by Rajan Philips

The general view seems to be that Anura Kumara Dissanayaka and Sajith Premadasa are the clear front runners, but opinions differ as to who is first and who is second depending on which candidate one is rooting for. The general view is also that Ranil Wickremesinghe is running third, but there is no definite indication of how close or far behind he is. Those who support him say that he is surging. But no one is seriously suggesting that either of the front runners could get over 50% to be declared the winner after the first count.

So, for the first time after eight presidential elections, the winner is likely to be determined based on the 2^nd or 3^rd preferential ranks that voters end up marking for either of the first two candidates on the otherwise discarded ballots of the other 36 candidates including the third placed candidate. Importantly, the preferential ranks marked on the ballots of the first two candidates will be discarded and will not be counted against each other!

A run on the Vote Banks

In the 2019 election, Gotabaya Rajapaksa won 52% of the vote, Sajith Premadasa 42%, Anura Kumara Dissanayake 3%, and all others 3%. With Namal Rajapaksa in the fray, the vote for all candidates other than the first three could be significantly higher at 10% or even 15%, leaving 85% or 90% of the votes to be divided among the three main candidates. The vote proportion that Namal Rajapakse manages to get would critically impact what the three main candidates will be able to draw from GR/SLPP’s 52% vote bank.

The biggest loser already is Ranil Wickremesinghe and will lose big unless he is able to get Mahinda Rajapaksa to soften the filial campaign for his son. There could also be some impact on the vote tally of Anura Kumara Dissanayake who is likely drawing the bulk of his expanded new support from the GR/SLPP vote bank. SP too is hoping to draw votes from the same bank, although his primary efforts must be to preserve as much as possible of the 42% sources that he managed in 2019.

RW’s second predicament is that he is not able to peel away as much he would like to from the SP/SJB vote bank. Further, as an independent candidate RW cannot vigorously canvass on old UNP loyalties. The true UNP loyalty hopes for either SP or RW to give up the contest in favour of one of them standing as a single candidate. That is not going to happen. It is not only too late for that, but the voters will also see the cynical ploy in it and punish them by voting for AKD.

There are musings that a good number of those who vote for RW or SP may not choose either man for their second preference, but AKD instead. The palpable reason seems to be that many non-left voters appreciate AKD’s seeming sincerity and his anti-corruption platform but are wary of casting their (first preference) vote for a leftist candidate; hence, the second preference. Another concern about AKD and the NPP among urban middle class voters would appear to be the paucity of information about AKD’s team – especially who would be his economic advisors and who would be his senior ministers in a potential NPP government after the parliamentary election.

That said, Mr. Dissanayake should be commended for positively clarifying on Wednesday, at a meeting in Divulapitiya (as reported in the Daily Mirror, Sept. 4) that the NPP “will not violate the Constitution if elected on September 21,” and that he will continue with the current parliament and government, as required by the Constitution, until parliament is dissolved after one and a half months. But he has promised to make new appointments to the Boards and Commissions of important state agencies on the very morrow of his potential election. That is all appropriate and the people will get an early flavour of a potential NPP government. But we are getting ahead of ourselves here!

All of this is to say something about the simmering vibes that AKD might get a good chunk of second preferential rankings from those who vote for SP or RW. That may prove crucial if preferential votes are counted to determine a winner after an inconclusive (no one passing the 50% mark). Given the way that the 2019 vote banks of GR/SLPP and SP/SJB are expected to be divvied between the three front runners, no candidate is likely to get more than 40% on the first count. And what is also likely when preferentials are added is that whoever comes first after the first count will remain first and be declared the winner.

There is also a possibility, however remote, that one of the two front runners could end up with a clear (50% +) victory depending on how the two vote banks are drawn from. The dynamic here would be that if those voters who are now leaning towards RW or NR sense that it is either SP or AKD who is going to be the eventual winner, they might abandon RW and NR and migrate to SP or AKD and in numbers sufficient enough to make one of them scale the 50% fence.

This would be a substantial swing in the current situation but quite common in parliamentary elections unlike in presidential elections. Sri Lanka alternates between parliamentary and presidential elections and the former still infects the other. That there will be a parliamentary election immediately following creates a situation of permanent election momentum. This again will favour Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake, but not Ranil Wickremesinghe because he is now an independent one-man party with no plan or prospect for the succeeding parliamentary election.

