium on 27th February 2007. There was a marked difference in the type of music he performed at the two recitals. The 1975 programme was dominated by the music of Rachmaninov, Schubert, and Shostakovich, with the first movement of Zoltan Kodaly’s Sonata for Solo Cello added as a sort of outlier. It belonged to the traditional western music repertoire, if you like. In contrast, the 2007 concert was dominated by more contemporary music, although it included pieces by Bach, Beethoven, Rimsky Korsakov, Gabriel Faure, Saint Sean, and Benjamin Britten. The highlights of the evening were Luciano Berio’s Sequenza 14 for solo cello, a through and through avant garde work, and the last two movements of Kodaly’s Sonata for Solo Cello. Needless to say, the two programmes reflected the tremendous change in Rohan De Saram’s artistic orientation from being a performer of classics to that of avant garde music by composers such as Iannis Xenakis and Luciano Berio.

Rohan De Saram was born in the UK on 9th March 1939. He belonged to a well-to-do cultured family. Due to the outbreak of the Second World War, he had to spend much of his early childhood in Sri Lanka. As he showed a special gift for cello playing, he was taken to Europe for his musical education. Initially he studied cello under the renowned Spanish cellist and composer Gaspar Cassado in Florence, Italy. His first appearance as a soloist at the Royal Festival Hall in London was at the age of sixteen. This was followed by performances as soloist at London’s Wigmore Hall and Royal Albert Hall. Winning the Guilhermina Suggia award, enabled him to take master classes from the great Spanish cellist and composer Pablo Casals, who wrote of him: “There are few of his generation who have such gifts” and ” Rohan is already a remarkable cellist of fine technique and musical taste. I can predict for him a brilliant career.”

Casals’ prophesies were to come true. Rohan De Saram had his Carnegie Hall debut at the age of 20. He went on to perform as a soloist with many of the world’s leading orchestras such as the London Symphony Orchestra, the London Philharmonic Orchestra, the Royal Philharmonic Orchestra, and the New York Philharmonic Orchestra under the leadership of renowned conductors such as Adrian Boult, Malcolm Sargent, John Barbirolli, Colin Davis, and Zubin Mehta. During this early period of his career, he was essentially a virtuoso performer of the classics. However, joining the Arditti Quartet in he late 70s as its cellist signaled a turning point in his musical orientations. This quartet specialized in contemporary avant garde music. Henceforth, the main focus of Rohan De saram was on the works of avant garde composers such as Iannis Xenakis and Luciano Berio. He was a member of the Arditti Quartet from 1979 to 2005. As a virtuoso cellist of international renown, he introduced contemporary music to numerous musical audiences throughout the world. His passing away leaves a void in the musical firmament.

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Opinion

UK’s deal with Mauritius will be a win for all

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Location of the Chagos archipelago (circled) Wikipedia

Freedom for Chagos islands:

by Peter Harris
Associate Professor of Political Science,
Colorado State University

Britain is close to resolving its territorial dispute with Mauritius over the Chagos Archipelago, located in the central Indian Ocean.

For years, Mauritius has claimed the island group as part of its sovereign territory. It says that Britain unlawfully detached the islands from Mauritius in 1965, three years before Mauritius gained independence. The Mauritian position is backed by international courts and the United Nations, creating enormous pressure for Britain to decolonise.

London, however, has been reluctant to abandon the Chagos Archipelago. This is because the largest island, Diego Garcia, is the site of a strategically important US military base. Britain pledged to make Diego Garcia available to its American ally and has been anxious to avoid a situation where it is prevented from making good on these promises.

The US, for its part, has declined to become publicly involved in the dispute. Its private position is merely that the base on Diego Garcia should not be placed in jeopardy.

In a deal announced in a joint statement, London and Port Louis have agreed that all but one of the Chagos Islands will be returned to Mauritian control as soon as a treaty can be finalised. This comes after nearly two years of intense negotiations. It seems as though settling the dispute was a top priority for Britian’s new Labour government.

Though the deal isn’t done yet, it is expected to go through. Both Britain and Mauritius, along with the White House, have endorsed the agreement, indicating that the toughest negotiations are complete.

