Pakistan’s habitual desperate net-run-rate calculations towards the tail-end of a group stage have thrown up another classic. In what is a dead-rubber for already-eliminated hosts Sri Lanka, Pakistan have been given a faint shot at staying alive in the T20 World Cup,  thanks to a surprise comeback win for England over New Zealand. New Zealand boast a vastly superior net run rate (1.390) to Pakistan’s (-0.461), so for Salman Agha’s men to progress to the semi-finals, they must win today [Saturday]  by around 64 runs, or chase any Sri Lankan target in about 13.1 overs. Those, for Pakistan, are the only numbers that matter in Pallekele.

That should, in theory, change the somewhat conservative approach they have taken through the middle overs. Frankly put, Babar Azam’s place in this T20I set-up was getting hard enough to argue for in regular T20I circumstances, but within these constraints is borderline unjustifiable. He, however, is not the only player whose strike-rate ceiling is limited, with captain Salman Agha similarly struggling this tournament, and indeed over the broader span of his T20I career.

However, Pakistan are yet to show any evidence of an ability to rack up a win of that sort of scale at this tournament so far. Indeed, Pakistan have never won by that margin against a Full Member at a T20 World Cup when batting first, and only once – in 2009 – when chasing. The slower surfaces of Sri Lanka compared to the flatter pitches in India make a path to such a victory more complicated, as does a Pakistani middle order that doesn’t boast elite power hitting, and Saim Ayub’s faltering form. But it’s a chance nonetheless, and at ICC events, sometimes that’s all Pakistan ask for.

Will Jacks rode the confidence he has gleaned from a breakthrough global tournament, while Rehan Ahmed landed feet-first in the competition with a crucial display of youthful bravado, as England found the gumption to outmuscle New Zealand in a gripping, spin-dominant encounter in Colombo, to march into the semi-finals with their first real statement win of the campaign.

It was a dead rubber from England’s perspective, but it was anything but for New Zealand. They remain odds-on to reach the last four unless Pakistan can pull off a massive win over Sri Lanka in their own group finale on Saturday night. But this was their chance to progress on their own terms, and when England had slumped to 117 for 6 at the end of the 17th over, with Jos Buttler’s crisis tournament hitting a new nadir, a target of 43 from 18 seemed outlandish to say the least.

The winning boundary came via Jacks’ grille with three balls to spare, and was greeted with a shrug of the shoulders as he prepared to claim his fourth Match award of the campaign, but the decisive onslaught had come two overs earlier, in Glenn Phillips’ fourth and final burst of a compelling all-round game.

Phillips had previously chipped in with the day’s most imposing knock, 39 from 28 in New Zealand’s hard-grafting innings of 159 for 7, and if his first-ball dismissal of a rampant Harry Brook hadn’t been the decisive blow of the chase, then his stunning diving catch at deep midwicket off Jacob Bethell, to leave England 58 for 4 in the ninth over, seemed to have wrecked any remaining hopes.

But, after Tom Banton’s 33 from 24 had kept England afloat through the middle overs, Jacks and Rehan combined to rampage through the finish line. Rehan, making his tournament debut in place of Jamie Overton, crashed Phillips over long-on for six before Jacks launched him over midwicket, then closed out a 22-run over with back-to-back fours.

Rehan then greeted Mitchell Santner, hitherto so frugal for New Zealand, with an exceptional reverse-sweep for four more, and when he charged down the track to his final ball with a gung-ho swing for a second six over long-off, the requirement had been obliterated to five from the final six.

England’s latest power failure

The winning hit came off Matt Henry, in his final involvement before flying home for paternity leave, and what a hole he will leave at the top of New Zealand’s bowling card. He has spent the past few winters making mincemeat of Zak Crawley’s figures across formats, and today he scarcely needed to deviate from his tried-and-tested to leave England’s run-chase in the mire.

Phil Salt had no answer to Henry’s each-way movement from a full, zippy length: a big first-ball inducker induced the nervy poke that got him off the mark through deep third, and set up the knockout punch. A wonderful bat’s-width seamer, shaping in on off and zipping away, to snick the edge through to Seifert.