Ethnic Accounts

There are two other layers in the two main vote banks from the 2019 election. One is the district account and the other makes up the ethnic accounts. Of the 22 electoral / administrative districts, Gotabaya Rajapaksa won the majority of the votes in 16 districts, and Sajith Premadasa in six districts that included the two districts in the Northern Province, three in the Eastern Province, and the Nuwara Eliya District in the Central Province. Of the 42% SP polled, nearly 26% was from the six districts – three of which are Sri Lankan Tamil Majority districts, two where Tamils and Muslims constitute the majority, and one includes significant numbers of the Malaiyaha Tamil community.

Including the numbers of the three groups in the other districts (mostly in the Western, Central, and to a lesser extent Southern Provinces) Sajith Premadasa’s tally would have included about 30 to 35% of all of what could be collectively called the Tamil speaking voters. Maintaining this support, or how these voters divide themselves between the candidates in this election, would be critical to Mr. Premadasa’s outcome on September 21. To be clear, issues and considerations will be specific to and vary between three groups, or electorally distinct ethnic accounts.

The 16 districts that Gotabaya Rajapaksa won are Sinhala majority districts and accounted for 93.5% of the 6.9 million people who GR repeatedly asserted voted for him. GR ran as an unabashedly Sinhala Buddhist candidate and convincingly won with 52% of the total votes. His victory exploded the plural presuppositions of the elected presidential system – i.e., a winning presidential candidate will require the support of non-Sinhala voters and must reflect their interests.

The redeeming vacuum in this month’s election is that there is no one running as a Sinhala Buddhist candidate of any claim or consequence. Remarkably, Namal Rajapaksa would seem to have closed that chapter for good in the family political book. Ultra nationalists will have to look elsewhere to discover a new authentic candidate. The aftermaths of the 2019 Easter bombings may have their own reverberations on September 21 and influence the voting of the Sinhala Catholics.

But by and large, the Sinhala majority voters are most likely to be concerned over economic conditions and cost of living issues. Even though a sampled majority of them do not think that any of the three front-running candidates has a convincing approach to navigate through the current crisis. One would hope that this unsurprising negativity will not result in a lower voter turnout. That will be unfortunate, for it is the voting shifts within this segment of voters that will determine the fortunes of the front runners and the eventual outcome.

Put another way, what matters is how the two front runners, as well as Ranil Wickremesinghe and Namal Rajapaksa in their side races, will draw on the Sinhala ethnic account to make up the bulk of their vote tallies. To be sure, there are sub-accounts within this segment based primarily on socioeconomic circumstances along with locational factors. Going by the 2019 results, Gotabaya Rajapaksa obtained more than 50% of the vote in 15 of the 16 districts where he got the majority vote. The lone exception was Badulla, where he got 49.29%. He exceeded 60% in four districts – the three southern districts and Monaragala. He barely passed 50% in Kandy (50.43%) and Puttalam (50.83%); and he got close to 60% (59+%) in three districts – Gampaha, Kalutara and Ratnapura.

On the other hand, Sajith Premadasa exceeded 40% in five of the 16 districts (Badulla, Colombo, Kandy, Polonnaruwa and Puttalam), and came close to 40% in Matale. Five of these districts include significant numbers of Tamil speaking voters, which again demonstrates the extent of his support on this voting segment in the 2019 election. The Easter reverberations could be a factor in the Colombo and Gampaha districts.

Of the three front runners, only Sajith Premadasa has a previous vote base in the 16 districts won by Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2019. How much of that he would be able to keep and how much new votes he could garner in these districts will be critical to his own outcome and the overall result in the election.

The motivations among the Tamil speaking voters will reflect the state of politics among the Tamils, the Muslims and Malaiyaha Tamils. Anura Kumara Dissanayake has insistently taken a direct approach to the three communities and avoided agency mediation through their political organizations. He is also long on the rhetoric of equality but quite short on the specifics of devolution which is an unavoidable spatial frame for achieving equality. That could be a critical factor for the Sri Lankan Tamil voters and among Muslim voters in the Eastern Province.

The main Muslim organizations appear to have joined the camp of Sajith Premadasa, but an aragalaya of young Muslim voters are being anticipated to support Dissanayake. The Malaiyaha Tamil organizations are divided between SP and RW, some of them exchanging blows on television, while AKD would seem to have made direct inroads into this group and might be able draw from their account.

The Sri Lankan Tamil political organizations are in a state of indecision, if not disarray, over deciding whom to support in the election. Last Sunday, there was a formal announcement that the ITAK (Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kadchchi) would be supporting Sajith Premadasa and not the Common Tamil Candidate, P. Ariyanenthiran of the Tamil National Common Structure alliance. The IIAK announcement was soon repudiated and is now expected to be reversed in favour of Mr. Ariyanenthiran. That could have consequences for the election. All in all, it is quite a pathetic manifestation of self-determination.