Diego Garcia will remain under British administration for at least 99 years – this time with the blessing of Mauritius – enabling Britain to continue furnishing the US with unfettered access to its military base on the island.

In exchange for permission to continue on Diego Garcia, Britain will provide “a package of financial support” to Mauritius. The exact sums of money have not been disclosed but will include an annual payment from London to Port Louis. Both sides will cooperate on environmental conservation, issues relating to maritime security, and the welfare of the indigenous Chagossian people – including the limited resettlement of Chagossians onto the outer Chagos Islands under Mauritian supervision.

I’ve studied the Chagos Islands for 15 years, first as a master’s student and now as a professor. It often looked as though this day would never come.

The deal that’s been announced is a good one – a rare “win-win-win-win” moment in international relations, with all the relevant actors able to claim a meaningful victory: Britain, Mauritius, the US, and the Chagossians.

Win for Britain

Britain went into these negotiations with one goal in mind: to bring itself into alignment with international law.

London suffered humiliating setbacks at the permanent court of arbitration in 2015, concerning the legality of its Chagos marine protected area; at the International Court of Justice in 2019, when the World Court found that Mauritius was sovereign over the archipelago; and at the UN general assembly that same year, when a whopping 116 governments called on Britain to exit the Chagos Islands.

Mauritian sovereignty over the Chagos group had even begun to be inscribed into international case law.

London could probably have defied international opinion if it had wanted to. Nobody would have forced Britain to halt its illegal occupation of the Chagos Archipelago. But such a course would have badly undermined Britain’s global reputation and its ability to criticise others for breaches of international law.

This agreement will give Britain exactly what it wanted: a continued presence on Diego Garcia that conforms with international law.

Win for Mauritius

Mauritius, of course, went into these negotiations intent on securing full decolonisation at long last. Britain and the US now recognise that the Chagos Archipelago belongs to Mauritius.

Mauritius will not have day-to-day control of Diego Garcia, but it will be acknowledged as being sovereign there. The public description of the agreement also doesn’t seem to prohibit Mauritius from exercising its sovereignty over Diego Garcia as it relates to non-military domains.

Win for the US

The US is another clear winner from the deal. In fact, hardly anything will change for America. Washington will continue working closely with London, and will not need to negotiate an agreement with Mauritius on its rights to the base or the status of forces.

Indeed, Pentagon officials should be thrilled that their base on Diego Garcia has been put on firm legal footing. This is something that Britain alone was unable to offer. The bilateral agreement with Mauritius will ensure the security of the base for 99 years – no small feat.

Good for Chagos Islanders

Finally, the deal is good for the Chagos Islanders.

British agents forcibly depopulated the entire Chagos group between 1965 and 1973. The point was to rid the archipelago of its permanent population so that the US base on Diego Garcia would operate far from prying eyes. Britain deported the Chagossians to Mauritius and the Seychelles, which is where most Chagossians and their descendants still live. Some have migrated onwards, including to Britain.

Britain had long opposed the resettlement of the Chagos group by the exiled Chagossians. Mauritius, on the other hand, has indicated its openness to resettlement of the Outer Chagos Islands – so, not Diego Garcia – something that Port Louis is now free to pursue.

Not all islanders have welcomed news of an agreement. The Chagossians are a large and diverse group, with differing views about how their homeland should be governed. Some would have preferred Britain to administer the entire archipelago long into the future, feeling that Mauritius was an unwelcoming host to the exiled Chagossians. But Britain could not hold onto the Chagos Islands forever – at least, not lawfully.

For their part, the largest Chagossian organisations are content with the deal as it has been announced, and will now work with Mauritius on a resettlement plan.

The critics

This is the first instance of decolonisation that London has attempted since returning Hong Kong to China in 1997. Predictably, some in Britain are opposed to the settlement.

Some accuse the Keith Starmer government of “giving up” the Chagos Archipelago. But the islands were never Britain’s to give up – they were always Mauritian sovereign territory, and Britain was an unlawful occupier.

They are also wrong to blame this deal for jeopardising the base on Diego Garcia. The opposite is true: for better or worse, the agreement will resolve any uncertainty about the US base’s future. It will have total legal security.