Salt had been one half of England’s proudest asset coming into this tournament. Buttler had been the other, but what is there left to say about his ghastly state of mind as a run of 15 runs in five innings culminated in a second-ball duck? In mitigation, Lockie Ferguson’s hard lines might have done for many a batter, as he found good lift from back of a length to wreck Buttler’s attempts to be proactive.

At 2 for 2 after eight balls, the chase seemed dead before it had begun. Brook, however, relishes such opportunities to throw caution to the wind, and risk utter calamity for a shot at a reboot. In his new berth at No.3, he opened with an air shot to close out Henry’s opening over, and was all at sea for the start of his second. So Brook, naturally, galloped down the pitch once more to slam his first boundary through long-off, then knelt into a simply outrageous scooped six that smashed the LED screens in the square-leg scoreboard.

It was too good to last, but in the wake of his solo century against Pakistan, it was another front-running example of the bravery that Brook has repeatedly demanded throughout this stuttering campaign. Rachin Ravindra’s mid-innings haul of 3 for 19 in four overs suggests that there’s still a cloying degree of reticence to do away with. By the back end of the same innings, Jacks and Rehan had served up evidence that his team are actually primed to answer the call.

Powerplay predictability

While England in general have struggled to get themselves going, Jofra Archer has been hiding in plain sight at the top of the bowling card: habitually hitting the high 140kphs, while easing into a rhythm that has now justified three powerplay overs in every innings since the win over Scotland, five games ago.

Today, he opened the match with a 124kph slower ball to Tim Seifert, but that was the only respite he was willing to offer in a breathlessly aggressive introduction. Seifert danced at the crease for the rest of his maiden over, but could barely lay bat on ball (fortunately so, given the successfully reviewed caught-behind that spared him a five-ball duck).

The only dent in Archer’s first two overs came when Finn Allen connected with a slower ball (the last he would bowl) and the temptation to stick to the formula was overwhelming. Not for the first time, Brook slipped into predictability with his bowling options, and Seifert was waiting to cash in for Archer’s third over: anchored on the back foot, anticipating the heat, and carving two fours and a six over midwicket. By the time Sam Curran’s slower ball had also been launched over long-on, New Zealand had marched to 54 for 0 in the powerplay, and that impact up top had been wasted.

Spin for the squeeze

Archer aside, Brook’s faith in his spinners has been unwavering, and for the rest of the innings it was amply justified. Until he took over as captain, England had never bowled more than 11 overs of spin in any T20I. Now, they have bowled 11-plus in seven different matches on Brook’s watch, including this new record, 16, breaking their previous high of 15.3 set in Pallekele earlier this month.

From Adil Rashid in the seventh to Rehan in the 20th, England did not even countenance a return to their seamers, as New Zealand’s under-functioning middle-order endured another gruelling day.

Rashid struck first, moments after being slog-swept for six over deep midwicket. His next ball was tossed up fuller, straighter, slower … and Seifert galloped past his swish for Buttler to pull off a neat stumping. And, with that early evidence that the ball was sticking and climbing off the surface, Jacks’ leaping lollipops were the obvious go-to. He may look hittable but he gives it a rip, and Allen duly pinged his fourth ball straight to deep midwicket.

Brief scores:
England 161 for 6 in 19.3 overs  (Harry Brook 26, Jacob Bethell 21, Tom Banton 33, Sam Curran 24, Will Jacks 32*, Rehan Ahmed 19*; Matt Henry 1-19, Lockie Ferguson 1-14, Glenn Phillips 1-43,  Rachin Ravindra 3-19) beat New Zealand 159 for 7 in 20 overs (Glenn Phillips 39, Tim Seifert 35, Finn Allen 29, Rachin Ravindra 11, Mark Chapman 15, Cole McConchie 14; Liam Dawson 1-32, Adil Rashid 2-28, Will Jacks 2-23, Rehan Ahmed 2-28) by four wickets

[Cricinfo]