“The Father of Socialism in Ceylon”

(Excerpted from NM – in his own words; as seen by others Edited by Prof. Colvin Goonaratna)

In a very real sense, Philip was the father of scientific socialism in Ceylon. It is true that at the ultimate stage of his life, he faltered and almost rejected his own political origins. But this cannot retract from the great contribution he made to the socialist movement in Ceylon. Literally, the formation of the Lanka Sama Samaja Party he inspired led the movement that became the strongest mass Trotskyist movement in the world. He came to Ceylon after an exciting and eventful career In the United States and in the West European countries.

He was a member of the Communist Party in England. He gradually moved away from Stalinism, and became a member of the left opposition in the Communist movement. He was fascinated by the profound criticism of the regime of Stalin by Trotsky, and accepted the leadership of Trotsky. He was instrumental in forming in England the Trotskyite group among the Ceylonese. It was this group which later founded the Sama Samaja Party in Ceylon.

Even in England, he was a force to be reckoned with. Hyde Park Corner used to reverberate with his thunderous voice. He threw himself wholeheartedly into the strong anti-imperialist movement that raged in England during this period. He collaborated closely with Krishna Menon in the activities of the India League. With all his active political work, he never relaxed his reading habit. I often met him at the British Museum browsing over books.

He had much difficulty in coming back to his homeland. The British Government no doubt inspired by the colonial set-up here put every obstacle in the way of his return to Ceylon. Eventually, he did succeed in reaching Ceylon early in 1932. I believe Colvin came thereabouts; Leslie a few months later.

But I returned only in 1933 September. Already, by the time I reached Ceylon, political work had been set on foot by Philip with his customary energy. A number of meetings had been conducted, moribund youth leagues had been resuscitated, and all manner of people had been canvassed to enlist support for the anti-imperialist struggle.

Philip had sufficient realism to understand that at this early stage, it was necessary to get the broad sympathy of all those to whom the independence of Ceylon was dear. Men in various walks of life, men who held divergent views on politics, but men who showed by their speeches or their actions that they were dissatisfied with the colonial set-up were all visited and urged to lend their support to the cause of independence. He was not averse to meet Mr. A. E. Goonesinha. With equal alacrity, he met Mr. Goonesinha’s opposite, Mr. R.Saravanamuttu.

We started the ‘Kamkaruwa’ paper. It did not sell at all. This is not surprising. Indeed, we were speaking a new language to the people. When Philip came on the scene, politics was still the prerogative of the educated and the rich. The common man had no place in the political life of the country. Most public meetings were held not in Sinhala, but in English. Almost all the so-called political leaders spoke to a select few who attended the meetings, in English. The capitalist press ignored us completely. We were not even worth a derisive comment.

Philip was not discouraged. Every conceivable opportunity was taken to get across the anti-imperialist message to the people. With rare courage, Philip chased after the Jayatilake-Senanayake combination and held meetings in the wake of the Reformist gatherings. Philip found in (his brother) Robert an able lieutenant, I may borrow an analogy from the Army. Philip was the Chief of Staff and Robert the General in the field. This collaboration worked effectively for a long time until the break took place in 1952 between the brothers.

The Suriya Mal Movement gave a rare opportunity to flood the country with anti-imperialist literature and meetings Philip was in his real element. In these early days, the very thunderous voice of Philip was an attraction and people came to listen to him for the pleasure of harkening to his voice. I am sure they went away galvanized by the dynamism of the man and the sincerity of his thoughts and feelings.

By this time we had also started building up trade unions. History will no doubt accord to him his rightful place in the political life of this country. In the years to come when lesser mortals like us have played their evanescent part and vanished into the limbo of the forgotten, a grateful socialist Ceylon will remember him with pride and place him on the worthy pedestal due to him.

The first break came with the strike of the workers of the Wellawatte Spinning and Weaving Mills. Motor workers, then scattered under different bus Mudalalis, peasant organizations particularly of the Hewagam Korale, in all these, Philip was the directing force. His advice and guidance were invaluable. His judgment was almost uncanny in its correctness.

Towards the end of 1934, the whole country was plunged into a malaria epidemic of unprecedented proportions. Thousands and thousands of people died. This epidemic disclosed the terrific apathy of the bureaucratic machine, the callousness of those at the helm of affairs, and the dire poverty consequent to the great depression of 1930. The Suriya Mal Movement went into action. We collected volunteers, distributed foodstuffs, clothes, and medicine in all affected areas. Harrowing tales of the poverty and the sufferings of the people kept ringing in our ears.