Finally, critics are grasping at straws when they raise the prospect of Mauritius permitting a Chinese base in the Chagos Archipelago. This is a baseless smear. There is no indication whatsoever that Port Louis has any interest in hosting the Chinese military.

What happens now?

Britain and Mauritius still need to reveal the text of their bilateral treaty. But the deal is highly unlikely to fall through. Both governments, plus the White House, have welcomed the agreement – a sure sign that the hard work of negotiations is over.

All that remains is for the treaty to be ratified – a process that does not require a parliamentary vote in the House of Commons. There is no reason why this cannot be done quickly.

This could be the end of a shameful saga that went on for too long.

(Courtesy of The Conversation.)

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Opinion

Dr P R (Ranji) WIKRAMANAYAKE (17 01. 1932 – 30.07.2024)

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A few weeks ago, the Sri Lankan community in Australia lost one its most distinguished sons, Dr P R Wkiramanayake, known as Ranji to his friends, an accomplished and highly regarded endocrinologist. He was 92 years of age and hailed from a distinguished family with its origins in Galle. The ancestry and genealogy of the family is well recorded in the book “Galle as quiet as asleep “(1993) by Norah Roberts.

The elder son of E.G. Wikramanayake, Queens Counsel, Ranji was born into the lap of luxury. Like his father before him, Ranji attended St Thomas College, Mount Lavinia from where he entered the Ceylon Medical School, and from where he graduated, and proceeded to the UK for Post graduate work. On his return from London with the MRCP he was appointed consultant physician at the Out Patients Department of the General Hospital, Colombo.

He soon was interested in the study of diabetes and read a paper at the Plenary Scientific Sessions of the Ceylon college of Physicians, 30 years ago. After serving a Nuffield Fellowship in the UK, he moved to Australia where he worked as Diabetologist at the Prince Edward Hospital.

It was through my close friend and former schoolmate Dr Medduma Kappagoda that I first met Ranji who Kappa brought home one day about 30 years ago, in order to assess my blood sugar. That visit was the foundation on which a strong friendship developed and through which I had the great pleasure of enjoying a dear friendship with his brother Nimal later after I moved to Melbourne.

Ranji lived in the affluent and desirable seaside suburb of Vaucluse and his great hobby was horse racing. His father Guy, a leading Queens Counsel, had owned a string of racehorses in Colombo and was the winner of several trophies when racing was the pastime of “kings and squires”. Ranji too owned at least a couple of thoroughbreds in Sydney whose activities kept him occupied during his leisure.

Ranji married Amara Weerasooria daughter of the late Dr and Mrs SE Weerasooria. Amara was Head Girl of Visakha Vidyalaya and an outstanding netball and tennis player. There combined qualities had to produce extra ordinary children. Their only son Priyan is a popular gastro surgeon in. Bowral, and the two daughters Roshanara a lawyer and Shemara is a highly successful leader in the corporate world of Australia.

It was during the course of last year, and earlier this year that I had close interaction with Ranji. It was during this period that Nimal fell ill and passed away about three months ago. Ranji was highly solicitous of Nimal’s welfare, and chose to convey his medical advice to Nimal through me. Ranji the elder brother was generally of a quiet and unruffled disposition. When Nimal was hospitalized he chose not to disturb him, and instead telephoned me for progress reports. About six weeks ago he rang me from his hospital bed in Prince Edward Hospital where he worked previously, to say in a feeble voice that his heart is failing on him. He left this world a few days later.

Ranji Wikramanayake was of a rare breed, sadly lacking in the old country today. Dedicated to his profession, and guide and guardian to his family, he was honest, hardworking and generous. He was a founder member of the. Ceylon College of Physicians, and a member of the Ceylon Society of Australia for many years until his demise.

A little known aspect of his generosity was his donation of five million rupees in January 2016

to the Ceylon College of Physicians, the interest earned from the donation to be awarded annually to the best research paper on diabetes. Ranji was to personally present the donation, but on their way to Colombo, his wife Amara fell ill and had to return to Australia. He was not a man for excuses and made sure that the gift was made on his behalf by his close friend Tilak de Zoysa. Ranji Wikramanayake certainly earned his rest, may he now rest in peace.

Hugh Karunanayake

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