In this campaign, Philip, as usual, was the dynamo of activity. A special tribute must be paid to the work done by Dr. S. A. Wickramasinghe during this epidemic. With the termination of the anti-malaria work of the Suriya Mal stalwarts, this group of young political enthusiasts led by Philip was ready to launch the political party. On December 17, 1935, the Lanka Samasamaja Party was officially launched. With characteristic ability he pushed forward Colvin as the President, but we were only too conscious of the fact that Philip was the leader of the movement.

I would here like to place on clear record that were it not for Philip, I would never have contested the Ruwanwella seat. Were it not also for the constant encouragement and help that I received from Philip and Robert, Ruwanwella could never have been won by me at this first election in 1936. Philip fought Avissawella. I fought Ruwanwella. Both of us won. Dr. Wickramasinghe re-contested Morawaka and lost. So did Leslie Goonewardene who fought Panadura for the first time against Susantha de Fonseka.

We were the two Samasamajists of the Second State Council and we were affectionately or otherwise dubbed the political Siamese twins. We worked together harmoniously till 1954 when Philip decided to break away from the re-organized and re-united LSSP and thus were put asunder nearly 20 years of close personal friendship.

More than one article is required to speak of Philip and his activities. I hope, someday, I will be spared the time to do justice to Philip. We became the terrible twins and the scourge of the Jayatilakas and Senanayakes . We fought them not only in the House but also outside. With the help of the colonial bureaucracy, they tried to silence me. They locked us up in jail on April 17, 1940, Philip, Colvin, Edmund and myself. Leslie they were never able to find.

When the Japanese bombed Ceylon, our plans to break jail had matured. In this escape, Robert Gunawardane, Doric de Souza and the late Reggie Senanayake played key roles. We hid for some time in Colombo and eventually Philip and I escaped to India. We lived for some time there before we were caught. I earned sufficiently as Secretary to a Bank to keep some of the other comrades going.

Eventually, we were traced and followed. One night, I took train to Ahamedabad to join Rabindranath Tagore, and escaped the vigilance of the Police. Philip took over my flat as his own flat was no longer safe. But that very night, Police raided my flat and took Philip into custody. I was traced to Ahamedabad and was caught before I could get to Tagore. We spent about six months in Indian gaols together. Then we were brought back to Ceylon, tried for breaking jail and sentenced to six months’ rigorous imprisonment. Both of us husked coconuts in jail, and learnt to rattan chairs.

At the end of our term of imprisonment we joined the other comrades in Badulla detention camp. We were released from Badulla in August 1945. Unfortunately, when we came out of jail dissension had crept into the Party and it was divided into two. Various efforts were made to bring the two sections together. Eventually in 1954, we succeeded in re-combining our forces, but then Philip fell out.

He took a turn which led him to the formation of a new organization called the Mahajana Eksath Peramuna, which subsequently joined forces with Mr. S.W.R.D. Bandaranaike, and contested the elections of 1956 as one United Front. From 1956 our paths diverged and our estrangement grew wider.

With the defeat of this coalition in the elections of March 1965, Philip joined hands with Mr. Dudley Senanayake and became the Minister of Industries in that Cabinet. During the period 1965-1970, erstwhile friends of 20 years became almost bitter enemies, many harsh words were spoken both by me and by him.

I am sure he has forgotten and forgiven as I have done. I will always remember him as the firm friend who created the Socialist movement in Ceylon. It is this image of the implacable foe of exploitation, the arch enemy of imperialism, the great protagonist of a new social order, that Philip will continue to abide in our memory for all time.

NPP/JVP Presidential candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake has assured Sri Lanka’s business community that his party will prevent any further collapse of the present economy.Speaking at the NPP Business Forum held at Monarch Imperial in Sri Jayawardenepura Kotte last Tuesday, Dissanayake said that the party’s consensus with the people is to stabilise, strengthen, and advance the economy.

Commenting on concerns about rivals attempting to create fear and panic about an economic downturn if the NPP comes to power, Dissanayake said the party’s first promise is to prevent any further collapse of the existing economic situation.

The event was attended by a large number of Sri Lankan business people from both within the country and abroad, as well as foreign investors, professionals, academics, and other stakeholders.

Dissanayake said that for the first time in the country’s history, the economy is at the centre of political and election debates.

He remarked that the economic collapse has compelled both citizens and political forces to engage in a meaningful discussion about economic issues. He said in response, the NPP is now presenting its economic policies for public review ahead of the election.

Among those who attended the NPP forum included D. Samson and Sons Ltd. Emeritus Chairperson Desamanya Nandadasa Rajapaksa, John Keells Holdings PLC Chairperson Krishan Balendra, Desamanya Sohli Captain, Ceylon Chamber of Commerce Chairperson Duminda Hulangamuwa, National Chamber of Commerce President Deepal Nelson, Chamber of Young Lankan Entrepreneurs President Thushira Radella, Sri Lanka United National Businesses Alliance Chairperson Tania Abeysundara, Hiran Cooray of Jetwing Symphony/Lighthouse Hotel PLC and many other business leaders.

Excerpts of AKD’s speech:

Voting influence and economic stability

For the first time in this election, economic issues are at the forefront of voters’ minds. In the past, elections have often revolved around topics such as war, race, or religion. However, certain right-wing factions are spreading false fears about another economic collapse, which is causing unnecessary turbulence in the stock market. Contrary to these claims, the NPP is set to take power for the first time, and we are committed to making careful economic decisions to ensure stability and progress. We will not allow the economy to collapse as it did under the leadership of Gotabaya.

Role of the Central Bank

There is ongoing debate regarding the role of the Central Bank. We strongly support its independence, which has been eroded by political interference over the past two decades. While we respect the independence of the Central Bank, we also believe it must play a role in national development and support fiscal policy. Monetary policy alone cannot sustain the economy—it must align with the country’s broader growth objectives, but not be used for political ends. We guarantee to safeguard this independence.

State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs)

The debate over the future of SOEs is critical. We recognize the strategic importance of SOEs in sectors such as energy, telecommunications, and banking. We have a clear plan outlining which entities to retain and which to privatize. Additionally, we will ensure that a robust regulatory body is in place to guarantee fair prices and high-quality essential goods. This is a fundamental responsibility of the government.

Property Rights and Private Sector Growth

There have been baseless rumors suggesting we will take over private property. Let me be clear: we are not following in the footsteps of Saradiel. (Robin Hood)This issue should not even be a topic of discussion in the 21st century. We respect the distinct roles of the government and the private sector. Our government will support private entrepreneurship, making business owners and factory operators the engine of the economy.

Unlocking the Economy

Sri Lanka’s economy is stifled by red tape, outdated laws, and corruption. We will work to remove these obstacles, enabling businesses to thrive and compete in the global value chain. Despite decades of talk about liberalizing the economy, we have never implemented a comprehensive national development plan. Inconsistent policies have left investors uncertain. Meanwhile, while countries like South Korea made significant progress, we remain stuck with just $12 billion in exports and a GDP per capita of $3,800.

Data-Driven Development

Economic decisions must be grounded in data, analysis, and predictions. Yet, our country continues to rely on superstition when making business decisions. The global economy will advance based on informed choices, and we will provide the necessary market data to identify growth opportunities. Our administration will not expand the state apparatus for political purposes but will focus on addressing critical gaps in education and healthcare. By streamlining government services, we will ensure businesses receive the support they need to grow.

We also understand the challenges facing MSMEs, many of which collapsed during recent crises. Rebuilding existing businesses is more effective than starting new ones from scratch. We will address the current issues with the Parate Law and implement relief measures, as well as establish a development banking system to help businesses recover.

 Building Knowledge and Investing in Education

The latest advances in knowledge and technology are being developed abroad, and we will send 200 of Sri Lanka’s top students to leading global universities. They will return with the expertise needed to support local industries. At the same time, we will invest in education, building human capital to meet both domestic and global skill demands.

Emphasizing Research and Development

The future of the global economy will be driven by technological innovation, and this is why we will invest in research and development. We have a dedicated policy to foster innovation and entrepreneurship, crucial for Sri Lanka’s growth.

Strengthening Diplomatic Services

We will revitalize our diplomatic services to seek out new markets and partnerships, providing Sri Lankan businesses with expanded opportunities on the global stage.

Energy as a Competitive Advantage

We are committed to lowering energy costs by one-third within a few years, as energy will play a crucial role in our competitive future. The global shift toward renewable energy is undeniable, and Sri Lanka has ten times the renewable energy capacity it currently utilizes. We will invite private investment to develop this sector further.

The Importance of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

To advance our economy, we need foreign direct investment (FDI). Despite claims of a liberalized economy, political leaders have failed to attract significant FDI since 1977, with only $22 billion accrued, while Vietnam brings in $22 billion annually. We will actively pursue FDI for capital, technology, and market access, providing similar benefits to local investors as well.

Collaboration Is the Way Forward

We do not expect even a glass of water from you. Your desire to see this nation develop aligns with our commitment to responsible governance. For the first time, let’s create a country where the needs of the government and the private sector are united. Together, we can form an alliance that drives Sri Lanka’s future success.